Target Date Research Articles

Interpreting Population Mean Treatment Effects in the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire: A Patient-Level Meta-Analysis.

The Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) is a commonly used outcome in heart failure trials. While comparing means between treatment groups improves statistical power, mean treatment effects do not necessarily reflect the clinical benefit experienced by individual patients. To evaluate the association between mean KCCQ treatment effects and the proportions of patients experiencing clinically important improvements across a range of clinical trials and heart failure etiologies. A patient-level analysis of 11 randomized clinical trials, including 9977 patients, was performed to examine the association between mean treatment effects and the KCCQ Overall Summary Score (OSS) and the absolute differences in the proportions of patients experiencing clinically important (≥5 points) and moderate to large (≥10 points) improvements. There was no target date range, and included studies were those for which patient-level data were available. Validation was performed in 7 additional trials. The data were analyzed between July 1 and September 15, 2023. Proportion of patients experiencing an improvement of 5 or more and 10 or more points in their KCCQ score (with each domain transformed to a range of 0 to 100 points, where higher scores represent better health status). Group mean KCCQ-OSS differences were strongly correlated with absolute differences in clinically important changes (Spearman correlations 0.76-0.92). For example, a mean KCCQ-OSS treatment effect of 2.5 points (half of a minimally important difference for an individual patient) was associated with an absolute difference of 6.0% (95% prediction interval [PI], 4.0%-8.1%) in the proportion of patients improving 5 or more points and 5.0% (95% PI, 3.1%-7.0%) in the proportion improving 10 or more points, corresponding to a number needed to treat of 17 (95% PI, 12-25) and 20 (95% PI, 14-33), respectively. Inferences about clinical impacts based on population-level mean treatment effects may be misleading, since even small between-group differences may reflect clinically important treatment benefits for individual patients. Results of this study suggest that clinical trials should explicitly describe the distributions of KCCQ change at the patient level within treatment groups to support the clinical interpretation of their results.

Understanding Poverty Alleviation in Rural China: The Role of Policy Brokers

ABSTRACTChina eradicated rural extreme poverty in 2020 after an 8‐year campaign that combined endogenous economic development involving local people with social assistance. Ethnographic research in a village in southwest China reports township officials, under‐resourced and pressed by higher tiers of government to meet the poverty‐eradication target, commissioning an entrepreneur as a policy‐broker. The latter established enterprises nominally to provide local employment, while seeking profitability from their investment. Prioritising poverty eradication over sustainability, government subsidies were employed to engineer income transfers lifting villagers out of poverty by the target date. Thereafter, transfers of income from the enterprises to impoverished people were at best irregular. The experience highlights the distorting effect of policy targets and the limits to endogenous development undertaken under time–pressure with villagers neither consulted nor benefiting from new employment.

An adaptive photovoltaic power interval prediction based on multi-objective optimization

Photovoltaic (PV) power interval prediction can provide a variation range of prediction results, which is of great significance to promoting the optimization of power grid dispatching and maintaining the stability of the power system. However, the existing PV interval prediction fails to accurately reflect error fluctuations in their construction process due to dependency on data distribution assumptions and unreasonable estimation of prediction error standard deviations (PEStds). To address these issues, we propose an adaptive interval prediction method based on multi-objective optimization. Firstly, K-means clustering is used to segment similar days. Subsequently, Convolutional Neural Network-Gated Recurrent Unit-Attention (CNN-GRU-Attention) is utilized for point prediction. Furthermore, Grey Relation Analysis (GRA) is used to screen dates similar to the target date under the same weather type, enabling a more precise estimation of prediction error fluctuations. Ultimately, the estimated values are multiplied by non-fixed parameters to construct intervals, which avoids the dependency on data distribution assumptions. Among them, the optimal values for non-fixed parameters are obtained through multi-objective optimization considering interval coverage probability, interval width, and deviation. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, we conduct comparative experiments on two datasets with different resolutions. The results demonstrate that the proposed model offers more flexible and higher-quality intervals. Not only does this research improve the accuracy of PV power generation interval prediction, but it also helps to promote the development of smart grid technology and improve the adaptive ability of power systems facing dynamic environments and complex data, which has an important impact on the future energy management and power market.

Tales from an Island School: Stakeholders’ Partnership on Spotlight

This study delved into teachers' experiences at an island school in their collaboration with stakeholders. It aimed to capture the accounts of teachers regarding the involvement of stakeholders in the island school. The study had ten (10) participants, and it employed in-depth interviews to gather information from them. Through thematic analysis, the following themes were identified regarding stakeholders' participation: Planning and decision-making and Program implementation. These findings align with the principles of shared governance and empowerment of school heads as outlined in RA9155's mandate. Additionally, the study identified challenges in stakeholders' partnership, resulting in themes such as Weak commitment of stakeholders to participate and Financial and material deficiency. From the experiences and challenges shared by the teacher- participants, the following insights were developed: Encouraging stakeholders’ participation and increasing the school budget. These insights further reinforce the importance of stakeholders' participation in school planning, decision-making, and all school programs and activities. The study recommends that, to recognize the efforts of stakeholders in crafting the school plan and participating in school activities, incentives should be provided as a practical expression of gratitude. This will motivate stakeholders to consistently participate in school activities, including monitoring project implementation to ensure that the school plan is diligently executed according to the set target date.

Comparison of pre-fermentation and post-fermentations alcohol adjustments on aromatic chemistry and sensory composition of Sauvignon blanc wine

Harvest and alcohol adjustment effects were evaluated for Sauvignon blanc grapes harvested at three potential alcohols (11, 13 and 15% (v/v)) by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry and descriptive analysis. Alcohol concentration was controlled for pre-fermentation by dilution or chaptalization and post-fermentation by dealcoholization. The initial experimental alcohol was treated as the control and the dealcoholized wine the treatment. Wine treatments sharing the same alcohol target and harvest date as the dealcoholized wine were designated as the negative control. All aroma compounds measured increased because of higher ethanol or declined because of dealcoholization. Similar aroma concentrations were observed to be a factor of alcohol concentration, apart from volatile thiols which were influenced by harvest. Statistical analysis of sensory and aroma compounds showed a corresponding relationship between low versus high alcohol wines. Dealcoholization appears to be an effective tool for altering wine aroma and winemaking style with comparable aroma loss to pre-fermentation adjustment.

Defying Predictions: Global Bureaucracy and the Art of not Making Guesses about Papua New Guinea

ABSTRACTPapua New Guinea's story of decolonisation has never meshed very well with standard visions of nationalist struggle. Focused exclusively on the coloniser and the colonised, these narratives ignore the role played by post‐war global groups and organisations whose decolonial work has largely been forgotten. In this article, I examine the role of the United Nations Trusteeship Council in pushing Australia and Papua New Guinea towards decolonisation through their bureaucratic demands for particular forms of information flow. Australia responded to these demands for information – in particular demands for target dates for independence – by claiming that the Trust Territory of New Guinea was a space in which it was impossible to make any kind of predictions. Through annual reports and careful stage‐management of UN Trusteeship Council Visiting Missions, Australia presented their own failures of governance to the UN as natural facts of the Territory of New Guinea's geographic and cultural ‘fragmentation’ rather than as a political fact of Australia's own resources and management. This set the stage for the kinds of contemporary discourses of fragmentation and division that are hallmarks of complaints about Papua New Guinea as a failed state.

Multifunctional-Team Approach Achieves Extended-Reach Record Offshore Abu Dhabi

_ This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper SPE 216326, “Longest Extended-Reach-Drilling Well Worldwide Drilled in Middle East, Offshore Abu Dhabi, UAE,” by Marah Mohamad Alabed, Naser Salah Alsuwaidi, and Jamie Scott Duguid, SPE, ADNOC, et al. The paper has not been peer reviewed. _ The complete paper describes the engineering design and operational practices that supported the setting of a new extended-reach world record in a mature carbonate field offshore Abu Dhabi. This accomplishment reduces the carbon footprint of the development, allows acquisition of reservoir data earlier in the development plan, and accelerates production while reducing costs. This extended-reach development program is a strong example of what can be accomplished when a multifunctional team cultivates a strategic plan to expand technical and operational capabilities in a drilling campaign. Reservoir and Development-Plan Background The 1-md oil reservoir is a carbonate dominated by packstone and grainstone rock types in terms of storage capacity. Average porosity is 18%, and thickness is 130 ft. Permeability reduces in an southeast/northwest direction, dropping below 1 md. Calcite cementation development has occurred in the westernmost areas of the reservoir because of late oil in these low structural areas. Initially, the target reservoir was drilled at 2-km well spacing with a five-spot waterflooding scheme from wellhead platform towers. Later, development was optimized by a line waterflooding scheme at 250-m well spacing by development from an environmental island. The target reservoir area was partitioned into four development areas (West A, West B, West C, and West D). The partition is based on drilling reachability from environmental islands and underlying geology. The current optimized development began in the West A reservoir area through an artificially constructed island. The remaining reservoir areas required investment of two new islands. High risk is associated with these investment decisions because these reservoir areas degrade in terms of reservoir rock properties. Additionally, an increasing trend of water saturation exists with progress in the northwest direction within the transition zone. The development plan in the West A area is based on drilling segments called AB and BC, first with over-20,000-ft laterals to achieve production buildup by target date. To test the West B area, Segment BC was extended, thus covering both West A and B areas. This option reduced drilling complexity and maximized the reservoir-production rate. Additionally, by adopting the island drilling option instead of appraising a limited area of West B, an extensive area of approximately 10 km could be appraised. To implement this option, a stepout drilling plan was executed by drilling eight extended-reach maximum-reservoir-contact wells in increments to meet the goal of appraising the West B reservoir area. These first wells were extended in increments of 1,000–2,000 ft to test the capability to drill and run completion to target a measured depth (MD) of 45,000 ft. Upon applying learnings from these pilot wells, a stepout to extending wells to 50,000 ft MD and greater was studied. Fig. 1 shows the map of the subject drilled well with an extended MD of 50,000 ft with an underlying oil-saturation map. This optimized field-development strategy has allowed for effective West B reservoir appraisal.

Magnetohydrodynamics tangent hyperbolic nanofluid flow across a vertical stretching surface using Levengberg-Marquardt back propagation artificial neural networks

This analysis uses the Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation artificial neural networks (LM-BP-ANNs) approach to demonstrate the mathematical strategy of neural networks for the simulation of MHD Tangent hyperbolic nanofluid (THNF) flow consisting of motile microorganisms through a vertically extending surface. The fluid flow is being investigated in terms of exponential heat source/sink, thermal radiation, and magnetic field. The modeled equations are relegated to the ordinary system of differential equations by substituting similarity variables. The ND-solve approach is applied for the modeled equations to numerically handle and generate a dataset. Several activities, including testing, verification, and training, are performed by creating a scheme for various fluid problems using reference data sets. The precision of LM-BP-ANNs is evaluated using mean square error, curve fitting error histogram, and the regression analysis plot. Furthermore, graphs are used to analyze flow parameters for concentration, momentum, and energy profiles. It has been observed that the velocity field declines as the magnetic field grows stronger. The THNF model for energy, mass, and momentum equations is tested, authenticated, and trained within an average of 10−9. The LM-BP-ANNs accomplish the highest accuracy, with a target date and absolute error reference values in the 10−4 to 10−5 range.

District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Aligning United States Law with International Norms Would Remove Major Barriers to Protection in Gender Claims

Abstract The protection of women and girls fleeing gender-based harms has been controversial in the United States (US), with advances followed by setbacks. The US interpretation of particular social group and its nexus analysis, both of which diverge from guidance by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), is the most significant barrier to protection. It has become almost impossible for women and girls to rely upon the particular social group ground because of current requirements that social groups not only be defined by immutable or fundamental characteristics, but also be socially distinct and have particularity. Establishing nexus is also a significant obstacle, with the US requirement of proof of the persecutor’s intent. In the first month of his administration, President Biden issued an executive order on migration, which raised hopes that these obstacles to protection would be removed. The order committed to protecting survivors of domestic violence and to issuing regulations that would make the US interpretation of particular social group consistent with international standards. The target date for the regulations was November 2021, but they have yet to issue. This article examines how the evolution of the US interpretation of particular social group and nexus has diverged from UNHCR recommendations. It shows how protection has been denied in gender cases involving the most egregious of harms. The article concludes by providing recommendations for realignment with international standards, which set a benchmark for evaluating the promised Biden administration regulations on the issue.

Online calls for protest and offline mobilization in autocracies: evidence from the 2017 Dey Protests in Iran

Abstract A body of research suggests that social media has afforded new opportunities for orchestrating mobilization in autocracies. However, the mechanisms linking online coordination with offline mobilization are rarely demonstrated. We address this lacuna by exploring the impact of Farsi-language social media posts that called for protest on precise days and locations in Iran during the 2017 ‘Dey Protests’. To conduct our analysis, we match a dataset of posts with an original protest event catalogue. Our results show that if a district was the subject of a protest call, it was much more likely to witness higher levels of mobilization on the target date. This relationship was especially pronounced for calls that received more online engagement. The findings suggest that the digital commons can play a role akin to an analogue protest flyer: social media posts can inform broad audiences of the where and when of upcoming mobilization.

Commercial Tobacco Endgame Goals: Early Experiences From Six Countries.

Tobacco use is a major threat to health globally. A number of countries have adopted "endgame goals" to minimize smoking prevalence. The INSPIRED project aims to describe and compare the experiences of the first six countries to adopt an endgame goal. Data were collected on the initial experiences of endgame goals in Canada, Finland, Ireland, New Zealand (Aotearoa), Scotland, and Sweden up to 2018. Information was collated on the nature of the endgame goals, associated interventions and strategies, potential enablers and barriers, and perceived advantages and disadvantages. The INSPIRED countries had relatively low smoking prevalences and moderate-to-strong smoke-free policies. Their endgame goals aimed for smoking prevalences of 5% or less. Target dates ranged from 2025 to 2035. Except for New Zealand (Aotearoa), all countries had an action plan to support their goal by 2018. However, none of the plans incorporated specific endgame measures. Lack of progress in reducing inequities was a key concern, despite the consideration of equity in all of the country's goals and/or action plans. Experience with endgame goals was generally positive; however, participants thought additional interventions would be required to equitably meet their endgame goal. There was variation in the nature and approach to endgame goals. This suggests that countries should consider adopting endgame goals and strategies to suit their social, cultural, and political contexts. The experiences of the INSPIRED countries suggest that further and more significant interventions will be required for the timely and equitable achievement of endgame goals. By 2018, six countries (Canada, Finland, Ireland, New Zealand (Aotearoa), Scotland, and Sweden) had introduced government-endorsed "endgame goals," to rapidly reduce smoking prevalence to very low levels by a specified date. The nature and implementation of endgame goals were variable. Early experiences with the goals were generally positive, but progress in reducing smoking prevalence was insufficient, particularly for priority groups. This finding suggests more significant interventions ("endgame interventions") and measures to reduce inequities need to be implemented to achieve endgame goals. Variation in the nature and experience of endgame goals demonstrates the importance of designing endgame strategies that suit distinct social, cultural, and political contexts.

The Australian public’s preferences for further environmental and cultural water recovery options in the Murray-Darling Basin

The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) Plan in Australia legislated in 2012 represents the largest recovery of water, from consumptive use to environmental use in the world – with the aim of restoring rivers and ecosystems back to health. To date, although billions of dollars have been spent, the Plan’s water recovery targets have not been achieved and will not meet their original target dates for full recovery, with governments needing to continue to make difficult water policy choices and trade-offs. This study explores a survey of Australian public preferences for five different water reallocation options in the MDB (and methods to be used for recovery) and identifies individual characteristics associated with various policy options. Almost a quarter of those surveyed did not support further water recovery; 17 % favoured recovering water to current goals only; 22 % favoured recovering environmental water beyond current goals; while 38 % favoured recovering both environmental and cultural water beyond current goals. For those wanting further recovery, a third preferred using irrigation infrastructure subsidies as the main method, while the majority favoured buying water directly back from irrigators (either through voluntary buyback or compulsory acquisition). Trust levels, location, age, climate change perception and gender all played a part in influencing respondent preferences for various water recovery options.

Performance dispersion among target date funds

There are significant differences in the performance of Target Date Funds (TDFs) with the same target year. Using a unique dataset from Morningstar, we show that within the same target year, funds with lower than the average expense ratio, or higher than average allocation to equities, outperform similar funds. This outperformance exists across all target year groups and is economically meaningful. Furthermore, deviations in the equity allocation have a greater impact on performance than does expense ratio. Using bootstrap simulations to investigate the impact over a longer horizon, we show that deviations from the average allocations or expense ratios have a meaningful impact on the retirement savings of an average investor.

Innovating methods of agricultural development research and practice

As we race towards 2030, the target date for achieving the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals, it is critical that we examine our approaches to agricultural development research and practice. We should not expect extraordinary results by using the approaches we have always used. Rather, we must innovate. To that end, Advancements in Agricultural Development held a Symposium on Methods of Agricultural Development Research and Practice in October 2023 on the University of Reading campus, co-hosted by the School of Agriculture, Policy and Development. We invited recognized experts from around the world to develop papers focused on innovative methods of agricultural development practice or innovative methods of agricultural development research. We had ten papers presented that were authored by 26 researchers representing 13 universities/research institutes in 6 countries. Sixteen authors attended the symposium to present their papers. A healthy dialogue followed each presentation to help authors refine their papers, resulting in the articles published in this special issue. A summary of each article is provided.

When energy doesn’t add up: use of an energyshed framework in assessing progress towards renewable energy transitions

Global progress in energy transitions to support climate mitigation goals has been slower than anticipated; this has prompted shifts away from traditional paradigms of regulated energy ownership towards a model of energy democratization by local communities and individuals. For example, in the United States, local communities in over 250 cities, counties, and states have made pledges to reach 100% renewable electrification by target dates ranging from 2020 to 2050. However, the availability of infrastructure and the competition for renewable energy resources, as well as lack of awareness of these limitations, present significant barriers to overcome. In this study, we explored a subset of 31 of these cities to assess their current electricity generation and how much further they have to go to meet their goals. Through an energyshed framework, we estimated powerplant electricity allocation to each city assuming competition for power from various renewable and non-renewable resource types, as well as look at the ‘best case scenario’ assuming 100% allocation of renewable-sourced electricity for a handful of cities in order to understand the existing and planned energy mixes for 2021 and the following 20 years. It is likely most cities will meet 10% of their energy demand with renewable energy, with best cases scenarios reaching between 35% and 65% renewable penetration, within the next 20–30 years. This highlights the need for infrastructural development in the energy sector, as well as intentional planning efforts in order to make these energy goals a reality.

Managing the shortfall risk of target date funds by overfunding

Abstract Is it possible to achieve almost riskless, nonfluctuating investment payoffs in the long run, at a fraction of the traditional funding requirement, using equity investments? What is their shortfall risk? These questions are motivated by the need to increase yields, while limiting the variability of investment results. We show how to use contingent claims, denominated in units of a stock index, to achieve an almost riskless investment outcome. To control the risk of the proposed hedge portfolios, we introduce an overfunded scheme and show its reliability using bootstrapping. Results show that a modest amount of overfunding is an effective risk-management approach that brings the probability of not achieving the target to less than 1 percent. Our results are based on the use of the minimal market model and a change of numeraire. Robustness tests support their validity under different market specifications.

Sustainable Development Goal-Six (SDG-6) Water and Sanitation, Impact on Nigeria, Assessing the Intersection with Public Health and Globalization: A Systematic Literature Review

Aim and scope: The important developmental encounter in the low-income country such as Nigeria has created challenges to make available and sustain the management of safe water and adequate sanitation for the citizenry. The poor access to portable drinking water, and inadequate sanitation practices poses a huge problems in Nigeria predominantly the public health burden linked with the polluted water and its sources, and poor sanitation practices. In this systematic review, the nature and scale of water availability, contamination and transmission of water borne disease and their intersection with public health in Nigeria were explored. The review further evaluated the effectiveness of global community intervention in addressing the anomalies in relation to the Sustainable Development Goals Six (SDG 6)-water and sanitation, and issues hampering the progress in Nigeria towards the target date of 2030. Methods: I searched through the MEDLINE database to select the research articles associated with water availability, water contamination, water quality, sanitation practices, waterborne disease transmission, water (i.e., WASH-Water Sanitation and Hygiene), public health, portable water and sustainability. An analysis of both observational and interventional studies was undertaken. For each study, content analysis was performed to identify the relevant terms such as portable water availability, WASH, disease transmission, public health related outcomes, and to the keydeductions of the study. Results: Strategic themes arising through the search included that about 66.3 million Nigerians lacks access to safe drinking water with no substantial progress in providing portable water for all in Nigeria. Despites various approach by government and other agencies in ensuring water quality and its safety, waterborne disease remains one of the significant public health challenges. Availability of water and the poor sanitation specifically among the rural dwellers are of great importance, being a vital factor in the spread of waterborne disease. The review revealed the common diseases associated with drinking water, and typhoid with the highest occurrence, others are cholera, dracunculiasi, hepatitis and Filariasi. Awareness, adequate funding, infrastructural development and interventions programme are recommended approach to reduce WASH and public health outcomes. Conclusions: Significant water unavailability and poor sanitation practicescumulate as public health burdens, presenting solid evidence that shown water unavailability and sanitation intersecting with public health. Hence, addressing portable water availability and environmental sanitation has a potential of reducing public health diseases with significant impact on SDG achievement.

Target Date Funds and International Capital Flows

Target Date Funds and International Capital Flows

Missing the Target? Retirement Expectations and Target Date Funds

Missing the Target? Retirement Expectations and Target Date Funds