Surrogate Endpoints In Clinical Trials Research Articles

Spliced-Leader RNA as a Dynamic Marker for Monitoring Viable Leishmania Parasites During and After Treatment.

Accurate detection of viable Leishmania parasites is critical for evaluating visceral leishmaniasis (VL) treatment response at an early timepoint. We compared the decay of kinetoplast DNA (kDNA) and spliced-leader RNA (SL-RNA) in vitro, in vivo, and in a VL patient cohort. An optimized combination of blood preservation and nucleic acid extraction improved efficiency for both targets. SL-RNA degraded more rapidly during treatment than kDNA, and correlated better with microscopic examination. SL-RNA quantitative polymerase chain reaction emerges as a superior method for dynamic monitoring of viable Leishmania parasites. It enables individualized treatment monitoring for improved prognoses and has potential as an early surrogate endpoint in clinical trials.

#2459 Matching-adjusted indirect comparison of eGFR in patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy treated with Nefecon (TRF budesonide) or sparsentan

Abstract Background and Aims Primary immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is an immune-mediated disease that can lead to kidney failure, need for dialysis and kidney transplantation, and early death. IgAN is the most common type of primary glomerulonephritis globally, with an estimated worldwide incidence of 2.5 per 100 000 individuals per year. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is a measure of renal function and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint for clinical trials evaluating kidney function deterioration. In December 2023, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted full approval to Nefecon (marketed as Tarpeyo® by Calliditas Therapeutics), a targeted-release formulation of budesonide, to reduce the loss of kidney function in adults with IgAN at risk of disease progression, based on the Phase 3 NefIgArd clinical trial. In February 2023, sparsentan (marketed as Filspari™ by Travere Therapeutics) was granted accelerated approval by the FDA to reduce proteinuria in adults with primary IgAN at risk of rapid disease progression, generally a urine protein–creatinine ratio (UPCR) ≥1.5 g/g, based on the Phase 3 PROTECT study. Matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) is a widely accepted and relevant methodology for comparing treatments across trials in the absence of head-to-head comparisons. In this analysis, we aimed to compare the effects of Nefecon and sparsentan on kidney function deterioration in patients with IgAN, as assessed by eGFR. Method An anchored MAIC was performed to estimate the relative effect of Nefecon and sparsentan on the absolute eGFR change from baseline at 9, 12 and 24 months, with common comparators of optimized renin–angiotensin system inhibition for NefIgArd and irbesartan for PROTECT. Patient-level data from NefIgArd were used to select a population matched to PROTECT, and the following baseline characteristics were used to determine the weights: mean age (years), sex (% male), race (% white), mean eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2), mean UPCR (g/g), urine albumin–creatinine ratio (UACR) (% with UACR >1.1 g/g), and urinary protein excretion (% with urinary protein excretion >1.8 g/day). Absolute change in eGFR was analyzed using a mixed model for repeated measures (MMRM) method, including baseline, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, 18- and 24-month data, baseline eGFR, baseline eGFR-by-time interaction, treatment, and treatment-by-time interaction. The MAIC weights were incorporated into the MMRM. A Bayesian fixed-effects network meta-analysis was performed on the relative effect from PROTECT and the weighted relative effect from NefIgArd, measured by the estimated absolute change from baseline in eGFR. Results The matching-adjustment of the NefIgArd patient population to the PROTECT population is shown in Table 1. The weighted NefIgArd population exhibits very similar baseline characteristics to the PROTECT population. The effective sample size of the weighted NefIgArd population is 208. Results from the anchored MAIC showed statistically and clinically significant favorable effects of Nefecon versus sparsentan on eGFR for all time points analyzed (Fig. 1). Mean differences in the absolute change in eGFR of 5.68 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% credible interval [Crl] 3.14, 8.20; p < 0.001), 3.48 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% Crl 0.97, 5.97; p = 0.006) and 3.28 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% Crl 0.02, 6.51; p = 0.048) were observed when comparing Nefecon with sparsentan at 9 months vs 36 weeks, 12 months vs 48 weeks, and 24 months vs 106 weeks, respectively. Conclusion After accounting for differences in the patient populations from the NefIgArd and PROTECT trials, the anchored MAIC showed that treatment with Nefecon 16 mg/day for 9 months was associated with greater eGFR benefit compared with continuous treatment with sparsentan 400 mg/day over 2 years, with significant differences observed as early as 9 months after treatment initiation and sustained up to 2-years of follow-up.

The Study of Remyelinating Therapies in Multiple Sclerosis: Visual Outcomes as a Window Into Repair.

Amelioration of disability in multiple sclerosis requires the development of complementary therapies that target neurodegeneration and promote repair. Remyelination is a promising neuroprotective strategy that may protect axons from damage and subsequent neurodegeneration. A review of key literature plus additional targeted search of PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted. There has been a rapid expansion of clinical trials studying putative remyelinating candidates, but further growth of the field is limited by the lack of consensus on key aspects of trial design. We have not yet defined the ideal study population, duration of therapy, or the appropriate outcome measures to detect remyelination in humans. The varied natural history of multiple sclerosis, coupled with the short time frame of phase II clinical trials, requires that we develop and validate biomarkers of remyelination that can serve as surrogate endpoints in clinical trials. We propose that the visual system may be the most well-suited and validated model for the study potential remyelinating agents. In this review, we discuss the pathophysiology of demyelination and summarize the current clinical trial landscape of remyelinating agents. We present some of the challenges in the study of remyelinating agents and discuss current potential biomarkers of remyelination and repair, emphasizing both established and emerging visual outcome measures.

Progression-free survival is a weakly predictive surrogate end-point for overall survival in follicular lymphoma: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Although progression-free survival (PFS) is a commonly used surrogate end-point for clinical trials of follicular lymphoma (FL), no analyses have evaluated the strength of surrogacy for PFS with overall survival (OS). A systematic review was performed and 20 studies (total participants, 10 724) met final inclusion criteria. PFS was weakly associated with OS (correlation coefficient; 0.383, p < 0.001). The coefficient of determination was 0.15 (95% CI: 0.002-0.35) suggesting 15% of OS variance could be explained by changes in PFS. This challenges the role for PFS as a surrogate end-point for clinical trials and drug approvals.

Inter-reader reproducibility of a radiographic grading system for usual interstitial pneumonitis validates its use as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials

AbstractBackgroundThe primary purpose of this study was to assess the interreader reliability of a grading system for UIP based on the quantification of normal lung. This grading system considers each of the following lung regions: right upper and middle lobes, right lower lobe, left upper lobe, and left lower lobe. Each is assigned a grade based on the following: 0: 0% normal lung; 1: 1–49% normal lung; 2: 50–74% normal lung; 3: 75–89% normal lung; 4: 90–99% normal lung; 5: 100% normal lung. The secondary purpose was to compare the grades rendered by non-cardiothoracic subspecialty trained radiologists to grades established by cardiothoracic radiologists, which were considered the gold standard.MethodsChest CT images of patients were obtained by searching the radiology record system for the terms “usual interstitial pneumonia” and “UIP”. Each case was confirmed by radiologist review; pathology was not assessed given the small fraction of cases that underwent biopsy due to the high risk of complications in patients with fibrotic lung disease. Two cardiothoracic radiologists evaluated each CT and reached a consensus grade. Two different radiologists who were not subspecialty trained in cardiothoracic radiology independently graded each case. Spearman correlation analysis was performed to compare the two reader's grades as well as each reader's grade independently to the gold standard score.ResultsOur analysis demonstrated a strongly positive statistically significant interreader correlation coefficient (RS) = 0.7062, P &lt; 0.001. Our analysis of each reader compared to the gold standard demonstrated an Rs = 0.77559, P &lt; 0.001 and an RS = 0.69958, P &lt; 0.001 for readers 1 and 2, respectively, both representing statistically significant strongly positive correlations.ConclusionsThese results demonstrate strong interreader reproducibility and show that radiologists without subspecialty training in cardiothoracic radiology render grades that correlate strongly with those given by cardiothoracic radiologists. These findings support the use of this grading system for UIP both to monitor clinical progression and as a surrogate endpoint for antifibrotic drug trials.

Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials of p16-positive squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx: an individual patient data meta-analysis

The increased incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers has motivated efforts to optimise treatment for these patients with excellent prognosis. Validation of surrogates for overall survival could expedite the investigation of new therapies. We sought to evaluate candidate intermediate clinical endpoints in trials assessing definitive treatment of p16-positive oropharyngeal cancer with chemotherapy or radiotherapy. We did a retrospective review of five multicentre, randomised trials (NRG/RTOG 9003, 0129, 0234, 0522, and 1016) that tested radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy in patients (aged ≥18 years) with p16-positive localised head or neck squamous-cell carcinomas. Eight intermediate clinical endpoints were considered as potential surrogates for overall survival: freedom from local progression, freedom from regional progression, freedom from distant metastasis, freedom from locoregional progression, freedom from any progression, locoregional progression-free survival, progression-free survival, and distant metastasis-free survival. We used a two-stage meta-analytical framework, which requires high correlation between the intermediate clinical endpoint and overall survival at the patient level (condition 1), and high correlation between the treatment effect on the intermediate clinical endpoint and the treatment effect on overall survival (condition 2). For both, an r2 greater than 0·7 was used as criteria for clinically relevant surrogacy. We analysed 1373 patients with oropharyngeal cancer from May 9, 2020, to Nov 22, 2023. 1231 (90%) of patients were men, 142 (10%) were women, and 1207 (88%) were White, with a median age of 57 years (IQR 51-62). Median follow-up was 4·2 years (3·1-5·1). For the first condition, correlating the intermediate clinical endpoints with overall survival at the individual and trial level, the three composite endpoints of locoregional progression-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·91 and r2 0·72), distant metastasis-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·93 and r2 0·83), and progression-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·88 and r2 0·70) were highly correlated with overall survival at the patient level and at the trial-group level. For the second condition, correlating treatment effects of the intermediate clinical endpoints and overall survival, the composite endpoints of locoregional progression-free survival (r2 0·88), distant metastasis-free survival (r2 0·96), and progression-free survival (r2 0·92) remained strong surrogates. Treatment effects on the remaining intermediate clinical endpoints were less strongly correlated with overall survival. We identified locoregional progression-free survival, distant metastasis-free survival, and progression-free survival as surrogates for overall survival in p16-positive oropharyngeal cancers treated with chemotherapy or radiotherapy, which could serve as clinical trial endpoints. NRG Oncology Operations, NRG Oncology SDMC, the National Cancer Institute, Eli Lilly, Aventis, and the University of Michigan.

How the Management of Biochemical Recurrence in Prostate Cancer Will Be Modified by the Concept of Anticipation and Incrementation of Therapy.

Biochemical recurrence (BCR) after primary treatments for prostate cancer (PC) is an extremely heterogeneous phase and at least a stratification into low- and high-risk cases for early progression in metastatic disease is necessary. At present, PSA-DT represents the best parameter to define low- and high-risk BCR PC, but real precision medicine is strongly suggested to define tailored management for patients with BCR. Before defining management, it is necessary to exclude the presence of low-volume metastasis associated with PSA progression using new-generation imaging, preferably with PSMA PET/CT. Low-risk BCR cases should be actively observed without early systemic therapies. Early treatment of low-risk BCR with continuous androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) can produce disadvantages such as the development of castration resistance before the appearance of metastases (non-metastatic castration-resistant PC). Patients with high-risk BCR benefit from early systemic therapy. Even with overall survival (OS) as the primary treatment endpoint, metastasis-free survival (MFS) should be used as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials, especially in long survival stages of the disease. The EMBARK study has greatly influenced the management of high-risk BCR, by introducing the concept of anticipation and intensification through the use of androgen receptor signaling inhibitors (ARSIs) and ADT combination therapy. In high-risk (PSA-DT ≤ 9 months) BCR cases, the combination of enzalutamide with leuprolide significantly improves MFS when compared to leuprolide alone, maintaining an unchanged quality of life in the asymptomatic phase of the disease. The possibility of using ARSIs alone in this early disease setting is suggested by the EMBARK study (arm with enzalutamide alone) with less evidence than with the intensification of the combination therapy. Continued use versus discontinuation of enzalutamide plus leuprolide intensified therapy upon reaching undetectable PSA levels needs to be better defined with further analysis. Real-world analysis must verify the significant results obtained in the context of a phase 3 study.

Urine proteomic signatures of histological class, activity, chronicity, and treatment response in lupus nephritis.

Lupus nephritis (LN) is a pathologically heterogenous autoimmune disease linked to end-stage kidney disease and mortality. Better therapeutic strategies are needed as only 30%-40% of patients completely respond to treatment. Noninvasive biomarkers of intrarenal inflammation may guide more precise approaches. Because urine collects the byproducts of kidney inflammation, we studied the urine proteomic profiles of 225 patients with LN (573 samples) in the longitudinal Accelerating Medicines Partnership in RA/SLE cohort. Urinary biomarkers of monocyte/neutrophil degranulation (i.e., PR3, S100A8, azurocidin, catalase, cathepsins, MMP8), macrophage activation (i.e., CD163, CD206, galectin-1), wound healing/matrix degradation (i.e., nidogen-1, decorin), and IL-16 characterized the aggressive proliferative LN classes and significantly correlated with histological activity. A decline of these biomarkers after 3 months of treatment predicted the 1-year response more robustly than proteinuria, the standard of care (AUC: CD206 0.91, EGFR 0.9, CD163 0.89, proteinuria 0.8). Candidate biomarkers were validated and provide potentially treatable targets. We propose these biomarkers of intrarenal immunological activity as noninvasive tools to diagnose LN and guide treatment and as surrogate endpoints for clinical trials. These findings provide insights into the processes involved in LN activity. This data set is a public resource to generate and test hypotheses and validate biomarkers.

Endpoint Surrogacy in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia: A Pooled Analysis of the German CLL Study Group

Introduction Overall survival (OS) is generally considered the most patient-relevant endpoint in oncology trials, however, its implementation can entail several challenges in the context of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL): 1) The competing survival risk due to comorbidities in the mostly elderly CLL patient population; 2) the high efficacy of targeted therapies warrant longer observation periods or extensive patient recruitment, which can be operationally challenging; 3) the interference with increasingly potent relapse therapies, which can neutralize differences of efficacy of first line regimen. Hence, surrogate endpoints, such as progression-free survival (PFS), overall response or complete response rate (ORR, CR) or minimal residual disease (MRD), are commonly used in CLL research. However, data supporting a correlation between surrogate endpoints and OS in the treatment for CLL is scarce. Here, we present a large, systematic analysis of over 4000 patients (pts) treated in studies of the German CLL Study Group (GCLLSG) to determine the adequacy of surrogate endpoints in clinical trials for pts with CLL. Methods We analysed twelve phase II and phase III trials of the GCLLSG spanning from 1999 to 2022. Only pts receiving first-line therapy were included in the analysis. To determine correlation, the Kaplan-Meier survival function was estimated for both OS and PFS for each study separately. From these functions, the probability of survival (OS and PFS) was estimated at different time points. These pairs of time points were then correlated across the studies, with each pair of probabilities weighted by the number of pts in each corresponding study using Spearman's correlation coefficients. Additionally, we compared OS according to MRD and iwCLL response status at end-of-treatment (for fixed-duration regimens) or end-of-induction-treatment (for MRD-guided treatments) (EO[I]T) using Kaplan-Meier functions calculated from the time point of MRD assessment in peripheral blood. EO(I)T ranged from month 9 to month 15 after treatment initiation, depending on the study protocol. Results The full analysis set comprised 4237 pts. The median observation time was 67 months. Median age was 64 years (range 27 - 90). 45.1% of pts were older than 65 years. 3159 pts (74.6%) had received chemo/chemoimmunotherapy (C/CIT), whereas 1078 (25.4%) were treated with targeted therapies. There were 2114 progressive disease (PD) events and 1211 deaths captured within the trial data. The Spearman's Rho of the estimated survival probabilities for the time points 12/24, 24/36, 36/48 and 60/72 months (PFS/OS) was 0.95, 0.96, 0.94 and 0.92, respectively ( Panel A). Focussing on pts with confirmed OS event (n=1211), the Spearman's Rho between PFS and OS in months was 0.66 for pts receiving chemo/chemoimmunotherapy and 0.88 for pts receiving targeted treatment. ORR and CR rate was 89.8% and 31.5%, respectively. Pts with a CR had a significantly longer PFS (HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.34-0.42, p &amp;lt;0.001) and OS (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.33- 0.46, p &amp;lt;0.001) compared to pts with non-CR. MRD measurements at the EO(I)T were available for 2521 pts (59.5%), of which 39% were treated with targeted agents. Rates of undetectable (&amp;lt;10 -4), intermediate (≥10 -4 and &amp;lt;10 -2) and high MRD (≥10 -2) were 59.1%, 21.7%, 19.3%, respectively, across treatment groups. The median OS for undetectable and intermediate MRD was not reached and 60.7 months for high MRD status ( Panel B). The estimated 60-month OS was 84.6%, 71.3% and 51.1%, respectively. Accordingly, median PFS for uMRD was 61.8 months and 60-month PFS was 52.6%. In pts ≤65 years of age, median OS was not reached with undetectable or intermediate MRD and 70.5 months in pts with high MRD status. In pts &amp;gt;65 years, median OS was not reached for uMRD and was 75.2 and 58.8 months, respectively, for pts with intermediate or high MRD. The corresponding hazard ratios for high versus uMRD status at EO(I)T were 3.33 (95% CI 2.57 - 4.3) in older and 5.89 (4.15 - 8.35) in younger pts. Conclusion In this large analysis of 12 prospective CLL trials, we found a robust correlation between PFS and OS, thereby supporting the use of PFS as a surrogate endpoint in clinical studies. More importantly, the MRD status at EO(I)T was associated with OS across all treatment modalities, demonstrating its utility in identifying pts with potentially dismal outcomes and providing a rationale for MRD-guided treatment strategies.

Oxygen gradient ektacytometry–derived biomarkers are associated with acute complications in sickle cell disease

AbstractWe investigated the potential of the point of sickling (PoS; the pO2 tension at which red cells start to sickle), determined by oxygen gradient ektacytometry to serve as a biomarker associated with the incidence of acute sickle cell disease–related complications in 177 children and 50 adults. In the pediatric cohort, for every 10 mmHg increase in PoS reflecting a greater likelihood of sickling, the likelihood of an individual experiencing >1 type of acute complication increased; the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 1.65. For every 0.1 increase in minimum elongation index (EImin; reflecting improved red blood cell deformability at hypoxia), the aOR was 0.50. In the adult cohort, for every 10 mmHg increase in PoS, we found an aOR of 3.00, although this was not significant after correcting for multiple testing. There was a trend for an association between higher PoS and greater likelihood of vaso-occlusive episodes (VOEs; children aOR, 1.35; adults aOR, 2.22). In children, only EImin was associated with VOEs (aOR, 0.68). When data of both cohorts were pooled, significant associations with PoS and/or EImin were found for all acute complications, independently and when >1 type of acute complication was assessed. These findings indicate that oxygen gradient ektacytometry generates novel biomarkers and provides a rationale for further development of these biomarkers in the assessment of clinical severity, evaluation of novel therapies, and as surrogate clinical trial end points. These biomarkers may be useful in assessing efficacy of novel therapies like pyruvate kinase activators, voxelotor, and L-glutamine.

C-peptide and metabolic outcomes in trials of disease modifying therapy in new-onset type 1 diabetes: an individual participant meta-analysis

Metabolic outcomes in type 1 diabetes remain suboptimal. Disease modifying therapy to prevent β-cell loss presents an alternative treatment framework but the effect on metabolic outcomes is unclear. We, therefore, aimed to define the relationship between insulin C-peptide as a marker of β-cell function and metabolic outcomes in new-onset type 1 diabetes. 21 trials of disease-modifying interventions within 100 days of type 1 diabetes diagnosis comprising 1315 adults (ie, those 18 years and older) and 1396 children (ie, those younger than 18 years) were combined. Endpoints assessed were stimulated area under the curve C-peptide, HbA1c, insulin use, hypoglycaemic events, and composite scores (such as insulin dose adjusted A1c, total daily insulin, U/kg per day, and BETA-2 score). Positive studies were defined as those meeting their primary endpoint. Differences in outcomes between active and control groups were assessed using the Wilcoxon rank test. 6 months after treatment, a 24·8% greater C-peptide preservation in positive studies was associated with a 0·55% lower HbA1c (p<0·0001), with differences being detectable as early as 3 months. Cross-sectional analysis, combining positive and negative studies, was consistent with this proportionality: a 55% improvement in C-peptide preservation was associated with 0·64% lower HbA1c (p<0·0001). Higher initial C-peptide levels and greater preservation were associated with greater improvement in HbA1c. For HbA1c, IDAAC, and BETA-2 score, sample size predictions indicated that 2-3 times as many participants per group would be required to show a difference at 6 months as compared with C-peptide. Detecting a reduction in hypoglycaemia was affected by reporting methods. Interventions that preserve β-cell function are effective at improving metabolic outcomes in new-onset type 1 diabetes, confirming their potential as adjuncts to insulin. We have shown that improvements in HbA1c are directly proportional to the degree of C-peptide preservation, quantifying this relationship, and supporting the use of C-peptides as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials. JDRF and Diabetes UK.

Novel Imaging Approaches toCardiacManifestations of SystemicInflammatoryDiseases: JACC Scientific Statement.

Derangements in the innate and adaptive immune responses observed in systemic inflammatory syndromes contributes to unique elevated atherosclerotic risk and incident cardiovascular disease. Novel multimodality imaging techniques may improve diagnostic precision for the screening and monitoring of disease activity. The integrated application of these technologies lead to earlier diagnosis and noninvasive monitoring of cardiac involvement in systemic inflammatory diseases that will aid in preclinical studies, enhance patient selection, and provide surrogate endpoints in clinical trials, thereby improving clinical outcomes. We review the common cardiovascular manifestations of immune-mediated systemic inflammatory diseases and address the clinical and investigational role of advanced multimodality cardiac imaging.

Abdominal Imaging in ADPKD: Beyond Total Kidney Volume.

In the context of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), measurement of the total kidney volume (TKV) is crucial. It acts as a marker for tracking disease progression, and evaluating the effectiveness of treatment strategies. The TKV has also been recognized as an enrichment biomarker and a possible surrogate endpoint in clinical trials. Several imaging modalities and methods are available to calculate the TKV, and the choice depends on the purpose of use. Technological advancements have made it possible to accurately assess the cyst burden, which can be crucial to assessing the disease state and helping to identify rapid progressors. Moreover, the development of automated algorithms has increased the efficiency of total kidney and cyst volume measurements. Beyond these measurements, the quantification and characterization of non-cystic kidney tissue shows potential for stratifying ADPKD patients early on, monitoring disease progression, and possibly predicting renal function loss. A broad spectrum of radiological imaging techniques are available to characterize the kidney tissue, showing promise when it comes to non-invasively picking up the early signs of ADPKD progression. Radiomics have been used to extract textural features from ADPKD images, providing valuable information about the heterogeneity of the cystic and non-cystic components. This review provides an overview of ADPKD imaging biomarkers, focusing on the quantification methods, potential, and necessary steps toward a successful translation to clinical practice.

Radiographic grading system for usual interstitial pneumonia correlates with mortality and may serve as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials

PurposeUsual interstitial pneumonia (UIP)/ idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IFP) is a relentlessly progressive lung disease with outcomes similar to cancer. We have previously established a radiologic grading system for UIP and demonstrated that it correlates with pulmonary function tests; here we test the hypothesis that it correlates with mortality. Validating a correlation with mortality will demonstrate the utility of this system for monitoring progression over time clinically and in trials of anti-fibrotic agents. MethodsWe searched the radiology record system “Catalyst” to identify cases and reviewed each case to confirm the diagnosis. 94 patients met the inclusion criteria for further assessment. Chest CT grade was determined by consensus of two cardiothoracic radiologists. Data was analyzed to identify the interval between chest CT and death. This interval was correlated with CT grade using Spearman correlation analysis. ResultsFor all cases, chest CT grade and mortality demonstrated a positive correlation of rs = 0.37732, 2-tailed p = 0.00018. We also employed subgroup analysis; for the subgroup with intervals less than or equal to 100 days, there was a positive correlation, rs = 0.48339, 2-tailed p = 0.03602; for the subgroup with an interval greater than 100 days between imaging and death there was a positive correlation, rs = 0.302, 2-tailed p = 0.00846. ConclusionThese data support use of this system for monitoring clinical progression and as a surrogate endpoint for clinical trials. Future work building upon the data presented here will evaluate its utility in clinical trials and develop automated grading.

Changing the role of pCR in breast cancer treatment - an unjustifiable interpretation of a good prognostic factor as a "factor for a good prognosis".

Pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant systemic therapy (NAST) of early breast cancer (EBC) has been recognized as a good prognostic factor in the treatment of breast cancer because of its significant correlation with long-term disease outcome. Based on this correlation, pCR has been accepted by health authorities (FDA, EMA) as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for accelerated drug approval. Moreover, in recent years, we have observed a tendency to treat pCR in routine clinical practice as a primary therapeutic target rather than just one of the pieces of information obtained from clinical trials. These trends in routine clinical practice are the result of recommendations in treatment guidelines, such as the ESMO recommendation "…to deliver all planned (neoadjuvant) treatment without unnecessary breaks, i.e. without dividing it into preoperative and postoperative periods, irrespective of the magnitude of tumor response", because "…this will increase the probability of achieving pCR, which is a proven factor for a good prognosis…". We hypothesize that the above recommendations and trends in routine clinical practice are the consequences of misunderstanding regarding the concept of pCR, which has led to a shift in its importance from a prognostic factor to a desired treatment outcome. The origin of this misunderstanding could be a strong subconscious incentive to achieve pCR, as patients who achieved pCR after NAST had a better long-term outcome compared with those who did not. In this paper, we attempt to prove our hypothesis. We performed a comprehensive analysis of the therapeutic effects of NAST and adjuvant systemic therapy (AST) in EBC to determine whether pCR, as a phenomenon that can only be achieved at NAST, improves prognosis per se. We used published papers as a source of data, which had a decisive influence on the formation of the modern attitude towards EBC therapy. We were unable to find any evidence supporting the use of pCR as a desired therapeutic goal because NAST (reinforced by pCR) was never demonstrated to be superior to AST in any context.

A meta-analysis of GFR slope as a surrogate endpoint for kidney failure.

Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline is causally associated with kidney failure and is a candidate surrogate endpoint for clinical trials of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. Analyses across a diverse spectrum of interventions and populations is required for acceptance of GFR decline as an endpoint. In an analysis of individual participant data, for each of 66 studies (total of 186,312 participants), we estimated treatment effects on the total GFR slope, computed from baseline to 3 years, and chronic slope, starting at 3 months after randomization, and on the clinical endpoint (doubling of serum creatinine, GFR < 15 ml min-1 per 1.73 m2 or kidney failure with replacement therapy). We used a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression model to relate treatment effects on GFR slope with those on the clinical endpoint across all studies and by disease groups (diabetes, glomerular diseases, CKD or cardiovascular diseases). Treatment effects on the clinical endpoint were strongly associated with treatment effects on total slope (median coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.97 (95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) 0.82-1.00)) and moderately associated with those on chronic slope (R2 = 0.55 (95% BCI 0.25-0.77)). There was no evidence of heterogeneity across disease. Our results support the use of total slope as a primary endpoint for clinical trials of CKD progression.

#5504 EXTENDED VALIDATION OF THE IBOX IN REAL LIFE SETTING, DIFFERENT TRANSPLANT SYSTEMS AND CLINICAL TRIALS: THE IBOX EXTENDED TRIAL

Abstract Background and Aims The iBox is a validated prognostication system predicting long-term kidney allograft failure. Recently, it received regulatory endorsement by EMA, for surrogate endpoint for clinical trials. As the iBox system was primarily built using a deep phenotyped cohort, there is a need for proof of validity in extended clinical scenarios, geographic distinct medico-economic cohorts and transplant allocation systems. Method 10,851 transplant recipients were included from 17 academic medical centers from France, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Finland, United States, Brazil and Argentina. We applied to these cohorts the iBox algorithm that integrates eight independent prognostic factors including the time from transplantation to risk evaluation, functional parameters (eGFR, proteinuria), allograft histological lesions (IFTA, g+ptc, i+t, cg Banff scores), and circulating anti-HLA DSA. We stratified the performances of the iBox according to several real-life scenarios, including: 1) iBox + different eGFR formulas (MDRD186, MDRD175, CKD-Epi); 2) iBox + urinary dipstick; 3) iBox Functional + Structural (absence of DSA measurements); 4) iBox functional + Immunological (absence of histology); 5) iBox in response to treatment in T-cell mediated rejection (TCMR); 6) iBox for in response to treatment antibody mediated rejection (ABMR) clinical trials. The performances of the iBox system were assessed with the discrimination (C-index) and calibration. Results The derivation cohort included 4,000 recipients from France, and the international external validation cohort included 6,851 recipients from Europe (France, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Finland n = 4,643), the United States (n = 1,537) and South America (Brazil, Argentina n = 671). The mean recipient age was 50.26 years (14.05) with a median follow-up after evaluations of 5.41 years [IQR: 3.26 to 7]. 1336 patients (12.31%) lost their graft during the study follow-up. The performances of the iBox were confirmed in the different real-life setting with the following C-Index: 1) iBox + different eGFR formulas (MDRD186, MDRD175, CKD-Epi) 0.81; 2) iBox + urinary dipstick 0.80; 3) iBox Functional + Structural (histology) 0.80 (derivation) and 0.84 (validation); 4) iBox functional + Immunological 0.80 (derivation) and 0.83 (validation); 5) iBox in response to treatment in T-cell mediated rejection 0.81; 6) iBox for in response to treatment antibody mediated rejection trials 0.81. The score showed an accurate calibration in every scenario. Conclusion The iBoxEXTENDED trial confirms in various medico-economic settings the performances transportability and surrogacy of the iBox system, further reinforcing its use as a surrogate end point for clinical trials including TCMR and ABMR.

Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis

Histologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD. This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0-4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score ≥15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0-2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: <10 vs 10 to <20 vs ≥20 kPa; FIB-4: <1·3 vs 1·3 to ≤2·67 vs >2·67; NFS: <-1·455 vs -1·455 to ≤0·676 vs >0·676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226. Of 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44·7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44-63), and 1161 [46·1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33-91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5·8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0·72 (95% CI 0·62-0·81) for histology, 0·76 (0·70-0·83) for LSM-VCTE, 0·74 (0·64-0·82) for FIB-4, and 0·70 (0·63-0·80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression. Simple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases. Innovative Medicines Initiative 2.

Assessment of Surrogate End Point Trends in Clinical Trials to Approve Oncology Drugs From 2001 to 2020 in Japan

A surrogate end point (SEP) is an end point used in clinical trials as an alternative for measuring the true clinical benefit. The use of SEPs in trials shortens their duration. To investigate the use of SEPs in clinical trials to support the approval of anticancer drugs and to determine whether confirmatory studies that use overall survival (OS) as an end point are being conducted in Japan. In this cross-sectional study, drug approvals and background information were obtained from publicly available information, such as the Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency website, for anticancer drugs approved in Japan from January 2001 to December 2020. Data analysis was performed from September 2021 to March 2022. Characteristics of approved oncology drugs in Japan, end points for pivotal clinical trials, and outcomes of confirmatory trials using OS as an end point following drug approval. There were 299 anticancer drugs approved in Japan during the study period. Of these, 142 (47.5%) were molecular-targeted drugs, the most common of which targeted non-small cell lung cancer. There were 111 (37.1%) anticancer drugs with orphan designation. From 2001 to 2005, OS was used as an end point in 1 approval (3.6%); however, from 2006 to 2020, OS was used in 86 approvals (31.7%). Of the 212 anticancer drugs approved on the basis of SEPs, confirmatory studies with OS as the end point were conducted for only 37 approvals (17.5%); for the remaining 175 approvals, studies are under way for 35 approvals (16.5%), were waivered for 75 approvals (35.4%), and were not conducted for 65 approvals (30.7%). Furthermore, in 20 drug approvals (9.4%), the conducted confirmatory studies were not effective in determining the OS, but the drugs were approved following re-examination. The findings of this study suggest that starting from 2005, the use of OS as an end point has increased in studies supporting the approval of anticancer drugs in Japan. However, even after 2005, approximately two-thirds of these approvals were SEP based. Postmarketing surveillance studies of the true end points are necessary to validate the use of SEPs.

Surrogate Endpoints in Clinical Trials

Surrogate markers are often used in clinical trials settings when obtaining a final outcome to evaluate the effectiveness of a treatment requires a long wait, is expensive to obtain, or both. Formal definitions of surrogate marker quality resulting from a large variety of estimation approaches have been proposed over the years. I review this work, with a particular focus on approaches that use the causal inference paradigm, as these conceptualize a good marker as one in the causal pathway between the treatment and outcome. I also focus on efforts to evaluate the risk of a surrogate paradox, a damaging situation where the surrogate is positively associated with the outcome, and the causal effect of the treatment on the surrogate is in a helpful direction, but the ultimate causal effect of the treatment on the outcome is harmful. I then review some recent work in robust surrogate marker estimation and conclude with a discussion and suggestions for future research.