Telephone Density Research Articles

An assessment of the policy and regulatory outcome by the telecom services users: The emerging economy study

Outcome-based policy evaluation is an established practice in the distributive and redistributive public policies. Such practices are not evident for competitive regulatory policies of telecom, especially in India. This study bridges this research gap by carrying out an outcome-based evaluation of telecom policy and highlighting the importance of such evaluation. Using the methodological pluralism model from Schalock (2002), the outcome of India’s telecom policies was evaluated. Outcome measures from the vision statement of telecom policy were appraised by telecom users by responding to a structured questionnaire-based survey. Factor analysis confirmed that our survey instrument measured the identified policy outcomes. Regression analysis confirmed that users’ appraisal was based on their experiences of telecom services. Against five policy outcome measures, the survey respondents agreed on the achievement of affordability of services: 68.9% of the respondents found telecom services not secure; 74.7% of the survey respondents indicated an issue with quality; 55.6% of the respondents did not agree that the services are available anytime, anywhere. Outcome measures like telephone density (teledensity) as adopted by Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) and Department of Telecommunications (DoT) are not the true representative of policy outcome. A multistakeholder policy evaluation will reveal the actual policy outcomes. International Telecommunications Union (ITU) should establish a standardized framework for outcome-based policy evaluation to address such issues.

686Evaluation of the impact of National Health Mission on maternal health outcomes

Abstract Background The National Health Mission (NHM) was launched in 2005 by the Government of India. As NHM has completed about 15 years (2005-2020), there is a need to review the impact of NHM on health measures. Methods Logic model (input-process-output-outcome-impact) was used to measure the impact of National Health Mission on maternal health outcomes in India. We studied the impact of NHM by comparing the proportion of women who had first-trimester registration, institutional delivery, postnatal check-ups before NHM (NFHS- 3 data) and after NHM (NFHS-4 data) among those who had a delivery in the last five years preceding the date of the survey after adjusting for sociodemographic factors, road density, telephone density and health worker density. Results The Health worker density increased from 32.67 to 50.29 per 10000 population in post NHM period as compared to pre NHM period. Beds per 10,000 population increased from 4.43 in 2005 to 5.96 in 2015. There was a significant increase in the proportion of first-trimester registration from 57.3% to 67.4%, in institutional delivery rate from 41.6% to 87.7% and postnatal check-ups from 42.4% to 72.3% from the year, 2005 to 2015. The Maternal mortality ratio declined from 250 to 130 per lakh childbirths between 2005 and 2015. Conclusions NHM has led to an improvement in maternal health-related outcomes in the country. Key messages The learnings from NHM can be utilized to improve further the outcomes for achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC) by 2030.

Digital divide in Nigeria: The role of regional differentials

This study empirically analyzed the spatial distribution of Internet usage in Nigeria and identified its key determinants using data on the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory from 2016 to 2018. In contrast to previous studies, the approach is disaggregated and spatial to better reflect state level disparities in Internet usage and its associated determinants. The data were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics, United Nations Development Programme Report and other official sources, and were analyzed using stepwise linear regression and Global Moran’s I. The study showed evidence of disparities in Internet usage among the various regions in Nigeria, with noticeable clusters of high values for Internet usage in Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Kaduna, Kano and Abuja. In contrast, Ekiti, Ebonyi and Bayelsa states had low concentrations of Internet users. Across the nation, between the north and south and its urban and rural areas, Internet usage followed various clear economic and social contours. Market size, employment, income, access to electricity, urbanization, gender (female), age (60 years and above) and telephone density were significant factors in Internet usage. The results of this study can provide basis for regional specific policies in order to increase Internet penetration in disadvantaged locations.

Local Economic Impacts of Investments in Community Technology Centers: An Empirical Investigation

The objective of this study is to analyze the local economic impact of investments in community technology centers (CTSs). More broadly, it asks the question whether investments in CTCs are primarily motivated by considerations of equity and social justice, or whether there is an economic rationale that can justify such investments.The community technology center movement has a long pedigree, both in the United States and abroad. Historically, their motivation was to extend information and communication technology (ICT) access and training services to communities and individuals deprived of such services because of low socioeconomic status or lack of digital literacy. In effect, they were seen as universal service programs for those who could not afford household ICT access. However, CTCs also provided a host of services that might have economic consequences: digital literacy training, small business services, job training, etc. These services may cumulatively be expected to have effects on local economic growth, through encouraging small business entrepreneurship, lowering unemployment and enhancing local labor skills. Identifying the magnitude of these economic consequences, if any, is critical to ensuring continuing public support to CTCs.The relationship between telecommunications and economic growth has been long recognized in the economics literature, ever since Jipp’s pioneering work found a positive correlation between telephone density in a country and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By substituting for other production inputs and reducing transaction costs, telecommunications contributes to economic growth. Growth in turn makes more investment capital available for telecommunications development and also contributes to demand by increasing household income. However, establishing a connection between CTC investments and economic growth is harder, and has not been explicitly addressed in the literature. Analysis of the economic consequences of investments in CTCs is also complicated by lack of quality data as well as methodological issues. Data availability is a major concern, since no centralized database of CTC investments exists — most CTCs are run by a wide variety of entities including municipalities and city governments, charitable foundations, industry and trade groups, and public libraries. To solve this problem, we use data on CTCs from two sources that provide information on subsets of all CTCs: data for CTCs attached to public libraries are available from the Institute of Museum and Library Services (IMLS); and data from the National Broadband Map (NBM) for Public Computing Centers (PCCs) funded through the Broadband Technology Opportunities Program (BTOP). The IMLS data tracks individual libraries and PCCs and logs the types of services available at each location, including digital literacy courses and general education assistance. The NMB data includes the periodic reports to the NTIA from recipients of PCC grants about the number of new and improved PCCs, the number of new and upgraded workstations available to the public, hours of operation, average connection speed, primary uses of the PCCs, average users per day, and training provided with BTOP funds. We supplement this with information on broadband availability from the National Broadband Map; and socioeconomic and demographic information from the U.S. Bureau of the Census such as poverty level, average income, average household size of the region, and geographic data such as population and the ratio of the population living in rural areas.In terms of method, models for the economic consequences of ICT and broadband deployment need to account for the simultaneity bias and spurious correlation. The incremental economic effect of CTCs needs to be isolated from that of the availability of broadband and ICTs in the wider community; it needs to rule out reverse causality, namely the tendency of wealthier communities to invest more in all public infrastructures including CTCs; and it needs to control for trends in the overall national and regional economies. Our paper utilizes an econometric model that addresses these methodological issues using appropriate controls and instrumental variables. The outcome of this research will provide inputs into the relative merits of the investments of scarce public resources into CTCs or other public infrastructure investments. It has significant implications for public policies aiming at universal broadband access through middle mile institutions, as well as for the creation of community resources and local development.

Factors Affecting Economic Growth in Africa: Are There any Lessons from China?

Since generating sustained economic growth in Africa remains one of the most pressing challenges to development, it is imperative that Africa-specific determinants of economic growth are investigated. At the same time, in spite of recent slight slowdown, China's economic growth and its capacity to move in thirty years from underdevelopment and extreme poverty to an emerging global economic power had attracted the attention of many developing countries, including those in Africa. Some key questions arise: Can China serve as a growth model for Africa? And what lessons can we draw from the Chinese experience of soaring economic growth? We therefore investigate the determinants of economic growth in Africa (North and sub-Saharan Africa), using an Africa-only sample with five non-overlapping three-year averages of cross-sectional data between 1996 and 2010. We also do the same for China for the period, 1980 to 2010, while discussing recent trade, investment and aid/debt relations between Africa and China. Our results suggest that domestic investment, net ODA inflows, education, government effectiveness, urban population, and metal prices positively and significantly affect Africa's economic growth. For China, the key factors driving its economic growth are domestic investment, trade openness, initial income, and rural share of the population. Factors driving down China's growth include inflation rate, domestic credit to the private sector, net ODA inflows, population growth, telephone density, and oil and agricultural/raw materials prices. One key finding is that while Africa is almost twice as open as China, openness does not positively and significantly affect Africa's growth, unlike in China. A principal source is that Africa imports (mainly consumer goods) more than it exports while the reverse is true for China. Moreover, the structure of Africa's exports is biased towards traditional primary commodity exports unlike China that has rapidly shifted towards manufactures. In addition, Chinese domestic investment is about double that of Africa. The key lessons for Africa from the soaring Dragon's experience are discussed.

Explaining the Development–Civil War Relationship

The vast majority of civil wars occur in economically less developed countries, as measured by GDP per capita. Two suggested explanations for this are prominent: one emphasizing that poverty facilitates rebel recruitment due to lowered economic opportunity cost of rebelling, and the other highlighting that low state reach and capacity give political and military opportunity for organizing insurgency. I argue that the latter account is more powerful. Low state reach is vital not only to rebel survival; it also enables rebels to obtain control over remote settlements, which facilitates the effective use of persuasion, coercion, organization, and economic rewards for mobilizing recruits and other resources. Although low economic opportunity costs can ease recruitment, it may not be essential if such tools are available. The argument is supported by a quantitative analysis covering 133 countries from 1989 to 2006. Countries experiencing civil war were distinguished more by low state reach (measured by road density, telephone density, and % urban of the population) than by depth of poverty (measured by the mean income of the poorest decile). Moreover, the negative association between GDP per capita and civil war risk disappeared when controlling for state reach, but remained strong controlling for poverty.

Impact of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on millennium development goals (MDGs): Context for diffusion and adoption of ICT innovations in East and Southern Africa

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) impact all the millennium development goals (MDGs), especially in eradicating extreme poverty and hunger. The correlation between ICTs and high economic growth has not been well researched in most African countries. The specific objectives of the research are: to assess the impact of ICTs on MDGs, to ascertain the ICT impact on economic growth, and determine the pattern for diffusion and adoption of ICT innovations in East and Southern Africa, and to recommend a development model or a framework for economic growth for these African countries. The methodology used was largely qualitative on technology capacity needs assessment that covered 6 countries, and also quantitative on gross domestic product (GDP) and Infodensity covering 18 countries in East and Southern Africa. GDP and Infodensity data was collected for 18 African countries to ascertain the link between ICTs diffusion and GDP density per country. The mean for the 18 East and Southern African countries with respect to main telephone density is 3.8%, mobile subscribers is 27.87%, and internet use is at 4.87%. Capacity needs assessment included both the human capital development and social capital aspects in order to achieve sustainable information and communication technology capacity development. Human capital development is central to capacity needs. There is a strong correlation between ICT diffusion and high economic growth, evidenced by high mobile density. The mobile phone has become a good measure of wealth for an average African. The solution to poverty and under-development in these African countries is, therefore, knowledge and economic empowerment. The recommended sustainable technology development with an African model is proposed. Key words: Information and communication technologies, millennium development goals, sustainable development, diffusion, infodensity, gross domestic product.

ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration

Computer and Internet use, especially in developing countries, has expanded rapidly in recent years. Even in light of this expansion in technology adoption rates, penetration rates differ markedly between developed and developing countries and across developing countries. To identify the determinants of cross-country disparities in personal computer and Internet penetration, both currently and over time, we examine panel data for 161 countries over the 1999-2004 period. We explore the role of a comprehensive set of economic, demographic, infrastructure, institutional and financial factors in contributing to the global digital divide. We find evidence indicating that income, human capital, the youth dependency ratio, telephone density, legal quality and banking sector development are associated with technology penetration rates. Overall, the factors associated with computer and Internet penetration do not differ substantially between developed and developing countries. Estimates from Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions reveal that the main factors responsible for low rates of technology penetration rates in developing countries are disparities in income, telephone density, legal quality and human capital. In terms of dynamics, our results indicate fairly rapid reversion to long run equilibrium for Internet use, and somewhat slower reversion for computer use, particularly in developed economies. Financial development, either measured as bank lending or the value of stocks traded, is also important to the growth rate of Internet use.

The impact of Universal Service Obligations and International Cross-subsidies on the dispersion of telephone services in developing countries

This paper re-evaluates the telecommunication policies often applied to create regional dispersion of services in developing countries. We observe that failure to consider the complexities of the regional telecommunication systems in creating policies and investment strategies has increased the telecom gap between urban and rural regions worldwide. In particular, the teledensities of rural telecommunications in developing countries have remained very low in spite of support through universal service obligation fees and cross-subsidization from international services. As traditional methods for economic analysis and modeling have failed to identify mechanisms that improve telephone dispersion in these countries, we use a system dynamics modeling approach to deal with complexities of the situation in order to evaluate how Universal Service Obligations (USOs) and International Cross-Subsidy (ICS) policies affect telephone densities. We demonstrate that these policies may be counterproductive due to the structure of the telecom system itself. We also show that, when market-clearing pricing is combined with USOs once the urban telephone density reaches a minimum threshold, the dispersion of rural telecommunications can be considerably improved.

The Impact of Universal Service Obligations and International Cross-Subsidies on the Dispersion of Telephone Services in Developing Countries

This paper re-evaluates the telecommunication policies often applied to create regional dispersion of services in developing countries. We observe that failure to consider the complexities of the regional telecommunication systems in creating policies and investment strategies has increased the telecom gap between urban and rural regions worldwide. In particular, the teledensities of rural telecommunications in developing countries have remained very low in spite of support through universal service obligation fees and cross-subsidization from international services. As traditional methods for economic analysis and modeling have failed to identify mechanisms that improve telephone dispersion in these countries, we use a system dynamics modeling approach to deal with complexities of the situation in order to evaluate how Universal Service Obligations (USOs) and International Cross-Subsidy (ICS) policies affect telephone densities. We demonstrate that these policies may be counterproductive due to the structure of the telecom system itself. We also show that, when market-clearing pricing is combined with USOs once the urban telephone density reaches a minimum threshold, the dispersion of rural telecommunications can be considerably improved.

The determinants of the global digital divide: a cross-country analysis of computer and internet penetration

To identify the determinants of cross-country disparities in personal computer and internet penetration, we examine a panel of 161 countries over the 1999–2001 period. Our candidate variables include economic variables (income per capita , years of schooling, illiteracy, trade openness), demographic variables (youth and aged dependency ratios, urbanization rate), infrastructure indicators (telephone density, electricity consumption), telecommunications pricing measures, and regulatory quality. With the exception of trade openness and the telecom pricing measures, these variables enter in as statistically significant in most specifications for computer use. A similar pattern holds true for internet use, except that telephone density and aged dependency matter less. The global digital divide is mainly—but by no means entirely—accounted for by income differentials. For computers, telephone density and regulatory quality are of second and third importance, while for the Internet, this ordering is reversed. The region-specific explanations for large disparities in computer and Internet penetration are generally very similar. Our results suggest that public investment in human capital, telecommunications infrastructure, and the regulatory infrastructure may mitigate the gap in PC and Internet use.

ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration

Computer and Internet use, especially in developing countries, has expanded rapidly in recent years. Even in light of this expansion in technology adoption rates, penetration rates differ markedly between developed and developing countries and across developing countries. To identify the determinants of cross-country disparities in personal computer and Internet penetration, both currently and over time, we examine panel data for 161 countries over the 1999-2004 period. We explore the role of a comprehensive set of economic, demographic, infrastructure, institutional and financial factors in contributing to the global digital divide. We find evidence indicating that income, human capital, the youth dependency ratio, telephone density, legal quality and banking sector development are associated with technology penetration rates. Overall, the factors associated with computer and Internet penetration do not differ substantially between developed and developing countries. Estimates from Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions reveal that the main factors responsible for low rates of technology penetration rates in developing countries are disparities in income, telephone density, legal quality and human capital. In terms of dynamics, our results indicate fairly rapid reversion to long run equilibrium for Internet use, and somewhat slower reversion for computer use, particularly in developed economies. Financial development, either measured as bank lending or the value of stocks traded, is also important to the growth rate of Internet use.

ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration

Computer and Internet use, especially in developing countries, has expanded rapidly in recent years. Even in light of this expansion in technology adoption rates, penetration rates differ markedly between developed and developing countries and across developing countries. To identify the determinants of cross-country disparities in personal computer and Internet penetration, both currently and over time, we examine panel data for 161 countries over the 1999-2004 period. We explore the role of a comprehensive set of economic, demographic, infrastructure, institutional and financial factors in contributing to the global digital divide. We find evidence indicating that income, human capital, the youth dependency ratio, telephone density, legal quality and banking sector development are associated with technology penetration rates. Overall, the factors associated with computer and Internet penetration do not differ substantially between developed and developing countries. Estimates from Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions reveal that the main factors responsible for low rates of technology penetration rates in developing countries are disparities in income, telephone density, legal quality and human capital. In terms of dynamics, our results indicate fairly rapid reversion to long run equilibrium for Internet use, and somewhat slower reversion for computer use, particularly in developed economies. Financial development, either measured as bank lending or the value of stocks traded, is also important to the growth rate of Internet use.

Internet diffusion in sub-Saharan Africa: A cross-country analysis

In this paper, the notions of digital inequality and digital divide have been employed to describe two levels of Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs) access. On the one hand is the inequality of access to the cluster of technology measured by Internet use and on the other are the confluence of skills and other resources that differentiate countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Using cross-country data, hypotheses are tested within a simultaneous equation system. The paper confirms the vital importance of telecommunications infrastructure represented by the high correlation of telephone density with Internet irrespective of per capita income level of the country.

Suicide in Developing Countries (1)

Suicide is a global public health problem, but relatively little epidemiological investigation of the phenomenon has occurred in developing countries. This paper aims to (1) examine the availability of rate data in developing countries, (2) provide a description of the frequency and distribution of suicide in those countries for which data are available, and (3) explore the relationship between country-level socioeconomic factors and suicide rates. It is accompanied by two companion papers that consider risk factors and preventive efforts associated with suicide in developing countries, respectively. Using World Health Organization data, we calculated the average annual male, female, and total suicide rates during the 1990s for individual countries and regions (classified according to the Human Development Index [HDI]), and examined the association between a range of socioeconomic indicators and suicide rates. For reasons of data availability, we concentrated on medium HDI countries. Suicide rates in these countries were variable. They were generally comparable with those in high HDI countries from the same region, with some exceptions. High education levels, high telephone density, and high per capita levels of cigarette consumption were associated with high suicide rates; high levels of inequality were associated with low suicide rates. Epidemiological investigations of this kind have the potential to inform suicide prevention efforts in developing countries, and should be encouraged.

Closing the gap in access to rural communication: Chile 1995‐2002

Telecommunications reforms in Chile led to rapid development in the 1990s driven by the private sector, but rural areas remained largely excluded because of the high cost of providing service, low revenue potential, and lack of strategic interest to the operating companies. In 1994 the Government established a fund to catalyze additional private investment in payphone service in rural areas with low income and low telephone density. As a result, the proportion of Chile’s population living in places without access to basic voice communication decreased from 15 percent to 1 percent in 2002. Success was due largely to extensive reliance on market forces to determine and allocate subsidies, minimal regulatory intervention, simple and relatively expeditious processing, and effective government leadership. The design of the fund proved robust, and remains the leading example of a cost‐effective solution to reduce access gaps in basic communication in emerging economies.

Convergence: Informatization, World System, and Developing Countries

This essay reviews the arguments of the utopians and the dystopians on the ongoing Third Communication Revolution—the convergence of telecommunication, computers, and digitization—and makes the point that the state of capitalism stimulated by this revolution has left nations—small or big—with little option but to informatize so they could effectively compete in the world material economy. Because dependency theory offers no solution for these nations to escape from the quagmire of underdevelopment, a persuasive argument has surfaced to view the longitudinal “capitalist” dynamics of the world economy in nonideological terms. Global competition and interdependence reflect to some extent the end of the nation in the orthodox sense. One can reconfigure structural theory—the dependency-world system theory formulation—to reflect the emerging state of globalization. This essay uses an informatization model founded on the basic variables of the old paradigm of modernization— urbanization, literacy, education, and media participation— to explain 3 essential variables denoting informatization—economic status, telephone density, and Internet host penetration. It also points out that the Human Development Index (HDI) itself is based on related variables: literacy, education, health (life expectancy), and economic status (GNP).

Universal service: does competition help or hurt?

In a general environment of increasing deregulation and promotion of competition in telecommunications markets, the effects of these changes upon the attainment of universal service objectives are coming under close scrutiny. In a rough way, ‘universal service objectives’ means that economic authorities would like to promote high telephone densities at affordable prices. Thus, empirical analysis of the effect of competition should evaluate both telephone density and price effects. We show that, when we look at aggregate data, the effects of the introduction of competition on telephone density depend on the econometric approach followed, and that, in the short run, no clear downward pressure on prices results from competition. Hence, the aggregate, country level, effects do not provide a clear answer to the posed question. There is a need for further research that reconciles the findings of microeconometric studies with aggregate data evolution.

A new era: the development of telecommunications in Hungary

After the transition to a market economy, a new period of transition opened up in Hungarian telecommunications. A program of developmental "catch-up" began in earnest with the aim of building a digital network and increasing national telephone density. The financial resources came from bank loans and from the privatization of the Hungarian Telecommunication Company. The former telecommunication monopoly was abolished and new actors, based on concession rights, appeared in the market. The immediate result was a sudden improvement in telephone penetration: telephone density doubled between 1991 and 1995, from 10.9 to 21.2; three companies began operating a mobile telephone system. Against these attractive developments there also arose many problems: out-of-date and inappropriate regulations; the changing role of the state in this new "strategy" sector; the risk that development requirements would hinder the activity of local telephone companies; varying technologies which created issues of compatibility and interfacing; and an unexpected traffic decrease because of the high tariffs.

Small is Beautiful

This paper reviews the arguments of the Utopians and the dystopians on the current communication revolution, and makes the case that countries have no alternative but to join that revolution to compete in the world material economy. It uses a revised version of Kuo’s (1993, 1994) model to document and analyze the three main dimensions of informatization–people, infrastructure and economy–as they pertain to three relatively small Indian Ocean Rim countries–Malaysia, Mauritius and Sri Lanka. Using the backdrop of the countries constituting the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, it argues that smaller countries, as well as ‘fertile spots’ in larger countries, with high achievements on the people dimension can leapfrog into ‘cyberspatial heights’ in the global information society. Malaysia is in the process of setting up its Multimedia Super Corridor determined to implement its Vision 2020. Mauritius, with its Informatics Park set up in 1994, has the potential of beating Malaysia in mainline telephone density at the turn of the century. Sri Lanka, though well situated on the people’s dimension, lags behind because of its stop-and-go economic policies and other reasons. Although, under current projections, Sri Lanka is likely to be telecommunications poor even at the turn of the century, it may yet achieve its goal of becoming the ‘telecommunications gateway to South Asia’ if it adopts better policies to attract capital and develop high-performance computing capability.