Synoptic Weather Patterns Research Articles

Climate change is intensifying rainfall erosivity and soil erosion in West Africa

Soil erosion is a critical environmental challenge with significant implications for agriculture, water quality, and ecosystem stability. Understanding its dynamics is essential for sustainable environmental management and societal welfare. Here, we analyze rainfall erosivity and erosion patterns across West Africa (WAF) during the historical (1982–2014), near future (2028–2060), and far future (2068–2100) periods under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 370 and 585). Using bias-corrected-downscaled (BCD) climate models validated against reference data, we ensure an accurate representation of rainfall—a key driver of erosivity (R-factor) and soil erosion. We compare Renard's approach and the Modified Fournier Index (MFI) to calculate the R-factor and note a strong correlation. However, Renard's method shows slightly lower accuracy in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and The Gambia, likely due to its inability to capture high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events. In contrast, the MFI, utilizing continuous rain gauge data, proves more reliable for these regions. We also attribute fluctuations in erosivity, such as those seen during the 2003 West Africa floods, to synoptic weather patterns influenced by multiple climate processes.Furthermore, our analysis reveals regions where future soil erosion could exceed 20 t/ha/yr due to climate change. Under the SSP 370 scenario, soil erosion in WAF is projected to rise by 14.84 % in the near future and 18.65 % in the far future, increasing further under SSP 585 to 19.86 % and 23.49 %, respectively. The most severe increases are expected in Benin and Nigeria, with Nigeria potentially facing a 66.41 % rise in erosion by the far future under SSP 585. These findings highlight the region's exposure to intensified climatic conditions and underscore the urgent need for targeted soil management and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate erosion's ecological and socioeconomic impacts.

Enhancing real-time PM2.5 forecasts: A hybrid approach of WRF-CMAQ model and CNN algorithm

As fine particulate matter (PM2.5) poses significant environmental and human health risks, there is an urgent need for accurate forecasting systems. In Taiwan, the current air quality forecasting (AQF) system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting meteorological model and Community Multiscale Air Quality model provides essential predictions but is limited by biases and computational complexities. This study introduces a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based PM2.5 forecasting model to enhance prediction accuracy. The CNN model incorporates hourly PM2.5 concentrations from surface observations and the AQF system, along with synoptic weather patterns (SWPs), to predict PM2.5 levels up to 72 h in advance. Three CNN models were developed: CNN-BASE (without SWPs), CNN-SWP (with SWPs), and CNN-SWPW (with SWPs and a weighted loss function). Performance assessment reveals a significant reduction in the mean RMSE of 72-h PM2.5 prediction, from 10.48 μg/m3 with the AQF system to 6.88 μg/m3 with the CNN-BASE model. However, CNN-BASE showed the lowest prediction accuracy for high PM2.5 concentrations (only 26.2%) due to a small subset of samples. Including SWPs improves the model's ability to capture meteorological influences, enhancing predictions of high PM2.5 concentrations. Furthermore, CNN-SWPW incorporates a weighted loss function to address imbalanced sample size distributions, further enhancing the accuracy of high PM2.5 predictions. This study demonstrates the potential of CNNs in operational air quality forecasting.

The impact of evolving synoptic weather patterns on multi-scale transport and sources of persistent high-concentration ozone pollution event in the Yangtze River Delta, China

High-concentration ozone pollution pose threats to ecosystems and human health. However, there is limited research on the impact of the alternating evolution of synoptic weather patterns (SWPs) on the multi-scale transport processes and sources of ozone. From June 14 to 18, 2018, a rare consecutive ozone pollution plagued in Hefei and broader Yangtze River Delta region (YRD). This study investigates the meteorological factors and sources using in-situ observational data and WRF-Chem model simulations. Analysis reveals a northeastern low-pressure system moving from north to south generated a cold front. This moving cold front facilitated the vertical transport of warm air masses carrying high-concentration ozone originating from North China. Subsequently, Ozone-rich air masses (ORMs) were transported over the YRD, influenced by the eastward movement of the Mongolian high-pressure system. Based on WRF-Chem model with NOx tagging mechanisms and WRF-FLEXPART backward simulations, it is confirmed that a notable atmospheric transport originated from North China region (NCR) to Hefei, especially on June 15. As the Mongolian high-pressure weakens and shifts east-southward, it carried ORMs generated by NOx emissions from the YRD, accumulating over the sea within the range of 120°E to 126°E and 25°N to 30°N. Both WRF-chem model results and TRopospheric Ozone and Precursors from Earth System Sounding (TROPESS) Chemistry Reanalysis dataset Version 2 (TCR-2) revealed the existence of ORMs in this geographic range. Subsequently, the ORMs carried out to sea by the weakened high-pressure system were reintroduced inland, influenced by southeast winds brought about by the peripheral circulation of typhoon “Gaemi”. In summary, the alternating evolution of SWPs significantly influences multi-scale ozone transport from both the NCR and the YRD regions, making substantial contributions to this prolonged episode. These findings offer valuable insights for improving regional ozone pollution prevention and control mechanisms.

Impacts of synoptic weather patterns on Hefei's ozone in warm season and analysis of transport pathways during extreme pollution events

Extreme ozone pollution events (EOPEs) are associated with synoptic weather patterns (SWPs) and pose severe health and ecological risks. However, a systematic investigation of the meteorological causes, transport pathways, and source contributions to historical EOPEs is still lacking. In this paper, the K-means clustering method is applied to identify six dominant SWPs during the warm season in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region from 2016 to 2022. It provides an integrated analysis of the meteorological factors affecting ozone pollution in Hefei under different SWPs. Using the WRF-FLEXPART model, the transport pathways (TPPs) and geographical sources of the near-surface air masses in Hefei during EOPEs are investigated. The results reveal that Hefei experienced the highest ozone concentration (134.77 ± 42.82 µg/m³), exceedance frequency (46 days (23.23 %)), and proportion of EOPEs (21 instances, 47.7 %) under the control of peripheral subsidence of typhoon (Type 5). Regional southeast winds correlated with the ozone pollution in Hefei. During EOPEs, a high boundary layer height, solar radiation, and temperature; low humidity and cloud cover; and pronounced subsidence airflow occurred over Hefei and the broader YRD region. The East-South (E_S) patterns exhibited the highest frequency (28 instances, 65.11 %). Regarding the TPPs and geographical sources of the near-surface air masses during historical EOPEs. The YRD was the main source for land-originating air masses under E_S patterns (50.28 %), with Hefei, southern Anhui, southern Jiangsu, and northern Zhejiang being key contributors. These findings can help improve ozone pollution early warning and control mechanisms at urban and regional scales.

Particle-ozone complex pollution under diverse synoptic weather patterns in the Yangtze River Delta region: Synergistic relationships and the effects of meteorology and chemical compositions

There is considerable academic interest in the particle-ozone synergistic relationship (PO) between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Using various synoptic weather patterns (SWPs), we quantitatively assessed the variations in the PO, which is relevant to formulating policies aimed at controlling complex pollution in the air. First, based on one-year sampling data from March 2018 to February 2019, the SWPs classification of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was conducted using the sum-of-squares technique (SS). Five dominant SWPs can be found in the YRD region, including the Aleutian low under SWP1 (occurring 45 % of the year), a tropical cyclone under SWP2 (21 %), the tropical cyclone and western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) under SWP3 (15.4 %), the WPSH under SWP4 (6.9 %), and a continental high pressure under SWP5 (3.1 %). The phenomenon of a “seesaw” between PM2.5 and O3 concentrations exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, which was influenced by meteorological mechanisms. Second, the multi-linear regression (MLR) model and the partial correlation (PCOR) analysis were employed to quantify the effects of dominant components and meteorological factors on the PO. Meteorological variables could collectively explain only 33.0 % of the PM2.5 variations, but 58.0 % for O3. O3 promoted each other with low concentrations of PM2.5 but was inhibited by high concentrations of PM2.5. High relative humidity (RH) was conducive to the generation of PM2.5 secondary components and enhanced the radiative effects of aerosols and the negative correlation of PO. In addition, attention should be paid to assessing the combined effects of precursor levels, weather, and chemical reactions on the particle-ozone complex pollution. The control of O3 pollutants should be intensified in summer, while the focus should be on reducing PM2.5 pollutants in winter. Prevention and control measures need to reflect the differences in weather conditions and pollution characteristics, with a focus on RH and secondary components of PM2.5.

Relationship between Synoptic Weather Patterns and Topography on Snowfall in the Idaho Mountainous Regions during the SNOWIE Project

Abstract Snowpack melting is a crucial water resource for local ecosystems, agriculture, and hydropower in the Intermountain West of the United States. Glaciogenic seeding, a method widely used in mountain regions to enhance precipitation, has been subject to numerous field studies aiming to understand and validate this mechanism. However, investigating precipitation distribution and amounts in mountainous areas is complicated due to the intricate interplay of synoptic circulation patterns and local complex topography. These interactions significantly influence microphysical processes, ultimately affecting the amount and distribution of surface precipitation. To address these challenges, this study leverages Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations, providing high-resolution (900 m), hourly data, spanning the Payette region of Idaho from January to March 2017. We applied the self-organizing map approach to categorize the most representative synoptic circulation patterns and conducted a multiscale analysis to explore their associated environmental conditions and microphysical processes, aiming to assess the cloud seeding potential. The analysis identified four primary synoptic patterns: cold zonal flow (CZF), cold southwesterly flow (CSWF), warm zonal flow (WZF), and warm southwesterly flow (WSWF), constituting 21.3%, 23.1%, 30.0%, and 25.5%, respectively. CSWF and WSWF demonstrated efficiency in generating natural precipitation. These patterns were characterized by abundant supercooled liquid water (SLW) and ice particles, facilitating cloud droplet growth through seeder–feeder processes. On the other hand, CZF exhibited the least SLW and limited potential for cloud seeding, while WZF displayed a lower ice water content but substantial SLW in the diffusion/dendritic growth layer, suggesting a favorable scenario for cloud seeding. Significance Statement Understanding snowfall amounts and distribution in the mountains and how it is linked to topography, synoptic flow, and microphysical processes will help in the development of effective strategies for cloud seeding operations, managing runoff, reservoir, and mitigating flood risks, garnering substantial interest from stakeholders and the government agencies.

Climatology of sea breeze over Jiangsu coast: An overview from the ERA5 reanalysis

AbstractThe sea breeze characteristics for 30 years of summer (1981–2010) in the coastal region of Jiangsu Province were analysed in this study, using the four‐step filter method based on ECMWF Fifth‐Generation Reanalysis (ERA5) data. The results showed that the filtering method reasonably identified three types of sea breeze. Additionally, approximately 23% of the total summer days remained; the corkscrew type dominates the three types of sea breeze; and the backdoor sea breeze was the least common. Except for the type of backdoor sea breeze, the other two types had relatively fixed dominant weather types on three coastlines. The synoptic weather patterns in the 500‐hPa level corresponding to each sea breeze type were different. Further, the details of the diurnal cycle of lower tropospheric circulation indicated the strength of the onshore wind and the location of the large potential temperature gradient at noon being influenced by sea breeze type and coastal location. The wind strength for the three types of sea breeze on the middle coastline was stronger than that on the other two coastlines. On the three coastlines, strong onshore winds were concentrated in areas near the coastline, where they reached their maximum strengths around noon. On the southern coastline, strong onshore winds moved further inland.

Extratropical storms induce carbon outgassing over the Southern Ocean

The strength and variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink is a significant source of uncertainty in the global carbon budget. One barrier to reconciling observations and models is understanding how synoptic weather patterns modulate air-sea carbon exchange. Here, we identify and track storms using atmospheric sea level pressure fields from reanalysis data to assess the role that storms play in driving air-sea CO2 exchange. We examine the main drivers of CO2 fluxes under storm forcing and quantify their contribution to Southern Ocean annual air-sea CO2 fluxes. Our analysis relies on a forced ocean-ice simulation from the Community Earth System Model, as well as CO2 fluxes estimated from Biogeochemical Argo floats. We find that extratropical storms in the Southern Hemisphere induce CO2 outgassing, driven by CO2 disequilibrium. However, this effect is an order of magnitude larger in observations compared to the model and caused by different reasons. Despite large uncertainties in CO2 fluxes and storm statistics, observations suggest a pivotal role of storms in driving Southern Ocean air-sea CO2 outgassing that remains to be well represented in climate models, and needs to be further investigated in observations.

Influence of topography and synoptic weather patterns on air quality in a valley basin city of Northwest China

To clarify the mechanism underlying the effects of weather patterns and topography on air pollution, this study conducted the obliquely rotated principal component analysis in the T-mode to analyze ERA5 reanalysis data and categorize typical weather patterns at a 700-hPa geopotential height from 2015 to 2022. The probability of worsened air pollution attributable to weather patterns was quantitatively assessed using a generalized additive model. The results indicated that due to the influence of topography, Lanzhou was affected by an extended period of downdraft (with weak convective intensity) and the delayed formation of a convective boundary layer during the daytime by 1–2 h relative to other areas. Under the combined effect of low trough patterns (south low pressure type [SL] and south low weak pressure type [SL−]) and topography, the formation of a stable layer above the planetary boundary layer (PBL) would weaken the vertical exchange of the local airflow and inhibit the development of the PBL. The type of SL led to the most severe pollution, causing a 61.9 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 46.3 %–79.3 %) increase in PM2.5 concentration. For southwest high pressure patterns (south high [SH], southwest weak high [SWH−], southwest high [SWH], and southwest strong high [SWH+] pressure types), the prevailing northwest wind was the main transport path for pollutants. For the high pressure patterns (north high [NH] and northwest high [NWH] pressure types) and south wind patterns (southeast weak high [SEH−], southeast high [SEH], and northeast high [NEH] pressure types), the enhancement of vertical convection, deepening of the PBL, and reduction of pollution transport led to improved air quality. The NH, NWH, and NEH pressure types caused PM2.5 concentration to decrease by 18.4 % (95 % CI: 8.8 %–27.1 %), 14.9 % (95 % CI: 4.7 %–24.0 %), and 35.9 % (95 % CI: 9.7 %–54.6 %), respectively.

Improved Diagnosis of Precipitation Type with LightGBM Machine Learning

Abstract Existing precipitation-type algorithms have difficulty discerning the occurrence of freezing rain and ice pellets. These inherent biases are not only problematic in operational forecasting but also complicate the development of model-based precipitation-type climatologies. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM)-based machine learning precipitation-type algorithm that utilizes reanalysis and surface observations. By comparing it with the Bourgouin precipitation-type algorithm as a baseline, we demonstrate that our algorithm improves the critical success index (CSI) for all examined precipitation types. Moreover, when compared with the precipitation-type diagnosis in reanalysis, our algorithm exhibits increased F1 scores for snow, freezing rain, and ice pellets. Subsequently, we utilize the algorithm to compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. The resulting climatology pattern aligns well with observations; however, a significant mean bias is observed. We interpret this bias to be influenced by both the algorithm itself and assumptions regarding precipitation processes, which include biases associated with freezing drizzle, precipitation occurrence, and regional synoptic weather patterns. To mitigate the overall bias, we propose increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h−1, as it better reflects the precision of precipitation observations. This adjustment yields a substantial reduction in the overall bias. Finally, given the strong performance of LightGBM in predicting mixed precipitation episodes, we anticipate that the algorithm can be effectively utilized in operational settings and for diagnosing precipitation types in climate model outputs. Significance Statement Freezing rain can have significant impacts on transportation and infrastructure, making accurate prediction of precipitation types crucial. In this study, we use a machine learning method known as LightGBM to predict precipitation types. We show that the new algorithm performs better than the existing methods for all precipitation types examined. Additionally, we compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. Although the resulting climatology pattern corresponds well to observations, the algorithm overpredicts freezing-rain occurrence. We argue that this bias can be substantially reduced by increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h−1. Overall, this work highlights the potential of the LightGBM algorithm for both weather forecasting and diagnosing precipitation types in climate models.

Synoptic weather patterns during fire spread events in Siberia

Several recent studies have indicated a strong relationship between extensive wildfires in Siberia and synoptic-scale weather processes. In this study, we used the concept of fire spread events to investigate the relationships between synoptic and surface-level weather conditions and extensive wildfires in Siberia during 2001–2022 using the MODIS and ERA5 reanalysis products. We analyzed the spatio-temporal features and seasonality of fire spread events in the region and found that most of them occurred in the central part of Eastern Siberia (ES) during the summer months, following the wildfire season in the region. A significant positive trend in the annual count of fire spread events was found in ES, coinciding with non-significant negative trends in cloud cover and precipitation and non-significant positive trends in air temperature and the fire weather index. Results show that in the ES region, which accounts for 46 % of the total number of considered events, the main driver of fire spread events is the formation of a positive geopotential height anomaly, which, based on the pattern of the meridional wind component, indicates the presence of an anticyclone above the area of fire spread events. The presence of a high-pressure zone causes a decrease in cloud cover over regions with fires, leading to increases in the amount of incoming solar radiation and surface air temperature and a decrease in precipitation. These conditions contribute to the drying of fuel and an increase in the overall fire hazard level, which in turn leads to an intensification of the combustion process, as evidenced by an increase in the radiative power of fires.

Explaining heatwaves with machine learning

AbstractHeatwaves are known to arise from the interplay between large‐scale climate variability, synoptic weather patterns, and regional to local‐scale surface processes. Though recent research has made important progress for each individual contributing factor, ways to properly incorporate multiple or all of them in a unified analysis are still lacking. In this study, we consider a wide range of possible predictor variables from the ERA5 Reanalysis version 5 and ask how much information on heatwave occurrence in Europe can be learned from each of them. To simplify the problem, we first adapt the recently developed logistic principal component analysis to the task of compressing large binary heatwave fields to a small number of interpretable principal components. The relationships between heatwaves and various climate variables can then be learned by a neural network. Starting from the simple notion that the importance of a variable is given by its impact on the performance of our statistical model, we arrive naturally at the definition of Shapley values. Classic results of game theory show that this is the only fair way of distributing the overall success of a model among its inputs. We find a nonlinear model that explains 70% of reduced heatwave variability. The biggest individual contribution (27% of the 70%) comes from upper level geopotential; top‐level soil moisture is in second place (15%). Beyond this decomposition, Shapley interaction values enable us to quantify overlapping information and positive synergies between all pairs of predictors.

Synoptic weather patterns conducive to compound extreme rainfall–wave events in the NW Mediterranean

Abstract. The NW Mediterranean coast is highly susceptible to the impacts of extreme rainstorms and coastal storms, which often lead to flash floods, coastal erosion, and flooding across a highly urbanised territory. Often, these storms occur simultaneously, resulting in compound events that intensify local impacts when they happen in the same location or spread impacts across the territory when they occur in different areas. These multivariate and spatially compound events present significant challenges for risk management, potentially overwhelming emergency services. In this study, we analysed the prevailing atmospheric conditions during various types of extreme episodes, aiming to create the first classification of synoptic weather patterns (SWPs) conducive to compound events involving heavy rainfall and storm waves in the Spanish NW Mediterranean. To achieve this, we developed a methodological framework that combines an objective synoptic classification method based on principal component analysis and k-means clustering with a Bayesian network. This methodology was applied to a dataset comprising 562 storm events recorded over 30 years, including 112 compound events. First, we used the framework to determine the optimal combination of domain size, classification variables, and number of clusters based on the synoptic skill to replicate local-scale values of daily rainfall and significant wave height. Subsequently, we identified SWPs associated with extreme compound events, which are often characterised by upper-level lows and trough structures in conjunction with Mediterranean cyclones, resulting in severe to extreme coastal storms combined with convective systems. The obtained classification demonstrated strong skill, with scores exceeding 0.4 when considering factors like seasonality or the North Atlantic Oscillation. These findings contribute to a broader understanding of compound terrestrial–maritime extreme events in the study area and have the potential to aid in the development of effective risk management strategies.

Elucidating drivers of severe wintertime fine particulate matter pollution episodes in the Yangtze River Delta region of eastern China

Understanding the causes and sources responsible for severe fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution episodes that occur under conducive synoptic weather patterns (SWPs) is essential for regional air quality management. The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China has experienced recurrent severe PM2.5 episodes during the winters from 2013 to 2017. In this study, we employed an objective classification approach, the self-organizing map, to investigate the underlying impact of predominant SWPs on PM2.5 pollution in the YRD. We further conducted a series of source apportionment simulations using the Particulate Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) tool integrated within the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) to quantify the source contributions to PM2.5 pollution under different SWPs. Here we identified six predominant SWPs over the YRD that are robustly connected to the evolution of the Siberian High. Considering the regional average PM2.5 anomalies, our results show that polluted SWPs favourable for the occurrence of regional PM2.5 pollution account for 61–78 %. The most conducive SWP, associated with the highest regional exceedance (46 %) of PM2.5 levels, is characterized by noticeable cyclonic anomalies at 850 hPa and stagnant surface weather conditions. Our source apportionment analysis emphasizes the pivotal role of local emissions and intra-regional transport within the YRD in shaping PM2.5 pollution in representative cities. Local emissions have the most significant impact on PM2.5 levels in Shanghai (32–48 %), while PM2.5 pollution in Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Hefei is more influenced by intra-regional transport (33–61 %). Industrial and residential emissions are the dominant sources, contributing 32–41 % and 24–38 % to PM2.5, respectively. Under specific SWPs associated with a stronger influence of inter-regional transport from northern China, there is a synchronously remarkable enhancement in the contribution of residential emissions. Our study pinpoints the opportunities for future air quality planning that would benefit from quantitative source attribution linked to prevailing SWPs.

Quantified the influence of different synoptic weather patterns on the transport and local production processes of O3 events in Pearl River Delta, China

Regional ozone (O3) pollution in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region has become a topic of discussion in recent years. The occurrence of regional O3 pollution are influenced by local emissions and cross-regional transportation. In this study, we identified the predominant synoptic patterns that were associated with regional O3 pollution from August to November in 2015–2021 using the Lamb-Jenkinson classification technique. All synoptic types were divided into four major categories of NE-type, C-type, S-type and A-type, which accounted for 42 %, 25 %, 18 % and 15 % of the total number of regional O3 pollution days, respectively. The weather conditions for each synoptic pattern were described by using MERRA-2 datasets. Then a rapidly method was established to quantify the contribution of cross-regional processes to high O3 concentration in different synoptic patterns over the PRD through the WRF-Flexpart model. The NE-type weather condition was characterized by a relatively large wind speed with a significant cross-regional transport contribution of 35.8 %. The A-type weather condition had moderate surface wind speed with the stable weather condition, resulting in a lower cross-region transport contribution of 27.7 %. Under controlled by C-type, the stagnant weather condition caused by low-pressure systems on its periphery, would suppress diffusion of O3. As a result, the regional O3 pollution in the PRD were mostly attributed to locally (87.9 %) with minimal cross-regional transport (12.1 %). The S-type weather condition was mainly associated with the West Pacific Subtropical High and the surface equalization pressure field, accompanied by low wind speed. Therefore, the considerable (minor) contribution of local production (cross-regional transport) of 83.3 % (16.7 %) to O3 pollution in the PRD is a consequence of the stagnation weather condition.

Air quality and characterization of synoptic circulation weather patterns in a South American city from Argentina

The potential cause-effect relationship between synoptic meteorological conditions and levels of criteria air pollutants, including CO, NO2, O3, PM10, PM2.5 and SO2, in Bahia Blanca, Argentina, was assessed for the period of 2018–2019. Daily back-trajectories and global meteorological data fields were employed to characterize the primary transport paths of air masses reaching the study site, and to identify the synoptic meteorological patterns responsible for these atmospheric circulations. Time series of surface-level meteorological parameters and midday mixing layer height were collected to examine the impact of the synoptic meteorological patterns on local meteorology. Furthermore, the NAAPS global aerosol model was utilized to identify days when contributions from long-range transport processes, such as dust and/or biomass burning smoke, impacted air quality. By applying this methodology, it was determined that the air masses coming from the N, NW and W regions significantly contributed to increased mean concentrations of coarse particles in this area through long-range transport events involving dust and smoke. Indeed, the high average levels of PM10 recorded in 2018–2019 (annual mean values of 47 and 52 μg/m3, respectively) represent the main air quality concern in Bahía Blanca. Moreover, PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 emissions should be reduced in order to meet recommended air quality guidelines. On the other hand, the results from this study suggest that the sources and meteorological processes leading to the increase in the concentrations of CO and SO2 have a local-regional origin, although these air pollutants did not reach high values probably as a consequence of the strong wind speed registered in this region during any synoptic meteorological pattern.

Seasonal forecast of tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific Ocean

AbstractPredictions of tropical cyclone (TC) activity have been a topic of recurrent interest and research in the past. Here we utilize reanalysis datasets of sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth (MLD) to build a statistical seasonal forecasting model that produces outlooks of expected TC counts in the region of the Southwest Pacific (SWP). Nevertheless, the model applicability can be extended to other regions and basins. A novel TC predictor index is developed at the daily scale and used to obtain an objective classification of synoptic weather patterns. This classification has been performed by clustering the daily index predictor fields, previously transformed into principal components, using a K‐mean algorithm. As a result, 49 daily weather types (DWTs) are presented which inform about the mean representative features and spatial patterns of both predictor and predictand variables. Thus, statistical relationships between TC activity and nonlinear combinations of predictor variables are found to assign daily rates of expected TCs. The cluster‐based model is calibrated from 1982 to 2019 and validated by recent TC season observations, demonstrating the operational application using ensembles of long‐term predictions in the Southwest Pacific. Results have shown which synoptic types of SST and MLD are favourable to cyclogenesis and activity, with additional information related to concurrent sea level pressure and precipitation synoptic patterns, as well as seasonal and interannual climate variability.

Fast nitrate formation aloft supported by typical synoptic weather patterns and complex terrain in the North China Plain

North China Plain has been suffering from the increasing prominent nitrate pollution. In addition to intensive anthropogenic emissions, typical synoptic weather patterns and complex terrain in this region potentially contribute to fast nitrate formation, which has not been well understood. Focusing on a winter haze episode, we investigate their combined effects on nitrate formation by combining regional observations, weather situation analysis, and model simulations. In addition to the commonly proposed accumulating pollutants, our results indicate that synoptic weather patterns and complex terrain can uplift the precursors from the ground level and transport O3 from the free troposphere, enhancing the nitrate formation in the residual layer, with a faster formation than near the surface. The downward transport of nitrate aloft aggravates the nitrate pollution at the ground level. Our study demonstrates the notable effects of synoptic weather patterns and complex terrain on shaping nitrate production vertically, and highlights the importance of nitrate formation aloft to nitrate pollution at the ground level.

Rising frequency of ozone-favorable synoptic weather patterns contributes to 2015–2022 ozone increase in Guangzhou

Objective weather classification methods have been extensively applied to identify dominant ozone-favorable synoptic weather patterns (SWPs), however, the consistency of different classification methods is rarely examined. In this study, we apply two widely-used objective methods, the self-organizing map (SOM) and K-means clustering analysis, to derive ozone-favorable SWPs at four Chinese megacities in 2015–2022. We find that the two algorithms are largely consistent in recognizing dominant ozone-favorable SWPs for four Chinese megacities. In the case of classifying six SWPs, the derived circulation fields are highly similar with a spatial correlation of 0.99 between the two methods, and the difference in the mean frequency of each SWP is less than 7%. The six dominant ozone-favorable SWPs in Guangzhou are all characterized by anomaly higher radiation and temperature, lower cloud cover, relative humidity, and wind speed, and stronger subsidence compared to climatology mean. We find that during 2015–2022, the occurrence of ozone-favorable SWPs days increases significantly at a rate of 3.2 day/year, faster than the increases in the ozone exceedance days (3.0 day/year). The interannual variability between the occurrence of ozone-favorable SWPs and ozone exceedance days are generally consistent with a temporal correlation coefficient of 0.6. In particular, the significant increase in ozone-favorable SWPs in 2022, especially the Subtropical High type which typically occurs in September, is consistent with a long-lasting ozone pollution episode in Guangzhou during September 2022. Our results thus reveal that enhanced frequency of ozone-favorable SWPs plays an important role in the observed 2015–2022 ozone increase in Guangzhou.

Integrated analysis of the transport process and source attribution of an extreme ozone pollution event in Hefei at different vertical heights: A case of study

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region frequently experiences ozone pollution events during the summer and autumn seasons. High-concentration events are typically related to synoptic weather patterns, which impact the transport and photochemical production of ozone at multiple scales, ranging from the local to regional scale. To better understand the regional ozone pollution problem, studies on ozone source attribution are needed, especially regarding the contributions of sources at different vertical heights based on tagging the region or time periods. Between September 3 and 8, 2020, an episode of ozone concentration anomaly high was observed in Hefei through ground-based stations and ozone Lidar. The mechanism behind this event was uncovered through synoptic weather pattern analysis and using the Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry model (WRF-Chem). Because an approaching typhoon caused variable wind direction, the O3-rich air masses (ORMs) arising from the YRD region were transported to Hefei via the nocturnal residual layer and descended to the ground through horizontal advection and vertical mixing processes the next day. Based on geographic source tagging, the anthropogenic NOx emissions (ANEs) from local and regional sources were the main contributors to the heavy ozone pollution over Hefei on September 6. Furthermore, the intra-regional transported ozone from southern Jiangsu (SJS), southern Anhui (SAH), and Zhejiang (ZJ) in the YRD was the main driving factor of the surface and upper atmosphere ozone pollution. Based on time period tagging, The ozone generated due to ANEs from September 3 to 5 significantly contributed to this episode. It is important to pay attention to the impact of ANEs on September 5 on the surface peak ozone concentration the following day (i.e., September 6). Our findings provide significant insights into the regional ozone transport mechanism in the YRD and optimization of measures to prevent and control heavy ozone pollution on spatiotemporal scales.