Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area Research Articles

Effectiveness of vaccination, travel load, and facemask use control strategies for controlling COVID Delta variant: the case of Sydney Metropolitan Area

AbstractThe Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, specifically identified as B.1.617.2, is responsible for the severe outbreaks witnessed globally, including in various countries and cities, with Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (Sydney GMA) being no exception. According to scientific studies, the Delta strain exhibits increased contagion and leads to a higher incidence of vaccine breakthrough cases, posing significant challenges to pandemic control efforts. In this study, we explore the efficacy of three fundamental control strategies—namely, vaccination rates, adherence to facemask usage, and the management of travel loads—in mitigating the spread of the disease and, consequently, eliminating the Delta variant pandemic in Sydney GMA. We employ an agent-based disease spread model to thoroughly investigate these strategies. Moreover, factorial MANOVA is utilised to assess the significance of variations in the impact of diverse compliance levels with the aforementioned control strategies on various attributes of the pandemic. As complete lockdowns and stringent travel regulations have the potential to induce physical and mental distress in individuals and economic crises for countries, our study examines the interactive effects of implementing control strategies to mitigate the necessity for a full lockdown. The simulation results suggest that suppressing a pandemic with similar characteristics to Delta variant of COVID is feasible with a vaccination rate of 80% or higher, as long as travel load and activity participation are maintained at pre-COVID levels. Alternatively, a more realistic and attainable combination of control measures—a vaccination rate of 60%, a facemask usage level of 60%, and a 50% compliance level for social distancing—demonstrates comparable efficacy, leading to effective pandemic control. Notably, the vaccination rate emerges as a more potent control strategy compared to others in the elimination of the disease within society.

Easing or tightening control strategies: determination of COVID-19 parameters for an agent-based model.

Some agent-based models have been developed to estimate the spread progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to evaluate strategies aimed to control the outbreak of the infectious disease. Nonetheless, COVID-19 parameter estimation methods are limited to observational epidemiologic studies which are essentially aggregated models. We propose a mathematical structure to determine parameters of agent-based models accounting for the mutual effects of parameters. We then use the agent-based model to assess the extent to which different control strategies can intervene the transmission of COVID-19. Easing social distancing restrictions, opening businesses, speed of enforcing control strategies, quarantining family members of isolated cases on the disease progression and encouraging the use of facemask are the strategies assessed in this study. We estimate the social distancing compliance level in Sydney greater metropolitan area and then elaborate the consequences of moderating the compliance level in the disease suppression. We also show that social distancing and facemask usage are complementary and discuss their interactive effects in detail.

Simultaneous location of firms and jobs in a transport and land use model

The majority of transport planning model systems used in forecasting travel demand as input into project evaluation treat the location of firms as a given, and hence the best these model systems can do in terms of assessing the response of firms to improvements in transport systems is to redistribute the number of existing workers (as a proxy for the number of jobs) between zonal locations, holding the total number of jobs and firms constant (with the exception of an overall growth in jobs). Some exceptions assume an inducement response based on simple rules of firm response as a way of approximating induced trip demand attributable to the change in the number of firms. What is typically missing is an endogenous treatment of firm location choice through a formal model that is integrated into a transport and land use model system in a way that allows for feedback between travel and firm location. This integration is critical to capture the change in the total amount of business activity in each location and overall, that is not simply based on an-across-the-board assumption on the annual growth in jobs. This paper presents a jointly estimated aggregate zonal model of the number of firms and jobs in which the number of jobs is influenced by the number of firms at a specific location, together with elasticity estimates of each influencing effect in each industry sector. The employment model predictions for each industry sector can be input into a workplace location choice model in any integrated transport and location model system to obtain predictions of the impact of transport policies on the location decisions of firms. The Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (SGMA) is used as a case study to estimate the systems of firm and employment location models.

A workplace choice model accounting for spatial competition and agglomeration effects

This paper develops a new model of workplace choice for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (SGMA) and describes the way in which this model is integrated into a general modelling framework of MetroScan, an improved version of the Transportation and Environment Strategy Impact Simulator Transportation (TRESIS). The developed model accounts for spatial competition of alternative workplaces via accessibility variables measured to attractions of both the same and different types. The new model also has two new refinements. First, a much finer geographical level is used for modelling worker's choice of workplace given the location of firms and the distribution of jobs. Second, an employment agglomeration effect is incorporated by the inclusion of jobs in the industry class relevant to the worker and two accessibility measures. Modelling analysis on data collected from a survey conducted in Sydney in 2013 identifies highly significant spatial competition and employment agglomeration effects explaining workplace choice. The application of this model to analyse policy relating to the redistribution or growth of jobs within a general framework of MetroScan is discussed.

Use of a syndromic surveillance system to describe the trend in cycling-related presentations to emergency departments in Sydney.

To describe population-based trends in cycling-related presentations to EDs over the past decade. A retrospective cohort of road trauma patients (motor vehicle, motor cyclist, cyclist and pedestrian) presenting to EDs in the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area between 2004 and 2013 was obtained using the Public Health Real-time Emergency Department Surveillance System. The outcomes of interest were the cycling-related ED presentation rate per 1000 population, as well as the proportion of cycling-related presentations that died in ED or were admitted to a critical care ward. Trends in ED presentation rates based on presentation counts and Sydney population data were plotted and described. There were 68,438 cycling-related presentations identified, representing 30% of all road trauma patients presenting to EDs in Sydney. There was a 91% increase in cycling-related presentations for the 35 to 64-year-old age group and a 123% increase in cycling-related presentations in the 65-year-old and over age group. All other age groups were associated with a stable or decrease in cycling-related ED presentation rates. The proportion of presentations requiring critical care ward admission or death in ED has decreased by 20%. Using an ED syndromic surveillance system, cycling-related ED presentation rates in Sydney Australia have increased in those aged 35 years and over the past 10 years, with a relative decrease in the proportion of deaths in ED or those requiring critical care admission.

A32 How much walking do Sydneysiders do in their daily life? Evidence from the Household Travel Survey

Abstract Background The aim is to quantify the amount of walking undertaken by Sydneysiders in the ‘tours’ they make from home. The purpose of quantifying the amount of walking in tours is to provide an evidence base for the key public health message currently advising “more walk trips”. Individuals travel primarily to undertake activities at their destinations. In Sydney, of all tours, only about 20% of home tours are wholly walk trips with the remaining 80% of home tours using car and public transport as the main modes of travel. Given the low density nature of Sydney, converting a car-based or public transport trip to a wholly walk trip may not be possible if the individual is to reach their desired destination. Methods The paper uses three years pooled data from the NSW Household Travel Survey (HTS). The HTS is a large source of personal travel data for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA) and is a survey first conducted in 1997/98 and has been running continuously since then. The HTS includes between 3,000 and 3,500 households in any given year and pooling 3 years of data gives reliable estimates of travel at the geographical level. This paper investigates the drivers of wholly walk tours, including journey purpose and built environment factors as explanatory variables using a double hurdle model. Alongside this, the paper investigates car-based and public transport tours to identify walking as part of these tours. The combination and comparison provides an evidence base as to why and how people walk both in wholly walk tours and as walking as part of a home tour. Results 80% of Sydneysiders walk less than 20 min a day and, if walking is the only physical activity people do, about 87% of the population do not meet the recommended physical activity guidelines. Converting small motorised trip segments to walking trips results in a very small proportional change to the population meeting the guidelines. The double hurdle model’s partial effects allow an understanding of how to target public health message in relation to the determinants of walking. Conclusions Walking to access activities is shown to contribute more to total walking than walking to access motorised modes. Thus, the current public health message “covering short distances on foot” would be better replaced by “doing more activities on foot” to increase the proportion of Sydneysiders meeting the physical activity guidelines through walking.

Provision of smoking cessation services in Australian community pharmacies: a simulated patient study

With the rising interest in expanding pharmacists' role in smoking cessation, it is pertinent that community pharmacists be equipped with up-to-date knowledge and competence to provide optimal therapeutic services that meet the demands of various presenting subsets of smokers. To investigate and evaluate responses to requests of quitting smoking from 'high risk' smokers seeking assistance and treatment within the pharmacy venue. Community pharmacies located within Sydney greater metropolitan area, New South Wales, Australia. A simulated patient methodology was utilised. Two scenarios were developed and enacted by two trained simulated patients in 100 randomly selected pharmacies. Scenario 1 involved a 28-year-old pregnant female who presents with a request for help in quitting smoking. Scenario 2 involved a 22-year-old female requesting a quit smoking product for her 55-year-old father who has cardiovascular problems. A standardised scoring key was designed to assess the performance of pharmacists during each encounter. The primary outcome measure was the supply/non-supply of nicotine replacement products and the corresponding provision of counselling and advice to facilitate smoking cessation. A product(s) was supplied in 42 % of the 100 encounters, while a product was adequately suggested pending doctor's referral in 45 %. In 13 % of the cases, a product was not supplied based on inappropriate notions of nicotine replacement therapy not being safe in the presented scenario. Pharmacists performed better in dispensing scores (counselling about product use) as compared to pre-dispensing scores (eliciting patient history). ANOVA followed by regression analysis indicated that the estimated age and gender of the pharmacist/staff were significant predictors affecting total scores. Whilst pharmacists' counselling about smoking cessation aids seems satisfactory, further education is required to improve practice standards in terms of matching a patient's history and smoking status to an appropriate product.

Fresh market tomatoes for production on raised beds in New South Wales

The aim of the experiments described in this paper was to identify determinate cultivars suited to production of fresh market tomatoes on raised beds in the inland irrigation areas of the south-west area of New South Wales from January to April. Cultivars that produce high yields of first-grade medium to large fruit, and are smooth, nearly round, firm and an even bright red when ripe are required. The plants should have good leaf coverage to prevent sunburn, and jointless pedicels to facilitate harvesting. The period of maturation of the fruit should be short to permit recovery of the crop with a maximum of 3 harvests. Ten lines including Sunny, a .reference cultivar with jointed pedicels, were evaluated at Richmond in the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area and at Leeton in the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area, 1984-86. The lines were trickle-irrigated and mulched with black polyethylene film except at Leeton in 1985-86 when a trickle-irrigated, no mulch treatment and a furrow-irrigated treatment were included. The experiments showed that it is possible to produce yields of 50-100 t ha-1 of first-grade fruit with trickle irrigation. No significant advantage was obtained at Leeton in 1985-86 by using polyethylene mulch; however, the mulch largely eliminated the need for hand-chipping of weeds from among the plants. The visual quality of fruit grown at Leeton was excellent but total soluble solids levels were low, ripe fruit were unexpectedly soft, and sensory scores for flavour and general acceptability were only satisfactory. Overall, 2 cultivars that have jointless pedicels, Red Chief and Delta Contender, showed promise. A jointless hybrid line, HARU 83-148, which was bred at Richmond, warrants further evaluation. Some signs of incipient field chilling of fruit were observed at Leeton in fruit harvested after the first week in April.