Succession Of Coups Research Articles

Armed forces and airwaves: media control and military coups in autocracies

ABSTRACT Media play a key role in military coups. Yet, there is little research on information environments and coups. Therefore, this article asks whether the extent of media control affects coup attempts and coup success in dictatorships. It argues that autocracies with extensive media control offer an opaque decision environment for plotters, thus decreasing the likelihood of coup attempts. On the outcome stage, extensive media control is expected to lower the prospects of success as conspirators struggle to control public information. Additionally, coups are disaggregated, arguing that the effect of media control varies between regime change and leader reshuffling coups. The arguments are tested by employing regression analyses. As expected, strong media control renders coup attempts and success less likely. While I do not find robust evidence for a varying effect of media control on different types of coup attempts, its influence on coup success is driven by regime change coups.

Fiji’s Foreign Relations: Retrospect and Prospect

Of all the island states of the Southwest Pacific, Fiji’s foreign relations have been the most fraught since the advent of independence in the region, due largely to a succession of coups d'état. These have invariably precipitated adverse responses from major partners and aid donors, notably Australia, New Zealand, the United States and the European Union. The last coup in 2006 also unsettled relations in Fiji’s more immediate region, especially among some of its smaller Polynesian neighbours, contributing to Fiji’s unprecedented suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum. This article reviews Fiji’s foreign relations from the time of independence in 1970 through the period of successive coups to the 2014 elections. It also examines Bainimarama’s strategies in extending foreign relations in the broader international sphere as well as issues surrounding the ‘normalisation’ of relations with its traditional partners.

The Impact of Institutional Coup-Proofing on Coup Attempts and Coup Outcomes

Coup-proofing pertains to political leaders’ strategies that will prevent groups inside or outside the state apparatus from seizing power via a coup d’état. One particular form of these strategies divides a country’s military into rivaling organizations, thereby creating an artificial balance between and structural obstacles for the armed forces. Despite the general claim that this institutional coup-proofing is indeed effective, a recent empirical study does not obtain evidence for a negative impact on the risk of coup attempts or coup outcomes. The authors take this finding as a motivation for their re-evaluation of the effect of institutional coup-proofing on coup risk and outcomes. By developing an argument that rests on the concepts of collective action and polarization, it is contended that institutional coup-proofing and coups are characterized by a U-shaped relationship: Institutional coup-proofing is likely to lower the likelihood of coup onsets and successful outcomes, yet only until a tipping point of about two equally strong military organizations. After this turning point, the risk of coup onset as well as coup success may increase again. Using time-series cross-section data for 1975–1999, the authors find strong and robust support for their claims in terms of coup onset, but not coup outcomes.

Endemic revolution: HLA Hart, custom and the constitution of the Fiji Islands

The succession of military coups and constitutional revolutions in recent Fijian history poses numerous problems, both urgent practical ones and complex theoretical ones. One set of theoretical questions concerns the issue of legal continuity and discontinuity within a particular society or legal system. Another set of such questions concerns the relationship between formal legal systems and the customs and social conventions of non-western societies. In their application to Fiji, both sets of questions are interrelated, for the lack of constitutional continuity that Fiji has experienced cannot properly be understood without appreciating the influence of cultural beliefs and practices on the operation of Fiji's constitution and legal system.There are numerous attempts in the literature to address these questions of continuity/discontinuity and of the relationship between formal and customary law. HLA Hart sought to address both sets of questions in a theoretically and descriptively integrated way. Law, for Hart, is a special kind of social rule, distinguished from mere customs and conventions because it forms part of a formal legal system, the identity of which is ascertained by reference to the ‘rule of recognition’. On Hart's account, a fully effective constitutional revolution occurs when there is the substitution of one rule of recognition for another. Hart thus has an account of legal revolution. However, it is an account that depends upon a theoretically laden description of certain discrete social practices.The succession of coups and revolutions in recent Fijian history offers an opportunity to test the applicability of these aspects of Hart's theory to a difficult case example. Like many similar countries of the South Pacific and elsewhere, Fiji has a strong set of traditional customs and mores co-existing in a complex relationship with a formal system of law. In addition, however, Fiji has undergone a series of coups and revolutions which have challenged the formal system of law and demonstrated the continuing force of the traditional sources of power within the country. Can Hart's theory account for the state of the ‘law’ in Fiji? That is the question we address in this article. In particular, we use qualitative empirical evidence from interviews with a representative sample of participants within Fijian society to test whether Hart's assumptions and analysis hold true. We find that in certain important respects they do not. We conclude, in essence, that an interesting paradox exists: that the descriptive inadequacy of Hart's theory lies in the fact that it incorporates a set of normative values about the rule of law that are not generally shared, at least in not quite the same way, by the people of Fiji.

The origins of military autonomy in Fiji: a tale of three coups

Alongside Thailand and Pakistan, Fiji has gained a reputation as the most coup-prone state in the Asia-Pacific region. Following a succession of coups, Fiji's military eventually established a longer-term authoritarian administration, inviting comparisons with Burma and Indonesia under Suharto, where military rulers also saw themselves as playing an overarching guardian role transcending ethnic cleavages. Yet, unlike Burma and Indonesia, Fiji's military has no heroic history of involvement in a national liberation struggle and faces no serious threat to territorial integrity. This article examines the dynamics of Fiji's three coups and the accompanying shifts in military orientation. During the initial coups, the military served principally as an instrument of the country's ethnic Fijian chiefly elite. Since the third coup, in December 2006, it has not only confronted key institutions of Fijian power, including the Great Council of Chiefs and the Methodist Church, but also dismantled core bases of Fiji Indian politics, including sugar cane farmers’ organisations and municipal councils. International focus on the electoral timetable has distracted attention from these deeper-seated changes. Fiji has reached the end of a long era of bicommunal ethnic politics, with schisms amongst indigenous Fijian factions likely to dominate the country's politics in the future.

Analysis of Radio Propaganda in the 1953 Iran Coup

In 1953, the United States assisted in a coup that removed Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddeq from office. Analysis of radio broadcasts during and after the coup provides a window for scrutinizing the event and understanding the motivations of all sides. The United States monitoring agency, the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), snatched these ephemeral broadcasts from the ether for posterity. This study expands the coup narrative based on these broadcasts. An analysis of the transcripts suggests that assertions that the Central Intelligence Agency's covert propaganda program resulted in the coup's success are an oversimplification. On the contrary, the effect of both Mosaddeq's and the Tudeh party's actions unwittingly legitimized the coup-plotters' propaganda in the weeks prior to the coup and contributed more to the success of the coup.

Coup Process and Private Information Under Autocracy

Traditional point views the success of coup as the shifting of focal point from supporting dictator to supporting coup plotter, which cannot be rationalized. When we look at coup’s micro-process, we find that it is rationalizable. In this paper, I propose a model of coup with unique sub-game perfect equilibrium that focus on plotter and follower’s decision making process, and use it to study how the revelation of plotter’s ability affects the winning chance thus his decision of whether to start a coup. I show that the plotter’s income plays as a double edged-sword to the safety of the dictator. On one hand, high income decreases plotter’s motivation; on the other hand, it augments the plotter’s winning chance once coup is implemented. Meanwhile, this model also shows hidden ability is more effective than visible power in the coup process. Moreover, it is found that regime becomes more stable after some time without coup.

References to Islam and Women in the Afghan Constitution

AbstractThis paper is presented in three parts and several sections. The first part consists of a stocktaking of recent developments and dynamics that have engaged President Hamid Karzai's government ever since he came to power in December 2001. A mixed picture is presented which draws attention to many problems that have impeded reconstruction efforts in the country. Some positive developments have also occurred including, for example, the introduction of a new constitution, presidential and parliamentary elections, as well as resumption of schooling for children that by mid-2006 had numbered four million throughout the country. An overview of the previous constitutions and a brief historical perspective attempt to show how leadership flaws and internal differences in the royal household plunged Afghanistan into a succession of coups, foreign invasions, and catastrophic consequences for its people. Are there any lessons to be learnt? The second part of this essay focuses on a review and analysis of the 2004 constitution with special reference to Islam, and the last part takes a similar approach to women's rights.

Fifth time lucky?

The Iranian century is marked by a succession of coups, counter-coups, revolutions and returns to dictatorship. The 1979 revolution produced its own crop of dictators and tyrants, but now, it's time for another go at freedom

Bangladesh: Anatomy Of an Unsuccessful Military Coup

Little attention has been given to the subject of failed coups. This article contends that knowledge of unsuccessftd coups can shed valuable light to better understand successful coups. To this end, a short-lived coup in Bangladesh on 3 November 1975 is analyzed. The paper draws a distinction between legality and legitimacy, suggesting that although all coups are illegal, they vary in the degree of legitimacy, and the question of legitimacy is crucial to a coup's success. It is pointed out that the failure of the 3 November coup can be largely attributed to the failure of advancing legitimacy claims by the coup leaders-with fatal consequences.