Surge Interaction Research Articles

Tide–surge interaction observed at Singapore and the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a semi-empirical model

Abstract. Tide–surge interaction plays a substantial role in determining the characteristics of coastal water levels over shallow regions. We study the tide–surge interaction observed at seven tide gauges along Singapore and the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia, focusing on the timing of extreme non-tidal residuals relative to tidal high water. We propose a modified statistical framework using a no-tide–surge interaction (no-TSI) null distribution that accounts for asymmetry and variation in the duration of tidal cycles. We find that our modified framework can mitigate false-positive signals of tide–surge interaction in this region. We find evidence of tide–surge interaction at all seven locations, with characteristics varying smoothly along the coastline: the highest non-tidal residuals are found to occur most frequently before tidal high water in the south, both before and after tidal high water in the central region, and after tidal high water in the north. We also propose a semi-empirical model to investigate the effects of tidal-phase alteration, which is one mechanism of tide–surge interaction. Results of our semi-empirical model reveal that tidal-phase alteration caused by storm surges is substantial enough to generate significant change in the timing of extreme non-tidal residuals. To mitigate the effect of tidal-phase alteration on return level estimation, skew surge can be used. We conclude that (1) tide–surge interaction influences coastal water levels in this region, (2) our semi-empirical model provides insight into the mechanism of tidal-phase alteration, and (3) our no-TSI distribution should be used for similar studies globally.

Wave–Tide–Surge Interaction Modulates Storm Waves in the Bohai Sea

Typhoons, extratropical cyclones, and cold fronts cause strong winds leading to storm surges and waves in the Bohai Sea. A wave–flow coupled numerical model is established for storm events observed in 2022 caused by three weather systems, to investigate how storm waves are modulated by wave–tide–surge interaction (WTSI). Wave response is basically controlled by water level change in coastal areas, where bottom friction or breaking dominates the energy dissipation, and determined by the current field in deep water by altering whitecapping. Wave height increases/decreases are induced by positive/negative water level or obtuse/acute wave–current interaction angle, leading to six types of field patterns for significant wave height (Hs) responses. For the three storm events, Hs basically changed within ±5% in central deep water, while the maximum increase/decrease reached 160%/−60% in the coastal area of Laizhou Bay/Liaodong Bay. Based on maximum Hs and its occurrence time, WTSI modulation is manifested as the superposition effect of wave–tide and wave–surge interactions in both space and time scales, and occurrence time depends more on tide than surge for all three storms. The enhancement/abatement of WTSI modulation happens for consistent/opposite changing trends of wave–tide and wave–surge interaction, with the ultimate result showing the side with a higher effect.

A Numerical Study on Storm Surge Dynamics Caused by Tropical Depression 29W in the Pahang Region

Amid mounting concerns about climate change’s impact on coastal areas, this study investigates storm surge dynamics induced by Tropical Depression 29W (TD 29W) using the MIKE 21 model. Comprehending the complex mechanisms behind storm surges is crucial considering gaps in understanding their combined influences, including tide–surge interactions, varying typhoon parameters, and changing storm tracks. The impacts of climate change, including accelerating sea level rise and its correlation with storm surge magnitudes, require detailed investigations for effective disaster management in vulnerable coastal communities. Through precise calibration, matching simulations with tidal gauge stations, this research uncovers the intricate interplay between landfall timing, diverse storm tracks, wind intensities, and the amplifying impact of rising sea levels. Findings indicate surge residuals ranging from −0.03m to 0.01m during TD 29W’s landfall, with higher surge residuals during rising tide phases. Moreover, an increase in TD 29W’s maximum wind speed moderately influences positive surges while significantly amplifying negative surge heights by 68% to 92% with wind speed increments. An analysis of typhoon track variations emphasizes the vulnerability of the Pahang coast to changing storm dynamics, underlining the need for tailored resilience strategies. Projections suggest a significant surge height increase by the year 2100, emphasizing the urgency of adaptive measures for the region.

Tide–Surge Interactions in Lingdingyang Bay, Pearl River Estuary, China: a Case Study from Typhoon Mangkhut, 2018

Tide–Surge Interactions in Lingdingyang Bay, Pearl River Estuary, China: a Case Study from Typhoon Mangkhut, 2018

The Impact of Coastline and Bathymetry Changes on the Storm Tides in Zhejiang Coasts

Coastal evolutions are expected to have a significant impact on storm tides, disproportionately aggravating coastal flooding. In this study, we utilize a nested storm tide model to provide an integrated investigation of storm tide responses to changes in coastline and bathymetry along the Zhejiang coasts. We selected coastline and bathymetry data from 1980 and 2016, as well as data from three typical typhoon events (i.e., Winnie, Haikui, and Chan-hom) for simulating the storm surge processes. The results indicate that changes in the coastline and bathymetry from 1980 to 2016 have resulted in an increase in storm tides in the northern part and a decrease in the central part of Zhejiang. Specifically, storm tides in Hangzhou Bay have increased significantly, with an average increase of about 0.3 m in the maximum storm tides primarily attributed to coastline changes. On the contrary, in smaller basins like Sanmen Bay, while reclamation itself has reduced peak storm surges, rapid siltation has consequently exacerbated the storm surge. By decomposing storm tides into astronomical tides and storm surges, we discovered that the change in tidal levels was twice as significant as the surge change. Moreover, the nonlinear tide–surge interaction was nearly four times that of the pure surge, significantly contributing to storm surge variation. Alterations in the momentum balance reveal that the water depth-induced bottom friction and wind stress increase contributes to the local enlargement of storm tides at the bay head, while the coastline changes exaggerate nearshore storm tides through an increase in the advection term.

Estimating water levels caused by a tropical storm along the Bangladesh coast: A numerical approach

In this study, water levels resulting from the dynamic interaction of tide and surge are estimated by solving a 2-D vertically integrated shallow water equations numerically. To solve the equations on the specific 2-D grid, the explicit Leapfrog scheme is implemented, adopting a staggered Arakawa C-grid. The domain's complex land-sea interface is approximated through the stair-step method in order to employ the finite difference technique. To incorporate the complexity of the domain with a considerably high accuracy and to reduce computational cost, one-way nested grid models are embraced. The Meghna River freshwater discharge is incorporated into the innermost child model. A stable tidal regime over the region of interest is generated by applying the four vital tidal constituents, namely M2 (principal lunar semidiurnal), S2 (principal solar semidiurnal), O1 (principal lunar diurnal) and K1 (luni-solar diurnal) in the southern open boundary of the outermost model. This previously effectuated tidal regime is used as the initial state of the sea in getting total water levels due to the dynamic interaction of tide and surge. Numerical experiments are performed with the storm AILA that hit the coast of Bangladesh on May 25, 2009. The simulated results are found to closely match observed and reported data.

COMPOUND URBAN COASTAL FLOOD MODELING: INTEGRATING TIDE, WAVES, PRECIPITATION AND HYDRAULIC INFRASTRUCTURE

Compound coastal flooding considers the joint impacts of marine and hydrologic interactions and has recently been identified as an international research priority. Along the US West Coast, winter storms often bring high marine water levels along with energetic waves and precipitation. Hydrodynamic models have been widely used to estimate flood impacts, including extreme estuarine water levels in compound events (e.g., riverine discharge-tide-storm surge interactions), and produced satisfactory results. However, few studies further consider overland flow routing and high-resolution flood mapping in highly urbanized, low-lying coastal areas. Here, an integrated Delft3D-FM based numerical modeling framework is used to explicitly resolve multi-pathway flood processes (i.e., high marine water levels, waves overtopping, precipitation) and infrastructure (e.g., seawalls, storm drains, artificial dunes).

SUITABLE BOUNDARY LOCATION IDENTIFCATION FOR RAINFALL-RUNOFF AND SURGE MODEL COUPLING TO EVALUATE COMPOUND FLOOD HAZARDS IN COASTAL REGIONS

Flooding in many coastal regions is exacerbated due to complex interactions of multiple flood drivers such as rainfall-runoff and coastal surge which can occur simultaneously or sequentially during storm events, leading to compound flooding hazards. The Texas Gulf Coasts (USA) are especially vulnerable from compound flooding due to frequent occurrence of tropical storms which bring strong winds to drive storm surge and heavy rainfall to generate inland flooding. Large scale studies {Coastal Texas Restoration and Protection Study (CTX, 2021), Texas General Land Office’s Texas River Basin Study, Base Level Engineering Study} are being conducted by state and federal agencies for flood hazard assessment and for development of mitigation and abatement strategies for reducing this risk and increasing community resilience. Traditionally, large scale storm surge models do not account for runoff contributions to water levels in the interior of their domain. Riverine models for their part use either normal depth or mean high water levels to assign downstream boundary conditions within tidally influenced area, thus ignoring effects of storm surge. In this Planning Assistance to States (PAS) study, located in the Lower Clear Creek and Dickinson Bayou watersheds (Texas, USA), we have evaluated rainfall-runoff and storm surge interactions to determine suitable locations to use as model boundary conditions for exchanging data between rainfall-runoff and surge models under compound flooding conditions.

Adding sea ice effects to a global operational model (NEMO v3.6) for forecasting total water level: approach and impact

Abstract. In operational flood forecast systems, the effect of sea ice is typically neglected or parameterized solely in terms of ice concentration. In this study, an efficient way of adding ice effects to the global total water level prediction systems, via the ice–ocean stress, is described and evaluated. The approach features a novel, consistent representation of the tidal relative ice–ocean velocities, based on a transfer function derived from ice and ocean tidal ellipses given by an external ice–ocean model. The approach and its impact are demonstrated over four ice seasons in the Northern Hemisphere, using in situ observations and model predictions. We show that adding ice effects helps the model reproduce most of the observed seasonal modulations in tides (up to 40 % in amplitude and 50∘ in phase for M2) in the Arctic and Hudson Bay. The dominant driving mechanism for the seasonal modulations is shown to be the under-ice friction, acting in areas of shallow water (less than 100 m) and its accompanied large shifts in the amphidromes (up to 125 km). Important contributions from baroclinicity and tide–surge interaction due to ice–ocean stress are also found in the Arctic. Both mechanisms generally reinforce the seasonal modulations induced by the under-ice friction. In forecast systems that neglect or rely on simple ice concentration parameterizations, storm surges tend to be overestimated. With the inclusion of ice–ocean stress, surfaces stresses are significantly reduced (up to 100 % in landfast ice areas). Over the four ice seasons covered by this study, corrections up to 1.0 m to the overestimation of surges are achieved. Remaining limitations regarding the overestimated amphidrome shifts and insufficient ice break-up during large storms are discussed. Finally, the anticipated trend of increasing risk of coastal flooding in the Arctic, associated with decreasing ice and its profound impact on tides and storm surges, is briefly discussed.

Multi-timescale dynamics of extreme river flood and storm surge interactions in relation with large-scale atmospheric circulation: Case of the Seine estuary

The present work investigates the multi-timescale dynamics of extreme fluvial-surge interactions (EFS) in a river-tide environment, in the case of the Seine estuary. This environment is considered an excellent natural laboratory to analyze river-surge interaction because of its time-varying flow and the available water-level records provided by tide gauges along the estuary. A spectral approach has been used to investigate the multi-timescale changes in EFS, governed by fluvial and marine contributions, in relation to the historical events of flood-storm concomitance and the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The spectral components of EFS, calculated at five stations along the estuary, highlighted a series of variability modes varying from the inter-month (∼3–6 months) to the inter-annual (∼2-, ∼3-5- and ∼6-8-years) scales and exhibiting, respectively, 55% and 20% of the total variability. The contribution of marine and fluvial effects in the EFS varies along the estuary and according to the timescale from seasons, when the interaction is governed by tidal deformation, to years. The connection of the historical flood-storm events with the EFS signal changes in their spectral signature according to their severity as well as the energetic physical drivers acting in each event: events with high return period are manifested at larger scales while events with low return period are limited to small scales.Finally, the examination of the physical relationships between the EFS and the global climate mechanisms has demonstrated the key role of the Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) acting, respectively, in anti-phase at ∼1-2-yr and in phase at scales larger than 3-yr. The signature of the climate drivers operates differently according to the timescale; they are identified within the ∼80% of the inter-annual EFS. This signature is more significative since the 2000s when the increase in the NAO generates a rise in EFS variability. ∼20% of EFS would be related to the non-linear effects of the timescale interactions and other local mechanisms operating at such scales.This finding highlights the non-stationarity of the multi-timescale dynamics of marine storms and fluvial floods, and the relevance of the climate connection use for assessing the compound multi-hazard events at large-scales.

The impact of nonlinear tide–surge interaction on satellite radar altimeter-derived tides

Both empirical and assimilative global ocean tidal models are significantly more accurate in the deep ocean than in shelf and coastal waters. In this study, we answered whether this is due to the quality of the models used to reduce tide and surge or the general approach to treat tide and surge as two separate components of the water level obtained from stand-alone models, which ignores the nonlinear tide–surge interaction. In doing so, we used tide gauge observations as partially synthetic altimeter time series, tide–surge water-level time series obtained with the 2D Dutch Continental Shelf Model – Flexible Mesh (DCSM), and tide and surge water-level time series obtained using the DCSM, FES2014 (FES) and the Dynamic Atmospheric Correction (DAC) product. Expressed in the root-sum-square (RSS) of the eight main tidal constituents, we obtained a reduction % when removing the DCSM tide–surge water levels compared to when we removed the sum of the DCSM tide and DCSM surge water levels. The RSS obtained in the latter case was only 3.3% lower than with FES and DAC. We conclude that the lower tidal estimates accuracy in shelf-coastal waters derives from the missing nonlinear tide–surge interactions.

Characteristics of astronomical tides and their modulation on sea level extremes along the Indian coast

In this study, long-term hourly sea-level records from 18 tide gauge stations during 1972–2007 were analyzed to study the characteristics of astronomical tides, sea-level trends, and extremes around India's mainland. The de-tided signals were used to estimate these parameters and study tide and surge interaction. The observed sea level depicts significant variability in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual time scales. Semidiurnal tides are the most dominant among the high-frequency tides, with an amplitude of up to 2.5 m for M2 and 0.75 m for S2 tides in the northwestern and northeastern continental shelf and reduced to 0.25 m in the south. The amplitude of diurnal tides (O1 and K1)is relatively weak (<0.25m) at all the stations. The annual harmonics dominate the seasonal cycle, with an amplitude of 0.7 m at Garden Reach in the northeastern continental shelf, decreases to 0.15 m at Tuticorin in the south, and remains small (<0.1 m) along the west coast of India. The amplitude of lunar nodal and perigee tides are significantly high (up to 25 mm) at several stations compared to the long-term global mean sea level trend (∼3.3 mm/y). The sea level trend is significantly positive (up to 4 mm/y) for Sagar Island, Diamond Harbor, Haldia, and Mangalore; negative (up to −3 mm/y) for Garden Reach and Okha, and in-significant (0.5 mm/y) for Mumbai, Vishakhapatnam, and Paradip. Interaction between the semidiurnal tides and surges was intense at most stations, with a high probability of surge peaks during the fall-tide conditions in the northern continental shelf, at rising-tidal conditions for the south-eastern and western peninsula, and co-occurring at high tide for southern stations. The degree of tide-surge interaction increases from south to north with an increase in tidal range and significant nodal and perigee tidal modulation.

An Analysis of Track Effects on Storm Surge Simulation

This study investigates the effects of cyclone tracks on water levels during storm surges along the coast of Bangladesh. A numerical hydrodynamical model in Cartesian coordinates has been developed, where the developed equations are solved by a semi-implicit finite difference method. The boundary fitted grid technique is employed to rectangularized the physical domain. Along the north-east corner of the model, the Meghna River fresh water discharge is taken into account. A stable tidal regime over the region of interest is generated with the help of four major tidal constituents, namely M_2 (principal lunar semi diurnal), S_2 (principal solar semi diurnal), O_1 (principal lunar diurnal) and K_1 (principal lunar diurnal) along the southern open boundary of the outermost model. This previously generated tidal regime is used as the initial state of sea in order to obtain water levels due to the nonlinear interaction of tide and surge. Numerical experiments are made with the severe storm April 1991 and some hypothetical storm tracks. The simulated results with the real track are found to be in a good agreement with some observed and some reported data. The water levels are found to be greatly influenced by the hypothetical cyclone tracks.

Tornado Heading and Speed Changes Associated with Large and Intense Internal Rear-Flank Surges in Three Supercells

Abstract Tornado motion changes occurring with major internal rear-flank momentum surges are examined in three significant tornado-producing supercells. The analysis primarily uses fixed-site Doppler radar data, but also utilizes in situ and videographic observations when available. In the cases examined, the peak lowest-level remotely sensed or in situ rear-flank surge wind speeds ranged from 48 to at least 63 m s−1. Contemporaneous with major surges impacting the tornadoes and their parent low-level mesocyclones, longer-duration tornado heading changes were leftward and ranged from 30° to 55°. In all cases, the tornado speed increased substantially upon surge impact, with tornado speeds approximately doubling in two of the events. A storm-relative change in the hook echo orientation accompanied the major surges and provided a signal that a marked leftward heading change for an ongoing tornado was under way. Concurrent with the surge interaction, the hook echo tip and associated low-level mesocyclone turned leftward while also moving in a storm-relative downshear direction. The major rear-flank internal surges influenced tornado motion such that a generally favorable storm updraft-relative position was maintained. In all cases, the tornado lasted well beyond (≥21 min) the time of the surge-associated left turn with no evident marked loss of intensity until well down-track of the turn. The local momentum balance between outflow and inflow that bounds the tornado or its parent circulation, especially the directionality evolution of the bounding momentum, is the most apparent explanation for tornado down-track or off-track accelerations in the featured events.

Climatic Factors Associated with Heavy Rainfall in Northern Vietnam in Boreal Spring

Heavy rainfall occurs frequently in Northern Vietnam and causes severe floods and landslides. Heavy rainfall not only appears in rainy seasons (May–October) but also regularly occurs in spring (February–April). This study is devoted to identifying the climatic factors that influence the variation of rainfall, particularly heavy rainfall in Northern Vietnam in the dry season. Analysis based on the observed rainfall, PERSIANN satellite rainfall data, and ERA5 reanalysis reveals that spring should not be considered a dry season, but the first period of a rainy season in Northern Vietnam. Spring rainfall is caused by collaborative effects of cold surge, subtropical high, and the deepening of the low pressure over the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau and Bay of Bengal (BOB). Based on the composite analysis of heavy rainfall events in Northern Vietnam in the transitional season, two heavy rainfall patterns are recognized. The first is related to the southward movement of a meso-scale vortex and the cold surge, while the second one is induced by the interaction of cold surge and the deepening of an upper-level trough.

Potential impacts of flood risk with rising sea level in Macau: Dynamic simulation from historical Typhoon Mangkhut (2018)

Defence engineering infrastructures reduce casualties and economic losses, and alleviate damage, and respond to climate-change exacerbated coastal flooding. This study quantitatively estimated the relative sea level rise (SLR) in the Pearl River Estuary and investigated the potential upper and lower bounds of the maximum inundation depths in Macau City induced by Typhoon Mangkhut (2018). Extreme tidal levels are assumed to be coincident with the pre-landfall hour of Mangkhut during its movement towards the coast. Under both SLR scenarios, inundations caused by astronomical tides indicate a significantly shortened return period of flood events with a rising sea level. The tidal barrier with a crest elevation designed according to Typhoon Hato (2017) can effectively protect the Inner Harbor region from flooding by astronomical tides or Mangkhut-like typhoons occurring at low tides; however this effectiveness is lost under high tides. The results indicate the dominant role of tidal timing at inundation depths, which is also influenced by modulated surge heights owing to nonlinear tide–wave–surge and SLR–surge interactions. In spite of decreased surges affected by SLR around Macau, proper engineering countermeasures should be planned to cope with severe inundation by compounding unfavorable factors.

Effect of Barrier Height on Magnitude and Character of Hurricane Harvey Washover Fans, Matagorda Peninsula, Texas, U.S.A.

Williams, H.F.L. and Rains, B.J., 2022. Effect of barrier height on magnitude and character of Hurricane Harvey washover fans, Matagorda Peninsula, Texas, U.S.A. Journal of Coastal Research, 38(1), 133–139. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. This study uses topographic profiles, washover fan volumes, and shoreline retreat rates to explore relationships between barrier height, erosion, and storm washover sedimentation. Pre- and post-Hurricane Harvey topographic profiles were created along 15 transects using Bare Earth LIDAR (2016) and transit level surveys (2019). Washover fan thicknesses and areas were measured to estimate washover fan volumes. An inverse relationship was found between washover fan volume and pre- and poststorm barrier heights. One section of shoreline had a prestorm height of about 3 m, which almost completely blocked overwash, but may have contributed to a large increase in shoreline erosion. In contrast, a section of shoreline with a low prestorm barrier generated relatively large washover fans, but experienced lower shoreline retreat and was the only section to experience beach and dune recovery in the year after landfall. Shoreline retreat was further quantified between 2014 and 2018 using Google Earth imagery and LIDAR data from 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2018 to track migration of the shoreline. The entire shoreline in the study area is undergoing relatively rapid retreat, but the results suggest that Hurricane Harvey increased erosional retreat rates by up to 195%. The Colorado River Jetty borders the study area and may have acted as a barrier to wave erosion, contributing to enhanced marsh aggradation at marsh sites in close proximity to the jetty and promoting shoreline recovery in the poststorm period. The research results provide valuable information on the interaction of hurricane storm surge with natural and anthropogenic barriers, beach and dune erosion, and marsh aggradation along the coast of Texas.

Towards using state-of-the-art climate models to help constrain estimates of unprecedented UK storm surges

Abstract. Our ability to quantify the likelihood of present-day extreme sea level (ESL) events is limited by the length of tide gauge records around the UK, and this results in substantial uncertainties in return level curves at many sites. In this work, we explore the potential for a state-of-the-art climate model, HadGEM3-GC3, to help refine our understanding of present-day coastal flood risk associated with extreme storm surges, which are the dominant driver of ESL events for the UK and wider European shelf seas. We use a 483-year present-day control simulation from HadGEM3-GC3-MM (1/4∘ ocean, approx. 60 km atmosphere in mid-latitudes) to drive a north-west European shelf seas model and generate a new dataset of simulated UK storm surges. The variable analysed is the skew surge (the difference between the high water level and the predicted astronomical high tide), which is widely used in analysis of storm surge events. The modelling system can simulate skew surge events comparable to the catastrophic 1953 North Sea storm surge, which resulted in widespread flooding, evacuation of 32 000 people, and hundreds of fatalities across the UK alone, along with many hundreds more in mainland Europe. Our model simulations show good agreement with an independent re-analysis of the 1953 surge event at the mouth of the river Thames. For that site, we also revisit the assumption of skew surge and tide independence. Our model results suggest that at that site for the most extreme surges, tide–surge interaction significantly attenuates extreme skew surges on a spring tide compared to a neap tide. Around the UK coastline, the extreme tail shape parameters diagnosed from our simulation correlate very well (Pearson's r greater than 0.85), in terms of spatial variability, with those used in the UK government's current guidance (which are diagnosed from tide gauge observations), but ours have smaller uncertainties. Despite the strong correlation, our diagnosed shape parameters are biased low relative to the current guidance. This bias is also seen when we replace HadGEM3-GC3-MM with a reanalysis, so we conclude that the bias is likely associated with limitations in the shelf sea model used here. Overall, the work suggests that climate model simulations may prove useful as an additional line of evidence to inform assessments of present-day coastal flood risk.

Evaluation of a global total water level model in the presence of radiational S[formula omitted] tide

The development of a computationally efficient scheme for predicting the global distribution of total water level (TWL) is discussed. The ocean model is barotropic, has a horizontal grid spacing of 1/12°, and is based on the NEMO modeling framework. It is forced by the gravitational potential and hourly atmospheric fields for 2008. Hourly time spacing was required to resolve the S2 tide in global air pressure and wind. The predicted tide in water deeper than 400 m was nudged to TPXO8 “observations” of tidal elevation or current using a scheme called tidal nudging (Kodaira et al., 2019). The benefit of nudging horizontal velocity in the momentum equation, compared to sea level in the continuity equation, is discussed. Tidal nudging is shown to improve tidal predictions of sea level at the coast, particularly at the S2 tidal frequency. The predicted radiational S2 tide in sea level forced solely by the S2 tide in global air pressure reaches amplitudes exceeding 80 cm. Decreasing the time spacing of the air pressure forcing from 1 h to 3 h reduces the S2 amplitude in air pressure by a factor of 0.82, consistent with expectations based on Fourier analysis. This highlights the importance of using hourly atmospheric forcing when predicting the global sea level response to atmospheric forcing. The radiational S2 tide in sea level is subject to strong nonlinear interaction with the gravitational tide, leading to a pronounced attenuation of the radiational S2 tide. The attenuation is explained by an increase in effective bottom friction at the S2 frequency due to the presence of the gravitational tide. Four schemes for predicting TWL are evaluated to quantify the impact of tidal nudging and nonlinear interaction of tide and surge. Using TWLs observed by 304 coastal tide gauges, we show it is necessary to include both tidal nudging and nonlinear interaction. Plans for the further development of an operational flood forecast system for the Canadian coast, based on the above model, are discussed.

Undular surges interaction with a vertical wall

The interaction of nonbreaking and breaking undular surges with a vertical wall is experimentally investigated. The results for nonbreaking undular surges demonstrate that the maximum run-ups agree quantitatively with the predictions of solitary wave theory. During the run-up of a nonbreaking undular surge, the maximum dynamic pressure on a vertical wall occurs at an elevation in the vicinity of the quiescent water level. Both the maximum dynamic pressure and maximum wall force can be accurately estimated from the wave amplitude of the incident surge. By contrast, the breaking surge interactions result in significant amplifications of maximum run-ups and tend to yield extremely high impact pressures at elevations significantly above the still water level. The experimental results indicate the occurrence of extreme impact events for normalized maximum pressures exceeding 1.13. Based on these experimental results, a numerical method is employed to discuss the analogy between a nonbreaking undular surge and a solitary wave. In general, the present results show that the leading front of a nonbreaking undular surge during its initial wave evolution can be satisfactorily described using the solitary wave equation.