Surface Creep Rate Research Articles

Fault-network geometry influences earthquake frictional behaviour.

Understanding the factors governing the stability of fault slip is a crucial problem in fault mechanics1-3. The importance of fault geometry and roughness on fault-slip behaviour has been highlighted in recent lab experiments4-7 and numerical models8-11, and emerging evidence suggests that large-scale complexities in fault networks have a vital role in the fault-rupture process12-18. Here we present a new perspective on fault creep by investigating the link between fault-network geometry and surface creep rates in California, USA. Our analysis reveals that fault groups exhibiting creeping behaviour show smaller misalignment in their fault-network geometry. The observation indicates that the surface fault traces of creeping regions tend to be simple, whereas locked regions tend to be more complex. We propose that the presence of complex fault-network geometries results in geometric locking that promotes stick-slip behaviour characterized by earthquakes, whereas simpler geometries facilitate smooth fault creep. Our findings challenge traditional hypotheses on the physical origins of fault creep explained primarily in terms of fault friction19-21 and demonstrate the potential for a new framework in which large-scale earthquake frictional behaviour is determined by a combination of geometric factors and rheological yielding properties.

Spatiotemporal Variations of Surface Deformation, Shallow Creep Rate, and Slip Partitioning Between the San Andreas and Southern Calaveras Fault

AbstractThe Calaveras Fault (CF) branches from the San Andreas Fault (SAF) near San Benito, extending sub‐parallel to the SAF for about 50 km with only 2–6 km separation and diverging northeastward. Both the SAF and CF are partially coupled, exhibit spatially variable aseismic creep and have hosted moderate to large earthquakes in recent decades. Understanding how slip partitions among the main fault strands of the SAF system and establishing their degree of coupling is crucial for seismic hazard evaluation. We perform a timeseries analysis using more than 5 years of Sentinel‐1 data covering the Bay Area (May 2015–October 2020), specifically targeting the spatiotemporal variations of creep rates around the SAF‐CF junction. We derive the surface creep rates from cross‐fault InSAR timeseries differences along the SAF and CF including adjacent Sargent and Quien Sabe Faults. We show that the variable creep rates (0–20 mm/yr) at the SAF‐CF junction are to first order controlled by the angle between the fault strike and the background stress orientation. We further examine the spatiotemporal variation of creep rates along the SAF and CF and find a multi‐annual coupling increase during 2016–2018 the subparallel sections of both faults, with the CF coupling change lagging behind the SAF by 3–6 months. Similar temporal variations are also observed in both b‐values inferred from declustered seismicity and aseismic slip rates inferred from characteristic repeating earthquakes.

Creep Rate Models for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model: Physically Constrained Inversions for the Distribution of Creep on California Faults

Abstract Widespread surface creep is observed across a number of active faults included in the United States (US) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). In northern California, creep occurs on the central section of the San Andreas fault, along the Hayward and Calaveras faults through the San Francisco Bay Area, and to the north coast region along the Maacama and Bartlett Springs faults. In southern California, creep is observed across the Coachella segment of the San Andreas fault, through the Brawley Seismic Zone, and along the Imperial and Superstition Hills faults. Seismic hazard assessments for California have accounted for creep using various data and methods, including the most recent Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) in 2013. The purpose of this study is to expand and update the UCERF3 creep rate data set for the 2023 release of the US NSHM and to invert geodetic data and the surface creep rate data for the spatial distribution of interseismic fault creep on California faults using an elastic model with physical creep constraints. The updated surface creep rate compilation consists of a variety of data types including alignment arrays, offset cultural markers, creepmeters, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, and Global Positioning System data. We compile a total of 497 surface creep rate measurements, 400 of which are new and 97 of which appear in the UCERF3 compilation. We compute creep rate distributions for each of the five 2023 NSHM geodetic-based and geologic-based deformation models. Computed creep rates are used to reduce the total fault moment rate available for earthquake sequences in the NSHM model. We find that, despite relatively large variability in model long-term slip rates across all five deformation models, the variability in depth-averaged creep rate across all models is relatively small, typically 5–10 mm/yr along the creeping San Andreas fault section and only 2–4 mm/yr along the Maacama and Rodgers Creek-Hayward faults.

Partial Coupling and Earthquake Potential Along the Xianshuihe Fault, China

AbstractThe left‐lateral Xianshuihe Fault is located at the eastern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau and is one of the most active faults in China. It is associated with substantial seismic potential, with more than 20 Mw > 6 earthquakes since 1700. The fault has been documented to be creeping at the surface for decades; however, the spatial and temporal distributions of shallow creep along the fault are not well resolved. In this study, we obtain high‐resolution interseismic velocity maps along the 350‐km‐long central Xianshuihe Fault and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time series along the Kangding segment using ascending and descending Sentinel‐1 data. The InSAR data reveal multiple creeping sections and the estimated surface creep rates show high along‐strike variability. A coupling model characterizes the distribution of creep with depth. The seismic potential of apparent rupture asperities along the Xianshuihe Fault is further refined by considering fault‐crossing baseline data and the distribution of historical ruptures and microseismicity. Moreover, a stress‐driven afterslip model of the observed accelerated creep around the Mw 5.9 2014 Kangding rupture indicates substantial shallow afterslip, which provides further constraints on the distribution of locked and creeping patches along this section of the Xianshuihe Fault.

Surface creep rate distribution along the Philippine fault, Leyte Island, and possible repeating of Mw ~ 6.5 earthquakes on an isolated locked patch

Active faults commonly repeat cycles of sudden rupture and subsequent silence of hundreds to tens of thousands of years, but some parts of mature faults exhibit continuous creep accompanied by many small earthquakes. Discovery and detailed examination of creeping faults on land have been in a rapid progress with the advent of space-borne synthetic aperture radar interferometry. In this study, we measured the spatial variation of the creep rate along the Philippine fault on Leyte Island using ALOS/PALSAR data acquired between October 2006 and January 2011. Prominent creep of 33pm {11} mm/year was estimated in northern and central parts of the island except for a locked portion around latitude 11.08–11.20^circ N. We compared the creep rate distribution along the fault with the slip distribution of the 2017 M_w 6.5 Ormoc earthquake which occurred in northern Leyte, estimated from the displacements mapped by ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 interferometric data. The estimated slip of the 2017 earthquake amounted up to 2.5 m and to moment magnitude of 6.49, with the dominant rupture area coinciding with the locked portion identified from the interseismic coupling analysis. Teleseismic waveforms of the 2017 earthquake and another event that occurred in 1947 (M_s 6.9) exhibit close resemblance, indicating two ruptures of rather similar locations and magnitudes with a time interval of 70 years.

Surface Creep Rate of the Southern San Andreas Fault Modulated by Stress Perturbations From Nearby Large Events

AbstractA major challenge for understanding the physics of shallow fault creep has been to observe and model the long‐term effect of stress changes on creep rate. Here we investigate the surface creep along the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) using data from interferometric synthetic aperture radar spanning over 25 years (ERS 1992–1999, ENVISAT 2003–2010, and Sentinel‐1 2014–present). The main result of this analysis is that the average surface creep rate increased after the Landers event and then decreased by a factor of 2–7 over the past few decades. We consider quasi‐static and dynamic Coulomb stress changes on the SSAF due to these three major events. From our analysis, the elevated creep rates after the Landers can only be explained by static stress changes, indicating that even in the presence of dynamically triggered creep, static stress changes may have a long‐lasting effect on SSAF creep rates.

Interseismic Ground Deformation and Fault Slip Rates in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area From Two Decades of Space Geodetic Data

AbstractThe detailed spatial variations of strain accumulation and creep on major faults in the northern San Francisco Bay Area (North Bay), which are important for seismic potential and evaluation of natural hazards, remain poorly understood. Here we combine interferometric synthetic aperture radar data from the ERS‐1/2 and Envisat satellites between 1992 and 2010 with continuous and campaign GPS data to obtain a high spatial and temporal coverage of ground deformation of the North Bay. The SAR data from both ascending and descending orbits are combined to separate horizontal and vertical components of the deformation. We jointly invert the horizontal component of the mean velocities derived from these data to infer the deep strike‐slip rates on major locked faults. We use the estimated deep rates to simulate the long‐wavelength deformation due to interseismic elastic strain accumulation along these locked faults. After removing the long‐wavelength signal from the InSAR horizontal mean velocity field, we estimate fault‐parallel surface creep rates of up to 2 mm/year along the central section of the Rodgers Creek fault and surface creep rates ranging between 2 and 4 mm/year along the Concord fault. No surface creep is geodetically resolved along the West Napa and Green Valley fault zones. We identified characteristically repeating earthquakes on the Rodgers Creek fault, the West Napa fault, the Green Valley fault, and the Concord fault. Nontectonic deformation in the Geysers geothermal field and in Late Cenozoic basins (Rohnert Park and Sonoma basins) are also observed, likely due to hydrological and sediment‐compaction processes, respectively.

Surface creep and slip-behavior segmentation along the northwestern Xianshuihe fault zone of southwestern China determined from decades of fault-crossing short-baseline and short-level surveys

This study examines the ~200-km-long northwestern Xianshuihe fault zone (NWXFZ), southwestern China, using more than three decades of geodetic observations from fault-crossing short-baseline and short-leveling surveys at seven sites. These data enable estimates of creep rates and depths, and examination of the long-term slip behavior. The surface motion of the NWXFZ is dominated by sinistral creep, although sinistral, transverse, and vertical slip components show spatio-temporal variations. Combining these slip variations with data of earthquake rupture, coseismic slip, seismicity, fault geometry, and far-fault movement velocity, and using the velocity-and-state friction theory, our analysis indicates that the surface slip behavior of the NWXFZ is segmented along strike. The 1973 rupture section of this fault zone exhibits spatio-temporally variable slip behavior, showing time-decaying post-1973 afterslip on the northwestern and southeastern parts of the rupture at depths above 5.8−7.0km with average sinistral-creep rates of 1.3 and 3.5mm/yr, respectively, but being relocked in the central part of the rupture. The 1923/1981 rupture section is generally in locking state, with postseismic and interseismic sinistral-creep at 1.1mm/yr on its central part at depths above 2.0–2.8km. The 1893 rupture section has been tightly locked without creep since at least the early 1980s. The thickness of the shallow velocity-strengthening (or creep) layer and the restraining bend geometry of the NWXFZ are the key factors that control spatio-temporal variations in surface creep rates. Two surface-observed locked fault portions are located within two different restraining bends in the NWXFZ, both of which act as compressive asperities and hence have enabled the long-term locking of these portions. Creep along the NWXFZ has also been affected to varying degrees by M6.5−Mw9.2 earthquakes at distances of 50−3800 km from the fault zone. Most of these effects have been removed from our estimates of the long-term average creep rates.

InSAR observations of strain accumulation and fault creep along the Chaman Fault system, Pakistan and Afghanistan

AbstractWe use 2004–2011 Envisat synthetic aperture radar imagery and InSAR time series methods to estimate the contemporary rates of strain accumulation in the Chaman Fault system in Pakistan and Afghanistan. At 29 N we find long‐term slip rates of 16 ± 2.3 mm/yr for the Ghazaband Fault and of 8 ± 3.1 mm/yr for the Chaman Fault. This makes the Ghazaband Fault one of the most hazardous faults of the plate boundary zone. We further identify a 340 km long segment displaying aseismic surface creep along the Chaman Fault, with maximum surface creep rate of 8.1 ± 2 mm/yr. The observation that the Chaman Fault accommodates only 30% of the relative plate motion between India and Eurasia implies that the remainder is accommodated south and east of the Katawaz block microplate.

Interseismic coupling and refined earthquake potential on the Hayward‐Calaveras fault zone

AbstractInterseismic strain accumulation and fault creep is usually estimated from GPS and alignment arrays data, which provide precise but spatially sparse measurements. Here we use interferometric synthetic aperture radar to resolve the interseismic deformation associated with the Hayward and Calaveras Faults (HF and CF) in the East San Francisco Bay Area. The large 1992–2011 SAR data set permits evaluation of short‐ and long‐wavelength deformation larger than 2 mm/yr without alignment of the velocity field to a GPS‐based model. Our time series approach in which the interferogram selection is based on the spatial coherence enables deformation mapping in vegetated areas and leads to refined estimates of along‐fault surface creep rates. Creep rates vary from 0 ± 2 mm/yr on the northern CF to 14 ± 2 mm/yr on the central CF south of the HF surface junction. We estimate the long‐term slip rates by inverting the long‐wavelength deformation and the distribution of shallow slip due to creep by inverting the remaining velocity field. This distribution of slip reveals the locations of locked and slowly creeping patches with potential for a M6.8 ± 0.3 on the HF near San Leandro, a M6.6 ± 0.2 on the northern CF near Dublin, a M6.5 ± 0.1 on the HF south of Fremont, and a M6.2 ± 0.2 on the central CF near Morgan Hill. With cascading multisegment ruptures the HF rupturing from Berkeley to the CF junction could produce a M6.9 ± 0.1, the northern CF a M6.6 ± 0.1, the central CF a M6.9 ± 0.2 from the junction to Gilroy, and a joint rupture of the HF and central CF could produce a M7.1 ± 0.1.

Dynamic rupture models of earthquakes on the Bartlett Springs Fault, Northern California

AbstractThe Bartlett Springs Fault (BSF), the easternmost branch of the northern San Andreas Fault system, creeps along much of its length. Geodetic data for the BSF are sparse, and surface creep rates are generally poorly constrained. The two existing geodetic slip rate inversions resolve at least one locked patch within the creeping zones. We use the 3‐D finite element code FaultMod to conduct dynamic rupture models based on both geodetic inversions, in order to determine the ability of rupture to propagate into the creeping regions, as well as to assess possible magnitudes for BSF ruptures. For both sets of models, we find that the distribution of aseismic creep limits the extent of coseismic rupture, due to the contrast in frictional properties between the locked and creeping regions.

Using Surface Creep Rate to Infer Fraction Locked for Sections of the San Andreas Fault System in Northern California from Alignment Array and GPS Data

Surface creep rate, observed along five branches of the dextral San Andreas fault system in northern California, varies considerably from one section to the next, indicating that so too may the depth at which the faults are locked. We model locking on 29 fault sections using each section’s mean long‐term creep rate and the consensus values of fault width and geologic slip rate. Surface creep rate observations from 111 short‐range alignment and trilateration arrays and 48 near‐fault, Global Positioning System station pairs are used to estimate depth of creep, assuming an elastic half‐space model and adjusting depth of creep iteratively by trial and error to match the creep observations along fault sections. Fault sections are delineated either by geometric discontinuities between them or by distinctly different creeping behaviors. We remove transient rate changes associated with five large ( M ≥5.5) regional earthquakes. Estimates of fraction locked, the ratio of moment accumulation rate to loading rate, on each section of the fault system provide a uniform means to inform source parameters relevant to seismic‐hazard assessment. From its mean creep rates, we infer the main branch (the San Andreas fault) ranges from only 20%±10% locked on its central creeping section to 99%–100% on the north coast. From mean accumulation rates, we infer that four urban faults appear to have accumulated enough seismic moment to produce major earthquakes: the northern Calaveras ( M 6.8), Hayward ( M 6.8), Rodgers Creek ( M 7.1), and Green Valley ( M 7.1). The latter three faults are nearing or past their mean recurrence interval. Online Material: High‐resolution fault system map, and tables of creep observations and geographic coordinates of fault model.

Is stress accumulating on the creeping section of the San Andreas fault?

The creeping section of the San Andreas fault (CSAF) in central California is a proposed barrier to propagation of large earthquakes. Yet, recent studies show that the creeping section is not entirely uncoupled but is accumulating slip deficit at a rate equivalent to a Mw=7.2–7.4 earthquake every 150years. A critical piece to understanding earthquake potential on the CSAF is determining whether slip deficit is occurring with stress accumulation on stick‒slip regions or without stress accumulation on stable‒sliding regions shadowed by surrounding locked areas. We use a physical model to estimate the spatial distribution of locked, stress‒accumulating areas of the fault constrained by surface creep rate measurements and GPS‒derived velocities. We find that the area of the fault accumulating stress, if ruptured every 150years, would release slip equivalent to at most a Mw=6.75 earthquake, significantly less than the Mw=7.2–7.4, 150year equivalent total slip deficit rate.

Size distribution of Parkfield's microearthquakes reflects changes in surface creep rate

AbstractThe nucleation area of the series of M6 events in Parkfield has been shown to be characterized by low b-values throughout the seismic cycle. Since low b-values represent high differential stresses, the asperity structure seems to be always stably stressed and even unaffected by the latest main shock in 2004. However, because fault loading rates and applied shear stress vary with time, some degree of temporal variability of the b-value within stable blocks is to be expected. We discuss in this study adequate techniques and uncertainty treatment for a detailed analysis of the temporal evolution of b-values. We show that the derived signal for the Parkfield asperity correlates with changes in surface creep, suggesting a sensitive time resolution of the b-value stress meter, and confirming near-critical loading conditions within the Parkfield asperity.

Arrest and recovery of frictional creep on the southern Hayward fault triggered by the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake and implications for future earthquakes

[1] Theodolite measurements across the right-lateral Hayward fault, San Francisco Bay, California, show a dramatic reduction in surface creep rate from 5 to 10 mm/yr before the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake to nearly zero creep rate after the earthquake. A ∼6 year period of nearly zero surface creep was followed by sudden fault creep that accumulated about 20–25 mm of right-lateral displacement followed by an eventual return to a steady creep by year ∼2000. This creep behavior can be explained as a result of a sudden shear stress reduction on the fault and is consistent with model predictions for a fault imbedded in an elastic medium with slip governed by laboratory-derived friction laws. We infer friction parameters on the fault using a spring-slider model and a boundary element model with the rate- and state-dependent friction laws. The state (healing) term in the friction law is critical for reproducing the observed evolution of surface creep; a popular simplified rate-dependent friction law is insufficient. Results suggest that the creep event extended to a depth of ∼4–7.5 km. The inferred critical slip distance, dc, is 1–2 orders of magnitude larger than lab values, and inferred aσ values imply low effective fault-normal stresses of 5–30 MPa. This range of effective normal stress and inversion results for (a − b)σ imply very small values for a − b of 10−5 to 10−3, suggesting the fault has nearly velocity-neutral frictional properties. Earthquake simulations with such small a − b values show that creeping areas on the Hayward fault may be capable of rupturing during earthquakes.

Numerical modeling of strike-slip creeping faults and implications for the Hayward fault, California

The seismic potential of creeping faults such as the Hayward fault (San Francisco Bay Area, CA) depends on the rate at which moment (slip deficit) accumulates on the fault plane. Thus, it is important to evaluate how the creep rate observed at the surface is related to the slip on the fault plane. The surface creep rate (SCR) depends on the geometry of locked and free portions of the fault and on the interaction between the fault zone and the surrounding lithosphere. Using a viscoelastic finite element model, we investigate how fault zone geometries and physical characteristics such as frictionless or locked patches affect the observed surface creep when the system is driven by far field plate motions. These results have been applied to creep observations of the Hayward fault. This analysis differs from most previous fault creeping models in that the fault in our model is loaded by a distributed viscous flow induced by far field velocity boundary conditions instead of imposed slip beneath the major faults of the region. The far field velocity boundary conditions simulate the relative motion of the stable Pacific plate respect to the Rigid Sierra Nevada block, leaving the rheology, fault geometry, and mechanics (locked or free to creep patches), to determinate the patterns of fault creep. Our model results show that the fault geometry (e.g. length and depth of creeping) and the local rheology influence the surface creep rate (SCR) and the slip on the fault plane. In particular, we show that the viscoelastic layer beneath the elastic seismogenic zone plays a fundamental role in loading the fault. Additionally, the coupling with the surrounding lithosphere results in a smooth transition from regions free to creep to locked patches.

Response of the San Andreas fault to the 1983 Coalinga‐Nuñez earthquakes: An application of interaction‐based probabilities for Parkfield

The Parkfield‐Cholame section of the San Andreas fault, site of an unfulfilled earthquake forecast in 1985, is the best monitored section of the world's most closely watched fault. In 1983, the M = 6.5 Coalinga and M = 6.0 Nuñez events struck 25 km northeast of Parkfield. Seismicity rates climbed for 18 months along the creeping section of the San Andreas north of Parkfield and dropped for 6 years along the locked section to the south. Right‐lateral creep also slowed or reversed from Parkfield south. Here we calculate that the Coalinga sequence increased the shear and Coulomb stress on the creeping section, causing the rate of small shocks to rise until the added stress was shed by additional slip. However, the 1983 events decreased the shear and Coulomb stress on the Parkfield segment, causing surface creep and seismicity rates to drop. We use these observations to cast the likelihood of a Parkfield earthquake into an interaction‐based probability, which includes both the renewal of stress following the 1966 Parkfield earthquake and the stress transfer from the 1983 Coalinga events. We calculate that the 1983 shocks dropped the 10‐year probability of a M ∼ 6 Parkfield earthquake by 22% (from 54 ± 22% to 42 ± 23%) and that the probability did not recover until about 1991, when seismicity and creep resumed. Our analysis may thus explain why the Parkfield earthquake did not strike in the 1980s, but not why it was absent in the 1990s. We calculate a 58 ± 17% probability of a M ∼ 6 Parkfield earthquake during 2001–2011.

Variations in creep rate along the Hayward Fault, California, interpreted as changes in depth of creep

Variations in surface creep rate along the Hayward fault are modeled as changes in locking depth using 3D boundary elements. Model creep is driven by screw dislocations at 12 km depth under the Hayward and other regional faults. Inferred depth to locking varies along strike from 4–12 km. (12 km implies no locking.) Our models require locked patches under the central Hayward fault, consistent with a M6.8 earthquake in 1868, but the geometry and extent of locking under the north and south ends depend critically on assumptions regarding continuity and creep behavior of the fault at its ends. For the northern onshore part of the fault, our models contain 1.4–1.7 times more stored moment than the model of Bürgmann et al. [2000]; 45–57% of this stored moment resides in creeping areas. It is important for seismic hazard estimation to know how much of this moment is released coseismically or as aseismic afterslip.

Historic creep rate and potential for seismic slip along the Hayward Fault, California

The Hayward fault is considered the most likely source of one or more major earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area in the next few decades. Historically, at least one, and probably two, major earthquakes (about M 6.8) occurred along the Hayward fault, one in 1836 and another in 1868. Little is known about the 1836 event, but the 1868 earthquake was accompanied by a surface rupture that extended as much as 41 km along the southern part of the fault. Although the amount of surface slip in 1868 is uncertain, right slip (including afterslip) reached at least several centimeters, and possibly several decimeters in places. This paper documents the spatial variation of creep rate along the Hayward fault since the 1868 earthquake. Creep (aseismic fault slip) occurs over at least 66 km and may extend over the fault's entire 82‐km length, of which about 13 km lies underwater. Creep rate seems nearly constant over decades, but short‐term variations occur. We derive creep rate mainly from our own systematic surveying of offset cultural features (curbs, fences, and buildings). On each feature we solve directly for accumulated creep by using multiple linear regression. Creep rate mostly falls in the range of 3.5–6.5 mm/yr; but systematic variation occurs along strike. Fault segments with distinctly higher and lower rates generally correspond to parts of the fault most salient from the overall average alinement of the fault. Most distinctive is a 4‐km‐long section near the south end of the fault that creeps at about 9 mm/yr. Such a high rate has occurred there at least since the 1920s and probably since the 1868 earthquake, as indicated by an offset railroad track built in 1869. We suggest that this 9 mm/yr slip rate may approach the long‐term or deep slip rate that controls average recurrence interval between major earthquakes. If so, assuming an elastic rebound model, the potential for slip in large earthquakes below the surficial creeping zone is now ∼1.1 m in the southern (1868) segment of the fault and ≥ 1.4 m in the northern (1836?) segment. Subtracting surface creep rates from a long‐term slip rate of 9 mm/yr gives present potential for surface slip in large earthquakes of up to 0.8 m, with an average of 0.6 m in the northern segment and 0.4 m in the southern segment. We present a simple hypothesis for rupture potential that is compatible with historic creep rate, microseismicity distribution, and geodetic data. If seismic rupture occurs on segments 41 km long by 10 km deep (7 km fully locked, 3 km creeping), today's potential for seismic moment release is 1.4 × 1019 and 1.1 × 1019 N m for both 1836? and 1868 segments, respectively, and 2.5 × 1019 N m for both segments jointly. Converting moment to magnitude gives ML 6.8 in the northern segment, ML 6.7 in the southern segment, and ML 7.0 for simultaneous rupture of both.

Temporal changes in microseismicity and creep near Parkfield, California

The 25-km-long section of the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California ruptured in similar magnitude-6 earthquakes in 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934 and 1966. On the basis of a number of lines of seismological evidence, a section of the San Andreas fault, now termed the Parkfield preparation zone, has been identified as the locus of the next Parkfield earthquake1,3. Here we describe coincident changes in surface creep rates and deep seismicity near the Parkfield preparation zone following the 2 May 1983 Coalinga earthquake, and suggest that both respond to the same stimuli. These changes were concentrated near the point of initiation of the magnitude-6 characteristic Parkfield earthquakes, lending credence to the hypothesis that this section of the San Andreas fault is characterized by a unique set of physical properties4–6 which make it ideal for earthquake prediction studies and which may also be useful for identifying hypocentral regions in other areas.