Synoptic-scale Eddies Research Articles

Increases in the Local Eddy Energetics of the Extratropical Atmosphere over the Last Four Decades

Abstract Changes in the vertical and meridional temperature gradients of the atmosphere drive competing influences on storm-track activity. We apply local eddy energetics to the ERA5, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and NCEP-2 reanalyses during 1980–2020 to determine the locations, magnitudes, and trends of the energy transfer mechanisms for synoptic-scale eddies. Eddy kinetic energy (EKE) increases more rapidly in the Southern Hemisphere at all altitudes and seasons, with larger increases during austral winter and spring. In the Northern Hemisphere, increases occur within the Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks at pressures below 300 hPa but only during boreal winter and spring and confined within a narrow zonal band; EKE decreases during boreal summer and fall. Most EKE changes correspond with trends in baroclinic energy conversion upstream of storm tracks and appear to align with increases in the growth rate of the most unstable baroclinic mode. Barotropic energy conversion of EKE to the mean flow becomes locally more intense downstream of the storm tracks. Conversion of EKE to long-period eddies plays a minor role averaged over a hemisphere but can be important locally. The primary strengthening pathway for removal of EKE is a combination of surface friction and viscous dissipation. The increased baroclinic conversion in the Southern Hemisphere appears related to upper-level tropical temperature increases. In the Northern Hemisphere, increased baroclinic conversion is enabled by a combination of increased vertical heat fluxes and a region of temperature increases within 30°–60°N. Significance Statement Traveling atmospheric disturbances arrange into storm tracks that determine the weather in the midlatitudes. Storm tracks are evolving in time due to anthropogenic warming; however, the location and strength of temperature changes compete for influence on the storm tracks. A framework to quantify the mechanisms of generation of kinetic energy contained by eddies pinpoints the extent of storm-track evolution. Storm tracks generally strengthen across the planet but have increased the most in the Southern Hemisphere. Strengthening in the Northern Hemisphere is limited to the winter in a narrow latitudinal band, because of warming in the Arctic that reduces the primary instability that drives eddies. The locations of northern warming and storm-track strengthening suggest a role for tropical dynamics.

Impact of the North Pacific Meridional Mode on the Tropical Pacific Modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Abstract The North Pacific meridional mode (NPMM) peaking in boreal spring influences El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties in the ensuing winter. Whether the precursory impact of NPMM on the spatial diversity of ENSO has decadal variation remains unknown. Using long-term reanalysis datasets, we find that the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) significantly modulates the NPMM forcing on two types of ENSO. During the positive IPO (+IPO) phase, a strengthened background Aleutian low and southward-shifted storm track, in comparison to the negative IPO (−IPO) phase, produce stronger basin-scale negative geopotential height tendency anomalies over the North Pacific through synoptic-scale eddy–mean flow interaction. Such strong background negative tendency facilitates an Aleutian low–like pressure monopole rather than a North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)-like pressure dipole in boreal spring, leading to a weak NPMM that cannot effectively promote development of either a central Pacific (CP) or an eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO. By contrast, the NPO-like dipole enhances in boreal spring during −IPO, corresponding to stronger and more frequently occurring NPMM events that induce a robust CP-ENSO-like response in boreal winter. Moreover, the −IPO-related tropical Pacific mean states and the associated positive feedbacks cause a strong decrease in mixed layer temperature variance in the equatorial eastern Pacific, but a slight increase in the central Pacific, thus further contributing to the enhanced correlation between NPMM and CP-ENSO. Therefore, −IPO has played a role in the stronger impact of NPMM on CP-ENSO since the 1990s, and the modulation effects of IPO should be considered in understanding the extratropical–tropical climatic connection and ENSO spatial diversity.

The Siberian Storm Track Weakens the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Pattern

Abstract With a particular focus on the Siberian storm track, this study provides new insights into variations in the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia (WACE) temperature anomaly pattern by using reanalysis data. The results show that the Siberian storm track has a significant out-of-phase relationship with both the WACE pattern and Ural blocking on the interannual time scale. The strengthened WACE pattern can weaken the Siberian storm track through a suppression of the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity over midlatitude Eurasia. The weakened Siberian storm track can contribute to the WACE pattern through feedback forcing from synoptic-scale eddies, which can also create favorable conditions for the development of Ural blocking. Composite temporal evolution reveals that the strongest cold Arctic–warm Eurasia pattern is preceded by the peak of the Siberian storm track. The Ural cyclonic circulation reaches its maximum amplitude on the peak day of the Siberian storm track strength and continues to persist for one day with the maximum amplitude due to the feedback forcing resulting from the Siberian storm track. On the intraseasonal time scale, the occurrence of the Siberian storm track activity can serve as an early indication of the diminished Ural blocking and WACE pattern. Significance Statement Because of the high impacts of the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern on public safety, socioeconomic development, and the economy, it is crucial to enhance our understanding of variations in the WACE pattern. This paper specifically investigates the impact of internal atmospheric variability on the WACE pattern, focusing on a pronounced negative correlation between the Siberian storm track and the WACE pattern. Daily composites also reveal that Siberian storm track activities can promote a strong cold Arctic–warm Eurasia pattern by maintaining the strength of the quasi-stationary Ural cyclonic circulation. As such, paying close attention to Siberian storm track activities may hold the promise to improve the prediction of the strength of the WACE pattern.

Strengthening Relationship between the AO and the Occurrence Frequency of Arctic Daily Warming since the 1980s

Abstract Recently, the occurrence of Arctic winter daily warming events has attracted substantial attention from the media and scholars alike. Herein, these events are investigated further, particularly in respect of their relation with the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We define a Pacific pattern–Arctic rapid tropospheric daily warming (Pacific-RTDW) event, when the Arctic winter daily warming is triggered by a warm humid air mass that is transported by storms from the North Pacific into the Arctic. An anomalous northwest–southeast dipole pattern at 500-hPa geopotential is identified spanning from the Arctic to the North Pacific and associated with AO. The dipole pattern could favor the occurrence of Pacific-RTDW events because it induces a strong southerly in the middle troposphere, which mid-high-latitude storms may follow into the Arctic. In particular, the correlation between AO and the occurrence frequency of Pacific-RTDW events has strengthened since the early 1980s. This shift is attributed to the intensified Pacific storm-track (PST) activity intensity, which is possibly related to the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and has induced stronger synoptic-scale eddy feedbacks to low-frequency flows since this period. Accordingly, stronger feedbacks of the synoptic-scale eddies could provide a favorable condition for the formation of such a dipole pattern associated with the AO, bolstering the connection between AO and Pacific-RTDW events. In contrast, the eddy feedback to the flow is not strong enough and is, therefore, unable to provide favorable conditions before this period due to the comparatively weak PST intensity. Significance Statement The Arctic winter daily warming event may lead to more severe cold air outbreaks invading the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. We explored the climatic conditions favorable for the occurrence of Arctic winter daily warming events, thereby revealing that the correlated atmospheric circulation features a northwest–southeast dipole pattern. Additionally, since the early 1980s, the intensified Pacific storm-track activity is believed to have contributed to strengthening of the correlation between the Arctic Oscillation and the occurrence frequency of Arctic winter daily warming events. The findings here are expected to assist in prediction of future Arctic winter daily warming events.

Physical mechanisms for the dominant summertime high-latitude atmospheric teleconnection pattern and the related Northern Eurasian climates

Summertime atmospheric teleconnection patterns over Eurasia have a significant influence on regional weather and climate. Despite extensive studies on the subtropical patterns, the high-latitude counterpart has received relatively less attention. This study proposes physical mechanisms for the formation and maintenance of the dominant high-latitude teleconnection pattern. The formation of the pattern is associated with variability in synoptic-scale eddy activity due to the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature anomalies in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream, causing a meridional shift of the central axis of storm track at the exit of Atlantic jet. The resultant convergence of transient vorticity fluxes to the west of the British Isles induces low-frequency cyclonic circulation anomalies and continued propagation of Rossby waves downstream along northern Eurasia. Once these circulation anomalies are formed, the subsequent latent heat-related diabatic anomalies over the northern Eurasian landmass act as another source of Rossby waves to maintain the teleconnection pattern. Regional temperature and precipitation variability is closely linked to the wave pattern along a route through northern Eurasia, and even precipitation over the East Asian summer monsoon region is influenced by the teleconnection pattern.

Decadal changes in the relationship between Arctic stratospheric ozone and sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific

Using multi-source observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, this study found that the relationship between Arctic stratospheric ozone in March and North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in April shows dramatic decadal changes, and it significantly weakens since the 2000s. By enhancing the stratospheric circulations, a decreased Arctic stratospheric ozone favors tropospheric positive Arctic Oscillation (+AO)-like anomaly during PRE eras (1979–1999), with positive geopotential height (GH) anomalies over high-latitude Asia. The stratospheric ozone anomaly also favors the Asian positive GH anomalies via modulating high cloud and its related longwave radiation. According to geostrophic wind relationships, the Asian positive GH anomalies are accompanied by easterly anomalies over midlatitude Asia in late March, which further extend eastward and thereby induce easterly anomalies over the midlatitude North Pacific. The North Pacific easterly anomalies result in negative North Pacific Oscillation (–NPO)-like anomaly via vorticity forcing of zonal wind and the interactions between synoptic-scale eddies and mean flow, forcing significant SST anomalies. However, during POST eras (2000–2019), firstly, the +AO-related positive GH anomalies over high-latitude Asia are relatively weak, accompanied by weak easterly anomalies over midlatitude Asia according to geostrophic wind relations, which induce weak easterly anomalies over the North Pacific. Secondly, a westerly anomaly occurs over the midlatitude North Pacific, which partly offsets the easterly anomalies from Asia, weakening the North Pacific easterly anomalies. The weak easterly anomalies further induce weak –NPO and SST anomalies during the POST eras. Our analysis further indicates that the North Pacific westerly anomalies and weakening of the positive GH anomalies over high-latitude Asia associated with ozone are related to the interference of the westerly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation and the weakened stratospheric ozone anomaly over high-latitude Asia, respectively.

Distinct features of mid-winter North Pacific storm track suppression associated with central and eastern Pacific El Niños

The North Pacific storm track (NPST) represents intense activity of synoptic-scale eddies that are important for Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather systems. According to the linear baroclinic instability theory, the strength of the NPST should peak in January and February but is substantially weaker than that in late fall and early spring, a phenomenon termed mid-winter suppression (MWS). This study investigates the characteristics of the MWS associated with central-Pacific (CP) and eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niños mainly based on composite analyses in the HadISSTv1.1 and ERA-5 datasets. It is found that over the southern North Pacific (NP; south of 40°N), the peak of the NPST delays until January and thus the MWS does not appear during CP El Niño as that in climatology. In contrast, a prominent MWS-like feature is identified in January over this region during EP El Niño. Over the northern NP (north of 40°N), the MWS is largely enhanced in January and February during CP El Niño. Quantitative diagnosis of eddy kinetic energy conversion further reveals that different features of the MWS are mainly caused by baroclinic conversion anomalies. The two types of El Niño may affect the NPST and MWS by modifying the atmospheric thermal structure and exciting cross-Pacific wave trains, which are associated with different convective anomalies.

Distinct Influences of Two Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Modes on Synoptic-Scale Eddies over the Western North Pacific

Abstract The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO), which consists of a 10–30-day component and a 30–90-day component, is vigorous over the East Asian and the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon regions where synoptic-scale eddies are also active. In this study, we systematically compare and diagnose the modulating effects of the 10–30- and 30–90-day BSISO modes on the development and maintenance of the WNP synoptic-scale eddies in terms of eddy energetics. During the developing phase of the synoptic eddies, the eddies tend to grow faster under the background conditions associated with the 10–30-day BSISO mode, compared with that associated with the 30–90-day mode, indicating the importance of the 10–30-day mode in eddy development. In contrast, the 30–90-day BSISO mode shows a larger contribution to the maintenance of the synoptic eddy intensity after the eddies reach their maximum amplitude. On the basis of the diagnoses of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget equation, we find that the positive EKE advection induced by the 10–30-day flow is the leading process resulting in the increased EKE for eddy development. However, the 30–90-day circulation anomalies provide long-lasting favorable conditions (relative to those of the 10–30-day anomalies) to maintain the eddy intensity by generating a positive barotropic energy conversion from 30- to 90-day kinetic energy to EKE. These results not only advance our understanding of multiscale interactions over the WNP but also help toward better monitoring and prediction of synoptic-scale eddies, including tropical cyclones, using the background BSISO information. Significance Statement The western North Pacific is a region with active but complex multiscale interactions among synoptic-scale disturbances, intraseasonal oscillation, and low-frequency background monsoonal activity. The relative effects of 10–30- and 30–90-day intraseasonal variability on the synoptic-scale disturbances were quantitatively examined based on the eddy kinetic energy budget analysis. The results show that the 10–30-day (30–90-day) mode of intraseasonal oscillations plays a key role in the growth (maintenance) of synoptic-scale disturbances through the advection (barotropic energy conversion) process. The results suggest the implication of monitoring and predicting the activity of synoptic-scale disturbances using the information of two different intraseasonal modes.

Phase asymmetry in synoptic eddy feedbacks on the negatively-skewed winter NAO

The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exhibits a significantly negative skewness (−0.68) that the stronger dynamic structure characterizes the negative NAO. This study quantitatively investigates the phase asymmetries in different types of synoptic-scale eddy feedbacks associated with the winter-mean NAO, and the roles of different physical processes in eddy feedbacks are further clarified based on previous theories. The integrated feedback induced by eddy vorticity flux and eddy heat flux is stronger in the negative phase of NAO compared to the positive phase, which may provide an atmospheric internal dynamic explanation for the negative skewness of the winter NAO. This phase asymmetry of integrated eddy feedback is majorly contributed by the eddy vorticity flux–induced dynamic feedback, whose related physical processes involving eddy transport and secondary meridional circulation are stronger under the negative NAO. The eddy transport directly generates positive feedback to the NAO flow, and in addition, the secondary meridional circulation modulates the initially vertically-uneven dynamic feedback to become barotropic. In contrast, the weakly positive net contribution of eddy heat flux–induced thermodynamic feedback, which has received less attention in previous research, can somewhat dampen the phase asymmetry of integrated eddy feedback. The eddy heat flux generates positive (negative) feedback on the NAO flow in the lower (upper) troposphere via a secondary meridional circulation, thus leading to the integrated synoptic-scale eddy feedback being relatively stronger (weaker) in the lower (upper) troposphere.

A physical analysis of summertime North American heatwaves

This study examines the dominant heatwave variability over North America (NA), extracted from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of summertime monthly warm extreme index anomalies over 1959–2021. The principal mode features a dipole structure with a large area of anomaly over northwestern NA and an anomaly of opposite sign over the southern U.S. The corresponding principal component is associated with a large-scale atmospheric wave train extending from the North Pacific to North America (NP-NA) and a northeastward injection of moisture from the subtropical western Pacific towards western NA, which are key factors in supporting the NA heatwave variability. The NP-NA wave train can be systematically reinforced and supported by synoptic-scale eddies, and may also be forced by an anomalous convection over the tropical-subtropical western Pacific. Surface radiation heating directly contributes to surface temperature anomalies and is dominated by anomalous downwelling shortwave and longwave radiations. In association with a positive phase of the heatwave variability, the NP-NA wave train brings an anticyclonic anomaly over northern NA, leading to anomalous descent, reduced total cloud cover and below-normal precipitation and surface relative humidity over northern NA. Over northwestern NA, the anomalous subsidence causes air to warm through compression. Reduced cloud cover results in increased downward shortwave radiation that is a key contributor to surface radiation heating. In addition, increase in vertically integrated water vapour through the moisture injection from the North Pacific collocates with tropospheric warming. The atmosphere has more water vapor holding capability and acts as a greenhouse gas to absorb longwave radiation, leading to increased downward longwave radiation that is the second major contributor to surface radiation heating. Processes with circulation and surface radiation anomalies of opposite signs will likewise lead to the negative heatwave variability.

Effect of SST in the Northwest Indian Ocean on Synoptic Eddies over the South China Sea-Philippine Sea in June

Synoptic eddies (with a period of two to eight days) are active in the South China Sea-Philippine Sea (SCS-PS) and control weather variations. In addition, the intensity and frequency of synoptic eddies may change along with variations in sea surface temperatures (SST). This paper presented the influence of SST in the northwest Indian Ocean on synoptic eddies in the lower troposphere over the SCS-PS in June. Our statistical analysis showed a significant negative correlation between the SST in the northwest Indian Ocean and the synoptic scale eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the SCS-PS. By analyzing the EKE budget of synoptic eddies, we found that the variation in the synoptic scale EKE over the SCS-PS is mainly due to the change in the monthly zonal wind gradient, which affects the barotropic energy conversion between the monthly mean flow and the synoptic eddies. Additionally, the northwest Indian Ocean SST modulates the monthly flow over the SCS-PS by alternating the strength of the Walker circulation in the west Pacific and Indian Ocean. Finally, the influence of SST in the northwest Indian Ocean on EKE in the SCS-PS was reproduced using the simplified atmospheric general circulation model, SPEEDY.

Strengthened relationship between sea ice in East Siberian Sea and midsummer rainfall in Northeast China

Arctic sea ice displays the high rates of decay during summer-autumn. Previous studies have revealed the impact of autumn Arctic sea ice on local and remote atmospheric circulation. Few attentions have been paid on the relationship between summer Arctic sea ice and climate variation at Eurasia. This study identifies a strengthened relationship between midsummer rainfall at Northeast China (NEC) and simultaneous sea ice area (SIA) in East Siberian Sea after the 1990s. The NEC’s rainfall shows a significant positive correlation with the SIA during 1994–2016, whereas the relationship is insignificant during 1961–1983. The strengthening of the relationship is attributed to the western elongation of background circulation at the North Pacific and the increased interannual variability of the SIA after the 1990s. The former facilitates the western extension of the SIAI-associated circulation over the Central North Pacific. The enlarged amplitudes of sea ice induce surface heat fluxes in situ, and then it leads to stronger meridional temperature gradient anomalies and intensified interaction between synoptic-scale eddies and mean flow over the North Pacific. These conditions jointly contribute to stronger and western elongation of circulation over the Central North Pacific during 1994–2016. Accordingly, the SIA has an intimate connection with NEC’s rainfall though the modulation of moisture transport and vertical movement.

Effect of scale interaction on the development of typhoon intensity in summer and autumn

<p>本研究利用綜觀尺度擾動(SSE)動能方程式，定量分析尺度交互作用對颱風強度發展的影響。研究結果發現，強烈颱風(C3-C5等級，最大強度≥96 knots)的移動速度(發展時間)較弱颱風(C1-C2等級，最大強度64~95 knots)慢(長)，增強率較大。分析強颱移動速度較慢的原因，發現弱颱風與強烈颱風主要受到大尺度副高環流場的導引而移動。然而，強颱伴隨的駛流場較弱，其可能與副高環流場減弱及季風槽和季內震盪(ISO)氣旋式環流的增強有關。此外，強(弱)颱往西北方向(往西以及往北轉向)移動。而強颱增強率較強的原因為其東南-西北向的移動路徑，經過西北太平洋海溫最高、對流層頂溫度最低、垂直風切場最弱，以及ISO擾動動能最大的區域，有利強颱的強度發展。</p> <p>SSE動能方程式的研究結果顯示，在颱風從生成增強至最大強度的過程中，正壓能量轉換(CK項)與斜壓能量轉換(CE項)均是颱風強度增強的能量來源。CK項中的CKS-M 和CKS-ISO兩項均有正貢獻，即季節平均環流與ISO均傳送能量給颱風發展。然而，在颱風發展後期，強颱與弱颱CKS-ISO差異大，強颱自ISO 獲得較多能量。CKS-ISO差異主要來源為CKS-ISO中的-(〖u_s^’ v〗_s^’ (∂u_I^’)/∂y) ̅ 項，該項與強颱伴隨ISO氣旋式環流(-(∂u_I^’)/∂y>0)的增強及強颱 〖u_s^’ v〗_s^’向北傳送動量較多有關。因此，當ISO與颱風增強，強颱將自ISO 獲得更多能量。此外，因強颱與伴隨強颱的ISO氣旋式環流移速較慢，在颱風發展後期，強颱與ISO氣旋式環流仍位在暖洋面上。而ISO氣旋式環流南側西南氣流所提供的水氣，亦有利強颱的潛熱釋放，將強颱可用位能轉換成更多的強颱動能。此正回饋效應，使強颱得到較多能量而強度較強。因此，尺度交互作用是颱風強度發展的重要機制。</p> <p> </p><p>This study quantitatively analyzed the influence of scale interaction on typhoon intensity by using the synoptic-scale eddy (SSE) kinetic energy equation. Our research showed that speed of movement, development time, and intensification rate of intense typhoons (categories 3–5 with maximum sustained wind speeds greater than 96 knots) are slower, longer, and larger, respectively, than those of weak typhoons (categories 1–2 with maximum sustained wind speeds between 64 and 95 knots). By analyzing the reasons for the slower speed of movement of intense typhoons, we discovered that weak and intense typhoons are mainly steered by large-scale subtropical high circulation during the intensification process. However, the steering flow of intense typhoons are much weaker which may result from the weakened subtropical high circulation, the enhanced monsoon trough and strengthened intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) cyclonic circulation. In addition, intense typhoons were steered northwestward, while weak typhoons moved westward or northward recurving. The northwestward propagation of intense typhoons experienced the highest sea surface temperature (SST), lowest tropopause temperature, weakest vertical wind shear, and largest ISO kinetic energy region over the western North Pacific (WNP). These large-scale environments were favorable for the growth (a larger intensification rate) of intense typhoons.</p> <p>Further diagnosis of the SSE kinetic energy budget suggested that the enhancement of typhoon intensity is contributed by both barotropic (CK) and baroclinic (CE) energy conversions during the intensification process. The positive contributions of CKS-M and CKS-ISO in the CK term indicate that both seasonal mean circulation and ISO flow provide energy to typhoons. However, intense typhoons gain more eddy kinetic energy from the ISO flow during the late period of typhoon development. This CKS-ISO difference is dominated by the -(〖u_s^’ v〗_s^’ (∂u_I^’)/∂y) ̅ term associated with the strengthened ISO cyclonic circulation (-(∂u_I^’)/∂y>0) and the greater momentum transport (〖u_s^’ v〗_s^’) of intense typhoons. Thus, as ISO and typhoons intensified, intense typhoons gain more energy from ISO. In addition, both the intense typhoons and their accompanying ISO cyclonic circulation are still located over the warm ocean due to their slower speed of movement. The moisture provided by the southwesterly flows at the southern flank of this ISO cyclonic circulation was also favorable for the latent heat release of intense typhoons and converted more typhoon available potential energy into typhoon kinetic energy. This positive feedback causes intense typhoons to receive more energy and further results in more intensification of intense typhoons. This research indicates that scale interaction plays an important role in the development of typhoon intensity.</p> <p> </p>

Which Is the More Effective Driver of the Poleward Eddy Heat Flux Variability: Zonal Gradient of Tropical Convective Heating or Equator-to-Pole Temperature Gradient?

Abstract Future projections of the poleward eddy heat flux by the atmosphere are often regarded as being uncertain because of the competing effect between surface and upper-tropospheric meridional temperature gradients. Previous idealized modeling studies showed that eddy heat flux response is more sensitive to the variability of lower-tropospheric temperature gradient. However, observational evidence is lacking. In this study, observational data analyses are performed to examine the relationships between eddy heat fluxes and temperature gradients during boreal winter by constructing daily indices. On the intraseasonal time scale, the surface temperature gradient is found to be more effective at regulating the synoptic-scale eddy heat flux (SF) than is the upper-tropospheric temperature gradient. Enhancements in surface temperature gradient, however, are subject to an inactive planetary-scale eddy heat flux (PF). The PF in turn is dependent on the zonal gradient in tropical convective heating. Consistent with these interactions, over the past 40 winters, the zonal gradient in tropical heating and PF have been trending upward, while the surface temperature gradient and SF have been trending downward. These results indicate that for a better understanding of eddy heat fluxes, attention should be given to zonal convective heating gradients in the tropics as much as to meridional temperature gradients.

Surface ocean current variations in the North Pacific related to Arctic stratospheric ozone

Using reanalysis datasets and a coupled general circulation model, the relationship between springtime Arctic total column ozone (TCO) and surface (5 m) ocean currents in the North Pacific is investigated. We found that as March Arctic TCO decreases, a statistically significant northwestward ocean current anomaly occurs in the northern North Pacific in surface layer, but an anomalous southward ocean current appears in the central North Pacific in April, and vice versa. The decreased Arctic TCO favors an enhanced Arctic stratospheric circulation, which tends to induce the tropospheric positive Arctic Oscillation anomaly with easterly anomalies over the midlatitude eastern Asia in late March through stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling. The easterly anomaly over eastern Asia in late March further extends eastward and induces an easterly anomaly over the midlatitude North Pacific, which favors negative North Pacific Oscillation (–NPO)-like circulation anomaly via anomalous zonal wind shear and the interactions between synoptic scale eddies and the mean flow in early-middle April. The –NPO anomaly forces anomalous northwestward/southward surface ocean currents in the northern/central North Pacific through direct friction of wind and the Coriolis force. Our coupled numerical simulations with high- and low-ozone scenarios also support that the Arctic stratospheric ozone affects the North Pacific surface ocean currents by NPO anomalies. Moreover, the ozone-related ocean current anomalies contribute to Victoria mode-like sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific by horizontal heat advection. These results imply that Arctic ozone signal could be a predictor for variations of the North Pacific surface ocean currents.

Interdecadal Modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the Relationship Between Spring Arctic Oscillation and the Following Winter ENSO

Previous studies indicated that Arctic Oscillation (AO) in boreal spring is an important extratropical trigger for the outbreak of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the succedent winter. This study reveals that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a strong modulation on the linkage between the spring AO and the following winter ENSO. Particularly, impact of the spring AO on the succedent winter ENSO is strong during positive PDO phase (+PDO). By contrast, the spring AO-winter ENSO connection is weak during negative PDO phase (−PDO). During +PDO, positive spring AO induces a marked anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific via wave-mean flow interaction. The subtropical cyclonic anomaly leads to sea surface temperature (SST) warming and enhanced atmospheric heating there, which could further propagate southward to the tropical central Pacific via wind-evaporation-SST feedback mechanism and, thus, impact the following winter El Niño via the tropical process. During −PDO, the spring AO-generated SST, the atmospheric circulation, and the heating anomalies over the North Pacific are much weaker. As such, spring AO has weak impacts on the winter ENSO. The spring climatological storm track is stronger during +PDO than −PDO years due to an increase in the mean meridional temperature gradient over the North Pacific. Stronger storm track intensity during +PDO leads to stronger synoptic-scale eddy feedback to the mean flow, which results in stronger AO-related SST and atmospheric anomalies over the North Pacific and, thus, the stronger impact of the spring AO on the following winter ENSO.

Change in the variability in the Western Pacific pattern during boreal winter: roles of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies and North Pacific storm track activity

Using multiple reanalysis datasets, this study reveals that the variability in the western Pacific pattern (WP) in boreal winter has shown notable changes during recent decades. The variability in the winter WP exhibited a marked weakening trend before the early 2000s and increased slightly thereafter. Two epochs with the highest and lowest WP variabilities are selected for a comparative analysis. Winter WP-related meridional dipole atmospheric anomalies over the North Pacific were stronger and had a broader range during the high-variability epoch than during the low-variability epoch. Correspondingly, the winter WP had larger impacts on surface temperature variations over Eurasia and North America during the high-variability epoch than that during the low-variability epoch. We find that the shift in the winter WP variability is closely related to changes in the connection between the winter WP and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and to changes in the amplitude of the North Pacific storm track. Specifically, ENSO had a closer connection with the WP during the high-variability epoch, when the amplitude of the North Pacific storm track was also stronger. During the high-variability epoch, the extratropical atmospheric anomalies generated by the tropical ENSO shifted westward and projected more on the WP-related atmospheric anomalies, thus contributing to an increase in WP variability. In addition, the larger amplitude of the North Pacific storm track that occurred during the high-variability epoch led to the stronger feedback of synoptic-scale eddies to the mean flow and contributed to stronger WP variability. Further analysis indicates that the change in the connection of ENSO with the WP may be partly related to the zonal shift of the sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific associated with ENSO.

A Nonlinear Multiscale Theory of Atmospheric Blocking: Structure and Evolution of Blocking Linked to Meridional and Vertical Structures of Storm Tracks

AbstractThis paper examines the impact of the meridional and vertical structures of a preexisting upstream storm track (PUST) organized by preexisting synoptic-scale eddies on eddy-driven blocking in a nonlinear multiscale interaction model. In this model, the blocking is assumed, based on observations, to be comprised of barotropic and first baroclinic modes, whereas the PUST consists of barotropic, first baroclinic, and second baroclinic modes. It is found that the nonlinearity (dispersion) of blocking is intensified (weakened) with increasing amplitude of the first baroclinic mode of the blocking itself. The blocking tends to be long lived in this case. The lifetime and strength of blocking are significantly influenced by the amplitude of the first baroclinic mode of blocking for given basic westerly winds (BWWs), whereas its spatial pattern and evolution are also affected by the meridional and vertical structures of the PUST. It is shown that the blocking mainly results from the transient eddy forcing induced by the barotropic and first baroclinic modes of PUST, whereas its second baroclinic mode contributes little to the transient eddy forcing. When the PUST shifts northward, eddy-driven blocking shows an asymmetric dipole structure with a strong anticyclone–weak cyclone in a uniform BWW, which induces northward-intensified westerly jet and storm-track anomalies mainly on the north side of blocking. However, when the PUST has no meridional shift and is mainly located in the upper troposphere, a north–south antisymmetric dipole blocking and an intensified split jet with maximum amplitude in the upper troposphere form easily for vertically varying BWWs without meridional shear.

Meridional Tripole Mode of Winter Precipitation over the Arctic and Continental North Africa–Eurasia

AbstractWintertime precipitation is vital to the growth of glaciers in the northern hemisphere. We find a tripole mode of precipitation (PTM), with each pole of the mode extending zonally over the eastern hemisphere roughly between 30°W and 120°E, and the positive/negative/positive structure for its positive phase extending meridionally from the Arctic to the continental North Africa–Eurasia. The large-scale dynamics associated with the PTM is explored. The positive phase of the PTM is associated with the negative while eastward-shifted phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a zonal band of positive SST anomaly in the tropics, together with a narrowed Hadley cell and weakened Ferrel cell. While being north-eastward tilted and separated from their North Africa-Eurasia counterpart in the climatological mean, the upper-tropospheric westerly jets over the east Pacific and north Atlantic become extending zonally and shifting southward and hence form a circumpolar subtropical jet as a whole by connecting with the westerly jets over the North Africa-Eurasia. The enhanced zonal winds over the north Atlantic promote more synoptic-scale transient eddies which are waveguided by the jet streams. The polar vortex weakens and cold air dips southward from the North Pole. Further diagnosis of the E-vectors suggests that transient eddies have a positive feedback on the weakening of Ferrel cell. Opposite features are associated with the negative phase of the PTM. The reconstructed time series using multiple linear regression on the NAO index and the tropical SST averaged over 20°S– 20°N, can explain 62.4% of the variance of the original the original precipitation time series.

The Role of Planetary-Scale Eddies on the Recent Isentropic Slope Trend during Boreal Winter

AbstractAccording to baroclinic adjustment theory, the isentropic slope maintains its marginal state for baroclinic instability. However, the recent trend of Arctic warming raises the possibility that there could have been a systematic change in the extratropical isentropic slope. In this study, global reanalysis data are used to investigate this possibility. The result shows that tropospheric isentropes north of 50°N have been flattening significantly during winter for the recent 25 years. This trend pattern fluctuates at intraseasonal time scales. An examination of the temporal evolution indicates that it is the planetary-scale (zonal wavenumbers-1–3) eddy heat fluxes, not the synoptic-scale eddy heat fluxes, that flatten the isentropes; synoptic-scale eddy heat fluxes instead respond to the subsequent changes in isentropic slope. This extratropical planetary-scale wave growth is preceded by an enhanced zonal asymmetry of tropical heating and poleward wave activity vectors. A numerical model is used to test if the observed latent heating can generate the observed isentropic slope anomalies. The result shows that the tropical heating indeed contributes to the isentropic slope trend. The agreement between the model solution and the observation improves substantially if extratropical latent heating is also included in the forcing. The model temperature response shows a pattern resembling the warm-Arctic–cold-continent pattern. From these results, it is concluded that the recent flattening trend of isentropic slope north of 50°N is mostly caused by planetary-scale eddy activities generated from latent heating, and that this change is accompanied by a warm-Arctic–cold-continent pattern that permeates the entire troposphere.