Synoptic Analysis Research Articles

Synoptic analysis of the most severe flood in Karkheh basin (Flood 1 April 2019)

Synoptic analysis of the most severe flood in Karkheh basin (Flood 1 April 2019)

Assessing the Relationship between Urban Heat Islands and Local Climate Zones during a Winter Period in the Coastal City of Balneário Camboriú/SC, Brazil

This research seeks to understand the link between urban heat island and urban cool island, which are the Local Climatic Zones (LCZ) and atmospheric systems during the winter season in the city of Balneário Camboriú, Southern Brazil. First, meteorological data on the urban environment was collected at 11 permanent points in the Balneário Camboriú metropolitan region. Next, a synoptic analysis of the dates was performed to understand the atmospheric systems operating in the region. Finally, the LCZs map created for the city in the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools was used to correlate the magnitudes of the heat and cool islands found in Balneário Camboriú in the winter period. The results indicate that the increasing verticalization as a result of the construction of skyscrapers in Balneário Camboriú has a significant influence on local conditions for the occurrence of heat and cold islands. The findings indicate that LCZs with sparsely distributed buildings (LCZs 6, 8 and 9) and LCZs with dense vegetation (LCZ A) have lower intensity magnitudes of heat and cool conditions. The biggest magnitudes of heat and cool islands were reported in LCZs 1 and 3 during the timeframe. The synoptic analysis supports earlier research that points to atmospheric stability (Anticyclonic domain) as a favorable atmospheric setting for the emergence of urban heat and coolness islands.

Radical Thought and Political Practice: Officeholding and Accountability in Seventeenth-Century Britain

Abstract This article connects changes in administrative and bureaucratic processes that historians associate with state formation in early modern Britain with overlooked developments in thinking about political accountability. It blends the social history of state administration with intellectual history, and involves synoptic analysis as well as striking case studies. It argues that innovative political thinking emerged from new forms of political practice, and from the experiences of humble officials in the localities. Such individuals were increasingly professionalized and specialized, and their work was increasingly described using the language of trust, public interest, and state’s service. The mid-seventeenth century accentuated the process by which they came to be accountable to a centralized state, not least through the routinization and intensification of quotidian practices associated with enhanced communication between center and locality. Ultimately, the article argues that such processes, as well as more regular and direct interactions between political elites and humble officials, encouraged new kinds of political thinking. These were not quite unintended, but they may not have been fully anticipated either, and they involved innovative attempts to subject higher officials to oversight from “below,” and to legitimize their accountability to an adjudicating public, in ways that may even have had a lasting effect on English political culture.

Synoptic Analysis and WRF‐Chem Model Simulation of Dust Events in the Southwestern United States

AbstractDust transported from rangelands of the Southwestern United States (US) to mountain snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin during spring (March‐May) forces earlier and faster snowmelt, which creates problems for water resources and agriculture. To better understand the drivers of dust events, we investigated large‐scale meteorology responsible for organizing two Southwest US dust events from two different dominant geographic locations: (a) the Colorado Plateau and (b) the northern Chihuahuan Desert. High‐resolution Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry model (WRF‐Chem) simulations with the Air Force Weather Agency dust emission scheme incorporating a MODIS albedo‐based drag‐partition was used to explore land surface‐atmosphere interactions driving two dust events. We identified commonalities in their meteorological setups. The meteorological analyses revealed that Polar and Sub‐tropical jet stream interaction was a common upper‐level meteorological feature before each of the two dust events. When the two jet streams merged, a strong northeast‐directed pressure gradient upstream and over the source areas resulted in strong near‐surface winds, which lifted available dust into the atmosphere. Concurrently, a strong mid‐tropospheric flow developed over the dust source areas, which transported dust to the San Juan Mountains and southern Colorado snowpack. The WRF‐Chem simulations reproduced both dust events, indicating that the simulations represented the dust sources that contributed to dust‐on‐snow events reasonably well. The representativeness of the simulated dust emission and transport in different geographic and meteorological conditions with our use of albedo‐based drag partition provides a basis for additional dust‐on‐snow simulations to assess the hydrologic impact in the Southwest US.

An Observational Case Study of a Radiation Fog Event

A micrometeorological fog experiment was carried out in Budapest, Hungary during the winter half year of 2020–2021. The field observation involved (i) standard meteorological and radiosonde measurements; (ii) surface radiation balance and energy budget components, and (iii) ceilometer measurements. 23 fog events occurred during the whole campaign. Foggy events were categorized based on two different methods suggested by Tardif and Rasmussen (2007) and Lin et al. (2022). Using the Present Weather Detector and Visibility sensor (PWD12), duration of foggy periods are approximately shorter (~ 9%) compared to ceilometer measurements. The categorization of fog based on two different methods suggests that duration of radiation fogs is lower compared to that of cloud base lowering (CBL) fogs. The results of analysis of observed data about the longest fog event suggest that (i) it was a radiation fog that developed from the surface upwards with condition of a near neutral temperature profile. Near the surface the turbulent kinetic energy and turbulent momentum fluxes remained smaller than 0.4 m2 s–2 and 0.06 kg m–1 s–2, respectively. In the surface layer the vertical profile of the sensible heat flux was near constant (it changes with height ~ 10%), and during the evolution of the fog, its maximum value was smaller than 25 W m–2, (ii) the dissipation of the fog occurred due to increase of turbulence, (iii) longwave energy budget was close to zero during fog, and a significant increase of virtual potential temperature with height was observed before fog onset. The complete dataset gives an opportunity to quantify local effects, such as tracking the effect of strengthening of wind for modification of stability, surface layer profiles and visibility. Fog formation, development and dissipation are quantified based on the micrometeorological observations performed in suburb area of Budapest, providing a processing algorithm for investigating various fog events for synoptic analysis and for optimization of numerical model parameterizations.

Simulation and synoptic investigation of a severe dust storm originated from the Urmia Lake in the Middle East

Dried lake beds are one of the largest sources of dust in the world, causing environmental problems in the surrounding areas. In this study, the desiccated Urmia Lake was the primary source of dust for all nearby synoptic stations during the April 24-25, 2017 dust episode. Synoptic analysis revealed that the heavy dust storm was triggered by a strong Black Sea cyclone and a low-pressure system over central Iraq in conjunction with a vast high-pressure system. HYSPLIT-based trajectory analysis showed that high PM10 recorded over the Urmia Lake region on April 23-26, 2017, influenced western Azerbaijan, the south of the Caspian Sea, southwestern Kazakhstan, northwestern Uzbekistan, and western Turkmenistan. The dustiest air masses (PM10 > 400 µg m–3) affected the south of the Caspian Sea and western Azerbaijan. Furthermore, the WRF-Chem model was run to evaluate the spatial distribution of dust particles in the study region. The vertical profile revealed that the simulated dust concentration ascended to 5 km from the lake. The WRF-Chem dust schemes accurately simulated dust propagation and the vertical dust profile over Urmia Lake; however, the AFWA and GOCART dust schemes showed that PM10 fluctuating changes were earlier than the measured surface PM10 at five stations around Urmia Lake on April 23-26, 2017. Furthermore, the maximum amount anticipated by the model simulation was 12 h earlier than the maximum surface mass concentration of measured PM10 at the stations throughout the period.

Evaluation of a Decade-Long Prospective Earthquake Forecasting Experiment in Italy

Abstract Earthquake forecasting models represent our current understanding of the physics and statistics that govern earthquake occurrence processes. Providing such forecasts as falsifiable statements can help us assess a model’s hypothesis to be, at the least, a plausible conjecture to explain the observations. Prospective testing (i.e., with future data, once the model and experiment have been fully specified) is fundamental in science because it enables confronting a model with completely out-of-sample data and zero degrees of freedom. Testing can also help inform decisions regarding the selection of models, data types, or procedures in practical applications, such as Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. In 2010, a 10-year earthquake forecasting experiment began in Italy, where researchers collectively agreed on authoritative data sources, testing rules, and formats to independently evaluate a collection of forecasting models. Here, we test these models with ten years of fully prospective data using a multiscore approach to (1) identify the model features that correlate with data-consistent or -inconsistent forecasts; (2) evaluate the stability of the experiment results over time; and (3) quantify the models’ limitations to generate spatial forecasts consistent with earthquake clustering. As each testing metric analyzes only limited properties of a forecast, the proposed synoptic analysis using multiple scores allows drawing more robust conclusions. Our results show that the best-performing models use catalogs that span over 100 yr and incorporate fault information, demonstrating and quantifying the value of these data types. Model rankings are stable over time, suggesting that a 10-year period in Italy can provide sufficient data to discriminate between optimal and suboptimal forecasts. Finally, no model can adequately describe spatial clustering, but those including fault information are less inconsistent with the observations. Prospective testing assesses relevant assumptions and hypotheses of earthquake processes truly out-of-sample, thus guiding model development and decision-making to improve society’s earthquake resilience.

Synoptic Analysis and Subseasonal Predictability of an Early Heatwave in the Eastern Mediterranean

Greece and the surrounding areas experienced an early warm spell with characteristics of a typical summer Mediterranean heatwave in mid-May 2020. The maximum 2 m temperature at Kalamata (southern Greece) reached 40 °C on 16 May and at Aydin (Turkey), it was 42.6 °C on 17 May. There was a 10-standard deviation positive temperature anomaly (relative to the 1975–2005 climatology) at 850 hPa, with a southwesterly flow and warm advection over Greece and western Turkey from 11 to 20 May. At 500 hPa, a ridge was located over the Eastern Mediterranean, resulting in subsidence. The aims of this study were (a) to investigate the prevailing synoptic conditions during this event in order to document its occurrence and (b) to assess whether this out-of-season heatwave was predictable on subseasonal timescales. The subseasonal predictability is not a well-researched scientific topic in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The ensemble global forecasts from six international meteorological centres (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—ECMWF, United Kingdom Met Office—UKMO, China Meteorological Administration—CMA, Korea Meteorological Administration—KMA, National Centers for Environmental Prediction—NCEP and Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia—HMCR) and limited area forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Advanced Research dynamic solver (WRF) forced by Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv.2; NCEP) forecasts were evaluated for lead times ranging from two to six weeks using statistical scores. WRF was integrated using two telescoping nests covering Europe, the Mediterranean basin and large part of the Atlantic Ocean, with a grid spacing of 25 km, and Greece–western Turkey at 5 km. The results showed that there were some accurate forecasts initiated two weeks before the event’s onset. There was no systematic benefit from the increase of the WRF model’s resolution from 25 km to 5 km for forecasting the 850 hPa temperature, but regarding the prediction of maximum air temperature near the surface, the high resolution (5 km) nest of WRF produced a marginally better performance than the coarser resolution domain (25 km).

Investigating the Role of the Low-Level Jet in Two Winters Severe Dust Rising in Southwest Iran

The dust storms with local and non-local dust sources mostly affect Khuzestan province in southwest (SW) Iran. In this study, the role of the low-level jet in the activation of the internal dust events in SW Iran during two severe dust cases was investigated. For this purpose, the fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis for the global climate and weather (ERA5) data was used to identify the synoptic patterns and the low-level jet (LLJ) characteristics in the study area. Furthermore, the images of the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, the outputs of the hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, and a weather research and forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) were used to investigate the propagation and transport of the dust particles. The results of the synoptic analysis in both dust cases show the simultaneous occurrence of the divergence zone associated with cyclonic curvature in the subtropical jet stream (STJ) at 300 hPa, causing convergence at 925 hPa, upward motion, and the development of low surface pressure in SW Iran. Examining the vertical wind profile shows the existence of the maximum horizontal wind speeds of 975 to 875 hPa, along with the positive and negative shear below and above it, respectively, which emphasizes the existence of the LLJ and its role in local dust emission. The results of the comparison between the satellite images, WRF-Chem, and HYSPLIT model outputs show the formation and transportation of dust particles from the inner regions of Khuzestan in SW Iran. The horizontal dust surface distribution, vertical raised dust mass, and kinetic energy transfers are well simulated by the WRF-Chem model when LLJ broke at 09:00 to 12:00 UTC. The most important finding of this research is that, for the first time, the role of low-level jet is investigated in the activation of internal dust events in SW Iran.

Synoptic Analysis of Flood-Causing Rainfall and Flood Characteristics in the Source Area of the Yellow River

The source area of the Yellow River (SAYR) in China is an important water yield and water-conservation area in the Yellow River. Understanding the variability in rainfall and flood over the SAYR region and the related mechanism of flood-causing rainfall is of great importance for the utilization of flood water resources through the optimal operation of cascade reservoirs over the upper Yellow River such as Longyangxia and Liujiaxia, and even for the prevention of flood and drought disasters for the entire Yellow River. Based on the flow data of Tangnaihai hydrological station, the rainfall data of the SAYR region and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2020, three meteorological conceptual models of flood-causing rainfall—namely westerly trough type, low vortex shear type, and subtropical high southwest flow type—are established by using the weather-type method. The mechanism of flood-causing rainfall and the corresponding flood characteristics of each weather type were investigated. The results show that during the process of flood-causing rainfall, in the westerly trough type, the mid- and high-latitude circulation is flat and fluctuating. In the low vortex shear type, the high pressures over the Ural Mountains and the Okhotsk Sea are stronger compared to other types in the same period, and a low vortex shear line is formed in the west of the SAYR region at the low level. The rain is formed during the eastward movement of the shear line. In the subtropical high southwest flow type, the low trough of Lake Balkhash and the subtropical high are stronger compared to other types in the same period. Flood-causing rainfall generally occurs in areas with low-level convergence, high-level negative vorticity, low-level positive vorticity, convergence of water vapor flux, a certain amount of atmospheric precipitable water, and low-level cold advection. In terms of flood peak increment and the maximum accumulated flood volume, the westerly trough type has a long duration and small flood volume, and the low vortex shear type and the subtropical high southwest flow type have a short duration and large flood volume.

Combined use of HYSPLIT model and MODIS aerosols optical depth to study the spatiotemporal circulation patterns of Saharan dust events over Central Europe

Mineral dust released from the desert region and transported into the atmosphere has a crucial impact on the Earth's climate system's biogeochemical cycle. It has serious adverse effects on human health. The Sahara is one of the world's dustiest areas. This investigation intends to uncover the underlying reasons for atmospheric dust dispersion throughout the year by tracking the dusttransport and deposition in Central Europe, focusing on arid areas of North Africa. In this paper, we use the GDAS (Global Data Assimilation System) archival meteorological database to compute the analytical forward trajectories and configure the particle concentrations using the HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model. Besides, we investigate the synoptic meteorological conditions of acute Saharan dust episodes to determine the dynamic atmospheric system during their onset. The forward trajectories reveal the seasonality of wind-blown dust throughout the year. Dust storms are typically more prevalent in the spring, with a second peak in the Summer. As a result, particle transport takes various paths as the seasons and climatic conditions change. The most dust-laden masses, which reach high altitudes from the source areas, are often transported to Central Europe, where their seasonal distribution is relatively similar to that of the studied African region. However, the intensity and frequency of Saharan dust events (SDEs) have significantly changed in the previous decades, with an increased number of intense winter storms. According to the synoptic analysis, this variability is strongly linked to two factors. (1) The intensity and lifetime variation of the Mediterranean cyclones and (2) Climate change triggered lee-side (Sharav) cyclogenesis modified by the topographic complexity of Atlas. This study also confirmed the effectiveness of the HYSPLIT model in simulating atmospheric dust after comparing it with annual aerosol optical depth measurements from MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data.

Validating Landsat Analysis Ready Data for Nearshore Sea Surface Temperature Monitoring in the Northeast Pacific

In the face of global ocean warming, monitoring essential climate variables from space is necessary for understanding regional trends in ocean dynamics and their subsequent impacts on ecosystem health. Analysis Ready Data (ARD), being preprocessed satellite-derived products such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST), allow for easy synoptic analysis of temperature conditions given the consideration of regional biases within a dynamic range. This is especially true for SST retrieval in thermally complex coastal zones. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of 30 m resolution Landsat ARD Surface Temperature products to measure nearshore SST, derived from Landsat 8 TIRS, Landsat 7 ETM+, and Landsat 5 TM thermal bands over a 37-year period (1984–2021). We used in situ lighthouse and buoy matchup data provided by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO). Excellent agreement (R2 of 0.94) was found between Landsat and spring/summer in situ SST at the farshore buoy site (>10 km from the coast), with a Landsat mean bias (root mean square error) of 0.12 °C (0.95 °C) and a general pattern of SST underestimation by Landsat 5 of −0.28 °C (0.96 °C) and overestimation by Landsat 8 of 0.65 °C (0.98 °C). Spring/summer nearshore matchups revealed the best Landsat mean bias (root mean square error) of −0.57 °C (1.75 °C) at 90–180 m from the coast for ocean temperatures between 5 °C and 25 °C. Overall, the nearshore image sampling distance recommended in this manuscript seeks to capture true SST as close as possible to the coastal margin—and the critical habitats of interest—while minimizing the impacts of pixel mixing and adjacent land emissivity on satellite-derived SST.

Mechanisms Accounting for the Formation of the Strong Winds that Caused the Tripping Incident of Transmission Line in Eastern Inner Mongolia

Meteorological disasters pose a serious threat to the State Grid Corporation of China, which covers ~ 88% of Chinese national territory. Of these, strong winds deserve a special attention, as they often induce windage yaw discharge of transmission lines and even toppling of transmission towers, resulting in serious economic losses. On 28 June 2023, a severe tripping incident of transmission line appears in Eastern Inner Mongolia due to strong winds. In this study, we conduct comprehensive analyses to clarify the favorable background conditions and governing mechanisms for producing the strong winds. Main results are shown as follows. Synoptic analysis indicates that, the favorable background environments for the event are characterized by a strong upper-level jet associated upper tropospheric divergence; an intense middle-level warm advection ahead of a shortwave trough; and a long-lived lower-tropospheric mesoscale vortex. The strong winds that cause the tripping incident mainly occur in the southeastern quadrant of the vortex. Vorticity budget presents that the period from the mesoscale-vortex’s formation to 4 h before is crucial to the mesoscale vortex, as cyclonic vorticity increases rapidly mainly due to the lower-level convergence-related vertical stretching. In contrast, the horizontal transport mainly results in a net export of cyclonic vorticity, which is the most detrimental factor. Kinetic energy (KE) budget shows that, after the mesoscale vortex forms, the strong winds within its southeastern quadrant enhance rapidly. Overall, the positive work done by the pressure gradient force associated with the mesoscale vortex dominates the enhancement of strong winds; the horizontal transport of KE is the second dominant factor, and the vertical transport of KE (i.e., the downward momentum transportation) shows the least contribution.

A Case Study on Wind Speed Oscillations Offshore the West Coast of Central Taiwan

Abstract This paper investigates a wind speed oscillation event that occurred near the coastline of central Taiwan in the afternoon of 17 February 2018, using data from observations and numerical simulations. The observed wind speeds at 100-m altitude displayed a fast-oscillating pattern of about 6 cycles between strong winds of approximately 21 m s−1 and weak winds of around 2 m s−1, with periods of about 10 min. The pressure anomalies fluctuated in antiphase with the wind speed anomalies. The synoptic analysis revealed the influence of a continental high pressure system, resulting in a cold-air outbreak over Taiwan. The cold north-northeasterly winds split into two branches upon encountering Taiwan’s topography, with ridging off the east coast and a lee trough off the west coast of Taiwan. Wind oscillations were detected in the low-level cold air offshore the west coast of Taiwan, depicted by wavelike structures in wind speeds, sea level pressure, and potential temperature. The perturbations were identified as Kelvin-Helmholtz billows characterized by regions of strong wind speeds, warm and dry air, sinking motions, and low pressure collocated with each other, while regions of weaker wind speeds, cooler and moister air, ascending motions, and high pressure were associated with each other. With terrain contributing to favorable conditions, the large vertical and horizontal wind shears resulted from the southward acceleration of low-level cold air and the northward movement of the lee trough played an important role in initiating the wind oscillations.

Analyzing urban influence on extreme winter precipitation through observations and numerical simulation of two South China case studies

This study investigates the impact of urbanization on extreme winter rainfall in the South China Greater Bay Area (GBA) through the analysis of hourly station observations and simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-SLUCM). Data from 2008 to 2017 reveal that urban areas in the GBA experience lower 99th percentile hourly winter rainfall intensity compared to surrounding rural regions. However, urban locations exhibit higher annual maximum hourly rainfall (Rmax) and very extreme rainfall events (99.99th percentile) in winter, suggesting a positive influence of urbanization on extreme winter precipitation. A case study further underscores the role of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in enhancing extreme rainfall intensity and probability in the GBA urban areas. Additionally, two extreme cases were dynamically downscaled using WRF-SLUCM, involving four parallel experiments: replacing urban land use with cropland (Nourban), using historical urban land use data from 1999 (99LS), projecting near-future urban land use for 2030 (30LS), and considering 2030 urban land use without anthropogenic heat (AH) (30LS-AH0). Synoptic analysis demonstrates that cold air intrusion suppresses the GBA UHI in Case 2013 but not in Case 2015. Reduced evaporation and humidity induced by urban surfaces significantly decrease urban precipitation in Case 2013. In contrast, the persistent UHI in Case 2015 enhances local convection and land–ocean circulation, leading to increased moisture flux convergence and amplified urban precipitation intensity and probability in 30LS compared to Nourban. This amplification is primarily attributed to AH, while the change in 99LS remains insignificant. These findings suggest that urban influences on extreme precipitation in the GBA persist during winter, particularly when the UHI effect is maintained.

The meteorology and impacts of the September 2020 Western United States extreme weather event

In September 2020, Western North America was impacted by a highly anomalous meteorological event. Over the Pacific Northwest, strong and dry easterly winds exceeded historically observed values for the time of year and contributed to the rapid spread of several large wildfires. Nine lives were lost and over 5000 homes and businesses were destroyed in Oregon. The smoke from the fires enveloped the region for nearly two weeks after the event. Concurrently, the same weather system brought record-breaking cold, dramatic 24-h temperature falls, and early-season snowfall to parts of the Rocky Mountains. Here we use synoptic analysis and air parcel backward trajectories to build a process-based understanding of this extreme event and to put it in a climatological context. The primary atmospheric driver was the rapid development of a highly amplified 500 hPa tropospheric wave pattern that persisted for several days. A record-breaking ridge of high pressure characterized the western side of the wave pattern with a record-breaking trough of low pressure to the east. A notable anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking event occurred as the wave train amplified. Air parcel backward trajectories show that dry air over the Pacific Northwest, which exacerbated the fire danger, originated in the mid-troposphere and descended through subsidence to the surface. At the same time, dramatic temperature falls were recorded along the east side of the Rocky Mountains, driven by strong transport of high-latitude air near the surface.

Synoptic Analysis: Teachers’ Commitment in Nigeria

This study attempts to analyse the extent of teachers’ commitment among secondary schools of Zamfara State, Nigeria. The study was designed as descriptive research. Population of the study consisted of 28 Public Secondary Schools in Gusau Local Government Area of Zamfara State with a total number of 367 in-service teachers. From the population of the study, 19 Public Secondary Schools were sampled, wherein 190 teachers were extracted as participants in the study through simple random sampling technique using Morgan and Krejcie’s (1971) table of determining sample size. A structured questionnaire titled ‘Teacher Commitment Questionnaire’ with 15 items developed by Allen (1997) which was constructed on a 4-point Likert scale was employed as an instrument for data collection. Data analysis was made through descriptive statistics using mean and standard deviation. The paper portrayed that, teachers’ commitment towards teaching profession among public secondary schools of Zamfara State was on moderate extent with reference to its average mean value of (M=2.62, SD=1.61). This paper recommends that, in order to improve teachers’ commitment, more efforts should be offered by the stakeholders in education sector for ensuring a positive adjustment of successful course delivery of teachers and most importantly the academic achievement of the learners.

Synoptic analysis and simulation of a widespread dust event in the Urmia Basin

Synoptic analysis and simulation of a widespread dust event in the Urmia Basin

A comprehensive investigation of the causes of drying and increasing saline dust in the Urmia Lake, northwest Iran, via ground and satellite observations, synoptic analysis and machine learning models

Nowadays, dried lakes have turned into important dust sources with serious environmental, climatic and socio-economic impacts. In this study, climatic, terrestrial and anthropogenic effects that caused desiccation of the Urmia Lake, NW Iran are investigated. The main objective is to assess the influence of climatic and regional factors against anthropogenic and local ones in the dryness of the lake during the last two decades. Annual temperature, precipitation and wind speed data measured at nearby meteorological stations, along with water discharge of eight main rivers flowing into the lake are analyzed. The results reveal that the main cause for turning Urmia into a dried lake bed was human interference, since climatic factors contributed positively but to a lesser degree, while terrestrial factors may also play a crucial role. Among anthropogenic interferences, the construction of a causeway had a weak effect in the lake's dryness, while construction of many river dams highly contributed to this disaster. Furthermore, four machine learning models showed that groundwater decline is also an important factor for lake's desiccation. Analysis of dusty days at stations in the Urmia Basin showed similar inter-annual and seasonal dust variability over the whole western Iran. This indicates that dust over the Urmia Basin is mainly affected by the regional dust activity, while the dried lake beds contribute to a lesser degree to the enhanced dust loading. The dominant wind flow is mostly southwesterly, carrying Urmia saline dust toward NE directions, affecting Tabriz city. Three main synoptic clusters, with dipole features consisted of high-pressure systems over Europe, Central Mediterranean and North Africa and low pressure over SW Asia, facilitated strong westerly winds from arid, desert areas of the Middle East toward the Urmia Basin during 118 dust storms in the region.

Tropical Transition of Tropical Storm Kirogi (2012) over the Western North Pacific: Synoptic Analysis and Mesoscale Simulation

Abstract Tropical transition (TT) is a cyclogenesis process in which a baroclinic disturbance is transformed into a tropical cyclone. Many studies have analyzed TT events over the North Atlantic. This study assesses TT processes from a possible subtropical cyclone to Tropical Storm Kirogi at a relatively high latitude over the western North Pacific in an environment of enhanced baroclinicity in August 2012. Analyses based on satellite observations, the JRA-55 reanalysis, and a simulation with 2.5-km horizontal grid spacing demonstrate three stages during the TT: the baroclinic, intermediate, and convective stages. Over the baroclinic stage, Kirogi had an asymmetric comma-shaped cloud pattern with convection in the northern and eastern parts of the cyclone. This convection is attributed to quasigeostrophic forcing and frontogenesis associated with advection of warm and moist air. Vorticity locally generated by this convection was advected to the cyclone center by cyclone-relative northerly flow. Kirogi also had a shallow warm-core structure due to the interaction with an upper-level cold trough extending from the midlatitudes. In the intermediate stage, the warm and moist air in the lower troposphere and the cold trough in the upper troposphere wrapped around Kirogi. In the convective stage, Kirogi attained characteristics of a typical tropical cyclone with convection concentrated near the cyclone center and a deep warm-core structure. These results demonstrate that baroclinic processes can directly trigger formation of a tropical storm at relatively high latitudes over the western North Pacific in a similar manner to that over the North Atlantic. Significance Statement Tropical cyclogenesis is an important process for early identification of tropical cyclone hazards. Tropical transition is a tropical cyclogenesis process that is triggered by a subtropical or extratropical disturbance. It is unique to relatively high latitudes and has social importance particularly for midlatitude countries. There have been fewer studies on tropical transition over the western North Pacific than over the North Atlantic. This study demonstrates the dynamics of a distinct tropical transition event that led to the formation of Tropical Storm Kirogi (2012) at a relatively high latitude over the western North Pacific.