The problems to plan and ensure a given level of reliability of mechanical systems at all stages of their design and operation occupy an important place in the problem of ensuring the quality of machine-building products. With a significant number of scientific methods and approaches to solving theoretical and applied issues of reliability theory, one of the key directions is to determine the reliability indicators of technical systems and their elements, in particular a wide range of products including sliding friction pairs with periodic impacts. The study of failure origins, from the point of view of physical-mechanical processes occurring in surface layers of elements, under the influence of external factors, allows selecting parameters characterizing the functional state of the pair, and, as a result, its reliability. For example, for sliding friction pairs with periodic impacts, such a parameter is the geometric dimensions of the conjugate elements. The decrease in the geometric dimensions of conjugate elements, due to wear, characterizes the rate of change of the initial parameter values to the maximum permissible ones determining the failure, and can be approximated by linear, power, exponential and other dependencies obtained from actual measurements. According to the obtained functional dependencies of parameter changes over operating time, it makes possible to determine the norm for the parameter regulating their pre-failure state, beyond which failure prediction is possible with varying probability, and, as a result, the reliability of the system as a whole. The use of this method to reliability forecasting through the determination of the pre-failure state of the system can be projected onto technical objects, which performance indicators are geometric parameters that ensure the performance, first of all, of the functions of the elements themselves and the entire technical system, and worn out during operation.