Soil And Water Assessment Tool Model Research Articles

An examination of the fluctuation and long-term persistence of drought regimes in the Jing River basin using the PDSI–SWAT model

An examination of the fluctuation and long-term persistence of drought regimes in the Jing River basin using the PDSI–SWAT model

Hydrological Modeling of Krishna Upper Catchment Area of India Using Multisite Calibration and Validation of SWAT Model

Multisite calibration & validation of model reduces the uncertainty present in the model parameters and improve the SWAT model output. In the present study, an effort was made to set up SWAT model along with multisite calibration and validation for Kishna upper basin of India. A total of six gauging stations maintained by Central water commission across the area were selected for SWAT model calibration and validation. Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) programme of SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Programme) was employed to calibrate the SWAT model. During sensitivity analysis of SWAT model, parameters which are highly sensitive that influences flow characteristics of different gauging station were identified. These parameters along with parameter range were used to calibration and validation of SWAT model each of the sub basins. Observed flow and predicted stream flows were compared with certain model performance indices. These indices indicated that for all six gauging stations, the SWAT model found to be very good. The performance indices like R2, NSE, RSR and PBIAS were ranged from 0.70 to 0.84, 0.67 to 0.76, 0.49 to 0.57 and -11.7 to 24.0% respectively during model calibration period and 0.70 to 0.93, 0.67 to 0.83, 0.41 to 0.58 and 8.5 to 22.9% respectively during model validation period. A good agreement between observed and simulated flows at all the gauging stations were observed. It can be concluded that SWAT model output was improved with multisite calibration and validation of the model.

Advancing Water Security and Agricultural Productivity: A Case Study of Transboundary Cooperation Opportunities in the Kabul River Basin

The Kabul River Basin (KRB) is witnessing frequent flood and drought events that influence food production and distribution. The KRB is one of the world’s poorest regions regarding food security. Food security issues in the KRB include shifts in short-term climate cycles with significant river flow variations that result in inadequate water distribution. Due to the lack of hydro-infrastructure, low irrigation efficiency, and continuing wars, the Afghanistan portion of the KRB has experienced low agricultural land expansion opportunities for food production. This research assesses the relationship between flood mitigation, flow balances, and food production and, cumulatively, assesses the social and economic well-being of the population of the KRB. SWAT modeling and climate change (CCSM4) implications are utilized to assess how these relationships impact the social and economic well-being of the population in the KRB. The intricacies of transboundary exchange and cooperation indicate that the conservation of ~38% of the water volume would nearly double the low flows in the dry season and result in the retention of ~2B m3/y of water for agricultural developmental use. Results show that the peak flood flow routing in reservoirs on the Afghanistan side of the KRB would have a substantial positive impact on agricultural products and, therefore, food security. Water volume conservation has the potential to provide ~44% more arable land with water, allowing a ~51% increase in crop yield, provided that improved irrigation efficiency techniques are utilized.

Assessment and Application of Multi-Source Precipitation Products in Cold Regions Based on the Improved SWAT Model

In hydrological modeling, the accuracy of precipitation data and the reflection of the model’s physical mechanisms are crucial for accurately describing hydrological processes. Identifying reliable data sources and exploring reasonable hydrological evolution mechanisms for hydrology and water resources research in high-altitude mountainous regions with sparse stations and limited data constitute a significant challenge and focus in the field of hydrology. This study focuses on the Yarkant River Basin in Xinjiang, which originates from glaciers and contains a substantial amount of meltwater runoff. A dynamic glacier melt module considering the synergistic effects of multiple meteorological factors was developed and integrated into the original Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Four precipitation datasets (ERA5-land, MSWEP, CMA V2.0, and CHM-PRE) were selected to train the model, including remote sensing precipitation products and station-interpolated precipitation data. The applicability of the improved SWAT model and precipitation datasets in the source region of the Yarkant River was evaluated and analyzed using statistical indicators, hydrological characteristic values, and watershed runoff simulation effectiveness. The optimal dataset was further used to analyze glacier evolution characteristics in the basin. The results revealed the following: (1) The improved model fills the gap in glacier runoff simulation with respect to the original SWAT model, with the simulation results more closely aligning with the actual runoff variation patterns in the study area, better describing the meltwater runoff process. (2) CMA V2.0 precipitation data has the best applicability in the study area. This is specifically reflected in the rationality of the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of the inverted precipitation, the accuracy observed in capturing precipitation events and actual precipitation characteristics, the goodness of fit in driving hydrological models, and the observed precision in reflecting the composition of watershed runoff, all of which are superior to those pertaining to other precipitation products. (3) The glacier melt calculated using the improved SWAT model informed by CMA V2.0 shows that during the study period, the basin formed a pattern with a positive–negative glacier balance demarcation at 36.5° N, featuring melting at higher latitudes and accumulation at lower latitudes. The results of this study are of significant importance for hydrometeorological applications and hydrological and water resources research in this region.

Integrating material flow analysis into hydrological model for water environment management of large-scale urban-rural mixed catchment

Simultaneous simulation of urban and rural hydrological processes is important for water environment management of mixed land-uses catchments. However, the discharge paths of pollution in the urban drainage system are not described in traditional catchment hydrological models. In this study, an urban-rural water environment (URWE) model is developed through incorporating the material flow analysis (MFA) and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) into a general framework. The URWE model is an advancement with respect to traditional hydrological models in terms of simultaneously simulating the urban organized and rural decentralized discharges of pollution. Due to the low data requirement and high computational efficiency of MFA, URWE model is applicable to large-scale catchment with wide urban area. The URWE model is applied to a typical urban-rural mixed catchment, the Dianchi Catchment (China), where the pollution characteristics are analyzed and the pollution control measures are investigated. Results indicate that the URWE model outperforms the conventional SWAT model for both water quantity and quality simulations, with an 8.5 % improvement in average coefficient of determination (R2) and a 67.4 % improvement in average Nash coefficient (NSE). Rural best management practice, rainwater-sewage separation, and storage capacity expansion are identified as the most cost-effective measures for COD, TN, and TP reduction, respectively. Contributions of this study are to improve the accuracy of water environment simulation in urban-rural mixed catchment, as well as to help decision-makers develop synergistic urban-rural water environment management measures.

Identifying and assessing pond best management practice under future climate scenarios

Climate change can play important roles in the hydrological processes within watershed with ponds as the Best Management Practice (BMP). Unlike several other studies, this study integrated remote sensing technique with hydrological model to identify and simulate pond BMP. Limited studies have been carried out to evaluate pond BMP in relation to the climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality particularly in Mississippi watersheds. The objective of this study was to classify ponds on satellite imagery within the Big Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW) using Google Earth Engine (GEE) and incorporate this data with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to evaluate future hydrological and water quality outputs. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated against streamflow (R2 and NSE values from 0.81 to 0.56) and sediment (R2 and NSE values from 0.91 to 0.40). Future climate data for the mid (2040–2060) and late (2079–2099) centuries were utilized to create climate change scenarios (e.g., RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Results of this study projected that the average annual flow and sediment load will increase by 26–46%, and 107-150% respectively by the late century compared to the baseline period (2002–2021). However, the projected sediment load with modified pond BMP data used in the SWAT model could decrease average annual sediment load by 44–46% under both RCP scenarios. Seasonal data analysis determined that spring, summer, and fall sediment loads were projected to decrease up to 42%, 52%, and 46% respectively under both RCP scenarios due to pond BMP. This study can be useful for the development of climate-smart management strategies in agricultural watersheds.

Applicability of attribution methods for identifying runoff changes in changing environments

Under the dual impacts of global climate change and human activities, how to accurately and quantitatively assess and identify changes in watershed runoff is crucial to the rational development and utilization of water resources. Different methods of identifying runoff change attribution are applicable to different environments. In this study, we used five different methods, including the double mass curve (DMC), the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), and the three Budyko hypotheses based on Fu, Choudhury‒Yang, and Milly‒Zhang formulas to explore the impact of human activities and climate change on runoff change in the Jinghe River basin (JRB). The results show that annual runoff of the JRB decreased considerably, and human activities accounted for more than 90%. Specifically, the results of the SWAT model and the three Budyko hypotheses are highly consistent except for the DMC method, which is not recommended in basins with significant changes in factors other than precipitation. More importantly, the Budyko hypothesis based on the Milly‒Zhang formula uses the vegetation water utilization coefficient to consider the impact of vegetation change on runoff, which is most consistent with the simulation results of the SWAT model and is recommended for the attribution analysis of changes in the Loess Plateau represented by the JRB.

Runoff Dynamics and Soil Erosion Assessment using a SWAT Model at Upper Cauvery River Basin

The increasing availability of geospatial datasets on watershed characteristics and hydro-meteorological variables emphasises the importance of integrated hydrological models for effective catchment management. Climatic and physiographic determinants such as topography, land use, soil properties, and anthropogenic interventions substantially influence a catchment's hydrological equilibrium. The SWAT model was used to elucidate rainfall-runoff dynamics in the Upper Cauvery River Basin, Karnataka, India (36,682 km²), applying the SCS Curve Number (CN) method for runoff estimation. Runoff was estimated for 2012–2021 using rainfall data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), soil data from the FAO, and land use/land cover and slope datasets.Soil erosion, exacerbated by intensified agricultural practices, was evaluated using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The SWAT model results showed that runoff accounted for 15-20% of the total precipitation, with an annual soil loss of 2027.95 tons. The predominance of agricultural land use, covering 66.29% of the basin, significantly contributed to high runoff, whereas the forested areas (26.48%) demonstrated a low runoff potential. About 38% of the basin exhibited a very low soil loss risk, while 11% was classified as high risk and 9% as very high risk. The SWAT model is recognized for its robustness, and this research aims to leverage its capabilities to validate its effectiveness in estimating runoff and erosion, providing crucial insights for advancing sustainable catchment resource management.

Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)-Informed Deep Learning for Streamflow Forecasting with Remote Sensing and In Situ Precipitation and Discharge Observations

In order to anticipate residual errors and improve accuracy while reducing uncertainties, this work integrates the long short-term memory (LSTM) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to create a deep learning (DL) model that is guided by physics. By forecasting the residual errors of the SWAT model, the SWAT-informed LSTM model (LSTM-SWAT) differs from typical LSTM approaches that predict the streamflow directly. Through numerical tests, the performance of the LSTM-SWAT was evaluated with both LSTM-only and SWAT-only models in the Upper Heihe River Basin. The outcomes showed that the LSTM-SWAT performed better than the other models, showing higher accuracy and a lower mean absolute error (MAE = 3.13 m3/s). Sensitivity experiments further showed how the quality of the training dataset affects the performance of the LSTM-SWAT. The results of this study demonstrate how the LSTM-SWAT may improve streamflow prediction greatly by remote sensing and in situ observations. Additionally, this study emphasizes the need for detailed consideration of specific sources of uncertainty to further improve the predictive capabilities of the hybrid model.

Hydrological streamflow modeling at the inlet of Gilgel Gibe III dam of Ethiopia using soil and water assessment tool

AbstractComprehensive approach is a pre‐requisite to improve the estimation of variability in streamflow data for designing water supply systems, generating hydropower, determining environmental flows, allocating water, and conducting pollution studies that need a comprehensive approach. There is a need to model streamflow data to develop effective water policy plans when sufficient data are unavailable. This study aims at assessing the accuracy and applicability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in predicting streamflow at the inlet of the Gilgel Gibe III dam watershed in Ethiopia. Historical meteorological data from nine available stations between 1987 and 2017 were used to predict the streamflow. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for two different time periods (1997–1999 and 2003–2004) using SWATCUP program and SUFI‐2 technique. Calibration and validation were based on monthly observed discharges at the Abelti and Gojeb stations. The results showed acceptable values of R2, Nash–Sutcliffe modeling efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS). At the Abelti station and Gojeb station, the calibration and validation results were 0.82, 0.79, and −10.1%; 0.88, 0.84, and −14.4%; and 0.86, 0.79, and 14.1% for calibration and 0.88, 0.8, and 11.1% for validation, respectively. The prediction uncertainty of 95% was consistent with the observed discharge. The mean annual runoff was 440.08 m3/s, demonstrating the model's effectiveness in simulating streamflow at the dam's inlet. The calibrated and validated model can be used to study the effects of climate and land use changes; analyze water quality and sediment yield; and inform future water policy plans, dam construction planning, and flood disaster risk management.

Mapping of soil erosion risk in Ezeagu Local Government Area of Enugu State, Nigeria

This study centres on mapping soil erosion risk in Ezeagu Local Government Area of Enugu State, Nigeria. A multi-criteria research design was adopted in carrying out this study by using remote sensed images, topographic, soil and rainfall data. K Factor, R Factor, P Factor, K Factor and Digital Elevation Model were generated. SWAT model was used to generate surface runoff and sediment yield and AHP model were used to identify and map levels of soil erosion risk in the study area. Loamy sandy soil with a K Factor value of 0.23 – 0.34 (t h MJ-1 mm-1) and loam soil with a K factor Value of 0.08 – 0.14 (t h MJ-1 mm-1) dominates the study area. The organic matter contents for all the soils were rated low with an average measured organic matter of 0.97 (%). The rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) results showed variations across the study area from 1029.295 to 1343.092, 1343.092 to 1589.713, 1589.713 to 1744.922, 1744.922 to 1965.777, and 1965.777 to 2060.864 MJ mm ha year-1, h-1 year-1. Areas with dense vegetation had lower P-factors indicating better protection against erosion, while areas under cultivation, especially those with poor management practices and without cover crops show higher P-factors. Almost all the area has a moderate (0.5-0.6) C factor which means moderate protection, areas with higher protection (0.6-1) C factor occupied a small portion towards the east while patches of low C factors are found scattered in the north, west northwest, south and eastern part of the study area. The eastern part of the study area are more susceptible to soil erosion with value ranging from 3.2-5.8, 5.9-9.9 and 10.0-19. Slope steepness and slope length is lower in the northern, western and south-west of the study area. Areas with annual soil loss between 0 to 10 grams, 10 to 20 grams and 30 to 40 grams dominates the northern, western and southern parts of the study area. The erosion risk map depicts that very low-risk area coverage of 24.06%, low risk covers 20.29%, moderate risk occupies 17.75% and high risk erosion risk covers 21.30% while very high risk occupies 16.61% of the total area. This study recommends terracing and gabions in areas identified at risk of erosion, promotion and adoption of agronomic soil conservation methods of mulching, cover cropping and planting plants to enhance soil stability and reduce erosion.

Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Non-Point Source Pollution in the Nyabarongo River Catchment, Rwanda

The Nyabarongo river catchment in Rwanda has experienced significant changes in its land use and land cover (LULC) in recent decades, with profound implications for non-point source pollution. However, there are limited studies on non-point pollution caused by nutrient loss associated with land use and land cover changes in the catchment. This study investigates the spatiotemporal impacts of these changes on water quality considering nitrogen and phosphorus within the catchment from 2000 to 2020 and 2030 as a projection. The SWAT model was used in analysis of hydrological simulations, while the CA–Markov model was used for the future projection of LULC in 2030. The results revealed (1) the important changes in LULC in the study area, where a decrease in forestland was observed with a considerable increase in built-up land, grassland, and cropland; (2) that the R2 and NSE of the TN and TP in the runoff simulation in the catchment were all above 0.70, showing good applicability during calibration and validation periods; (3) that from 2000 to 2020 and looking to the projection in 2030, the simulated monthly average TN and TP levels have progressively increased from 15.36 to 145.71 kg/ha, 2.46 to 15.47 kg/ha, 67.2 to 158.8 kg/ha, and 9.3 to 17.43 kg/ha, respectively; and (4) that the most polluted land use types are agriculture and urban areas, due to increases in human activities as a consequence of population growth in the catchment. Understanding the patterns and drivers of these changes is critical for developing effective policies and practices for sustainable land management and protection of water resources.

Application of SWAT to assess peatland forestry impacts on water quality

ABSTRACT Peatland drainage can affect the natural state of hydrological conditions and nutrient loading but is rarely included in catchment-scale models. To understand the gap, we aimed to use the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to observe drained peatlands and their properties to predict nutrients and suspended solids (SS) in the peatland-dominated Simojoki catchment. We integrated drainage networks in SWAT to (i) identify the parameters for the drainage; (ii) determine annual loads and mean concentrations of SS, organic phosphorus (Org-P), total phosphorus (TP), organic nitrogen (Org-N), and total nitrogen (TN); (iii) understand spatial variation of nutrients and SS; and (iv) investigate the uncertainty ranges for the estimates. The calibrated SWAT model showed a 9.6% PBIAS between the simulated flow and the observations with low to medium loading variations for the water quality parameters. For Org-N and TN, the highest loading per year was at the downstream outlet, whereas for SS, Org-P, and TP, it was higher at the upstream outlet of the catchment. This approach of representing the drained peatland in SWAT indicated a maximum spatial distributed load in the peat soil in the clear-cut area and it can be beneficial in future hydrological modelling efforts in identifying the status of nutrients or SS.

Advancing SWAT Model Calibration: A U-NSGA-III-Based Framework for Multi-Objective Optimization

In recent years, remote sensing data have revealed considerable potential in unraveling crucial information regarding water balance dynamics due to their unique spatiotemporal distribution characteristics, thereby advancing multi-objective optimization algorithms in hydrological model parameter calibration. However, existing optimization frameworks based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) primarily focus on single-objective or multiple-objective (i.e., two or three objective functions), lacking an open, efficient, and flexible framework to integrate many-objective (i.e., four or more objective functions) optimization algorithms to satisfy the growing demands of complex hydrological systems. This study addresses this gap by designing and implementing a multi-objective optimization framework, Py-SWAT-U-NSGA-III, which integrates the Unified Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm III (U-NSGA-III). Built on the SWAT model, this framework supports a broad range of optimization problems, from single- to many-objective. Developed within a Python environment, the SWAT model modules are integrated with the Pymoo library to construct a U-NSGA-III algorithm-based optimization framework. This framework accommodates various calibration schemes, including multi-site, multi-variable, and multi-objective functions. Additionally, it incorporates sensitivity analysis and post-processing modules to shed insights into model behavior and evaluate optimization results. The framework supports multi-core parallel processing to enhance efficiency. The framework was tested in the Meijiang River Basin in southern China, using daily streamflow data and Penman–Monteith–Leuning Version 2 (PML-V2(China)) remote sensing evapotranspiration (ET) data for sensitivity analysis and parallel efficiency evaluation. Three case studies demonstrated its effectiveness in optimizing complex hydrological models, with multi-core processing achieving a speedup of up to 8.95 despite I/O bottlenecks. Py-SWAT-U-NSGA-III provides an open, efficient, and flexible tool for the hydrological community that strives to facilitate the application and advancement of multi-objective optimization in hydrological modeling.

Integrated Modeling Approach to Assess Freshwater Inflow Impact on Coastal Water Quality

The quality of freshwater input from tributaries of the Western Mississippi Sound (WMSS) impacts the quality of coastal water. Hydrological and hydrodynamic models can be coupled to assess the impact of freshwater inflow from coastal watersheds. This study aims to compare the performance of a hydrodynamic model and a hydrological–hydrodynamic coupled model in detecting the effect of freshwater inflow from the coastal watersheds of the state of Mississippi into the WMSS. A hydrological model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and a hydrodynamic model, the visual Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (vEFDC), were coupled to evaluate the difference between the hydrodynamical modelling approach, which employs an area-weighted approach to define flow and nutrient concentrations, and the more recent coupling model approach, which uses a hydrological model to determine the flow and nutrient load of the model. Furthermore, a nutrient load sensitivity analysis of the effect of freshwater inflow on water quality in the WMSS was conducted in addition to assessing the repercussions of tropical depressions. Hydrological assessments of the major tributaries watersheds of Saint Louis Bay (SLB) at the WMSS were performed using the SWAT model. After calibration/validation of the SWAT model, the streamflow output from the SWAT was incorporated into the vEFDC model. Finally, hydrodynamic simulation of the SWAT-vEFDC model was conducted, and water quality output was compared at different SLB locations. The salinity, dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) were assessed by comparing the vEFDC and SWAT-vEFDC outputs. The results indicated that hydrological input from the SWAT alters the flow and nutrient concentration results as compared to an area-weighted approach. In addition, a major impact on the concentration of TN and TP occurred at the location where the freshwater flows into SLB. This impact diminishes further away from the point of freshwater inflow. Moreover, a 25% nutrient load variation did not demonstrate a difference in water quality at the WMSS besides TN and TP in a post-tropical depression scenario. Therefore, the SWAT-vEFDC coupled approach provided insights into evaluation of the area-weighted method, and of hydrological model output to the hydrodynamical model, the effect of freshwater inflow into coastal waters, and nutrient sensitivity analysis, which are important for integrated coastal ecosystems management.

Projection of land use and land cover changes based on land change modeler and integrating both land use land cover and climate change on the hydrological response of Big Creek Lake Watershed, South Alabama

Changing land use/land cover (LULC) and climate substantially affect the hydrological components of a watershed. This study explored the future impact of the hydrological responses due to the changing LULC and climate on the Big Creek Lake watershed in Alabama, USA, from 2021 to 2050 using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Five climate model datasets were used under the moderate scenario (Representative Concentrative Pathways 4.5) and the extreme scenario (Representative Concentrative Pathways 8.5), and the datasets were downscaled and bias-corrected. In addition, changing the LULC of five categories was predicted by Cellular Automata Markov (CA- Markov). With these data combined with the elevation (Digital Elevation Model), soils, and weather data, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated for the studied watershed to quantify how climate change will affect streamflow, nitrogen, and phosphorus. Our results indicate streamflow will increase due to the 50-acre increase in urban LULC. As streamflow increases, the percolation, surface runoff, lateral flow, groundwater flow, and water yield will also increase because the streamflow impacts these hydrological components. Moreover, the increase rate in streamflow is the same for all the components for January, February, and March. Therefore, there is a strong correlation between these months. On the contrary, evaporation will be high in May, June, and July because of the increasing temperature and streamflow. However, the changes in the water hydrological parameters and total nitrogen and phosphorus will be more intense in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5.

Combining SWAT with Machine Learning to Identify Primary Controlling Factors and Their Impacts on Non-Point Source Pollution

Non-point source (NPS) pollution has a complex formation mechanism, and identifying its primary controlling factors is crucial for effective pollution treatment. In this study, the Baixi Reservoir Watershed, characterized by low-intensity development, was selected as the study area. A new methodology combining the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with the Random Forest (RF) algorithm was proposed to comprehensively identify the primary controlling factors of NPS pollution and analyze the interaction between factors. The results of the validated SWAT model showed that the annual intensity of total nitrogen (TN) load range was 0.677–11.014 kg ha−1 yr−1, and the total phosphorus (TP) load per unit area range was 0.020–0.110 kg ha−1 yr−1. Loads of sediment, TP, and TN exhibited significant seasonal variations, particularly in the Baixi basin, where sediment yield had the highest absolute change rate, with a value of up to 232.26. Random Forest models for TN and TP displayed high accuracy (R2 > 0.99) and robust generalization ability. Fertilization, sediment yield, and terrain slope were identified through RF models as the primary factors affecting TN and TP. By graphing partial dependency plots (PDPs) based on the results of the RF models to analyze the interaction between factors, the findings suggest a strong synergistic effect of two combined factors: fertilization and sediment yield. When fertilizer application exceeds 15 kg ha−1 yr−1 and sediment yield exceeds 3 kg ha−1 yr−1, there is a sharp increase in nitrogen and phosphorus load. Through the identification and analysis of the primary controlling factors of NPS pollution, this study provides a solid scientific foundation for developing effective watershed management strategies.

Hydrologic Responses to Climate Change and Implications for Reservoirs in the Source Region of the Yangtze River

ABSTRACTUnderstanding the hydrological impacts of climate change is essential for robust and sustainable water management. This study assessed the hydrologic conditions under changing climate in the Jinshajiang River basin, the source region of the Yangtze River, using the hydrological model SWAT with the historical observations and the future climate simulations under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5). For the historical period, with an increasing trend of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and snowmelt, streamflow increases in upstream region but keeps decreasing in the downstream catchment. For future scenarios, a warmer and wetter climate is projected for the basin throughout the 21st century, leading to an overall increase in mean and extreme streamflow. The streamflow magnitude increases more significantly in the far future than in the near future, and more significant under SSP5‐8.5 than SSP2‐4.5. The projected remarkable increase in precipitation causes the transition in changing trend of streamflow compared with the historical period. The projected warming leads to a continuing decline in snowfall and snow water equivalent, followed by an earlier snowmelt and higher peak streamflow, especially at the upstream catchment. Ultimately, reservoirs in the basin are expected to gain more inflows, however, with greater variability including higher likelihoods of flood and drought events, which impose potential challenges on reservoir operations. These outcomes indicate the importance of adaptive water resources management in the melting water contributed basin to sustain and enhance its services under global warming.

Hydrological Modeling to Unravel the Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity and Attribution of Baseflow in the Yangtze River Source Area, China

Revealing the spatiotemporal variation in baseflow and its underlying mechanisms is critical for preserving the health and ecological functions of alpine rivers, but this has rarely been conducted in the source region of the Yangtze River (SRYR). Our study employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model coupled with two-parameter digital filtering and geostatistical approaches to obtain a visual representation of the spatiotemporal heterogeneity characteristics of the baseflow and baseflow index (BFI) in the SRYR. The SWAT model and multiple linear regression model (MLR) were used to quantitatively estimate the contribution of climate change and human activities to baseflow and BFI changes. The results underscore the robust applicability of the SWAT model within the SRYR. Temporally, the precipitation, temperature, and baseflow exhibited significant upward trends, and the baseflow and BFI showed contrasting intra-annual distribution patterns, which were unimodal and bimodal distribution, respectively. Spatially, the baseflow increased from northwest to southeast, and from the watershed perspective, the Tongtian River exhibited higher baseflow values compared to other regions of the SRYR. The baseflow and BFI values of the Dangqu River were greater than those of other tributaries. More than 50% of the entire basin had an annual BFI value greater than 0.7, which indicates that baseflow was the major contributor to runoff generation. Moreover, the contributions of climate change and human activities to baseflow variability were 122% and −22%, and to BFI variability, 60% and 40%. Specifically, precipitation contributed 116% and 60% to the baseflow and BFI variations, while the temperature exhibited contributions of 6% and 8%, respectively. Overall, it was concluded that the spatiotemporal distributions of baseflow and the BFI are controlled by various factors, and climate change is the main factor of baseflow variation. Our study offers valuable insights for the management and quantitative assessment of groundwater resources within the SRYR amidst climate change.

Assessment of surface irrigation potential and crop water demand in Daramalo Wereda, southern Ethiopia

AbstractAssessing available water and land resources as well as their potential for surface irrigation use is vital for sustainable agricultural development and planning. Agricultural irrigation also plays a crucial role in ensuring food security and reducing poverty in Ethiopia. However, it is dominated by rain‐fed agriculture, with rainfall distribution and intensity vary spatially and temporally. Enhancing agricultural water management and irrigation has the potential to increase agricultural productivity. The objective of the study was to evaluate surface water potential and the irrigation water demand of Zage River sub‐watershed, which were estimated using hydrological model of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and CROPWAT8.0 software, respectively. Slope, soil type, drainage densities, land use/cover, and river proximity were the factors utilized to determine irrigation land suitability. A weighted overlay was completed, with 17.32% of irrigable lands found to be highly suitable, 41.29% moderately suitable, 37.61% marginally suitable, and 3.78% not suitable. The SWAT model result gave very good model performance indicator values of NE = 0.773 and R2 = 0.872 for calibration and NE = 0.771 & R2 = 0.945 for validation. The SWAT model result showed a total of 33.248 million m3 of surface runoff generated annually. Compared with irrigation water demand of 21.068 million m3, this suggests the watershed has high surface water potential for surface irrigation for selected crop types of the watershed. The findings of this research are relevant to improving local water management policies and practices and enable stakeholders to make decisions that enhance agricultural productivity and sustainable agricultural practices and help ensure the food security of local farmers.