Tanzania National Panel Survey Research Articles

Farm Size, Soil Investment, and Quality: Theory and Evidence from a Panel Data Set in Tanzania

Achieving sustainable agricultural development is a vital concern as soil degradation poses a growing threat to the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in the developing world. Previous literature has highlighted the potential for rural population growth to exacerbate this concern by leading to smaller farm sizes and crop production on marginal land. This paper uses a theoretical model to demonstrate a countervailing effect consistent with the work of Esther Boserup: Smaller farm sizes can encourage greater intensification and investment in the soil. Using panel data from the Tanzania National Panel Survey, I test the model and find some evidence consistent with this effect. Smaller farms are associated with greater organic, but not inorganic, fertilizer application, and higher levels of some soil quality proxies. These results suggest that if key resource and information constraints are overcome, population growth need not be an obstacle, and can be a boon, to sustainable agricultural development.

The effects of environmental and non-environmental shocks on livelihoods and migration in Tanzania

Disruptive events and calamities can have major consequences for households in the predominantly agrarian communities of Eastern Africa. Here, we analyze the impacts of environmental and non-environmental shocks on migration in Tanzania using panel models and longitudinal data from the Tanzania National Panel Survey between 2008 and 2013. Shocks are defined as events that lead to losses in income, assets, or both. We find shocks resulting from changes in environmental conditions to be positively related to migration over time with more recent shocks exerting the strongest impact. According to our estimates, the probability of having a household member absent increases by 0.81% with each additional environmental shock encountered in the past 12 months. Different types of shocks have differential effects on migration with the strongest effects being observed for shocks with an immediate impact on household livelihoods, including through livestock losses and crop damage. Households in the sample are differently affected with rural, agriculturally dependent, and poor households without alternative income sources showing the strongest changes in their migration behavior in response to shocks. Our study adds important insights into the relationship between disruptive events and migration in Eastern Africa considering a broad time window and the compounding influence of different shock types. Our findings have a range of policy implications highlighting the need for a comprehensive perspective on household responses in times of distress that considers the interplay of different shock types as well as the role of context in shaping mobility patterns.

The Contribution of Climate-Smart Agriculture to Reducing Climate-Related Risks to Rain-Fed Maize Production: Insights from Tanzania’s Semi-Arid and Sub-Humid Regions

Adaptation responses of rain-fed smallholder farming systems to climate change and variability have become more unpredictable. Semi-arid and sub-humid regions are most affected by knowledge gaps on climate change adaptation strategies. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices are crucial because they ensure predictable and effective adaptation responses that reduce crop failures. To determine potential new strategies for farm-level climate change adaptation, this study examined the implications of three CSA practices on rain-fed maize production: crop diversification, intercropping, and planting date adjustment. Plot-level data were obtained from the Tanzania National Panel Survey (TNPS) throughout waves 1 (2008/2009) and 2 (2010/2011). The consistency of the adaptation responses was evaluated using test-retest reliability. The findings showed that intercropping and splitting plots to plant crops other than maize was an analogue for crop diversification and reduced variability of maize grain yields. The panel linear regression model revealed that the yields of maize grains were positively correlated with intercropping and crop diversification (plot division). Moreover, the results of the meta-analysis showed that intercropping, crop diversification, and planting date adjustments could greatly increase smallholder rain-fed maize farmers’ resistance to the effects of climate variability and change. The government and non-governmentalorganizations should be encouraged to provide funding for agricultural extension education, which is a major factor in the implementation of CSA techniques.

Maximizing impact: The power of combining land tenure formalization and productive social safety nets programmes in Tanzania

While standard economic theory considers formal property rights as vital for agricultural productivity and economic prosperity, its potential can be limited by absence of important complementary factors necessary for the mechanism to operate. This study sheds some light on complementarities between Land Tenure Formalization (LTF) and Productive Social Safety Nets (PSSN) programmes in Tanzania. Using the Tanzania national panel survey data (2020/21 wave), we employed a doubly robust Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment (IPWRA) to estimate the stand-alone and joint impacts of LTF and PSSN on farm productivity, consumption and food security. We find that joint participation in LTF and PSSN programmes significantly improve farm productivity, households’ consumption and food security. We show that joint impacts of LTF and PSSN are greater than sum of stand-alone impacts suggesting a great complementarity between the programmes. Our cross-tenure analysis suggests a stronger joint impact of statutory LTF with PSSN than that of customary LTF with PSSN, and the true opposite for stand-alone impacts. The study recommends the design of pro-poor productive interventions that incorporate potentially complementary interventions for more optimal outcomes. We suggest for further research on possible interactions between LTF and other anti-poverty interventions for more clarity and sound policy implications.

Explaining the rise of economic and rural-urban inequality in clean cooking fuel use in Tanzania

Despite the high rate of economic growth and electrification in the last two decades in Tanzania, only 6.9 % of the nation's households have access to clean cooking fuel technology which is concentrated among the rich urban households. Analysing data from two waves of the Tanzania National Panel Survey (2014/15 and 2020/21), we estimate the economic and rural-urban inequalities in the use of clean cooking fuel. Using the concentration curve, Erreygers concentration index and non-linear Fairlie decomposition, we find an increase in economic inequality and rural-urban inequality in the use of clean cooking fuel. Based on our analysis, factors such as the household head's education, household economic status and household connection to electricity contribute to the rural-urban inequality in the use of clean cooking fuel. Policy changes are vital for ensuring both rural and urban households have equitable access to education, electricity connection and household economic status to address inequality in the use of clean cooking fuel.

Climate Variability, Temporal Migration, and Household Welfare among Agricultural Households in Tanzania

Climate change has been one of the factors inducing people to migrate internally. As a result of climate change risks, the temporal migration strategy has been employed as an insurance strategy to cope with its impacts. This study analyses whether climate variability is a driving factor for temporal migration among agricultural households and whether such migration shields farmers from agricultural shocks. The study used three waves of the Tanzania National Panel Survey data and employed various descriptive and panel-data econometric techniques in the analyses. Results indicated that climate variability has no effect on overall agricultural production but has a significant effect on maize production, a staple food crop in Tanzania. Moreover, high market value from production was associated with a lower chance that climate variability forced a household member to migrate. In cases where climate change leads to temporal migration, the migrants may shield the household from large welfare losses by bringing back their earned income with new skills. More investments in adaptation to climate change can reduce temporal migration. This will facilitate retaining productive forces, thus boosting the rural economy where agriculture is commonly practiced.

Climatic conditions and household food security: Evidence from Tanzania

Food security and adequate nutrition are critical for achieving progress toward sustainable development. Two billion people worldwide experience moderate to severe food insecurity, and rates of hunger have increased over the past several years after declining steadily for decades. The FAO attributes this increase in large part to climate change, though empirical evidence on the relationship between climatic conditions and food security remains limited. We examine this question by linking nationally representative longitudinal data from four rounds of the Tanzania National Panel Survey to high-resolution gridded climate data. We then estimate a set of fixed effects regression models to understand the linkages between recent rainy season precipitation and temperature and two indicators of household food security: Food Consumption Score (FCS) and reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI). We find that low rainfall—particularly dry and cool conditions—is negatively associated with food security. Moving from a typical rainfall year to a particularly dry one increases the risk of being food insecure on both measures simultaneously by 13 percentage points. This suggests that a lack of rainfall impedes households’ ability to access food, likely through reduced agricultural production and increased food prices, leading to lower dietary diversity and food shortages. Vulnerability is higher among households with fewer working age members, suggesting that households with a greater supply of labor can better withstand droughts. As climate change alters precipitation and temperature patterns over the coming decades, policies to increase resilience will be critical for improving food security, particularly among populations heavily reliant on agriculture.

Agriculture commercialisation, household dietary diversity and nutrition in Tanzania

Availability and accessibility of proper amount and variety of foods are important determinants of household nutritional status. Agriculture commercialisation can be a useful means of promoting efficiency in agriculture, increasing agricultural household income and consequently, improving household food and nutrition security. Using the first three waves of Tanzania National Panel Survey data, this paper employs panel data models to analyse the linkages between agriculture commercialisation, dietary diversity, and nutrition status in Tanzania. It contributes to the literature by assessing those linkages across different income groups. The study finds that agriculture commercialisation has a significant effect on dietary diversity for the lower-income group; but not for the whole sample. Education levels of the head of household and of the highly educated female member, overall income levels and area of land cultivated have positive and significant effects on dietary diversity; whereas age of the head has negative and significant effect. It also finds that agriculture commercialisation and household dietary diversity both have an insignificant effect on child stunting, wasting, and underweight even for the lower-income group. Findings imply that policies favouring commercialisation and dietary diversification may not necessarily translate to improving child nutrition. Addressing nutrition challenges requires all-encompassing strategies.

The Effects of Household Shocks on Children’s Schooling in Tanzania

This study examines effects of household shocks on children’s schooling in Tanzania. Using data from the Tanzania National Panel Survey - 2008–2013 and the randomeffects probit regression model, the study analyses the link between the shocks and child schooling, measured by school attendance and truancy. The results show that the shocks (weather, food price rises and death of a family member) affect school attendance. Furthermore, education of the head of the household increases the probability of child school attendance and reduces the probability of child truancy. Access to credit is found to increase the probability of child school attendance. Therefore, measures to help the poor and marginalized households to afford their children’s education include improving their access to credit and establishing pro-poor policies, such as improving irrigation schemes and promoting drought-resistant crops, which would enhance agricultural production, increase incomes and improve vulnerability to shocks.

Impacts of agricultural taxation in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Insights from agricultural produce cess in Tanzania

AbstractThis article analyses the economic impacts of agricultural produce cess in Tanzania and compares its effectiveness with alternative reform options relying on its removal or reduction. Produce cess is one of the common forms of agricultural taxation in Sub‐Saharan Africa. This analysis is performed using the farm‐household model FSSIM‐Dev, which is applied to a country representative sample of 3134 individual farm households taken from the 2012/2013 Tanzania National Panel Survey. Simulations show that the current produce cess is rather high and its removal or reduction would increase production intensity and boost farm income, ranging between +2% and +21% depending on options and regions. These positive impacts are driven by land productivity improvement rather than area reallocation. The largest impacts are experienced in northern and western highlands. Large farms and farms specialized in cash crops tend to gain more from the abolishment or reduction of produce cess. The increase in both production and income is, however, not sufficient to significantly reduce rural poverty and improve nutrition security. Finally, results show that a uniform cess rate of 1% for all crops seems to be the most appropriate policy option. It gives the best trade‐off between government revenue loss and farmers’ economic gain.

The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Tanzania

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Tanzania focusing on maize and paddy as the staple food crops. We use Tanzania National Panel Survey (NPS) data for 2008/9, 2010/11, and 2012/13. The results suggest a significant impact of weather variables – temperature and rainfall, and their shocks on agricultural productivity in Tanzania. Also, farmers’ education appears to reduce the impact of temperature shocks on productivity. These findings imply a need for policy intervention to ensure that farmers are equipped for climate change adaptation as well as the use of modern farming technologies and inputs.

An Econometric Analysis of Maize Farmer’s Choice of Land Ownership Systems: Evidence Using Panel Data from Tanzania

Abstract This paper determines the socioeconomic and physical characteristics that influence maize farmer’s choice of land ownership systems in Tanzania, i.e., owned, sharecropped, and rented title land. The paper uses the Tanzania National Panel Survey (TZNPS) data basing on 2,073 observations comprising of a sample size of 691 households in three consecutive waves 2008/2009, 2010/2011, and 2012/2013. Using a t-test for mean comparison, the paper found that there is a significant difference between male and female-headed households across socioeconomic and physical factors determining the choice of land ownership systems among maize smallholder farmers. Moreover, the paper findings revealed that 90 percent, 7 percent, and 3 percent of the sampled maize smallholder farmers chose to farm under-owned, shared, and rented title land system respectively. Furthermore, the econometric analysis which is grounded from the multinomial logit regression model showed that accessibility, farm size, quantity harvested, accessibility of extension services, gender, household size, and age are all pertinent in influencing the smallholder maize farmer’s choice of land ownership. The paper recommends that these characteristics of the smallholder maize producers should be critically considered when formulating any land and agricultural policies to enhance proper decision making by smallholder farmers on the choice of land ownership system that may led to sustainable agricultural production, productivity, and food security in developing countries particularly in Tanzania.

Biosecurity in Village and Other Free-Range Poultry-Trying to Square the Circle?

Village poultry commonly suffer significant disease related losses and a plethora of biosecurity measures is widely advocated as a means to reduce morbidity and mortality. This paper uses a household economy perspective to assess some “economic” considerations determining biosecurity investments of village poultry keepers. It draws on the 2012/13 Tanzania National Panel Survey (TZ-NPS), which covered 1,228 poultry-keeping households. Disease was the most frequently reported cause of bird losses and, in the majority of households, accounted for more than half of reported bird losses. However, given that poultry rarely contributed more than 10% to total annual household income, for 95% of households the value of birds lost to disease represented <10% of annual income. The value placed on poultry within households may vary by gender and the overall figure may mask differential intra-household impacts. The break-even cost for various levels of reduction of disease losses is estimated using a partial budget analysis. Even if achieved at no cost, a 75% reduction in disease-associated mortality would only result in a one percent increase of annual household income. Thus, to the “average” village poultry-keeping household, investments in poultry may not be of high priority, even when cost-effective. Where risks of disease spread impact on the wider community and generate significant externalities, poultry keepers must be supported by wider societal actions rather than being expected to invest in biosecurity for purely personal gain.

Towards Dynamic Assessment of Determinants of Household Vulnerability to Poverty in Tanzania

Abstract The paper examines the determinants of vulnerability to expected poverty in Tanzania. Following Landau et al. (2012), Chaudhuri (2000) and Chaudhuri et al. (2003) on estimating Vulnerability to Expected Poverty (VEP), the paper uses a three waves of Tanzania National Panel Survey Data for Tanzania collected between 2008/2009, 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 to find that being employed in agriculture, residing in rural area and household size turns out to be significantly more likely to be poor in the future, at a given consumption level and in all cross-section combination. It also appeared that most of the variables were statistically insignificant at influencing the conditional variance of future consumption across household characteristics. Lastly, nearly 39.42% and 59.49% of households who were poor in 2008 turned out to be less vulnerable in 2010 and 2012 respectively and the rest turned out to be high vulnerable. Thus, consumption stabilization strategies are likely to be influential if they target families whose household head is aging.

All that is gold does not glitter: Income and nutrition in Tanzania

A substantial acceleration in improving nutrition is required to eradicate malnutrition by 2030. Income growth and increased labor productivity are key to realize this, but some income sources and employment sectors might be more effective in reducing malnutrition than others. We investigate the link between income and nutrition in rural Tanzania, using two rounds of the Tanzania National Panel Survey. We use both monetary and non-monetary measures of food consumption, and analyze besides caloric intake also the intake of important micronutrients, such as iron, zinc and vitamin A, and nutrient deficiencies. We compare income by employment sectors and by gender of the earner. We find that income growth is important for improving household nutrition, both in terms of food quantity and quality. We find that a higher share of income from agricultural self-employment as well as jointly earned income is strongly correlated with caloric and micronutrient intake across households. We do not find evidence to support the assertion that a higher share of income earned solely by women is associated with improved nutrition. Our results imply that closing the labor productivity gap between agriculture and rural non-farm sectors, and raising rural incomes from within agriculture, is a more effective strategy to improve nutrition in rural Tanzania than diversifying income away from agriculture.

Parental Disability and Children's Educational Outcomes: Evidence from Tanzania

ABSTRACT This paper examines the relationship between parental disability and children's educational outcomes in Tanzania. This paper uses data from the 2010–2011 and 2014–2015 waves of the Tanzania National Panel Survey (TNPS) and a fixed effects estimation approach. The findings of this paper show that parental disability is associated with children being less likely to enrol in school and pass examinations. Also, we find a negative association between parental disability and the hours that children spend on their studies. However, we find no statistically significant association between parental disability and grades completed by children. We identify higher medical expenditures, lower educational expenditures and higher hours spent collecting firewood and fetching water as the potential mechanisms through which parental disability is negatively associated with children's educational outcomes.

Does sustainable intensification of maize production enhance child nutrition? Evidence from rural Tanzania

AbstractFood insecurity, child malnutrition, and land degradation remain persistent problems in sub‐Saharan Africa. Agricultural sustainable intensification (SI) has been proposed as a possible solution to simultaneously address these challenges. Yet there is little empirical evidence on if agricultural management practices and inputs that contribute to SI from an environmental standpoint do indeed improve food security or child nutrition. We use three waves of data from the nationally‐representative Tanzania National Panel Survey to analyze the child nutrition effects of rural households’ adoption of farming practices that can contribute to the SI of maize production. We group households into four categories based on their use of three soil fertility management practices on their maize plots: “Nonadoption”; “Intensification” (use of inorganic fertilizer only); “Sustainable” (use of organic fertilizer, maize–legume intercropping, or both); and “SI” (joint use of inorganic fertilizer with organic fertilizer and/or maize–legume intercropping). The results from multinomial endogenous treatment effects models with the Mundlak–Chamberlain device suggest that use of practices in the “SI” category is associated with improvements in children's height‐for‐age and weight‐for‐age z‐scores relative to “Nonadoption,” particularly for children aged 25–59 months. These effects appear to come through improvements in both crop income and productivity.

Gender effects of agricultural cropping work and nutrition status in Tanzania.

Although agriculture is an important source of food and income for food expenditures, women’s involvement in the agricultural cropping production process could increase their work load and reduce their BMI. Using three waves of the Tanzania National Panel Survey, we investigate the extent to which time spent in agricultural crop production affects women and men’s nutritional status among non-overweight individuals (age 20–65). We also test whether the impact of agricultural cropping work on nutritional status is modified by access to agricultural equipment, and whether gender differences exist. The study finds that time spent in agricultural cropping work is negatively associated with BMI for non-overweight individuals, albeit of small magnitude, and this finding is consistent across different crop production processes. This suggests that agricultural interventions should not ignore the implications of increasing work intensities on nutrition. While increased agricultural production could improve nutritional status by increasing agricultural income and food, the gains in nutritional status could be offset by an increase in work effort of doing agricultural work. Our results suggest that it is possible that access to equipment reduced effort for one production activity, but increased work for other activities in the production process, such as in harvesting. Furthermore, we find that the BMI of women in households with a hand powered sprayer is positively related to time spent in weeding, fertilizing, and non-harvest activities, while it is negatively correlated for men. It is possible that access to a hand powered sprayer may have helped reduce women’s work, for example, in weeding, while this was not the case for men’s work such as in ridging and fertilizing. Further disaggregation of agricultural activities in the dataset would have been helpful to provide more insights on the gender roles.

Crop Diversification and Child Health: Empirical Evidence From Tanzania

Malnutrition is recognized as a major issue among low-income households in developing countries with long-term implications for economic development. Recently, crop diversification has been considered as a strategy to improve nutrition and health. However, there is no systematic empirical evidence on the role played by crop diversification in improving human health. We use three waves of the Tanzania National Panel Survey to test the effect of crop diversification on child health. We implement two instrumental variable approaches, and perform several robustness checks to address potential endogeneity concerns. We find a positive but small effect of an increase in crop diversification on child height-for-age z-score, through greater dietary diversity. The effect is larger for subsistence households and children living in households with limited market access.

Temperature shocks, short-term growth and poverty thresholds: Evidence from rural Tanzania

Using the LSMS-ISA Tanzania National Panel Survey by the World Bank, we study the relationship between rural household consumption growth and temperature shocks over the period 2008–2013. Temperature shocks have a negative and significant impact on household growth if their initial consumption lies below a critical threshold. As such, temperature shocks slow income convergence among households, at least in the short run. Crop yields and total factor productivity in agriculture are the main transmission channels. Extrapolating from short-term elasticities to long-run phenomena, these findings support the Schelling Conjecture: economic development would help poor farming households to reduce the impacts of climate change. Hence, closing the yield gap, modernizing agriculture and favouring the structural transformation of the economy are all crucial issues for adaptation of farmers to the negative effects of global warming.