Supply Of Services Research Articles

Does import trade liberalization worsen residents’ health? Evidence from China

Health is important to human capital and national sustainable development. Based on the latest Chinese Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper uses the IVprobit model to test the impact of import trade liberalization on residents’ health from the micro-individual perspective and further explores its mechanism. The results indicate that import trade liberalization brings hidden health costs, and that the negative effects on the health of people in eastern China or rural areas, people with a low education background, people under 60 years of age, and women are more significant. In areas with more serious environmental pollution, the health deterioration effect of expanding imports is more obvious. Increasing green coverage and optimizing the quality of public services can effectively alleviate this negative impact. Import trade liberalization does not affect residents’ health through income gap, therefore when carrying out import trade liberalization the government should pay greater attention to the health status of the specified groups, adopt various means to improve the ecological and living environments, reduce pollution emissions, optimize the supply of public services, and ultimately improve residents’ overall health level.

Development of health care expenditures in Finland up to 2040

Abstract Background Increasing health care expenditures are threatening public health by complicating the supply of adequate health services. Exploration of possible future developments of the expenditures is needed to understand how to prepare for future or to change an unwanted course of development. We provided projections by health care sectors taking into account demographic and other developments. Methods We used national data on the realized expenditures per capita by age group, sex and health care sectors from 2017 to 2020, and official forecasts of the population in Finland up to 2040. Future per capita expenditures were projected with Bayesian linear regression models incorporating a priori dependency structure for the slope parameters of the age groups such that the time trends of adjacent groups would be more similar than other groups. These projections were then combined with the population forecasts to estimate the total expenditures. Results The greatest increase (164%) was estimated for the total costs of the primary outpatient healthcare: from 2153 to 5677 million euros in 2020-2040, such that 7% of the growth was attributed to demographic developments. The estimated growths were 68% for the primary inpatient healthcare, 14% for the specialised somatic healthcare, and 52% for the urgent and emergency health services, of which 91%, 98% and 21% were attributed to demographic developments, respectively. Conclusions Notable increases in expenditures are expected in all considered health care sectors, but there are great differences in the proportions of the growth attributed to demographic developments. Due to the limited role of demographic changes, it is worth focusing on controlling the impacts of other developments by, e.g., improving the population health and the efficiency of the health care system. Key messages • Notable increases are expected in health care expenditures up to 2040. • Impacts of demographic changes varies markedly between health care sectors.

Healthy design strategies to promote Urban Public Mental Health, according to the contemporary cities’ climate resilience and the SDGs’ challenges

Abstract According to the “Urban Health Rome Declaration” at European meeting “G7 Health” that defines the strategic aspects and actions to improve Public Health into the cities, and referring to the Agenda 2030 in which the 11th SDG argue about “Sustainable Cities and Communities. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable”, one of the most expressive syntheses of the challenging relationship between urban planning and Public Health is stated by WHO (2016): “Health is the precondition of urban sustainable development and the first priority for urban planners”. Referring to the Healthy Cities & Urban Health definitions, we can consider Public Health not merely an aspect of health protection and promotion, but an individual and collective condition, strongly influenced by the environmental context and by the strategies implemented by local Governments. The “Health in All Policies” strategy, clearly underlines how health doesn’t depend only on the supply of healthcare services, but also, on the quality of outdoor and indoor living environments. Aim of the Presentation 3 is the share the findings of a literature review about the link between the urban contexts’ morphological and functional features; the results are divided into: 14 Health Outcomes, representing the main Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) whose come from the urban environment’s quality and by the adoption of healthy lifestyles; 8 types of Environmental Risk Factors (Urban Heat Island Effect; soil/air/acoustic/light pollution; vehicular traffic; Safety & Security; weak attractiveness of places); and 14 Healthy Urban Planning Strategies (green/blue/grey infrastructures; biodiversity protection; adverse meteoric events management; public transport systems; vehicular traffic reduction; pedestrian and cycling paths; social and functional mix; urban solid waste’s management; renewable energy and efficiency; outdoor spaces lighting; Design for All).

The intermediate role of farmland transfer in the impact of digital financial inclusion on agricultural total factor productivity in China

IntroductionEnhancing agricultural productivity and promoting sustainable development in China are critical priorities, given their significant contribution to food security and rural development. However, achieving consistent agricultural productivity growth across regions and sectors has been challenging, leading to inefficiencies and environmental pressures. To address this, the potential of digital inclusive finance (DIF) as a catalyst for progress has been explored.MethodsThis study investigates the impact of DIF on agricultural total factor productivity (ATFP) through farmland transfer, with implications for rural revitalization and high-quality agricultural development. Using the HMB index method, we calculate and decompose China’s inter-provincial ATFP from 2011 to 2020. Employing the dynamic panel fixed effect model and SYS-GMM method, we empirically test the influence of DIF on agricultural productivity in relation to farmland transfer.Results and discussionOur findings reveal a slow upward trend in China’s ATFP, driven primarily by scale efficiency. Notably, a 1% increase in the general index of DIF correlates with a 0.136% increase in ATFP. We analyze the sub-classification indexes of digital inclusive finance, namely coverage breadth, depth of use, and digitalization degree. Their contributions to agricultural productivity growth are significant, with coverage breadth having the greatest impact, followed by depth of use and digitalization degree. Farmland transfer acts as a crucial intermediary, enhancing agricultural allocation efficiency and driving the relationship between digital finance and total factor productivity growth. Interestingly, the western region exhibits the highest growth rates, followed by the eastern region, while the central region shows no significant effects.ConclusionTo comprehensively enhance ATFP, aligning supply and demand for digital financial services, leveraging service depth, and guiding farmland transfer according to local conditions are essential. These findings offer valuable insights into effective strategies for maximizing the potential of DIF, promoting rural development, and achieving sustainable agricultural growth.

Optimization of a “Social‒Ecological” System Pattern from the Perspective of Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand: A Case Study of Jilin Province

This study establishes and refines a social-landscape ecological security pattern that integrates the demand and supply of ecosystem services, providing a substantial foundation for the ecological restoration of territorial spaces. This foundation is crucial for enhancing the effectiveness of “social–ecological” systems in achieving sustainable development. Jilin Province, serving as a national ecological security buffer and experiencing rapid economic growth, exhibits a significant spatial imbalance between social and economic progress and ecological conservation. The balance of ecosystem service demand and supply is pivotal in this context, making Jilin Province an ideal study area. We employed a multifaceted approach, including MSPA, the InVEST model, landscape connectivity assessment, circuit theory, and ecological network integrity evaluation, to elucidate the spatial disparities between the demand and supply of ecosystem services. We then developed and optimized social and landscape ecological security patterns to meet human demands and safeguard ecological integrity, thereby promoting the sustainable development of “social–ecological” systems. The key findings are as follows: (1) The supply of ecosystem services shows a clear spatial gradient, with lower values in the west and higher in the east, while demand is concentrated in the central region with lower values in the east and west, indicating a pronounced spatial mismatch in Jilin Province. (2) The landscape ecological security pattern includes 18 barrier points, 33 pinch points, 166 ecological corridors, and 101 ecological sources. (3) The social–ecological security pattern comprises 119 demand sources and 150 supply–demand corridors. (4) The study introduces 14 supply–demand nodes and 47 optimization corridors, proposing zoning schemes for the eastern core protection area, the central ecological demand area, and the western core restoration area. Additionally, recommendations are concerning the optimization of the “social–ecological” system pattern. This research advances the theoretical understanding of “social–ecological” system development in Jilin Province and offers insights for more harmonized development strategies.

Spatiotemporal evolution and development path of healthcare services supply in China

ObjectPromoting the accessibility and equity of healthcare services, as well as enhancing service capacity, are crucial for building a sound healthcare system. Particularly in the past two years of the normalized COVID-19 situation, this issue has garnered widespread attention in the academic community. This study aims to investigate and analyze the characteristics and trends of the spatial-temporal evolution of healthcare service supply levels in China. It also seeks to explore the influencing factors and pathways for development, with the goal of optimizing the allocation of healthcare resources.MethodsThis article uses the entropy weight TOPSIS method combined with Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density to evaluate the supply level of healthcare services in 31 provinces and cities in China from 2012 to 2020, and explores its development and spatial pattern characteristics. Then, through Moran index, panel regression model and spatial econometric testing, the spatial correlation problem and its influencing factors are further analyzed, and targeted policy recommendations are proposed based on it, laying the foundation for further promoting the balanced development of healthcare service supply capacity.Results(1) Healthcare services supply levels in various provinces and cities in China have significantly increased, with a shift in spatial distribution from ‘higher in the east and lower in the west’ to ‘convergence between east and west, with lower levels in the central regions.’ (2) Relative differences among regions are narrowing annually, primarily due to interactions between the four regions rather than within each region, with expanding impact of overlapping regions. (3) Absolute differences among regions are also decreasing, moving towards uniformity with a contraction of extension and a restraint on the trend towards multipolarization. (4) Spatial correlation between adjacent regions is weakening, eventually becoming non-significant, with fading spatial effects. (5) The correlation between local economic development, population factors, institutional arrangements, and the current state of supply is significant, and the research design and conclusions remain robust even after thorough consideration of spatial effects. The study explores the development pathways based on the objective existence of regional development and the controllable government actions.ConclusionThe overall level of healthcare service supply in China has improved, but regional differences still exist. The objective level of regional development and the subjective behavior of local governments have a significant impact on the supply of healthcare services. Therefore, it is recommended that each region adapt to local conditions, identify its own strengths and weaknesses, coordinate resource supply and demand, consider the impact of key factors, and optimize the allocation of healthcare development resources.

Research on the Current Status of Pension Models for Individuals with Mental Disorders in China

Objective: By analyzing the existing literature, this paper aims to explore the current situation of the pension model for patients with mental disorders in China and put forward corresponding suggestions for improvement. How: This study analyzes the current situation of the pension model for patients with mental disorders in China by referring to the views of experts and scholars, relevant cases and statistical data through the literature and review of CNKI. Focusing on the existing elderly care service system, policy support and social cognition, this paper reveals the main characteristics and existing problems of the current Chinese elderly care model for people with mental disabilities. By comparing the advanced pension models at home and abroad, this paper puts forward some suggestions on strengthening policy support and improving service system. Results: The research shows that China's existing pension models mainly include family care, institutional pension and community service. The main problems facing: insufficient service supply, shortage of professional talents, social cognition and discrimination. Home care is still the main way, more than 70% of people with mental disorders rely on home care, but face great pressure and challenges; The construction of institutional elderly care and community service systems is gradually developing, but there are still insufficient resources, low service quality, and uneven distribution between urban and rural areas. Policy suggestions: Strengthen the construction and improvement of community support system; Improve professional training to ensure service quality; Use scientific and technological means to assist the elderly and ease the shortage of human resources. It is suggested that we should strengthen the construction of community support system and improve the level of professional service in the future. Conclusion: In China, the mode of nursing care for patients with mental disorders is in the transition period, and family nursing is still the mainstream, but it also faces great challenges. Institutional care and community services have developed, but they are not yet sufficient to replace the role of the family. The future development direction should be multi-dimensional, forming a diversified and three-dimensional elderly care service network.

Spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem service bundles and the driving factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Defining a multi-service spatial pattern and ecosystem packages is the key to ensuring regional ecological security and sustainable development. Ecosystem service bundles can effectively discern the interactions among multiple services and regionalize ecological functional zones. Aiming at a range of environmental and ecological challenges in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, such as water scarcity, soil erosion, land degradation, poor forest and grassland quality, and shrinking agricultural land, the spatial pattern and driving forces of eight crux ecosystem services, including product supply, soil conservation, water conservation, carbon storage, sand fixation, environment purification, biological diversity and recreation culture, were analyzed by combining multiple model algorithms. Additionally, spatial system clustering was employed to identify ecosystem services bundles and optimize the ecological functional zoning. The results revealed significant spatial heterogeneity of the eight ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. High product supply concentrated in plain regions, while the rest seven ecosystem services were dominant in in mountainous areas. The region can be classified into four service bundles: ecological conservation service (ECS), ecological restoration service (ERS), product supply service (PSS) and ecological fragile service (EFS). ECS and ERS are dominated by regulating and supporting services, which are primarily driven by climatic factors and NDVI. ERS exhibits relatively low service level and is the crucial area for future ecological restoration. PSS is dominated by food supply, with land use change being the primary driving force. At present, with the rapid urbanization, various ecosystem services provided by EFS is inadequate. In the future, urban ecological construction should be strengthened to enhance regional ecosystem services capabilities.

Multi-Scale Analysis of Water Purification Ecosystem Service Flow in Taihu Basin for Land Management and Ecological Compensation

This study investigates the spatial correlation and service flow of supply and demand for water purification ecosystem services at multiple scales (i.e., the Taihu Lake Basin, sub-basin, and county) by quantitatively assessing the supply–demand relationship of nitrogen and phosphorus and introducing the SPANS algorithm to characterize the service flow paths. Through quantitative analysis, the supply–demand relationship between nitrogen and phosphorus was evaluated, and the SPANS algorithm was introduced to characterize the service flow paths. The results show that the water purification ecosystem services in the southwestern region and around Taihu Lake exhibit a good supply–demand balance, while a significant supply–demand deficit is observed in the northern and southeastern regions. Service flow analysis indicates that surplus areas are primarily concentrated in hilly and urbanized central regions, whereas deficit areas are mainly located in non-urban centers. Based on these findings, ecological compensation suggestions are proposed, including dynamic adjustment, differentiated compensation, cross-city collaboration, and guidance of social capital participation, to promote continuous improvement in water quality and sustainable development within the basin.

Anthropogenic disturbances alter the trophic niche structure and ecological relationships of understory bat communities in the Ecuadorian Andean Chocó

Human disturbances have reduced the three basic niche dimensions for the survival of some mammalian species (space, time, and resources). Anthropic activities cause the extinction of ecological functionalities faster than species extinctions. In this study, we identified four types of habitats in the Ecuadorian Andean Chocó: primary forest (PF), secondary forest in natural regeneration (SF1), secondary forest in assisted regeneration (SF2), and pastures for cattle (P). The main objective was to determine the responses in the trophic niche and the ecological relationships of understory phyllostomid bat communities. We captured bats with mist nets and obtained fecal samples from 21 species. These were analyzed to quantify seeds, pollen, insects, and vertebrates consumed by each individual, with counts organized by species and habitat type. We conducted an ecological relationship analysis to understand the structure of bat–fruit networks and their dietary preferences. We calculated niche breadth and niche overlap to understand the trophic niche composition of each species. We applied null models to evaluate if there is evidence of trophic niche partitioning among these species. Despite a relatively small sample size, the results obtained are nevertheless interesting. While niche breadth was not useful for detecting the effects of human disturbances, niche overlap was significantly higher in disturbed habitats (SF1, SF2 and P), where ecological relationships were weaker. Most of the species were related to the consumption of seeds from the genus Piper. These results indicate that bat communities and their ecosystem services may be highly endangered due to anthropogenic disturbances. Network interactions in bats are highly variable in geographic space and time, and little is known about the community structure of bat–seed interactions. Studying mutualistic networks in bats and seeds is crucial because of their role in ecosystem support, supply, and regulation services that depend on them.

Ecological Compensation Based on the Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study of the Xin’an River Basin in China

To establish a sound ecological compensation (EC) mechanism in the Xin’an River Basin, this study suggested utilizing ecosystem service valuation to determine the compensation amount. In this study, the first step was to establish a reasonable watershed EC model using the ecological compensation supply coefficient (ECSC) based on the value spillover theory (VST) of the ecosystem services and the ecological compensation demand coefficient (ECDC). The second step was to classify the ecosystem services of the Xin’an River Basin into three categories, including supply service, regulating service, and cultural service, with 14 specific functions to determine the ecological compensation standard accounting scope in these services. Then, a case study on the Xin’an River Basin for EC standards was presented. The total ecosystem service value (ESV) in the Xin’an River Basin was estimated to be CNY 70.271 billion, with supply service accounting for 22.7%, regulating service accounting for 24.6%, and cultural service accounting for 52.7%. Based on the compensation scope, the ecosystem service values for the upper and lower limits of the EC were calculated as CNY 57.779 billion and CNY 17.292 billion. Combined with the results of the ECSC and ECDC, the upper and lower limits of the EC standard in the Xin’an River Basin were computed to be CNY 4.085 billion and CNY 1.438 billion, respectively. Therefore, the ESV-based EC model for the Xin’an River Basin can effectively address the challenge of inadequate EC in the watershed. It also facilitates balanced regional development and serves as a theoretical foundation and empirical evidence for the government to establish a unified national policy on cross-border river basin ecological compensation.

Spatio-Temporal Variations of Soil Conservation Service Supply–Demand Balance in the Qinling Mountains, China

The ecological conservation of nature reserves has garnered considerable attention and is subject to stringent management in China. However, the majority of these areas have a history of underdeveloped economies and require urgent improvements in the well-being of local communities. Effectively coupling and harmonizing the dynamic relationship between ecosystem services and socio-economic development has emerged as a crucial concern for nature reserves. Therefore, further exploration is needed to achieve a spatio-temporal balance and alignment between the supply and demand of ESs in nature reserves in China. Utilizing multiple datasets, RULSE, and bivariate autocorrelation methods, this study investigated the spatio-temporal evolution of the ecosystem services supply–demand ratio (ESDR) and supply–demand spatial matches for soil conservation services (SCSs) in the Qinling Mountains (QMs) from 2000 to 2020. The results indicated the following: (1) Over the years, the supply of SCSs exhibited a consistently high level, with an upward trend observed in 63.10% of the QMs, while the demand for SCSs is generally low, with a decreasing trend observed in 82.68% of the QMs. (2) The supply and demand of SCSs remained favorable, with a positive ESDR reaching 82.19% of the QMs. From 2000 to 2010, there was a significant decline in ESDR; however, a substantial rebound was observed in the ESDR across the region from 2010 to 2020. (3) Over years, the majority of counties and districts exhibited positive values in ESDR. When examining cities, Weinan, Xi’an, and Ankang demonstrated relatively consistent patterns with higher ESDR values over time. In 2000, the ESDR on the northern slope exhibited lower values than that on the southern slope; however, this situation subsequently underwent a reversal. (4) The spatial distribution of SCS supply and demand was predominantly characterized by matching regions exhibiting either High Supply–High Demand or Low Supply–Low Demand for years. This study suggests that the supply and demand dynamics of SCSs in the Qinling Mountains have been favorable in recent years, with consistent spatial supply–demand matches. These findings can provide valuable insights for similar nature reserves aiming to implement ecological environmental protection and achieve sustainable development. The future research endeavors, however, should strive to expand upon these findings by exploring the supply and demand patterns associated with other ESs across diverse nature reserves, while considering their unique geographical characteristics, in order to promote more rational ecological management strategies.

Effect of Energy Poverty Alleviation on High-Quality Economic Development: An Empirical Study Based on China

High-quality development (HQD) has been listed as the first and foremost task in building a modern socialist country in all respects and also an overarching issue of China’s economic and social development in the new era. To achieve economic HQD, a key approach lies in integrating energy development with poverty alleviation and fully leveraging the foundational role of energy infrastructure and supply services in reducing poverty. Using the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2017, this paper analyzes the impact of energy poverty alleviation on economic HQD from multiple dimensions in an empirical way and draws the following conclusions: first, energy poverty alleviation drives the economic growth of China’s eastern region and western region, but it cannot effectively promote the synchronous economic growth of the central region, thereby resulting in a greater imbalance in regional development; second, energy poverty alleviation has an effect on reducing the urban–rural income inequality, and such an effect is more significant in the western region; and finally, energy poverty alleviation has a significant effect on promoting economic HQD, and the effect is more significant in the central region and the western region. Furthermore, the transmission mechanism of energy poverty alleviation driving HQD is tested. It is found that energy poverty alleviation can drive HQD by promoting urbanization and technological progress.

The role of industrial strategies in chemical production and service supply logistics processes

The research topic focuses on applying industrial strategies, especially in chemical industry logistics processes. The research aims to examine the future of the chemical industry in Hungary and worldwide. The question is what is the role of logistics in the chemical supply chain and the difficulties faced in this area? The main difficulty that can be encountered is achieving effective automation and digitalization while maintaining appropriate safety, which is an essential aspect of the chemical industry. The research presents an existing AGV transport solution that significantly facilitates on-site logistics processes within a chemical company. In the research, the potential development areas are found which could be interesting to explore in logistics processes are also discussed.

A new framework for ultra-short-term electricity load forecasting model using IVMD–SGMD two–layer decomposition and INGO–BiLSTM–TPA–TCN

Accurate forecasting of electricity loads is crucial for the development of electricity scheduling and supply services. With the increase in distributed electricity energy sources and the complexity of electricity systems, the strong volatility of load changes brings more challenges to the reliability of load forecasting. Therefore, we propose a novel ultra-short-term electricity load forecasting model using improved two-layer decomposition and an improved deep learning model with temporal pattern attention based on improved northern goshawk optimization (INGO). First, the load data were decomposed thoroughly using the two-layer decomposition model of improved variational mode decomposition (IVMD) with parameter optimization by INGO and symplectic geometry mode decomposition (SGMD) to improve the interpretability of the subsequences. Subsequently, INGO is used to optimize the parameters in bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM). Temporal pattern attention (TPA) is added to BiLSTM, which extracts complex relationships from the hidden neurons of BiLSTM and selects relevant information from different time scales. After predicting and reconstructing the subsequences, the temporal convolutional network (TCN) prediction model is used to perform error correction to improve the final prediction accuracy. Because many government reports and policy information are summarized and published quarterly, to provide information support, we divide the electricity load datasets of two countries by quarters before forecasting. By performing multiple sets of experiments on the two datasets, it is demonstrated that the proposed model has high precision and robustness, and the obtained ultra-short-term electricity load forecasting results can accurately fit the load fluctuation trend.

Evaluation of the Ecosystem Services Value of Agricultural Industrial Parks under the Background of Tianfu Granary Construction - A Case Study of the Daoming and Longxing Districts in Chongzhou City

In the new era, China faces two major challenges of food security and ecological protection. The agricultural industrial parks constructed in the process of developing the Tianfu Granary play a significant role in China's food supply and ecological security as a special type of farmland ecosystem. Accurately calculating the value of ecosystem services in agricultural industrial parks is of great importance for achieving sustainable agricultural development and comprehensively realizing rural revitalization. This paper takes the Daoming and Longxing Agricultural Industrial Parks in Chongzhou City as the research subjects, constructs an evaluation index system for ecosystem service value, and assesses and calculates the supply, support, regulation, and cultural services of the agricultural industrial parks. The research findings show that the total value of ecosystem services reaches 260.64 million yuan, which is 4.65 times the value of the agricultural products supplied, and its significant ecosystem service value cannot be ignored. Among the ecosystem service values of the park, the cultural service value is the highest, followed by the social security service value. Based on the above conclusions, this paper discusses how to achieve high-standard construction of agricultural industrial parks, providing a scientific basis for the government and policymakers to make correct decisions in the rational use of resources, reduce and avoid short-term economic behaviors that damage ecosystem service functions, and promote sustainable agricultural development.

Optimizing soil conservation through comprehensive benefit assessment in river basins

Land degradation from water erosion poses a significant threat to water security and ecosystem stability, driving global efforts in soil conservation. Quantitative assessment of soil conservation benefits—both on-site and off-site—is crucial for guiding effective conservation strategies. However, existing methodologies often fall short in quantifying the value of these combined benefits. Here, we present a comprehensive framework for quantifying soil conservation service flows in monetary terms, evaluating the effectiveness of both on-site and off-site measures. Applying this framework to the Yellow River Basin (YRB), we employ cost-avoidance algorithms related to soil fertility maintenance, dredging cost reduction, and mitigation of nonpoint source pollution. Our results reveal that while many areas contribute to both on-site and off-site benefits, over half of the YRB relies predominantly on off-site services. By strategically enhancing key regions—which constitute 30% of the basin—we demonstrate that the overall soil conservation service supply can increase by 64.2% over the multi-year average from 2001 to 2020 compared to a consideration of on-site only. These findings underscore the essential role of off-site services in fully understanding soil conservation needs, particularly in large river basins, and the identified priority areas can offer valuable insights for optimizing soil conservation efforts.

Conflict or Coordination? Ecosystem Services Supply and Demand in Chinese Urban Agglomerations

Conflict or Coordination? Ecosystem Services Supply and Demand in Chinese Urban Agglomerations

Long-Term Care in Germany in the Context of the Demographic Transition—An Outlook for the Expenses of Long-Term Care Insurance through 2050

Demographic aging results in a growing number of older people in need of care in many regions all over the world. Germany has witnessed steady population aging for decades, prompting policymakers and other stakeholders to discuss how to fulfill the rapidly growing demand for care workers and finance the rising costs of long-term care. Informed decisions on this matter to ensure the sustainability of the statutory long-term care insurance system require reliable knowledge of the associated future costs. These need to be simulated based on well-designed forecast models that holistically include the complexity of the forecast problem, namely the demographic transition, epidemiological trends, concrete demand for and supply of specific care services, and the respective costs. Care risks heavily depend on demographics, both in absolute terms and according to severity. The number of persons in need of care, disaggregated by severity of disability, in turn, is the main driver of the remuneration that is paid by long-term care insurance. Therefore, detailed forecasts of the population and care rates are important ingredients for forecasts of long-term care insurance expenditures. We present a novel approach based on a stochastic demographic cohort-component approach that includes trends in age- and sex-specific care rates and the demand for specific care services, given changing preferences over the life course. The model is executed for Germany until the year 2050 as a case study.

Quality Improvement Decisions in Service Supply Chains with Collaborative and Free-Riding Behaviors

The dominant position of a member within a service supply chain plays a crucial role in fostering a willingness to improve service quality. Consequently, this study examines a service supply chain comprising a supplier and an integrator, aiming to investigate the influence of four different power structures, namely, supplier-led, integrator-led, supplier–integrator power balance, and supplier–integrator centralized decision, on the decision-making process for service quality improvement by members. The findings highlight that the optimal willingness to improve service quality in a service supply chain is not necessarily infinitely close to 100%, and is influenced by factors such as revenue share, cost, effect, and dominant position. In cases where the collaborative improvement effect is weak, even the dominant member may display a limited willingness, rendering centralized decision-making meaningless. If the collaborative improvement effect surpasses the combined independent improvement effects, the dominant position can help strengthen willingness, although it may not always result in higher profits. Conversely, a power-balanced scenario can be advantageous in achieving the highest profit for the entire supply chain.