Sustainability Of Social-ecological Systems Research Articles

The Andes–Amazon–Atlantic pathway: A foundational hydroclimate system for social–ecological system sustainability

The Amazon River Basin’s extraordinary social–ecological system is sustained by various water phases, fluxes, and stores that are interconnected across the tropical Andes mountains, Amazon lowlands, and Atlantic Ocean. This “Andes–Amazon–Atlantic” (AAA) pathway is a complex hydroclimatic system linked by the regional water cycle through atmospheric circulation and continental hydrology. Here, we aim to articulate the AAA hydroclimate pathway as a foundational system for research, management, conservation, and governance of aquatic systems of the Amazon Basin. We identify and describe the AAA pathway as an interdependent, multidirectional, and multiscale hydroclimate system. We then present an assessment of recent (1981 to 2020) changes in the AAA pathway, primarily reflecting an acceleration in the rates of hydrologic fluxes (i.e., water cycle intensification). We discuss how the changing AAA pathway orchestrates and impacts social–ecological systems. We conclude with four recommendations for the sustainability of the AAA pathway in ongoing research, management, conservation, and governance.

Causes and consequences of tipping points in river delta social-ecological systems.

The sustainability of social-ecological systems within river deltas globally is in question as rapid development and environmental change trigger "negative" or "positive" tipping points depending on actors' perspectives, e.g. regime shift from abundant sediment deposition to sediment shortage, agricultural sustainability to agricultural collapse or shift from rural to urban landuse. Using a systematic review of the literature, we show how cascading effects across anthropogenic, ecological, and geophysical processes have triggered numerous tipping points in the governance, hydrological, and land-use management of the world's river deltas. Crossing tipping points had both positive and negative effects that generally enhanced economic development to the detriment of the environment. Assessment of deltas that featured prominently in the review revealed how outcomes of tipping points can inform the long-term trajectory of deltas towards sustainability or collapse. Management of key drivers at the delta scale can trigger positive tipping points to place social-ecological systems on a pathway towards sustainable development.

Learning through Place-Based Implementation of the UNESCO MAB Program in South Africa’s Oldest Biosphere Reserve: A Case Study of the Kogelberg Biosphere Reserve

UNESCO’s Man and the Biosphere Programme (MAB) is implemented through a world network of biosphere reserves, which offer a holistic people-centered landscape-level conservation approach. When successfully implemented the program enhances social–ecological system sustainability and resilience. However, there remains a research gap in understanding and collating lessons from individual sites for the benefit of the program globally. We assess MAB implementation in South Africa’s oldest biosphere reserve, the Kogelberg Biosphere Reserve (KBR; est. 1998). Using semi-structured in-depth interviews with directors and the coordinator, complemented by document analysis, we explore the governance and implementation learnings of the KBR as it has evolved. The KBR program implementation is guided by global necessity, but driven by the local context, which for the KBR translates to a non-profit organization cooperative governance model. The site faces a perceived lack of government financial support and awareness of the ‘biosphere reserve’ concept. Despite these challenges, successes have emerged in the formation of local partnerships to fulfil critical roles in socio-economic development and biodiversity conservation. The learnings from KBR, as it strives to become a model site for sustainability, are useful for other sites similarly operationalizing an international designation for local conditions.

The Effects of Tourism Development on Eco-Environment Resilience and Its Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Tourism sustainability is a significant approach to forming a synergistic model of industry and ecology in ecologically vulnerable areas. Scientifically detecting the effect mechanism of tourism development on eco-environment resilience is important in achieving regional social-ecological system sustainability. In this work, empirical exploration is conducted on the tourism development index (TDI) and eco-environment resilience index (ERI) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) to study the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of TDI’s effect on the ERI. The results indicate significant growth in the TDI in the YREB, with the formation of tourist clusters around Shanghai and Chongqing as the core. Although the ERI typically exhibits a declining trend, the rate of decline has notably slowed, forming a “high at the sides and low in the middle” spatial pattern. The TDI and ERI are spatially dependent in the YREB, with predominantly high-high (HH) and low-high (LH) clusters in Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu. Conversely, upstream regions with strong eco-environmental foundations exhibit low-low (LL) and high-low (HL) clusters. In general, the TDI promotes the ERI, but there is significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the YREB. Positive impact regions are expanding, while negative impact regions are shrinking. These results could provide scientific evidence for differentiated classification and control policies in the YREB.

Land use change analysis and modeling of its future trajectories in Morogoro Region, Tanzania: Implication for conservation

In Sub-Saharan Africa, where people's livelihoods depend largely on natural resources, understanding land use change dynamics and its implications for the sustainability of social-ecological systems is critical. This study analyzed both historic land use and land cover (LULC) change and trajectories for future change in the Morogoro Region, Tanzania. We mapped LULC in the study area for 1994, 2007 and 2020 using Random Forest in Google Earth Engine and projected future LULC in 2033 using Land Change Modeler. Results revealed that conversion of natural vegetation and wetlands has occurred at a high rate due to cropland expansion and will likely continue over the next decade. Conversion to cropland occurred on the edges of protected areas, in remnant forests and near existing cropland, and was associated with slope, elevation, proximity to settlements and variation in annual precipitation. In landscapes where wildlife shares areas with humans, converting natural vegetation into crop production increases tension and human-wildlife conflicts. Given compounding impacts of a growing human population in Tanzania, and reduced crop yields due to unpredictable rains and prolonged droughts, both human wellbeing and biodiversity conservation require understanding the resulting pressure on land and ecosystems.

“Future Compass”, a Tool That Allows Us to See the Right Horizon—Integration of Topic Modeling and Multiple-Factor Analysis

Coastal social–ecological systems (SES), particularly in large bays, are critical for fisheries, transportation, and disaster prevention in island and coastal countries. To achieve the sustainability of such bays, public involvement is recently considered inevitable for planning and management, but the increasing complexity of variables and future visions to be considered is one difficulty when trying to include many stakeholders and public opinions. To address this challenge, a free-associative description questionnaire survey was used in this study to extract holistic coastal residents’ future visions for Tokyo Bay, including both positive and negative outcomes. By integrating biterm topic modeling (BTM) and multiple-factor analysis (MFA), this study succeeded to aggregate and visualize the various future visions of Tokyo Bay with enhanced comprehensibility. As one outcome, the linkages and differences between the major topics in the positive and negative future visions were visualized as vectors in a correlation circle. Also, the study found that these two kinds of future vectors are not always polar opposites, but, rather, some of them are interlinked, pointing in the same direction. This highlights the importance of measuring the balance between two kinds of future vectors in consensus-building in order to search for the optimal future direction. Finally, the study discusses the potential of this method as a “Future Compass”, for implementing future-oriented consensus-building toward the sustainability of SES.

Yeknemilis: Social Learning and Intercultural Transdisciplinary Collaboration for Sustainable Life

Intercultural transdisciplinary research reinforces sustainable social-ecological systems in Latin America. Social learning (SL) is a crucial process within this type of research as it fosters collaboration among diverse groups of people, communities of practice, and cultures. Buen vivir (‘well living’), of the popular movements in America, promotes collective responsibility and respect for life. Yeknemilis (‘a good life’) is a value framework of the Masewal people of the Sierra Madre Oriental, Mexico. Members of Tosepan, an organization of the Masewal and other indigenous peoples of this region, reflected on their cultural roots, ways of life, and relations with the territory to strengthen their alternative and self-determined lifeway. Involvement in participatory research within the transdisciplinary process allowed us to focus on the learnings and conditions that foster values and strategies for yeknemilis. Through participant observation, semi-structured interviews, and participatory activities, we identified five key social learning areas that foster conditions for yeknemilis and life-sustaining relationships in intercultural transdisciplinary collaboration (ITC): collective action agenda, community capacities, intercultural transdisciplinarity, creative reflexivity, and a relational ontology horizon. Finally, we show how the collaborative construction of yeknemilis and social learning practices can be crucial in scaling up collective action toward sustainability.

Groundwater connections and sustainability in social-ecological systems.

Groundwater resources are connected with social, economic, ecological, and Earth systems. We introduce the framing of groundwater-connected systems to better represent the nature and complexity of these connections in data collection, scientific investigations, governance and management approaches, and groundwater education. Groundwater-connected systems are social, economic, ecological, and Earth systems that interact with groundwater, such as irrigated agriculture, groundwater-dependent ecosystems, and cultural relationships to groundwater expressions such as springs and rivers. Groundwater-connected systems form social-ecological systems with complex behaviours such as feedbacks, non-linear processes, multiple stable system states, and path dependency. These complex behaviours are only visible through this integrated system framing and are not endogenous properties of physical groundwater systems. The framing is syncretic as it aims to provide a common conceptual foundation for the growing disciplines of socio-hydrogeology, eco-hydrogeology, groundwater governance, and hydro-social groundwater analysis. The framing also facilitates greater alignment between the groundwater sustainability discourse and emerging sustainability concepts and principles. Aligning with these concepts and principles presents groundwater sustainability as more than a physical state to be reached; and argues that place-based and multi-faceted goals, values, justice, knowledge systems, governance and management must continually be integrated to maintain groundwater's social, ecological, and Earth system functions. The groundwater-connected system framing can underpin a broad, methodologically pluralistic, and community-driven new wave of data collection and analysis, research, governance, management, and education. These developments, together, can invigorate efforts to foster sustainable groundwater futures in the complex systems groundwater is embedded within. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Understanding the spatial relationships and drivers of ecosystem service supply-demand mismatches towards spatially-targeted management of social-ecological system

Managing relationships among ecosystem service supplies and demands and manipulating certain drivers to maintain well-balanced ecosystem service suites are key challenges for ensuring sustainable social-ecological systems. However, comprehensive research on the spatial relationships and determinants of ecosystem service supply-demand mismatches remains rare. Therefore, we assessed trade-offs and synergies among bundled ecosystem service supply-demand balances and their underlying drivers in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Four distinct ecosystem service bundles revealed diverse ecosystem service supply-demand mismatches among different locations associated with various trade-offs and synergies. Building weighted networks specifically for different bundles promoted innovative understandings of the emergent properties of ecosystem services and unveiled the topological ecosystem service differences, synergistic interdependences among these services and essential umbrella ecosystem services for improving multiple ecosystem service supply-demand states. Social factors severely increased ecosystem service deficits in some bundles, while biophysical factors more critically improved ecosystem service surpluses in other bundles. Besides, the similar nonlinear responses of both the overall supply-demand states of multiple services and the supply-demand relationships of umbrella ecosystem services to their shared drivers in most bundles further supported the important roles of umbrella services in improving ecosystem service multifunctionality. Our study emphasized the significance of considering the spatial relationships and drivers of ecosystem service supply-demand mismatches when targeting effective spatial policies for realizing the sustainability of social-ecological systems and could provide useful guidance for addressing complex human-nature interdependencies.

Utilizing relational values to investigate a federally administered soil conservation programme in the US Northwest

ABSTRACT Federal conservation programmes compensate property owners and farmers for sustained land-use practices which generate ecosystem services, yet enrolling participants can be a challenge. This paper studies that challenge in order to understand what values drive enrolment patterns in the Columbia River basin in the US Northwest, a region designated as a Critical Conservation Area by the US Department of Agriculture. Utilizing a relational values framework, the dynamics of the federally administered Conservation Reserve Program are explored. Findings are revealed through qualitative coding and analysis of semi-structured interviews and visual artefacts from programme participants, government employees and university-affiliated extension knowledge holders. This study concludes that five key relational values inform enrolment in this region beyond monetary reasons: stewardship, care, kinship, responsibility and identity. This paper posits that integrating information regarding relational values into federally administered conservation programmes may lead to more resilient and sustainable social–ecological systems.

The Nonlinear Impact of Mobile Human Activities on Vegetation Change in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

Vegetation is essential for ecosystem function and sustainable urban development. In the context of urbanization, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), as the typical urban-dominated region, has experienced a remarkable increase in social and economic activities. Their impact on vegetation is of great significance but unclear, as interannual flow data and linear methods have limitations. Therefore, in this study, we used human and vehicle flow data to build and simulate the indices of mobile human activity. In addition, we used partial least squares regression (PLSR), random forest (RF), and geographical detector (GD) models to analyze the impact of mobile human activities on vegetation change. The results showed that indices of mobile human and vehicle flow increased by 1.43 and 7.68 times from 2000 to 2019 in the GBA, respectively. Simultaneously, vegetation increased by approximately 64%, whereas vegetation decreased mainly in the urban areas of the GBA. Vegetation change had no significant linear correlation with mobile human activities, exhibiting a regression coefficient below 0.1 and a weight of coefficients of PLSR less than 40 between vegetation change and all the factors of human activities. However, a more significant nonlinear relationship between vegetation change and driving factors were obtained. In the RF regression model, vegetation decrease was significantly affected by mobile human activity of vehicle flow, with an importance score of 108.11. From the GD method, vegetation decrease was found to mainly interact with indices of mobile human and vehicle inflow, and the highest interaction force was 0.82. These results may support the attainment of sustainable social-ecological systems and global environmental change.

The Zoʻé perspective on what scientists call “forest management” and its implications for floristic diversity and biocultural conservation

Indigenous perspectives on forest management are grounded in traditional ecological knowledge (TEK), so that socioculture influences the ways Indigenous Peoples transform their landscapes. However, how socioculture structures Indigenous perspectives on forest management is unclear. Moreover, little is known about the influence of Indigenous landscape transformations on forest succession and floristic diversity. Here, we test hypotheses from biocultural and ecological theories suggesting that: (i) key social-ecological relationships with specific taxa structure Indigenous perspectives on forest management; (ii) such relationships guide sustainable management that generates resilient forest regrowth; and (iii) this management promotes floristic diversity by acting as an intermediate disturbance. We collected information about cosmology, occupation history and management among the Zoʻé, in Brazilian Amazonia. We also carried out floristic inventories in old-growth forests and in old Zoʻé swidden-fallow areas to analyze forest structure and alpha- and beta-diversity along a gradient of forest successional stages. We show that the Zoʻé perspective on forest management is structured by an ethical principle involving a social-ecological relationship with different beings, especially the spider monkey (<em>Ateles</em> sp.). This relationship generates mobility among the Zoʻé that allows forest regrowth in their fallow areas, so that in 28 years, forest basal area may equal that of old-growth forests. Also, Zoʻé forest management has increased alpha- and beta-diversity by increasing species richness and diversity in intermediate secondary forests and promoting floristic turnover at the landscape-level. These results show that some aspects of Zoʻé cosmology influence forest disturbance regimes that generate a sustainable social-ecological system, therefore being key for Zoʻé well-being and local biodiversity conservation. We believe that Indigenous perspectives about forest management should be included in forest conservation efforts aimed at protecting Amazonian biocultural diversity, thus valuing TEK and engendering sustainable social-ecological systems.

Smallholder farmers' perceptions of the natural and anthropogenic drivers of deforestation and forest degradation: a case study of Murehwa, Zimbabwe

Forests are an integral part of social-ecological systems, which provide economic, cultural and ecosystem services. The natural and socio-economic drivers of deforestation and forest degradation are affecting the sustainability of social-ecological systems. Several measures have been put in place to manage forest ecosystems. Nonetheless, multiple and complex drivers of deforestation and forest degradation have compromised these measures. The study sought to establish smallholder farmers’ perceptions on the multiplicity and complexity of factors to which they attribute deforestation and forest degradation. This is important for the successful formulation of improved forest conservation and management frameworks. The study was carried out with smallholder farmers in three wards of Murehwa District in Mashonaland East Province of Zimbabwe. Using ‘Q’ sort and factor analysis, we find that the smallholder farmers attribute deforestation and forest degradation to climate change, insects and diseases, unavoidable external events, a lack of alternative sources of fuel and the failure of existing institutional arrangements. Under such circumstances, forest governance and management efforts that focus solely on controlling human activities may not bring desired outcomes. Therefore, there is a need to take into account external factors when designing an effective contextual forest management strategy or framework.

Marine protected areas in the context of climate change: key challenges for coastal social-ecological systems.

Climate and ecological emergencies play out acutely in coastal systems with devastating impacts on biodiversity, and the livelihoods of communities and their cultural values. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are one of the key management and regulatory tools against biodiversity loss, playing a role in strengthening bio-cultural diversity and sustainability of coastal social-ecological systems. What is unclear though is the effectiveness of static protections under climate change as species move. Next to ecological uncertainty, regulatory uncertainty may play a role in weakening marine conservation. We asked whether MPAs are ecologically effective now and can sustain or improve to be so in the future while facing key climate and regulatory uncertainties. MPAs can support the protection of cultural values and have an impact on activities of sea-users and the sustainability of social-ecological systems. As such, questions surrounding their legitimacy under a changing climate and increased uncertainty are pertinent. We argue that MPA governance must be cognisant of the interdependency between natural and human systems and their joint reaction to climate change impacts based on an integrated, co-developed, and interdisciplinary approach. Focusing on the UK as a case study, we highlight some of the challenges to achieve effective, adaptive and legitimate governance of MPAs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems'.

When to Use Transdisciplinary Approaches for Environmental Research

Transdisciplinary research (TDR) can help generate solutions to environmental challenges and enhance the uptake of research outputs, thus contributing to advance sustainability in social-ecological systems. Our aim is to support investment decisions in TDR; more specifically, to help funders, researchers, and research users to decide when and why it is most likely to be worth investing in TDR approaches. To achieve our aim, we: 1) define TDR and use a decision tree comparing it with alternative modes of research (i.e., basic, applied, disciplinary, multi-disciplinary, and interdisciplinary research) to help researchers and funders distinguish TDR from other research modes; 2) identify features of the research problem and context (complexity, diverse knowledge systems, contestation, power imbalance, and disagreement on the need for transformative change) where a TDR approach could be more appropriate than the alternative research modes; and 3) explore the idea that the intensity of the contextual features in (2), together with the problem at hand, will help determine where a research project stands in a continuum from low- to high-TDR. We present five studies exemplifying lower- to higher-TDR approaches that are distinguished by: 1) the number and variety of research participants engaged; 2) the strength of involvement of non-academic actors; and 3) the number and variety of disciplines and knowledge systems involved in the research.

Resilience of a Complex Watershed under Water Variability: A Modeling Study

Understanding how socio-ecological systems respond to environmental variability is an important step in promoting system resilience. In this paper, we asked: How do the frequency and amplitude of water availability variation affect both the social-ecological regimes present and how the system transitions between them? How do these transitions differ under flood-prone and drought-prone conditions? We modified a dynamical systems model of a complex watershed to directly link environmental variability to system-level outcomes, specifically the livelihoods present in the system. The model results suggest that flood-prone systems exhibit more drastic regime shift behavior than drought-prone systems, with abrupt shifts from the complete participation to complete abandonment of livelihood sectors. Drought-prone systems appeared to be more sensitive to the amplitude of water variability, whereas flood-prone systems exhibited more complex relationships with amplitude and frequency, with frequency playing a bigger role compared to drought-prone systems. Lower frequency variations with sufficient amplitudes exposed the system to extended periods of environmental hardship, reducing the system’s ability to recover. Our analysis also highlighted the importance of environmental stochasticity: the deterministic version of the model that assumed no stochasticity overestimated system resilience. The model and analysis offer a more systematic framework to investigate the linkages between sustainability of social-ecological systems and environmental variability. This lays the groundwork for future research in systems with significant current or predicted environmental variability due to climate change.

Validity and validation in archetype analysis: practical assessment framework and guidelines

Archetype analysis is a promising approach in sustainability science to identify patterns and explain mechanisms shaping the sustainability of social-ecological systems. Although considerable efforts have been devoted to developing quality standards and methodological advances for archetype analysis, archetype validation remains a major challenge. Drawing on the insights from two international workshops on archetype analysis and on broader literature on validity, we propose a framework that identifies and describes six dimensions of validity: conceptual; construct; internal; external; empirical; and application validity. We first discuss the six dimensions in relation to different methodological approaches and purposes of archetype analysis. We then present an operational use of the framework for researchers to assess the validity of archetype analysis and to support sound archetype identification and policy-relevant applications. Finally, we apply our assessment to 18 published archetype analyses, which we use to describe the challenges and insights in validating the different dimensions and suggest ways to holistically improve the validity of identified archetypes. With this, we contribute to more rigorous archetype analyses, helping to develop the potential of the approach for guiding sustainability solutions.

Tinker, tailor or transform: Gender equality amidst social-ecological change

Global visions of environmental change consider gender equality to be a foundation of sustainable social-ecological systems. Similarly, social-ecological systems frameworks position gender equality as both a precursor to, and a product of, system sustainability. Yet, the degree to which gender equality is being advanced through social-ecological systems change is uncertain. We use the case of small-scale fisheries in the Pacific Islands region to explore the proposition that different social-ecological narratives: (1) ecological, (2) social-ecological, and (3) social, shape the gender equality priorities, intentions and impacts of implementing organizations. We conducted interviews with regional and national fisheries experts (n = 71) and analyzed gender commitments made within policies (n = 29) that influence small-scale fisheries. To explore these data, we developed a ‘Tinker-Tailor-Transform’ gender assessment typology. We find that implementing organizations aligned with the social-ecological and social narratives considered social (i.e., human-centric) goals to be equally or more important than ecological (i.e., eco-centric) goals. Yet in action, gender equality was pursued instrumentally to achieve ecological goals and/or shallow project performance targets. These results highlight that although commitments to gender equality were common, when operationalized commitments become diluted and reoriented. Across all three narratives, organizations mostly ‘Tinkered’ with gender equality in impact, for example, including more women in spaces that otherwise tended to be dominated by men. Impacts predominately focused on the individual (i.e., changing women) rather than driving communal-to-societal level change. We discuss three interrelated opportunities for organizations in applying the ‘Tinker-Tailor-Transform’ assessment typology, including its utility to assist organizations to orient toward intrinsic goals; challenge or reconfigure system attributes that perpetuate gender inequalities; and consciously interrogate discursive positions and beliefs to unsettle habituated policies, initiatives and theories of change.

Framework for the sustainable development of village tanks in cascades as an adaptation to climate change and for improved water security, Sri Lanka

Abstract The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by all UN member states, provides a policy framework for achieving sustainable development goals. The 13th SDG: Climate Action is fully dedicated to ‘taking urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts’. Increasing storage is a key adaptation strategy in the water sector, and restoration and rehabilitation of ancient village tanks have been identified as one of the Nationally Determined Contributions in Sri Lanka. Though the country has engaged in the restoration of village tanks for nearly 170 years, only around 50% of the ancient tanks amounting to around 16,000 are restored and in working condition. Hence, this study aims to identify a strategy for restoring the abandoned tanks in the country towards achieving Sustainable Development Goals. The study reviewed the evolution of policies and approaches adopted in developing village tanks and identified conceptual and technical drawbacks in the existing normative assessment approach. New conceptual and decision-making frameworks were developed, incorporating design-level strategic considerations identified while following a multidimensional and transdisciplinary approach. The approach presented would be a viable strategy to develop village tanks in cascades as sustainable social–ecological systems.

Land use land cover change and the resilience of social-ecological systems in a sub-region in South west Cameroon.

The old paradigm of horizontal expansion of agricultural land and built-up areas over highland and lowland ecosystems remains highly prevalent in Cameroon, causing significant changes in LULC and undermining the resilience and sustainability of social-ecological systems. We analysed satellite imagery of 1986 and 2018 to examine the extent and spatial patterns of LULCC in Fako sub-region of Cameroon. In addition, we explored the likelihood of LULCC and magnitude of impact of the drivers and predictors of LULCC in the sub-region by engaging 25 stakeholders in a focus group survey. Other cultivated areas of cropland, built-up, oil palm, and banana plantation covers increased by 21,360ha (10.5%), 3152ha (1.6%), 5721ha (2.8%), and 1823ha (0.9%), while dense forest, rubberand tea plantation covers decreased by - 44,945ha (- 22.1%), - 15,557ha (- 7.7%), and - 110ha (- 0.1%), respectively, from 1986 to 2018. Most of the deforestation and LULCC was caused by expansion of other cultivated areas of cropland by smallholders, contrary to the widely publicised narrative of agro-industrial and built-up areas expansion. The spatial pattern of LULCC showed that expansion of other cultivated areas of cropland and agro-industrial plantations were highest in the north and east zones, respectively, while expansion of built-up areas and decrease in agro-industrial plantation covers were highest in the central, south and western coastal zones of Fako division. The variations in the spatial patterns of LULCC between the sub-divisions are attributed to differences in rates of population growth and urbanisation, topography, size of farming population, proportion of cultivable land, socio-economic opportunities, and strength and resilience of local economy. The presence of the Mount Cameroon (4095m), with high value forests, endemism, and conservation attractiveness restricted increased LULCC with elevation, while LULCC increased with nearness to the sea and national road networks. The likelihood of change from one LULC to oil palm plantation, banana plantation, and other cultivated areas and from rubber plantation, dense forest, lowland grassland to other land uses was 95% and 90%, respectively. Population growth, agricultural and farmland expansion, and infrastructural development were ranked asthe three most important drivers of degradation under the business as usual scenario, while sustainable land management, good governance, and reforestation were ranked as thethree most important predictors of LULCC reduction under the green economy scenario. In general, production and living space functions significantly increased at the expense of ecological land cover. Prioritising and increasing the legal protection of the mountain and coastal land-boundary ecosystems while providing for production and living land areinvaluable for the sustainability of the social-ecological systems in the western highlands of Cameroon.