Sudden Shocks Research Articles

Hold the chair: the link between short-term exposure and the managerial change in an emerging market during the pandemic

PurposeThis paper aims to study the effect of short-term firm-level exposure on managerial change during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Chinese economy. Such a link is not explored in the existing COVID-19 and resource-based theory (RBT) literature.Design/methodology/approachThe logit regression model is utilized to examine the effect of short-term exposure on the probability of managerial change in the Chinese economy. Logit models based on coarsened exact matching (CEM) are also used in the robustness checks part of the study. The results are robust to different specifications.FindingsThe obtained findings show that short-term exposure has a significantly positive effect on the probability of managerial change during the pandemic.Research limitations/implicationsUnder the RBT approach, this study sheds new light on the relationship between short-term financial exposure and managerial change under uncertainty during the pandemic.Practical implicationsC-Suite executives need to be prepared for short-term sudden shocks. According to the findings of the study, the relationship between short-term sudden shocks and short-term financial exposure is a factor that C-suite executives should pay attention to.Social implicationsShort-term sudden shocks can support managerial change, pushing society into uncertainty and negatively affecting the private sector. In this context, it has a structure that can amplify uncertainty.Originality/valueIn the existing COVID-19 literature, the effect of short-term exposure on the probability of managerial change is under researched, especially in the emerging markets-based RBT and COVID-19 literature. The present study offers an insight into the link between short-term exposure and the probability of managerial change during the pandemic.

Model of “secular” cycle of financial capital accumulation

Crises hitting the world economy since the end of the previous century need a deeper explanation than effects of numerous sudden shocks. According to G. Arrighi’s theory, they manifest the final phase of North-American cycle of capital accumulation. Although analytically promising, the theory doesn’t meet broad recognition. A reason could be its weak formalization. This article addresses this problem by developing a mathematical model of capital growth rates. They are measured by nominal yield and interest rates which represent increments of capital in its general, financial form. If capital level follows a logistic path then its growth rate should be described by logistic differential equation. The model is brought to data on government bonds yields in Great Britain in XVIII– XIX centuries and USA — in XX century up to now. The study provides evidence for the pivotal role of financial-capital accumulation in systemic cycles and its S-shaped form. Besides, it reveals importance of trade balance in specifying cycle phases of domestic and global capital expansion.

Leveraging crop yield forecasts using satellite information for early warning in Senegal

Agricultural losses driven by climate variability and anthropogenic pressures have severely impacted food security in Senegal. There is a crucial need to generate early warning signals for the upcoming season to enhance food security in response to the sudden climate shocks like drought. In this study, we investigated the spatial distribution of maize and groundnut using factor analysis with a principal component approach. We aimed to identify suitable predictors of crop yields for the development of a seasonal yield prediction model. Subsequently, multi-regression analysis was performed to predict crop yield based on various combinations of satellite-derived vegetation and climate (rainfall) datasets as well as agronomic data from Senegal's 40 districts between 2010 and 2021. Studies revealed a strong correlation between seasonal rainfall (May to September) and crop yield: a 10–20% decline in rainfall can lead to crop losses. The accuracy of the yield prediction model, built on the best performing scenarios for each district based on monsoon onset, duration, and planting time, exceeded 0.5 (R-squared) for all districts when combining rainfall and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. The model prediction accuracy varied between 0.6 and 0.8 for major crop growing areas. The study emphasizes that refining the yield prediction model using machine learning techniques can improve its accuracy and enable its implementation in early warning systems. This enhanced capability could bolster Senegal's resilience to climate change by aiding decision-makers and planners in developing more effective strategies to ensure food security.

Urban Internal Network Structure and Resilience Characteristics from the Perspective of Population Mobility: A Case Study of Nanjing, China

In the face of diverse chronic pressures and increased factor mobility, the resilience of urban internal network structures has become a cutting-edge research topic. This study utilizes 2019 mobile signaling big data to construct employment and recreational flow networks among 101 townships and streets within Nanjing City. Based on the characteristics of these network structures, the resilience of the network structure is measured from the perspectives of density, symmetry, and transmissibility through interruption simulation techniques. The results show that the intensity of population mobility within Nanjing presents a general decay from the central urban area to the outer layers. In the employment scenario, cross-river population mobility is more frequent, while in the recreational scenario, the natural barrier effect of the Yangtze River is prominent. Due to the concentration of employment centers and high spatial heterogeneity, the employment flow network exhibits greater vulnerability to sudden shocks. Townships and streets with weighted degree values ranking around 60 and 80 are of great importance for maintaining the normal operation of both employment and recreational flow networks. Strengthening the construction of resilient parks and village planning within resilient cities can enhance the risk resistance of employment and recreational flow networks.

Unbalanced burden is escalating: Urban inequality landscape under sudden shocks?

Sudden and unforeseen events, notably the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored and exacerbated pre-existing urban inequalities. These disruptions have disproportionately affected the most vulnerable sectors of society, thereby further aggravating existing inequalities. Addressing these inequality issues requires systematic research into academic community's response to significant global disturbances. Therefore, we have integrated bibliometric analysis with meta-analysis (quantitatively combines research results from systematic reviews) techniques, culminating in a research framework based on KNIME software (a software for creating data applications and services) and Python programming. Noteworthy for its open-source nature, scalability, and reproducibility, this framework tries to decode the developmental patterns and response characteristics of urban inequality research under sudden shocks. Additionally, it seeks to clarify its causal pathways, predict the emergence of new or strengthened inequalities, and provide effective suggestions to promote inclusive and sustainable urban development. Our findings indicate that the COVID-19 has exacerbated the existing urban inequality, attracting widespread attention in fields such as society and public health. Issues of fairness and justice of human health, resource allocation, urban resilience and vulnerability have become hot topics around COVID-19 related urban inequalities. Simultaneously, the sudden shocks have led to disparities in research areas and themes. Social, economic, and urban planning are the main drivers behind urban inequality, and particularly affecting vulnerable groups, including low-income populations and those living in remote regions. Before and after the COVID-19, the average global urban inequality are 0.57 and 0.61, respectively. Inequality issues are particularly severe in Africa and countries such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. The pandemic changed the focus of urban inequality to health and social issues, worsening inequality performance in these regions and deepening global gaps. Additionally, countries with high urban inequality are more prone to large-scale outbreaks and higher mortality rates. To this end, we advocate academia for in-depth research and comprehensive evaluation, focusing on vulnerable groups, providing integrated policy recommendations, supporting interdisciplinary exchanges and cooperation, and committing to find long-term sustainable solutions. These efforts aim to propose more comprehensive and reasonable solutions to alleviate and address complex urban inequality issues under sudden shocks.

Financial risk analysis of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects case study on Pandaan - Malang Toll Road

This study aims to analyze the financial risks faced by the Pandaan-Malang Toll Road PPP (Public-Private Partnership) project in Indonesia. Data collection techniques include semi-structured in-depth interviews with parties related to the PPP project, including the Directorate General of Infrastructure Financing, the Tolling Road Management Agency (government), and Business Entities (PT Jasamarga Pandaan Malang). The collected data will be analyzed to determine the financial risk factors faced by PPP projects and the financial controls carried out to overcome financial risks in PPP. The results show that the risk of errors in forecasting in the calculation of demand, cost, and revenue projections is a risk that almost often occurs. The Government emphasizes the importance of optimizing the role of PII (Persero) or Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund (IIGF) as an Infrastructure Guarantee Business Entity (BUPI) to ensure financial sustainability and minimize the impact of sudden shocks on the State Budget due to the provision of Government Guarantees for cooperation projects. This study provides insights or frameworks that can be applied to similar projects, helping to improve risk assessment and decision-making processes in future infrastructure developments.

Development and mechanical properties evaluation of environmentally sustainable composite material using various reinforcements with epoxy

In this study, the mechanical properties of advanced composites fabricated by the hand lay-up process were investigated. The mechanical properties evaluated in this study included tensile strength, flexural strength, and impact strength. Tensile tests were performed to measure the resistance of the composites to pulling forces, while flexural tests assessed their resistance to bending. Impact tests, on the other hand, determine the material's ability to absorb sudden forces or shocks. Results showed that all the composite materials exhibited high tensile strength, with the Carbon fiber epoxy composite displaying the highest value due to the exceptional strength of carbon fibers. In terms of flexural strength, the Glass-Fiber Polymer Matrix composite demonstrated the highest resistance to bending, while the Kevlar-Epoxy composite exhibited the highest impact strength, owing to the unique properties of Kevlar fibers, which offer excellent energy absorption capabilities. In the hardness test, the Kevlar composite to epoxy matrix showed hardness from HRB 105 to HRB 125 an increase of 19.04 %, while fiberglass increased hardness by 14.2 % and carbon fiber by 16.3 %. The Impact test shows that the Kevlar composite to epoxy matrix showed hardness from HRB 105 to HRB 125 an increase of 19.04 %, while fiberglass increased hardness by 14.2 % and carbon fiber by 16.3 %. Kevlar reinforcing composite produced the highest flexural strength, compared to neat epoxy by 91.7 %. Carbon fibre composites were 52.5 % higher, whereas glass fibre composites were 15.6 % higher. SEM imaging results from the cross-sections show that the best bonding between the base material and the fibers was observed for Kevlar reinforced with epoxy. All mechanical test showed that Kevlar (Aramid fiber) provides excellent mechanical properties when compared to carbon fibre and glass fibre. Hence, Kevlar (aramid fiber) can be an option for preparing light weight helmets, automobiles, aeronautics, safety equipments etc.

Highly Tough Yet Stiff, Transparent, and Recyclable PMMA Nanocomposites Incorporating TPU Nanofibril Networks with High Thermal Stability and Strong Interfacial Adhesion.

In this paper, we develop high aspect ratio nanofibrils from a polycaprolactone-based thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) and evaluate their performance as a toughening agent. Poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) was chosen as the matrix material because of its inherent brittleness and low resistance to sudden shocks and impact. We show that the addition of as little as 3 wt % of TPU nanofibrils with an average diameter of ∼98 nm and very high aspect ratio can significantly improve both the tensile toughness (∼212%) and impact strength (∼40%) of the chosen matrix (i.e., PMMA) without compromising its original strength, stiffness, and transparency. We compare the performance of TPU nanofibrils with TPU spherical particles─the form TPU typically manifests into when melt-mixed with an immiscible polymer. Our findings highlight that the structure of TPU plays a crucial role in determining the critical concentration of TPU needed for the brittle-ductile transition of the matrix. We also provide new and valuable insights into the unique interfacial interaction (i.e., formation of fibrillar bridges) observed between the PMMA matrix and TPU. We also show that the inclusion of 3 wt % of TPU nanofibrils can notably enhance resistance to creep deformation, even at temperatures close to the glass transition temperature of the matrix. Finally, we evaluate recyclability and demonstrate that the composite containing 3 wt % of TPU nanofibrils can be mechanically recycled without losing any properties. The proposed TPU nanofibrils can withstand repeated reprocessing at temperatures up to 190 °C due to their very high melting point and thermal stability. This presents the opportunity for them to be utilized not just with amorphous PMMA, but also with a range of other materials that can be processed at or below this temperature to remarkably improve their toughness without sacrificing strength and stiffness.

A Markov‐switching spatio‐temporal ARCH model

Stock market indices are volatile by nature, and sudden shocks are known to affect volatility patterns. The autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and generalized ARCH (GARCH) models neglect structural breaks triggered by sudden shocks that may lead to an overestimation of persistence, causing an upward bias in the estimates. Different regime‐switching models that have abrupt regime‐switching governed by a Markov chain were developed to model volatility in financial time series data. Volatility modelling was also extended to spatially interconnected time series, resulting in spatial variants of ARCH models. This inspired us to propose a Markov switching framework of the spatio‐temporal log‐ARCH model. In this article, we discuss the Markov‐switching extension of the model, the estimation procedure and the smooth inferences of the regimes. The Monte Carlo simulation studies show that the maximum likelihood estimation method for our proposed model has good finite sample properties. The proposed model was applied to 28 stock indices' data that were presumably affected by the 2015–2016 Chinese stock market crash. The results showed that our model is a better fit compared to that of the one‐regime counterpart. Furthermore, the smoothed inference of the data indicated the approximate periods where structural breaks occurred. This model can capture structural breaks that simultaneously occur in nearby locations.

Assessing the trade response to pandemic-related non-tariff measures

ABSTRACT This paper assesses the global trade effects of COVID-19-related non-tariff measures (NTMs), with a particular emphasis on their varied impacts across products and income groups over time. Utilizing a newly constructed NTM dataset alongside monthly trade data at the product level, we employ an event study framework to analyze the implications of trade-facilitating and trade-restricting NTMs implemented during the pandemic. Our main findings indicate an average increase of 1.2% in imports due to trade-facilitating NTMs and a 12% decrease in exports due to trade-restricting NTMs. Additionally, the analysis highlights variations in trade responses at the product level and significant differences across countries of varying income levels. This research enhances our understanding of the trade response to sudden trade cost shocks, offering critical insights into the impact of temporary trade measures within the context of a global health crisis and accompanying supply chain disruptions.

How do market volatility and risk aversion sentiment inter-influence over time? Evidence from Chinese SSE 50 ETF options

We propose to implement the TVP-VAR-SV model and the spillover index approach to investigate the dynamics of mutual influences between market volatility and risk aversion sentiment (represented by variance risk premium), from aspects of realized variance (RV) and implied variance (IV). We innovatively study the evolution of volatility information transmission mechanisms by analyzing time-varying impulse response and dynamic connectedness in the Chinese market. Upon inspecting shock effects from investor sentiment to RV and IV, we discover that investor sentiment can cause sudden shocks on realized volatility but produce expansive shocks on expected volatility. As we compare spillover effects in call and put options, we find that (i) sentiments in put option contain more volatility information and can affect market volatility, while sentiments in call option primarily perceive volatility spillovers from market volatility, and (ii) investor sentiments in call (put) option become to present more volatility information in a bullish (bearish) market. Our study provides valuable insights on behavioral finance theory and portfolio risk management.

Why co-working spaces in an analogical environment exhibit different recovery abilities under the COVID-19 shock? Evidence from China

Although co-working spaces have attracted significant attention as a type of platform organisation in the sharing economy, little is known about why some spaces faced with an analogical environment demonstrate obvious differences in recovery abilities after sudden shocks, such as the one caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand this novel phenomenon, we collected data from the Chengdu high-tech zone and employed grounded theory and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to identify the possible causal configurations for high levels of resilience in small and medium-sized platform organisations. Our findings reveal that (1) there are five antecedent configurations that multi-morphologically lead to the same outcome; (2) compared with other antecedent conditions, networking ability and diverse value co-creation with customers play more important roles in the formation of a high level of co-working spaces’ resilience; (3) under certain circumstances, a substitutional relationship exists between industrial experience and communication ability; and (4) when the endogenous factors of organisations (e.g. their abilities and resources) coincide with complex external environments, organisational resilience is expressed. In this manner, our study contributes to the organisational resilience literature and research on co-working spaces. Some practical suggestions for the sustainable development of co-working spaces are also provided.

Studija o otpornosti na krizu Poljskih kotiranih kompanija nakon pandemije

Businesses’ response to black swans is crucial to developing a country’s economy. Resilience can be defined as the company’s ability to adapt and survive despite sudden shocks and environmental changes. Crisis resilience allows companies to overcome emerging shocks, remain competitive, and maintain a sound financial position. Theoretical considerations focus on the essence of crises and the concept of resilience in management sciences. The article aims to assess Polish companies’ resilience from the construction sector to the shock caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The empirical study of Polish listed companies was conducted based on financial statements for 2017-2021, divided into stable and unstable periods. The indicators of liquidity, operational efficiency, and profitability were evaluated. In addition, competitors’ market share was considered, using the Herfindahl- Hirschman index to measure industry concentration.

The resilient self-employability of women and senior people after sudden economic shocks

In recent times, various crises have negatively affected the financial stability, job security, and health of countless individuals. According to research, different factors that operate at both the individual and contextual levels can play a prominent role in influencing people's self-employment during periods of economic downturn. This study investigates the changes in the likelihood of self-employment by gender and age across various contexts following sudden shocks. By analyzing the intersection of occupational choice and business cycle theories, this research offers insights into how crises affect people's ability to work for themselves. Using a sample of over 250,000 individuals from sixteen countries and applying a multilevel binary logistic regression analysis, the results confirm that women and older individuals are less inclined to be self-employed in general. However, unexpected economic recessions may lead to a slight increase in their likelihood of self-employment. Furthermore, when women and seniors live in a higher GDP per capita context, this context positively moderates the relationship between gender, age, and the propensity for entrepreneurship. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers seeking to promote resilient self-employment among vulnerable individuals for post-crisis recovery.

Enhancing heart failure management: a comprehensive analysis of continuous remote monitoring vs. standard care in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices

Abstract Background Utilizing remote monitoring (RM) in patients with heart failure (HF) who have cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIED) proves to be a dependable method for closely adhering to device-specific and heart failure-related parameters. While there is some favorable outcome data, the results remain incomplete. Aims We aimed to evaluate the advantages of continuous RM compared to the standard of care (SoC) in reducing all-cause mortality, cardiovascular-related death (CV), sudden cardiac death, and ICD shocks. Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCT) testing RM vs. SoC for the management of HF patients were performed. Endpoints were all-cause mortality, CV mortality, sudden cardiac death, ICD shocks. Odds ratios (ORs), Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. CENTRAL, EMBASE and MEDLINE were searched up, and only randomized controlled studies were included. Results Sixteen RCTs that enrolled a total of 11,140 patients were identified to evaluate all-cause mortality, resulting in an HR 0.83 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.96). When CV mortality was assessed, there was a significant difference between the RM group and SoC group, and the HR was 0.81 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.97) Moreover RM did not have an effect on the rate of sudden cardiac death and ICD shocks. Conclusions RM proved to be superior in reducing all-cause mortality and CV mortality compared to SoC despite of the heterogeneous study cohorts and unstandardized alert actions. However, the use of RM did not influence the occurrence of sudden cardiac death and ICD shocks.

Food system futures in Finland: How do experts evaluate changes in resilience up to 2030?

Food security has received much attention since sudden shocks like Covid-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Resilience to sudden changes and disruptions is called for to maintain food availability in societies. In this study, potential disruptions and changes in the Finnish food system’s operating environment were evaluated. We focused on two future challenges: 1) what key disruptions will confront the food system until 2030; and 2) how will the Finnish food system change based on the experts’ views, and what measures will develop resilience up to 2030? We used the Delphi technique for data gathering. According to the results, the most significant shock at all three levels, national, EU, and global, was the disruptions caused by climate change (the increase in extreme climate and weather phenomena). An increase in the efficient recycling of nutrients was seen as most desirable, and an increase in the costs associated with recovery from disturbances and shocks was seen as most likely. Reducing inputs’ dependence on imports was seen as a key measure for developing resilience. Two constructed scenarios were presented, which highlight the determinants and uncertainties in the development of resilience in Finland.

Assessing water quality in a distribution network based on hydraulic conditions

Abnormalities in hydraulic conditions inside a water distribution network are strongly related to the deterioration of drinking water quality. Leaking pipes and valves cause changes to the hydraulic conditions and allow the entry of impurities into the distribution system. Sudden flow and pressure shocks can detach soft deposits and biofilms from the pipe surface, resulting in deterioration of water quality. Online water quality measurements in a distribution network are scarce, but more common online flow and pressure measurements reveal the changes in hydraulic conditions in a distribution network and can be utilized to assess the water quality continuously and near real-time via modelling. Here, a data-driven model based solely on the online flow and pressure measurements in a distribution network for assessing the water quality at the end of an urban district metered area is presented. With the accuracy of R2 0.77, the developed data-driven model is able to assess the level of and the changes in potable water quality in a non-laborious and cost-effective way, also enabling proactive operations to ensure the distribution of high-quality drinking water to the consumers.

Competitive capabilities and firm performance: A study among small rural firms

Manufacturing micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in a developing country plays a distinctive and decisive role in its economic development. Despite its importance, various challenges confront these units, dragging them to the point of closure. Consequent to such sudden shocks to the economy, and resource deficiencies, these units become unable to develop competencies crucial to their sustenance. The present research purports to study whether MSMEs in the manufacturing sector employ capabilities of innovation, human resource practices (HRP), information and communication technology (ICT), and intellectual property rights (IPR) that are vital to improving their performance. The study employs the theory of resource-based view (RBV) to identify the specific capabilities that make manufacturing MSMEs competitive, as reflected through better firm performance. A regression analysis is performed among 90 manufacturing MSMEs to determine the relationship between capabilities and firm performance (combined and individual). The capabilities that significantly and positively contribute to firm performance are found to be competitive, and vice versa. The findings unambiguously reveal that MSMEs in rural areas are at a stage of developing competencies; albeit the pace being relatively slow.

Building Script of Jump Scare Scene in Indonesian Horror Box Office Film “KKN Di Desa Penari”

A jump scare is a technique used in horror films that aims to surprise the audience by using a sudden change of image, loud sound, or both for generating powerful simulated fear experiences in films. “KKN di Desa Penari” is a film that has been watched by over 10 million viewers in cinemas. This film contains believable real-event content-wise based on threads written on Social Media that goes viral. This study aims to investigate how “KKN di Desa Penari”'s script builds jump scare scenes in film and creates fears that are needed as a great experience for viewers. This study describes scene components in script and mise-en-scene that elevates viewers' expression on jump scare by conducting analysis from the original script and film “KKN di Desa Penari”. In conclusion, this study shows that the script for the jump scare scene in this film is not only about sudden immediate shocks and jump scares but also in terms of building a sense of fear in the script using components in scene design, which are turning points, setup/payoff, emotional dynamics, natural choice.
 Keywords: jump scare; horror; film; kkn di desa penari; script.

Financial Insecurity Among Medicaid Home Care Aides in Washington State

This study aims to explore the financial status of Medicaid Home Care Aides (HCAs) working in Washington State (WA). This study importantly covers both economic and psychological components of financial insecurity, a comprehensive approach that may help advance policy development for HCAs’ financial security. An online survey was conducted from April to May 2019 among employed WA HCAs. The descriptive analyses were conducted using Stata. About two-thirds earned less than $30,000 annually (62%) from all their jobs combined, including non-caregiving work. Over 1 in 4 reported having over $40 k in long-term debt (28%). More than 3 in 4 reported they could only cover housing and basic living expenses using savings for less than 2 months (76%), showing likely unreadiness for sudden financial shocks (financial vulnerability). Nearly 3 in 4 HCAs (73%) experienced at least one material hardship that include housing hardship, utilities hardship, medical hardship, and food insecurity. One in 4 expressed their financial stress was severe. More WA HCAs experienced material hardships (73%) than U.S. low-income families (64.2%). In 2021, the median annual wage for WA HCAs was about 20% higher than the national one; however, their wages still remain below the living wage. In conclusion, although WA HCAs’ wages are comparable to national averages, they still experience financial vulnerability and material hardships. Therefore, achieving living wages is necessary for WA HCAs.