Vulnerability Assessment System Research Articles

Research Framework of Regional Economic-Ecological System Vulnerability Evolution and Adaptive Leap under the Background of Climate Change

This study focuses on the vulnerability evolution mechanism of regional economic-ecological systems and its adaptive leapfrogging path under the background of climate change. Based on the theory of complex adaptive systems and the framework of social-ecological system coupling, a regional economic-ecological system vulnerability assessment index system was constructed. Using the system dynamics model and scenario simulation method, the impact transmission mechanism of climate change on regional economic-ecological systems was analyzed, and the spatiotemporal evolution law of system vulnerability was revealed. The study found that climate change has aggravated the vulnerability of regional economic-ecological systems by changing resource endowments, disturbing industrial structure, and affecting ecological service functions. In response to this problem, this study proposed a leapfrogging path based on adaptive management: including building a climate-resilient industrial system, optimizing resource allocation efficiency, enhancing ecosystem service functions, and improving regional adaptive governance mechanisms. The research results have important theoretical value and practical significance for promoting regional sustainable development and ecological civilization construction.

The measurement of agricultural disaster vulnerability in China and implications for land-supported agricultural resilience building

Climate change has recently induced an increase in natural disasters worldwide, which has affected agriculture, a sector highly sensitive to climatic alterations. The paper measures agricultural disaster vulnerability of China in the period 2000–2020 by establishing vulnerability assessment system, and examines how agricultural infrastructure correlates with agricultural disaster vulnerability by constructing grey relational analysis model. Research results indicate that China's agricultural disaster vulnerability presents an overall decreasing trend during the research period. This is mainly attributed to the decreased disaster exposure and increased adaptability to disaster. Spatially, the agricultural disaster vulnerability in the northeastern, central and southwestern regions of China is higher than other regions. Agricultural transportation and communication infrastructure are found to be more influential to agricultural disaster vulnerability followed by irrigation and power facilities. Implications are proposed to enhance agricultural resilience to climate disasters in China.

Changes of ecological vulnerability in areas with different urban expansion patterns— A case study in the Yanhe river basin, China

Urban expansion has the potentiality to disrupt ecosystems and form highly fragile urban landscapes. However, studies investigating the impact of different urban expansion patterns on the ecological environments are relatively limited. Taking the Yanhe river basin, a typical basin in a loess region, as a case study, we developed an ecological vulnerability assessment system as well as assessed the main drivers of ecological vulnerability for different time periods (1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018). Additionally, we classified each urban expansion region into three different patterns according to the landscape expansion index, and analyzed changes in the ecological vulnerability under these three diverse patterns. Finally, the Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test was applied to compare the factors for the different changes in ecological vulnerability across different urban expansion patterns. Our investigation also aimed to elucidate the impacts of different urban expansion patterns on ecological vulnerability and identify key physical-social-economic-climatic drivers. The results indicate that the ecological vulnerability index (EVI) of the study area is decreasing gradually from the peak value of 0.459 in 2000 to 0.383 in 2018. Habitat quality index is found to be the most influencing factor, followed by aridity index and building density (mean q of 0.53, 0.46, and 0.42, respectively). Our study also reveals that the outlying expansion areas have the greatest increase in EVI at 0.38, with edge and infill expansions at 0.31 and 0.27, respectively. It is also found that when the overall environment is improving, the outlying expansion areas have the smallest decrease in EVI. Initial ecological vulnerability and key drivers may explain this difference. Therefore, results of this study indicate that the ecological impacts of diverse urban expansion patterns are significantly different, among which outlying expansions should receive prioritized attention.

A Case Study: Evaluation of Urban Flood Resilience Based on Fuzzy Mathematics and VIKOR Method in Ulsan Metropolitan City, South Korea

In this study, fuzzy mathematics and VIKOR were employed to develop a flood vulnerability assessment system for Ulsan Metropolitan City, South Korea in 2018. HEC-HMS model was used to simulate the major rivers' runoff in Ulsan Metropolitan City, and HEC-RAS model was used to convert the 1-D runoff simulation results into 2-D results of inundation map, while the simulation results were exhibited through ArcMap. Hazards, sensitivity and adaptivity were selected as the three evaluation indicators for fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and pressure resilience, state resilience and response resilience were utilized as the indicators for ranking and comparison of the VIKOR method for local governments (administrative districts) of Ulsan Metropolitan City. As the result, Dong-gu district, Ulju-jun County and Nam-gu district showed the best results by both the fuzzy mathematical and the VIKOR method in hazard and pressure, sensitivity and state, adaptivity and response indicator. Fuzzy mathematics and the VIKOR method provide two different ways to study the flood protection capacity of Ulsan Metropolitan City, comparing the historical statistics, VIKOR method's evaluation results match well with the flooding statistics in Ulsan Metropolitan City.

Identification of the critical factors in flood vulnerability assessment based on an improved DEMATEL method under uncertain environments

With accelerated urbanization, the expansion of urban construction land and the increase in concrete pavement have led to a continuous decline in the natural permeability of the urban surface. This makes it difficult for rainwater in urban areas to infiltrate quickly into the ground, which may lead to urban flooding disasters in cases of heavy rainfall. In recent years, the frequency of urban flooding disasters has been increasing, posing a great safety threat to communities and residents as well as property damage. Therefore, it is important to build a scientific and reasonable community flooding vulnerability assessment system to improve the community emergency response capacity and reduce the losses caused by flooding disasters. In this paper, 94 indicators for community flooding vulnerability assessment are collected by combining literature research and field surveys. The newly proposed fuzzy language expression method based on pentagonal fuzzy numbers (PFN) and the proportional two-tuple linguistic representation (P2TLR) are used as the first step of indicator evaluation and screening, and PFN-P2TLR with the two-step DEMATEL method are combined as the second step of indicator screening. Finally, 23 representative evaluation indicators belonging to the dependent variable are selected. Following a thorough investigation, it was found that “resident characteristics”, “regional economic strength”, “community precipitation status” and “institutional soundness” are the four most influential factors for community resilience to flooding, and these indicators have a significant impact on other indicators. The research results provide a reliable basis and specific guidance suggestions for community flooding vulnerability assessment, which is crucial for further reducing the occurrence of flooding disasters and mitigating the social and economic losses caused by them.

Virtual‐physical power flow method for cyber‐physical power system contingency and vulnerability assessment

AbstractTraditional power systems have evolved into cyber‐physical power systems (CPPS) with the integration of information and communication technologies. CPPS can be considered as a typical hierarchical control system that can be divided into two parts: the power grid and the communication network. CPPS will face new vulnerabilities which can have network contingencies and cascading consequences. To address this challenge, a virtual‐physical power flow (VPPF) method is proposed for the vulnerability assessment of CPPS. The proposed method contains dual power flows, one is to simulate a virtual power flow from decision‐making units, and the other is to simulate a physical power flow. In addition, a novel hierarchical control model is proposed that includes four layers of CPPS: the physical layer, the secondary device layer, the regional control layer, and the national control layer. The model is based on IEEE test cases using data and structures provided by MATPOWER. Denial‐of‐service (DoS) and false data injection (FDI) are simulated as two major cyber‐attacks in CPPS. A novel vulnerability index is proposed that consists of system voltage, network latency, and node betweenness as three key indicators. This is a comprehensive and adaptive index because it encompasses both cyber and physical system characteristics and can be applied to several types of cyber‐attacks. The results of the vulnerability assessment are compared in national and regional control structures of CPPS to evaluate the vulnerability of cyber‐physical nodes.

Vulnerability Assessment and Future Prediction of Urban Waterlogging—A Case Study of Fuzhou

Evaluating waterlogging vulnerability and analyzing its characteristics and future trends can provide scientific support for urban disaster prevention and reduction. For this study, taking Fuzhou as an example, an urban waterlogging vulnerability assessment system was constructed from the three dimensions of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The entropy method was used to evaluate urban waterlogging vulnerability in Fuzhou during 2014–2020. The use of CA–Markov to predict waterlogging vulnerability in 2023, 2026, and 2029 in Fuzhou is an important innovation reported in this paper. Study results showed that: (1) Vulnerability to waterlogging in Fuzhou follows a gradually decreasing “center-southeast” distribution pattern, with Level 5 areas mainly located in Cangshan District, Gulou District, and Taijiang District. (2) Changes in waterlogging vulnerability in Fuzhou from 2014 to 2020 can be divided into five change modes, with changing areas, mainly of the late-change type, accounting for 14.13% of the total area. (3) Prediction accuracy verification shows that the CA–Markov model is suitable for predicting waterlogging vulnerability in Fuzhou with high accuracy and a kappa coefficient of 0.9079. (4) From 2020 to 2029, the vulnerability level of the eastern coastal region of Fuzhou is expected to generally increase, and the vulnerability degree will continue to deteriorate. The proportion of Level 5 vulnerable areas will increase by 4.5%, and the growth rate will increase faster and faster with the passage of time.

Determining the patterns of using information protection systems at financial institutions in order to improve the level of financial security

This paper reports a study aimed at determining the features of using information protection systems at financial institutions in order to improve the level of financial security. It has been proven that under the conditions of digitization of the business environment, information provision is the basis of financial security at both the macro and micro levels. Information has become a strategic resource that needs protection due to the spread of cybercrime. The level of efficiency of information provision and the level of financial security of Ukraine was determined, and the relationship between them was confirmed. Attention is focused on the need to improve these indicators. It has been proven that an effective information protection system enables economic entities to resist dangers and threats. It was substantiated that the intensification of the processes of digitalization of economic activity had created prerequisites for the growth of risks and threats to the integral, uninterrupted, protected circulation of information resources of financial institutions, which leads to huge financial losses. This requires improvement of existing information protection systems. A topology of information protection systems has been presented. An algorithm for building effective information protection systems of financial institutions was proposed, which includes system vulnerability assessment, system assessment for compliance with security standards, penetration testing, and application assessment. Its application would allow financial market entities to promptly respond to real and potential threats, increase the level of information security, and ensure financial stability. The results of the study could also be used by state and local authorities to devise the principles of financial security management at the macro level under the conditions of the digital economy

An Enhanced Earthquake Risk Analysis using H3 Spatial Indexing

Risk assessment is the first step in disaster risk reduction and crucial for types of disasters with potentially significant impacts, such as earthquakes. Besides the direct impact of very devastating shocks, earthquakes can also trigger cascading events that are no less damaging such as landslides, liquefaction, and tsunamis. This study aims to apply the H3 spatial indexing system to improve earthquake risk assessment using Sorong City as a case study, and compare the result of H3-based risk assessment with the normative risk assessment in Indonesia as defined by relevant Perka BNPB (Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana/National Disaster Management Authority) 2/2012. H3 is an open-source geospatial indexing system developed by Uber, which utilizes a hierarchical hexagonal grid for indexing, calculations, and visualization. The hexagonal cells in the grid have equidistant neighbors and possess the property of expanding neighboring rings, approximating circles and optimizing space filling. The H3 spatial index finds extensive applications in earthquake hazard, vulnerability, capacity, and risk assessment systems. The value of each parameter is entered into each hexagon so that in the end each hexagon has its risk index value. The study shows that the use of H3 in earthquake risk assessment can provide a more detailed level of analysis and indirectly does not depend on regional administrative boundaries. Technically, this advantage provides a more efficient calculation method and is also easier to modify partially both spatially and in terms of the parameters used. Based on the performance evaluation results on the spatial join aspect, H3 provides much faster performance compared to traditional indexing systems. Hence, the H3 spatial index will be very useful to meet the need for an earthquake risk assessment on a larger scale with a higher level of resolution.

A socio-technical approach for the assessment of critical infrastructure system vulnerability in extreme weather events

A socio-technical approach for the assessment of critical infrastructure system vulnerability in extreme weather events

A reliable ecological vulnerability approach based on the construction of optimal evaluation systems and evolutionary tracking models

Ecological vulnerability assessment is an effective means to monitor ecosystem stability, and its application has been an emerging hotspot. Although some progress has been made in the study of ecological vulnerability, there are few studies on the accuracy of the evaluation index and the tracking of the evolution process. Therefore, this study discussed the impact of the improved ecological vulnerability assessment index system and spatial scale on the ecological vulnerability of the target area, and conducted a confirmatory analysis of it. Taking Weinan City, a typical city in the Yellow River Basin as the research object, the evolution tracking model of ecological vulnerability was established, and the internal relationship between the dimensions of impact factors and ecological vulnerability index (EVI) was analyzed. The results showed that (1) the correlation between EVI and NDVI of the optimized index system (e) (ISe) was −0.793, and the R-value of linear fitting was 0.63, which indicated that the optimized evaluation results were closer to the actual situation. (2) From 1999 to 2019, the overall ecological condition of Weinan was positive, with the distribution characteristics of low EVI in northern and southern mountain cities and high EVI in central plain cities. (3) Hierarchical transformation of EVI in the combination area where ecological vulnerability remained stable and degraded accounted for 75.24%, indicating that the overall evolution direction of ecological vulnerability changed to a good direction. The results can provide an effective way to optimize and validate the ecological vulnerability assessment system and track the evolution of ecological vulnerability effectively.

Application of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in Food Security During Flood Disaster in Malaysia: A Narrative Review

Disaster risk reduction (DRR) plays essential roles in ensuring food security to avoid adverse social, economic and financial implications to the disaster victims. This article aims to review existing DRR strategies in food security during flood disasters and recommend strategies that can be adapted into policies in Malaysia according to the Sendai Framework. Sendai Framework provides comprehensive, globally recognized priority themes in DRR while highlighting governmental and stakeholders’ responsibility. A literature review was carried out by searching available published literatures from online databases and selected information used in this review is taken from articles, journals, reports, national reports, news, and thesis regarding the topic from November 2021 to January 2022. This review revealed that DRR strategies of food security during flood disasters in Malaysia lack one out of 14 work areas in four priorities in the Sendai Framework, which is the national-level risk and vulnerability assessment system and tools. This article proposed 19 recommendations to improve eight work areas across all four priority areas to enhance national food security during flood disasters.

Enhancing the Vulnerability Assessment of Rainwater Pipe Networks: An Advanced Fuzzy Borda Combination Evaluation Approach

A vulnerability assessment system for rainwater pipe networks, comprising 13 indexes, was developed to facilitate the rational allocation and timely updating of urban storm drainage systems. An enhanced Borda combination evaluation method, which considers both the optimal and worst solutions, was proposed, accompanied by the operation procedure and numerical calculation method. Five stormwater systems in Central China were selected as case studies, and their vulnerability was evaluated and compared using five distinct evaluation methods: the entropy weight method, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), the efficacy coefficient method, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the improved fuzzy Borda combination evaluation method. The results demonstrated that the correlation coefficients between the fuzzy Borda combination evaluation method and the four individual evaluation methods were equal to or greater than 0.88, indicating strong agreement. Additionally, the compatibility of the combination evaluation method was found to be 0.96. This study holds both theoretical significance and practical value for preventing urban waterlogging and contributes to the development of more resilient urban storm drainage systems.

A Preventive Control Approach for Power System Vulnerability Assessment and Predictive Stability Evaluation

Early detection of cascading failures phenomena is a vital process for the sustainable operation of power systems. Within the scope of this work, a preventive control approach implementing an algorithm for selecting critical contingencies by a dynamic vulnerability analysis and predictive stability evaluation is presented. The analysis was carried out using a decision tree with a multi-parameter knowledge base. After the occurrence of an initial contingency, probable future contingencies are foreseen according to several vulnerability perspectives created by an adaptive vulnerability search module. Then, for cases identified as critical, a secure operational system state is proposed through a vulnerability-based, security-constrained, optimal power flow algorithm. The modular structure of the proposed algorithm enables the evaluation of possible vulnerable scenarios and proposes a strategy to alleviate the technical and economic impacts due to prospective cascading failures. The presented optimization methodology was tested using the IEEE-39 bus test network and a benchmark was performed between the proposed approach and a time domain analysis software model (EMTP). The obtained results indicate the potential of analysis approach in evaluating low-risk but high-impact vulnerabilities in power systems.

State of the Art of Oil and Gas Pipeline Vulnerability Assessments

In recent years, the safety of oil and gas pipelines has become a primary concern for the pipeline industry. This paper presents a comprehensive study of the vulnerability concepts that may be used to measure the safety status of pipeline systems. The origins of the vulnerability concepts are identified, the development and evolution of the vulnerability concepts are described, and the main connotations of the four levels of vulnerability concepts applied in different fields at this stage are summarized. Qualitative and quantitative methods of vulnerability assessment are comprehensively investigated, and the advantages and disadvantages, scope of application and key issues faced are compared and summarized. The research and analysis show that the vulnerability assessment of oil and gas pipelines is at a preliminary stage, and there is an urgent demand to establish a unified vulnerability concept and assessment system for oil and gas pipeline systems. The current qualitative or semi-quantitative assessment of pipeline vulnerability research lacks reasonable and scientific standards and bases for the classification of indicators and the determination of indicator scores, and it needs to focus on the establishment and improvement of quantitative assessment models.

Z-numbers based novel method for assessing groundwater specific vulnerability

Groundwater vulnerability assessment systems are developed to achieve a suitable method for protecting groundwater resources from contaminants. One of the well-known approaches for determining groundwater susceptibility is the DRASTIC method. This method considers seven effective parameters to evaluate groundwater vulnerability. Since groundwater contamination is often associated with uncertainty, this study applied the concept of the Z-number as a new generation of Fuzzy Logic (FL) to estimate the specific vulnerability of the aquifers. Unlike conventional FL models, which do not incorporate reliability, the Z-numbers include information constraint and reliability and can effectively explain uncertainty in human knowledge. To highlight this approach, the DRASTIC parameters (inputs) and nitrate concentration values (output) were used through two scenarios to estimate the specific vulnerability of the Ardabil and the Qorveh-Dehgolan plains (QDP) and the obtained results were compared with DRASTIC model as a benchmark model. The analysis of the results showed that the Z-number Based Modeling (ZBM), in addition to superiority to DRASTIC model, improved the quality of results compared to the classic FL by 53% (using seven inputs), 184% (using four inputs) in the Ardabil plain, and 127% (using seven inputs), 311% (using four inputs) in the QDP due to the consideration of data reliability and appropriate weighting of the rules. Also, the quality of the extracted Z-number-based rules in plains with high CV may be lower (such as the high CV of the Ardabil compared to the QDP). Therefore, the results of ZBM may not show a significant improvement over the conventional FL.

A fuzzy logic-based approach for groundwater vulnerability assessment.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment systems have been developed to protect groundwater resources. The DRASTIC model calculates the vulnerability index of the aquifer based on seven effective parameters. The application of expert opinion in rating and weighting parameters is the DRASTIC model's major weakness, which increases uncertainty. This study developed a Mamdani fuzzy logic (MFL) in combination with data mining to handle this uncertainty and predict the specific vulnerability. To highlight this approach, the susceptibility of the Qorveh-Dehgolan plain (QDP) and the Ardabil plain aquifers was investigated. The DRASTIC index was calculated between 63 and 160 for the Ardabil plain and between 39 and 146 for the QDP. Despite some similarities between vulnerability maps and nitrate concentration maps, the results of the DRASTIC model based on nitrate concentration cannot be verified according to Heidke skill score (HSS) and total accuracy (TA) criteria. Then the MFL was developed in two scenarios; the first included all seven parameters, whereas the second used only four parameters of the DRASTIC model. The results showed that, in the first scenario of the MFL modeling, TA and HSS values were respectively 0.75 and 0.51 for the Ardabil plain and 0.45 and 0.33 for the QDP. In addition, according to the TA and HSS values, the proposed model was more reliable and practical in groundwater vulnerability assessment than the traditional method, even using four input data.

Food Fraud Vulnerability Assessment in the Chinese Baijiu Supply Chain.

As a representative of Chinese alcoholic drinks, baijiu has developed into a mass-consumption commodity. Its simple industrial chain makes it a suitable target for fraudsters. In order to understand the differences and potential factors of fraud vulnerability among groups at various levels, this study constructed a food fraud vulnerability assessment system for the Chinese baijiu supply chain based on routine activities theory. We examined the fraud vulnerability in the baijiu supply chain with data from 243 producers and 45 retailers by using the safe supply of affordable food everywhere (SSAFE) food fraud vulnerability assessment (FFVA) tool. The results indicate that fraud factors related to opportunities have an overall medium vulnerability, while those related to motivations and control measures have an overall medium-low vulnerability. In addition, there are significant differences in the perceived vulnerability of fraud factors across the supply chain. Moreover, retailers have overall higher fraud vulnerability in terms of opportunities and control measures than producers. The main reasons for the frequent occurrence of fraud in the baijiu industry are numerous technical opportunities, strong economic drivers, and insufficient control measures.

Electric power cyber-physical systems vulnerability assessment under cyber attack

Improving the accuracy of the vulnerability assessment of the power cyber-physical system has important practical value for protecting the vulnerable links of the system and preventing large power outages. This article studies the vulnerability assessment of power cyber-physical systems under cyber-attacks. First, from the perspective of topology, the electrical betweenness is used as the structural vulnerability index of the power system. Based on the power flow characteristics of the power network, the voltage is used as the state vulnerability index. Then, starting from the structure, the node degree and clustering coefficient are selected to analyze the structural vulnerability. Considering the service transmission characteristics of the information system, the power service importance is selected as the vulnerability assessment index of the information system. The two selected indexes are used to construct a quantitative formula, and a comprehensive index is obtained to complete the node vulnerability assessment of the power information system. Then, on the basis of the system vulnerability assessment, we screen to determine the entry and target nodes of network attacks and predict the network attack path. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method for vulnerability assessment and feasibility is verified by MATLAB programming simulation.

Penetration Testing on the SISAKTI Application at Udayana University Using the OWASP Testing Guide Version 4

SISAKTI application is an information system to facilitate online administration of Udayana University student participation credit units. Until now, there has been no security testing carried out on the SISAKTI application, therefore this study aimed to test the security of SISAKTI application using Black Box penetration testing technique, conduct an assessment of system vulnerabilities and provide recommendations for improvements. The method used is by following the guidelines from OWASP Testing Guide version 4 using Information Gathering, Input Validation Testing, and Authorization Testing modules. From these three modules, there were 28 sub-tests that were successfully carried out, the results were 15 positive tests, 6 negative tests, and 7 tests which cannot be done, from the 28 sub-tests there are 8 vulnerabilities that have a direct effect on the system and are assessed using CVSS calculator, the results are 6 vulnerabilities have a vulnerable value from 6.4 (Medium) to 9.9 (Critical).