In this paper, we estimated the temperature-dependent critical inclusion size for microcracking under residual stress and applied stress for particulate-reinforced ultra-high-temperature ceramic matrix composites. The critical flaw size and applied stress for the stable growth of radial cracks under different temperatures were also estimated. It was found that under a lower applied stress, the critical inclusion size was sensitive to the temperature. Under higher applied stresses, the sensitivity became smaller. For ceramic materials with pre-existing microcracks, the crack resistance could be improved by increasing the service stress when the service stress was low. As the temperature increased, the critical flaw size of the materials decreased; the applied stress first increased and then decreased. Finally, a temperature-dependent fracture strength model of composites with a pre-existing critical flaw was proposed. A good agreement was obtained between the model prediction and the experimental data. In this work, we show a method for the characterization of the effects of temperature on the fracture behavior of ceramic-based composites.