Temporal Variation In Recruitment Research Articles

Advancing Environmental Flows Science: Hindcasting and Forecasting Flow–Ecology Relationships

To advance current environmental flow standards in Texas, we developed field, laboratory, and analytical methods to model recruitment dynamics of indicator species selected to cover a range of population responses to flow variation. Preliminary investigations were conducted in three central Texas river basins to evaluate the feasibility of these methods for formulating and evaluating the state's environmental flow standards. Age analysis allowed back‐calculation of dates of fish hatching, mussel recruitment, and tree germination for estimation of temporal variation in recruitment. Recruitment data were then analyzed in relation to flow regime components. Statistical models were derived for flow–recruitment relationships of Shoal Chub Macrhybopsis hyostoma, Smallmouth Buffalo Ictiobus bubalus, threeridge mussel Amblema plicata, and boxelder Acer negundo. The Shoal Chub model was used to hindcast recruitment dynamics in the Brazos River, revealing a decline in recruitment after dam construction. The Smallmouth Buffalo model revealed that strong year‐classes were positively associated with springtime pulses of long duration but negatively associated with frequent short‐duration pulses. Results for the threeridge mussel were not as easily interpreted, but for all three river basins generally showed weaker recruitment during periods with extreme low and high flows. The boxelder model revealed positive associations between recruitment and high flow components and was used to forecast the probability of germination under five simulated flow regime scenarios, thereby providing an additional means for evaluating the suitability of environmental flow standards. Assessment of how hydrology influences recruitment provides an evidence‐based method to hindcast responses to past flow regimes and forecast responses to future flow scenarios, thereby providing a basis for evaluating environmental flow standards and water management options.

Stock-recruitment models from the viewpoint of density-dependent survival and the onset of strong density-dependence when a carrying capacity limit is reached

When viewed on a discrete time step (e.g., one year) rather than instantaneously, the Ricker and Beverton-Holt stock recruitment relationships describe a strong influence of changes in adult abundance on juvenile survival even at low biomass levels. In fact, they describe a stronger influence at lower adult abundance than at high adult abundance. This is not consistent with a simplistic interpretation of carrying capacity, where survival reduces more rapidly as the juvenile abundance approaches its carrying capacity due to resource limitation. It implies that other processes (e.g., changes in predation risk with increased abundance as described by arena theory) control density dependence. A simple habitat limitation model suggests that a similar relationship can occur if the number of juveniles produced by the adults is always more than the juvenile carrying capacity. However, the resulting stock-recruitment relationship is constant recruitment, while that of the Beverton-Holt is increasing asymptotically and the Ricker is dome shaped. Fluctuations around an average recruitment level for a wide range of adult abundance levels is common for highly fecund pelagic spawners (e.g., tuna), suggesting that the survival and recruitment relationships implied by the simple habitat limitation model might be appropriate for these species. Underpinning this argument is the concept that the adult population will saturate the juvenile carrying capacity unless the adult population is fished to extremely low levels. However, it is reasonable to expect that survival should be density independent, or possibly even decompensatory, at some low level of adult abundance. Ignoring depensation, the survival relationship would therefore be well described by a general logistic equation where the decline in survival initially accelerates as abundance increases and then deaccelerates. The resulting stock-recruitment relationship would be a hockey stick shape with the possibility of reduced recruitment at large stock sizes. The model could also be used for low fecund species (e.g., sharks) for which the juvenile carrying capacity is not saturated until the adult abundance is large (i.e., survival is density-independent for a wide range of adult population sizes). In our model, particularly for high fecund species, temporal variation in recruitment would be controlled by changes in the juvenile carrying capacity. We provide equations for the generalized logistic survival stock-recruitment model and investigate the yield consequences. We suggest that an important management consideration is the level of adult abundance at which the juvenile carrying capacity becomes saturated (i.e., when does density dependence become influential on juvenile survival).

Considerations for management strategy evaluation for small pelagic fishes

AbstractManagement strategy evaluation (MSE) is the state‐of‐the‐art approach for testing and comparing management strategies in a way that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty (e.g. monitoring, estimation, and implementation). Management strategy evaluation can help identify management strategies that are robust to uncertainty about the life history of the target species and its relationship to other species in the food web. Small pelagic fish (e.g. anchovy, herring and sardine) fulfil an important ecological role in marine food webs and present challenges to the use of MSE and other simulation‐based evaluation approaches. This is due to considerable stochastic variation in their ecology and life history, which leads to substantial observation and process uncertainty. Here, we summarize the current state of MSE for small pelagic fishes worldwide. We leverage expert input from ecologists and modellers to draw attention to sources of process and observation uncertainty for small pelagic species, providing examples from geographical regions where these species are ecologically, economically and culturally important. Temporal variation in recruitment and other life‐history rates, spatial structure and movement, and species interactions are key considerations for small pelagic fishes. We discuss tools for building these into the MSE process, with examples from existing fisheries. We argue that model complexity should be informed by management priorities and whether ecosystem information will be used to generate dynamics or to inform reference points. We recommend that our list of considerations be used in the initial phases of the MSE process for small pelagic fishes or to build complexity on existing single‐species models.

Roughhead grenadier (Macrourus berglax) on the shelf edge of the northeastern Norwegian Sea, 1997–2020: Distribution, abundance, size and age structure, growth

Records of roughhead grenadier (Macrourus berglax) in a time series of bottom trawl surveys along the Norwegian Sea shelf edge off Norway and Spitsbergen (between 68 and 80 °N in ICES subareas 1 and 2) confirmed that the species is widely distributed in the depth range 500−800 m. Abundance consistently declined to low levels towards northern areas along the Spitsbergen shelf. A corresponding decline was not observed towards the south, reflecting that the distribution area extends southwards beyond the sampling area. Throughout the bottom trawl survey time series 1997–2020, abundance and biomass varied without any apparent temporal trend. Size distributions comprised the entire size range and were usually bimodal. The mode of small fish varied and was comparatively high in some years (e.g. 2009 and 2015), suggesting some temporal variation in recruitment. Age distributions and growth data are presented based on data collected in the period 2009−2017.

Long‐term variability and density dependence in Hudson River Dreissena populations

Abstract We used a 27‐year record of Dreissena populations in the freshwater tidal Hudson River to describe interannual variation in population density, body size, and body condition; estimate long‐term variation in recruitment, survivorship, and shell growth; and assess possible controls on the populations. Dreissena populations in the Hudson have been highly variable, with interannual ranges of c. 100‐fold in abundance and biomass, and 7‐fold in mean body mass. This large interannual variation arises from both long‐term trends and 2–5‐year cycles. Long‐term trends include the 2008 appearance of the quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis), which still forms a small part (<10%) of the dreissenid community, and a decline in zebra mussel body size. The decline in body size was caused by a long‐term decline in adult survivorship rather than a decline in rates of shell growth. We could detect no long‐term trends in adult abundance or spread of Dreissena onto soft sediments in the Hudson. We observed persistent, strong cycles in adult abundance and body size. These were driven by the appearance and decay of eight dominant year classes over the 27 years of our study, and were a result of temporal variation in recruitment rather than temporal variation in survivorship. The observed strongly irregular recruitment appears to arise from strong adult–larval interactions, and is consistent with previous simulation model results showing that interactions between adults and larvae can drive persistent cycling. We found evidence that negative density dependence affects recruitment, somatic growth, and body condition of Dreissena in the Hudson. Warm summers may also cause high adult mortality. We put our results into the context of a conceptual model of Dreissena population dynamics, and argue that neither the dynamics nor the controls of populations of these important invaders is known satisfactorily.

Modeling temporal variation in recruitment in fisheries stock assessment: A review of theory and practice

Recruitment is one of the most variable biological processes driving fisheries population dynamics and the characteristics and drivers of the variation differ among stocks. Understanding, describing (modeling), estimating, and predicting (forecasting) this variation is essential to appropriate stock assessment and fisheries management. Most modern stock assessments estimate annual variation in recruitment, particularly those that include age or size composition data. Changes over time are often partitioned into those related to the spawning biomass due to density dependence (the stock-recruitment relationship) and those related to other factors such as environmental conditions. Several methods have been used to model recruitment inside stock assessment models, and they differ by how recruitment is represented and how statistical inference is conducted. Virtual population analyses make few statistical assumptions about recruitment and instead calculate recruitment as the sum of the mortality-adjusted catches of a cohort while surplus production models generally imply a stock-recruitment relationship in their production function. Integrated statistical stock assessment models have modelled recruitment using a stock-recruitment relationship, autocorrelation, a function of covariates, regime shifts, or a combination of these. Statistical inference has typically been conducted using state-space (hierarchical) models, whether using Bayesian or maximum likelihood methods, or inferences are approximated using penalized likelihood approaches, which may not be statistically reliable. All these methods have specific issues that need to be addressed and there are tradeoffs in their use. Future temporal variation also needs to be considered when providing management advice. We review the theory and practice of modelling temporal variation in recruitment in fisheries stock assessment, provide advice on good practices, and recommend important research.

Ophthalmology research in the UK's National Health Service: the structure and performance of the NIHR's Ophthalmology research portfolio.

To report on the composition and performance of the portfolio of Ophthalmology research studies in the United Kingdom's National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network (UK CRN). Ophthalmology studies open to recruitment between 1 April 2010 and 31 March 2018 were classified by: sub-specialty, participant age, gender of Chief Investigator, involvement of genetic investigations, commercial/ non-commercial, interventional/observational design. Frequency distributions for each covariate and temporal variation in recruitment to time and target were analysed. Over 8 years, 137,377 participants were recruited (average of 15,457 participants/year; range: 5485-32,573) with growth by year in proportion of commercial studies and hospital participation in England (76% in 2017/18). Fourteen percent of studies had a genetic component and most studies (82%) included only adults. The majority of studies (41%) enrolled patients with retinal diseases, followed by glaucoma (17%), anterior segment and cataract (13%), and ocular inflammation (6%). Overall, 68% of non-commercial studies and 55% of commercial studies recruited within the anticipated time set by the study and also recruited to or exceeded the target number of participants. High levels of clinical research activity, growth and improved performance have been observed in Ophthalmology in UK over the past 8 years. Some sub-specialties that carry substantial morbidity and a very high burden on NHS services are underrepresented and deserve more patient-centred research. Yet the NIHR and its CRN Ophthalmology National Specialty Group has enabled key steps in achieving the goal of embedding research into every day clinical care.

Climatic conditions produce contrasting influences on demographic traits in a long-distance Arctic migrant.

The manner in which patterns of variation and interactions among demographic rates contribute to population growth rate (λ) is key to understanding how animal populations will respond to changing climatic conditions. Migratory species are likely to be particularly sensitive to climatic conditions as they experience a range of different environments throughout their annual cycle. However, few studies have provided fully integrated demographic analyses of migratory populations in response to changing climatic conditions. Here, we employed integrated population models to demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a short but critical period play a central role in the demography of a long-distance migrant, the light-bellied Brent goose (Branta bernicla hrota). Female survival was positively associated with June North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values, whereas male survival was not. In contrast, breeding productivity was negatively associated with June NAO, suggesting a trade-off between female survival and reproductive success. Both adult female and adult male survival showed low temporal variation, whereas there was high temporal variation in recruitment and breeding productivity. In addition, while annual population growth was positively correlated with annual breeding productivity, a sensitivity analysis revealed that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult survival. Our results demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a relatively short-time window at the start of the breeding season play a critical role in shaping the demography of a long-distant Arctic migrant. Crucially, different demographic rates responded in opposing directions to climatic variation, emphasising the need for integrated analysis of multiple demographic traits when understanding population dynamics.

Patterns of Fish Connectivity between a Marine Protected Area and Surrounding Fished Areas.

Patterns of connectivity and self-recruitment are recognized as key factors shaping the dynamics of marine populations. Connectivity is also essential for maintaining and restoring natural ecological processes with genetic diversity contributing to the adaptation and persistence of any species in the face of global disturbances. Estimates of connectivity are crucial to inform the design of both marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks. Among several approaches, genetic structure is frequently used as a proxy for patterns of connectivity. Using 8 microsatellite loci, we investigated genetic structure of the two-banded sea bream Diplodus vulgaris, a coastal fish that is both commercially and ecologically important. Adults were sampled in 7 locations (stretches of coastline approximately 8 km long) and juveniles in 14 sites (~100 to 200 m of coastline) along 200 km of the Apulian Adriatic coast (SW Adriatic Sea), within and outside an MPA (Torre Guaceto MPA, Italy). Our study found similar genetic diversity indices for both the MPA and the surrounding fished areas. An overall lack of genetic structure among samples suggests high gene flow (i.e. connectivity) across a scale of at least 200 km. However, some local genetic divergences found in two locations demonstrate some heterogeneity in processes renewing the population along the Apulian Adriatic coast. Furthermore, two sites appeared genetically divergent, reinforcing our observations within the genetic makeup of adults and confirming heterogeneity in early stage genetics that can come from either different supply populations or from chaotic genetic patchiness occurring under temporal variation in recruitment and in the reproductive success. While the specific role of the MPA is not entirely known in this case, these results confirm the presence of regional processes and the key role of connectivity in maintaining the local population supply.

Marine ecoregion and Deepwater Horizon oil spill affect recruitment and population structure of a salt marsh snail

AbstractMarine species with planktonic larvae often have high spatial and temporal variation in recruitment that leads to subsequent variation in the ecology of benthic adults. Using a combination of published and unpublished data, we compared the population structure of the salt marsh snail, Littoraria irrorata, between the South Atlantic Bight and the Gulf Coast of the United States to infer geographic differences in recruitment and to test the hypothesis that the Deepwater Horizon oil spill led to widespread recruitment failure of L. irrorata in Louisiana in 2010. Size‐frequency distributions in both ecoregions were bimodal, with troughs in the distributions consistent with a transition from sub‐adults to adults at ~13 mm in shell length as reported in the literature; however, adult snails reached larger sizes in the Gulf Coast. The ratio of sub‐adults to adults was 1.5–2 times greater in the South Atlantic Bight than the Gulf Coast, consistent with higher recruitment rates in the South Atlantic Bight. Higher recruitment rates in the South Atlantic Bight could contribute to higher snail densities and reduced adult growth in this region. The ratio of sub‐adults to adults in Louisiana was lower in 2011 than in previous years, and began to recover in 2012–2014, consistent with widespread recruitment failure in 2010, when large expanses of spilled oil were present in coastal waters. Our results reveal an important difference in the ecology of a key salt marsh invertebrate between the two ecoregions, and also suggest that the Deepwater Horizon oil spill may have caused widespread recruitment failure in this species and perhaps others with similar planktonic larval stages.

North Atlantic demersal deep‐water fish distribution and biology: present knowledge and challenges for the future

This paper summarizes knowledge and knowledge gaps on benthic and benthopelagic deep-water fishes of the North Atlantic Ocean, i.e. species inhabiting deep continental shelf areas, continental and island slopes, seamounts and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. While several studies demonstrate that distribution patterns are species specific, several also show that assemblages of species can be defined and such assemblages are associated with circulatory features and water mass distributions. In many subareas, sampling has, however, been scattered, restricted to shallow areas or soft substrata, and results from different studies tend to be difficult to compare quantitatively because of sampler differences. Particularly, few studies have been conducted on isolated deep oceanic seamounts and in Arctic deep-water areas. Time series of data are very few and most series are short. Recent studies of population structure of widely distributed demersal species show less than expected present connectivity and considerable spatial genetic heterogeneity and complexity for some species. In other species, genetic homogeneity across wide ranges was discovered. Mechanisms underlying the observed patterns have been proposed, but to test emerging hypotheses more species should be investigated across their entire distribution ranges. Studies of population biology reveal greater diversity in life-history strategies than often assumed, even between co-occurring species of the same family. Some slope and ridge-associated species are rather short-lived, others very long-lived, and growth patterns also show considerable variation. Recent comparative studies suggest variation in life-history strategies along a continuum correlated with depth, ranging from shelf waters to the deep sea where comparatively more species have extended lifetimes, and slow rates of growth and reproduction. Reproductive biology remains too poorly known for most deep-water species, and temporal variation in recruitment has only been studied for few deep-water species. A time series of roundnose grenadier Coryphaenoides rupestris recruitment spanning three decades of fisheries-independent data suggests that abundant year classes occur rarely and may influence size structure and abundance even for this long-lived species.

Carry‐over effects of spring hunt and climate on recruitment to the natal colony in a migratory species

Summary In long‐lived species, temporal variation in recruitment, defined as the entry of new individuals into the breeding population, can have a large effect on population growth rate. While hunting, as a management tool, is generally expected to control population size via increased mortality, it may also act by affecting recruitment. Although the impact of hunting on survival is well studied, less attention has been paid to the non‐lethal impacts of hunting on recruitment. To control the population size of the greater snow goose Chen caerulescens atlantica, an overabundant arctic‐nesting species, a spring hunting season was implemented from 1999 onwards in addition to the traditional autumn and winter hunting seasons. We investigated the potential carry‐over effect of spring hunting on recruitment of females to their natal colony on Bylot Island, Nunavut, Canada from 1992 to 2005 while accounting for other potential confounding factors, primarily climatic effects. We applied a multistate capture‐Mark‐Recapture recruitment model to a dataset of known‐age individuals (n = 12 100), combining live recaptures at the breeding colony with dead recoveries from hunters. Annual variation in recruitment probability was best explained by spring hunt and a synthetic variable combining the climatic conditions experienced during migration (extreme values of the North Atlantic Oscillation index) with conditions upon arrival at the breeding grounds (snow cover). This model accounted for 58% of the temporal variation in recruitment, while the harvest rate or the climatic index taken alone accounted for 38% each. In the year with the highest spring hunting pressure (adult harvest rate ≈6%), recruitment was reduced by up to 50% compared to years with no hunt and similar average climatic conditions. Synthesis and applications. We conclude that there was a negative impact of the spring hunt not only on survival but also on recruitment in greater snow geese. These non‐lethal effects of hunting must be considered in management decisions aimed at controlling overabundant populations where recruitment is an important driver of population growth, as occurs in geese. Our study is also relevant to other situations such as in threatened species still exposed to hunting, as consideration of non‐lethal effects of hunting may be critical for their conservation.

Why Fishing Does Not Magnify Temporal Fluctuations in the Population Abundance of Stream-Living Salmonids

The hypothesis that size-selective fishing induces magnified temporal variations in recruitment of fished, relative to un-fished, populations is explored by comparing the recruitment of two stream-resident populations of brown trout Salmo trutta inhabiting two tributaries of Rio Esva drainage (northwestern Spain). One population is exploited by angling; the other has never been fished. Fishing truncated the length structure of the fished population. In some years, fishing extirpated the two older reproductive year-classes (age 2 and 3), and the reproductive potential was limited to the age 1 spawners. Nevertheless, the temporal variation in recruitment over a 20-year period was lower in the fished population. The inter-annual variation in recruitment of the two populations closely tracked inter-annual environmental variation with a parabolic relationship between recruitment and stream discharge. Year-to-year variation in the carrying capacity to sustain recruits implies that annual recruitment only requires the survival of a few spawners to buffer the combined effect of environmental variability and fishing-induced mortality. Conventional fishing theory is not compatible with such processes, suggesting that new strategies are required to make fisheries and conservation goals compatible, with the importance of environmental stochasticity replacing the deterministic character of density-dependent population growth rates inherent to conventional fishery models.

Spatial variation in the demography and population dynamics of a perennial shrub (Atriplex vesicaria) under sheep grazing in semi‐arid Australian rangelands

Abstract Atriplex vesicaria Heward ex Benth. (Chenopodiaceae) is a widespread perennial shrub in southern Australia's chenopod rangelands but is sensitive to grazing. A detailed investigation of the demography and population dynamics of A. vesicaria under sheep grazing was conducted over 6.5 years at a range of sites across a typical paddock to assess the long‐term effects of grazing on the species and elucidate the mechanisms of population change under grazing. The effects of rainfall on recruitment and mortality were also examined. Six‐monthly censuses of all A. vesicaria individuals were conducted in permanent grazed and ungrazed plots at sites located across an 1100‐ha paddock. Grazing increased adult shrub mortality close to water and reduced recruitment over a broader area of the paddock, but seedling survival did not appear to be affected by grazing. As a result of these changes, the population declined on grazed plots up to 2200 m from water during the study, but the decline was greatest closer to water. The population was most dynamic at the sites furthest from the water point where it was unaffected by grazing because of the greater recruitment and mortality of young plants, but because these processes balanced out over time, population density was effectively unchanged by the end of the study. Although statistical models indicated that six‐monthly rainfall did not explain temporal variation in recruitment or mortality, rainfall nevertheless has a central role in both processes. In particular, longer periods of favourable rainfall and drought appear to have an important influence on recruitment and mortality, respectively, with heavy grazing during a drought period increasing mortality. Occasional shortages of seed or rains occurring during the warmer months when seed germination is limited possibly explain poor recruitment at sites unaffected by grazing following good rainfall.

Temporal genetic variation in populations of the limpet Cellana grata from Hong Kong shores

Variations in the relative contributions of gene flow and spatial and temporal variation in recruitment are considered the major determinants of population genetic structure in marine organisms. Such variation can be assessed through repeated measures of the genetic structure of a species over time. To test the relative importance of these two phenomena, temporal variation in genetic composition was measured in the limpet Cellana grata, among four annual cohorts over 10 years at four rocky shores in Hong Kong. A total of 408 limpets, comprising individuals from 1998, 1999, 2006 and 2007 cohorts were screened for genetic variation using five microsatellite loci. Minor but significant genetic differentiation was detected among samples from the 1998/1999 collection (FST = 0.0023), but there was no significant differentiation among the 2006/2007 collection (FST = 0.0008). Partitioning of genetic variation among shores was also significant in 1998/1999 but not in the 2006/2007 collection, although there was no correlation between genetic and geographic distances. There was no significant difference between collections made in 1998/1999 and 2006/2007. This lack of clear structure implies a high level of gene flow, but differentiation with time may be the result of stochastic recruitment variation among shores. Estimates of effective population size were not high (599, 95% C.L. 352–11397), suggesting the potential susceptibility of the populations to genetic drift, although a significant bottleneck effect was not detected. These findings indicate that genetic structuring between populations of C. grata in space and time may result from spatio-temporal variation in recruitment, but the potential development of biologically significant differentiation is suppressed by a lack of consistency in recruitment variability and high connectivity among shores.

Factors affecting recruitment dynamics of Great Lakes sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus) populations

Knowledge of stock–recruitment dynamics is as important for control of pest species such as the sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus) as it is for sustainable harvest management of exploited fish species. A better understanding of spatial and temporal variation in recruitment of pest populations may inform managers on where and when to effectively apply different control methods. Sea lamprey stock–recruitment data combined from streams across the Great Lakes basin into a Ricker stock–recruitment model indicated both compensation (density-dependent survival) and a large amount of density-independent recruitment variation. We evaluated the use of a mixed-effects model to look at common year effects and stream-level variables that could affect productivity and growing season length, with the objective of identifying factors that may explain this density-independent variation in recruitment. After selecting the “best model”, we tested factors that might affect recruitment variation, using a Great Lakes dataset comprising 97 stream–years. Lake Superior tributaries, streams with larger numbers of lamprey competitors, and streams regularly requiring lampricide treatment showed significantly higher recruitment. Alkalinity and thermal regulation did not affect the observed recruitment pattern among streams. In four long-term study streams we observed significant variation among streams, tested as a fixed effect, but no evidence suggested a common pattern of variation among years. Differences in recruitment among streams were consistent with evidence of quality of spawning and larval habitat among streams. Our findings suggest that management models should account for differences in recruitment dynamics among sea lamprey-producing streams, but not common year effects.

The antifouling performance of gelcoats containing biocides and silver ions in seawater environment

In this study, the recruitment and succession of biofilms were examined on static panels representing a boat hull exposed to seawater. Panels were coated with five types of gelcoats to compare the effect of antifouling agents on the forming of biofilms. Pesticide and elemental silver-based additives in two weight ratios (0.003 and 0.006) were used as the antifouling agents for the gelcoat. The temporal variation in recruitment of biofilms was examined by isolation of attached bacteria during a boat storing period in a marina located along the Izmir Bay (Turkey). It was found that the gelcoat with silver ion had slight superiority over the counterparts in this study. The first 15 days of bacteria formation was the significant period for examining the antifouling performance of a coating material.

ASSESSING TIGER POPULATION DYNAMICS USING PHOTOGRAPHIC CAPTURE–RECAPTURE SAMPLING

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

INITIAL RECRUITMENT AND GROWTH OF SURFCLAMS (SPISULA SOLIDISSIMA DILLWYN) ON THE INNER CONTINENTAL SHELF OF NEW JERSEY

Abstract Surfclam (Spisula solidissima Dillwyn) larval settlement and the initial growth of recruits were studied on the inner shelf of New Jersey. Initial recruitment was measured by taking weekly benthic core samples during the summer settling season, and larval supply was characterized using meroplankton samples taken every four hours in July. The temporal variation in recruitment at two inshore stations (12-m depth) was linked to larval supply from the water column, and spatial differences (inshore vs. offshore) in recruitment also appeared to be related to larval supply. Spatial and temporal variation in larval concentrations was associated with wind-driven cross-shelf circulation. Contrasting recruitment patterns between the two inshore stations could not be explained by larval supply alone and were likely affected by near-bottom flows. Growth rates of initial surfclam recruits (with initial shell lengths 360 μm shell l...

Effects of temporal dynamics and vertical structure of the seagrassZostera caulescenson distribution and recruitment of the epifaunal encrusting bryozoaMicroporella trigonellata

AbstractSeagrass is an ephemeral habitat for epifaunal sessile invertebrates attaching on seagrass leaves, and spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrasses strongly affect the distribution of epifauna.Zostera caulescensMiki, a seagrass species endemic to Japan, provides a complex habitat for epifauna with two types of shoots: vegetative, less than 1 m tall, and flowering, 5–7 m tall. We conducted monthly field observations and a manipulative field experiment to investigate the effects of the seagrass vertical structure and its temporal variation on the distribution and recruitment of the encrusting bryozoanMicroporella trigonellata. The density ofM. trigonellataon the leaves of flowering shoots, located at the seagrass canopy, varied temporally, reaching maximum in summer and minimum in winter. In contrast,M. trigonellatadensity on the leaves of vegetative shoots near the sea floor was consistently low throughout the study period. Early recruit bryozoans also showed this temporal and vertical variation in density; thus spatial and temporal variation in recruitment determined the distribution of the whole colonies. The field experiment revealed that the recruitment rate ofM. trigonellatawas significantly higher at the higher position of the water column (3 m above the sea floor) than at the lower position (0.5 m) in June. However, the recruitment rate was higher at the lower position in October when most of the flowering shoots started falling down. The temporal change in bryozoan habitat selection is considered to be adaptive to maintain their population on the seagrass leaves that show complex temporal dynamics.