An important consideration for UAV-based (unmanned aerial vehicle) object detection in the natural environment is vegetation height and foliar cover, which can visually obscure the items a machine learning model is trained to detect. Hence, the accuracy of aerial detection of objects such as surface landmines and UXO (unexploded ordnance) is highly dependent on the height and density of vegetation in a given area. In this study, we develop a model that estimates the detection accuracy (recall) of a YOLOv8 object’s detection implementation as a function of occlusion due to vegetation coverage. To solve this function, we developed an algorithm to extract vegetation height and coverage of the UAV imagery from a digital surface model generated using structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry. We find the relationship between recall and percent occlusion is well modeled by a sigmoid function using the PFM-1 landmine test case. Applying the sigmoid recall-occlusion relationship in conjunction with our vegetation cover algorithm to solve for percent occlusion, we mapped the uncertainty in detection rate due to vegetation in UAV-based SfM orthomosaics in eight different minefield environments. This methodology and model have significant implications for determining the optimal location and time of year for UAV-based object detection tasks and quantifying the uncertainty of deep learning object detection models in the natural environment.