Superior Predictive Capability Research Articles

Future changes in soil salinization across Central Asia under CMIP6 forcing scenarios

AbstractSoil salinization is a critical environmental and socio‐economic concern with global implications, and its severity is expected to amplify under changing climate. The impact of climate change on salinization in Central Asia is still not fully understood. This study addresses this gap by employing a digital soil mapping (DSM) framework. Cubist, random forest (RF), and quantile regression forests (QRF) are utilized to project variations in soil surface salinity (0‐10 cm) in Central Asia from 2025 to 2100 under two shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs): SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. These models are developed using data from 20 global climate models (GCMs) obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results reveal that the RF model exhibits superior predictive capability in estimating soil salinity. RF performed on the calibration set with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.86, root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.84 and 9.90 dS m−1, ratio of performance to interquartile distance (RPIQ) of 3.09 and 3.07, and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.86. The multi‐GCM ensemble means revealed the potential for varying degrees of salinization in Central Asia, with higher levels predominantly observed in the southeast and southwest of the study area, particularly downstream of the river and in the lakeside areas. Temporal analysis of soil salinity evolution reveals an overall increase in salinity across the region, with more notable changes projected under SSP5‐8.5. Specifically, the projected increase rate in soil salinity for Central Asia was 0.0005 dS m−1/year under SSP2‐4.5 and 0.01 dS m−1/year under SSP5‐8.5. Turkmenistan is notable for possessing the highest regional average of soil salinity, with the exception of a declining trend observed within this area. The remaining regions of Central Asia exhibit an upward trend in average soil salinity, particularly noteworthy under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario, where variations in soil salinity are more obvious. These findings hold significant potential in enhancing our understanding of how Central Asia responds to global change, advances toward sustainable development, and enhances comprehension of the dynamics within the region.

Future changes in soil salinization across Central Asia under CMIP6 forcing scenarios

AbstractSoil salinization is a critical environmental and socio‐economic concern with global implications, and its severity is expected to amplify under changing climate. The impact of climate change on salinization in Central Asia is still not fully understood. This study addresses this gap by employing a digital soil mapping (DSM) framework. Cubist, random forest (RF), and quantile regression forests (QRF) are utilized to project variations in soil surface salinity (0‐10 cm) in Central Asia from 2025 to 2100 under two shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs): SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. These models are developed using data from 20 global climate models (GCMs) obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results reveal that the RF model exhibits superior predictive capability in estimating soil salinity. RF performed on the calibration set with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.86, root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.84 and 9.90 dS m−1, ratio of performance to interquartile distance (RPIQ) of 3.09 and 3.07, and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.86. The multi‐GCM ensemble means revealed the potential for varying degrees of salinization in Central Asia, with higher levels predominantly observed in the southeast and southwest of the study area, particularly downstream of the river and in the lakeside areas. Temporal analysis of soil salinity evolution reveals an overall increase in salinity across the region, with more notable changes projected under SSP5‐8.5. Specifically, the projected increase rate in soil salinity for Central Asia was 0.0005 dS m−1/year under SSP2‐4.5 and 0.01 dS m−1/year under SSP5‐8.5. Turkmenistan is notable for possessing the highest regional average of soil salinity, with the exception of a declining trend observed within this area. The remaining regions of Central Asia exhibit an upward trend in average soil salinity, particularly noteworthy under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario, where variations in soil salinity are more obvious. These findings hold significant potential in enhancing our understanding of how Central Asia responds to global change, advances toward sustainable development, and enhances comprehension of the dynamics within the region.

Analyzing speed-difference impact on freeway joint injury severities of Leading-Following vehicles using statistical and data-driven models

Rear-end (RE) crashes are notably prevalent and pose a substantial risk on freeways. This paper explores the correlation between speed difference among the following and leading vehicles (Δν) and RE crash risk. Three joint models, comprising both uncorrelated and correlated joint random-parameters bivariate probit (RPBP) approaches (statistical methods) and a cross-stitch multilayer perceptron (CS-MLP) network (a data-driven method), were estimated and compared against three separate models: Support Vector Machines (SVM), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and MLP networks (all data-driven methods). Data on 15,980 two-vehicle RE crashes were collected over a two-year period, from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2022, considering two possible levels of injury severity: no injury and injury/fatality for both drivers of following and leading vehicles. The comparative performance analysis demonstrates the superior predictive capability of the CS-MLP network over the uncorrelated/correlated joint RPBP model, SVM, XGBoost, and MLP networks in terms of recall, F-1 Score, and AUC. Significantly, numerous shared variables influence the injury severity outcomes for the following and leading vehicles across both statistical and data-driven approaches. Among these factors, the following vehicle (a truck) and the leading vehicle (a passenger car) demonstrate contrasting effects on the injury severity outcomes for both vehicles. Furthermore, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values from the CS-MLP network visually show the relationship between Δν and injury severity, revealing non-linear trends unlike the average effects shown by statistical methods. They indicate that the least injury outcomes for both following and leading vehicles occurs at a Δν of 0 to 10 mph, matching observed patterns in RE crash data. Additionally, a marked variation in the trend of SHAP values for the two vehicles is noted as the speed difference increases. Therefore, the findings affirm the superior performance of joint model development and substantiate the non-linear impacts of speed difference on injury outcomes. The adoption of dynamic speed control measures is recommended to mitigate the injury outcomes involved in two-vehicle RE crashes.

Comparative analysis of prognostic scoring systems in predicting severity and outcomes of Omicron variant COVID-19 pneumonia.

The global spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) underscores the urgent need for reliable methods to forecast the disease's severity and outcome, thereby facilitating timely interventions and reducing mortality rates. This study focuses on evaluating the clinical and laboratory profiles of patients with Omicron variant-induced COVID-19 pneumonia and assessing the efficacy of various scoring systems in prognosticating disease severity and mortality. In this retrospective analysis, we examined the clinical records of 409 individuals diagnosed with Omicron variant COVID-19 pneumonia. We documented the Pneumonia Severity Index, CURB-65, and MuLBSTA scores within the first 24 h and analyzed the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for each scoring system to ascertain their predictive accuracy for disease severity and fatality risk. The cohort's median age was 78 years, predominantly presenting with fever, cough, expectoration, fatigue, and gastrointestinal symptoms. Factors such as expectoration, fatigue, Glasgow Coma Scale score, lactate dehydrogenase levels, procalcitonin, creatinine levels, and co-occurrence of acute respiratory distress syndrome were identified as independent predictors of disease severity. Furthermore, age, oxygenation index, glucose levels, lactate dehydrogenase, and septic shock were independently associated with mortality. For severe disease prediction, the CURB-65, PSI, and MuLBSTA scores demonstrated sensitivities of 65.9%, 63.8%, and 79.7%, respectively, with specificities of 63.8%, 76.8%, and 60.9%, and AUROCs of 0.707, 0.750, and 0.728. To predict mortality risk, these scores at cutoffs of 1.5, 102.5, and 12.5 exhibited sensitivities of 83.3%, 96.3%, and 70.4%, specificities of 59.4%, 60.8%, and 65.4%, and AUROCs of 0.787, 0.850, and 0.736, respectively. The study cohort predominantly comprised elderly individuals with pre-existing health conditions. Elevated lactate dehydrogenase emerged as a significant marker for both disease severity and prognosis, sputum production, gastrointestinal symptoms, GCS score, creatinine, PCT, and ARDS as independent predictors of disease severity, and age, oxygenation index, glucose levels, and septic shock as independent mortality predictors in COVID-19 pneumonia patients. Among the scoring systems evaluated, Pneumonia Severity Index demonstrated superior predictive capability for both disease severity and mortality, suggesting its utility in forecasting the clinical outcomes of Omicron variant COVID-19 pneumonia.

Machine learning survival prediction using tumor lipid metabolism genes for osteosarcoma

Osteosarcoma is a primary malignant tumor that commonly affects children and adolescents, with a poor prognosis. The existence of tumor heterogeneity leads to different molecular subtypes and survival outcomes. Recently, lipid metabolism has been identified as a critical characteristic of cancer. Therefore, our study aims to identify osteosarcoma's lipid metabolism molecular subtype and develop a signature for survival outcome prediction. Four multicenter cohorts—TARGET-OS, GSE21257, GSE39058, and GSE16091—were amalgamated into a unified Meta-Cohort. Through consensus clustering, novel molecular subtypes within Meta-Cohort patients were delineated. Subsequent feature selection processes, encompassing analyses of differentially expressed genes between subtypes, univariate Cox analysis, and StepAIC, were employed to pinpoint biomarkers related to lipid metabolism in TARGET-OS. We selected the most effective algorithm for constructing a Lipid Metabolism-Related Signature (LMRS) by utilizing four machine-learning algorithms reconfigured into ten unique combinations. This selection was based on achieving the highest concordance index (C-index) in the test cohort of GSE21257, GSE39058, and GSE16091. We identified two distinct lipid metabolism molecular subtypes in osteosarcoma patients, C1 and C2, with significantly different survival rates. C1 is characterized by increased cholesterol, fatty acid synthesis, and ketone metabolism. In contrast, C2 focuses on steroid hormone biosynthesis, arachidonic acid, and glycerolipid and linoleic acid metabolism. Feature selection in the TARGET-OS identified 12 lipid metabolism genes, leading to a model predicting osteosarcoma patient survival. The LMRS, based on the 12 identified genes, consistently accurately predicted prognosis across TARGET-OS, testing cohorts, and Meta-Cohort. Incorporating 12 published signatures, LMRS showed robust and significantly superior predictive capability. Our results offer a promising tool to enhance the clinical management of osteosarcoma, potentially leading to improved clinical outcomes.

A Stock Index Futures Price Prediction Approach Based on the MULTI-GARCH-LSTM Mixed Model

As a type of financial derivative, the price fluctuation of futures is influenced by a multitude of factors, including macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, and market sentiment. The interaction of these factors makes the future trend become complex and difficult to predict. However, for investors, the ability to accurately predict the future trend of stock index futures price is directly related to the correctness of investment decisions and investment returns. Therefore, predicting the stock index futures market remains a leading and critical issue in the field of finance. To improve the accuracy of predicting stock index futures price, this paper introduces an innovative forecasting method by combining the strengths of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and various Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-family models namely, MULTI-GARCH-LSTM. This integrated approach is specifically designed to tackle the challenges posed by the nonstationary and nonlinear characteristics of stock index futures price series. This synergy not only enhances the model’s ability to capture a wide range of market behaviors but also significantly improves the precision of future price predictions, catering to the intricate nature of financial time series data. Initially, we extract insights into the volatility characteristics, such as the aggregation of volatility in futures closing prices, by formulating a model from the GARCH family. Subsequently, the LSTM model decodes the complex nonlinear relationships inherent in the futures price series and incorporates assimilated volatility characteristics to predict future prices. The efficacy of this model is validated by applying it to an authentic dataset of gold futures. The empirical findings demonstrate that the performance of our proposed MULTI-GARCH-LSTM hybrid model consistently surpasses that of the individual models, thereby confirming the model’s effectiveness and superior predictive capability.

Using a clinical narrative-aware pre-trained language model for predicting emergency department patient disposition and unscheduled return visits

The increasing prevalence of overcrowding in Emergency Departments (EDs) threatens the effective delivery of urgent healthcare. Mitigation strategies include the deployment of monitoring systems capable of tracking and managing patient disposition to facilitate appropriate and timely care, which subsequently reduces patient revisits, optimizes resource allocation, and enhances patient outcomes. This study used ∼ 250,000 emergency department visit records from Taipei Medical University-Shuang Ho Hospital to develop a natural language processing model using BlueBERT, a biomedical domain-specific pre-trained language model, to predict patient disposition status and unplanned readmissions. Data preprocessing and the integration of both structured and unstructured data were central to our approach. Compared to other models, BlueBERT outperformed due to its pre-training on a diverse range of medical literature, enabling it to better comprehend the specialized terminology, relationships, and context present in ED data. We found that translating Chinese-English clinical narratives into English and textualizing numerical data into categorical representations significantly improved the prediction of patient disposition (AUROC = 0.9014) and 72-hour unscheduled return visits (AUROC = 0.6475). The study concludes that the BlueBERT-based model demonstrated superior prediction capabilities, surpassing the performance of prior patient disposition predictive models, thus offering promising applications in the realm of ED clinical practice.

Establishment and validation of an artificial intelligence web application for predicting postoperative in-hospital mortality in patients with hip fracture: a National cohort study of 52,707 cases.

In-hospital mortality following hip fractures is a significant concern, and accurate prediction of this outcome is crucial for appropriate clinical management. Nonetheless, there is a lack of effective prediction tools in clinical practice. By utilizing artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques, this study aims to develop a predictive model that can assist clinicians in identifying geriatric hip fracture patients at a higher risk of in-hospital mortality. A total of 52,707 geriatric hip fracture patients treated with surgery from 90 hospitals were included in this study. The primary outcome was postoperative in-hospital mortality. The patients were randomly divided into two groups, with a ratio of 7:3. The majority of patients, assigned to the training cohort, were used to develop the AI models. The remaining patients, assigned to the validation cohort, were used to validate the models. Various machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), naïve Bayesian (NB), neural network (NN), eXGBoosting machine (eXGBM), and random forest (RF), were employed for model development. A comprehensive scoring system, incorporating 10 evaluation metrics, was developed to assess the prediction performance, with higher scores indicating superior predictive capability. Based on the best machine learning-based model, an AI application was developed on the Internet. In addition, a comparative testing of prediction performance between doctors and the AI application. The eXGBM model exhibited the best prediction performance, with an AUC of 0.908 (95% CI: 0.881-0.932), as well as the highest accuracy (0.820), precision (0.817), specificity (0.814), and F1 score (0.822), and the lowest Brier score (0.120) and log loss (0.374). Additionally, the model showed favorable calibration, with a slope of 0.999 and an intercept of 0.028. According to the scoring system incorporating 10 evaluation metrics, the eXGBM model achieved the highest score (56), followed by the RF model (48) and NN model (41). The LR, DT, and NB models had total scores of 27, 30, and 13, respectively. The AI application has been deployed online at https://in-hospitaldeathinhipfracture-l9vhqo3l55fy8dkdvuskvu.streamlit.app/, based on the eXGBM model. The comparative testing revealed that the AI application's predictive capabilities significantly outperformed those of the doctors in terms of AUC values (0.908 vs. 0.682, P<0.001). The eXGBM model demonstrates promising predictive performance in assessing the risk of postoperative in-hospital mortality among geriatric hip fracture patients. The developed AI model serves as a valuable tool to enhance clinical decision-making.

ADDGCN: A Novel Approach with Down-Sampling Dynamic Graph Convolution and Multi-Head Attention for Traffic Flow Forecasting

An essential component of autonomous transportation system management and decision-making is precise and real-time traffic flow forecast. Predicting future traffic conditionsis a difficult undertaking because of the intricate spatio-temporal relationships involved. Existing techniques often employ separate modules to model spatio-temporal features independently, thereby neglecting the temporally and spatially heterogeneous features among nodes. Simultaneously, many existing methods overlook the long-term relationships included in traffic data, subsequently impacting prediction accuracy. We introduce a novel method to traffic flow forecasting based on the combination of the feature-augmented down-sampling dynamic graph convolutional network and multi-head attention mechanism. Our method presents a feature augmentation mechanism to integrate traffic data features at different scales. The subsampled convolutional network enhances information interaction in spatio-temporal data, and the dynamic graph convolutional network utilizes the generated graph structure to better simulate the dynamic relationships between nodes, enhancing the model’s capacity for capturing spatial heterogeneity. Through the feature-enhanced subsampled dynamic graph convolutional network, the model can simultaneously capture spatio-temporal dependencies, and coupled with the process of multi-head temporal attention, it achieves long-term traffic flow forecasting. The findings demonstrate that the ADDGCN model demonstrates superior prediction capabilities on two real datasets (PEMS04 and PEMS08). Notably, for the PEMS04 dataset, compared to the best baseline, the performance of ADDGCN is improved by 2.46% in MAE and 2.90% in RMSE; for the PEMS08 dataset, compared to the best baseline, the ADDGCN performance is improved by 1.50% in RMSE, 3.46% in MAE, and 0.21% in MAPE, indicating our method’s superior performance.

Enhancing Soil Moisture Forecasting Accuracy with REDF-LSTM: Integrating Residual En-Decoding and Feature Attention Mechanisms

This study introduces an innovative deep learning model, Residual-EnDecode-Feedforward Attention Mechanism-Long Short-Term Memory (REDF-LSTM), designed to overcome the high uncertainty challenges faced by traditional soil moisture prediction methods. The REDF-LSTM model, by integrating a residual learning encoder–decoder LSTM layer, enhanced LSTM layers, and feedforward attention, not only captures the deep features of time series data but also optimizes the model’s ability to identify key influencing factors, including land surface features, atmospheric conditions, and other static environmental variables. Unlike existing methods, the innovation of this model lies in its first-time combination of the residual learning encoder–decoder and feedforward attention mechanisms in the soil moisture prediction field. It delves into the complex patterns of time series through the encoder–decoder structure and accurately locates key influencing factors through the feedforward attention mechanism, significantly improving predictive performance. The choice to combine the feedforward attention mechanism and encoder–decoder with the LSTM model is to fully leverage their advantages in processing complex data sequences and enhancing the model’s focus on important features, aiming for more accurate soil moisture prediction. After comparison with current advanced models such as EDLSTM, FAMLSTM, and GANBiLSTM, our REDF-LSTM demonstrated the best performance. Compared to traditional LSTM models, it achieved an average improvement of 13.07% in R2, 20.98% in RMSE, 24.86% in BIAS, and 11.1% in KGE key performance indicators, fully proving its superior predictive capability and potential application value in precision agriculture and ecosystem management.

Error detection for radiotherapy planning validation based on deep learning networks.

Quality assurance (QA) of patient-specific treatment plans for intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) necessitates prior validation. However, the standard methodology exhibits deficiencies and lacks sensitivity in the analysis of positional dose distribution data, leading to difficulties in accurately identifying reasons for plan verification failure. This issue complicates and impedes the efficiency of QA tasks. The primary aim of this research is to utilize deep learning algorithms for the extraction of 3D dose distribution maps and the creation of a predictive model for error classification across multiple machine models, treatment methodologies, and tumor locations. We devised five categories of validation plans (normal, gantry error, collimator error, couch error, and dose error), conforming to tolerance limits of different accuracy levels and employing 3D dose distribution data from a sample of 94 tumor patients. A CNN model was then constructed to predict the diverse error types, with predictions compared against the gamma pass rate (GPR) standard employing distinct thresholds (3%, 3mm; 3%, 2mm; 2%, 2mm) to evaluate the model's performance. Furthermore, we appraised the model's robustness by assessing its functionality across diverse accelerators. The accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores of CNN model performance were 0.907, 0.925, 0.907, and 0.908, respectively. Meanwhile, the performance on another device is 0.900, 0.918, 0.900, and 0.898. In addition, compared to the GPR method, the CNN model achieved better results in predicting different types of errors. When juxtaposed with the GPR methodology, the CNN model exhibits superior predictive capability for classification in the validation of the radiation therapy plan on different devices. By using this model, the plan validation failures can be detected more rapidly and efficiently, minimizing the time required for QA tasks and serving as a valuable adjunct to overcome the constraints of the GPR method.

Predicting coronary artery severity in patients undergoing coronary computed tomographic angiography: Insights from pan-immune inflammation value and atherogenic index of plasma

Background and aimsCoronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) is pivotal in diagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD). We explored the link between CAD severity and two biomarkers, Pan-Immune Inflammation Value (PIV) and Atherogenic Index of Plasma (AIP), in stable CAD patients. Methods and resultsA retrospective observational study of 409 CCTA patients with stable angina pectoris. Logistic regression identified predictors of severe CAD, stratified by CAD-RADS score. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves evaluated predictive performance. PIV and AIP were significant predictors of severe CAD (PIV: OR 1.002, 95% CI: 1.000–1.004, p < 0.021; AIP: OR 0.963, 95% CI: 0.934–0.993, p < 0.04). AUC values for predicting severe CAD were 0.563 (p < 0.001) for PIV and 0.625 (p < 0.05) for AIP. Combined with age, AUC improved to 0.662 (p < 0.02). ConclusionsPIV and AIP were associated with severe CAD, with AIP demonstrating superior predictive capability. Incorporating AIP into risk assessment could enhance CAD prediction, offering a cost-effective and accessible method for identifying individuals at high risk of coronary atherosclerosis.

Dysregulation of interleukin-8 is involved in the onset and relapse of schizophrenia: An independent validation and meta-analysis

As a major mental health disorder, symptoms of schizophrenia (SCZ) include delusions, reduced motivation, hallucinations, reduced motivation and a variety of cognitive disabilities. Many of these symptoms are now known to be associated with abnormal regulation of the immune system. Low blood levels of cytokines and chemokines have been suggested to be one of the underlying causes of SCZ. However, their biological roles at different stages of SCZ remain unclear. Our objective was to investigate expression patterns of cytokines and chemokines at different stages of onset and relapse in SCZ patients and to conduct an analysis of their relationship to disease progression. We also aimed to identify immune features associated with different disease trajectories in patients with SCZ.Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was used to interrogate the GSE27383 dataset and identify key genes associated with inflammation. These results led us to recruit 36 healthy controls, 40 patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP), and 39 patients with SCZ relapse. Meso Scale Discovery technology was used to independently validate serum levels of 35 cytokines and chemokines. This was followed by a meta-analysis to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the role of interleukin-8 (IL-8/CXCL8) in SCZ.Analysis of the GSE27383 database revealed 3596 genes with distinct expression patterns. A significant portion of these genes were identified as inflammation-related and showed remarkable enrichment in three key pathways: IL-17, cytokine-cytokine receptor, and AGE-RAGE signaling in diabetic complications. We observed co-expression of CXCL8 and IL-16 within these three pathways. In a subsequent analysis of independently validated samples, a notable discrepancy was detected in the inflammatory status between individuals experiencing FEP and those in relapse. In particular, expression of CXCL8 demonstrated superior predictive capability in FEP and relapsed patients. Notably, results of the meta-analysis confirmed that Chinese and European populations were consistent with the overall results (Z = 4.60, P < 0.001; Z = 3.70, P < 0.001). However, in the American subgroup, there was no significant difference in CXCL8 levels between patients with SCZ compared to healthy controls (Z = 1.09, P = 0.277). Our findings suggest that the inflammatory response in patients with SCZ differs across the different stages, with CXCL8 emerging as a potential predictive factor. Collectively, our data suggest that CXCL8 has the potential to serve as a significant immunological signature of SCZ subtypes.Trial registration: The clinical registration number for this trial is ChiCTR2100045240 (Registration Date: 2021/04/09).

5-Hydroxymethylcytosine in Cell-Free DNA Predicts Immunotherapy Response in Lung Cancer.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) drastically improve therapeutic outcomes for lung cancer, but accurately predicting individual patient responses to ICIs remains a challenge. We performed the genome-wide profiling of 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5hmC) in 85 plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) samples from lung cancer patients and developed a 5hmC signature that was significantly associated with progression-free survival (PFS). We built a 5hmC predictive model to quantify the 5hmC level and validated the model in the validation, test, and control sets. Low weighted predictive scores (wp-scores) were significantly associated with a longer PFS compared to high wp-scores in the validation [median 7.6 versus 1.8 months; p = 0.0012; hazard ratio (HR) 0.12; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.03-0.54] and test (median 14.9 versus 3.3 months; p = 0.00074; HR 0.10; 95% CI, 0.02-0.50) sets. Objective response rates in patients with a low or high wp-score were 75.0% (95% CI, 42.8-94.5%) versus 0.0% (95% CI, 0.0-60.2%) in the validation set (p = 0.019) and 80.0% (95% CI, 44.4-97.5%) versus 0.0% (95% CI, 0.0-36.9%) in the test set (p = 0.0011). The wp-scores were also significantly associated with PFS in patients receiving single-agent ICI treatment (p < 0.05). In addition, the 5hmC predictive signature demonstrated superior predictive capability to tumor programmed death-ligand 1 and specificity to ICI treatment response prediction. Moreover, we identified novel 5hmC-associated genes and signaling pathways integral to ICI treatment response in lung cancer. This study provides proof-of-concept evidence that the cfDNA 5hmC signature is a robust biomarker for predicting ICI treatment response in lung cancer.

Machine learning for prediction of acute kidney injury in patients diagnosed with sepsis in critical care.

Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is a common and severe complication in patients diagnosed with sepsis. It is associated with higher mortality rates, prolonged hospital stays, increased utilization of medical resources, and financial burden on patients' families. This study aimed to establish and validate predictive models using machine learning algorithms to accurately predict the occurrence of AKI in patients diagnosed with sepsis. This retrospective study utilized real observational data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database. It included patients aged 18 to 90 years diagnosed with sepsis who were admitted to the ICU for the first time and had hospital stays exceeding 48 hours. Predictive models, employing various machine learning algorithms including Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), EXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Logistic Regression (LR), were developed. The dataset was randomly divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 4:1. A total of 10,575 sepsis patients were included in the analysis, of whom 8,575 (81.1%) developed AKI during hospitalization. A selection of 47 variables was utilized for model construction. The models derived from LightGBM, XGBoost, RF, DT, ANN, SVM, and LR achieved AUCs of 0.801, 0.773, 0.772, 0.737, 0.720, 0.765, and 0.776, respectively. Among these models, LightGBM demonstrated the most superior predictive performance. These machine learning models offer valuable predictive capabilities for identifying AKI in patients diagnosed with sepsis. The LightGBM model, with its superior predictive capability, could aid clinicians in early identification of high-risk patients.

First-Trimester Triglyceride-Glucose Index and Triglyceride/High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol are Predictors of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Among the Four Surrogate Biomarkers of Insulin Resistance.

This study seeks to assess the potential of early pregnancy Triglyceride Glucose Index (TyG), triglyceride to High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-c), Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol to High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol ratio (LDL-C/HDL-C), and Total Cholesterol to High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol ratio (TC/HDL-C) in predicting Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM). A total of 1073 adults singleton pregnant women were enrolled from June 2017 to September 2019. Complete anthropometric data and lipid profiles were measured in the first trimester (before 12 weeks gestation) and a 75g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at 24-28 weeks was performed. Based on OGTT results, participants were categorised into Normal Glucose Tolerance (NGT) group (n=872) and GDM group (n=201). General data, laboratory test results, and surrogate insulin resistance indicators such as TyG index, TG/HDL-C, LDL-C/HDL-C, and TC/HDL-C were documented and compared. To compare differences between the two groups, t-test was used, Spearman correlation analysis and linear regression analysis were performed to establish associations between these indicators and insulin resistance in GDM. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to compare the thresholds of these indicators for predicting GDM during pregnancy and to quantify overall diagnostic accuracy. Individuals with GDM had higher TyG, TG/HDL-C, and LDL-C/HDL-C levels (P < 0.001), but with no significant difference observed in TC/HDL-C. All four ratios were positively correlated with Homeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR), yet only TyG emerged as an independent risk factor for HOMA-IR. The Area under the Curve (AUC) of TyG index (0.692) was comparable to that of HOMA-IR (0.703). The cut-off points for TyG index, TG/HDL-C, and HOMA-IR in predicting GDM were 7.088, 0.831, and 1.8, respectively. HOMA-IR exhibited the highest sensitivity (79.1%), while TyG index (64.3%) and TG/HDL-C ratio (64.3%) demonstrated better specificity compared to HOMA-IR (56.3%). LDL-C/HDL-C and TC/HDL-C offered no discernible predictive advantage. Early pregnancy TyG index and TG/HDL-C can aid in identifying pregnant women at risk for GDM, potentially facilitating early and effective intervention to improve prognosis. TyG index exhibited superior predictive capability compared to TG/HDL-C.

Vasoactive-ventilation-renal (VVR) score: A potential tool for predicting early postoperative outcomes in adult mitral valve surgery

Abstract Background and Aims: Vasoactive-ventilation-renal (VVR) score has been validated in predicting postoperative outcomes in pediatric cardiac surgery. The aim was to evaluate its potential in predicting early postoperative outcomes in adult patients undergoing mitral valve surgery. Material and Methods: A single-center prospective observational study involved 100 patients undergoing mitral valve surgery. We evaluated preoperative variables (Ambler score), VVR, and vasoactive-inotropic score (VIS) on admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and then at 12, 24, and 48 hrs postoperatively. Outcomes assessed were length of stay in ICU (LOS-ICU), length of hospital stay (LOHS), and mortality. The data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression model, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and areas under curve (AUC). Conclusion: Our study showed the potential utility of the VVR score as a powerful tool for predicting early outcomes after mitral valve surgery, with VVR at 48 hrs having superior predictive capability.

A Predictive Network-Based Immune Checkpoint Blockade Immunotherapeutic Signature Optimizing Patient Selection and Treatment Strategies.

Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy has brought significant advancements to the field of oncology. However, the diverse responses among patients highlight the need for more accurate predictive tools. In this study, insights are drawn from tumor-immunology pathways, and a novel network-based ICB immunotherapeutic signature, termed ICBnetIS, is constructed. The signature is derived from advanced biological network-based computational strategies involving co-expression networks and molecular interactions networks. The efficacy of ICBnetIS is established through its association with enhanced patient survival and a robust immune response characterized by diverse immune cell infiltration and active anti-tumor immune pathways. The validation process positions ICBnetIS as an effective tool in predicting responses to ICB therapy,analyzing ICB data from a broad collection of over 700 samples from multiple cancer types of more than 15 datasets. It achieves an aggregated prediction AUC of 0.784, which outperforms the other nine renowned immunotherapeutic signatures, indicating the superior predictive capability of ICBnetIS. To sum up, the findings suggest ICBnetIS as a potent tool in predicting ICB therapy responses, offering significant implications for patient selection and treatment optimization in oncology. The study highlights the role of ICBnetIS in advancing personalized treatment strategies, potentially transforming the clinical landscape of ICB therapy.

Assessing the risk of concurrent mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in children with tracheobronchial tuberculosis: retrospective study.

This study aimed to create a predictive model based on machine learning to identify the risk for tracheobronchial tuberculosis (TBTB) occurring alongside Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in pediatric patients. Clinical data from 212 pediatric patients were examined in this retrospective analysis. This cohort included 42 individuals diagnosed with TBTB and Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (combined group) and 170 patients diagnosed with lobar pneumonia alone (pneumonia group). Three predictive models, namely XGBoost, decision tree, and logistic regression, were constructed, and their performances were assessed using the receiver's operating characteristic (ROC) curve, precision-recall curve (PR), and decision curve analysis (DCA). The dataset was divided into a 7:3 ratio to test the first and second groups, utilizing them to validate the XGBoost model and to construct the nomogram model. The XGBoost highlighted eight significant signatures, while the decision tree and logistic regression models identified six and five signatures, respectively. The ROC analysis revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.996 for XGBoost, significantly outperforming the other models (p < 0.05). Similarly, the PR curve demonstrated the superior predictive capability of XGBoost. DCA further confirmed that XGBoost offered the highest AIC (43.226), the highest average net benefit (0.764), and the best model fit. Validation efforts confirmed the robustness of the findings, with the validation groups 1 and 2 showing ROC and PR curves with AUC of 0.997, indicating a high net benefit. The nomogram model was shown to possess significant clinical value. Compared to machine learning approaches, the XGBoost model demonstrated superior predictive efficacy in identifying pediatric patients at risk of concurrent TBTB and Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia. The model's identification of critical signatures provides valuable insights into the pathogenesis of these conditions.

Evaluating the predictive value of initial lactate/albumin ratios in determining prognosis of sepsis patients.

Sepsis remains a significant clinical challenge owing to its complex pathophysiology and variable prognosis. The early identification of patients at a higher risk of poor outcomes can be crucial for improving treatment strategies. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of early serum lactate and albumin levels and the lactate/albumin (L/A) ratio for 28-day prognosis in patients with sepsis. Patients diagnosed with sepsis between January 2021 and December 2022 were evaluated using a retrospective cohort methodology. Inclusion followed the International Consensus on sepsis and septic shock (Sepsis-3) guidelines and patients were selected based on well-defined criteria. Variables such as lactate, albumin, and the L/A ratio were documented within the first 24 hours of admission. Statistical analyses were performed using various tools, including the nonparametric Mann-Whitney U test and receiver operating characteristic curves. A total of 301 patients were divided into the survival (n = 167) and death (n = 134) groups. Notable differences were detected in the incidence of pulmonary infection, shock, lactate, albumin, and the L/A ratio. The L/A ratio was identified as a key predictor with an area under the curve of 0.868, an optimal cutoff value of >0.17, a sensitivity of 56.21%, and a specificity of 94.18%. Significant disparities in mortality rates and survival times were observed for the lactate, albumin, and L/A levels. This study underscores the predictive value of early serum lactate and albumin levels and the L/A ratio for 28-day prognosis in patients with sepsis, with the L/A ratio showing a superior predictive capability. These findings highlight the importance of L/A ratio as a robust and precise marker for evaluating the future clinical course of patients with sepsis, potentially aiding early detection and management.