Mortgage Supply Research Articles

Local Agglomeration and Household Mortgage Debt

Using detailed household data, we find that households working in locally agglomerated economies have high mortgage loans and are more likely to have mortgage loans. Channel testing shows that local agglomeration increases housing and mortgage demand as well as mortgage supply. The increase in mortgage loans is driven by purchases of larger houses and smaller down payments. Mechanism analyses document that local agglomeration affects mortgage loans by increasing career upward potential and providing downside protection. Specifically, we find that the impact of local agglomeration is stronger for skilled employees with enhanced prospects. In addition, local agglomeration weakens the negative relation between unemployment and mortgage loans, which supports the downside-protection role of local agglomeration. These results hold under instrumental variables analysis, difference-in-difference analysis, and a set of robustness checks. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of local labor market composition in household mortgage debt. This paper was accepted by Kay Giesecke, finance. Funding: F. F. Chen acknowledges the financial support provided by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities; the MOE Project of Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Science in University [Grant 22JJD790094]; and the 111 Project [Grant B18033]. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.03486 .

The role of FinTech lenders in mortgage market: Evidence from corporate relocations

This study investigates how FinTech lenders respond to the surge in mortgage demand caused by corporate headquarter relocations. We find that FinTech lenders tend to increase mortgage supply and loosen underwriting criteria as compared to non-FinTech lenders. The competitive advantage obtained from mortgage securitization enables FinTech lenders to capture growth opportunities.

Reexamining the 'Role of the Community Reinvestment Act in Mortgage Supply and the U.S. Housing Boom'

Concerns have lingered since the 2007 subprime crisis that government housing policies promote risky mortgage lending. The first peer-reviewed evidence of a causal effect was published by the Review of Financial Studies in a paper (Saadi, 2020) linking the crisis to changes in the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) in 1995. A review of that paper, however, shows that it misrepresents the policy changes as having taken effect in mid-1998, 2.5 years after they were implemented. When the correct timing is used, a similar analysis yields no evidence of a relationship between CRA and riskier mortgage lending. Instead, the results are shown to reflect an unrelated confounding event, the first collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market following Russia’s debt default in August 1998.

Credit supply shocks, home purchase volume, and borrowing behavior

AbstractWe exploit the 2007 private label securitization (PLS) freeze as a quasi‐experiment to study the impact of a negative credit supply shock on home purchases and borrowing behavior. Using a difference‐in‐differences estimator, we show that a negative supply shock to first‐lien mortgages has little impact on the volume of purchases financed with a mortgage, but significantly reduces the average first‐lien loan balance. Much of this reduction in loan balances is the result of increased bunching at the conforming loan limit that is achieved through a combination of greater second mortgage utilization and larger downpayments. Importantly, we find significant heterogeneity in the response to the mortgage supply shock across borrower characteristics and house price levels. Home purchase volume does decline after the shock for less creditworthy borrowers and in expensive locations. The reduction in first‐lien balances is fairly uniform across borrower types, however, the effect is slightly more acute in less expensive areas. Our results suggest that financial market frictions (e.g., downpayment constraints, imperfect credit) play an important role in determining how credit supply shocks impact housing purchases and borrowing behavior.

Peer-to-Peer Lending as a Determinant of Federal Housing Administration-Insured Mortgages to Meet Sustainable Development Goals

In this paper, we investigate the influential factors of Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage loans, focusing our research interest on peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, the most successful FinTech lending model. We consider P2P lending an alternative source of financing that marginal borrowers use to pay the increased mortgage down payment, making them eligible to receive a mortgage from conventional banks. In other words, we examine whether and to what extent P2P lending has a positive impact on the FHA loans volume by providing the ability to circumvent the loan-to-value (LTV) cap policy. As a result, P2P lending can be seen as a means for ”rationed” borrowers to have access to the market by reducing inequalities and promoting financial inclusion, thus achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We employ hand-collected data from FHA mortgages, P2P loans, and other economic factors from all 50 U.S. states during 2007–2017 and use panel data techniques for this purpose. Research shows that P2P lending, GDP per capita, population growth, broad money growth rate, interest rate, unemployment rate, new housing units, and consumer confidence Index produce effects on FHA loans. We show that P2P lending, a nonconventional determinant, is causally associated with a significant increase in the count and volume of FHA loans, implying that P2P lending has a positive impact on them. The ability of P2P to bypass mortgage supply constraints (tightened LTV caps) by providing small loans to borrowers to meet the increased down payment requirements is very important to policy-makers, as it shows that constraining the volume of mortgage loans may be not achieved. Macroprudential tools designed to control credit growth may prove ineffective, as the use of alternative forms of lending helps circumvent them and ultimately leads to excessive household leverage with all the risks that it poses to the financial system.

Release of a liquidity regulation: What do we learn for credit and house prices?

This paper studies the effects of the release of a limit on banks’ maturity transformation – akin to the Net Stable Funding Ratio – for mortgage supply and house prices. After the regulatory easing, credit supply increased only for the banks that were previously constrained by the regulation and not for the others. We also show that the expansion in mortgages triggered by the deregulation accelerated house prices. The effect was channeled through higher demand for housing and the relaxation of borrowers’ financial constraints. Even though the impact of the credit supply shock persisted, the interaction between credit and house prices was not conducive to a housing market overheating.

Policy-Induced Suburbanization: Mass-Produced Housing and Location Choices in Tijuana, Mexico

ABSTRACT Mexican cities began an urban expansion process fueled principally by public mortgage supply in the early 2000s. The new urban landscape, comprising mass-produced suburban housing developments for low-income families, deepened socioeconomic differences. For years, developers have claimed land prices are the reason for suburban expansion in Mexico, not policy-enabled construction economies. This study tests the hypothesis that cost reduction strategies through scale economies explain the suburban location and the homogeneous landscape built under the reformed mortgage system. Using data on housing production costs for Tijuana, the results show that building homes using technology developed during policy implementation yields scale economies and reduces building costs. Additionally, statistics on housing developers’ location decisions illustrate how production economies have contributed to a landscape that increased segregation, exclusion, and housing vacancy in Mexican cities.

Banking Regulatory Constraints and Personal Bankruptcy Filings in the US

ABSTRACT The economic well-being of a household depends on its access to credit and also its access to a legal system for managing over-indebtedness. Our hypothesis is that the removal of regulatory constraints on a bank’s ability to expand in new geographic markets increases households’ access to credit, which in turn, contributes to a rise in consumer defaults. In the US, we find a net increase in Chapter 13 bankruptcies following a loosening of a state’s restrictions on multi-branch banking, compared to the increase in Chapter 13 bankruptcies in states that did not change their banking rules. The increased mortgage lending after branch deregulation helps explain this rise in Chapter 13 filings, suggesting that homeowners use the Chapter 13 code to save their houses. Further, the effects of the mortgage supply channel are greater in areas with low bank concentration. Overall, our findings are relevant to policymakers in their efforts to either set up a new personal insolvency regime or modify the existing bankruptcy process.

Delays in Banks’ Loan Loss Provisioning and Economic Downturns: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market

ABSTRACTI study whether banks’ loan loss provisioning contributes to economic downturns, by examining the U.S. housing market. Specifically, I examine the aggregate effects of banks’ delayed loan loss recognition (DLR) on house prices during the Great Recession and the channels through which these potential effects arose. I construct ZIP‐code‐level exposure to banks’ DLR before the crisis and compare high‐ and low‐exposure ZIP codes during the crisis to examine the aggregate effects of banks’ DLR on the housing market. I find that high‐exposure ZIP codes experienced larger decreases in mortgage supply, larger increases in distressed sales, and larger decreases in house prices during the crisis. In addition, I conduct individual bank‐level analyses and find that high‐DLR banks reduced their mortgage supply more than low‐DLR banks, and mortgages issued by high‐DLR banks were more likely to become distressed during the crisis. Taken together, these findings suggest that banks’ DLR was associated with nontrivial effects on the housing market during the Great Recession, and the effects of DLR on house prices were likely driven by both the credit‐crunch and distressed‐sales channels.

Housing affordability, borrowing constraints and tenure choice in Korea

ABSTRACT This paper analyses the linkages between housing affordability and borrowing constraints, and the impact of the latter on housing tenure decisions in Korean cities during the period 2006–2016. The conventional aggregate measures of housing affordability provide a mixed picture. The price to income ratio (PIR) increased in major cities but the home purchase affordability, or repayment affordability improved between 2006 and 2016. Also, the access to mortgage finance increased substantially thanks to the expansion of mortgage supply, low interest rates and lenient macroprudential regulations. We investigate whether and how these changes affected household home purchases using the household-level micro data from the 2006 and 2016 Korea Housing Surveys. We construct the variable indicating the degree of borrowing constraint in terms of wealth each household faces and show that the number of borrowing-constrained households dropped significantly between 2006 and 2016. We then investigate the effect of the wealth constraint by including a measure of the degree of the borrowing constraint as an explanatory variable in the tenure choice equation, together with other key variables such as the cost of owning relative to renting. Estimation results confirm that, as expected, the propensity to home purchases declines if households are judged as wealth-constrained. It was also found that the detrimental effect of the wealth constraint on home ownership increased significantly, particularly for severely constrained households, while the homeownership rates for others improved during our study period. Our findings suggest that affordability measures that do not consider borrowing constraints may not be very helpful in gauging affordability of home purchases at the household level.

Prudential Policies, Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Italy

We estimate the causal effect of a mortgage supply expansion on house prices by using an exogenous change in prudential regulation: the abolition in 2006 of a banks' maturity transformation limit. After the repeal of the prudential rule, credit increased only for the banks that were previously constrained by the regulation, while it remained unchanged for the other banks. Such differential response rules out demand-based explanations and fully identify the rule abolition as an exogenous shock that we exploit as an instrument for mortgage supply expansion. We estimate the elasticity of house price growth to new mortgage credit to be close to 5 percent. Our results also show that the effect of a mortgage supply expansion on house prices significantly differs across municipalities' and borrowers' characteristics.

The supply side of product differentiation in the Italian mortgage market

PurposeThis paper aims to propose a new indicator of product differentiation in the mortgage market and use it to examine how the double crisis, local market competition and bank-specific characteristics have influenced the supply of non-conventional mortgages in Italy.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses a special Bank of Italy’s survey on 400 Italian banks over the period 2006–2013, to compute a new indicator for product differentiation in the mortgage market. This paper considers mortgage with non-conventional characteristics: loan-to-value ratio greater than 80%; duration longer than 30 years or with a flexible maturity. This paper estimates probit and ordinary least squares (OLS) models using panel data at bank-time level.FindingsThe findings suggest that during the double crisis that hit the Italian economy between 2008 and 2013, the diversification process in the Italian household mortgage market slowed down. Controlling for banks’ and local markets’ this study finds that larger, less risky banks and those that have adopted scoring systems are more likely to offer non-conventional mortgages; moreover, banks operating in more competitive markets and in markets where other banks offer non-conventional loans tend to diversify their supply more. Most of these indications are confirmed by analyzing the quantities actually granted. These results suggest that the structure of the local markets does matter, and that there could be a non-price competition effect among banks in providing differentiated mortgage contracts.Originality/valueThe indicator, computed using data at bank level drawn from a special Bank of Italy’s survey, goes beyond the standard approach on product differentiation followed in the empirical literature, mainly base on the dichotomy between fixed and variable lending rates. Furthermore, to best of the authors’ knowledge, so far there is no empirical evidence on the supply-side factors that influenced the diversification of mortgages’ contractual terms during the crisis; particularly, there is no evidence on the role of local market competition and bank-specific features. This paper contributes to fill this gap in the literature.

How do house prices respond to mortgage supply?

Abstract We examine the impact of household mortgages on house prices. Using biannual data on Italian cities in the period 2003–2015, we build an exogenous and fully data-driven indicator of mortgage supply stance and use it as instrument for actual extended mortgages. Our results indicate that mortgages have a positive and significant causal effect on house prices, with an estimated elasticity of around 0.1. The estimated effect is larger during the expansionary phase of the housing cycle. We also find evidence of significant spatial heterogeneity: mortgages push real estate values more in cities where the housing supply curve is less elastic or households are more dependent on external finance.

정책모기지의 공급효과와 사회적 가치 제고 방안

정책모기지의 공급효과와 사회적 가치 제고 방안

Role of the Community Reinvestment Act in Mortgage Supply and the U.S. Housing Boom

Abstract This paper studies the role of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) in the U.S. housing boom-bust cycle. I find that enhanced CRA enforcement in 1998 increased the growth rate of mortgage lending by CRA-regulated banks to CRA-eligible census tracts. I show that during the boom period house price growth was higher in the eligible census tracts because of the shift in mortgage supply of regulated banks. Consequently, these census tracts experienced a worse housing bust. I find that CRA-induced mortgages were awarded to borrowers with lower FICO scores and were more frequently delinquent.

How do House Prices Respond to Mortgage Supply?

We examine the impact of household mortgages on house prices. Using biannual data on Italian cities for the years 2003-2015, we build an exogenous and fully data-driven indicator of mortgage supply stances and use it as an instrument for actual extended mortgages. Our results indicate that mortgages have a positive and significant causal effect on house prices, with an estimated elasticity of around 0.1. The estimated effect is larger during the expansionary phase of the housing cycle. We also find evidence of significant spatial heterogeneity: mortgages push real estate values higher in cities where the housing supply curve is less elastic or households are more dependent on external finance.

What Can We Learn About Mortgage Supply from Online Data?

We exploit a novel dataset on mortgages offered by banks through Italy’s main online mortgage broker, which works with banks representing over 80 per cent of mortgages granted, to gain an up-to-date assessment of loan supply conditions. Characteristics of mortgages are reported for about 85,000 borrower-contract profiles, constant over time, available at the beginning of each month starting from March 2018. We document that riskier applications, characterized by high loan-to-value ratios and long maturity, are, on average, offered by a smaller number of banks that charge higher interest rates. Online banks tend to provide better price conditions than traditional intermediaries. We use the online rates offered to nowcast bank-level official (MIR) interest rate statistics, available only several weeks later. By using both regression analysis and machine learning algorithms, we show that the rates offered have significant predictive content for fixed-rate contracts, also after controlling for time-varying demand conditions, market reference rates, and unobserved time-invariant bank characteristics. Machine learning algorithms provide further improvements over regression models in out of sample predictions.

Partial Deregulation and Competition: Effects on Risky Mortgage Origination

We exploit the preemption of national banks from state laws against predatory lending by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) as a quasi-experiment to study the effect of deregulation and its interaction with competition on the supply of complex mortgages. Following the preemption ruling, national banks significantly increased their origination of loans with prepayment penalties relative to national banks in states without anti-predatory-lending laws. We highlight a competition channel: in counties where OCC-regulated lenders had larger market shares, non-OCC-regulated lenders responded by increasing their supply of contracts with riskier features, such as deferred amortization, which were not restricted by the state anti-predatory-lending law. Non-OCC lenders were able to lure borrowers into these higher-margin contracts by increasing their appeal with teaser rates. This paper was accepted by Tyler Shumway, finance.

How Does Rural Household Differentiation Affect the Availability of Farmland Management Right Mortgages in China?

ABSTRACT This study employs the Cov-AHP method to determine the weight of each indicator based on the evaluation indicator system for the differentiation level of rural households and adopts a bivariate probit model to estimate the influence of rural households’ differentiation on the availability of farmland management right mortgage. The survey data used were collected for 4,481 rural households in China (Shaanxi Province, Shandong Province, Henan Province, and Ningxia Province). The results showed that the overall household differentiation level has statistically significant impacts on the availability to farmers of farmland management right mortgages. There are significant differences in the capital levels affecting the nominal demand and supply of farmland management right mortgages. More specifically, some rural households with higher physical capital and financial capital have more significant nominal demand for farmland management right mortgages, while rural households with lower financial capital and higher social capital have a higher possibility of getting farmland management right mortgages. In addition, the rural households’ gender, land approval, loan policy, and location have a statistically significant and positive impact on rural households’ demand for this financing, while the rural households’ gender, education, land transfer, per capita income, social interaction, loan policy, loan experience, and location have a statistically significant and positive impact on the supply of this financing to rural households.

Do Delays in Banks' Loan Loss Provisioning Affect Economic Downturns? Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market

I study whether banks’ loan loss provisioning contributed to economic downturns by examining the U.S. housing market. Specifically, I examine the aggregate effects of banks’ delayed loan loss recognition (DLR) on house prices during the Great Recession and the channels through which these potential effects arose. I construct ZIP-code-level exposure to banks’ DLR before the crisis and compare high- and low-exposure ZIP codes during the crisis to examine the aggregate effects of banks’ DLR on the housing market. I find that high-exposure ZIP codes experienced larger decreases in mortgage supply, larger increases in distressed sales, and larger decreases in house prices during the crisis. In addition, I conduct individual bank-level analyses and find that high-DLR banks reduced their mortgage supply more than low-DLR banks, and mortgages issued by high-DLR banks were more likely to become distressed during the crisis. These findings suggest that the aggregate effects on house prices were likely driven by both the credit-crunch and distressed-sales channels.