Surface Mass Balance Gradient Research Articles

Surface Mass-Balance Gradients From Elevation and Ice Flux Data in the Columbia Basin, Canada

The mass-balance—elevation relation for a given glacier is required for many numerical models of ice flow. Direct measurements of this relation using remotely-sensed methods are complicated by ice dynamics, so observations are currently limited to glaciers where surface mass-balance measurements are routinely made. We test the viability of using the continuity equation to estimate annual surface mass balance between flux-gates in the absence of in situ measurements, on five glaciers in the Columbia Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. Repeat airborne laser scanning surveys of glacier surface elevation, ice penetrating radar surveys and publicly available maps of ice thickness are used to estimate changes in surface elevation and ice flux. We evaluate this approach by comparing modeled to observed mass balance. Modeled mass-balance gradients well-approximate those obtained from direct measurement of surface mass balance, with a mean difference of +6.6 ± 4%. Regressing modeled mass balance, equilibrium line altitudes are on average 15 m higher than satellite-observations of the transient snow line. Estimates of mass balance over flux bins compare less favorably than the gradients. Average mean error (+0.03 ± 0.07 m w.e.) between observed and modeled mass balance over flux bins is relatively small, yet mean absolute error (0.55 ± 0.18 m w.e.) and average modeled mass-balance uncertainty (0.57 m w.e.) are large. Mass conservation, assessed with glaciological data, is respected (when estimates are within 1σ uncertainties) for 84% of flux bins representing 86% of total glacier area. Uncertainty on ice velocity, especially for areas where surface velocity is low (<10 m a−1) contributes the greatest error in estimating ice flux. We find that using modeled ice thicknesses yields comparable modeled mass-balance gradients relative to using observations of ice thickness, but we caution against over-interpreting individual flux-bin mass balances due to large mass-balance residuals. Given the performance of modeled ice thickness and the increasing availability of ice velocity and surface topography data, we suggest that similar efforts to produce mass-balance gradients using modern high-resolution datasets are feasible on larger scales.

The regional-scale surface mass balance of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, over the period 2005–2014, derived from airborne radar soundings and neutron probe measurements

Abstract. We derive recent surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from airborne radar observations along the iSTAR traverse (2013, 2014) at Pine Island Glacier (PIG), West Antarctica. Ground-based neutron probe measurements provide information of snow and firn density with depth at 22 locations and were used to date internal annual reflection layers. The 2005 layer was traced for a total distance of 2367 km to determine annual mean SMB for the period 2005–2014. Using complementary SMB estimates from two regional climate models, RACMO2.3p2 and MAR, and a geostatistical kriging scheme, we determine a regional-scale SMB distribution with similar main characteristics to that determined for the period 1985–2009 in previous studies. Local departures exist for the northern PIG slopes, where the orographic precipitation shadow effect appears to be more pronounced in our observations, and the southward interior, where the SMB gradient is more pronounced in previous studies. We derive total mass inputs of 79.9±19.2 and 82.1±19.2 Gt yr−1 to the PIG basin based on complementary ASIRAS–RACMO and ASIRAS–MAR SMB estimates, respectively. These are not significantly different to the value of 78.3±6.8 Gt yr−1 for the period 1985–2009. Thus, there is no evidence of a secular trend at decadal scales in total mass input to the PIG basin. We note, however, that our estimated uncertainty is more than twice the uncertainty for the 1985–2009 estimate on total mass input. Our error analysis indicates that uncertainty estimates on total mass input are highly sensitive to the selected krige methodology and assumptions made on the interpolation error, which we identify as the main cause for the increased uncertainty range compared to the 1985–2009 estimates.

Surface mass balance downscaling through elevation classes in an Earth system model: application to the Greenland ice sheet

Abstract. The modeling of ice sheets in Earth system models (ESMs) is an active area of research with applications to future sea level rise projections and paleoclimate studies. A major challenge for surface mass balance (SMB) modeling with ESMs arises from their coarse resolution. This paper evaluates the elevation class (EC) method as an SMB downscaling alternative to the dynamical downscaling of regional climate models. To this end, we compare EC-simulated elevation-dependent surface energy and mass balance gradients from the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) with those from the regional climate model RACMO2.3. The EC implementation in CESM1.0 combines prognostic snow albedo, a multilayer snow model, and elevation corrections for two atmospheric forcing variables: temperature and humidity. Despite making no corrections for incoming radiation and precipitation, we find that the EC method in CESM1.0 yields similar SMB gradients to RACMO2.3, in part due to compensating biases in snowfall, surface melt, and refreezing gradients. We discuss the sensitivity of the results to the lapse rate used for the temperature correction. We also evaluate the impact of the EC method on the climate simulated by the ESM and find minor cooling over the Greenland ice sheet and Barents and Greenland seas, which compensates for a warm bias in the ESM due to topographic smoothing. Based on our diagnostic procedure to evaluate the EC method, we make several recommendations for future implementations.

Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes

Abstract. The Antarctic ice sheet mass balance is a major component of the sea level budget and results from the difference of two fluxes of a similar magnitude: ice flow discharging in the ocean and net snow accumulation on the ice sheet surface, i.e. the surface mass balance (SMB). Separately modelling ice dynamics and SMB is the only way to project future trends. In addition, mass balance studies frequently use regional climate models (RCMs) outputs as an alternative to observed fields because SMB observations are particularly scarce on the ice sheet. Here we evaluate new simulations of the polar RCM MAR forced by three reanalyses, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2, for the period 1979–2015, and we compare MAR results to the last outputs of the RCM RACMO2 forced by ERA-Interim. We show that MAR and RACMO2 perform similarly well in simulating coast-to-plateau SMB gradients, and we find no significant differences in their simulated SMB when integrated over the ice sheet or its major basins. More importantly, we outline and quantify missing or underestimated processes in both RCMs. Along stake transects, we show that both models accumulate too much snow on crests, and not enough snow in valleys, as a result of drifting snow transport fluxes not included in MAR and probably underestimated in RACMO2 by a factor of 3. Our results tend to confirm that drifting snow transport and sublimation fluxes are much larger than previous model-based estimates and need to be better resolved and constrained in climate models. Sublimation of precipitating particles in low-level atmospheric layers is responsible for the significantly lower snowfall rates in MAR than in RACMO2 in katabatic channels at the ice sheet margins. Atmospheric sublimation in MAR represents 363 Gt yr−1 over the grounded ice sheet for the year 2015, which is 16 % of the simulated snowfall loaded at the ground. This estimate is consistent with a recent study based on precipitation radar observations and is more than twice as much as simulated in RACMO2 because of different time residence of precipitating particles in the atmosphere. The remaining spatial differences in snowfall between MAR and RACMO2 are attributed to differences in advection of precipitation with snowfall particles being likely advected too far inland in MAR.

Simulating the Evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050

ABSTRACTFew simulations of typical Tibetan Plateau glacier response to climate warming have been made, despite the glaciers’ importance as water supplies in an arid region. Here we apply a three-dimensional thermomechanically coupled full-Stokes ice dynamics model to simulate the evolution of Qingtang No. 1 Glacier, a representative glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau. A degree-day model along with snow temperature and precipitation estimates based on nearby observations are used to estimate surface mass balance (SMB) over the past three decades. The resulting SMB gradients and equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) sensitivity to air temperature are used to parameterize the SMB in the future. We use the ice-flow model to simulate glacier evolution from 2013 to 2050. Simulated within-glacier temperatures and present-day glacier terminus retreat rates are in reasonable agreement with previous observations. Forcing the glacier model with the historical warming trend of 0.035 °C a−1 and a warming projection from the high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) under the A1B scenario for the period 2013–2050 leads to substantial retreat and ice loss, and large increases (110%–155%) in annual water runoff. Losses of 11%–18% in area and 19%–30% in volume are predicted over the next four decades, with the warmer RegCM3 scenario giving larger rates of loss. Sensitivity of glacier change to the parameters in SMB profiles are also assessed.

Considering the Ice Excavation Required to Establish and Maintain an Open Ice Pit

AbstractSeveral factors are increasing the likelihood of open ice pit mining adjacent to the Greenland ice sheet. This study employs a fully transient one-dimensional (1D) (depth-averaged) ice flow model, which includes a first-order longitudinal stress gradient approximation, to estimate the ice excavation required to establish and maintain an open ice pit. An idealized open ice pit geometry and purely deformational flow are assumed. A Monte Carlo approach is used to quantify the cumulative uncertainty in total ice excavation resulting from four key parameters: (1) ice temperature, (2) ice thickness, (3) equilibrium line altitude, and (4) surface mass balance gradient. Two scenarios of ice pit slope (2H:1V and 3H:1V), excavation method (constant and progressively steepening slope), and surface ablation enhancement (+25 and +50%), are considered. Total ice excavation is more sensitive to parameters controlling deformational velocity (1 and 2) than parameters controlling surface mass balance (3 and 4). Enh...

Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-First-Century Changes

Abstract This study presents the first twenty-first-century projections of surface mass balance (SMB) changes for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes a new ice sheet component. For glaciated surfaces, CESM includes a sophisticated calculation of energy fluxes, surface albedo, and snowpack hydrology (melt, percolation, refreezing, etc.). To efficiently resolve the high SMB gradients at the ice sheet margins and provide surface forcing at the scale needed by ice sheet models, the SMB is calculated at multiple elevations and interpolated to a finer 5-km ice sheet grid. During a twenty-first-century simulation driven by representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) forcing, the SMB decreases from 372 ± 100 Gt yr−1 in 1980–99 to −78 ± 143 Gt yr−1 in 2080–99. The 2080–99 near-surface temperatures over the GIS increase by 4.7 K (annual mean) with respect to 1980–99, only 1.3 times the global increase (+3.7 K). Snowfall increases by 18%, while surface melt doubles. The ablation area increases from 9% of the GIS in 1980–99 to 28% in 2080–99. Over the ablation areas, summer downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes increase, while incoming shortwave radiation decreases owing to increased cloud cover. The reduction in GIS-averaged July albedo from 0.78 in 1980–99 to 0.75 in 2080–99 increases the absorbed solar radiation in this month by 12%. Summer warming is strongest in the north and east of Greenland owing to reduced sea ice cover. In the ablation area, summer temperature increases are smaller due to frequent periods of surface melt.

Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to surface albedo parameterization: a study with a regional climate model

Abstract. We present a sensitivity study of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as modeled using a regional atmospheric climate model, to various parameter settings in the albedo scheme. The snow albedo scheme uses grain size as a prognostic variable and further depends on cloud cover, solar zenith angle and black carbon concentration. For the control experiment the overestimation of absorbed shortwave radiation (+6%) at the K-transect (west Greenland) for the period 2004–2009 is considerably reduced compared to the previous density-dependent albedo scheme (+22%). To simulate realistic snow albedo values, a small concentration of black carbon is needed, which has strongest impact on melt in the accumulation area. A background ice albedo field derived from MODIS imagery improves the agreement between the modeled and observed SMB gradient along the K-transect. The effect of enhanced meltwater retention and refreezing is a decrease of the albedo due to an increase in snow grain size. As a secondary effect of refreezing the snowpack is heated, enhancing melt and further lowering the albedo. Especially in a warmer climate this process is important, since it reduces the refreezing potential of the firn layer that covers the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Twenty-one years of mass balance observations along the K-transect, West Greenland

Abstract. A 21-yr record is presented of surface mass balance measurements along the K-transect. The series covers the period 1990–2011. Data are available at eight sites along a transect over an altitude range of 380–1850 m at approximately 67° N in West Greenland. The surface mass balance gradient is on average 3.8 × 10−3 m w.e. m−1, and the mean equilibrium line altitude is 1553 m a.s.l. Only the lower three sites within 10 km of the margin up to an elevation of 700 m experience a significant increasing trend in the ablation over the entire period. Data are available at: doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.779181.

Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet

Abstract. It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB) results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation from a climate model, and parameterizing the meltwater run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation (Hs). In this study, we propose a new strategy to calculate SMB, to allow a direct adjustment of SMB to a change in ice sheet topography and/or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on elevational gradients in the SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation, using pairs of Hs and SMB within a minimum search radius. The continuously adjusting SMB forcing is consistent with climate model forcing fields, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet. When applied to an asynchronous coupled ice sheet – climate model setup, this method circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. Here we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Experiments using both steady-state forcing and glacial-interglacial forcing result in realistic ice sheet reconstructions.

Impact of model resolution on simulated wind, drifting snow and surface mass balance in Terre Adélie, East Antarctica

AbstractThis paper presents the impact of model resolution on the simulated wind speed, drifting snow climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Terre Adélie and its surroundings, East Antarctica. We compare regional climate model simulations at 27 and 5.5 km resolution for the year 2009. The wind speed maxima in Terre Adélie and the narrow glacial valleys of Victoria Land are better represented at 5.5 km resolution, because the topography is better resolved. Drifting snow sublimation is >100 mm a-1 in regions with high wind speeds. Our results indicate a strong feedback between topography, wind gradients and drifting snow erosion. As a result, SMB shows much more local spatial variability at 5.5 km resolution that is controlled by drifting snow erosion, whereas the large-scale SMB gradient is largely determined by precipitation. Drifting snow processes lead to ablation in the narrow glacial valleys of Victoria Land. The integrated SMB equals 86 Gt. Although wind climate, drifting snow processes and SMB variability are better represented at 5.5 km, the area-integrated SMB is not significantly different between the simulations at 27 and 5.5 km. A horizontal resolution of 27 km is sufficient to realistically simulate ice-sheet wide SMB.

Reassessment of the Antarctic surface mass balance using calibrated output of a regional atmospheric climate model

A detailed comparison of model‐simulated and observed Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) is presented, using output of a regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2/ANT) for the period 1980 to 2004. All available SMB observations from Antarctica (N = 1900) are used for the comparison, except clearly erroneous observations and data which are in areas where dominant SMB patterns occur on scales smaller than the model resolution. A high correlation is found (r = 0.82), while the regression slope (1.2) indicates that the model slightly overemphasizes SMB gradients. Comparing the model SMB with the latest SMB compilation, a similarly high correlation is found (r = 0.79), but the regression slope is much too steep because model‐simulated SMB agrees less with the compilation in data‐sparse regions. Model‐simulated SMB resembles the observed SMB as a function of elevation very well. This is used to calibrate model‐simulated SMB to reassess the contemporary Antarctic SMB. Compared to the latest SMB compilation, calibrated model‐simulated SMB is up to 1 m yr−1 higher in the coastal zones of East and West Antarctica, which are without exception in areas with few observations. As a result, the SMB integrated over the grounded ice sheet (171 ± 3 mm yr−1) exceeds previous estimates by as much as 15%. Support or falsification of this model result can only be found in new SMB observations from high accumulation regions.