Synoptic-scale Atmospheric Circulation Research Articles

Machine Learning Identification of Attributes and Predictors for a Flash Drought in Eastern Australia

Flash droughts (FDs) are natural disasters that strike suddenly and intensify quickly. They occur almost anywhere, anytime of the year, and can have severe socio-economic, health and environmental impacts. This study focuses on a recent FD that began in the cool season of the Upper Hunter region of Eastern Australia, an important energy and agricultural local and global exporter that is both flood- and drought-prone. Here, the authors investigate the FD that started abruptly in May 2023 and extended to October 2023. The FD followed floods in November 2021 and much above-average May–October 2022 rainfall. Eight machine learning (ML) regression techniques were applied to the 60 May–October periods from 1963–2022, using a rolling windows attribution search from 45 possible climate drivers, both individually and in combination. The six most prominent climate drivers, and likely predictors, provide an understanding of the major contributors to the FD. Next, the 1963–2022 data were divided into two shorter timespans, 1963–1992 and 1993–2022, generally accepted as representing the early and accelerated global warming periods, respectively. The key attributes were markedly different for the two timespans. These differences are readily explained by the impacts of global warming on hemispheric and synoptic-scale atmospheric circulations.

Changes in cloudiness contribute to changing seasonality in the Baltic Sea region

In the Baltic Sea region, a significant increase in solar radiation has been detected during the past half-century. Changes in shortwave irradiance are associated with atmospheric transparency and cloudiness parameters like cloud fraction and albedo. One of the most important reasons for day-to-day changes in cloudiness is the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation; thus, we look for reasons for solar radiation trends due to changes in atmospheric circulation. We analysed regional time series and trends from satellite-based cloud climate data record CLARA-A2 for the Baltic Sea region in 1982–2018. As the rise in solar radiation depends on the seasonally averaged values of total fractional cloud cover (CFC), surface incoming shortwave radiation (SIS) and occurrences of circulation types were analysed. We show that the shift in seasonality connected to the earlier accumulated sums of SIS is at least partly explained by the changes in synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.

Recreating the California New Year's Flood Event of 1997 in a Regionally Refined Earth System Model

AbstractThe 1997 New Year's flood event was the most costly in California's history. This compound extreme event was driven by a category 5 atmospheric river that led to widespread snowmelt. Extreme precipitation, snowmelt, and saturated soils produced heavy runoff causing widespread inundation in the Sacramento Valley. This study recreates the 1997 flood using the Regionally Refined Mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM‐E3SM) under prescribed ocean conditions. Understanding the processes causing extreme events informs practical efforts to anticipate and prepare for such events in the future, and also provides a rich context to evaluate model skill in representing extremes. Three California‐focused RRM grids, with horizontal resolution refinement of 14 km down to 3.5 km, and six forecast lead times, 28 December 1996 at 00Z through 30 December 1996 at 12Z, are assessed for their ability to recreate the 1997 flood. Planetary to synoptic scale atmospheric circulations and integrated vapor transport are weakly influenced by horizontal resolution refinement over California. Topography and mesoscale circulations, such as the Sierra barrier jet, are better represented at finer horizontal resolutions resulting in better estimates of storm total precipitation and storm duration snowpack changes. Traditional time‐series and causal analysis frameworks are used to examine runoff sensitivities state‐wide and above major reservoirs. These frameworks show that horizontal resolution plays a more prominent role in shaping reservoir inflows, namely the magnitude and time‐series shape, than forecast lead time, 2‐to‐4 days prior to the 1997 flood onset.

On dynamical downscaling of ENSO-induced oceanic anomalies off Baja California Peninsula, Mexico: role of the air-sea heat flux

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is responsible for important physical and biogeochemical anomalies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The event of 1997-98 has been one of the most intense in the last decades and it had large implications for the waters off Baja California (BC) Peninsula with a pronounced warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly adjacent to the coast. Downscaling of reanalysis products was carried out using a mesoscale-resolving numerical ocean model to reproduce the regional SST anomalies. The nested model has a 9 km horizontal resolution that extend from Cabo Corrientes to Point Conception. A downscaling experiment that computes surface fluxes online with bulk formulae achieves a better representation of the event than a version with prescribed surface fluxes. The nested system improves the representation of the large scale warming and the localized SST anomaly adjacent to BC Peninsula compared to the reanalysis product. A sensitivity analysis shows that air temperature and to a lesser extent wind stress anomalies are the primary drivers of the formation of BC temperature anomaly. The warm air-temperature anomalies advect from the near-equatorial regions and the central north Pacific and is associated with sea-level pressure anomalies in the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation. This regional warm pool has a pronounced signature on sea level anomaly in agreement with observations, which may have implications for biogeochemistry.

The role of atmospheric rivers in rainfall-induced landslides: A study from the Elqui valley

The purpose of the present study is to explore the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport that contribute to triggering landslides in the mid-Elqui basin (30°S, 70.5°W) since the early 20th century. A total of 12 storms during the modern period (1957–2017) were identified from various sources and analyzed using ERA5 Reanalysis data. An additional set of eight storms was included and characterized using 20th Century Reanalysis data. The results reveal that high-amplitude, deep troughs extending into the subtropics off the west coast of South America are ubiquitous in these storms. Maximum integrated water vapor transport from the northwest (NW) or west-northwest (WNW) was observed on the coast (25–30°S), with values sometimes exceeding 300 kg s-1 m-1, often reaching more than five standard deviations above the mean. Atmospheric rivers near the study region were found to be involved in all 12 modern landslide-producing storms. Moreover, most storms occur during the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and/or phases 7–8–1 of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Backward-trajectory analyses indicate that in all but one of the modern storms, water vapor transport originated in the Central Tropical Pacific, where ocean warming characterizes the convective phases of ENSO and/or MJO.

Role of land surface processes on Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Understanding and impact assessment

Indian Summer Monsoon is a synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation system manifested by the boundary forcing from both continents and tropical oceans. Unlike oceans, the land surface processes are complex in nature due to the heterogeneities in land surface characteristics and its associated feedbacks, thereby constraining theaccurate representation of the land surface in NWP models. Thus, understanding the land-atmosphere interaction becomes increasingly crucial especially during the Indian summer monsoon season due to the underlying warm and moist surface layer conducive forevapotranspiration, thereby fueling land atmosphere coupling during the season. The representation of surface heterogeneity and variability are constrained due to lack of surface measurements which necessitate development of land surface analysis. The major aimof the present studyisthree-fold;firstly, understanding land surfaces processes associated with the monsoonal rainfall events, secondly, preparation of a state-of-art high-resolution land surface data over India, andfinally, impact assessment of high-resolution land surface initialization on simulation monsoonalrainfall events. This study has implications for developing improved prediction system associated with the Indian Summer Monsoon.
 Indian Summer Monsoon is a synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation system manifested by the boundary forcing from both continents and tropical oceans. Unlike oceans, the land surface processes are complex in nature due to the heterogeneities in land surface characteristics and its associated feedbacks, thereby constraining theaccurate representation of the land surface in NWP models. Thus, understanding the land-atmosphere interaction becomes increasingly crucial especially during the Indian summer monsoon season due to the underlying warm and moist surface layer conducive forevapotranspiration, thereby fueling land atmosphere coupling during the season. The representation of surface heterogeneity and variability are constrained due to lack of surface measurements which necessitate development of land surface analysis. The major aimof the present studyisthree-fold;firstly, understanding land surfaces processes associated with the monsoonal rainfall events, secondly, preparation of a state-of-art high-resolution land surface data over India, andfinally, impact assessment of high-resolution land surface initialization on simulation monsoonalrainfall events. This study has implications for developing improved prediction system associated with the Indian Summer Monsoon.

Last millennium hydroclimate and atmospheric circulation change in Northeast China: A dual δ13C and δ18O approach from a mountaintop Sphagnum bog

Northeast China receives most moisture through warm air masses from the western Pacific Ocean and some moisture from the Eurasian Continent predominantly through the westerlies. Changes in the contribution of these different moisture sources affect the amount and isotopic composition of precipitation, which would in turn influence peatland surface moisture and peat moss (Sphagnum) growth. Recently a dual δ13C and δ18O approach from peat-core archive has been used not only as a proxy for peatland moisture/wetness but also as a constraint for interpreting isotope in precipitation and moisture trajectories. Here we used the coupled δ13C and δ18O measurements of peat moss cellulose, along with macrofossil and other proxy data, from a well-dated peat core retrieved from a Sphagnum-dominated ombrotrophic (meteoric water-fed) bog in Northeast China to reconstruct regional climate and moisture sources of precipitation over the last millennium.Our results show no sign of extremely negative δ13C signals that would have been caused by the uptake of respired CO2 by peat moss for photosynthesis, thus we argue that the cellulose δ13C signatures document the peatland moisture conditions, owing to water-film effect. We found a positive correlation between δ13C and δ18O, suggesting that δ18O primarily reflects the δ18O signal in precipitation rather than evaporative 18O-enrichment, because the evaporative enrichment would result in a negative correlation between these isotopes as documented in modern process studies along the hummock-hollow moisture gradients. We propose that the positive δ13C-δ18O correlation is a general feature in regions that are influenced by both summer monsoon and the westerlies, as warm Pacific moisture that has high δ18O values also brings abundant precipitation, resulting in wet conditions that induce high δ13C values, and vice versa. The δ13C results show a decrease of ca. 6‰ from −23 to −29‰, with large-magnitude fluctuations, over the last 1000 years, suggesting a long-term drying trend. An abrupt decrease at 1370 CE of 4‰ in δ18O from >21‰ to ca. 17‰ represents the transition from the warm and wet Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) at 815–1370 CE to the cold and dry Little Ice Age (LIA) at 1370–1940 CE, reaching the lowest δ18O value of ca. 15‰ at around 1850 CE. The increase in δ18O to 19‰ after 1900 CE reflects post-LIA climate warming. Enhanced moisture transport from the western Pacific might have contributed to the warm and wet MCA. Three short intervals with pronounced low δ13C and δ18O values occurred at 1370–1450 CE, the 19th Century, and the 1990s, suggesting extreme dry periods with reduced Pacific moisture inputs. The driest period with consistently low δ13C value of < -25‰ (Suess effect-corrected value of −23‰) occurred after 1990 CE, with a corresponding increase in dry-adapted moss Polytrichum.Variability in the regional atmospheric circulation—the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH)—might have explained the change in moisture sources. The westward extension of the WPSH—often corresponding with the El Niño-like conditions—would block the Pacific moisture from transporting to Northeast China. Our record, together with other paleo-records over monsoon-influenced regions in East Asia, shows synchronous but opposite shifts of summer rainfall anomalies in North or Northeast China and South China on decadal to centennial scales, substantiating a coherent atmospheric circulation pattern associated with WPSH and ENSO variability. We argue that there were major shifts in synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation and associated hydroclimate change during the MCA, LIA, and Current Warming Period in Northeast China.

Increasing atmospheric dust transport towards the western Mediterranean over 1948\u20132020

In this study, global reanalysis dataset fields of meteorological parameters (temperature and geopotential height at different atmospheric levels) in the period 1948–2020, were used to characterize the main dynamic and thermodynamic features of African dust outbreaks (ADO) produced over regions of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. The record of ADO previously identified with a tried-and-true procedure in 8 different areas of this domain in the period 2001–2020 and the data sets of dust load contributions estimated for all ADO days in each region, were used to check our results. Thus, we demonstrated that air masses of African origin produced a significant increase in the levels of certain thermodynamic variables (geopotential thickness in the 1000–500 hPa layer (GT), mean potential temperature between 925 and 700 hPa (TPOT), and temperature anomalies at 850 hPa (TANOM)) over the regions of study, especially when particular synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation types (CT) occurred. Moreover, higher levels of the three thermodynamic parameters resulted in events with higher contributions of dust load to the regional background levels of PM10 in all regions. Finally, we obtained a statistically significant upward trend for days under ADO CT and their associated daily mean values of GT, TPOT and TANOM from 1948 to 2020. These results point to an increase in the frequency of air mass transport from North Africa to the western Mediterranean basin and on the intensity of the ADO produced as a consequence of this transport, over 1948–2020.

Possible Environmental Influence on Eyewall Expansion During the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Helene (2006)

Tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is usually accompanied by a rapid eyewall contraction, followed by a slow contraction, and then a nearly steady eyewall. However, this study shows that Hurricane Helene (2006) exhibited an eyewall expansion during its 30-h rapid intensification period. The possible environmental influence on the eyewall expansion during the RI of Helene is examined. It is found that the synoptic-scale circulations led to additional low-level inflows and upper-level outflows that may play an important role in the eyewall expansion during the RI of Helene. Examination of the divergence of the absolute angular momentum flux (AAMF) associated with the environmental circulation suggests that the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation played an important role in the eyewall expansion during the RI of Helene. In the lower and middle troposphere, the synoptic-scale cross-equatorial flow, which was enhanced by the Helene-induced wave train, led to the horizontal convergence of absolute angular momentum flux, while the TC-trough interaction and the related outflow in the upper troposphere resulted in the divergence of AAMF. The environment-induced low-level convergence and upper-level divergence of AAMF were superimposed on the secondary circulation of Helene and may be important to the eyewall expansion during the RI by accelerating the tangential wind outside of the eyewall. This study suggests that RI can occur with an eyewall expansion.

Effectiveness of emission control in reducing PM&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2.5&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; pollution in central China during winter haze episodes under various potential synoptic controls

Abstract. Currently, mitigating severe particle pollution in autumn and winter is the key to further improving the air quality of China. The source contributions and transboundary transport of fine particles (PM2.5) in pollution episodes are closely related to large-scale or synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation. How to effectively reduce emissions to control haze pollution under different synoptic conditions is rarely reported. In this study, we classify the synoptic conditions over central China from 2013 to 2018 by using Lamb–Jenkinson method and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Final (FNL) operational global analysis data. The effectiveness of emission control to reduce PM2.5 pollution during winter haze episodes under potential synoptic controls is simulated by GEOS-Chem model. Among the 10 identified synoptic patterns, four types account for 87 % of the total pollution days. Two typical synoptic modes are characterized by low surface wind speed and stable weather conditions or high relative humidity (A or C type) over central China due to a high-pressure system or a southwest trough and low-pressure system, blocking pollutants dispersion. Sensitivity simulations show that these two heavy pollution processes are mainly contributed by local emission sources with ∼82 % for A type and ∼85 % for C type, respectively. The other two patterns lead to pollution of transport characteristics affected by northerly or southerly winds (NW or SW type), carrying air pollution from northern or southern China to central China. The contribution of pollution transmission from northern and southern China is 36.9 % and 7.6 %, respectively of PM2.5, and local emission sources contribute 41 % and 69 %, respectively. We also estimate the effectiveness of emission reduction in these four typical severe pollution synoptic processes. By only reducing SO2 and NOx emission and not controlling NH3, the enhanced nitrate counteracts the effect of sulfate reduction on PM2.5 mitigation, with a less than 4 % decrease in PM2.5. In addition, to effectively mitigate haze pollution of NW- and SW-type synoptic-controlled episodes, local emission control actions should be in coordination with regional collaborative actions.

Synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with deep persistent slab avalanches in the western United States

Abstract. Deep persistent slab avalanches are capable of destroying infrastructure and are usually unsurvivable for those who are caught. Formation of a snowpack conducive to deep persistent slab avalanches is typically driven by meteorological conditions occurring in the beginning weeks to months of the winter season, and yet the avalanche event may not occur for several weeks to months later. While predicting the exact timing of the release of deep persistent slab avalanches is difficult, onset of avalanche activity is commonly preceded by rapid warming, heavy precipitation, or high winds. This work investigates the synoptic drivers of deep persistent slab avalanches at three sites in the western USA with long records: Bridger Bowl, Montana; Jackson, Wyoming; and Mammoth Mountain, California. We use self-organizing maps to generate 20 synoptic types that summarize 5899 daily 500 mbar geopotential height maps for the winters (November–March) of 1979/80–2017/18. For each of the three locations, we identify major and minor deep persistent slab avalanche seasons and analyze the number of days represented by each synoptic type during the beginning (November–January) of the major and minor seasons. We also examine the number of days assigned to each synoptic type during the 72 h preceding deep persistent slab avalanche activity for both dry and wet slab events. Each of the three sites exhibits a unique distribution of the number of days assigned to each synoptic type during November–January of major and minor seasons and for the 72 h period preceding deep persistent slab avalanche activity. This work identifies the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns contributing to deep persistent slab instabilities and the patterns that commonly precede deep persistent slab avalanche activity. By identifying these patterns, we provide an improved understanding of deep persistent slab avalanches and an additional tool to anticipate the timing of these difficult-to-predict events.

Arctic Snow Isotope Hydrology: A Comparative Snow-Water Vapor Study

The Arctic’s winter water cycle is rapidly changing, with implications for snow moisture sources and transport processes. Stable isotope values (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) of the Arctic snowpack have potential to provide proxy records of these processes, yet it is unclear how well the isotope values of individual snowfall events are preserved within snow profiles. Here, we present water isotope data from multiple taiga and tundra snow profiles sampled in Arctic Alaska and Finland, respectively, during winter 2018–2019. We compare the snowpack isotope stratigraphy with meteoric water isotopes (vapor and precipitation) during snowfall days, and combine our measurements with satellite observations and reanalysis data. Our analyses indicate that synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation and regional sea ice coverage are key drivers of the source, amount, and isotopic composition of Arctic snowpacks. We find that the western Arctic tundra snowpack profiles in Alaska preserved the isotope values for the most recent storm; however, post depositional processes modified the remaining isotope profiles. The overall seasonal evolution in the vapor isotope values were better preserved in taiga snow isotope profiles in the eastern Arctic, where there is significantly less wind-driven redistribution than in the open Alaskan tundra. We demonstrate the potential of the seasonal snowpack to provide a useful proxy for Arctic winter-time moisture sources and propose future analyses.

On a new statistical wave generator based on atmospheric circulation patterns and its applications to coastal shoreline evolution

Stochastic models have a long history in the simulation of synthetic data sequences for application to risk assessment e.g. in stochastic hydrology. Their use in coastal engineering has recently grown. In this study we illustrate some typical coastal vulnerability applications of a recently developed stochastic wave climate model that has links to synoptic scale atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). Wave data are explicitly used to delineate the links to CPs. This modelling approach allows for simulating long continuous time series of waves that are linked to their associated CPs. The time series can be used for various types of coastal vulnerability assessments as a new management tool. The east coast of South Africa is used as a case study. The results demonstrate the robustness of the modelling technique and the potential applications in coastal vulnerability assessments. The link to CPs facilitates the application of these methods to the assessment of future climate changes on coastal vulnerability.

Influence of synoptic scale atmospheric circulation on the development of urban heat island in Prague and Bucharest

This study has analysed the development of the urban heat island (UHI) under various synoptic scale atmospheric circulation for two large cities – Prague in central Europe and Bucharest in south-eastern Europe, including seasonal differences and long-term changes. At the best of our knowledge, it is the first comparison between two European cities from this perspective. Analysis was conducted on the base of minimum air temperature data from pairs of urban and peri-urban stations. The average UHI intensity is 2.3 °C for Prague and 1.8 °C for Bucharest, it exceeds 4 °C in 6–10% of cases, and the highest values occur in August in both cities. The annual course of monthly mean values of UHI intensities has higher amplitude in Bucharest (1.2 °C) than Prague (0.6 °C). Synoptic scale circulation is classified according to mean sea level pressure data from ECMWF Era-Interim reanalysis using cost733class software. The results show that UHI is more intense under anticyclonic situations with southern winds in the both cities. Over 1981–2016, we found that the UHI intensity followed statistically significant increasing trend, much larger trend for Bucharest than Prague (3.3 °C vs. 1.3 °C / 100 years).

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Extreme United States Floods Identified via Machine Learning

The massive socioeconomic impacts engendered by extreme floods provides a clear motivation for improved understanding of flood drivers. We use self-organizing maps, a type of artificial neural network, to perform unsupervised clustering of climate reanalysis data to identify synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme floods across the United States. We subsequently assess the flood characteristics (e.g., frequency, spatial domain, event size, and seasonality) specific to each circulation pattern. To supplement this analysis, we have developed an interactive website with detailed information for every flood of record. We identify four primary categories of circulation patterns: tropical moisture exports, tropical cyclones, atmospheric lows or troughs, and melting snow. We find that large flood events are generally caused by tropical moisture exports (tropical cyclones) in the western and central (eastern) United States. We identify regions where extreme floods regularly occur outside the normal flood season (e.g., the Sierra Nevada Mountains due to tropical moisture exports) and regions where multiple extreme flood events can occur within a single year (e.g., the Atlantic seaboard due to tropical cyclones and atmospheric lows or troughs). These results provide the first machine-learning based near-continental scale identification of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme floods with valuable insights for flood risk management.

Synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with summertime daily precipitation extremes in the middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

The mechanisms of short-lived precipitation extremes in boreal summer over the middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MLYRB) during 1961–2014 are explored using gridded observational and reanalysis datasets. Daily precipitation extremes are defined by the 75th and 95th percentiles and identified for selected regions in the MLYRB. Moisture budget analysis is utilized to quantify the major factors responsible for the variability of extreme precipitation events. Then the atmospheric variables are composited according to these extreme events, to illustrate the temporal evolution of the corresponding synoptic-scale structures. The results show that moisture flux convergence plays a dominant role in the variations of extreme rainfall for both percentile events, and the contribution of evaporation is not evident. Moreover, the dynamic component associated with changes in atmospheric circulation makes a larger contribution than the nonlinear component, followed by the thermodynamic component, owing to changes in specific humidity. The moisture transport pathways increase with increasing magnitude of extreme rainfall intensity. Circulation field anomalies move into the MLYRB during the onset of precipitation extremes for both percentile cases, with stronger anomalies occurring for the 95th percentile cases. Furthermore, the water vapor fluxes transported from the Northwest Pacific are pronounced during the 95th percentile events. A cross-section of specific humidity and vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature further indicates that dynamic properties play a crucial role in the development of extreme precipitation events linked with quasi-stationary frontal activities across the MLYRB during the past few decades. Composites of Eady growth rate and outgoing longwave radiation anomalies reveal that extratropical cyclones passing through the MLYRB produce a large amount of extreme rainfall by synoptic disturbance.

Holocene atmospheric circulation in the central North Pacific: A new terrestrial diatom and δ18O dataset from the Aleutian Islands

The North Pacific is a zone of cyclogenesis that modulates synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, yet there is a paucity of instrumental and paleoclimate data to fully constrain its long-term state and variability. We present the first Holocene oxygen isotope record (δ18Odiatom) from the Aleutian Islands, using siliceous diatoms preserved in Heart Lake on Adak Island (51.85° N, 176.69° W). This study builds on previous work demonstrating that Heart Lake sedimentary δ18Odiatom values record the δ18O signal of precipitation, and correlate significantly with atmospheric circulation indices over the past century. We apply this empirical relationship to interpret a new 9.6 ka δ18Odiatom record from the same lake, supported by diatom assemblage analysis. Our results demonstrate distinct shifts in the prevailing trajectory of storm systems that drove spatially heterogeneous patterns of moisture delivery and climate across the region. During the early-mid Holocene, a warmer/wetter climate prevailed due to a predominantly westerly Aleutian Low that enhanced advection of warm 18O-enriched Pacific moisture to Adak, and culminated in a δ18Odiatom maxima (33.3‰) at 7.6 ka during the Holocene Thermal Maximum. After 4.5 ka, relatively lower δ18Odiatom indicates cooler/drier conditions associated with enhanced northerly circulation that persisted into the 21st century. Our analysis is consistent with surface climate conditions inferred from a suite of terrestrial and marine climate-proxy records. This new Holocene dataset bridges the gap in an expanding regional network of paleoisotope studies, and provides a fresh assessment of the complex spatial patterns of Holocene climate across Beringia and the atmospheric forces driving them.

Hydro-climatic variability and extremes over the Athabasca River basin: Historical trends and projected future occurrence

Since humans and ecosystems require adequate, reliable water supplies, hydro-climatic variability and extremes pose serious threats to society and the environment. Western Canada, including the Athabasca River Basin (ARB), is prone to considerable hydro-climatic variability including periodic extreme droughts and excessive moisture conditions. The main causes of these extremes are persistent, mid-tropospheric circulation patterns that disrupt expected precipitation and temperature. However, no investigation has specifically focused on the occurrence and causes of both past and future hydro-climatologic variability within the ARB. Assessment of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) reveals substantial inter-annual and decadal-scale variability over the entire ARB and its individual reaches, with no discernible trends during the last ~100 years. Evaluation of the 500-hPa circulation patterns associated with identified hydro-climatic extremes shows that major droughts are related to higher frequencies of distinctive ridging patterns over the ARB and fewer incidences of troughing. Excessive moisture conditions tend to have opposite patterns. Projections from several regional climate models reveal an average change toward more drought-like summer and slightly wetter annual conditions over the ARB, but there is a substantial range for individual models ranging from a considerable increase in drought with a higher degree of inter-annual variability, to relatively little change from current conditions. Simulated changes to key atmospheric circulations are consistent with these SPEI projections and indicate that those patterns associated with hydro-climatic extremes will continue in the future and in some cases, increase in frequency. Results from this analysis have quantified historical hydro-climatic variability in the ARB and have provided insight into potential future conditions as driven by changes to surface climate and synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

Evaluation of the performance of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) estimation over Iran

This study focuses on the evaluation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA v7) over Iran. The evaluation was conducted for a 16-year period extending between 1998 and 2013 using the rain gauge observation stations. The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation were well captured by the multi-satellite product TMPA. In spite of the consistent spatial and temporal patterns, the absolute values differed by season and region. The high performance of satellite database as compared with rain gauge observations was found over Zagros Mountains range in western parts of the country, where rainfall is mainly associated with synoptic scale atmospheric circulation patterns, in contrast with other regions of the country where convective events and complex orography play key roles. The product captured the wet and dry seasons well, but the performance increased throughout the wet period. In terms of the probability of detection rainy day events, TMPA had good performance in the western parts of the country with regard to rain gauge-based observations.

Combining dispersion modelling with synoptic patterns to understand the wind-borne transport into the UK of the bluetongue disease vector.

Bluetongue, an economically important animal disease, can be spread over long distances by carriage of insect vectors (Culicoides biting midges) on the wind. The weather conditions which influence the midge's flight are controlled by synoptic scale atmospheric circulations. A method is proposed that links wind-borne dispersion of the insects to synoptic circulation through the use of a dispersion model in combination with principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. We illustrate how to identify the main synoptic situations present during times of midge incursions into the UK from the European continent. A PCA was conducted on high-pass-filtered mean sea-level pressure data for a domain centred over north-west Europe from 2005 to 2007. A clustering algorithm applied to the PCA scores indicated the data should be divided into five classes for which averages were calculated, providing a classification of the main synoptic types present. Midge incursion events were found to mainly occur in two synoptic categories; 64.8% were associated with a pattern displaying a pressure gradient over the North Atlantic leading to moderate south-westerly flow over the UK and 17.9% of the events occurred when high pressure dominated the region leading to south-easterly or easterly winds. The winds indicated by the pressure maps generally compared well against observations from a surface station and analysis charts. This technique could be used to assess frequency and timings of incursions of virus into new areas on seasonal and decadal timescales, currently not possible with other dispersion or biological modelling methods.