Warm Summer Research Articles

Climatic conditions modulate the effect of spruce budworm outbreaks on black spruce growth

Current ecological models predict profound climate change-related effects on the natural disturbance regimes of forests. Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) (SBW) is the principal insect defoliator in eastern North America, and SBW outbreaks have a major impact on the structure and function of the Canadian boreal forest, as defoliation leads to decreased tree growth, increased mortality, and lower forest productivity. SBW outbreaks have become more severe over the last century with the changing climate; however, little is known about how climate fluctuations affect the growth of SBW host species during the outbreak period. Here we evaluate how climate and outbreak severity combined to affect black spruce (Picea mariana) growth during the SBW outbreak that occurred between 1968–1988 and 2006–2017. We compiled dendrochronological series (2271 trees), outbreak severity (estimated by observed aerial defoliation), and climate data for 164 sites in Québec, Canada. We used a linear mixed effect model to determine the impacts of climatic parameters, cumulative defoliation (of the previous five years), and their coupled effect on basal area growth. At maximum outbreak severity, basal area growth of black spruce was reduced by 14%–18% over five years. This outbreak growth response was affected by climate: warmer previous summer minimum temperatures and a higher previous summer climate moisture index further decreased growth by 11% and 4%, respectively. In contrast, a preceding year's warmer spring minimum temperatures (9%) and summer maximum temperatures (7%) attenuated the negative SBW effect. This study adds knowledge to our landscape-level understanding of combined insect–climate effects and helps predictions of future SBW-related damage to forest stands to bolster sustainable forest management. We also recommend that projections of boreal forest ecosystems include several classes of SBW defoliation and multiple climatic scenarios in future simulations.

Space Cooling Energy Potential of Domestic Cold Water before Household Consumption in Cold-Climate Regions

Space cooling energy consumption in residential buildings has tripled globally over the past three decades, leading to a significant increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and building operating costs. To reduce building cooling energy consumption, cooling energy can be recovered from domestic cold water (DCW) for space cooling by circulating DCW through thermally massive walls (herein “DCW-wall”) before regular household consumption (e.g., showers). This approach is more effective in cold climate regions since the DCW is cooler in these regions, yet its engineering design and effectiveness have not been evaluated previously. This study evaluated the cooling potential of DCW-walls in different operation scenarios (e.g., inlet temperatures, zone temperatures, and piping configurations). A typical DCW usage pattern and a daily amount of 1200 L were selected for evaluation. Three-dimensional transient thermal simulations were used to obtain the water outlet temperatures, average wall surface temperatures, and cooling potentials. The results showed that a DCW wall with a spiral piping configuration and DCW inlet at 12 °C can deliver 21.92 MJ of cooling energy daily to a zone at 25 °C. This amount of free energy can cover up to approximately 11% of the annual cooling energy demand of a four-person dwelling in Toronto, Canada, which has a warm and humid summer.

Extreme Heat Events over Southeast Europe Based on NEX-GDDP Ensemble: Present Climate Evaluation and Future Projections

Southeast Europe is considered one of the most vulnerable regions in the context of climate change, and projected future summer warming is expected to exceed global rates significantly. Despite the importance of this problem, there have been few studies that utilized Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and the multi-model ensemble approach to examine extreme heat events on a regional scale. Additionally, the NEX-GDDP dataset, successfully applied in other parts of the world to assess extreme heat, has not yet been utilized for Southeast Europe. This study aims to fill that gap, presenting the time evolution and spatial distribution of extreme heat events in Southeast Europe for the historical period 1950–2005 and for the expected future climate up to the end of the 21st century based on the NEX-GDDP dataset. In order to leverage the strengths of the multi-model ensemble approach, a set of purpose-tailored indicators, such as the annual number of hot days, the maximum number of consecutive hot days, and hot spell duration at different thresholds, is computed by the daily maximum temperature data from all datasets, produced by NEX-GDDP (21 for the historical period and 42 for the future period). The E-OBS dataset is used as a reference for evaluating the NEX-GDDP’s capability to simulate the features of the observed historical extreme heat events. The results show that the multi-model ensemble can satisfactorily capture the occurrence of extreme heat events in the historical period, and therefore it is reasonable to assume that the NEX-GDDP dataset has the potential to reproduce such extremes in the projected future. The study provides clear evidence that the persistence and spatial extent of extreme heat will increase significantly. Some indicators that were not relevant for the historical period due to the high-temperature threshold will become helpful in assessing extreme heat in Southeast Europe in the latter part of the century. Thus, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the area-averaged duration of hot spells at 32 °C and 34 °C will increase from near zero in 1976–2005 to 60 and 45 days, respectively, by the end of the century. The indicators used in the study may be helpful for decision-makers to implement climate change mitigation strategies and actions adequately. The findings are consistent with general tendencies in maximum temperatures considered in our previous works but also with the outcomes of recent studies dedicated to the future climate of the region.

The relationship between temperature, growth rate and body condition of Bufo bufo toadlets prior to their first hibernation

Abstract The effect of environmental temperature on the growth and body condition of common toad (Bufo bufo) toadlets was studied during their first terrestrial growth season, following metamorphosis, at a pond in south Dorset, UK, between 2010 and 2021. Toadlet samples were collected annually on the first day of emergence and then approximately once a week until late September/early October. In total, 15-19 samples were collected annually depending on the duration of the toadlet activity season. Toadlet snout-vent length (mm) and body mass (mg) of each captured toadlet was measured and their body condition (Scaled Mass Index: SMI) estimated both annually and for each annual quarter season. Toadlet growth rate and SMI varied between years and were significantly correlated with the duration of their first growth season and its lowest recorded temperature. Growth rate declined as the duration of the growth season increased whilst the reverse was true for SMI. Growth rates also increased as temperatures increased and vice versa for SMI. SMI was inversely correlated to growth rate and suggest that toadlets may enter their first hibernation larger, but in poorer condition, following warm summers than cool summers, and that this may have the potential to reduce their survivorship during a following mild winter. Assuming that similar relationships, between growth rates, body condition and environmental temperatures are not restricted to toadlets during their first terrestrial growth season, then this scenario may also be applicable to subsequent juvenile stages, further increasing the potential consequences for individual survival and fitness.

Mediterranean basin vegetation forecasting approaches: accuracy analysis & climate-land cover-sensor nexus impacts

ABSTRACT From land degradation and desertification to cyclones and tropical storms, and so on, the repercussions of global change have become increasingly severe in recent years. Such environmental impacts require continuous assessment and monitoring. Thus, to study and analyse these impacts, a variety of time-series forecasting approaches have been developed, including statistical ones [i.e. Moving Average (MA), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), etc.], and machine-learning approaches such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long-Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). In this study, accuracy of the most used forecasting approaches (i.e. MA, LSTM and Conv-LSTM) has been quantified, and three impacts (i.e. climate regions, land cover and satellite sensors) have been brought to light. Firstly, eight Mediterranean regions were selected (i.e. two hot arid regions, two cold arid regions, two regions with temperate hot summers and two regions with temperate warm summers) based on Köppen climate classification. Secondly, 654 hyperspectral images retrieved from three different satellites (i.e. Sentinel-2, Landsat-8 and MODIS) from 2016 to 2022 were computed in order to predict 29 vegetation biophysical indices (i.e. NDVI, GNDVI, EVI, CVI, etc.). Accordingly, more than 18,000 images were computed, resulting in 696 time series forecasted using the aforementioned approaches. Finally, 2088 forecasted time series have been determined, and their accuracy has been compared. As a result, Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 images had the highest forecasting accuracy in the three approaches, reaching 86% of the computed indices being over 50% accurately predicted in LSTM model, while MODIS data had the highest forecasting accuracy only in MA model, with a percentage of 72% of the computed indices being over 50% accurately predicted. Furthermore, we have identified that region climate impacts vegetation forecasting accuracy. For instance, arid regions showed low accuracies across all models, while temperate regions showed higher accuracies in the Mediterranean region.

Detection of African Swine Fever Virus and Blood Meals of Porcine Origin in Hematophagous Insects Collected Adjacent to a High-Biosecurity Pig Farm in Lithuania; A Smoking Gun?

A seasonal trend of African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in domestic pig farms has been observed in affected regions of Eastern Europe. Most outbreaks have been observed during the warmer summer months, coinciding with the seasonal activity pattern of blood-feeding insects. These insects may offer a route for introduction of the ASF virus (ASFV) into domestic pig herds. In this study, insects (hematophagous flies) collected outside the buildings of a domestic pig farm, without ASFV-infected pigs, were analyzed for the presence of the virus. Using qPCR, ASFV DNA was detected in six insect pools; in four of these pools, DNA from suid blood was also identified. This detection coincided with ASFV being reported in the wild boar population within a 10 km radius of the pig farm. These findings show that blood from ASFV-infected suids was present within hematophagous flies on the premises of a pig farm without infected animals and support the hypothesis that blood-feeding insects can potentially transport the virus from wild boars into domestic pig farms.

The vulnerability and resilience of seagrass ecosystems to marine heatwaves in New Zealand: a remote sensing analysis of seascape metrics using PlanetScope imagery

AbstractSeagrasses are foundation species that provide ecosystem functions and services, including increased biodiversity, sediment retention, carbon sequestration, and fish nursery habitat. However, anthropogenic stressors that reduce water quality, impose large‐scale climate changes, and amplify weather patterns, such as marine heatwaves, are altering seagrass meadow configurations. Quantifying large‐scale trends in seagrass distributions will help evaluate the impacts of climate drivers on their functions and services. Here, we quantified spatiotemporal dynamics in abundances and configurations of intertidal and shallow subtidal seagrass (Zostera muelleri) meadows in 20 New Zealand (NZ) estuaries that span a 5‐year period (mid/late 2016–early 2022) just before, during and after the Tasman Sea 2017/18 marine heatwave, the warmest summer ever recorded in NZ. We used high‐resolution PlanetScope satellite imagery to map interseasonal seagrass extent and quantify seascape metrics across 20 estuaries along a latitudinal gradient spanning 12° in NZ. We also explored the association of changes in seagrass metrics with satellite‐derived predictors such as sea surface temperature (SST), SST anomaly (SSTa), water column turbidity, and nutrient concentration. Our analyses revealed that NZ seagrass meadows varied in areal extent between years and seasons, but with no clear patterns over the 5‐year period, implying resilience to large‐scale stressors like the 2017/18 marine heatwave. Small‐scale patterns were also dynamic, for example, patch sizes and patch configurations differed across estuaries, seasons, and years. Furthermore, seagrass patches expanded in some estuaries with increasing SST and SSTa. These results highlight dynamic seagrass patterns that likely affect local processes such as biodiversity and carbon sequestration. Our analyses demonstrate that a combination of high‐resolution satellite remote sensing and seascape metrics is an efficient and novel approach to detect impacts from anthropogenic stressors, like eutrophication and climate changes, and climate extremes like cyclones and heatwaves.

Evaluation and mitigation of outdoor live music

Live music is hosted at many small restaurants and breweries as a means for attracting customers and helping to expose patrons to local bands. Outdoor live music, especially during warm spring and summer seasons provides flexibility for venues in terms of seating capacity, patron comfort, and the integration of natural scenery. However, sound from outdoor entertainment can be a vexing problem for the surrounding community, especially for late evening and nighttime performances. In response to community concerns, outdoor live music venues located in three different communities (rural, small town urban, and waterfront) were each required to provide in-situ demonstrations to assess the effect of outdoor music on nearby homes. The effectiveness of these demonstrations, along with an analysis of mitigation measures, is discussed.

Wetland nitrogen removal from agricultural runoff in a changing climate

Wetlands in agricultural areas mitigate eutrophication by intercepting nutrient transports from land to sea. The role of wetlands for nutrient removal may become even more important in the future because of the expected increase in agricultural runoff due to climate change. Because denitrification is temperature dependent, wetland nitrogen (N) removal usually peaks during the warm summer. However, climate change scenarios for the northern temperate zone predict decreased summer and increased winter flows. Future wetlands may therefore shift towards lower hydraulic loading rate and N load during summer. We hypothesised that low summer N loads would decrease annual wetland N removal and tested this by examining 1.5–3 years of continuous N removal data from created agricultural wetlands in two regions in southern Sweden (East and West) during different periods. West wetlands showed relatively stable hydraulic loads throughout the year, whereas East wetlands had pronounced no-flow periods during summer. We compared East and West wetlands and tested the effects of several variables (e.g., N concentration, N load, hydraulic load, depth, vegetation cover, hydraulic shape) on annual absolute and relative N removal. We found no difference in annual N removal between East and West wetlands, even though summer N loads were lower in East than in West wetlands. A possible explanation is that stagnant water conditions in East wetlands suppressed decomposition of organic matter during summer, making more organic matter available for denitrification during winter. Absolute N removal in all wetlands was best explained by N load and hydraulic shape, whereas relative N removal was best explained by emergent vegetation cover and hydraulic shape. This study highlights the importance of design and location of agricultural wetlands for high N removal, and we conclude that wetlands in a future climate may remove N from agricultural runoff as efficiently as today.

Rapid shifts in pond sediment microbiota in response to high ambient temperature in a water-sediment microcosm.

Unlike the extensive research on the response of soil microorganisms to high ambient temperature (HTA), the response of sediment microorganisms to HTA remains unclear. Understanding the response of sediment microorganisms to HTA is important to forecast their impacts on ecosystems and climate warming under projected climate change scenarios. Against the background of climate warming and frequent high ambient temperatures in summer, we conducted a laboratory incubation experiment to clarify the unique assembly characteristics of pond sediment bacterial communities at different temperatures (4, 10, 15, 25, 30 and 35°C). The results showed that the structure and function of the microbial community in pond sediments at 35°C were different from those under other temperatures; the microbial community structure at 35°C had the most large modules and an average module size. Temperature and dissolved oxygen influenced the microbial community network modularity. The CO2 emission rates of pond sediments at 35°C were significantly higher than those at other temperatures. At 35°C, heterogeneous selection was the most important assembly process. Additionally, warming altered the microbial network structure and ecosystem functioning but not the microbial diversity or community composition, which may be related to horizontal gene transfer. Revealing the rapid response of pond sediment microorganisms to HTA is important for identifying their role in nutrient cycling and assessing the ecological impacts of climate warming and high ambient temperatures on inland water sediments.

Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Slab Expansion and Thickening

AbstractWe use airborne accumulation radar data acquired over the Greenland Ice Sheet between 2002 and 2018 to identify changes in ice slab extent and thickness. We show that ice slabs several meters thick were already present at least as early as 2002. Between 2012 and 2018, they expanded by 13,400–17,600 inland, or 37%–44%. Our results document that the extremely warm summer of 2012 produced near‐surface ice layers at higher elevations, enabling ice slabs to develop with only moderate melting in the following summers. With repeat flights along a transect in southwest Greenland, we show that moderate melting primarily causes slab thickening through uniform accretion on top of the ice slabs, while large melting events can also trigger localized accretion below existing ice slabs.

Herbivory and warming have opposing short‐term effects on plant‐community nutrient levels across high‐Arctic tundra habitats

Abstract Environmental changes can rapidly alter standing biomass in tundra plant communities; yet, to what extent can they modify plant‐community nutrient levels? Nutrient levels and their changes can affect biomass production, nutrient cycling rates and nutrient availability to herbivores. We examined how environmental perturbations alter Arctic plant‐community leaf nutrient concentrations (percentage of dry mass, i.e. resource quality) and nutrient pools (absolute mass per unit area, i.e. resource quantity). We experimentally imposed two different types of environmental perturbations in a high‐Arctic ecosystem in Svalbard, spanning three habitats differing in soil moisture and plant‐community composition. We mimicked both a pulse perturbation (a grubbing event by geese in spring) and a press perturbation (a constant level of summer warming). After 2 years of perturbations, we quantified peak‐season nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in 1268 leaf samples from the most abundant vascular plant species. We derived community‐weighted nutrient concentrations and total amount of nutrients (pools) for whole plant communities and individual plant functional types (PFTs). Spring grubbing increased plant‐community nutrient concentrations in mesic (+13%) and wet (+8%), but not moist, habitats, and reduced nutrient pools in all habitats (moist: −49%; wet, mesic: −31% to −37%). Conversely, summer warming reduced plant‐community nutrient concentrations in mesic and moist (−10% to −12%), but not wet, habitats and increased nutrient pools in moist habitats (+50%). Fast‐growing PFTs exhibited nutrient‐concentration responses, while slow‐growing PFTs generally did not. Grubbing enhanced nutrient concentrations of forbs and grasses in wet habitats (+20%) and of horsetails and grasses in mesic habitats (+19–23%). Conversely, warming decreased nutrient concentrations of horsetails in wet habitats (−15%) and of grasses, horsetails and forbs in moist habitats (−12% to −15%). Nutrient pools held by each PFT were less affected, although the most abundant PFTs responded to perturbations. Synthesis. Arctic plant‐community nutrient levels can be rapidly altered by environmental changes, with consequences for short‐term process rates and plant‐herbivore interactions. Community‐level responses in nutrient concentrations and pools were opposing and differed among habitats and PFTs. Our findings have implications for how we understand herbivory‐ and warming‐induced shifts in the fine‐scaled distribution of resource quality and quantity within and across tundra habitats.

Mediterranean service trees respond less to drought than oaks

Some widely distributed timber species, such as oaks, are vulnerable to low soil water availability and drought. Therefore, selecting broadleaved minor species with lower sensitivity to drought could be an alternative in seasonally dry areas. However, the growth performance of these minor hardwood species is unknown, particularly under warm and dry conditions at the southern limit of their distribution range. We assessed the radial growth response to drought by correlating tree-ring and climate data in coexisting service trees (Sorbus domestica) and two oak species (Quercus faginea, Quercus pyrenaica). Trees were sampled in three Mediterranean sites located in Spain with different precipitation patterns. We used the Vaganov–Shashkin (VS) growth model to infer the main climate constraints of growth. To ascertain whether climate is changing tree phenology, we also simulated changes in xylem onset and cessation timings and compared them with leaf falling dates in service trees. Service trees showed a trend towards advancing leaf fall, but this was not related to xylem growth. Oaks responded more to a drought index than service trees. The strongest responses corresponded to droughts peaking from spring to summer, but oaks tended to respond to longer droughts (9–13 months) than service trees (2–7 months). These different responses are due to the positive responses of all species to high precipitation in the growing season, but the sensitivity of oak growth to warm summer conditions and increased atmospheric water demand. The VS model indicated a more bimodal growth pattern in services trees than in oaks, which could allow the former to recover better after a dry summer. Service trees could be more widely used as a source of valuable timber wood under Mediterranean continental conditions.

The Eurasian shrew and vole tick Ixodes trianguliceps: geographical distribution, climate preference, and pathogens detected

The Eurasian shrew and vole tick Ixodes trianguliceps Birula lives in the nests and burrows of its small mammalian hosts and is—along with larvae and nymphs of Ixodes ricinus or Ixodes persulcatus—one of the most commonly collected tick species from these hosts in its Eurasian range. Ixodes trianguliceps is a proven vector of Babesia microti. In this study, up-to-date maps depicting the geographical distribution and the climate preference of I. trianguliceps are presented. A dataset was compiled, resulting in 1161 georeferenced locations in Eurasia. This data set covers the entire range of I. trianguliceps for the first time. The distribution area between 8^circ W–105^circ E and 40–69^circ N extends from Northern Spain to Western Siberia. To investigate the climate adaptation of I. trianguliceps, the georeferenced locations were superimposed on a high-resolution map of the Köppen–Geiger climate classification. The Köppen profile for I. trianguliceps, i.e., a frequency distribution of the tick occurrence under different climates, shows two peaks related to the following climates: warm temperate with precipitation all year round (Cfb), and boreal with warm or cold summers and precipitation all year round (Dfb, Dfc). Almost 97% of all known I. trianguliceps locations are related to these climates. Thus, I. trianguliceps prefers climates with warm or cold summers without dry periods. Cold winters do not limit the distribution of this nidicolous tick species, which has been recorded in the European Alps and the Caucasus Mountains up to altitudes of 2400 m. Conversely, I. trianguliceps does not occur in the Mediterranean area with its hot and dry summers.

The Climate of Zonal Plain Landscapes of Russia during the Modern Global Warming in Summer

The Climate of Zonal Plain Landscapes of Russia during the Modern Global Warming in Summer

Influence of ambient temperature on the phenology of the greater mouse-eared bat (Myotis myotis).

In order to assess the consequences of climate change and evaluate its impacts on wildlife, it is essential to do so on a species-specific level. It is assumed that changes in the ambient temperature influence energy consumption as well as food availability and thus foraging behavior, reproduction, survival, and therefore population dynamics in bats. Based on this assumption, the present study aims to gain insights into the roosting and breeding behavior of the greater mouse-eared bat (Myotis myotis) in relation to changes of the ambient temperature. For this purpose, we investigated the effect of ambient temperature on the phenology of the greater mouse-eared bat by using activity data of the bats collected using light barriers at the maternity roosts. The light barrier used in this study is a system that detects the interruption of two light beams, for example, by a flying bat, and displays it as an electrical signal. The investigations have shown that the higher the winter temperatures, the earlier the greater mouse-eared bats returned to the roosts to form the maternity colony; however, this was only true for ambient temperatures below 0.5°C,birth season started earlier at higher spring temperatures,the dissolution of maternity roosts occurred earlier with earlier birth season and at higher ambient temperatures during lactation. The results revealed that ambient temperature has an influence on the phenology of the greater mouse-eared bat. Depending on the respective life history stage, an increase in ambient temperature can have a positive or negative effect on the fitness of the animals. In recent years, mild winters have been recorded more frequently, which can have an influence on the behavior of bats. Warm winters within certain limits seem to lead to an earlier formation of the maternity colony, which can be positive or negative for the bats depending on persistent weather conditions and thus insect availability. In the course of climate change, we can also expect earlier spring events and an increase in spring temperature, as well as hot spells in summer. These warm springs and summers seem to lead to an earlier beginning of births, a faster development of the juveniles and an earlier dissolution of the maternity roost. An advance of reproductive activities can be assumed to increase the chance to survive the following winter in both mothers and their young, as they have more time to build up sufficient energy reserves for hibernation before winter starts. Due to the climatic changes, phenological changes of the bats be expected. This study highlights that in order to understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity, it is necessary to investigate in detail effects on a species-specific level and also to consider direct and indirect effects of ambient temperature on different life history stages.

The impact of climate change on agriculture: A repeat-Ricardian analysis

Ricardian analyses of farmland values have become a cornerstone of the literature valuing the impacts of climate change on agriculture. However, concerns about the lack of a formal econometric strategy to deal with omitted farmland characteristics have raised doubts about the identification of such impacts. This paper proposes an original method for estimating Ricardian models with plot fixed effects to control for confounding omitted variables. Specifically, we use plot-level repeat-sales French data from 1996 to 2019 to investigate how differences in farmland prices between two sale dates are explained by differences in climate evolutions. We show that our repeat-Ricardian estimates suggest greater benefits of climate change than those found with standard Ricardian analyses. In particular, our repeat-Ricardian estimates indicate that warmer summers benefit French agriculture, in complete opposition to our pooled Ricardian estimates or to the remainder of the literature. Our repeat-Ricardian results are robust to several specifications, climate length-definitions and sub-samples. We provide elements suggesting that the repeat-Ricardian analysis is better able to capture crop-switching towards high-value crops requiring particular soil conditions (e.g. vineyards). Our repeat-Ricardian analysis also indicates greater benefits of climate change compared to those estimated with short-term weather-based approaches, shedding new lights on previous inconsistent findings from the literature.

Satellite-Based Monitoring of Eutrophication in the Earth's Largest Transboundary Lake.

The world's large lakes and their life-supporting services are rapidly threatened by eutrophication in the warming climate during the Anthropocene. Here, MODIS-Aqua level 3 chlorophyll-a data (2018-2021) were used to monitor trophic state in our planet's largest lake, that is, the Caspian Sea that accounts for approximately 40% of the total lacustrine waters on Earth. We also used the in situ measurements of chlorophyll-a data (2009-2019) to further verify the accuracy of the data derived from the MODIS-Aqua and to explore the deep chlorophyll-a maxima (DCMs) in the south Caspian Sea. Our findings show an acceptable agreement between the chlorophyll-a data derived from the MODIS-Aqua and those measured in situ in the coast of Iran (coefficient of determination=0.71). The oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and eutrophic states cover 66%, 20%, and 13% of the sea surface area, respectively. The DCMs are dominantly regulated by water transparency and they generally observe at depths of less than 20 and 30m during the cold (autumn and winter) and warm (spring and summer) seasons, respectively. Our results suggest an ever-increasing chlorophyll-a in the shallow zones (i.e., coasts) and even in deep regions of the sea, mainly due to nutrient inputs from the Volga river delta. Alarming increase of chlorophyll-a in this transboundary lake can amplify eutrophication under the lens of global warming and further threaten the lake ecosystem's health, where almost all legal agreements have not yet been implemented to protect the lake environment and its rich resources.

Long‐term monitoring of pikeperch (Sander lucioperca) populations under increasing temperatures and predator abundances in the Finnish coastal waters of the Baltic Sea

AbstractThe Baltic Sea has been under intense environmental changes in the recent decades, such as climate change, eutrophication and increasing abundance of top‐predators, which pose serious challenges to its aquatic life. For informed conservation measures and sustainable yields, we need to understand how the populations are being affected. Accordingly, we used long‐term data series (covering the period between 1980 and 2021) to assess how these changes have affected populations of an ecologically and economically important predatory fish, the pikeperch (Sander lucioperca), in the coastal waters of Finland in the northern Baltic Sea. We investigated the estimates of abundance and recruitment, commercial and recreational catch statistics and growth and mortality rates. We found a clear increase in the total catches in the northernmost part of the Finnish coast (Bothnian Bay) that were not explained by changes in fishing effort, indicating increased abundance, most likely due to higher water temperature. In the southern part of the study area (Archipelago Sea), density‐dependent factors prevented the development of particularly strong year classes, despite the beneficial conditions of warming seawater and consecutive warm summers. Individual growth has increased in younger age groups, contributing to an upward trend in the spawning population biomass. We also uncovered a declining trend in the total mortality in the southern area, despite increased abundances of cormorants and seals, explained by reduced total fishing mortality. These results show that the pikeperch is one of the species that has, thus far, benefited from the environmental change in the northern Baltic Sea, strengthening its role in the ecosystem.

Potential changes in climate indices in Alberta under projected global warming of 1.5–5 °C

Study regionAlberta province, Canada Study focusThe global average surface temperature has continuously warmed at an unprecedentedly rapid rate since the mid-20th century. Employing CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate projections, this study suggested a comprehensive framework with state-of-the-art techniques and evaluated potential changes in climate indices under the GMT changes of + 1.5 °C, + 2 °C, + 3 °C, + 4 °C, and + 5 °C in Alberta, Canada. New hydrological insights for the regionMain finding of this study is that a significant warming trend in annual mean temperature was projected from all of the selected CMIP6 climate projections in Alberta while there was no distinct trend in annual precipitation. Under the GMT changes from + 1.5 °C to + 5 °C, extreme cold temperature indices were warming at a larger rate in response to the GMT warming. In particular, the warming rate of the annual coldest minimum temperature in Alberta was 2.5 times faster than GMT warming. In addition, a potential decrease in summer precipitation was projected under the GMT warming, leading to a drier and warmer summer in the central and southern parts of Alberta. Furthermore, more extreme drought conditions were projected in Alberta under the GMT warming, indicating that the extreme drought conditions are likely to become more common in Alberta along with the GMT warming.