Tax Revenue Trends Research Articles

A Comprehensive Review of Tax Policy Changes and Tax Revenue in Kenya

Government revenue is crucial for fostering economic growth, especially in emerging economies where financial autonomy matters. Mobilising this revenue is key to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) focused on productivity and inclusive growth. This study analyses Kenya's tax revenue trends from 2001 to 2021, particularly the impact of tax policy reforms on the tax-to-GDP ratio. The findings reveal a significant increase in Kenya's tax revenue from 182,418 million shillings in 2001 to 1,692,662 million shillings in 2021, reflecting the effectiveness of tax reforms. It notes a shift towards direct taxes, which increased both in absolute terms and as a portion of total revenue, indicating improved compliance and administrative efficiency. Key reforms, such as the Tax Modernization Programme and the digital iTax system, enhanced revenue collection by improving compliance and tax base widening. While indirect taxes have traditionally dominated, the gap with direct taxes has narrowed, leading to a more balanced revenue structure. The study also highlights challenges, including political disruptions in 2007 and the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, emphasising the need for resilient revenue strategies. Ultimately, the research concludes that continuous tax policy reform and improved administrative efficiency are essential for Kenya's fiscal sustainability and broader economic development goals.

Determinants of Low Tax Revenuein Pakistan

Low tax-to-GDP ratio has always been a problem for economic development and a major explanation for high budget deficits in Pakistan. In the present study, we attempt to empirically analyze the determinants of low tax revenue in Pakistan by employing time series econometric techniques during the period 1973-2009. This study investigates whether economic policies, external variables and social indicators together with elements of the tax base can explain some of the variations in tax revenue trends in Pakistan. The empirical findings suggest that openness, ample money, external debt, foreign aid and political stability are the significant determinants of fiscal efforts in Pakistan with expected signals. The findings also indicate that the determinants of low tax revenue in Pakistan are a narrow tax base, greater dependence on the agricultural sector, foreign aid and low level of literacy. Finally, it is concluded that Pakistan's economy can generate a high tax-to-GDP ratio by increasing openness, literacy level, political stability, broadening the tax base and controlling income inequality, tax evasion and exemptions tax.

Appraisal of Kenya's excisable goods management system using interrupted time series analysis: A case of cigarettes and cigars excise tax revenue

The government of Kenya introduced the Excisable Goods Management System (EGMS) in November 2013, which is a form of Track and Trace Systems (TTSs) for excisable goods, including cigarettes and cigars. This study appraised the EGMS with a focus on its impact on cigarette and cigars excise tax revenue and possibly control of related illicit trade in Kenya. Illicit trade in cigarettes and cigars pose significant health risks owing to increased access to tobacco products, besides contributing to loss of government revenues. The study utilised an Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) to assess impacts of the EGMS on monthly cigarette and cigars real excise tax revenue over the period April 2013 to March 2017. The results show that the difference between the pre-intervention and post-intervention slopes of the real excise tax revenue was positive and statistically significant, suggesting a change in excise tax revenue trends. The hypothesis of an immediate level change in excise tax revenue was however not supported, possibly due to the initial implementation challenges that dampened a ‘jump’ in real excise tax revenue. These findings suggest that TTSs need to be complemented by sustained efforts to achieve maximum compliance levels and impact in both the short term and the long term.

Tax Revenue Trends in Latin America and Asia: A Comparative Analysis

ABSTRACT We take stock of and compare tax revenue trends in Latin America and Asia. The tax revenues to GDP ratios increased significantly in both regions in the 2000s, although they remain visibly below European levels. Our analysis portrays a complex picture of the tax collection challenges facing developing countries. Overall, there remains sizable heterogeneity in the revenue performance of developing countries, and across regions. While progress had been constructed, the gap between the advanced economic systems and developing countries suggests ample room for future fiscal developments, and for more disaggregated studies of the tax mobilization challenges facing developing countries in the wake of the worldwide fiscal crisis.

Income Tax Revenue as an Indicator of Regional Development in Pakistan

The objective of this paper is to highlight the use of income tax revenue as an indicator of regional development in Pakistan. Initially, we identify a dramatic shift in income tax revenue trends at the provincial level for the period 1992/93 to 2005/06. We develop a simple model of income tax revenue and estimate the relationship between growth of income tax revenue and gross regional product (GRP). Based on the estimated relationship, Punjab appears to have been the fastest growing province during the 1990s, while Sindh shows the greatest level of dynamism in the current decade. This is attributed to high growth rates, especially in large-scale manufacturing during the period, which has a larger sectoral share in Sindh’s economy.

Tax Revenue Trends and Prospects

Tax Revenue Trends and Prospects

State Corporate Tax Revenue Trends: Causes and Possible Solutions

Previous articleNext article No AccessState Corporate Tax Revenue Trends: Causes and Possible SolutionsWilliam F. Fox and LeAnn LunaWilliam F. Fox Search for more articles by this author and LeAnn Luna Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUS Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by National Tax Journal Volume 55, Number 3September 2002Policy Issues for Taxing Times Published for: The National Tax Association Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2002.3.07 Views: 11Total views on this site Citations: 5Citations are reported from Crossref © 2002 National Tax Association. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports the following articles citing this article:LeAnn Luna and Matthew N. Murray THE EFFECTS OF STATE TAX STRUCTURE ON BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONAL FORM, National Tax Journal 63, no.4.24.2 (Mar 2021): 995–1021.https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2010.4S.08Sanjay Gupta, Jared Moore, Jeffrey Gramlich, and Mary Ann Hofmann Empirical Evidence on the Revenue Effects of State Corporate Income Tax Policies, National Tax Journal 62, no.22 (Mar 2021): 237–267.https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2009.2.03Gary C. Cornia and Barrett A. Slade Horizontal Inequity in the Property Taxation of Apartment, Industrial, Office, and Retail Properties, National Tax Journal 59, no.11 (Mar 2021): 33–55.https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2006.1.02William F. Fox, Matthew N. Murray, and LeAnn Luna How Should a Subnational Corporate Income Tax on Multistate Businesses Be Structured?, National Tax Journal 58, no.11 (Mar 2021): 139–159.https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2005.1.07Iris J. Lav Piling on Problems: How Federal Policies affect State Fiscal Conditions, National Tax Journal 56, no.33 (Mar 2021): 535–554.https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2003.3.06