Synoptic-scale Transient Eddy Research Articles

Origin of the Warm Arctic–Cold North American Pattern on the Intraseasonal Time Scale

Abstract The warm Arctic–cold continent pattern (WACC) of near-surface air temperature variability has often been associated with the connection between Arctic sea ice reduction and cold weather over the midlatitude continents. Whether the existence of this pattern is due to variability of sea ice or is caused by atmospheric internal dynamics is subject to debate. Based on a long integration of a primitive equation atmospheric model (SGCM), this study examines the origin of the warm Arctic–cold North American pattern (WACNA), which is characterized by a pair of opposite surface air temperature anomalies over the high-latitude Chukchi–Bering Sea region and the North American continent, in boreal winter on the intraseasonal time scale. The model atmosphere is maintained by a time-independent forcing, so that atmospheric internal dynamics is the only source of variability. It is found that the SGCM model simulates well the behavior of the observed WACNA pattern. The WACNA pattern develops by interacting with the time-mean flow and synoptic-scale transient eddies. Two pathways of Rossby wave propagation are associated with WACNA. The northern pathway originates from eastern Siberia moving eastward across the Bering Strait to Canada, and the southern pathway is rooted in the subtropical waveguide propagating across the eastern North Pacific. Our simulation of this pattern implies that tropospheric dynamics alone can generate the WACNA, and the predictability associated with this pattern is likely limited by its internal dynamics nature. Significance Statement The warm Arctic–cold continent pattern of temperature variability has often been associated with the connection between Arctic sea ice reduction and cold weather over the midlatitude continents, which implies possible impacts of polar warming on midlatitude climate. There has been debate on whether the existence of this pattern depends on variability of sea ice or can be caused by processes within the atmosphere. In this study, we use a simple atmospheric model, which has a constant forcing; thus, atmospheric internal dynamics is the only source of variability. We show that atmospheric internal dynamics alone can generate the warm Arctic–cold North American pattern. The result has implications for our understanding of the impact of global warming.

Response of extreme precipitation to increasing extratropical cyclonic vortex frequency

Since the 2000s, extratropical extremes have been more frequent, which are closely related to anomalies of planetary-scale and synoptic-scale systems. This study focuses on a key synoptic system, the extratropical cyclonic vortex (ECV) over land, to investigate its relations with extreme precipitation. It was found that ECVs have been more active post-2000, which has induced more extreme precipitation, and such variation is projected to persist along with increasing temperature within 1.5°C of global warming. An enhanced quasi-stationary vortex (QSV) primarily contributes to the ECV, rather than inactive synoptic-scale transient eddies (STEs). Inactive STEs respond to a decline in baroclinicity due to the tendency of the homogeneous temperature gradient. However, such conditions are helpful to widening the westerly jet belt, favoring strong dynamic processes of quasi-resonant amplification and interaction of STEs with the quasi-stationary wave, and the result favors an increasing frequency and persistence of QSVs, contributing to extreme precipitation.摘要自21世纪以来, 热带外极端降水频次增加. 随着中高纬度的显著增温, 经向温度梯度减弱导致低层大气斜压性减小, 由此产生的气旋型瞬变涡天气系统等活动减弱. 然而, 热力分布导致西风急流带变宽, 经向环流加大, 有助于行星尺度波动相关的涡旋异常增加, 如东北冷涡, 中亚涡, 东欧-地中海涡, 北美涡等, 进而增加了气旋涡影响范围的极端降水频次. 在未来变暖背景和1.5°C增温的目标内, 热带外气旋涡增强会进一步促进极端降水发生.

Impacts of Central Tropical Pacific SST on the Reversal of December and January Surface Air Temperature Anomalies Over Central Asia

The reversal of winter surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs) over Central Asia (CA) between December and January is investigated in this study and found to be closely related to the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the central tropical Pacific (CTP). The cold CTP SSTAs can lead to positive (negative) SATAs over CA in December (January). The different responses of SATAs over CA to the SSTAs are attributed to different Rossby wave propagations. In December, a wave train from the North Pacific directly reaches CA, while in January it mainly propagates in the meridional direction and cannot reach CA. The January SATAs of CA are influenced by a wave train from the North Atlantic, which is induced by CTP SSTAs indirectly. The wave trains from the North Pacific are mainly driven by the Gill-type response to the cold CTP SSTA in both December and January. In January, since the climatological subtropical jet stream over the North Pacific is stronger and situated more towards the equator, a stronger Gill-type response is excited and causes the meridional propagation of the Rossby waves. Then, this stronger Gill-type response can cause strong zonal wind anomalies over the East Pacific. Local anomalies of the synoptic-scale transient eddy can be further caused by the zonal wind anomalies and travel eastward to the North Atlantic. The eddy-induced geopotential anomalies over the North Atlantic can further trigger Rossby waves and cause the negative SATAs over CA. Numerical simulations reproduce these mechanisms.

Interannual relationship between displacement and intensity of East Asian jet stream and haze over eastern China in winter

A recent case study indicated that the weakening of the East Asian subtropical jet was an important cause of the severe haze in North China in the winter of 2015. However, the interannual relationship between two key features, the displacement and the intensity of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and the haze days over eastern China (HDEC), remains unclear. Observed data, ERA-Interim reanalysis, and Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Numerical Simulation(CESM-LENS) were used to investigate the interannual relationship between the EAJS and HDEC during the winter season from 1980 to 2017 and its possible associated atmospheric mechanisms. The results show that the northward movement of the EAJS is conducive to more HDEC by weakening synoptic-scale transient eddy activities (STEA) and baroclinicity, forming an upper-level anticyclonic anomaly over eastern China (EC). The local meteorological conditions (e.g., stronger temperature inversion potential, higher relative humidity, descending motion) are favorable for the accumulation of HDEC, showing consistent variations in more haze in the entire region of EC. The southward movement of the EAJS has the opposite effect. The strong East Asian subtropical jet (weak polar-front jet) could result in the distribution of the meridional dipole with less haze in north EC and more haze in south EC. The mean flow loses energy to the STEA over north EC and increases the baroclinicity, which is favorable for dispersing HDEC. However, the configuration of upper-level cyclonic and low-level southwest wind anomalies that appeared in south EC weakened the STEA, which favored the accumulation of HDEC. The observed results were further verified by CESM-LENS.

Meridional Tripole Mode of Winter Precipitation over the Arctic and Continental North Africa–Eurasia

AbstractWintertime precipitation is vital to the growth of glaciers in the northern hemisphere. We find a tripole mode of precipitation (PTM), with each pole of the mode extending zonally over the eastern hemisphere roughly between 30°W and 120°E, and the positive/negative/positive structure for its positive phase extending meridionally from the Arctic to the continental North Africa–Eurasia. The large-scale dynamics associated with the PTM is explored. The positive phase of the PTM is associated with the negative while eastward-shifted phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a zonal band of positive SST anomaly in the tropics, together with a narrowed Hadley cell and weakened Ferrel cell. While being north-eastward tilted and separated from their North Africa-Eurasia counterpart in the climatological mean, the upper-tropospheric westerly jets over the east Pacific and north Atlantic become extending zonally and shifting southward and hence form a circumpolar subtropical jet as a whole by connecting with the westerly jets over the North Africa-Eurasia. The enhanced zonal winds over the north Atlantic promote more synoptic-scale transient eddies which are waveguided by the jet streams. The polar vortex weakens and cold air dips southward from the North Pole. Further diagnosis of the E-vectors suggests that transient eddies have a positive feedback on the weakening of Ferrel cell. Opposite features are associated with the negative phase of the PTM. The reconstructed time series using multiple linear regression on the NAO index and the tropical SST averaged over 20°S– 20°N, can explain 62.4% of the variance of the original the original precipitation time series.

Decadal changes of East Asian jet streams and their relationship with the Mid-high Latitude Circulations

This study investigates the concurrent location and intensity changes of the East Asian polar front jet (EAPJ) and subtropical jet (EASJ) on decadal time scale using NCEP/NCAR, ERA5 and JRA-55 reanalysis data, along with the relationship with the mid-high latitude circulation changes. Results show that EAPJ was intensified accompanied by the weakening of EASJ after 1985, and shifted equatorward in conjunction with the poleward migration of EASJ after 1999. The three-dimensional structures of the atmospheric circulation over East Asia exhibited distinct changes corresponding to the two regime shifts. Dipole anomalous sea level pressure (SLP) between the Arctic and the North Pacific, a NAM-like geopotential height anomalous pattern, and a deepened polar vortex occurred after 1985, accompanied with the out-of-phase intensity changes of the two jets. In comparison, dipole SLP anomalies between the mid-high latitudes and Tibetan Plateau, a zonal wave train over Eurasia accompanied with a meridional wave train over East Asia, and a polar vortex shifting toward the Siberia were observed after 1999, when the two jets approached each other. These circulation changes exerted pronounced effects on the East Asian climate anomalies. After the mid-1980s, the positive SLP anomaly over the northern North Pacific led to decreased land-sea SLP contrast, and the positive mid-tropospheric geopotential height center near Lake Baikal implied weakened East Asian trough (EAT). Such changes favored the warming of southern East Asia and the weakening of the southern mode of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). In contrast, the high latitude positive SLP anomalies denoted enhanced Siberian high (SH) and the East Asian meridional wave train resulted in tilted EAT after the late 1990s, benefitting the cold anomalies over northern Eurasia with the northern mode of EAWM intensified. Possible mechanisms for the decadal changes of the jets are discussed from the perspective of the dynamic forcing of the synoptic-scale transient eddy activities (STEA), and the thermal forcings from the East Asian landmass, the North Pacific sea surface and the Arctic sea ice cover.

The Winter Concurrent Meridional Shift of the East Asian Jet Streams and the Associated Thermal Conditions

Abstract In this study, the concurrent meridional shift of the East Asian polar-front jet (EAPJ) and the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) and the associated thermal conditions have been investigated. The concurrent meridional shift is dominantly characterized by an out-of-phase shift of the two jets, as an equatorward shift of the EAPJ and a poleward shift of the EASJ, and vice versa. This shift is linked with the dipole surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly over the Eurasian continent and a La Niña–like sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly. Associated with the dipole SAT anomaly, the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) anomaly exhibits a tripole pattern from low to high latitudes over the Eurasian continent, as well as an enhanced maximum eddy growth rate and an anomalous divergence of Eliassen–Palm flux (E-P flux) over the regions between the EAPJ and EASJ. Additionally, the synoptic-scale transient eddy activities (STEA) significantly decrease over the high latitudes and enhance between the EAPJ and EASJ. All the anomalies would benefit the equatorward and poleward shift of the EAPJ and EASJ, respectively. The MTG, E-P flux and STEA anomalies are also indicated in that associated with the Niña-like SST anomaly. Particularly, the variations are evident in low latitudes. The pathway of the stationary Rossby wave activity flux anomalies shows an eastward Rossby wave packet propagation along the southern portion of the EAPJ is associated with the SAT anomaly and that along the northern portion of the EASJ is associated with the SST anomaly. The relative contributions of the two thermal conditions have emphasized the role of the dipole SAT anomaly, based on multilinear regression.

The British–Baikal Corridor: A Teleconnection Pattern along the Summertime Polar Front Jet over Eurasia

The British–Baikal Corridor (BBC) pattern, a new teleconnection along the summertime upper-tropospheric polar front jet (PFJ), is investigated based on observational and reanalysis datasets. The BBC pattern consists of four geographically fixed centers over the west of the British Isles, the Baltic Sea, western Siberia, and Lake Baikal, respectively. It features a zonally oriented and meridionally confined wavelike structure with a zonal wavenumber 5, and it influences the climate along its route significantly. The BBC pattern forms from the trapped effect of the PFJ waveguide that is characterized by a strong meridional gradient of stratification. As a preferred dynamical mode inherent in the PFJ, it is maintained through the baroclinic energy conversion from the basic flow and the feedback forcing of high-frequency transient eddies. Meanwhile, its geographical location is determined by the barotropic energy conversion, which is sensitive to the configuration of the basic flow. The interannual variability of the BBC pattern is dominated by atmospheric internal dynamics considering its loose relation with immediate atmospheric external forcing. Further analyses suggest that the BBC pattern is excited by the active multiscale interactions among the climatological mean flow, the low-frequency flow, and the synoptic-scale transient eddies in the exit region of the North Atlantic jet, which may also determine the preferential upstream forcing region and anchor the BBC pattern geographically. Budget analyses on vorticity, temperature, and water vapor are performed to interpret the physical nature of the BBC pattern. The possible linkage to the North Atlantic Oscillation is also discussed.

Characterizing the winter concurrent variation patterns of the subtropical and polar-front jets over East Asia

In this study, the concurrent variation relationships between the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) and polar-front jet (PFJ) over the East Asian land mass in the winter season on different timescales are identified and the impacts of the jet concurrent variation patterns on the atmospheric circulation in mid–high latitude regions and climate anomalies in China are examined, using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data and observational data. The major variability modes of the winter upper-level wind field on interannual timescales are characterized by the meridional shift of the PFJ and out-of-phase variation in the intensity of the subtropical jet and PFJ. On subseasonal and synoptic timescales, the concurrent variation relationships can be categorized into four configuration patterns: a strong (weak) subtropical jet accompanied by a weak (strong) PFJ, or a strong (weak) subtropical jet with a strong (weak) PFJ. The out-ofphase variation [i.e., a stronger (weaker) EASJ and weaker (stronger) PFJ] is found to be more common than the inphase variation [i.e., a stronger (weaker) EASJ and stronger (weaker) PFJ]. These concurrent variation relationships represent the integral structure and variation features of the atmospheric general circulation over East Asia, and have significant impacts on the weather and climate. The strong subtropical jet/weak PFJ (weak subtropical jet/strong PFJ) pattern leads to anomalous negative (positive) geopotential height in midlatitude regions and favors cold (warm) conditions, and positive (negative) rainfall anomalies in southern China. For both strong jet configurations, the geopotential height anomaly in the mid–high latitudes shows a northwest–southeast tilted dipole pattern, resulting in northern warm–southern cold temperature anomalies, and positive rainfall anomalies in southern China. For both weak jet situations, positive geopotential height anomalies dominate the East Asian area, and warm conditions occur over most areas in China, corresponding to less negative rainfall anomalies in southern China. The complicated rainfall and temperature anomaly patterns in China can be explained by the concurrent variation relationships between the two jets. A close relationship may exist between the synoptic-scale transient eddy activity (STEA) and the intensity of jet streams, especially for the PFJ. Significantly reduced (strengthened) STEA over the polar-front area is intimately associated with a decreased (increased) intensity of the PFJ.

The Linkage between Upper-Level Jet Streams over East Asia and East Asian Winter Monsoon Variability

Abstract This study investigates the linkage between East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) variability and upper-level jets, with particular focus on the East Asian polar front jet (PJ) and its concurrent variation with the subtropical jet located to the south of the Tibetan Plateau (TSJ). The winter upper-level zonal wind variations over the Asian landmass (70°–120°E) are dominated by two principal modes (i.e., meridional displacement of the PJ and out-of-phase variation in the intensity of the TSJ and PJ) and they are closely linked to the EAWM northern mode and southern mode, respectively. Southward shifting of the PJ concurs with northwestward displacement of the Siberian high (SH), an enhanced northern East Asian trough, leading to cold winter in northern East Asia. Meanwhile the simultaneous TSJ intensification and PJ weakening is linked to an amplified SH, a southward shift of the Aleutian low (AL), a strengthened southern East Asian trough, and a wavelike anomaly pattern extending from western Barents Sea downstream to East Asia at the 500-hPa level. Equatorward shift of the PJ is associated with La Niña conditions in the tropics and sea ice anomalies over the Arctic. An intensified TSJ and weakened PJ are preceded by autumn warming over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and are linked to circulation anomalies induced by the extensions of stationary Rossby waves, as well as synoptic-scale transient eddy activity anomalies. Therefore, a combination of external forcing and internal atmospheric dynamics plays a role in driving the variations of two leading EOFs, and there is potential for seasonal forecasting of both modes.

Feedbacks of Sea Surface Temperature to Wintertime Storm Tracks in the North Atlantic

Abstract In this study, the lagged maximum covariance analysis is performed on winter storm-track anomalies, represented by the meridional heat flux by synoptic-scale (2–8 days) transient eddies and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic, which are both derived from reanalysis datasets spanning the twentieth century. The analysis shows significant seasonal and interannual coupling between storm-track and SST variations. On seasonal time scales, it is found that SST anomalies in the preceding early winter (November–December), which are expected to change the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity, can significantly influence storm tracks in early spring (March); that is, an intensification and slight northward shift of storm tracks in response to a midlatitude SST dipole, with a cold pole centered to the southeast of Newfoundland and a warm pole in the western subtropical Atlantic. This storm-track response pattern is similar to the storm-track forcing pattern in early spring, which resembles the dominant mode of storm tracks. At interannual time scales, it is found that the wintertime (January–March) storm-track and SST anomalies are mutually reinforced, manifesting as a zonal-dipole-like pattern in storm-track anomalies (with dominant negative anomalies in the downstream) coupled with a midlatitude SST monopole (with warm anomalies centered to the south and east of Newfoundland).

The Different Configurations of the East Asian Polar Front Jet and Subtropical Jet and the Associated Rainfall Anomalies over Eastern China in Summer

Abstract To investigate the concurrent impacts of the East Asian polar front jet (EAPJ) and subtropical jet (EASJ) on the summer rainfall over eastern China, positive (strengthened EAPJ with weakened EASJ) and negative (weakened EAPJ with strengthened EASJ) configurations are identified. In the positive configuration, rainfall decreases in the northern part of eastern China and increases in the southern part, vice versa in the negative configuration. The possible mechanisms maintaining the two jet configurations are further proposed from the perspectives of sea surface temperature (SST) and synoptic-scale transient eddy activities (STEA). In the positive configuration, meridional distributed cold–warm SST anomalies over the eastern North Pacific may induce regional circulation and meridional temperature gradient anomalies, which can strengthen the EAPJ and weaken the EASJ. The central Pacific La Niña–like SST anomalies are related with the Arctic vortexlike anomalies in the stratosphere, which may strengthen the EAPJ. Furthermore, the divergence of Eliassen–Palm vectors and the conversion from eddy kinetic energy to mean kinetic energy over the active region of the EAPJ may strengthen the EAPJ, vice versa for the weakened EASJ. In the negative configuration, associated with the warm SST anomalies over the western North Pacific, the enhanced convective activities may lead to a strengthened EASJ via meridional teleconnection. The teleconnection may be intensified by the strengthened easterly vertical shear. Additionally, eastern Pacific La Niña–like SST anomalies may intensify the Walker circulation, which may strengthen the EASJ via the Hadley circulation. The STEA-related anomalies are almost opposite those in the positive configuration, especially for the weakened EAPJ.

FGOALS-s2 simulation of upper-level jet streams over East Asia: Mean state bias and synoptic-scale transient eddy activity

Upper-level jet streams over East Asia simulated by the LASG/IAP coupled climate system model FGOALS-s2 were assessed, and the mean state bias explained in terms of synoptic-scale transient eddy activity (STEA). The results showed that the spatial distribution of the seasonal mean jet stream was reproduced well by the model, except that following a weaker meridional temperature gradient (MTG), the intensity of the jet stream was weaker than in National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP)/Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project II reanalysis data (NCEP2). Based on daily mean data, the jet core number was counted to identify the geographical border between the East Asian Subtropical Jet (EASJ) and the East Asian Polar-front Jet (EAPJ). The border is located over the Tibetan Plateau according to NCEP2 data, but was not evident in FGOALS-s2 simulations. The seasonal cycles of the jet streams were found to be reasonably reproduced, except that they shifted northward relative to reanalysis data in boreal summer owing to the northward shift of negative MTGs. To identify the reasons for mean state bias, the dynamical and thermal forcings of STEA on mean flow were examined with a focus on boreal winter. The dynamical and thermal forcings were estimated by extended Eliassen-Palm flux (E) and transient heat flux, respectively. The results showed that the failure to reproduce the tripolar-pattern of the divergence of E over the jet regions led to an unsuccessful separation of the EASJ and EAPJ, while dynamical forcing contributed less to the weaker EASJ. In contrast, the weaker transient heat flux partly explained the weaker EASJ over the ocean.

The East Asian upper-tropospheric jet streams and associated transient eddy activities simulated by a climate system model BCC_CSM1.1

In this paper, major features of the upper-tropospheric jet streams simulated by a coupled Climate System Model BCC_CSM1.1 are evaluated through comparison with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The jet streams consist of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) and the East Asian polar-front jet (EAPJ). Associated stationary wave and synoptic-scale transient eddy activities (STEA) are also examined. The results show that the climatological positions of the westerly jet streams are well captured by BCC_CSM1.1, but with slight intensity biases. Statistics from the 6-h model outputs reveal that the jet core number (JCN) of ESPJ is significantly underestimated. Examination of the simulated seasonal evolution of the westerly jet stream indicates that the model has produced a westward movement of the EASJ core in May, one month earlier than that in the reanalysis. Analysis of stationary wave activities shows that the overestimated meridional wind component may have caused considerable enhancement of meridional momentum and heat transport. The stationary Rossby wave represented by the wave activity flux at the southern flank of the Tibetan Plateau is favorable to the growth of asymmetric zonal wind and the multiple-center pattern of JCN. Unlike the stationary wave heat flux transport, the model tends to systematically generate weaker transient heat flux over East Asia. Further analysis of STEA exhibits a general consistent pattern between the simulation and the reanalysis, while the intensity of the northern STEA branch associated with the EAPJ is greatly reduced. The deficiencies of eddy momentum and heat flux transport and accompanied eddy forcing may contribute to the biases of the simulated upper-tropospheric jet streams, suggesting the potential importance of midlatitude internal atmospheric dynamics in shaping the tropospheric general circulation, which is not yet fully and accurately resolved in the current BCC_CSM1.1.

Diagnostic comparison of wintertime East Asian subtropical jet and polar-front jet: Large-scale characteristics and transient eddy activities

Diagnostic comparison of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) and polar-front jet (EAPJ) in winter season is carried out by using the ERA-40 dataset. The large-scale circulation characteristics and synopticscale transient eddy activities (STEAs) associated with the EASJ and EAPJ are examined. The results show that the EASJ and EAPJ in the upper-level monthly mean data have no clear geographical border, while the distribution of the numbers of jet cores from the daily data exhibits a distinct boundary at the latitudes of the northern Tibetan Plateau. The two areas with large numbers of jet cores correspond to the EASJ and EAPJ regions. The analysis of STEAs over the East Asian region shows a spatial match of STEAs with the EASJ and EAPJ in winter: the strong EASJ is located within the weak southern branch of the STEA while the relatively weak EAPJ appears within the active northern branch of the STEA, indicating that the EAPJ is the jet coexisting with the STEA. Further analysis shows two anomalous modes of the winter EAPJ: the anomalous anticyclonic/cyclonic circulation and the weakened/strengthened local westerly wind. The large-scale circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere related to the first mode are concentrated in the Eurasian mid to high latitudes, and are also influenced by the anomalous circulation in the upstream area. When the local westerly wind over the EAPJ region is weakened/strengthened, the westerly jet in the eastern part of the EASJ and that in the western Pacific region show opposite variations. The corresponding anomalous atmospheric circulation demonstrates the Eurasian (EU) pattern. The EAPJ anomalies are also closely linked with the STEA anomalies over East Asia. The anomalies in the northern branch of the STEA propagate as a wave train along its axis into the East Asian coastal waters, and then migrate eastward to the oceanic region. However, the ones near the southern branch are trapped over the eastern part of East Asia and its coastal waters at 200 hPa.

Seasonal Variations of the Synoptic-Scale Transient Eddy Activity and Polar Front Jet over East Asia

Abstract Seasonal variations of the synoptic-scale transient eddy activity (STEA) and the jet streams over East Asia are examined through analysis of the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. Extracted from the 6-hourly upper-level wind fields, the distribution of the jet core numbers exhibits a distinct geographical border for the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) and the East Asian polar front jet (EAPJ) at the latitudes of the northern Tibetan Plateau (TP). In the cool seasons, two branches of the STEA and low-level baroclinicity exist over the East Asian landmass, accompanied by the two-jet state of the EASJ and EAPJ. In the warm seasons, a single jet pattern of the EASJ along the north flank of the TP is accompanied by the weakened STEA over the mid- to high latitudes of East Asia. Further analysis shows two distinct features of the seasonal variations of the STEA over East Asia, compared with that over the North Pacific. First, during the transitional period of April–June, the main STEA band over East Asia migrates northward dramatically, in conjunction with the EAPJ shifting in the same direction. Second, both the upper-level STEA and the lower-level baroclinicity poleward of the TP are prosperous in spring. The relationship between the STEA, baroclinicity, vertical wind shear, and static stability in the EAPJ region in different seasons is further investigated. It is found that in addition to the time-mean wind fields, the rapid increase in the sensible heat flux poleward side of the TP region in spring and the associated boundary layer processes are partially responsible for the spring prosperity of the local baroclinicity and the STEA.

Intraseasonal Variability in a Dry Atmospheric Model

Abstract A long integration of a primitive equation dry atmospheric model with time-independent forcing under boreal winter conditions is analyzed. A variety of techniques such as time filtering, space–time spectral analysis, and lag regressions are used to identify tropical waves. It is evident that oscillations with intraseasonal time scales and a Kelvin wave structure exist in the model tropical atmosphere. Coherent eastward propagations in the 250-hPa velocity potential and zonal wind are found, with a speed of about 15 m s−1. The oscillation is stronger in the Eastern Hemisphere than in the Western Hemisphere. Interactions between the tropical and extratropical flows are found to be responsible for the simulated intraseasonal variability. Wave activity flux analysis reveals that a tropical influence occurs in the North Pacific region where a northeastward wave activity flux is found associated with the tropical divergent flow in the western and central Pacific. In the North Atlantic sector, on the other hand, a strong extratropical influence is observed with a southward wave activity flux into the Tropics. The extratropical low-frequency variability develops by extracting kinetic energy from the basic mean flow and through interactions with synoptic-scale transient eddies. Linear experiments show that the tropical atmospheric response to the extratropical forcing in the North Atlantic leads to an eastward-propagating wave in the tropical easterly mean flow of the Eastern Hemisphere.

Attribution of Atmospheric Variations in the 1997–2003 Period to SST Anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Ocean Basins

Abstract The individual impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the deep tropical eastern–central Pacific (DTEP) and Indo-western–central Pacific (IWP) on the evolution of the observed global atmospheric circulation during the 1997–2003 period have been investigated using a new general circulation model. Ensemble integrations were conducted with monthly varying SST conditions being prescribed separately in the DTEP sector, the IWP sector, and throughout the World Ocean. During the 1998–2002 subperiod, when prolonged La Niña conditions occurred in DTEP and the SST in IWP was above normal, the simulated midlatitude atmospheric responses to SST forcing in the DTEP and IWP sectors reinforced each other. The anomalous geopotential height ridges at 200 mb in the extratropics of both hemispheres exhibited a distinct zonal symmetry. This circulation change was accompanied by extensive dry and warm anomalies in many regions, including North America. During the 1997–98 and 2002–03 El Niño events, the SST conditions in both DTEP and IWP were above normal, and considerable cancellations were simulated between the midlatitude responses to the oceanic forcing from these two sectors. The above findings are contrasted with those for the 1953–58 and 1972–77 periods, which were characterized by analogous SST developments in DTEP, but by cold conditions in IWP. It is concluded that a warm anomaly in IWP and a cold anomaly in DTEP constitute the optimal SST configuration for generating zonally elongated ridges in the midlatitudes. Local diagnoses indicate that the imposed SST anomaly alters the strength of the zonal flow in certain longitudinal sectors, which influences the behavior of synoptic-scale transient eddies farther downstream. The modified eddy momentum transports in the regions of eddy activity in turn feed back on the local mean flow, thus contributing to its zonal elongation. These results are consistent with the inferences drawn from zonal mean analyses, which accentuate the role of the eddy-induced circulation on the meridional plane.

Organization of Storm Tracks in Zonally Varying Flows

A simple two-layer quasigeostrophic model is employed to investigate the sensitivity of storm tracks to changes in an externally imposed, zonally varying large-scale flow. Zonally asymmetric temperature and horizontal deformation fields are varied systematically in order to compare the effects of baroclinicity and horizontal deformation on storm track dynamics. The sensitivity of the storm tracks to uniform barotropic zonal flows is also examined. The results show two competing processes for storm track organization, one associated with a local maximum in baroclinicity and the other with a local minimum in horizontal deformation. When the equilibrium state consists of a zonally symmetric temperature field and a barotropic stationary wave, the maximum in synoptic-scale transient eddy energy (storm track) is located in the entrance region of the upper jet just downstream of the point of minimum horizontal deformation. As zonal variations in baroclinicity become large (keeping the upper-layer horizontal deformation constant), the storm track shifts to the jet exit region just downstream of the point of maximum baroclinicity. For flows intermediate between the above cases,that is, having weaker zonal variations in baroclinicity and the same upper-layer deformation, two storm track maxima appear, one located in the jet entrance and the other in the jet exit region. The results also indicate that the storm tracks are sensitive to changes in a uniform barotropic zonal flow. The presence of a uniform westerly flow extends the storm track and strengthens eddy activity, while the addition of a uniform easterly flow shortens the storm track and dramatically weakens eddy activity. The changes in the magnitudes of eddy activity appear related to differences in the efficiency of nonlinear barotropic decay processes in weakening the eddies in the jet exit region. Sensitivities of the location of the storm tracks to changes in large-scale flow parameters are well captured by linear calculations, although sensitivities of the strength of the storm tracks are not. For sufficiently strong zonal variations in baroclinicity, two coherent modes of low-frequency variability develop. They are characterized synoptically by 1) a meridional shift, and 2) an extension/contraction as well as a modulation in the strength of the upper-layer jet and storm track.

Effects of Transient Eddies on Blocking Flows: General Circulation Model Experiments

Abstract Prediction of blocking flows by a comprehensive general circulation model is still not satisfactory. A large portion of the unskillful forecasts can be traced to the model's inability to predict the evolution of blocking beyond a few days into the forecast. Realizing the fact that blocking is often observed to form following a series of intensive cyclogenesis activities and that the model tends to underestimate the intensity of the synoptic-scale transient eddies, a series of 10-day forecasts were conducted to assess the impact of transient eddies on the establishment of blocking flows. When the fast-propagating synoptic-scale disturbances were suppressed in the initial conditions, the subsequent forecasts completely failed to predict a blocking anticyclone. However, when the transient eddies were enhanced in the initial conditions to compensate for the deficiency of the model, blocking flows were predicted and evolved in remarkable agreement with the observations. The dynamical processes during ...