Sustainable Materials Management Research Articles

Implementing the Circular Economy in the European Union and Spain: Links to the Low-Carbon Transition

This paper reviews and analyzes the process of the implementation of the circular economy in the European Union (EU) and Spain, and its links to the low-carbon transition. The EU implementation of the circular economy went through several stages. Since the adoption of the first action plan in 1993, the links between the circular economy and carbon transition goals have become intertwined. Recently, the EU approved the framework of new monitoring measures and indicators for the circular economy. The adopted actions have involved the adaptation of European legislation at the national level. Spain has participated in this process since 2017, when the Circular Economy Pact was signed. The subsequent approval of the Spanish Strategy for a Circular Economy in 2020 was developed, considering a close relationship between decarbonization and the circular economy. Lately, the circular economy implementation has been strengthened with the strategic project for economic recovery and transformation, linked to the recovery of COVID-19, and the roadmap for the sustainable management of mineral raw materials, with both documents including actions directly related to transforming the energy system. Data show that Spain has made significant improvements in the circular economy transition. However, Spain’s vulnerability to externalities is greater than that of the EU as a whole.

Innovative Timber Upcycling: Digital Strategies for Prolonging Timber Lifespan and Promoting Reuse.

Abstract This paper explores the intersection of digital and ecological transitions, crucial for achieving the European Green Deal’s sustainability targets. The construction sector, traditionally reliant on a linear “take-make-dispose” model, is gradually integrating timber, favored for its lower environmental impact compared to steel and concrete. Our research enhances the reuse of timber from demolition sites, leveraging digital technologies to extend the lifespan of timber elements and improve its carbon sequestration capabilities. This research is part of a broader initiative, the DeDa research, at the School of Architecture and Design, University of Camerino, focusing on sustainable material management in post-disaster areas. These areas, seen as ‘material banks,’ pose unique challenges due to the abundance of materials that are difficult to manage. The research comprises three integrated phases: establishing a digital material bank of timber elements, design optimization with available elements and their automated assembly. This system is underpinned by an ecosystem of digital technologies, including photogrammetric surveying, computational design, and robotic manufacturing. Considering the currently low technological level of conventional building processes, this work maintains a highly experimental character. However, presenting this research provides an opportunity to explore how digital technologies might promote circular-based building processes and encourage a shift in perspective and practices within the building industry.

Synergistic ternary deep eutectic solvents: An archetype for sustainable and eco-conscious Li and Co recovery from spent batteries

The development of sustainable materials for energy is a critical challenge in the pursuit of a circular economy. This study presents an innovative approach for recycling lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) using a novel, sustainable deep eutectic solvent (DES) composed of glycine, ascorbic acid, and water. This natural, chloride-free ternary DES leverages the biocompatible and eco-friendly properties of its constituents, achieving exceptional leaching efficiency of 99.1 % for lithium and 97.9 % for cobalt under optimized conditions. A multifaceted methodology integrating advanced factorial design, kinetic modeling, and machine learning was employed to refine the process parameters and enhance leaching efficiency. The extraction kinetics were predominantly governed by endothermic surface reactions, characterized by activation energies of 81.5 kJ/mol for Co and 110.9 kJ/mol for Li. An ensemble neural network model accurately predicted the extraction with an R2 > 0.95, demonstrating the robustness of the computational approach. The DES exhibited excellent recyclability over five cycles, thereby emphasizing its potential for practical industrial applications in the field of sustainable materials management. This approach facilitated the selective recovery of high-purity lithium oxalate and cobalt oxalate, underscoring the efficiency and environmental benefits of the process. DFT calculations provided insights into the extraction mechanism, revealing the crucial role of hydrogen bonding and synergistic effects of the DES components. This pioneering study not only advances LIB recycling but also establishes a comprehensive, quantitatively validated framework, paving the way for future innovations in sustainable materials management and supporting global efforts towards a circular economy in energy storage.

Leaching of Neodymium From Hard Disk Drive Magnet Waste Using Citric Acid‐ Design of Experiments and Optimization

AbstractNeodymium magnet waste recycling and precious metal recovery have drawn a lot of researchers’ attention because of their vital role in contemporary technology. In this work, the potential of citric acid for the leaching of neodymium from hard disk drive waste magnets has been examined using statistical approaches like full factorial design(FFD) and central composite design (CCD).The variables have been screened and conditions are optimized to obtain higher leaching. The polynomial quadratic Model proves effective to predict optimized conditions for neodymium leaching. Leachant concentration and temperature were screened as the most effective factors. Optimization conditions for the leaching process were achieved through central composite design, revealing that 2 mol/L citric acid and a temperature of 333 K provide the ideal conditions for the complete dissolution of neodymium. This extensive study contributes to sustainable materials management and resource conservation by illuminating the effective recovery of important metals from neodymium magnets.

Nature-Based Secondary Resource Recovery under Climate Change Uncertainty: A Robust Multi-Objective Optimisation Methodology

The management of high-volume (HV) waste poses a persistent challenge in sustainable materials management and represents an untapped opportunity in circular economy models. This study proposes a conceptual decision-making framework to operationalise a novel circular economy strategy for HV waste, involving temporary storage to facilitate nature-based secondary resource recovery. Using an illustrative case study of a candidate HV waste (legacy mining waste), we apply a robust multi-objective spatial optimisation approach at a national scale, employing an exact solution approach. Our methodology integrates mixed-integer linear programming to evaluate the economic viability, social benefits, and impacts of climate change uncertainties on nature-based solutions (NbS) implementation across diverse scenarios. The results demonstrate that NbS can enhance economic feasibility by incorporating carbon sequestration and employment benefits while demonstrating resilience against climate change projections to ensure long-term sustainability. The findings suggest that although NbS can improve the circular economy of HV nationally, it is essential to assess additional ecosystem services and address multiple uncertainties for effective macro-level sustainability assessment of HV management. This study offers a robust decision-making framework for policymakers and stakeholders to plan and implement nature-based circular economy strategies for HV waste streams at a national level while effectively managing long-term planning uncertainties.

Uncovering Availability of the Secondary Iron Resources in China: Integrating Material Flow Analysis and Secondary Resources Reserve Assessment.

As the largest iron and steel producer, China still cannot meet its demand of iron and steel only through domestic primary supply in the last few decades. Hence, secondary iron resources are increasingly significant in meeting China's iron supply and demand balance. However, the secondary iron resource availability in China and how it impacts the future supply demand balance were still insufficiently discussed. In this work, we developed a material flow analysis and secondary resources reserve assessment (MFA-SRRA) integrated model, assessed secondary iron resources availability, and conducted a supply demand analysis through nine scenarios for irons in China. The results showed that China's secondary iron reserves will increase from 8.9 Gt in 2021 to 14.04 to 19.01 Gt in 2050. With the increasing secondary iron supply, more than 60% of iron ore as a source of steelmaking can be replaced by 2050. Landfills, as a significant reserve of iron but always ignored, will accumulate 1.42-1.51 Gt secondary iron resources by 2050 and should be noticed to be mined and utilized in the future. Last, we suggest that promoting innovation in landfill mining technology and making sustainable material management policies are urgent to prevent these secondary iron resources from becoming real waste.

Impact of biodegradable plastics on U.S. environmental conservation: A comprehensive review, exploring the effectiveness, challenges, and broader implications of bioplastics in waste management and eco-preservation

This study provides a comprehensive review of the emergence of biodegradable plastics as a paradigm shift in materials science, aiming to assess their development, implementation, and impact on environmental conservation and sustainable development. Employing a systematic literature review and content analysis methodology, the research scrutinizes academic databases and industry reports to explore the technological innovations, environmental benefits, and challenges associated with biodegradable plastics. The inclusion and exclusion criteria ensure a focused examination of peer-reviewed articles, highlighting advancements in biopolymer formulations, regulatory frameworks, and stakeholder perspectives. Key findings reveal that biodegradable plastics offer significant potential for reducing plastic pollution and mitigating climate change impacts due to their renewable origins and compostability. However, challenges such as technical limitations, higher production costs, and the need for specialized waste management infrastructure hinder their widespread adoption. The study underscores the importance of developing standardized biodegradation protocols, investing in research and development, enhancing waste management systems, and educating stakeholders to overcome these barriers. Conclusively, biodegradable plastics represent a promising avenue towards sustainable materials management, provided that concerted efforts are made to address the existing challenges. Strategic recommendations include fostering public-private partnerships, improving material properties, and implementing supportive policies to enhance the role of bioplastics in environmental preservation. Future research should focus on innovating bioplastic technologies and exploring effective strategies for their integration into the circular economy. Keywords: Biodegradable Plastics, Environmental Conservation, Sustainable Development, Waste Management.

Facile synthesis of eco-friendly alginate-chitosan bio-adsorbent for critical raw materials adsorption: A comprehensive study

Sustainable management of critical raw materials is of paramount importance to ensure a steady supply and reduce environmental impact. The application of newly synthesized and environmentally friendly ALG@CS material as a bio-adsorbent for the effective rare earth elements removal from aqueous solution has been presented. The synthesized material underwent FTIR, XPS, EDX, and SEM analysis to determine its suitability for metal uptake. To evaluate the adsorption capacity of ALG@CS for rare earth elements several factors were taken into consideration. These factors included alginate:chitosan ratios, bead size, pH level, composite mass, interaction time, metal ion concentration, and temperature, being all varied during the batch mode evaluation process. Under the optimal conditions, the maximum adsorption capacities were found to be 145.90 mg La(III)/g, 168.44 mg Ce(III)/g, 132.51 mg Pr(III)/g, 128.40 mg Nd(III)/g, 154.36 mg Sm(III)/g, and 165.10 mg Ho(III)/g. The equilibrium data fits well with non-linear three-parameter Sips and Redlich-Peterson isotherm models. The PSO model finds the highest process suitability. The synthesized ALG@CS bio-adsorbent showed excellent regenerative capacity in ten cycles, making it a suitable adsorbent for rare earth elements uptake. The unique bio-adsorbents combination allows for efficient critical raw materials adsorption providing a promising solution for their recovery and recycling.

Novel cesium immobilization by alkali activation and cold consolidation of waste pharmaceutical glass

A new method of cesium immobilization has been successfully developed by combining alkali activation of boro-alumino-silicate glass and viscous flow sintering. Powdered glass from discarded pharmaceutical vials, suspended in a 2.5 M CsOH aqueous solution, underwent surface hydration as well as partial dissolution. Condensation reactions occurring at hydrated surface layers upon drying at 40 °C over 7 days resulted in welding of adjacent particles, forming a network that trapped newly formed gel and crystal phases. The newly formed phases including crystalline boro-pollucite (CsBSi2O6), were derived mostly from Cs+ ions reacting with the products of glass dissolution and exhibited a high chemical stability. Further stabilization was achieved through viscous flow sintering at 700 °C, resulting in the incorporation of Cs+ ions in a glass matrix. The effectiveness of the immobilization was confirmed by leaching test using the Materials Characterization Center-1 Standard (MCC-1). This innovative approach not only enhances the chemical stability of cesium waste forms, but also aligns with principles of cleaner production by repurposing pharmaceutical glass waste, promoting sustainable materials management.

Self-nucleation (SN) and successive self-nucleation and annealing (SSA) as powerful tools to determine the composition of polyolefin post-consumer recycled blends

For the incorporation of post-consumer recycled (PCR) resins in mechanical recycling processes, it is crucial to determine their composition accurately. The blends of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) in PCR film resins pose a challenge due to their varying ratios. This study introduces a quantitative method that employs the successive self-nucleation and annealing (SSA) technique to analyze commercial PCR LLDPE/LDPE blend compositions. Our method is an efficient way to assess these blend compositions, offering an improved analysis compared with traditional methods. We established a series of calibration curves based on the SSA final melting trace to validate our approach. The SSA technique's efficacy was compared with the robust NMR method, showing that SSA can predict LLDPE contents in the blends with comparable accuracy. We demonstrate that the SSA methodology is an accurate and reliable technique for assessing complex waste streams, thereby facilitating the optimization of recycling processes and advancing the goals of sustainable materials management.

Mechanical Recycling of Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Polymer in a Circular Economy.

This review thoroughly investigates the mechanical recycling of carbon fiber-reinforced polymer composites (CFRPCs), a critical area for sustainable material management. With CFRPC widely used in high-performance areas like aerospace, transportation, and energy, developing effective recycling methods is essential for tackling environmental and economic issues. Mechanical recycling stands out for its low energy consumption and minimal environmental impact. This paper reviews current mechanical recycling techniques, highlighting their benefits in terms of energy efficiency and material recovery, but also points out their challenges, such as the degradation of mechanical properties due to fiber damage and difficulties in achieving strong interfacial adhesion in recycled composites. A novel part of this review is the use of finite element analysis (FEA) to predict the behavior of recycled CFRPCs, showing the potential of recycled fibers to preserve structural integrity and performance. This review also emphasizes the need for more research to develop standardized mechanical recycling protocols for CFRPCs that enhance material properties, optimize recycling processes, and assess environmental impacts thoroughly. By combining experimental and numerical studies, this review identifies knowledge gaps and suggests future research directions. It aims to advance the development of sustainable, efficient, and economically viable CFRPC recycling methods. The insights from this review could significantly benefit the circular economy by reducing waste and enabling the reuse of valuable carbon fibers in new composite materials.

Sustainable utilization of incineration bottom ash in pavement construction: Environmental impacts and life cycle assessment

The global drive towards sustainable development has prompted a notable shift in civil engineering practices towards utilizing secondary materials, such as incineration bottom ash (IBA). The literature review underscores the relevance of waste incineration and the crucial need for effective IBA management strategies. Existing studies, however, reveal a dearth of studies within the life cycle assessment (LCA) framework focusing on understanding IBA characteristics and field conditions. The study addresses this gap by proposing an LCA to assess the environmental implications of substituting natural aggregates with IBA in pavement layers. A comparative LCA was carried out, where different scenarios of reuse of IBA (as produced, treated, or with restrictions) were assessed against a baseline scenario that represents the conventional use of aggregates in roads and landfilling of IBA. The ReCiPe technique, incorporating a hierarchist perspective, was employed to assess impacts across different problem-oriented categories. Additionally, this study also explores the impact of data variability on LCA outcomes, considering changes in landfill height, pavement infiltration rate, time duration, and IBA transportation distance. The analysis indicates that incorporating IBA in road layers can significantly reduce impacts on non-toxic categories like global warming by over 35 %. However, the leaching properties of untreated IBA contribute to a more than 28 % increase in human carcinogenic toxicity, rendering it environmentally unsuitable for road layer reuse. The comparative study illustrated that reusing treated IBA is the most sustainable approach, remaining effective up to a distance of d + 15 km. In cases where treatment is not feasible, utilizing IBA with restrictions is recommended up to a distance of d + 5 km (d represents the transportation distance for natural materials). This research fills a critical gap in the literature by providing a framework to assess IBA reuse in road construction, thereby advancing the discourse on sustainable materials management in the construction industry.

Waste Prediction Approach Using Hybrid Long Short-Term Memory with Support Vector Machine

As climate change increases the risk of extreme rainfall events, concerns over flood management have also increased. To recover quickly from flood damage and prevent further consequential damage, flood waste prediction is of utmost importance. Therefore, developing a rapid and accurate prediction of flood waste generation is important in order to reduce disaster. Several approaches of flood waste classification have been proposed by various researchers, however only a few focus on prediction of flood waste. In this study, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach is adapted to address these challenges. Two different raw datasets were obtained from the “Advancing Sustainable Materials Management: Facts and Figures 2015” source. The datasets were for 9 years (1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015), and are labelled as the materials generated in the Municipal Waste Stream from 1960 to 2015 and the materials Recycled and Composted in Municipal Solid Waste from 1960 to 2015. The waste types were grouped as paper and paperboard (PP), glass (GI), metals (Mt), plastics (PI), rubber and leather (RL), textiles (Tt), wood (Wd), food (Fd), yard trimmings (YT) and miscellaneous inorganic wastes (IW).

Transformational green sustainable concepts in the field of infrastructure

In this comprehensive study, we explore the multifaceted world of green sustainable construction, highlighting innovative techniques and materials. This article presents an insightful exploration of green sustainable construction, focusing on the crucial aspects of architectural design, judicious material selection, and the adoption of optimal structural designs. Through comprehensive literature research supplemented by practical examples, it highlights several innovative construction methodologies that are at the forefront of green sustainable development. These include the use of lightweight framing, cladding systems, autoclaved aerated concrete (AAC), rammed earth, and straw bale construction, each contributing uniquely to environmental sustainability. The study brings to light the looming issue of raw material scarcity due to excessive exploitation, urging for sustainable material management in construction. It stresses the urgency of implementing effective pollution control measures within the construction sector, asserting that such practices are not just beneficial but essential for environmental conservation and sustainable development. This research contributes significantly to the field by providing a foundation for future exploration and advancements in sustainable construction practices.

A novel approach to enhance the mechanical behavior of glass epoxy laminates with sustainable recycled milled fillers

AbstractThe aerospace, automotive, and energy industries can use fiber‐reinforced composites due to their high specific strength and stiffness. However, unexpected external impacts in work cause internal damage and residual strength loss in composite structures. Another ongoing issue is the sustainable management of composite materials' end‐of‐life. The quasi‐static indentation properties of glass epoxy composites are investigated in this study using different kinds of novel filler materials that are recycled from old composite materials: recycled milled carbon (rmCF), recycled milled Kevlar filler (rmKF), and an innovative hybrid filler (rmBF) composed of recycled milled carbon and Kevlar fillers (rmBF). Surface roughness and hardness studies assessed the quasi‐static indentation (QSI) response of neat glass epoxy and glass epoxy composites loaded with fillers using indentation force, absorbed energy, residual dent depth, and evolution of damage area. Compared to the baseline samples, the rmCF composites performed exceptionally well, showing a 16% increase in peak force, a 59% decrease in damaged area, and a 6.32% and 22.5% reduction in surface roughness, respectively (Ra and Sa). After QSI tests, rmC filler samples had 26.8% higher residual flexural strength than neat glass epoxy composites in a three‐point bending test. Through toughening mechanisms like filler interlocking and bridging, micrographs captured using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) showed that recycled fillers provide a higher level of stiffness, better energy dissipation, less damaged area, and overall improved hardness.Highlights Recycled milled carbon (rmCF) and Kevlar hybrid fillers (rmKF) have been integrated into glass/epoxy composites. The damage tolerance of glass epoxy composites was as a whole significantly improved by the rmCF integration. The Kevlar fillers' inadequate adhesion and interlaminar shear strength were compensated for by the Hybrid fillers (rmBF). Micrographs taken with a scanning electron microscope (SEM) clearly show the fillers' role in the resistance to damage propagation processes.

Influence of suspended cenospheres on the mechanical characteristics and wear loss of natural fiber-reinforced hybrid composites: implications for biomedical applications and sustainable material management.

The need for non-conventional natural fibres for synthesis of hybrid composites has gained momentum in the recent past. Taking into consideration this need, in the current study, hybrid composites were fabricated by reinforcing wood apple shell powder and coconut shell powder, in the resin with varying amounts of cenospheres (up to 20 wt% in increments of 5 wt%) to evaluate their mechanical and tribological properties. The densities of these composites were directly correlated with the quantity of additives utilized. Enhanced tensile and flexural properties were noted in composites containing 10 wt% cenospheres, along with 15 wt% wood apple shell powder and coconut shell powder, compared to other formulations. Dry sliding wear tests were performed at room temperature using a pin-on-disc apparatus, considering loading factors, travel distance, and speed. A hybrid composite consisting of 10 wt% cenospheres, subjected to a normal load of 10 N (1.02 kgf), and tested at a sliding speed of 1.5 m s-1 (90 m min-1) over a distance of 500 m, exhibited superior wear resistance compared to all other composite variations.

Exploring the Opportunities for Sustainable Management of Critical Raw Materials in the Circular Economy

Critical raw materials are essential for various industries due to their importance, significance, and various applications. They are classified into various types, such as rare earth elements and strategic minerals, and have key characteristics such as scarcity, high economic importance, and geopolitical implications. Factors influencing the availability of critical raw materials include geological factors, environmental challenges, regulations, trade, and geopolitical factors. Global demand and supply of critical raw materials are also analyzed, with a focus on recycling and sustainable practices. Potential risks and challenges associated with critical raw materials include environmental and social impacts, dependence on these raw materials, and dependence on foreign countries. Understanding these factors is crucial for ensuring the continued success of critical metals in various industries. The research paper discusses the importance of critical metals in the circular economy, their definition, and the research's objectives. It also discusses the circular economy concept and its relevance to resource management, identifying critical metals and their specific roles, and discussing challenges and opportunities related to their use. The article focuses on the potential for critical raw material management within the circular economy. The study's goal is to investigate and analyse the various tactics and methodologies that can be used to successfully utilise, recycle, and reintroduce key metals into the economy. The circular economy is viewed as a method of improving sustainable resource management by closing the material flow and encouraging renewability and recycling. The circular economy is currently understudied in the context of critical metals - a set of raw materials that are vital for modern technology but are limited in supply and cause significant environmental damage.

Key Drivers for BIM-Enabled Materials Management: Insights for a Sustainable Environment

The value of Building Information Modelling (BIM) is widely discussed within all construction stages including the data-driven culture across building processes and sustainable impact in the long term. Yet, there is a need to explore the opportunities of BIM in improving construction materials management (CMM) as a core function of supply chain management. Due to the dearth of studies on BIM potential in improving CMM within the sustainability context, the authors examine the effectiveness and efficiency of BIM-enabled materials management, via three data streams: a literature review, an online survey, and interviews with subject matter experts in the field. This study aims to explore the drivers of BIM-enabled sustainable construction materials management. This is the preliminary study designed to test the initial hypotheses based on an online questionnaire application to derive tacit knowledge from industry and academic experts, followed by short interviews with respondents. Grounded in the comprehensive literature review, 24 indicators were defined for survey purposes. Preliminarily, 206 experts from 10 countries responded to the survey. The results show significant differences in the ranking of the indicators among the five factors. In developing countries, among two groups, industry sample awareness scales demonstrated lower understanding than among academic experts. Another finding relates to the significant agreement in scaling the importance of opportunities among industrial and academic sector experts. The research adds knowledge to deepen the understanding of opportunities of BIM-enabled materials management as a part of building project sustainable performance for industry policy and decision-makers. It also brings attention to the lack of sustainability awareness amongst industry experts in developing countries. Although materials constitute a solid part of any construction project cost, there is still a collaboration gap among designers, materials management, and, more broadly, supply chain management experts.

Environmentally sustainable mining in quarries to reduce waste production and loss of resources using the developed optimization algorithm

The study of natural resources in the earth sciences focuses on the sustainable management of valuable materials like dimension stones. the quarrying of dimension stones is associated with environmental challenges such as significant amounts of waste production, and resource loss, mainly caused by discontinuities and fractures in the rock mass. Quarry optimization requires an optimal cutting pattern to increase the production of larger blocks while minimizing parameters that affect operational costs such as energy consumption. The algorithms used in the quarrying only focus on the number of blocks extracted, ignoring other factors such as energy consumption in the cutting of blocks. To address this issue, a new algorithm was developed in this study. The algorithm aims to optimize the quarrying process by analyzing the impact of discontinuities on waste production and cutting surfaces. It then provides an optimal cutting pattern for the quarry face based on the optimal value of these parameters. As a result, the use of this algorithm can serve as an efficient and valuable tool in dimension stone quarries. By implementing this algorithm, production costs, energy, and water consumption, cutting tools consumption, and waste production can be significantly reduced, leading to increased quarry profitability and decreased environmental problems.

Material availability assessment using system dynamics: The case of tellurium

AbstractWith the increased deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV), the cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV market is expected to grow substantially. CdTe PV production is crucial for the clean energy transition but problematic because of the material availability challenges. CdTe PV relies on tellurium, a scarce metal mainly produced as a byproduct of copper. Several studies investigated the availability of tellurium for CdTe PV. However, previous models are static and do not reflect the interconnection between tellurium supply, demand, and price. Despite the efforts, previous studies have inconsistent results and do not provide a clear understanding on the availability of tellurium for CdTe PV applications. This study uses system dynamics modeling to assess tellurium availability between 2023 and 2050. The model considers different scenarios for CdTe PV demand growth and PV material intensity reduction. The model also considers tellurium supply variables such as Te‐rich ores, tellurium yield from anode slimes, and growth in copper mining. The historical data (2000–2020) analysis shows a negative correlation between the tellurium price and the annual tellurium surplus. All the considered demand scenarios exhibit a tellurium supply gap where annual material production falls below demand. Tellurium availability and price could delay the growth of CdTe PV production, and maintaining the current CdTe PV market share of ~4% will be challenging. The low‐demand scenario, which is based on a constant CdTe PV market share, results in a supply gap starting in 2029 and a supply gap peak of 508 metric tons in 2036. Our work shows that having more manufacturing capacity is insufficient if tellurium is unavailable. More importantly, this work shows that fast growth in CdTe PV production can diminish the advantages of dematerialization. The estimated cumulative CdTe PV production by 2050 ranges between 929 and 2250 GWp. The findings also suggest that recycling retired solar panels can contribute to 17% of the total tellurium demand and 34% of the CdTe PV tellurium demand. Sensitivity analysis shows that expanding existing Te‐rich ores does not alleviate tellurium scarcity. Alternatively, improving tellurium yield from copper electrorefining is a more efficient mitigation approach. The system dynamic approach outlined in this study provides a better perspective on the status of various critical metal supply chains, ultimately leading to sustainable materials management and increasing CdTe production.