Sun-Earth Line Research Articles

The importance of boundary evolution for solar-wind modelling

The solar wind is a continual outflow of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s upper atmosphere—the corona—that expands to fills the solar system. Variability in the near-Earth solar-wind conditions can produce adverse space weather that impacts ground- and space-based technologies. Consequently, numerical fluid models of the solar wind are used to forecast conditions a few days ahead. The solar-wind inner-boundary conditions are supplied by models of the corona that are, in turn, constrained by observations of the photospheric magnetic field. While solar eruptions—coronal mass ejections (CMEs)—are treated as time-dependent structures, a single coronal “snapshot” is typically used to determine the ambient solar-wind for a complete model run. Thus, all available time-history information from previous coronal-model solutions is discarded and the solar wind is treated as a steady-state flow, unchanging in the rotating frame of the Sun. In this study, we use 1 year of daily-updated coronal-model solutions to comprehensively compare steady-state solar-wind modelling with a time-dependent method. We demonstrate, for the first time, how the SS approach can fundamentally misrepresent the accuracy of coronal models. We also attribute three key problems with current space-weather forecasting directly to the steady-state approach: (1) the seemingly paradoxical result that forecasts based on observations from 3-days previous are more accurate than forecasts based on the most recent observations; (2) high inconsistency, with forecasts for a given day jumping significantly as new observations become available, changing CME propagation times by up to 17 h; and (3) insufficient variability in the heliospheric magnetic field, which controls solar energetic particle propagation to Earth. The time-dependent approach is shown to alleviate all three issues. It provides a consistent, physical solution which more accurately represents the information present in the coronal models. By incorporating the time history in the solar wind along the Sun-Earth line, the time-dependent approach will provide improvements to forecasting CME propagation to Earth.

Comparison of terrestrial exospheric hydrogen 3D distributions at solar minimum and maximum using TWINS Lyman-α observations

Remote sensing observations of far-ultraviolet (FUV) emissions have been used to estimate 3D neutral hydrogen (H) density models of the terrestrial exosphere under solar minimum (2008) and solar maximum (2013 and 2015) conditions. Specifically, we used Lyman-alpha (Lyman-α, FUV at 121.6 nm) radiance data acquired by the Lyman-alpha detectors (LADs) onboard NASA’s TWINS satellites, collected over several days for each of the 3 years to provide sufficient coverage of the exospheric region. The datasets included Lyman-α measurements taken only above Earth radii (Re) of 3.75, assumed to be the optically thin region of the exosphere, where the measured Lyman-α intensity along a line of sight (LOS) is linearly proportional to the atomic hydrogen column density. Based on the calibration using multiple UV-bright stars, a significant decrease in TWINS1 LAD1/2 sensitivities was found for 2013 (LAD2 ∼1/2, LAD ∼1/3) and 2015 (LAD2 ∼1/3, LAD ∼1/7) compared to 2008. The calibration uncertainty was derived to be, on average, 5%. We estimated the 3D global hydrogen density distributions from these radiance data using two different tomographic inversion methods: first, a parametric fitting method based on a spherical harmonic function of order 3 and second, a high degree-of-freedom retrieval approach to validate our retrievals of H density. Both inversion methods consistently incorporate the effects of Lyman-α absorption within the exosphere and Lyman-α re-emission from Earth’s albedo. Our results reveal that H densities during solar maximum conditions are, on average, 30%–40% higher than those during solar minimum. All models showed a high concentration of atomic H on the dayside and nightside near the Sun–Earth line, which determines a nose/geotail structure consistent with theoretical effects from the solar radiation pressure. Furthermore, we identified that H-density enhancements during solar maximum with respect to solar minimum conditions occur at mid-to-high latitudes, particularly on the dusk side, while no significant enhancement seems to occur near the dayside nose.

Modelling non-radially propagating coronal mass ejections and forecasting the time of their arrival at Earth

We present the study of two solar eruptive events observed on December 7 2020 and October 28 2021. Both events were associated with full halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. These events were chosen because they show a strong non-radial direction of propagation in the low corona and their main propagation direction observed in the inner heliosphere is not fully aligned with the Sun-Earth line. This characteristic makes them suitable for our study, which aims to inspect how the non-radial direction of propagation in the low corona affects the time of CMEs’ arrival at Earth. We reconstructed the CMEs using SOHO/LASCO and STEREO/COR observations and modelled them with the 3D MHD model EUHFORIA and the cone model for CMEs. In order to compare the accuracy of forecasting the CME and the CME-driven shock arrival time at Earth obtained from different methods, we also used so-called type II bursts, radio signatures of associated shocks, to find the velocities of the CME-driven shocks and forecast the time of their arrival at Earth. Additionally, we estimated the CME arrival time using the 2D CME velocity obtained from the white light images. Our results show that the lowest accuracy of estimated CME Earth arrival times is found when the 2D CME velocity is used (time difference between observed and modelled arrival time, Δt ≈ −29 h and −39 h, for the two studied events, respectively). The velocity of the type II radio bursts provides somewhat better – but still not very accurate – results (Δt ≈ +21 h and −29 h, for the two studied events, respectively). Employing, as an input to EUHFORIA, the CME parameters obtained from the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) fittings at consequently increasing heights, results in a strongly improved accuracy of the modelled CME and shock arrival time; Δt changes from 20 h to 10 min in the case of the first event, and from 12 h to 30 min in the case of the second one. This improvement shows that when we increased the heights of the GCS reconstruction we accounted for the change in the propagation direction of the studied CMEs, which allowed us to accurately model the CME flank encounter at Earth. Our results show the great importance of the change in the direction of propagation of the CME in the low corona when modelling CMEs and estimating the time of their arrival at Earth.

Assessment of the near-Sun magnetic field of the 10 March 2022 coronal mass ejection observed by Solar Orbiter

Aims. We estimate the near-Sun axial magnetic field of a coronal mass ejection (CME) on 10 March 2022. Solar Orbiter’s in situ measurements, 7.8 degrees east of the Sun-Earth line at 0.43 AU, provided a unique vantage point, along with the WIND measurements at 0.99 AU. We determine a single power-law index from near-Sun to L1, including in situ measurements from both vantage points. Methods. We tracked the temporal evolution of the instantaneous relative magnetic helicity of the source active region (AR), NOAA AR 12962. By estimating the helicity budget of the pre-and post-eruption AR, we estimated the helicity transported to the CME. Assuming a Lundquist flux-rope model and geometrical parameters obtained through the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) CME forward modelling, we determined the CME axial magnetic field at a GCS-fitted height. Assuming a power-law variation of the axial magnetic field with heliocentric distance, we extrapolated the estimated near-Sun axial magnetic field to in situ measurements at 0.43 AU and 0.99 AU. Results. The net helicity difference between the post-and pre-eruption AR is ( − 7.1 ± 1.2)×1041 Mx2, which is assumed to be bodily transported to the CME. The estimated CME axial magnetic field at a near-Sun heliocentric distance of 0.03 AU is 2067 ± 405 nT. From 0.03 AU to L1, a single power-law falloff, including both vantage points at 0.43 AU and 0.99 AU, gives an index −1.23 ± 0.18. Conclusions. We observed a significant decrease in the pre-eruptive AR helicity budget. Extending previous studies on inner-heliospheric intervals from 0.3 AU to ∼1 AU, referring to estimates from 0.03 AU to measurements at ∼1 AU. Our findings indicate a less steep decline in the magnetic field strength with distance compared to previous studies, but they align with studies that include near-Sun in situ magnetic field measurements, such as from Parker Solar Probe.

A treatment of the all-clear problem for solar energetic particle events and subsequent decision making

We discuss the relatively overlooked problem of All Clear in Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event prediction. These proton and heavier ion events are injected in major solar eruptions, propagate directionally into the heliosphere at relativistic speeds and threaten equipment and personnel at low-Earth orbit and beyond. SEPs are rare to extreme events associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), with one SEP event detected in-situ every several hundreds of flares and CMEs observed remotely. This abysmal overall association improves drastically to below 1:2 for fast (i.e., shock-fronted) and halo (i.e., propagating mainly along the Sun–Earth line) CMEs. All Clear implies an assessment of tolerable conditions within a preset prediction window. Relying on one of the most comprehensive data sets for SEP events, we implement a methodology that provides an All Clear for events of NOAA severity S1 and above (S1+) and identify the minimal eruption attributes (flare size and CME speed) that could give rise to such SEP events from source locations in the Sun. The results correspond to and reflect settings of minimum complexity, giving rise to different attributes for different longitudinal zones in the earthward solar hemisphere. This work presents proof of concept; complexity can be increased at will for more demanding All Clear definitions, subject only to sufficient statistics due to the scarcity of the phenomenon. At this point, feedback is desired from stakeholders on what fits their definition of All Clear (we expect different definitions from different operators), so that to define the precise settings on which to run this and similar exercises.

A statistical study of the impact of the stream interaction regions on the heliospheric current sheet

The heliospheric current sheet (HCS) serves as the boundary that separates two sectors in which the interplanetary magnetic field lines diverge in opposite directions. In this study, we conducted a statistical analysis of 216 HCS events, utilizing data from the Wind spacecraft to examine the impact of stream interaction regions (SIRs) on the HCSs. Our findings revealed that out of all the HCS events, 153 (70.8%) were succeeded by a SIR within 36 h. Conversely, 63 HCS events (29.2%) were not followed by any SIR. The occurrence of HCSs accompanied by SIRs displayed a rough anti-correlation with solar sunspots. The statistical results further indicated that the presence of a SIR exerts some influence on the preceding HCS. Specifically, the thickness of the HCS is significantly reduced by the trailing SIR, and the subsequent SIR can cause the leading HCS to stand more vertically to the ecliptic plane and more aligned with the Sun–Earth line (a smaller angle between the normal of the HCS and the Earth's dawn–dusk line in the ecliptic plane).

Triangulation of Hard X-Ray Sources in an X-Class Solar Flare with ASO-S/HXI and Solar Orbiter/STIX

HXI on ASO-S and STIX onboard Solar Orbiter are the first simultaneously operating solar hard X-ray imaging spectrometers. ASO-S’s low Earth orbit and Solar Orbiter’s periodic displacement from the Sun–Earth line enables multi-viewpoint solar hard X-ray spectroscopic imaging analysis for the first time. Here, we demonstrate the potential of this new capability by reporting the first results of 3D triangulation of hard X-ray sources in the SOL2023-12-31T21:55 X5 flare. HXI and STIX observed the flare near the east limb with an observer separation angle of 18°. We triangulated the brightest regions within each source, which enabled us to characterise the large-scale hard X-ray geometry of the flare. The footpoints were found to be in the chromosphere within uncertainty, as expected, while the thermal looptop source was centred at an altitude of 15.1 ± 1 Mm. Given the footpoint separation, this implies a more elongated magnetic-loop structure than predicted by a semi-circular model. These results show the strong diagnostic power of joint HXI and STIX observations for understanding the 3D geometry of solar flares. We conclude by discussing the next steps required to fully exploit their potential.

First direct observations of interplanetary shock impact angle effects on actual geomagnetically induced currents: The case of the Finnish natural gas pipeline system

The impact of interplanetary (IP) shocks on the Earth’s magnetosphere can greatly disturb the geomagnetic field and electric currents in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. At high latitudes, the current systems most affected by the shocks are the auroral electrojet currents. These currents then generate ground geomagnetically induced currents that couple with and are highly detrimental to ground artificial conductors including power transmission lines, oil/gas pipelines, railways, and submarine cables. Recent research has shown that the shock impact angle, the angle the shock normal vector performs with the Sun-Earth line, plays a major role in controlling the subsequent geomagnetic activity. More specifically, due to more symmetric magnetospheric compressions, nearly frontal shocks are usually more geoeffective than highly inclined shocks. In this study, we utilize a subset (332 events) of a shock list with more than 600 events to investigate, for the first time, shock impact angle effects on the subsequent GICs right after shock impact (compression effects) and several minutes after shock impact (substorm-like effects). We use GIC recordings from the Finnish natural gas pipeline performed near the Mäntsälä compression station in southern Finland. We find that GIC peaks (> 5 A) occurring after shock impacts are mostly caused by nearly frontal shocks and occur in the post-noon/dusk magnetic local time sector. These GIC peaks are presumably triggered by partial ring current intensifications in the dusk sector. On the other hand, more intense GIC peaks (> 20 A) generally occur several minutes after shock impacts and are located around the magnetic midnight terminator. These GIC peaks are most likely caused by intense energetic particle injections from the magnetotail which frequently occur during substorms. The results of this work are relevant to studies aiming at predicting GICs following solar wind driving under different levels of asymmetric solar wind forcing.

Multipoint study of the rapid filament evolution during a confined C2 flare on 28 March 2022, leading to eruption

This study focuses on the rapid evolution of the solar filament in active region 12975 during a confined C2 flare on 28 March 2022, which finally led to an eruptive M4 flare 1.5 h later. The event is characterized by the apparent breakup of the filament, the disappearance of its southern half, and the flow of the remaining filament plasma into a new, longer channel with a topology very similar to an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) hot channel observed during the flare. In addition, we outline the emergence of the original filament from a sheared arcade and discuss possible drivers for its rise and eruption. We took advantage of Solar Orbiter's favorable position, 0.33 AU from the Sun, and $83. 5^ west of the Sun-Earth line, to perform a multi-point study using the Spectrometer Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) and the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI) in combination with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and Halpha images from the Earth-based Kanzelhöhe Observatory for Solar and Environmental Research (KSO) and the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG). While STIX and EUI observed the flare and the filament's rise from close up and at the limb, AIA and HMI observations provided highly complementary on-disk observations from which we derived differential emission measure (DEM) maps and nonlinear force-free (NLFF) magnetic field extrapolations. According to our pre-flare NLFF extrapolation, field lines corresponding to both filament channels existed in close proximity before the flare. We propose a loop-loop reconnection scenario based on field structures associated with the AIA 1600 Å flare ribbons and kernels. It involves field lines surrounding and passing beneath the shorter filament channel, and field lines closely following the southern part of the longer channel. Reconnection occurs in an essentially vertical current sheet at a polarity inversion line (PIL) below the breakup region, which enables the formation of the flare loop arcade and EUV hot channel. This scenario is supported by concentrated currents and free magnetic energy built up by antiparallel flows along the PIL before the flare, and by non-thermal X-ray emission observed from the reconnection region. The reconnection probably propagated to involve the original filament itself, leading to its breakup and new geometry. This reconnection geometry also provides a general mechanism for the formation of the long filament channel and realizes the concept of tether cutting. It was probably active throughout the filament's continuous rise phase, which lasted from at least 30 min before the C2 flare until the filament eruption. The C2 flare represents a period of fast reconnection during this otherwise more steady period, during which most of the original filament was reconnected and joined the longer channel. These results demonstrate how rapid changes in solar filament topology can be driven by loop-loop reconnection with nearby field structures, and how this can be part of a long-lasting tether-cutting reconnection process. They also illustrate how a confined precursor flare due to loop-loop reconnection (Type I) can contribute to the evolution towards a full eruption, and that they can produce a flare loop arcade when the contact region between interacting loop systems has a sheet-like geometry similar to a flare current sheet.

Azimuthal Size Scales of Solar Wind Periodic Density Structures

Periodic density structures (PDSs) are quasiperiodic variations of solar wind density ranging from a few minutes to a few hours. PDSs advect with the solar wind and have radial length scales (L x ) of tens to several thousand megameters, thus belonging to the class of “mesoscale structures.” Current interplanetary multispacecraft observations are not at spatial separations capable of directly measuring the 3D size scale of PDSs or other mesoscale structures. Instead, previous investigations estimated characteristic spatial scales in solar wind parameters using cross-correlation and/or coherence analysis applied to multispacecraft observations. For the solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) intensity, the reported size scales perpendicular to the Sun–Earth line (L y ) ranged between ≈30 and ≈200 Earth Radii (R E). Here, we implemented a similar approach for the same parameters, but focused on high-density, slow-solar-wind intervals with PDSs observed by the Wind and ARTEMIS-P1 spacecraft. Additionally, this is the first statistical study of the IMF intensity periodicities in relation to PDSs. We identified intervals in which the two spacecraft observed the same periodicity, obtaining two PDS groups based on their radial length scale: L x1 ≈ 86R E and L x2 ≈ 35R E. Then, we classified the events based on the periodic variations’ coherence level. Reproducing the results with simulations of the PDSs’ transit, we inferred the L y order of magnitudes for the two PDS groups: L y1 ≈ 340R E and L y2 ≈ 187R E. Knowing the PDSs’ size scales is fundamental for constraining models aimed at reproducing these structures and is critical for better understanding the PDS–magnetosphere coupling.

The Advective Flux Transport Model: Improving the Far Side with Active Regions Observed by STEREO 304 Å

Observations of the Sun’s photospheric magnetic field are often confined to the Sun–Earth line. Surface flux transport (SFT) models, such as the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model, simulate the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field to produce magnetic maps over the entire surface of the Sun. While these models are able to evolve active regions that transit the near side of the Sun, new far-side side flux emergence is typically neglected. We demonstrate a new method for creating improved maps of the magnetic field over the Sun’s entire photosphere using data obtained by the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) mission. STEREO He ii 304 Å intensity images are used to infer the time, location, and total unsigned magnetic flux of far-side active regions. We have developed an automatic detection algorithm for finding and ingesting new far-side active region emergence into the AFT model. We conduct a series of simulations to investigate the impact of including active region emergence in AFT, both with and without data assimilation of magnetograms. We find that while He ii 304 Å can be used to improve surface flux models, care must taken to mitigate intensity surges from flaring events. We estimate that during Solar Cycle 24's maximum (2011–2015), 4–6 × 1022 Mx of flux is missing from SFT models that do not include far-side data. We find that while He ii 304 Å data alone can be used to create synchronic maps of photospheric magnetic field that resemble the observations, it is insufficient to produce a complete picture without direct magnetic observations from magnetographs.

Comparison of magnetic data products from Solar Orbiter SO/PHI-FDT and SDO/HMI

Context.The Polarimetric and Helioseismic Imager (SO/PHI), on board the Solar Orbiter mission, is the first photospheric magnetograph and tachograph to observe the Sun from outside the Sun-Earth line. The Full Disc Telescope (FDT) of SO/PHI, images the whole solar disk with a spatial resolution that varies with the distance between the Sun and the spacecraft.Aims.We check for consistency between the magnetic field strength (B), the field inclination (γ), the line-of-sight (LoS) magnetic component (BLoS) and the field azimuth (ϕ), inferred by SO/PHI-FDT and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), on board Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and obtain linear correlation coefficients among them.Methods.We use data from both instruments obtained on 8 March 2022, when the angle between SDO and Solar Orbiter was 3.4° and the solar disk showed four developed active regions. Before comparing the magnetic field products of both instruments we perform a precise alignment of the data, including a matching of the plate scale. Further, in order to improve the homogeneity of the compared data products, the SDO/HMI data were convolved with the SO/PHI-FDT point spread function (PSF). The linear correlation coefficients are obtained through a linear regression of SDO/HMI to SO/PHI-FDT.Results.The two instruments yield comparable magnetic field data products. The slope coefficients for a linear fit are 1.37 forB, 1.11 forγ, 1.35 forBLoSand 1 for the azimuth. The corresponding fit offsets are −94 G, −9.8°, 5.2 G and 0.1°, respectively. The agreement between both instruments is significantly better when we take into account the different spatial resolution of both instruments. The fitting results vary slightly depending on the analyzed active region except for one of the four active regions, which shows larger differences and has been excluded from the comparison. The comparison of the LoS magnetic field products from SDO/HMI at 45 s and 720 s with SO/PHI-FDT shows a slope value of 1.17, with the offset less than 6 G, in both cases.

Photospheric Stereoscopy: Direct Estimation of Solar Surface-Height Variations

The orbit of the Solar Orbiter mission carries it and the Polarimetric and Helioseismic Imager (PHI), which is onboard, away from the Sun–Earth line, opening up the first ever possibility of doing stereoscopy of solar photospheric structures. We present a method for a stereoscopic analysis of the height variations in the solar photosphere. This method enables the estimation of relevant quantities, such as the Wilson depression of sunspots and pores. We demonstrate the feasibility of the method using simulated Stokes-I\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$I$\\end{document} continuum observations of an MHD simulation of the solar-surface layers. Our method estimates the large-scale variations in the solar surface by shifting and correlating two virtual images, mapped from the same surface feature observed from two different vantage points. The resulting vector is then introduced as an initial height estimate in the least-squares Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) optimization algorithm to reproduce smaller scale structures. The height estimates from the simulated images reproduce well the overall height variations of the MHD simulation. We studied which viewing angles give the best results and found the optimal separation of the view points to be between 10∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$10^{\\circ }$\\end{document} and 40∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$40^{\\circ }$\\end{document}; but neither viewing direction should be inclined by more than 30∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$30^{\\circ }$\\end{document} from the vertical to the solar surface. The method yields reliable results if the data have a signal-to-noise ratio of 50 or higher. The influence of the spatial resolution of the observed images is considered and discussed.

Relative Yield of Thermal and Nonthermal Emission during Weak Flares Observed by STIX during 2021 September 20–25

The disparate nature of the thermal–nonthermal energy partition during flares, particularly during weak flares, is still an open issue. Following the Neupert effect, quantifying the relative yield of X-ray emission in different energy bands can enable the inferring of the underlying energy release mechanism. During 2021 September 20–25, the Solar Orbiter mission—being closer to the Sun (∼0.6 au) and having a moderate separation angle (<40°) from the Sun–Earth line—offered a unique opportunity to analyze multiwavelength emission from ∼200 (mostly weak) flares, commonly observed by the Spectrometer Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX), STEREO-A, GOES, and the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Associating the quotient (q f ) of hard X-ray fluence (12–20 keV) and soft X-ray flux (4–10 keV) with the peak soft X-ray flux enabled us to identify strongly nonthermal flares. A multiwavelength investigation of spectral and imaging-mode observations of the 20 strongly nonthermal weak flares reveals an inverse relationship of q f with the emission measure (and density), and a positive relationship with the flare plasma temperature. This indicates that the plasma in tenuous loops attains higher temperatures compared to that in the denser loops, in response to nonthermal energy deposition. This is in agreement with the plasma parameters of the coronal loops, as derived by applying the one-dimensional Palermo–Harvard hydrodynamical code to coronal loop plasma with different initial coronal loop base pressures when subjected to similar heating inputs. Our investigation, therefore, indicates that the plasma parameters of the flaring loop in the initial phase have a decisive role in the thermal–nonthermal energy partitioning.

Coronal dimmings as indicators of the direction of early coronal mass ejection propagation

Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun that can cause severe disturbances in space weather. Earth-directed CMEs are responsible for the disruption of technological systems and damaging power grids. However, the early evolution of CMEs, especially Earth-directed ones, is poorly tracked using traditional coronagraphs along the Sun-Earth line. Aims. The most distinct phenomena associated with CMEs in the low corona are coronal dimmings, which are localized regions of reduced emission in the extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and soft X-rays formed due to mass loss and expansion during a CME. We present a new approach to estimating the early CME propagation direction based on the expansion of coronal dimmings. Methods. We developed the Dimming InfeRred Estimate of CME Direction (DIRECD) method. First, we performed simulations of CMEs in 3D using a geometric CME cone model and varying parameters such as width, height, source location, and deflection from the radial direction to study their influence on the CME projection onto the solar sphere. Second, we estimated the dominant direction of the dimming extent based on the evolution of the dimming area. Third, using the derived dominant direction of the dimming evolution on the solar sphere, we solved an inverse problem to reconstruct an ensemble of CME cones at different heights, widths, and deflections from the radial propagation. Finally, we searched for which CME parameter combinations the CME orthogonal projections onto the solar sphere would match the geometry of the dimming at the end of its impulsive phase best; we did so to derive the CME direction in 3D. We tested our approach on two case studies on 1 October, 2011 and 6 September, 2011. We also validated our results with 3D tie-pointing of the CME bubble in an EUV low corona and with 3D reconstructions by graduated cylindrical shell modeling (GCS) of white-light CMEs higher up in the corona. Results. Using DIRECD, we found that the CME on 1 October, 2011 expanded dominantly toward the south-east, while the CME on 6 September, 2011 was inclined toward the north-west. This is in agreement with the CME direction estimates from previous studies using multi-viewpoint coronagraphic observations. Conclusions. Our study demonstrates that coronal dimming information can be used to estimate the CME’s direction early in its evolution. This allows us to provide information on the CME direction before it is observed in the coronograph’s field of view, which is of practical importance for space weather forecasting and the mitigation of potential adverse impacts on Earth.

Tracking solar radio bursts using Bayesian multilateration

Solar radio bursts (SRBs), such as Type IIs and IIIs, are emitted by electrons propagating through the corona and interplanetary space. Tracking such bursts is key to understanding the properties of accelerated electrons and radio wave propagation as well as the local plasma environment that they propagate through. In this work, we present a novel multilateration algorithm called BayEsian LocaLisation Algorithm (BELLA) and validate the algorithm using simulated and observed SRBs. In addition, apparent SRB positions from BELLA are compared with comparable localisation methods and the predictions of solar wind models. BELLA uses Bayesian inference to create probabilistic distributions of source positions and their uncertainties. This facilitates the estimation of algorithmic, instrumental, and physical uncertainties in a quantitative manner. We validated BELLA using simulations and a Type III SRB observed by STEREO A and STEREO B at pm 116 degr from the Sun-Earth line and by Wind at L1. BELLA tracked the Type III source from sim 10--150 $R_ (2--0.15 MHz) along a spiral trajectory. This allowed for an estimate of an apparent solar wind speed of sw 400 km $ and a source longitude of $ 30degr . We compared these results with well-established methods of positioning: Goniopolarimetric (GP), analytical time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA), and Solar radio burst Electron Motion Tracker (SEMP). We found them to be in agreement with the results obtained by BELLA. Additionally, the results aligned with solar wind properties assimilated by the Heliospheric Upwind Extrapolation with time dependence (HUXt) model. We have validated BELLA and used it to identify apparent source positions as well as velocities and densities of the solar wind. Furthermore, we identified higher than expected electron densities, suggesting that the true emission sources were at lower altitudes than those identified by BELLA, an effect that may be due to appreciable scattering of electromagnetic waves by electrons in interplanetary space.

The Width of Magnetic Ejecta Measured near 1 au: Lessons from STEREO-A Measurements in 2021–2022

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions with a typical radial size at 1 au of 0.21 au but their angular width in interplanetary space is still mostly unknown, especially for the magnetic ejecta (ME) part of the CME. We take advantage of STEREO-A angular separation of 20°–60° from the Sun–Earth line from 2020 October to 2022 August, and perform a two-part study to constrain the angular width of MEs in the ecliptic plane: (a) we study all CMEs that are observed remotely to propagate between the Sun–STEREO-A and the Sun–Earth lines and determine how many impact one or both spacecraft in situ, and (b) we investigate all in situ measurements at STEREO-A or at L1 of CMEs during the same time period to quantify how many are measured by the two spacecraft. A key finding is that out of 21 CMEs propagating within 30° of either spacecraft only four impacted both spacecraft and none provided clean magnetic cloud-like signatures at both spacecraft. Combining the two approaches, we conclude that the typical angular width of an ME at 1 au is ∼20°–30°, or 2–3 times less than often assumed and consistent with a 2:1 elliptical cross section of an ellipsoidal ME. We discuss the consequences of this finding for future multi-spacecraft mission designs and for the coherence of CMEs.

Science Opportunities for IMAP-Lo Observations of Interstellar Neutral Helium, Neon, and Oxygen during a Maximum of Solar Activity

Direct-sampling observations of interstellar neutral (ISN) species and their secondary populations give information about the physical state of the local interstellar medium and processes occurring in the outer heliosheath. Such observations are performed from Earth’s orbit by the IBEX-Lo experiment on board the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission. IBEX ISN viewing is restricted to directions close to perpendicular to the Earth–Sun line, which limits the observations of interstellar species to several months during the year. A greatly improved data set will be possible for the upcoming Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) mission due to a novel concept of putting the IMAP ISN detector, IMAP-Lo, on a pivot platform that varies the angle of observation relative to the Sun–Earth line and the detector boresight. Here, we suggest a 2 yr scenario for varying the viewing angle in such a way that all the necessary atom components can be observed sufficiently well to achieve the science goals of the nominal IMAP mission. This scenario facilitates, among others, removal of the correlation of the inflow parameters of interstellar gas, unambiguous analysis of the primary and secondary populations of interstellar helium (He), neon (Ne), and oxygen (O), and determination of the ionization rates of He and Ne free of possible calibration bias. The scheme is operationally simple, provides good counting statistics, and synergizes observations of interstellar species and heliospheric energetic neutral atoms.

Reconstruction of total solar irradiance variability as simultaneously apparent from Solar Orbiter and Solar Dynamics Observatory

Solar irradiance variability has been monitored almost exclusively from the Earth’s perspective. We present a method to combine the unprecedented observations of the photospheric magnetic field and continuum intensity from outside the Sun-Earth line, which is being recorded by the Polarimetric and Helioseismic Imager on board the Solar Orbiter mission (SO/PHI), with solar observations recorded from the Earth’s perspective to examine the solar irradiance variability from both perspectives simultaneously. Taking SO/PHI magnetograms and continuum intensity images from the cruise phase of the Solar Orbiter mission and concurrent observations from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI) as input into the SATIRE-S model, we successfully reconstructed the total solar irradiance variability as apparent from both perspectives. In later stages of the SO mission, the orbital plane will tilt in such a way as to bring the spacecraft away from the ecliptic to heliographic latitudes of up to 33°. The current study sets the template for the reconstruction of solar irradiance variability as seen from outside the ecliptic from data that SO/PHI is expected to collect from such positions. Such a reconstruction will be beneficial to factoring inclination into how the brightness variations of the Sun compare to those of other cool stars, whose rotation axes are randomly inclined.

Full Velocities and Propagation Directions of Coronal Mass Ejections Inferred from Simultaneous Full-disk Imaging and Sun-as-a-star Spectroscopic Observations

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are violent ejections of magnetized plasma from the Sun that can trigger geomagnetic storms, endanger satellite operations, and destroy electrical infrastructures on the Earth. After systematically searching Sun-as-a-star spectra observed by the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) from 2010 May to 2022 May, we identified eight CMEs associated with flares and filament eruptions by analyzing the blue-wing asymmetry of the O iii 52.58 nm line profiles. Combined with images simultaneously taken by the 30.4 nm channel of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board SDO, the full velocity and propagation direction for each of the eight CMEs are derived. We find a strong correlation between geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst) and the angle between the CME propagation direction and the Sun–Earth line, suggesting that Sun-as-a-star spectroscopic observations at extreme-ultraviolet wavelengths can potentially help to improve the prediction accuracy of the geoeffectiveness of CMEs. Moreover, an analysis of synthesized long-exposure Sun-as-a-star spectra implies that it is possible to detect CMEs from other stars through blue-wing asymmetries or blueshifts of spectral lines.