January Temperature Research Articles

Impact of global environmental changes on the range contraction of Eurasian moose since the Late Pleistocene

Climatic oscillations are considered primary factors influencing the distribution of various life forms on Earth. Large species adapted to cold climates are particularly vulnerable to extinction due to the climate changes. In our study, we investigated whether the temperature increase since the Late Pleistocene and the contraction of environmental niche during the Holocene were the main factors contributing to the decreasing range of moose (Alces alces) in Europe. We also examined whether there were significant differences in environmental conditions between areas inhabited by moose in Europe and Asia, that could support the division of moose into western and eastern forms, as suggested by genetic and morphological data. We analysed environmental conditions in locations of 655 subfossil and modern moose occurrences over the past 50,000 years in Eurasia. We found that the most limiting climatic factor for the moose distribution since the Late Pleistocene was July temperature. >90 % of moose records were found in areas where the mean summer temperature was below 19 °C, with July temperatures showing over 3 times narrower interquartile range compared to January temperatures. We identified significant differences in environmental conditions between areas inhabited by the European and Asiatic moose. In Europe, the species occurred in regions with milder climates, higher primary productivity, and more frequently within forest biomes compared to Asiatic individuals. The moose range shifted more in the west-east than in the south-north direction during the Holocene climate warming in Europe. We concluded that although the area of suitable moose habitat has increased since 12–8 ka years BP, as demonstrated by environmental niche modeling, the retreat of A. alces in large areas of Europe was likely caused by anthropogenic landscape change (e.g., deforestation) and overhunting by humans during the late Holocene rather than by climate warming during the Pleistocene to Holocene transition.

Climatic sensitivity and the growth prospects of Silver fir and European larch in the Carpathians in the light of observed climate changes

One consequence of climate change is the rapid extinction of spruce monocultures in the Carpathians. Therefore, the need has arisen to replace spruce with other highly productive species that ensure the stability and biodiversity of mountain forests, such as the Abies alba and Larix decidua. These co-occurring conifers show different successional and phenological characteristics: L. decidua is a light-demanding species that dominates in the early successional stages, while A. alba is a shade-tolerant tree. This study attempts to identify climatic factors that determine the tree-ring width of fir and larch in order to assess the growth prospects of these species in the context of the ongoing climate change. As a measure of the vitality of trees, tree-ring widths of 42 sub-populations of fir and 36 of larch from the area of the Western Carpathians were used. Regional growth patterns for each species were used to estimate the relationship between temperature/precipitation and radial growth. Linear correlation analyses and nonlinear Random Forest models were used. Fir growth was significantly positively influenced by the high temperature of January–March and July and the high precipitation of February and July of the year of tree-ring formation. Larch growth was positively affected by the high temperature of May and the low precipitation of April and September of the year of tracheid formation. Unlike larch, fir growth increased if May and June of the preceding year were warm. The dominant climatic factor influencing fir growth was February temperature, whereas for larch growth, it was the May temperature of the year of tree-ring formation. Most of the recently observed changes in climatic factors that are important for the growth of both species are favorable. Thus, increasing their share in the Carpathian forests seems fully justified, as this will contribute to the stability, productivity, and biodiversity of the region’s forests.

Potential Changes in Distribution of Major Conifers and Their Seed Mass across Siberia by the Mid-Twenty-First Century in a Warming Climate

Research highlights: At the turn of the 21st century, there were more forest territories found disturbed by both natural processes (climate change, wildfires, insect outbreaks, permafrost thawing, etc.) and anthropogenic interferences (air pollution, clearcuts, etc.). Seed collecting, then growing seedlings in forest nurseries, and then planting seedlings over lost forest areas are the forestry measures needed to restore the forest after disturbances. Goals were to construct bioclimatic models of ranges and seed mass of major Siberian conifers (Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour), Siberian fir (Abies sibirica Ledeb.), Siberian spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.), Siberian larches (Larix sibirica Ledeb., L. gmelini (Rupr) Rupr, and L. cajanderi Mayr.) and Pinus sylvestris L.) and predict their potential change in a warming climate by the mid-century. Methods: Multi-year seed mass data were derived from the literature, seed station data, and were collected in the field. Climate data (January and July data and annual precipitation) were derived from published Russian reference books and websites on climate. Bioclimatic indices (growing degree-days > 5 C, negative degree-days < 0 C, and annual moisture index) were calculated from January and July temperatures and annual precipitation for both contemporary and the 2050s (2040–2060) climates using the general circulation model INM-CM5-0 and two climate change scenarios, ssp126 and ssp585, from CMIP6. Our bioclimatic range models (envelope and MaxEnt models) and regression seed mass models for major conifers were built based on these bioclimatic indices. Additionally, their ranges were limited by the permafrost border, which divided the forest area into the permafrost-free zone, where five conifers are able to grow, and the permafrost zone, where only one conifer, Dahurian larch, is able to survive. Results: Under warmed climates, the ranges of all Siberian conifers would expand 1.5-fold due to the decrease in the permafrost zone, except Dahurian larch, which would lose 5–20% of its coverage due to permafrost retreat. Conifers shifting northward would be slower than predicted only by warmed climates because permafrost would thaw slower than climates would warm. Scots pine may expand by up to 60%, covering dryer lands in the south. Future climates were found to favor seed mass increase for major Siberian conifers and for heavier seed to shift northward. Our major conifers differ by the type of seed dispersal mode: zoochoric, animal (Siberian pine) and anemochoric, and wind-dispersed (other five trees). The seed masses of the five anemochoric conifers varied within the range of 1.5–15 g of 1000 seeds, which is about 40–50-fold less than that of zoochoric Siberian pine. Site climate explained about 28–65% of the seed mass variation for the five anemochoric trees and only 11% for Siberian pine (zoochoric tree). This finding needs additional research to explain the reasons. Conclusions: Warmed climates would favor the expansion of the ranges of major Siberian conifers and their seed mass to be heavier, which would support the high-quality seed production for forest well-being and its restoration in Siberia.

The cooperative effects of November Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover on the Eurasian surface air temperature in January–February

AbstractDue to their significant influence on large‐scale atmospheric circulation and climate anomalies, the variability of Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover during late autumn and their combined effects have garnered increasing attention. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism underlying the covariation among the Barents‐Kara Seas (BKS) sea ice concentration (SIC), Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) and the ensuing winter Eurasian surface air temperature (SAT). The statistics results of singular value decomposition suggest a significant linkage between the decreased BKS SIC, zonal “negative–positive” dipole SCE anomalies over Eurasia in November and cold Eurasian SAT in January–February (JF). Observational diagnosis analyses about the meridional moisture, heat transport and surface heat flux demonstrate that subpolar Eurasian anticyclonic circulation plays a crucial role in connecting the predominant modes of SIC and SCE. Furthermore, the BKS SIC and Eurasian SCE anomalies can jointly excite upward‐propagating planetary waves into the stratosphere, while simultaneously reducing the subpolar meridional temperature gradient. This results in westerly wind deceleration and favours the continuous planetary wave propagation. Consequently, the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly weakened, along with negative Northern Annular Mode anomalies propagating downward from the stratosphere to troposphere. Negative‐phase Arctic Oscillation anomalies correspondingly develop during JF, resulting in widespread cold anomalies over the Eurasian continent. These results are further confirmed by numerical sensitivity experiments from the Community Atmosphere Model forced by the above mentioned SIC and SCE anomalies. The empirical hindcast model analyses further suggest that the prediction skill of JF Eurasian SAT is enhanced when both the November BKS SIC and Eurasian SCE signals are considered.

Too Cold to Venture There? January Temperature and Immigrant Self-Employment Across the United States

Immigrants in the United States have higher self-employment rates than native-born Americans. However, immigrant self-employment rates vary considerably across areas of the country. The authors examine the percentage of immigrant workers in local areas who are self-employed (i.e., the self-employment rate for the foreign born). Areas with colder winter temperatures have especially low self-employment rates among their immigrant populations compared to warmer areas. The relationship between winter temperature and immigrant self-employment persists after controlling for numerous individual and local area characteristics. The relationship holds for numerous subsamples of immigrants but is strongest for immigrants arriving to the United States as adults. Child immigrants and native-born Americans exhibit a weaker relationship, possibly because of previous exposure and attachment to particular locations chosen by their parents that constrain the migration responses of potential entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurial immigrants arriving to the country as adults appear especially footloose and particularly responsive to January temperatures in their location decisions.

Interactive and lag effects of environmental factors on the density of schistosome-transmitting Oncomelania hupensis: A twelve-year monthly repeated survey.

Schistosomiasis is a significant public health threat, and Oncomelania hupensis is the only intermediate host for schistosoma japonicum. We conducted 12-year monthly repeated surveys to explore the interactive and lag effects of environmental factors on snail density and to monitor their long-term and seasonal trends in a bottomland around the Dongting Lake region in China. Relevant environmental data were obtained from multiple sources. A Bayesian kernel machine regression model and a Bayesian temporal model combined with a distributed lag model were constructed to analyze interactive and lag effects of environmental factors on snail density. The results indicated the average annual snail density in the study site exhibited an increasing and then decreasing trend, peaking in 2013. Snail densities were the highest in October and the lowest in January in a year. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and water level were the most effective predictors of snail density, with potential interactions among temperature, precipitation, and NDVI. The mean minimum temperature in January, water level, precipitation and NDVI were positively correlated with snail density at lags ranging from 1 to 4 months. These findings could serve as references for relevant authorities to monitor the changing trend of snail density and implement control measures, thereby reducing the occurrence of schistosomiasis.

A comparison of plant macrofossil-based quantitative climate reconstruction methods: A case study of the lateglacial Baltic States

The recent advancements of new quantitative tools compatible with plant macrofossil proxy data have revived its potential for paleoclimate research. Plant macrofossils are commonly used in so-called indicator-species approaches, using methodologies that are typically built on known observations linking modern plant distributions with climate. This allows complementary paleoclimate reconstructions using an approach that is not limited by the spatial availability of calibration samples obtained from surface sediments (e.g., pollen or chironomids).We aim to evaluate the impact that various methodological choices have on the plant-macrofossil based reconstructions of January and July temperature patterns for the Lateglacial (14–11 ka BP) period. We use a variety of classic and novel quantitative climate reconstruction algorithms with plant macrofossil assemblages from 13 sites of the Baltic States. We use unfiltered plant data to evaluate the ability of each method to also handle the presence of plants that might have a weak sensitivity to temperature. Additionally, we test the influence of another methodological choice – the choice of modern calibration region – on the reconstructed climate.Our findings indicate that, with no prior filtering of summer and winter-sensitive plants, temporal temperature variations can be reconstructed with methods that implement probability density functions. Although some disparities in reconstructions are seen between the tested algorithms, we note that the choice of calibration region bears a greater influence on the results. A calibration region that best represents the past environment should be chosen rather than one representing the same spatial extent as the fossil site(s). Moreover, for long-term reconstructions, a “dynamic calibration set” approach should be considered in future studies by using a range of calibration regions and mirroring the continuously changing broadscale environmental regime of the past.

Temperature and palaeolake evolution during a Middle Pleistocene interglacial–glacial transition at the Palaeolithic locality of Schöningen, Germany

The Middle Pleistocene Reinsdorf sequence at the Lower Palaeolithic sites of Schöningen offers the opportunity to reconstruct a rarely well‐preserved post‐Holsteinian environmental transition from an interglacial into a glacial phase along with its highly dynamic interjacent climatic oscillations. Combining biological proxies, element composition and stable isotope ratios of two lakeshore sequences at excavation site 13 II, we demonstrate repeated variations in climate, hydrology and catchment vegetation cover. New ostracod‐based quantitative mean summer and winter air temperature reconstructions with the Mutual Ostracod Temperature Range (MOTR) method provide the first detailed information about the temperature evolution. The interglacial temperature maximum, probably corresponding to Marine Isotope Stage 9e, is followed by a first dry phase and, during the younger part of the Reinsdorf sequence, by a second dry period. Both were marked by lower precipitation/evaporation ratios, reduced vegetation cover in the catchment and increased surface inflows from springs. Temperature reconstructions of these two steppe (open woodland) phases yield very narrow ranges for mean January (−4–0 °C) and July (+17–19 or +17–21 °C) air temperatures, demonstrating that, while summers were similar to those of today, winters were at least 1 °C colder, hinting at a more pronounced continental climate. Precise temperature estimates for the interjacent woodland and steppe (woodland) phase are hindered by generally wider ranges produced by the MOTR method (January mean −4–3 °C, July mean +15–21 °C). The development of a more extensive vegetation cover, reducing surface runoff and erosion in favour of increased river and groundwater discharge, as indicated by a shift in microfossil and stable isotope records, suggests generally more humid climates with higher precipitation/evaporation ratios as well as reduced seasonal temperature variations.

Assessment of Climate Adaptability in the Late-Maturing Citrus Industry in Sichuan Province

Sichuan Province is the largest inland area for late-maturing citrus fruit production in China, and its climate conditions are a primary consideration for the cultivation of late-maturing citrus fruits. Based on meteorological data from 2010 to 2020 for the 18 prefecture-level cities and autonomous prefectures in Sichuan Province that cultivate late-maturing citrus fruits, along with the traditional method of dividing the advantages of citrus and the calculation of comparative advantage using factor endowment coefficients, we identified the annual average temperature, annual accumulated temperature ≥ 10 °C, average temperatures in July and January, annual precipitation, and annual sunshine hours as input indicators. We selected the resource endowment coefficient as the output indicator and used the DEA–Malmquist index model to evaluate the climate adaptability of Sichuan’s late-maturing citrus fruit industry. The analysis results indicate that the overall climate conditions in Sichuan are suitable for the growth of late-maturing citrus fruits. However, extensive cultivation of similar varieties has led to a decline in resource endowment across different regions. The use of arable land for cultivating late-maturing citrus fruits has also reduced climate adaptability. Policies that contradict climate adaptability do not support sustainable development within Sichuan’s late-maturing citrus fruit industry.

Thermal design of insulation on the outside of the cavity for a Trombe wall with phase change materials

A Trombe wall with a phase change material (TW-PCM) is a practical and low-carbon passive solar heating method. However, the heat efficiency is not high due to the large amount of heat loss at night. Insulation on the outside of the cavity is a suitable solution, but the design method has not been obtained, which hinders the realization of zero energy buildings. In the present study, we analyzed the thermal performance of a TW-PCM with insulation on the outside of the cavity at nighttime to develop the design approach. A mathematical model was established and validated based on experiments. This model was used to analyze the heat efficiency in different outdoor climates for a TW-PCM with insulation on the outside of the cavity. As well, the solar heating fraction (SHF) was analyzed. The results indicated that insulation on the outside of the cavity could significantly improve the thermal performance due to the reduced heat loss during the nighttime. The recommended additional thermal resistance due to the insulation on the outside of the cavity was negatively correlated with the average outdoor air temperature in January based on the analysis of various climates in China. The thermal resistance of the closed air cavity, formed by the TW-PCM and the insulation component, at the same wall emissivity was similar under the recommended additional thermal resistance in different outdoor climates. The SHF was improved significantly for the TW-PCM buildings with insulation on the outside of the cavity and it had a linear relationship with the solar heating load ratio (SLR).

Analysis of the occurrence of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, in the winter season on the southwestern islands of Japan using the insect's strontium radiogenic isotope ratio (87Sr/86Sr)

AbstractSpodoptera frugiperda, an invasive pest insect that targets maize and other crops, first arrived in Japan in the summer of 2019. This species occurs year‐round in East Asian subtropical regions such as southern mainland China and the island of Taiwan, where the mean air temperature in the coldest month is above 10°C. Adults are similarly found throughout the year on the southwestern islands of Japan. Trap monitoring there showed continuous or intermittent S. frugiperda catches in the three winter seasons since 2019. However, it was difficult to distinguish between immigrants arriving from these neighbouring areas and local individuals occurring on each Japanese island. In this study, the possible natal origin of captured insects on five small islands (Yonagunijima, Taramajima, Okinawajima, Amamioshima and Tanegashima) was determined by investigating the strontium radiogenic isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr) and comparing them with those of reference hosts and insects. Since trapping data and the 87Sr/86Sr values of trapped insects didn't support S. frugiperda's winter breeding on the northernmost island, Tanegashima, further analysis was limited to the four southern islands. The 87Sr/86Sr values of reference host plants and reared insects on the four islands ranged from 0.70929 to 0.71009, while those of catch insects ranged from 0.70885 to 0.71090. The 87Sr/86Sr values of the catch insects and the reference on the four islands did not differ significantly. In addition, the monthly averages of daily mean air temperature in January and February 2020–2022 were above 10°C, and the wind direction at the surface was mostly from the northeast or northwest. These pieces of evidence, together with winter host availability, suggested that S. frugiperda occurs year‐round on the islands. In other words, the year‐round occurrence area of S. frugiperda in East Asia extends to the Japanese southwestern islands below Amamioshima Island.

EARLY HOLOCENE OXYGEN ISOTOPE CHRONOLOGIES (11,267–6420 CAL BP) FROM ICE WEDGE AT CHARA, TRANSBAIKALIA

ABSTRACTAccelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon (AMS 14C) dating was used for determining the age of wedge ice. It has been found that between 11,270 and 6420 cal BP, or the Greenlandian and Northgrippian stages of the Holocene, ice wedges grew syngenetically in sandy deposits with gravel in the Chara River valley. The variations of δ18O values in the ice wedges are about 8‰, from –25.5‰ to –18.8‰. Based on the stable isotope composition of ice wedges, paleotemperature reconstructions revealed that the mean January temperature was as low as –38°C during the coldest periods of the early half of the Holocene and as high as –28°C during the warmer periods.

Response of the cultivation suitability of Pu'er tea (Camellia sinensis var. assamica) to climate conditions and change in China.

Crop cultivation suitability plays a vital role in determining the distribution, quality, and production of crop and can be greatly affected by climate change. Therefore, evaluating crop cultivation suitability under climate change and identifying the factors influencing it can optimize crop cultivation layout and improve production and quality. Based on comprehensive datasets including geographical distribution points, climate data, soil characteristics, and topography, our study employed the MaxEnt model to simulate the potential distribution of Pu'er tea (Camellia sinensis var. assamica) cultivation suitability in Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2020. Furthermore, we assessed the consistency between the simulated suitable areas and the actual production of Pu'er tea. The results showed that precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, and average temperature in January were the three dominant environmental variables affecting the cultivation distribution of Pu'er tea. The high suitable areas for Pu'er tea cultivation in Yunnan Province were mainly distributed in the western and southern regions, accounting for 13.89% of the total area of Yunnan Province. The medium suitable areas are mainly distributed in the central and western regions of Yunnan Province, accounting for 20.07% of the total area of Yunnan Province. Over the past 60years, the unsuitable area for Pu'er tea has increased, while the suitable area has shown a trend of migration to the southwest. Changes in precipitation and temperature were found to be the main drivers of the changes in the distribution of suitable areas for Pu'er tea. We also found a mismatch between the cultivation suitability and the actual production of Pu'er tea. Our study provides an accurate assessment and zoning analysis of the suitability of Pu'er tea cultivation in Yunnan Province, which can help optimize the layout of Pu'er tea cultivation and reduce potential climate risks.

Prediction of Severe Epidemics of Chickpea Ascochyta Blight Using Weather Variables

ABSTRACTChickpea production is threatened by severe epidemics of Ascochyta blight occurring in main chickpea growing lands under appropriate weather conditions worldwide. In this 4‐year research, occurrence of Ascochyta blight was monitored across nine main chickpea growing areas of Kermanshah province, western part of Iran. Each year, commercial chickpea fields were studied on a weekly basis from March to June. Disease data were collected as disease incidence (percentage of infected plants) and severity (percentage of infected tissues) and occurrence of epidemics. Weather data were collected as air temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity (RH) on a daily basis. According to a factor analysis, which explained 83% of data variance, 13 weather predictors were selected to estimate disease epidemics developed across different areas. Before modeling, a principal component analysis determined predictive values for these selected weather variables. Then, eight predictors of rainy days in March and April, mean RH in February, mean minimum temperature in January–March–April, and rainfalls in May and June were involved in model based on their predictive values. Current findings advanced our knowledge on the best weather predictors of severe epidemics of Ascochyta blight in chickpea crops at large scale.

Analysis of the influence of climatic conditions on the tax potential of Russian regions using cluster analysis

The tax burden of the regions is influenced by a whole range of factors, among which it is necessary to take into account the natural and climatic conditions. After all, the specialization of the regions, production capabilities, production volumes and, accordingly, the level of tax revenues to the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation depend on them. The article analyzes the tax potential of regions depending on the climatic factor. The subject of this study is a system of statistical indicators characterizing the natural and climatic conditions of the regions (temperature and precipitation in July and January for three years) and the economic results of their activities, including tax revenues to budgets. The aim of the work is to assess the influence of the climatic factor on the tax potential of the regions using the grouping method of cluster analysis. The research method is cluster analysis (k-means method), implemented using the R programming language and its packages, which allows combining regions according to the similarity in climatic conditions, while minimizing variation within groups and maximizing intergroup differences. The results of the study can be applied in the development of recommendations at the state level on optimizing the tax burden of regions for regions with similar conditions. The novelty of the study lies in the possibility of assessing and comparing the characteristics of regions with similar climatic conditions in terms of tax potential, which is necessary to develop measures for the development of regions and increase their tax potential. As a result of the study, the influence of the climatic factor on the tax potential of the regions and the need to take it into account in combination with other factors is proved.

Modulations of ocean-atmosphere interactions on squid abundance over Southwest Atlantic

Anthropogenic shifts in seas are reshaping fishing trends, with significant implications for aquatic food sources throughout this century. Examining a 21-year abundance dataset of Argentine shortfin squids Illex argentinus paired with a regional oceanic analysis, we noted strong correlations between squid annual abundance and sea surface temperature (SST) in January and February and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) from March to May in the Southwest Atlantic. A deeper analysis revealed combined ocean-atmosphere interactions, pinpointed as the primary mode in a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of SST. This pattern produced colder SST and amplified EKE in the surrounding seas, factors crucial for the unique life stages of squids. Future projections from the CMIP6 archive indicated that this ocean-atmosphere pattern, referred to as the Atlantic symmetric pattern, would persist in its cold SST phase, promoting increased squid abundance. However, rising SSTs due to global warming might counteract the abundance gains. Our findings uncover a previously unrecognized link between squids and specific environmental conditions governed by broader ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Southwest Atlantic. Integrating these insights with seasonal and decadal projections can offer invaluable information to stakeholders in squid fisheries and marine conservation under a changing climate.

Predicting the suitable habitat distribution of berry plants under climate change

ContextClimate change is altering suitable habitat distributions of many species at high latitudes. Fleshy fruit-producing plants (hereafter, “berry plants”) are important in arctic food webs and as subsistence resources for human communities, but their response to a warming and increasingly variable climate at a landscape scale has not yet been examined.ObjectivesWe aimed to identify environmental determinants of berry plant distribution and predict how climate change might shift these distributions.MethodsWe used species distribution models to identify characteristics and predict the distribution of suitable habitat under current (2006–2013) and future climate conditions (2081–2100; representative concentration pathways 4.5, 6.0, & 8.5) for five berry plant species: Vaccinium uliginosum L., Empetrum nigrum L., Rubus chamaemorus L., Vaccinium vitis-idaea L., and Viburnum edule (Michx.) Raf..ResultsElevation, soil characteristics, and January and July temperatures were important drivers of habitat distributions. Future suitable habitat predictions showed net declines in suitable habitat area for all species modeled under almost all future climate scenarios tested.ConclusionsOur work contributes to understanding potential geographic shifts in suitable berry plant habitat with climate change at a landscape scale. Shifting and retracting distributions may alter where communities can harvest, suggesting that access to these resources may become restricted in the future. Our prediction maps may help inform climate adaptation planning as communities anticipate shifting access to harvesting locations.

Changing climate yet healthy forest stand of Tsuga dumosa in temperate zone of central Nepal

Nepal Himalaya is experiencing a faster rate of temperature rise than the global average, and the temperature has altered the growth patterns and distribution of mountain trees. A dendrochronological study was conducted for Tsuga dumosa (D.Don) Eichler to analyze growth-climate relationship from the temperate forest of central Nepal. We developed 116 year-long tree ring width chronology spanning from 1905 to 2020 CE. The study area showed a significant increase in atmospheric temperature and a decrease in rainfall during the past 42 years. It is found that the spring season (March–May) climate is sensitive to the radial growth of T. dumosa. Ring width indices showed a substantial positive correlation with the minimum temperature of January, March, and June of the growth year. Conversely, a negative correlation was observed with the maximum temperature of the previous year's months (July, September, and November), March, and September of the current year, and rainfall during June and November. Basal Area Increment (BAI) trend is positive, indicating the forest is healthy despite the decline in the years 1942, 1978, and 1998. We conclude that the warming of the spring season (March–May), previous year's late growing season and moisture supply (precipitation) during June are critical to the radial growth of Tsuga dumosa in the region. However, responses from multiple species and their exposure to different climate regimes would ideally be required to make predictions on the growth climate relationships of forest trees.

Quantitative methods for reconstruction of the Holocene paleoclimatic characteristics and vegetation changes based on palynological data from lake and peat sediments

The paper presents the results of a methodological study of the quantitative reconstruction of paleoclimatic characteristics (mean January and July temperatures, mean annual temperature and precipitation) and forest cover within a 20 km radius of the study site using palynological data from lake and peat sediments. The following quantitative methods have been tested: the best modern analog technique, transfer functions as weighted averaging, weighted averaging partial least square, and the Random Forest method, a meta estimator that fits a number of decision tree classifiers on various sub-samples of the dataset. A database of subfossil pollen assemblages for northern central Siberia (north of 60°C) was used as a training data set for model construction, containing 174 pollen assemblages, climatic characteristics for the sampling area, and calculations of forest cover based on remote sensing data. Leave-one-out cross validation was appy for testing of the methods. The results showed that all models had the highest coefficients of determination (R2), the smallest errors and the lowest uncertainty for the reconstruction of the mean July temperature. The developed methods were applied to two key sites in Central Siberia, located in the vicinity of Igarka and the settlement of Tura (Krasnoyarsk Region). The results obtained showed similar trends in the changes in palaeoclimatic characteristics reconstructed by different methods, but a rather large variation in temperature and precipitation values at some time intervals.

IRRIGATION TECHNOLOGY FOR TREE CROPS WASTEWATER FROM THE CITY OF KYZYLORDA

The city of Kyzylorda is a River by the international transport corridor "Western Europe-Western China", has convenient transport links with Russia and the republics of Central Asia. The city is located within the Turan lowland, in a desert zone and is characterized by a flat relief. The climate here is one of the main natural factors that shape the living conditions of citizens. Summers are long hot, dry and windy winters with little snow. The average January temperature is –9.4°C, the absolute minimum is –38°C. The average July temperature is +26.3°C, the absolute minimum is +46°C. The soils on the territory of the city of Kyzylorda are very saline. Everywhere salt comes to the surface, in connection with which the soil conditions for the growth of green spaces are severely disturbed. These are the consequences of the Aral Sea catastrophe. The population of the city of Kyzylorda as of 2023 was 315,550 people. At the expense of investors, the manufacturing industries are actively developing in the city - the production of the food industry, building materials, chemical and light industries. In recent years, the volume of the food industry has increased by 2.1 times, the production of plastic products by 9%, the production of the chemical industry -15.1%, etc.