Summer Temperature Reconstruction Research Articles

Quantification of Holocene temperatures in the eastern Hunshandake Sandy Land using δ13C of loess organic matter

The soil organic carbon isotope indicator (δ13Corg) is widely used in paleoecology and paleoclimate reconstruction due to its ability to record the history of paleovegetation change. Although it has been used as a proxy for precipitation reconstruction, increasing evidence suggests that temperature has played a crucial role in influencing the relative abundance of C3/C4 plants in the mid-latitudes during the interglacial period. This opens up the possibility of reconstructing Holocene temperature using δ13Corg. In this study, the variation of δ13Corg values in a Holocene loess profile (GLH profile), located in the eastern Hunshandake Sandy Land, China, was investigated. And we analyzed the correlation between δ13Corg values and modern temperatures for a total of 792 surface soil samples from mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, which had thermal conditions comparable to the GLH profile. Strong positive correlations were found between δ13Corg values of surface soil samples and both summer temperatures (r = 0.672, p < 0.001) and growing season temperatures (r = 0.669, p < 0.001). Additionally, δ13Corg values showed significant positive correlations with accumulated temperatures above 10 °C (r = 0.641, p < 0.001) and above 0 °C (r = 0.527, p < 0.001). However, the correlation with mean annual temperature was weak (r = 0.280, p < 0.001). The δ13Corg variation in the GLH profile recorded a mixed C3/C4 vegetation composition, with C4 plants comprising between 23.40% and 1.70% of the total abundance during the Holocene. The combined evidence from modern processes and profile variations confirms that warm-season temperature was the main factor driving variations in the δ13Corg values in the GLH profile. Therefore, we used δ13Corg–temperature conversion equations to quantify Holocene seasonal and accumulated temperatures based on the GLH profile. The reconstructed summer temperatures peaked at 9.3 ka, followed by a fluctuating downward trend during the mid- and late-Holocene, which is consistent with variations in summer solar insolation. Mean summer temperatures were relatively high at 23.3 °C and 22.5 °C in the early and mid-Holocene, respectively, while the lowest mean summer temperature of 20.5 °C occurred in the late Holocene. Accumulated temperatures above 10 °C and above 0 °C in the early Holocene were 3722 °C·d and 4641 °C·d, respectively, similar to modern observations in the Beijing area, indicating a southward shift of the temperature zone by nearly three degrees of latitude since the early Holocene. These reconstruction results are supported by modern observations, TraCE21 simulations, and other studies. This study is significant for extending the application of the δ13Corg indicator for quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions. It verifies its effectiveness in quantifying Holocene temperatures in the marginal zone of the East Asian summer monsoon.

Tree-ring based summer temperature variability since 1790 CE in the Hindu Kush region of northern Pakistan.

The Hindu Kush high-altitude regions of Pakistan are currently experiencing severe consequences as a result of global warming. In this sense, increasing soil erosion and the quick melting of glaciers are two particularly evident effects. In such a scenario, understanding long-term temperature changes is crucial for making accurate forecasts about how the Hindu Kush region may experience regional temperature changes in the future. In this study, the climate tree-ring width (TRW) analysis designated a positive and significant correlation (r = 0.622, p < 0.001) between the TRW chronology and the June to September (summer) mean maximum temperature (MMT). Using the tree-ring width of Pinus wallichiana A. B. Jackson, we reconstructed summer temperatures in the Hindu Kush region from 1790 CE. Statistical analysis showed that the reconstruction model has explained 38.7% of the climate variance during the instrumental period of 1967 to 2018 CE. Five extremely warm summer periods (≥ 4 years; before the instrumental period 1967-2018 CE) of 1804-1830, 1839-1862, 1876-1879, 1905-1910, 1923-1935 CE, and six cold summer periods of 1790-1803, 1832-1838, 1863-1875, 1880-1904, 1911-1922, and 1936-1945 CE have been observed during the past 229 years. Individually, the year 1856 CE experienced severe warmth (31.85°C), whereas 1794 CE was relatively cooler (29.60°C). The spectral multi-taper method (MTM) shows significant (p < 0.05) cycles, which take place about every 9.3, 5.7, 4.2, and 3.6 years. In particular, the 9.3-year cycle, which closely aligns with the 11-year solar activity cycle, suggests a potential correlation between solar activity and local temperature fluctuations. Moreover, our reconstruction demonstrates a significant degree of consistency when compared to actual climate data and regional temperature reconstruction series, reporting a strong logic of trust in the reliability and accuracy of our findings. This evidence reaffirms that our reconstruction shows significant and dependable regional temperature signals, notably being representative for the Hindu Kush region.

Summer warming during Heinrich Stadial 1 in Northeast China

The last deglaciation is considered a key period for exploring the underlying dynamics of temperature changes because it was characterized by multiple millennial-scale abrupt climatic events. However, the limited number of quantitative temperature records in Northeast (NE) China covering the last deglaciation hampers a complete understanding of the mechanisms and processes behind the temperature changes that occurred in that region. Here, we present a quantitative reconstruction of summer temperature over the last deglaciation based on bacterial branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) analyzed from the sediment sequence of Lake Kielguo, a small volcanic lake in NE China. The results show that summer temperature was lowest during the interval ca. 20−18.2 calibrated (cal.) k.y. B.P. with a value of ∼11.1 °C and increased by ∼1.9 °C during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) and by ∼2.7 °C during the transition to the Bølling-Allerød (B-A). The summer temperatures during the B-A warm interval and Younger Dryas cold interval were ∼14.1 °C and ∼12.0 °C, respectively. The summer temperature record from the Lake Kielguo sediment sequence indicates that summer warming dominated the climate change state during HS1 in East Asia, which is different from the cooling pattern controlled by winter temperatures in the North Atlantic and Greenland realms. This distinction can be explained by weakened winter cooling signals triggered by the collapse of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation when these signals propagated to East Asia, and increased summer temperature warming controlled by orbital and greenhouse gases during HS1 in East Asia.

A low-frequency summer temperature reconstruction for the United States Southwest, 3000 BC–AD 2000

Temperature variability likely played an important role in determining the spread and productive potential of North America’s key prehispanic agricultural staple, maize. The United States Southwest (SWUS) also served as the gateway for maize to reach portions of North America to the north and east. Existing temperature reconstructions for the SWUS are typically low in spatial or temporal resolution, shallow in time depth, or subject to unknown degrees of insensitivity to low-frequency variability, hindering accurate determination of temperature’s role in agricultural productivity and variability in distribution and success of prehispanic farmers. Here, we develop a model-based modern analog technique (MAT) approach applied to 29 SWUS fossil pollen sites to reconstruct July temperatures from 3000 BC to AD 2000. Temperatures were generally warmer than or similar to those of the modern (1961–1990) period until the first century AD. Our reconstruction also notes rapid warming beginning in the AD 1800s; modern conditions are unprecedented in at least the last five millennia in the SWUS. Temperature minima were reached around 1800 BC, 1000 BC, AD 400 (the global minimum in this series), the mid-to-late AD 900s, and the AD 1500s. Summer temperatures were generally depressed relative to northern hemisphere norms by a dominance of El Niño-like conditions during much of the second millenium BC and the first millenium AD, but somewhat elevated relative to those same norms in other periods, including from about AD 1300 to the present, due to the dominance of La Niña-like conditions.

Reconstruction of temperature and monsoon precipitation in southwestern China since the last deglaciation

Monsoon precipitation and temperature are the crucial components of the Indian monsoon climate, yet their spatial-temporal relationship remains unclear. In this study, we reconstruct the changes in monsoon precipitation and mean annual temperature simultaneously over the past 16,000 years using multiple proxies, including isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (isoGDGTs) and n-alkanes, from an alpine lake in southwestern China. On the one hand, the reconstructed monsoon precipitation shows a long-term increasing trend during the last deglaciation and a gradual decrease during the Holocene, with the highest-humidity period occurring in the early Holocene. Our result displays good consistency with the changes in regional mean annual precipitation, summer precipitation, and monsoon intensity during the last deglaciation and the Holocene. On the other hand, the reconstructed mean annual temperature inferred from the n-alkane proxy shows a long-term warm trend since the last deglaciation. Our result is consistent with the regional reconstruction of both mean annual and summer temperatures during the last deglaciation, while evident seasonal differences were observed for Holocene records with a cooling trend of summer temperature and a warm trend of mean annual temperature. Comprehensive comparison reveals that monsoon precipitation in the Indian monsoon region is mainly related to changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and land-sea thermal contrast controlled by boreal summer insolation. In addition, the increase in temperature during deglaciation is primarily attributed to the escalation of greenhouse gases (GHGs), while the divergent trend of seasonal temperature during the Holocene is mainly attributed to the changes in local seasonal insolation. Our research emphasizes that monsoon precipitation is a summer signature in the Indian monsoon region, which is consistent with the changes in summer temperature, while contrasting with the changes in mean annual temperature. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the seasonal difference in temperature changes when investigating the hydrothermal combination in Indian monsoon regions.

Recent summer warming over the western Mediterranean region is unprecedented since medieval times

Contextualising anthropogenic warming and investigating linkages between past climate variability and human history require high-resolution temperature reconstructions that extend before the period of instrumental measurements. Here, we present maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of 534 living and relict Pinus uncinata trees from undisturbed upper treeline ecotones in the Spanish central Pyrenees. Spanning the period 1119–2020 CE continuously, our new MXD composite chronology correlates significantly with gridded May–September mean temperatures over the western Mediterranean region (r = 0.76; p ≤ 0.001; 1950–2020 CE). Based on an integrative ensemble approach, our reconstruction reveals unprecedented summer warming since 2003 CE. The coldest and warmest reconstructed temperature anomalies are −3.4 (±1.4) °C in 1258 and 2.6 (±2.2) °C in 2017 (relative to 1961–90). Abrupt summer cooling of −1.5 (±1.0) °C was found after 20 large volcanic eruptions since medieval times. Comparison of our summer temperature reconstruction with newly compiled historical evidence from the Iberian Peninsula suggests a lack of military conflict during or following exceptionally hot or cold summers, as well as a general tendency towards less warfare and more stable wheat prices during warmer periods. Our study demonstrates the importance of updating and refining annually resolved and absolutely dated climate reconstructions to place recent trends and extremes of anthropogenic warming in a long-term context of natural temperature variability, and to better understand how past climate and environmental changes affected ecological and societal systems.

Impacts of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Volcanic Forcing on the Late Summer Temperature of the Southern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract In this paper, we present a late summer (August–September) temperature reconstruction over the period 1792–2020 based on a tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) chronology for the southern Tibetan Plateau (TP). The reconstruction explained 66.2% of the variance in the instrumental temperature records during the calibration period 1960–2020 and captured the warming trend since the 1960s, which would support the current warming on the TP. In addition, a warming hiatus existed during 2001–12 and the last 20 years (2000–20) were the warmest period in the past two centuries. The reconstruction matched other MXD- and mean latewood density (LWD)-based late summer temperature reconstructions from neighboring regions, and fluctuated in synchrony with the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature during 1850–2020. Multitaper method analysis and wavelet analysis revealed significant periodicities of 2–3, 20–30, and 40–60 years in the reconstructed series. Our reconstructed series was very consistent and highly correlated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). During the warm phase of the AMO, higher pressure and divergent horizontal winds over the TP contribute to warmer summers in the region. In addition, we found that the southern TP experienced the lowest temperature and downward solar radiation in the second year following large volcanic eruptions. The decrease in downward solar radiation may be directly responsible for the occurrence of the lowest temperatures. The results indicate that the AMO and large volcanic eruptions were impacting factors on temperature in our study area.

Holocene summer temperature record based on branched tetraethers in Northeast China

The temperature evolution during the Holocene shows conflicting patterns and yields the controversy regarding whether the Holocene followed a warming or cooling trend. Resolving this controversy is critical for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change and evaluating global warming on a longer timescale. Here we present a quantitative summer temperature reconstruction based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers analyzed from a sedimentary sequence retrieved from the volcanic lake Kielguo crater lake in Northeast (NE) China. Our record revealed that the summer temperature in NE China followed a rough cooling trend during ~10–2.2 cal ka BP and increased after ~2.2 cal ka BP. The warmest period appeared at ~10–8.8 cal ka BP with ~15.8°C, and the coldest time occurred at ~2.3 cal ka BP with ~13.4°C. Compared with other temperature records from NE China, we conclude that the summer and winter temperature change trends in NE China were probably controlled by the summer and winter insolation respectively, and the ice volume. The mean annual temperature changes in NE China resulted from the superposition of summer cooling and winter warming during the Holocene, and the decrease in ice volume forcing the increase in mean annual temperatures before ~7–6 cal ka BP. The switch in mean annual temperature changes was probably linked with the collapse of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

Holocene summer temperature reconstruction based on a chironomid record from Sierra Nevada, southern Spain

Obtaining accurate temperature reconstructions from the past is crucial in understanding the consequences of changes in external climate forcings, such as orbital-scale insolation or multidecadal to centennial-scale variability on the climate system and the environment. In addition, these reconstructions help in comprehending the amplitude of natural temperature changes in the past, which can assist in evaluating the amplitude and rate of recent anthropogenic global warming. Here we present the first detailed Holocene mean July air temperature reconstruction based on chironomid assemblages from sediments retrieved from Laguna de Río Seco, an alpine lake in Sierra Nevada, southern Spain. Coldest climate conditions are recorded during the last glacial maximum and the last deglaciation. Warming occurred in the Early Holocene and warmest summer temperature conditions and the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) occurred in the interval roughly between 9000 and 7200 cal yr BP, concurrent with summer insolation maxima. Rapid cooling of ∼1.5 °C occurred after the warmest maximum and between ∼7200 and 6500 cal yr BP, and temperatures stabilized between ∼6500 and 3000 cal yr BP. A further cooling began ∼3000 cal yr BP and culminated with coldest summer conditions during the Dark Ages (DA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) at ∼1550 cal yr BP (∼400 CE) and ∼200 cal yr BP (∼1750 CE), respectively. This cooling temperature trend was interrupted by warmer conditions during the Iberian-Roman Humid Period (IRHP) ∼2000 cal yr BP and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) at ∼1000 cal yr BP. Our reconstruction shows a greater than two-degree cooling during the Middle and Late Holocene, agreeing with global mean surface temperature (GMST) reconstructions. Modern climate warming (MCW) during summer exceeds the two-degree Celsius forecasted for the future due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, suggesting that recent warming is amplified at high elevations. Alpine environments and the biodiversity contained there are thus in danger if the observed temperature trend continues in the next decades.

Constraining the Nineteenth-Century Temperature Baseline for Global Warming

Abstract Since the Paris Agreement, climate policy has focused on 1.5° and 2°C maximum global warming targets. However, the agreement lacks a formal definition of the nineteenth-century “pre-industrial” temperature baseline for these targets. If global warming is estimated with respect to the 1850–1900 mean, as in the latest IPCC reports, uncertainty in early instrumental temperatures affects the quantification of total warming. Here, we analyze gridded datasets of instrumental observations together with large-scale climate reconstructions from tree rings to evaluate nineteenth-century baseline temperatures. From 1851 to 1900 warm season temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical landmasses were 0.20°C cooler than the twentieth-century mean, with a range of 0.14°–0.26°C among three instrumental datasets. At the same time, proxy-based temperature reconstructions show on average 0.39°C colder conditions with a range of 0.19°–0.55°C among six records. We show that anomalously low reconstructed temperatures at high latitudes are underrepresented in the instrumental fields, likely due to the lack of station records in these remote regions. The nineteenth-century offset between warmer instrumental and colder reconstructed temperatures is reduced by one-third if spatial coverage is reduced to those grid cells that overlap between the different temperature fields. The instrumental dataset from Berkeley Earth shows the smallest offset to the reconstructions indicating that additional stations included in this product, due to more liberal data selection, lead to cooler baseline temperatures. The limited early instrumental records and comparison with reconstructions suggest an overestimation of nineteenth-century temperatures, which in turn further reduces the probability of achieving the Paris targets. Significance Statement The warming targets formulated in the Paris Agreement use a “pre-industrial” temperature baseline that is affected by significant uncertainty in the instrumental temperature record. During the second half of the nineteenth century, much of the continental landmasses were not yet covered by the observational station network and existing records were often subject to inhomogeneities and biases, thus resulting in uncertainty regarding the large-scale mean temperature estimate. By analyzing summer temperature reconstructions from tree-rings for the Northern Hemisphere extratropical land areas, we examine an independent climate archive with a typically broader and more continuous spatial extent during the “pre-industrial” period. Despite the additional uncertainty when using climate reconstructions instead of direct observations, there is evidence for an overestimation of land temperature during the summer season in early instrumental data. Colder early instrumental temperatures would reduce the probability of reaching the Paris targets.

Pine Maximum Latewood Density in Semi‐Arid Northern China Records Hydroclimate Rather Than Temperature

AbstractLong records of tree‐ring maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements in conifers have been successfully employed to reconstruct summer temperature changes globally. Yet, the potential of MXD as a proxy in semi‐arid, low‐latitude regions for reconstructing either temperature or hydroclimate variability remains largely unexplored. Here, we developed a MXD data set of Chinese pine from semi‐arid northern China, and investigated its sensitivity to different climate variables. We found that the annual self‐calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index from previous August to current July displays the strongest influence on the MXD variation. The entire MXD chronology (covering 1736–2020) is highly consistent with nearby tree‐ring‐based annual precipitation and drought reconstructions at decadal timescales, confirming a temporally stable hydroclimate signal in our MXD record. In particular, the rapid wetting trend during the 2010–2020 period is well captured by the MXD data. This novel study has wide implications for future use of tree‐ring density data to reconstruct past climate changes globally.

Changes in habitat conditions in a Late Glacial fluviogenic lake in response to climatic fluctuations (Warta River valley, central Poland)

The Warta River valley was greatly influenced by the ice sheet of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). A small peatland located in the Warta drainage system is here used as a palaeoarchive of climatic and habitat changes during the Late Glacial (Weichselian). The Ługi sediment profile was investigated using multi-proxy (pollen, Chironomidae, Cladocera and geochemistry) analyses that recorded changes in a fluviogenic sedimentary depression. After the Poznań Phase (LGM), Ługi functioned as an oxbow lake that was cut off from the active river channel as a result of fluvial erosion. Since that time, the Warta River has flowed only along the section now occupied by the Jeziorsko Reservoir. Sedimentation of lacustrine deposits started at the beginning of the Late Glacial. Summer temperature reconstructions indicate cool Oldest and Younger Dryas, but no clear cooling in the Older Dryas. During the Younger Dryas the palaeolake was completely occupied by a peatland (fen), which periodically dried out during the Holocene. Investigation of this site has tracked the reaction of the habitat to climatic, hydrological and geomorphological changes throughout the Late Weichselian.

July Mean Temperature Reconstruction for the Southern Tibetan Plateau Based on Tree-Ring Width Data during 1763–2020

Long-term climate records are essential for understanding past climate change and its driving forces, which could provide insights for adapting to future climate change. This paper presents a reconstruction of the July mean temperature based on the Smith fir tree-ring width data over 1763–2020 for the southern Tibetan Plateau (TP). The reconstruction explained 50.1% of the variance in the instrumental temperature records during the calibration period 1979–2020. The reconstruction matched well with other summer temperature reconstructions from neighboring regions and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. A significant warming trend was found from the 1960s, and the warming accelerated since the 1990s. In the reconstructed series, multiple-taper method analysis and wavelet analysis revealed significant periodicities of 2–4-year, 20–30-year, and 70–80-year. Moreover, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) significantly influenced the July mean temperature in our study area. Our reconstruction can provide valuable data for climate change studies.

Dendroclimatic Reconstruction of Mean Annual Temperatures over Treeline Regions of Northern Bhutan Himalayas

The Himalayan region is likely particularly exposed to climate change indicated by the high regional rate of change. The number of high-resolution, well-calibrated, and long-term paleoclimate reconstructions are however regrettably few, to set this change in a longer-term context. The dendroclimatic reconstructions over Himalaya that do exist have only reconstructed summer season temperatures, and rarely or never attempted to reconstruct mean annual temperatures. The paucity of long meteorological records is a matter of concern when developing chronologies of climate sensitive tree-ring data in Bhutan, but the chronologies would theoretically be of high potential for extending short meteorological records back in time using trees in high-elevation ecotones. The objectives of this study were to explore dendroclimatic signals in tree-ring width chronologies of Abies densa growing in these extreme ecotones and to reconstruct, if possible, annual temperatures over Northern Bhutan. A point-by-point regression analysis revealed that the regional composite chronology was significantly and positively correlated with temperatures of all months of the current year, i.e., January to December. The chronology was highly correlated with annual temperatures (calibration period R = 0.67 and validation period R = 0.50; p &lt; 0.001) allowing a reconstruction of temperature over Northern Bhutan (NB-TEMR). The NB-TEMR reveals some common variations with summer temperature reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere as well as the Himalayan region, particularly w.r.t to the recent warming trend. The reconstruction covers the period of 1765 to 2017. This reconstruction reveals a warming trend since 1850 with higher rates of warming 1935 to 2017, but with a pause around 1940–1970. The warming is consistent with reduced volcanic activity and increase of greenhouse gases. We anticipate that our new reconstruction of annual mean temperature could be an important contribution for future climate change studies and assessments of climate models.

Possible Role of the Regional NDVI in the Expansion of the Chiefdom of Lijiang during the Ming Dynasty as Reflected by Historical Documents and Tree Rings

Abstract Although many studies have linked complex social processes with climate change, few have examined the connections between changes in environmental factors, resources, or energy and the evolution of civilizations on the Tibetan Plateau. The Chiefdom of Lijiang was a powerful chiefdom located on the eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Ming Dynasty; it began expanding after the 1460s. Although many studies have analyzed the political and economic motivations responsible for this expansion, no high-resolution climate records representing this period of the Chiefdom of Lijiang were available until now. Here, we obtain a 621-yr reconstruction of the April–July normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values derived from moisture-sensitive tree rings from the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Our NDVI reconstruction accounts for 40.4% of the variability in instrumentally measured NDVI values and can effectively represent the historical changes in regional vegetation productivity that occurred on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. In combination with a reconstruction of summer temperatures on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, these results reveal that the regional climate was relatively warm and persistently wet during the period 1466–1630. This period was characterized by long periods of above-mean vegetation productivity on the eastern Tibetan Plateau that coincided with the expansion of the Chiefdom of Lijiang. We therefore propose that the NDVI anomaly and associated favorable political environment may have affected the expansion of the Chiefdom of Lijiang. Instrumental climate data and tree rings also reveal that the early twenty-first-century drought on the eastern Tibetan Plateau was the hottest drought recorded over the past six centuries, in accordance with projections of warming over the Tibetan Plateau. Future climate warming may lead to the occurrence of similar droughts, with potentially severe consequences for modern Asia.

Tropical volcanoes synchronize eastern Canada with Northern Hemisphere millennial temperature variability

Although global and Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions are coherent with climate model simulations over the last millennium, reconstructed temperatures tend to diverge from simulations at smaller spatial scales. Yet, it remains unclear to what extent these regional peculiarities reflect region-specific internal climate variability or inadequate proxy coverage and quality. Here, we present a high-quality, millennial-long summer temperature reconstruction for northeastern North America, based on maximum latewood density, the most temperature-sensitive tree-ring proxy. Our reconstruction shows that a large majority (31 out of 44) of the coldest extremes can be attributed to explosive volcanic eruptions, with more persistent cooling following large tropical than extratropical events. These forced climate variations synchronize regional summer temperatures with hemispheric reconstructions and simulations at the multidecadal time scale. Our study highlights that tropical volcanism is the major driver of multidecadal temperature variations across spatial scales.

Spatio-temporal patterns of centennial-scale climate change over the Tibetan Plateau during the past two millennia and their possible mechanisms

In order to project future changes in climate and their corresponding environmental and social impacts, it is of utmost importance to understand the spatiotemporal patterns of past climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Although numerous records of late Holocene climate changes have been developed across the TP, the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in temperature and precipitation/moisture are unclear and a comprehensive review of this topic is urgently needed. Here, we present such a synthesis using currently available temperature and precipitation/moisture records from across the TP to understand spatial and temporal variations over the past two millennia. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) Temperature variations on the TP during the past two millennia are not homogeneous and show strong seasonality. Although patterns of mean annual temperature change on the TP during the past two millennia remain contradictory, summer temperature variations are generally consistent. The summer temperature reconstructions indicate that the warmest period during the past two millennia was in the middle ages, as opposed to the recent 20th century. 2) Precipitation/moisture patterns on the TP are spatially complex. The most striking feature is that an inverse pattern of precipitation/moisture variation can be detected over most parts of the TP between 600-1400 AD and 1400-1900 AD. Specifically, the eastern TP, southwestern TP, and part of the northeastern TP were generally wetter, whereas the southeastern TP, the southern TP, the northwestern TP, and part of the northeastern TP were generally drier during 600–1400 AD as compared to during 1400–1900 AD. However, such anti-phased hydroclimatic variability is not found in either the cold period of 1–600 AD or in the current warm period of the past century. This indicates that temperature and precipitation/moisture changes appear in multiple combinations. 3) Fluctuations in the intensity and seasonal movement of the westerlies and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) over the Tibetan Plateau, as well as the associated climate variability modes (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), ENSO, and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)), might be responsible for the spatially complex patterns of climate anomalies over TP during the past 2000 years. 4) The results highlight the need for more high-quality paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental reconstructions that span the past two millennia on the TP. Such reconstructions must have unambiguous climate significance, clear seasonality, site-specific calibration, and robust dating.

Dendroclimatology of Yellow-Cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis) and Temperature Variability on the Western Slopes of the North Cascades in Washington State, USA, from 1333 to 2015 CE

Long-term paleoclimate reconstructions of temperature provide context for the magnitude of recent anthropogenic warming, help quantify the climate response to radiative forcing, and better characterize the range of natural variability. In North America, temperature-sensitive tree-ring proxy data remain sparse, which limits the spatial and temporal extent of these reconstructions. Here we present an analysis of yellow-cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis) growth in Washington State (USA) and its relationship to climate. Combining empirical statistical analysis with a process model of xylogenesis, we show that tree-ring chronologies from three high-elevation sites in the North Cascades are primarily controlled by temperature. We then use these chronologies to reconstruct summer temperatures over the period 1333 to 2015 CE, adding a new proxy to the North American network of temperature-sensitive trees. Comparison with an existing large-scale spatial gridded reconstruction suggests this species offers important local and regional information on past temperatures.

Disentangling the Evidence of Milankovitch Forcing From Tree-Ring and Sedimentary Records

Tree-ring records constitute excellent high-resolution data and provide valuable information for climate science and paleoclimatology. Tree-ring reconstructions of past temperature variations agree to show evidence for annual-to-centennial anomalies in past climate and place the industrial-era warming in the context of the late Holocene climate patterns and regimes. Despite their wide use in paleoclimate research, however, tree rings have also been deemed unsuitable as low-frequency indicators of past climate. The arising debate concerns whether the millennia-long tree-ring records show signals of orbital forcing due to the Milankovitch cycles. Here, we produce a summer-temperature reconstruction from tree-ring chronology running through mid- and late-Holocene times (since 5486 BCE) comprising minimum blue channel light intensity (BI). The BI reconstruction correlates with existing and new tree-ring chronologies built from maximum latewood density (MXD) and, unlike the MXD data, shows temperature trends on Milankovitch scales comparable to various types of sedimentary proxy across the circumpolar Arctic. Our results demonstrate an unrevealed potential of novel, unconventional tree-ring variables to contribute to geoscience and climate research by their capability to provide paleoclimate estimates from inter-annual scales up to those relevant to orbital forcing.

Summer Temperature Reconstruction for the Source Area of the Northern Asian Great River Basins, Northern Mongolian Plateau Since 1190 CE and its Linkage With Inner Asian Historical Societal Changes

Mid-to-high latitudes of Asia and its adjacent Arctic area are some of the most sensitive regions to climate warming in Eurasia, but spatio-temporal temperature variation over this region is still limited by a lack of long-term temperature records. Here, June-July temperature reconstructions are developed from a Larix sibirica composite chronology that presents a stable positive linkage with large-scale recorded temperatures and spans 1190–2019 CE for the source area of the Northern Asian great river Basins, northern Mongolian Plateau, Inner Asia. The warmest reconstructed period and low summer sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean over the past 830 years was estimated to occur in the late twentieth century (1990s–present), with a mean temperature (15.2°C) higher than the long-term mean (13.9°C) of 1190–2019 CE, which is linked with the rapid increase in global temperature. A relationship also exists between the reconstructed temperature and the AMO index, suggesting that the atmospheric patterns over the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans influence the temperature variations of northern Mongolian Plateau. In addition, we also propose that the warm climate promoted high vegetation productivity and favored the formation of power of the nomadic tribes in the Mongolian Plateau, such as the warm periods 1210s–1250s and 1400s–1430s. Our temperature reconstruction provides us with an opportunity to understand the regional effects of climate warming from multiple perspectives.