Surveillance, Epidemiology, And End Results Data Research Articles

Enhancing clinical decision-making: A novel nomogram for stratifying cancer-specific survival in middle-aged individuals with follicular thyroid carcinoma utilizing SEER data

BackgroundThyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignant tumor in the endocrine system, is also one of the head and neck tumor. Follicular Thyroid Carcinoma (FTC) plays an important role in the pathological classification of thyroid cancer. This study aimed to develop an innovative predictive tool, a nomogram, for predicting cancer specific survival (CSS) in middle-aged FTC patients. MethodsWe collected patient data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The data from patients between 2004 and 2015 were used as the training set, and the data from patients between 2016 and 2018 were used as the validation set. To identify independent risk factors affecting patient survival, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed. Based on this, we developed a nomogram model aimed at predicting CSS in middle-aged patients with FTC. The consistency index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and the calibration curve were used to evaluate the accuracy and confidence of the model. ResultsA total of 2470 patients were enrolled in this study, in which patients from 2004 to 2015 were randomly assigned to the training cohort (N = 1437) and validation cohort (N = 598), and patients from 2016 to 2018 were assigned to the external validation cohort (N = 435) in terms of time. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that marriage, histological grade and TNM stage were independent risk factors for survival. The C-index for the training cohort was 0.866 (95 % CI: 0.805–0.927), for the validation cohort it was 0.944 (95 % CI: 0.903–0.985), and for the external validation cohort, it reached 0.999 (95 % CI: 0.997–1.001). Calibration curves and AUC suggest that the model has good accuracy. ConclusionsWe developed an innovative nomogram to predict CSS in middle-aged patients with FTC. Our model after a rigorous internal validation and external validation process, based on the time proved that the high level of accuracy and reliability. This tool helps healthcare professionals and patients make informed clinical decisions.

Validating the 2023 FIGO staging system: A nomogram for endometrioid endometrial cancer and adenocarcinoma.

To find the factors impacting overall survival (OS) prognosis in patients with endometrioid endometrial carcinoma (EEC) and adenocarcinoma and to establish a nomogram model to validate the 2023 International Federation of Obstetrics and Gynecology (FIGO) staging system for endometrial cancer. Data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) training cohort. An independent validation cohort was obtained from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University between 2008 and 2023. Cox regression analysis identified independent prognostic factors for OS in EEC and adenocarcinoma patients. A nomogram predicting OS was developed and validated utilizing the C-index, calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The relationship between the tumor grade and prognosis of EEC and adenocarcinoma was quantified using net reclassification improvement (NRI), propensity score matching (PSM), and Kaplan-Meier curves. Cox regression analysis identified age, race, marital status, tumor grade, tumor stage, tumor size, and chemotherapy as independent prognostic factors for OS. A nomogram for predicting OS was developed based on these factors. The C-indexes for the OS nomogram was 0.743 and 0.720 for the SEER training set and external validation set, respectively. The area under the ROC (AUC) for the OS nomogram was 0.755, 0.757, and 0.741 for the SEER data subsets and 0.844, 0.719, and 0.743 for the external validation subsets. Calibration plots showed high concordance between the nomogram-predicted and observed OS. DCA also demonstrated the clinical utility of the OS nomogram. NRI, PSM, and survival analyses revealed that tumor grade was the most important histopathological factor for EEC and adenocarcinoma prognosis. Seven independent prognostic variables for the OS of patients with EEC and adenocarcinoma were identified. The established OS nomogram has good predictive ability and clinical utility and validates the 2023 endometrial cancer FIGO staging system.

Survival Outcomes in Thyroid Cancer Patients with Co-Occurring Breast Cancer: Evidence of Mortality Risk Attenuation

BackgroundPrevious studies have reported a strong correlation between breast cancer (BC) and thyroid cancer (TC) incidence. However, the clinical and oncological impact of these associations are not yet fully understood. Here, we aimed to explore the differences in clinicopathological characteristics between TC patients with and without BC, and the effect of a history of positive BC on TC survival. MethodsWe retrospectively compared the clinical characteristics and survival rates of patients with TC alone and those with TC and BC in a primary cohort at our institution and in a second cohort using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. ResultsIn our institutional cohort, survival rates were similar between patients with TC alone and those with TC-associated BC. However, using SEER data, we found that BC had a protective effect on TC patients and was associated with reduced TC mortality rates (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57 to 0.92; P = .026). After stratifying the TC patients according to co-occurring BC subtypes, we observed that higher survival rates were restricted to patients with coexisting luminal A BC (P = .015), which exhibit positive hormone receptors and do not express HER-2. ConclusionThese findings suggest that hormone pathways may play a role in the co-occurrence of thyroid and breast cancers. Patients with TC coexisting with luminal A BC have higher survival rates. However, further studies on the mechanisms underlying the association between BC and TC are warranted.

Nomogram model for predicting cancer-specific mortality in patients with early-onset colorectal cancer: a competing risk analysis insight from the SEER database and an external validation cohort.

Early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) is increasing in incidence and poses a growing threat. Urgent research is needed, especially in survival analysis, to enhance comprehension and treatment strategies. This study aimed to explore the risk factors associated with cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and other-cause mortality (OCM) in patients with EOCRC. Additionally, the study aimed to develop a nomogram predicting CSM using a competitive risk model and validate its accuracy through the use of training, using internal and external cohorts. Data from EOCRC patients were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2008-2017). EOCRC patients who were treated at a tertiary hospital in northeast China between 2014 and 2020 were also included in the study. The SEER data were divided into the training and validation sets at a 7:3 ratio. A univariate Cox regression model was employed to identify prognostic factors. Subsequently, multivariate Cox regression models were applied to ascertain the presence of independent risk factors. A nomogram was generated to visualize the results, which were evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curves. The clinical utility was assessed via decision curve analysis (DCA). Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated that factors such as race, tumor differentiation, levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), marital status, histological type, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, and surgical status were independent risk factors for CSM in EOCRC patients. In addition, age, gender, chemotherapy details, CEA levels, marital status, and AJCC stage were established as independent risk factors for OCM in individuals diagnosed with EOCRC. A nomogram was developed using the identified independent risk factors, demonstrating excellent performance with a C-index of 0.806, 0.801, and 0.810 for the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves and AUC further confirmed the accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram. Furthermore, the DCA results indicated that the model had good clinical value. In this study, a competing risk model for CSM was developed in EOCRC patients. The model demonstrates a high level of predictive accuracy, providing valuable insights into the treatment decision-making process.

Developing and validating a nomogram for penile cancer survival: A comprehensive study based on SEER and Chinese data.

The primary aim of this study was to create a nomogram for predicting survival outcomes in penile cancer patients, utilizing data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and a Chinese organization. Our study involved a cohort of 5744 patients diagnosed with penile cancer from the SEER database, spanning from 2004 to 2019. In addition, 103 patients with penile cancer from Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University were included during the same period. Based on the results of regression analysis, a nomogram is constructed and validated internally and externally. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated by concordance index (c-index), area under the curve, decision curve analysis, and calibration curve, in internal and external datasets. Finally, the prediction efficiency is compared with the TNM staging model. A total of 3154 penile patients were randomly divided into the training group and the internal validation group at a ratio of 2:1. Nine independent risk factors were identified, including age, race, marital status, tumor grade, histology, TNM stage, and the surgical approach. Based on these factors, a nomogram was constructed to predict OS. The nomogram demonstrated relatively better consistency, predictive accuracy, and clinical relevance, with a c-index over 0.73 (in the training cohort, the validation cohort, and externally validation cohort.) These evaluation indexes are far better than the TNM staging system. Penile cancer, often overlooked in research, has lacked detailed investigative focus and guidelines. This study stands as the first to validate penile cancer prognosis using extensive data from the SEER database, supplemented by data from our own institution. Our findings equip surgeons with an essential tool to predict the prognosis of penile cancer better suited than TNM, thereby enhancing clinical decision-making processes.

Abstract 843: The burden of Merkel cell carcinoma attributable to immunosuppression, ultraviolet radiation, and Merkel cell polyomavirus in the United States

Abstract Background: Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare, aggressive skin cancer. No published study has estimated the contribution of the major potentially modifiable risk factors, such as immunosuppression, ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and infection with Merkel cell polyomavirus (MCPyV), to the burden of MCC in the US. We estimated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) for MCC associated with immunosuppression (HIV and organ transplantation), MCPyV, and UVR in the US during 2001-2020. Methods: We calculated PAFs for immunosuppression and UVR using the formula: prevalence in cases (Pc)*[(Relative risk, RR-1)/RR]. The proportion of MCC cases among organ recipients and people with HIV (Pc) were derived from US cancer registries in the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study, Transplant Cancer Match Study, and the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program data. To approximate the RRs, we calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) comparing MCC incidence in people with HIV and organ recipients to the general population. We merged SEER data on MCC cases by county with data on ambient UVR levels in order to create population quintiles of UVR exposure. Since only non-Hispanic White individuals showed elevated IRRs for increased ambient UVR exposure, we estimated the PAF of UVR by calculating incidence rate ratios (IRR ≈ RR) comparing MCC incidence in non-Hispanic White individuals to all other races/ethnicities (at any UVR level) as the reference; here, Pc was the proportion of non-Hispanic White patients in each quintile. To estimate the PAF of MCPyV, we meta-analyzed US studies reporting on MCPyV prevalence in MCC tissues (here PAF ≈ Pc). Results: Over the study period (2001-2020), 40,571 MCCs were diagnosed in the US. Compared to the general population, organ recipients had 13 times higher (SIR=12.7, CI: 11.3-14.2) and people with HIV had three times higher (SIR=2.78, CI: 2.01-3.75) risk of MCC. Due to the rarity of these exposures (HIV Pc = 0.4%; Transplant Pc = 1.9%), only 0.2% of MCC cases were attributable to HIV and 1.7% were attributable to organ transplantation. Compared with people in other racial/ethnic groups, the IRRs of non-Hispanic White individuals at the various levels of ambient UVR for MCC arising on the head and neck ranged from 4.24 to 5.03 and for other primary sites ranged from 2.81 to 3.36. After combining the PAFs for these sites, the overall PAF for UVR was 65.8%. Meta-analyzing 20 studies with 984 MCC cases combined, we found that 66.1% (CI: 58.0-72.2%) of MCCs were attributable to MCPyV. Conclusions: While a small proportion of MCCs were due to immunosuppression from HIV infection and organ transplantation, UVR and MCPyV played a major role in MCC burden. Future research is required to assess the combined impact of these risk factors on MCC incidence. Citation Format: Jacob T. Tribble, Karena Volesky-Avellaneda, Qianlai Luo, Michael R. Sargen, Isaac Brownell, Elizabeth K. Cahoon, Meredith Shiels, Ruth Pfeiffer, Adrianne Moreno, Brenda Y. Hernandez, Eric Engels. The burden of Merkel cell carcinoma attributable to immunosuppression, ultraviolet radiation, and Merkel cell polyomavirus in the United States [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 843.

Incidence trends of lentigo maligna and lentigo maligna melanoma in the United States from 2000 to 2019.

Information on lentigo maligna (LM) and lentigo maligna melanoma (LMM) in the 21st century is scarce. We aimed to elucidate the incidence of LM and LMM using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 17 Registries. The data of patients diagnosed between 2000 and 2019 were extracted from the SEER database. The percentage of LM/LMM cases among all melanoma patients, age-standardized incidence rates, estimated annual percentage changes, and the cumulative incidence of LMM after LM were calculated. The SEER data yielded 95,175 patients with LM/LMM between 2000 and 2019. Cases of LM/LMM accounted for 15.7% of all melanomas. The age-standardized incidence per 100,000 person-years for LM increased from 4.16 to 5.61 and for LMM from 1.33 to 2.35 between 2000 and 2019. The annual increase in incidence of LM was 2.42%, and that of LMM was 3.32%. The cumulative incidence of LMM after a primary LM after 10-year follow-up was 0.94%. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of the epidemiological status of LM/LMM in the United States in the 21st century using the population-based SEER data.

Prognostic Factors in Pediatric Alveolar Rhabdomyosarcoma: SEER Analysis of 277 Cases.

Alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma (ARMS) is a rare but highly aggressive cancer predominantly affecting children and adolescents. This study explores prognostic factors for pediatric and adolescent ARMS, using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Leveraging SEER data (2000-2019), we analyzed 277 cases. Employing Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards models, we identified significant prognostic factors. Gender distribution was nearly equal (56.0% boys, 44.0% girls), with the majority (70.8%) from the white ethnic group. Primary tumors were predominantly in extremities (37.2%). Distant metastases significantly increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR], 3.13; 95% CI: 2.14-4.58) and regional lymph node involvement raised mortality risk (HR, 1.36; 95% CI: 0.96-1.92). Chemotherapy-only treatment had higher mortality risk than chemoradiotherapy (HR, 1.16; 95% CI: 0.97-2.67). Conclusively, our study identifies distant metastases, regional lymph node involvement, and treatment modality as crucial predictors of overall survival in pediatric ARMS.

Benign Breast Disease and Breast Cancer Risk in the Percutaneous Biopsy Era

Benign breast disease (BBD) comprises approximately 75% of breast biopsy diagnoses. Surgical biopsy specimens diagnosed as nonproliferative (NP), proliferative disease without atypia (PDWA), or atypical hyperplasia (AH) are associated with increasing breast cancer (BC) risk; however, knowledge is limited on risk associated with percutaneously diagnosed BBD. To estimate BC risk associated with BBD in the percutaneous biopsy era irrespective of surgical biopsy. In this retrospective cohort study, BBD biopsy specimens collected from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2013, from patients with BBD at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, were reviewed by 2 pathologists masked to outcomes. Women were followed up from 6 months after biopsy until censoring, BC diagnosis, or December 31, 2021. Benign breast disease classification and multiplicity by pathology panel review. The main outcome was diagnosis of BC overall and stratified as ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) or invasive BC. Risk for presence vs absence of BBD lesions was assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression. Risk in patients with BBD compared with female breast cancer incidence rates from the Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program were estimated. Among 4819 female participants, median age was 51 years (IQR, 43-62 years). Median follow-up was 10.9 years (IQR, 7.7-14.2 years) for control individuals without BC vs 6.6 years (IQR, 3.7-10.1 years) for patients with BC. Risk was higher in the cohort with BBD than in SEER data: BC overall (standard incidence ratio [SIR], 1.95; 95% CI, 1.76-2.17), invasive BC (SIR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.37-1.78), and DCIS (SIR, 3.10; 95% CI, 2.54-3.77). The SIRs increased with increasing BBD severity (1.42 [95% CI, 1.19-1.71] for NP, 2.19 [95% CI, 1.88-2.54] for PDWA, and 3.91 [95% CI, 2.97-5.14] for AH), comparable to surgical cohorts with BBD. Risk also increased with increasing lesion multiplicity (SIR: 2.40 [95% CI, 2.06-2.79] for ≥3 foci of NP, 3.72 [95% CI, 2.31-5.99] for ≥3 foci of PDWA, and 5.29 [95% CI, 3.37-8.29] for ≥3 foci of AH). Ten-year BC cumulative incidence was 4.3% for NP, 6.6% for PDWA, and 14.6% for AH vs an expected population cumulative incidence of 2.9%. In this contemporary cohort study of women diagnosed with BBD in the percutaneous biopsy era, overall risk of BC was increased vs the general population (DCIS and invasive cancer combined), similar to that in historical BBD cohorts. Development and validation of pathologic classifications including both BBD severity and multiplicity may enable improved BC risk stratification.

Survival determinants of patients with uncertain behavior pituitary tumors: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database study

IntroductionThe “borderline” pituitary tumor category between typical benign adenomas and pituitary carcinomas is a subject of ongoing controversy. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database classifies uncertain behavior pituitary tumors (UPTs) under the “borderline” category including atypical adenomas with presumed propensity for aggressive behavior. Very little is known about UPT patient survival prognostic factors. We aimed to characterize survival risk factors of patients with UPT according to the SEER database. MethodsSEER 17 database was queried for pituitary tumors and further separated by SEER classification of “Borderline” under the category “ICD-O-3 Hist/behav, malignant”. Patient demographics, tumor characteristic, extent of disease and treatment data were extracted and analyzed. A nomogram was built assessing survival. ResultsThree hundred and thirty-two patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2019 were included. The survival rates at 1, 5 and 10 years were 86.8 %, 78.6 % and 65.1 %, respectively. Female sex and age <65 years correlated with a better prognosis (HR 2.41, 95 % CI [1.57–3.68], p = 4.00E-05 and HR 5.47; 95 % CI [3.53–8.45], p = 3.00E-15). Patients undergoing surgery had a better prognosis than those pursuing non-surgical management (HR 0.43, 95 % CI [0.19–0.97], p = 0.02). A nomogram incorporating sex, age and surgical versus non-surgical treatment status was created. The nomogram demonstrated acceptable accuracy in estimating the survival probability at 1- and 2-years, with a C-index of 0.751 (95 % CI: 0.641–0.861). ConclusionFemale sex, age <65 years and surgical resection are significant factors determining UPT patient survival based on SEER data. The proposed nomogram achieved good potential for predicting UPT patient survival.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Use of Novel Hormonal Therapy Agents in Patients With Prostate Cancer

Novel hormonal therapy (NHT) agents have been shown to prolong overall survival in numerous randomized clinical trials for patients with advanced prostate cancer (PCa). There is a paucity of data regarding the pattern of use of these agents in patients from different racial and ethnic groups. To assess racial and ethnic disparities in the use of NHT in patients with advanced PCa. This cohort study comprised all men diagnosed with de novo advanced PCa (distant metastatic [M1], regional [N1M0], and high-risk localized [N0M0] per Systemic Therapy in Advancing or Metastatic Prostate Cancer: Evaluation of Drug Efficacy [STAMPEDE] trial criteria) with Medicare Part A, B, and D coverage between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2017, in a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database including prescription drug records. Data analysis took place from January through May 2023. Race and ethnicity (Black [non-Hispanic], Hispanic, White, or other [Alaska Native, American Indian, Asian, Pacific Islander, or not otherwise specified and unknown]) abstracted from the SEER data fields. The primary outcome was receipt of an NHT agent (abiraterone, enzalutamide, apalutamide, or darolutamide) using a time-to-event approach. The study included 3748 men (median age, 75 years [IQR, 70-81 years]). A total of 312 (8%) were Black; 263 (7%), Hispanic; 2923 (78%), White; and 250 (7%) other race and ethnicity. The majority of patients had M1 disease (2135 [57%]) followed by high-risk N0M0 (1095 [29%]) and N1M0 (518 [14%]) disease. Overall, 1358 patients (36%) received at least 1 administration of NHT. White patients had the highest 2-year NHT utilization rate (27%; 95% CI, 25%-28%) followed by Hispanic patients (25%; 95% CI, 20%-31%) and patients with other race or ethnicity (23%; 95% CI, 18%-29%), with Black patients having the lowest rate (20%; 95% CI, 16%-25%). Black patients had significantly lower use of NHT compared with White patients, which persisted at 5 years (37% [95% CI, 31%-43%] vs 44% [95% CI, 42%-46%]; P = .02) and beyond. However, there was no significant difference between White patients and Hispanic patients or patients with other race or ethnicity in NHT utilization (eg, 5 years: Hispanic patients, 38% [95% CI, 32%-46%]; patients with other race and ethnicity: 41% [95% CI, 35%-49%]). Trends of lower utilization among Black patients persisted in the patients with M1 disease (eg, vs White patients at 5 years: 51% [95% CI, 44%-59%] vs 55% [95% CI, 53%-58%]). After adjusting for patient, disease, and sociodemographic factors in multivariable analysis, Black patients continued to have a significantly lower likelihood of NHT initiation (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.61-0.94, P = .01). In this cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries with advanced PCa, receipt of NHT agents was not uniform by race, with decreased use observed in Black patients compared with the other racial and ethnic groups, likely due to multifactorial obstacles. Future studies are needed to identify strategies to address the disparities in the use of these survival-prolonging therapies in Black patients.

Rural-Urban and Racial Trends in Survival of Patients with Multiple Myeloma: 1975-2019 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Analysis

Introduction Although five-year survival rates for multiple myeloma (MM) in the US have continued to steadily improve in recent decades, these advances have not accrued equally to all segments of the population. Sub-groups of patients differentiated by race, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and geographic location continue to experience inferior survival rates of MM. Little is known about the interacting effects of rural-urban differences and race on the outcomes of patients with MM. The objective of this study is to examine national rural-urban trends in 5-year myeloma-specific survival and overall survival (OS) for patients with MM in a diverse sample of racial groups. Methods This cross-sectional study used SEER data from 1975-2019 to include patients diagnosed with MM. Patients who were 18 years or younger, had missing information regarding rural or urban designation, and had missing follow-up time were excluded. Rural-urban designation was determined using the 2013 Rural Urban Continuum Codes (RUCC). Patients in counties with codes 1 to 3 were classified as urban, while all counties with codes 4 to 9 were rural. SEER coded race and ethnicity data was used. OS was calculated as the time from diagnosis to death from any cause or censored if the patient was still alive. Myeloma-specific survival was calculated as the time from diagnosis to myeloma-related death or censored if the patient was still alive; deaths due to non-myeloma causes were censored at the date of death. These patients were excluded from analysis: missing or unknown cause of death; Non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander, and Non-Hispanic Unknown Race. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate 5-year survival rates. Cox proportional hazards regression was used for multivariable modeling of survival data. All survival analyses were completed using SAS 9.4. For all p-values in the model, the 0.05 alpha level was used. Results From 1975 to 2019, there were 40,435 MM cases, with 55.9% between ages 60 and 79 years (Table). Overall, there were 18,680 (46.2%) female, 2,815 (7%) Hispanic (all races), 6,100 (15.1%) Non-Hispanic Black (NHB), and 31,510 (77.9%) Non-Hispanic White (NHW) patients. The majority of patients were classified as urban (84.7%). Rural patients were more likely to be NHW (92.2%). Very few (1.3%) NHB patients were from rural counties. Additionally, 23,180 (57.3%) patients were diagnosed between 2000 and 2019. The 5-year OS and myeloma-specific survival rates increased substantially from 1975 to 2019 across all races (Figure). During the study period, the 5-year myeloma-specific survival rate increased from 28.1% to 62.8% for urban patients and from 26.5% to 56% for rural patients. In the multivariable model (data available after January 1, 1990) younger age, urban home address, later year of diagnosis and NHB race were significantly associated with superior myeloma-specific survival (p&amp;lt;0.01). Compared with NHW, NHB patients had significantly improved myeloma-specific survival (HR=0.928, 95% CI: 0.889-0.969, p=0.0007). There was no significant interaction between rurality and race (p&amp;gt;0.05). In multivariable model for OS, younger age, later year of diagnosis, female sex and urban home address were associated with superior OS (p&amp;lt;0.01), but race/ethnicity was no longer a significant predictor. Conclusions Over 4+ decade study period, 5-year OS and myeloma-specific survival rate increased in all racial groups regardless of rural-urban location. The survival of rural patients was consistently lower than urban patients for NHW and Hispanics. Due to the small sample size, we did not analyze this relationship for NHB patients. Although the annual percent change for myeloma-specific survival was greater for NHW than NHB patients, the latter exhibited better outcomes compared with NHW patients even after adjusting for all other factors including age, sex, year of diagnosis and rural or urban home location. We plan to expand our analyses to include SEER-Medicare linked database to understand if differences in treatment variables, demographics and socioeconomic status can explain the disparities in survival.

The Epidemiology of Cardiovascular Disease in African American Patients with Myeloid Neoplasms: A SEER Data Analysis

Introduction: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates are higher in cancer survivors compared to the general population. Numerous studies have reported racial disparities in CVD mortality among cancer survivors. However, there is a lack of research exploring CVD mortality specifically in African American (AA) patients (pts) with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN). To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive population-based study to analyze cardiovascular mortality in the AA population with MDS and MPN. Methods and Statistical analysis: In Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database using the 17 registries, we identified cases of essential thrombocythemia (ET), Polycythemia Vera (PV), Primary Myelofibrosis (PMF), and Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) in AA population diagnosed between 2001-2020, with the diagnosis age &amp;gt;=20. CVD deaths included deaths from heart diseases, hypertension without heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, atherosclerosis, and diabetes mellitus, based on the SEER Causes of Death Register and International Classification of Diseases (10th Revision, ICD10). Death rates were calculated by dividing the number of deaths over person-years of follow-up. We also estimated the standardized mortality ratios (SMR by dividing the observed cardiovascular deaths rates in our sample over expected CVD death rates of general population with no cancer, matched to age, gender and ethnicity. All analyses were performed by SEER*Stat 8.4.1.2 and R 4.2.2. Results: The study included 8135 patients, with following diagnoses: ET (n= 2317), PV (n= 1231), PMF (n= 377) and MDS (n= 4210). Overall, 2640 of the total study population (32.45%) died, of which 39.5% were CVD deaths. The mean follow up for PV, ET, PMF and MDS cohorts was 6.44, 5.95, 3.67 and 3.82 years, respectively (Table 1). The CVD mortality rate per 1,000 person-years in PV, ET and PMF subgroups were 17.9, 14.95, and 29.6, respectively. Notably, the rate was highest in the MDS subgroup, 40.37 compared to other subgroups (P&amp;lt;0.01). Comparing the CVD mortality of each risk group to the general US AA population, we observed significantly increased CVD SMRs. These were highest in PMF and MDS (SMR, 3.07; 95% CI, 2.2-4.16 and 2.25; 95% CI, 2.08-2.43, respectively), followed by PV (SMR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.47-2.06) and ET (SMR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.45-1.92).When comparing CVD mortality to the general CVD mortality rate in the AA population, we found higher rates across all age groups, including SMR, 13.16; 95% CI, 4.27- 30.72 in 20-29 yrs, SMR, 5.4; 95% CI, 2.95- 9.06 in 30-39 yrs, (SMR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.92- 2.52) in 60-69 yrs, (SMR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.67- 2.1) in 70-79 yrs (Figure 1). Conclusion: Our analysis highlights the magnitude of CVD-related deaths in the AA population with MDS and MPN. Among studied subgroups, the impact was highest in patients with MDS. This could be explained by a shared mechanism of CVD pathogenesis with MDS and clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP). In addition, we report a higher risk of CVD mortality at younger ages in AA pts relative to older age group. Because CVD-related mortality is high in AA with MDS and MPN, introduction of preventative cardiology services after diagnosis might be warranted to improve survival.

Updated Trends in the Utilization of Brachytherapy in Cervical Cancer in the United States: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results Study

BackgroundA previous Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) study revealed a concerning decline in brachytherapy utilization in the United States between 1988-2009. This study evaluates recent trends in brachytherapy utilization in cervical cancer, and identifies factors and survival benefit associated with the use of brachytherapy treatment. Methods and MaterialsUsing SEER data, 8500 patients with FIGO 2009 stage IB2-IVA cervical cancer treated with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) between 2000-2020 were identified. Logistic regression analysis was performed on potential factors associated with brachytherapy use: age, marital status, race, ethnicity, income, metropolitan status, year of diagnosis, SEER region, histology, grade and stage. To adjust for differences between patients who received brachytherapy and those who did not, propensity-score matching was used. Multivariable Cox regression analysis assessed the association of brachytherapy use with cervical cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and all-cause mortality (ACM) in the matched cohort. ResultsSixty-four percent of the 8500 women received brachytherapy in combination with EBRT; 36% received EBRT alone. The brachytherapy utilization rate declined sharply in 2003/2004 (lowest rate 44% in 2003), and then gradually improved especially in 2018-2020 (76%). Factors associated with higher odds of brachytherapy use included younger age, married (versus single), later years of diagnosis, certain SEER regions and earlier stage. In the propensity-score matched cohort, brachytherapy treatment was associated with lower 4-year cumulative incidence of cancer death (32.1% vs 43.4%, P<.001) and better overall survival (OS, 64.0% vs 51.4%, P<.001). Brachytherapy treatment was independently associated with lower CSM (hazard ratio [HR] 0.70, 95% CI 0.64-0.76; P<.001) and ACM (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.67-0.78; P<.001). ConclusionBrachytherapy utilization among SEER regions has improved since 2004 in patients with stage IB2-IVA cervical cancer. Brachytherapy use remains independently associated with significantly lower CSM and ACM, and an essential component of treatment for patients with locally advanced cervical cancer.

Racial disparities in prostate cancer mortality: a model-based decomposition of contributing factors.

To investigate the relative contributions of natural history and clinical interventions to racial disparities in prostate cancer mortality in the United States, we extended a model that was previously calibrated to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence rates for the general population and for Black men. The extended model integrated SEER data on curative treatment frequencies and cancer-specific survival. Starting with the model for all men, we replaced up to 9 components with corresponding components for Black men, projecting age-standardized mortality rates for ages 40-84 years at each step. Based on projections in 2019, the increased frequency of developing disease, more aggressive tumor features, and worse cancer-specific survival in Black men diagnosed at local-regional and distant stages explained 38%, 34%, 22%, and 8% of the modeled disparity in mortality. Our results point to intensified screening and improved care in Black men as priority areas to achieve greater equity.

Evaluation of the Completeness of Managed Care Data to Identify Cancer Diagnoses and Treatments for Patients in the SEER-Medicare Data.

The utility of codes on Medicare Advantage (MA) data to capture cancer diagnoses and treatment for cancer patients is unknown. This study compared cancer diagnoses and treatments on MA encounter data (MA data) with the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results (SEER) data. Subjects were patients enrolled in either MA or Medicare fee-for-service (MFFS) when diagnosed with incident breast, colorectal, prostate, or lung cancer, 2015-2017, in a SEER cancer registry. MA data, from 2 months before to 12 months following SEER diagnosis, were reviewed to identify cancer diagnoses, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy (RT). MA data were compared with SEER to determine their sensitivity to capture cancer diagnoses and sensitivity/specificity to identify surgeries. The agreement between SEER and Medicare data regarding receipt of chemotherapy and RT was measured by Kappa statistics. A similar comparison to SEER diagnoses/treatments was made using MFFS claims to provide context for the SEER-MA comparison. The study included 186,449 patients, 38% in MA. MA data had 92%+ sensitivity to identify SEER cancer diagnosis and 90%+ sensitivity for cancer surgery. Specificity for surgery was >84%, except for breast cancer (52%). Kappa statistics for agreement between SEER and MA data regarding chemotherapy varied by cancer, 0.61-0.82, and for receipt of RT exceeded 0.75 for all cancers. Results observed for MFFS claims were similar to those in MA data. For 4 common cancers, MA data included most cancer diagnoses and general types of cancer treatment reported in the SEER data. More research is needed to assess additional cancers and detailed treatments.

Decreasing incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma among most racial groups: SEER-22, 2000-2019.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence was rising in the United States. Previously, using data collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program through 2017, we found that overall incidence had begun to decline, although not in Black and American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations. Utilizing expanded SEER data encompassing ~50% of the population, we examined secular trends and demographic differences in HCC incidence through 2019. We included cases of HCC diagnosed in adults aged ≥20 years residing in SEER-22 registry areas. We examined case counts, incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years), annual percent changes (APCs), and calendar years when APCs changed significantly. HCC incidence increased from 5.56 in 2000 to 8.89 in 2009 (APC, 5.17%), then rose more slowly during 2009-2015 (APC, 2.28%). After peaking at 10.03 in 2015, incidence fell to 9.20 in 2019 (APC, -2.26%). In Asian/Pacific Islanders (A/PI), the decline began in 2007 and accelerated in 2015 (APCs: 2007-2015, -1.84%; 2015-2019, -5.80%). In 2014, incidence began to fall in the White (APC: 2014-2019, -1.11%) and Hispanic populations (APC: 2014-2019, -1.72%). In 2016, rates began to fall in Black individuals (APC: 2016-2019, -6.05%). In the AI/AN population, incidence was highest in 2017, although the subsequent decline was not statistically significant. In 2019, population-specific rates were: White, 6.94; Black, 10.74; A/PI, 12.11; AI/AN, 14.56; Hispanic, 15.48. HCC incidence is now decreasing in most US racial/ethnic populations, including among Black individuals. The onset of decline differed among racial/ethnic groups and wide disparities in HCC rates remain.

Outcome of Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia in the United States since the introduction of imatinib therapy-The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, 2000-2019.

Since the introduction of BCR::ABL1 tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) in 2000, the treatment of Philadelphia chromosome (Ph)-positive chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has improved significantly. This study aimed to evaluate Ph-positive CML outcomes in the TKI therapy era, considering factors like age, ethnicity, and income. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, 2857 patients with Ph-positive CML diagnosed from 2000 to 2019 were analyzed. The overall 5-year survival rates in Ph-positive CML increased to above 80%, compared with pre-TKIs historical data reporting 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of less than 50%. The 5-year OS rate was 73% for patients diagnosed in 2000-2004, 82% in 2005-2009, and 78% in 2010-2014; the 4-year OS rate was 83% in 2015-2019. The 5-year OS rate for younger patients (<60years old) was 88% in 2000-2009 and 90% in 2010-2019 (p value .426). In older patients (60+ years old), the 5-year OS rates were 64% and 65%, respectively (p value, .303). Lower household income was associated with inferior survival across the 2000-2019. These results are inferior to European studies where TKIs are universally available and affordable, and relative OS in CML is similar to age-matched normal populations. Although the outcome of Ph-positive CML has improved significantly since 2000, the SEER data still shows differences in outcomes among patient subsets, some anticipated (worse OS in older patients accounted by the relative OS), but others that suggest less than universal access and affordability of this therapy (among poorer patients) in the United States.

A new prognostic model of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on Cloud-least squares support vector machine.

In view of the low accuracy of the prognosis model of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), this study aimed to optimize the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) algorithm to determine the uncertain prognostic factors using a Cloud model, and consequently, to establish a new high-precision prognosis model of ESCC. We studied 4,771 ESCC patients(training samples) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and 635 ESCC patients(validation samples) from the Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (HCDC) database, with the same exclusion criteria and inclusion criteria for both databases, and obtained permission to obtain a research data file in the SEER database from the National Cancer Institute. The independent risk factors were analyzed using the log-rank method, survival curves, univariate and multivariate Cox analysis. Finally, the independent prognostic factors were used to construct the nomogram, random forest and Cloud-LSSVM prognostic models were utilized for validation. The overall median survival time of the SEER database was 14 months (HCDC samples was 46 months), the mean survival time was 26.5 months (HCDC samples was 36.8 months), and the 3-year survival rate was 65.8%. This is because most of the patients with Henan samples are early ESCC, and most of the Seer patients are T3 and T4 people. The multivariate Cox analysis showed that age at diagnosis (P<0.001), sex (P=0.001), race (P=0.002), differentiation grade (P<0.001), pathologic T category (P<0.001), and pathologic M category (P<0.001) were the factors affecting the prognosis of ESCC patients. The SEER data and HCDC database results showed that the accuracy of the Cloud-LSSVM (C-index =0.71, 0.689) model is higher than the differentiation grade (C-index =0.548, 0.506), random forest (C-index =0.649, 0.498), and nomogram (C-index =0.659, 0.563). This new model can realize the unity of the randomness and fuzziness of the Cloud model and utilize the powerful learning and non-linear mapping abilities of LSSVM. Due to the difference of clans between training samples and test samples, the accuracy of prediction is generally not high, but the accuracy of Cloud-LSSVM model is much higher than other models. The new model provides a clear prognostic superiority over the random forest, nomogram, and other models.

Investigating the Efficacy of HPV Vaccines in Preventing Cervical Cancer from 2006 to 2018 in the US: A SEER Data Set Analysis.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most common sexually transmitted infection in the US.The first HPV vaccine was introduced in 2006. There are three different HPV vaccines that commonly target high-risk HPV types. This study compares HPV vaccine efficacy based on alternative endpoints with the most recently available cervical cancer incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program and SEER*Stat statistical software. The incidence of cervical cancer, mined from the most recent April 2021 SEER data set, was stratified according to age and racial groups. Trend analysis reporting cervical cancer incidence percentage change (PC) and annual percentage change (APC) was calculated by SEER*Stat statistical software. A total of 46,583 cases of cervical cancer were reported, with an average of about 3,580 incidents of cervical cancer per year, with an overall decrement of about 60 cases over the period of 12 years. The percentage change according to age and race groups varied between -15.9 among 40- 44 years old (yo) and +13.8 among 30-34 yo, and from -12 among non-Hispanic White women to +13 among Hispanic women. Statistically significant APC was observed for five of the nine age groups and four of the five racial groups. There seems to be little if any, correlation between cervical cancer incidence and the HPV vaccine program in the US. HPV vaccine efficacy based on alternative endpoints, such as nucleic acid testing and cytological, surgical, and seropositivity endpoints, is fair. Therefore, it is important to emphasize such alternative testing and surrogate endpoints.