Task Uncertainty Research Articles

Investigating the compatibility of econometric forecasts and subjective expectations: A suggested framework

The precise nature of expectations formation plays a pivotal role in economics. However, economists have generally relied on econometric forecasts as proxies for the underlying expectations process without adequate verification. This study suggests that Brunswik's Lens Model can be meaningfully utilized to analyze the correspondence between econometric forecasts and subjective expectations. The normative and descriptive aspects of expectations formation can be distinguished. More importantly, the similarity between ex ante subjective expectations and ex post realizations can be analytically broken down into specific components representing knowledge, response consistency and task uncertainty. The proposed model is estimated with Livingston's price survey data. The results indicate that lower achievement is attributable not to lower knowledge or response consistency but rather to relatively greater unpredictability in the statistical environment.

Automatic Grasp Planning in the Presence of Uncertainty

This paper presents an algorithm for automatic planning of robot grasping motions that are insensitive to bounded uncer tainties in the object's location. The algorithm plans parallel- jaw grasping motions for arbitrary two-dimensional polygo nal objects, which need not be of uniform density. Grasping motions are viewed as parameterized operations, where the parameter values that describe an individual operation define an operation space of all possible operations. By combining an analysis of object geometry and the physics of friction, the planning algorithm divides the operation space into regions, where all operations within a given region produce the same final grasping configuration. Task uncertainties are then included by shrinking these regions by the amount of uncer tainty present. The smaller regions that remain after shrink ing indicate all those operations that will successfully result in a given grasping configuration, even if the worst-case combination of errors occurs. Moreover, the grasping operations presented in this paper intrinsically reduce task uncertainty. If an operation is cho sen from a region and executed, then two degrees of uncer tainty will be removed from the object's position when the operation is completed. It is shown that simple squeeze-grasp operations are not sufficient for grasping all possible objects, and offset-grasp and push-grasp operations are added to increase the scope of the planner. The planner has been implemented, and the resulting program has been tested with an industrial manipu lator.

INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS DESIGN

This research examines knowledge presentation to support expert system users' information processing strategies for problem solving. A framework for a systematic research program for evaluating the effectiveness of expert system user interfaces is proposed. Based on this framework, the research examines the impact of knowledge presentation format (procedural vs. declarative) for system explanation facilities, user skill level, level of task uncertainty, and decision-making process on the decision-making performance of system users. Empirical assessment of a computer diagnostic expert system, developed using the Expert System Environment (ESE) shell, and implemented within an international computer manufacturer, is conducted. Theoretical and practical generalizations are drawn regarding the requirements of intelligent interfaces from a behavioral viewpoint.

DETERMINANTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF TASK UNCERTAINTY: A LABORATORY AND FIELD INVESTIGATION

ABSTRACTThis article presents evidence and argument concerning the utility of the concept of task uncertainty for organization theory and practice. The results from two studies, one field and one laboratory, are reported. The results support the hypotheses that: (1) perceptions of task uncertainty are a simple function of the number and analysability of exceptions encountered, and (2) perceptions of task exceptions and search difficulty have distinct relationships with behaviours of interest (communication and decision‐making). Given these two findings, it is argued that the concept of task uncertainty should be replaced by the two source constructs.

Value Structures, Formal Structures, and Technology for Lower Participants in Service Organizations

The effects of technology and formal structures on value structure for lower level individuals in service operations is examined. Service providers (337) in direct contact with clients/customers were surveyed. The results indicate significant relationships among formal structure, task uncertainty, and employee value orientation to customers. Task uncertainty was also found to mediate the relationship between formal structure and value orientation for individuals in direct contact with clients/customers.

Reliance on Accounting Information, Budgetary Participation, and Task Uncertainty: Tests of a Three-Way Interaction

A series of studies reported in this Journal has addressed the question of whether evaluative styles of managers, which vary in terms of their reliance on accounting-based performance assessments, have systematically different behavioral consequences. These studies have produced conflicting results. In particular, Otley [1978] failed to confirm Hopwood's [1972] earlier findings that evaluative styles dominated by a heavy reliance on accounting performance measures, or a high budget-emphasis (BE), had adverse effects on job-related tension (JRT) and managerial performance. In two independent attempts to reconcile this conflict, Brownell [1982] found that a high (low) BE had positive effects on performance so long as budget participation is also high (low), and Hirst [1983] found that a high (low) BE is associated with low JRT in situations of low (high) task uncertainty. In this paper we report the results of a study which links the Brownell and Hirst attempts to reconcile the above conflict. More specifically, our objective was to assess the extent to which Brownell's finding also depends on the level of task uncertainty, the primary independent variable in the Hirst study. Arguments are presented which predict that

The Intellectual and Social Organization of the Sciences

Chapter 1: The Modern Sciences as Reputational Work Organizations Chapter 2: Reputational Control over Scientific Work and the Growth of Employment Opportunities for Scientists Chapter 3: The Degree of Mutual Dependence Between Scientists and the Organization of Scientific Fields Chapter 4: The Degree of Task Uncertainty and the Organization of Scientific Fields Chapter 5: The Organizational Structure of Scientific Fields Chapter 6: The Contexts of Scientific Fields Chapter 7: Relationships between Scientific Fields and Changes in the Organization of the Sciences

Managerial Behavior, Uncertainty and Hierarchy: A Prelude to a Synthesis

This study investigates the effect of task uncertainty on the initiating and search behavior of managers. Competing theoretical arguments are assessed empirically using data collected by sampling randomly the work activities of 50 managers. The findings show that different arguments hold for upper level managers than hold for lower level managers, suggesting that explanations for managerial behavior solely in terms of manager-task interaction or solely in terms of hierarchic position will be incomplete or misleading.

The Effects of Task Uncertainty on Decision Making Strategy: A Laboratory Study.

A laboratory experiment was conducted examining the relationship between task uncertainty and the selection of decision strategies. Two dimensions of uncertainty, exceptions and analyzability, were...

Temporal acuity for speech and nonspeech sounds: The role of stimulus uncertainty

Previous research has demonstrated that the discrimination of stop consonants differing in VOT is categorical (nonmonotonic) in high‐uncertainty tasks such as the ABX paradigm, but may become less categorical as the level of task uncertainty is decreased. In particular, Sachs and Grant [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. Suppl. 1 60, S91 (1976)] reported that the perception of a /ga‐ka/ continuum became monotonic after considerable training in a low‐uncertainty, same‐different task. Four subjects participated in a replication of the Sachs and Grant experiments with a /ba‐pa/ continuum. Results were similar to Sachs and Grants's and indicated that in the lowest uncertainty task VOT discrimination followed Weber's Law. An analogous set of experiments were carried out for somewhat simpler stimuli, following Miller et al. [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 60, 410–417 (1976)]. These stimuli were digitally generated as a bandpassed noise followed by a buzz. The duration of the noise preceding the buzz varied in the same manner as the VOT continuum. Results were essentially the same as those obtained for VOT, demonstrating that the locus of categorical boundaries on these continua cannot be determined by local maxima in auditory acuity, [Supported by NINCDS and AFOSR.]

Stimulus parameters that produce age differences in block design performance.

Administered block designs that varied according to two parameters, Task Uncertainty and Perceptual Cohensiveness, to 83 persons 49 years of age or older. Performance was adjusted to remove motor speed differences. Performance changed significantly over the age span as a function of Task Uncertainty. From 49 years up, performance did not change as a function of Perceptual Cohesiveness. An analysis that included a group of 20 persons 30 years of age or younger yielded an interaction of Age and Perceptual Cohesiveness. From 49 years on, analytic or image segmentation processes do not seem to change, but other information processing becomes slower.

Uncertainty and satisfaction: The importance of information in hospital communication

While many organizational communication researchers have been interested in message uncertainty, few have: (a) operationalized message uncertainty using task, human, and maintenance sub‐scales, or (b) sought to determine which types of message uncertainty best predict various types of satisfaction. This study provided a theoretical basis for investigating message uncertainty and used demographic variables along with task, human, and maintenance uncertainty to predict satisfaction. Results revealed that human uncertainty and sex were the best predictors of satisfaction with the supervisor while the best predictors of satisfaction with the organization were human uncertainty, age, and sex.

Factors affecting the management of interdisciplinary research in the pharmaceutical industry

The author uses the results of recent published behavioural research on team effectiveness as a framework to analyse the problems of managing R&D in pharmaceutical development. The research points to a large number of factors as having a potential impact on managing such R&D which is inescapably multi‐ or inter‐disciplinary in nature. Some such factors may originate outside the team, some within. External factors include organizational climate, R&D decision‐making environment, system maturity and organizational form (type of matrix); internal factors include span of responsibility of team members, disciplinary differentiation, task uncertainty, extent of fulfilment of Belbin roles and a significant requirement for flexibility of style on the part of the manager.The author's conclusion is that achieving effective management of R&D teams in the pharmaceutical R&D environment requires attention to all these factors. The extent to which integration of different disciplines is achieved is symptomatic of the degree to which these factors are understood and attended to.

Stimulus variables in the block design task revisited: A reply to Royer.

Royer (1984) criticizes our analysis of Block Design Test (Schorr, Bower, & Kiernan, 1982) more for form than substance. We prefer an interpretation in terms of individual difference variables rather than stimulus characteristics. In addition, Royer's variables do not appear to have general application that he claims for them. Royer (1984) has written an extended commentary of our recent article (Schorr, Bower, & Kiernan, 1982). The series of experiments described in our article investigated important stimulus variables in block design tasks. He points out correctly essential agreement between our results and his own (Royer, 1977; Royer & Weitzel, 1977), but he criticizes our article on two points: (a) general issue of quantification of stimulus variables and (b) issue of analytic versus synthetic strategies in block design task. After describing his five-step model of block design task, he focuses on two variables, task uncertainty and-perceptual cohesiveness. Task uncertainty is measure of decisions imposed by blockface alternatives (Royer, 1984, p. 700). It is equal to twice number of blocks minus number of solid blocks needed to construct a given design. Perceptual cohesiveness reflects amount of mental segmenting that must be done. It is equal to the number of block edges of same color that are adjacent to one another in construction (Royer, 1984, p. 701). Royer (1984) states that we (Schorr, Bower, & Kiernan, 1982) renamed these variables without explanation. Our studies were completed during winter and spring of 1977 and written initially as an honors undergraduate project (Schorr, 1977, June). The Royer articles (Royer, 1977; Royer & Weitzel, 1977) appeared while we were rewriting manuscript, and problem of how best to reference and include these presented itself. The stimulus names he used were embedded in a perceptual model (Garner, 1962) unfamiliar to us. In addition, model placed primary emphasis on

The Controllability of Financial Outcomes

Accounting performance measures that capture results not controlled by the person being evaluated may be dysfunctional. The aim of this paper is to provide a framework for identifying situations in which outcomes are captured by such measures as are more (less) likely to be controllable. Results of a questionnaire survey support the claim that as task uncertainty increases, individuals perceive less control over financial outcomes.

Nosocomial toxic-shock syndrome in two patients after knee surgery

Redundant robots motion planning and control in uncertain task is addressed by model-based approach. Instead of control and adapt the environment to the robot or apply a complex visual servoing system, we have modeled the redundancy resolution (RR) on the parameter spaces that quantify uncertainties of the task. A modeling tool was Successive Approximations (SA). It provides very advantageous properties: small computational effort and small model size, accurate output, extrapolation, and generalization across parameter set obtained by random addressing of the model. The task discussed is press loading with typical two-dimensional uncertainties in pick-up and unloading locations. The robot used is 4 DOF planar robot. The SA-based models of redundancy resolution in the 2D parameter spaces are highly efficient: for more that 30 times less computational efforts resulted in a zero end-point errors, regardless of the task uncertainty.

Reliance on Accounting Performance Measures, Task Uncertainty, and Dysfunctional Behavior: Some Extensions

Available evidence indicates that the incidence of dysfunctional behavior' undertaken by subordinates is affected by their perceptions of the way in which their superiors use accounting performance measures (APM) to evaluate their performance. However, research to date has produced conflicting results. For example, Hopwood [1972] found that the incidence of dysfunctional behavior was minimal for subordinates who perceived that their superiors used a medium reliance on APM.2 But Otley [1978], in attempting to replicate and extend Hopwood's work, could not confirm some of these results. For example, he found that some

Uncertainty, Social Location and Influence in Decision Making: A Sociometric Analysis

This research investigates the relative impacts of formal status and informal communication roles on influence in administrative and technical decision making. While external information enters the organization via boundary spanning individuals, the exercise of influence at lower levels of the organization is dependent on mediating critical organizational contingencies. As the locus of task uncertainty shifts, so too does the relative influence of boundary spanning individuals and internal stars; the greater the task and environmental uncertainty, the greater the influence of boundary spanning individuals. Senior management are influential across task areas. The formal hierarchy and informal social processes complement each other in the exercise of influence. These results extend research which indicates that different information processing requirements require systematically different organizational processes to attend to that uncertainty.

Organizational Coordination, Output Performance, and Task Uncertainty.

The relationship between organizational coordination and productivity was investigated in four national samples of work units performing nonroutine tasks. As hypothesized, the relationship was found negative in Hungary and Poland but positive in Austria and Belgium. Results are examined from a cross-national perspective and their implications for organization theory discussed.

Organizational Coordination and Productivity in Four European Nations.

Data from 80 work units indicate that as the level of task uncertainty increases, (1) the relationship between coordination and output quality increases but (2) the relationship between coordination and output quantity decreases. Results are examined from an information processing and life-cycle perspective of organizations. Theoretical and research implications are discussed.