Technology Foresight Activities Research Articles

Sustainable management and the prospects for innovation and technological development in Poland

Introduction. Science and technology policy should be the most dynamic policy domains in Poland. The strong political interest in science and technology reflects a wide recognition of the relevance of scientific research and technological development in relation to industrial competitiveness and societal problems. In preparing for the challenges our country faces in the 21st Century, research and development are regarded as vital, whether they concern aging, transportation and mobility issues or sustainable development. Analysis of recent researches and publications has shown that the published up to date papers aren’t systematic and can’t claim to be a complete analysis in the chosen field. The aim of the articleis to present a recent prospective technological study aimed at reconciling technological development with the long-term goal of achieving sustainable development. Methods. General scientific methods such as the systematic approach, theo­retical generalization and comparison, analysis and synthesis have been used in the research. Results. The aim of the long-term strategies for sustainable development of the state is to provide information and analysis necessary to maintain the leading position in the field of technological development and innovation in the foreseeable future. Currently, a significant method of supporting this activity is technology foresight.In Poland technology foresight activities play an important role in targeting science and technology towards present and future societal needs. Technology foresight is regarded as the most upstream element of the identification of prospects for innovation and technological development. It provides inputs for the formulation of technology policies and strategies that guide the development of the technological infrastructure. In addition, technology foresight provides support to innovation, and incentives and assistance to enterprises in the domain of technology management and technology transfer, leading to enhanced competitiveness and growth.The technologyforesight initiative also provides suitable metho­dologies to promote sustainable and innovative development, fostering economic, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levels. Its outcomes are policies and programs that deal with innovation, industrial growth and competitiveness. Conclusions. The main conclusion of the technology foresight study (especially in their ecolo­gical aspects) is that technology offers opportunities for sustainable development. But alignment of techno­logical developments with sustainability is necessary. The secondary effects like shifting the burden from environment to space should be counteract. Also, more attention is needed for system innovations. The government is an important player on different levels (regulation, stakeholder) and should start the dialogue with relevant parties. The system approach and societal needs offer a useful conceptual frame­work to bring parties together. The technology foresightstudy could form a basis for this dialogue.

READY, STEADY, DIGITAL?! How foresight activities do (NOT) affect individual technological frames for managerial SENSEMAKING

This qualitative study explores how managers use their individual technological frames for sensemaking during technology foresight activities. Although the positive effects of technology foresight activities are well documented, there is limited research, which analyzes the influence of foresight on managerial frames for sensemaking. We lack detailed descriptions how managers sensemaking processes are influenced, since most research studies do not analyze individual technological frames before, during, and after foresight activities are conducted. This study targets this gap by analyzing managerial frames for sensemaking at three different points in time. To do so, we conducted several technology foresight workshops with participants from the German construction sector. The collected data comprises 32 in-depth interviews, 12 group discussions, and complementary records from six companies, three organizations, and two universities. The findings show that managers apply and adapt their individual technological frames during foresight activities. Technological advantages are recognized, and the managers are able to create a detailed vision of their organization's future development. However, to our surprising, the managers returned to their initial technological frames after the workshop, because the daily business life and established routines did not allow to apply the adapted sensemaking mechanisms. The study's findings offer three contribution: First, we show that managers distinguish their sensemaking in perceived sensegiving and sensebreaking during foresight activities. Second, we describe the gravitating influence of a dominating organizational frame, which leads managers to ignore the results of foresight activities. Third, we question the long-term interrelations of foresight activities and technological frames.

The technology foresight activities of European Union data protection authorities

Data Protection Authorities play multiple roles, including education, consultancy, provision of policy advice, international coordination, as well as enforcement of regulation. In exercising these roles DPA's engage in a range of activities centred around understanding new technology developments, and anticipating their potential effects and impacts upon data protection and privacy. As responsible parties in relation to enforcement of national and EU data protection law DPAs are in a clear position to assess or provide guidance upon the requirements of the existing legal framework in relation to new technologies. This paper maps the technology foresight activities of European DPAs, the importance of this activity to their work, the particular challenges they face, and the extent to which such activities are performed in isolation or collaboration. It also assesses the potential for a collaborative EU DPA technology foresight task force.

Technology foresight in China: Academic studies, governmental practices and policy applications

Technology foresight has received increasing attention in China among academic scholars and policy makers. This paper, based on an analysis of global technology foresight features, systematically summarizes and discusses academic studies, governmental practices, and policy applications regarding technology foresight in China, associated with bibliometrics, expert interviews, and desk research methods. The evidence of both theoretical studies and practical activities indicates that technology foresight has rapidly developed in China. This development process can be divided into three periods: the exploration, rapid development, and maturation periods. Technology foresight activities in China enable stakeholders to consult with each other, which leads to a technology foresight culture. Further, many problems in developing and planning with science, technology, and innovation can be solved when comprehensive approaches are adopted to conduct technology foresight activities, including large-scale Delphi survey, scenario analysis, technology roadmap, and bibliometrics, among others. Currently, technology foresight is not only an essential instrument, but is also widely applied in China to develop planning and policies regarding science, technology, and innovation activities. Alternatively, the methodology of Chinese technology foresight and its application to science and technology planning must further improve.

Intelligent piggybacking: a foresight policy tool for small catching-up economies

Most of the modern foresight literature and practice have treated all economies as being largely the same. High-profile technology foresight activities, which have served as best practice models, describe possible future development scenarios or trajectories on the cutting edge of science and technology. Such a ‘grand narratives’ approach, while appropriate for advanced industrialised economies, is not suitable for small catching-up economies that should opt, instead, for an ‘intelligent piggybacking’ approach to foresight. This approach focuses on mapping global development trajectories and finding the possibilities for restructuring and upgrading existing technological and production capabilities. Recent foresight experiences in Estonia are discussed in light of the model proposed.

Exploring the impact of technology foresight studies on innovation: Case of BRIC countries

This paper explores technology foresight activities in the BRIC countries. The article starts from recent trends in foresight research, including the generation models, methodologies, connections with innovation, and influence of globalization. The case analysis section will focus on the development of technology foresight activities in BRICs. Some common technology foresight issues and characteristics are identified and summarized for the BRICs and other emerging countries.

The future of science and technology and pro‐poor applications

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to highlight the overall lack of focus of existing foresight analysis concerning the future of science and technology on the issue of poverty. The paper looks to re‐orient the technology foresight community to adopting an explicit pro‐poor perspective when considering future developments in science and technology (S&T).Design/methodology/approachThe paper presents a general overview of existing technology foresight studies from organizations located in North America, Europe, and Asia. By describing the key points made in a selection of foresight studies, the paper emphasizes the conceptual links between forward‐looking analysis related to S&T and poverty‐related issues.FindingsThe paper reaches two main conclusions about the role of S&T foresight and development. The first is that the foresight research community needs to interact more closely with the development community in order to enhance the value of the findings in each field to the other. Second, the pressing matter of poverty alleviation requires that the foresight community should come together and create a sense of urgency in issues that have long‐term implications but need immediate action and attention.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper is limited to an approach that provides an overview of existing work in technology foresight. While no such review could be comprehensive, this paper provides examples of technology foresight analysis from a range of geographies, sectors, and perspectives to help mitigate this gap.Practical implicationsThe argument suggests that technology foresight practitioners should make issues of poverty an explicit topic or category of analysis in future technology foresight activities. Including poverty issues in future scenario activities would go a long way to closing this gap.Originality/valueThis paper synthesizes ideas from a variety of forward‐looking studies addressing the future of science and technology and identifies the need to include poverty as a dimension for analysis in future studies. In addition, the paper provides an introduction to technology foresight work being conducted in Asia by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight.

Technology foresight - more than fashion?

Technology foresight is blooming all around the western industrialised countries. Is it more than fashion? What are the benefits for S&T policy? This introduction gives an overview of the special issue of the International Journal of Technology Management. In the first part, you will find a discussion of some theoretical basics of the political decision process, to which technology foresight is supposed to deliver input, and of some methodological questions of technology foresight. In the second part, the main focus is laid on the analysis of technology foresight activities on different levels. These analyses are based upon empirical results from recently finished foresight activities. Finally, in the third part, a spotlight is thrown on Seven Paradoxes of foresight in a rather provoking form, which seems to be a good starting point for further discussions.

Technology foresight: experiences from companies operating worldwide

As the speed of innovation and globalisation grows, chances and risks for enterprises rise. An early identification of discontinuities can prevent enterprises from losing ground in competition. The need to stay up to date in technology development or to become a trendsetter can be supported by technology foresight (TF), a system or process which should enable the users to identify new or overlapping technologies. The study reported in this paper aimed to find out how technology foresight is carried out in companies operating worldwide. It is based on interviews with different representatives of 21 selected enterprises who have gained experience in technology foresight activities. One of the main results is that the firms make intensive use of internal and external networks to collect and analyse information.

Technology Foresight Activities in Korea and in Countries Closing the Technology Gap

This article discusses technology foresight in selected countries which were politically dependent (colonial) before World War II and considered as “under-developed” in the post-war period. Most of them show considerable economic dynamism in the 1990s, which is not always based on their own scientific and technological capability. For this group of countries, national exercises in technology foresight are likely to be an important tool in planning the strategic direction for science and technology development in order to catch up economically as well as socially. In Korea, which has recently become an OECD member, comparative advantage based on factors such as low wages and protected industries are no longer effective as the economy is now wide open to the world. Foresight is being used to look at comparative advantages based on Korea’s own knowledge-creating activities. In southeast Asian countries, foresight is still in an infant stage, but most of these have medium-term planning cycles and have undertaken longer-term vision studies. In South Africa, a national foresight project is running, as is an adapting foresight process to make the large national research organization fit. In Latin America, an agenda has been set up which indicates the desire of several countries to engage in foresight activities using different approaches.

National Technology Foresight Activities Around the Globe: Resurrection and New Paradigms

This contribution summarizes recent experiences in government or national technology forecasting which are now often termed “foresight.” While the methodological tool kit changed from mathematical models to more qualitative scenarios or visions, the Delphi method has become the backbone of foresight projects. Recent national activities, being dealt with in this special issue, are compared in terms of their comprehensiveness, their science versus industry orientation, and their analytic versus action-oriented targets. Although some of these are ongoing, we can discern several new foresight paradigms. From the perspectives of sociology and political sciences, foresight elements seem to be the means of communication (or the “wiring up”) for the negotiating systems of the society. From an economics and management point of view, foresight is helpful for benchmarking and for initiating feedback processes between future demand and present day investment in research and development. From a cultural point of view, the resurrection of foresight in the 1990s seems to be related to growing globalization and at the same time the recognition of national or regional innovation systems. Finally, in terms of international affairs supranational foresight seems to become a new venture.