Subtropical North Pacific Research Articles

How Well Can Current Climate Models Simulate the Connection of the Early Spring Aleutian Low to the Following Winter ENSO?

Abstract A recent study revealed an impact of the intensity of early spring Aleutian low (AL) on the succeeding winter ENSO. This study examines the ability of 41 climate models that participated in CMIP6 in simulating the early spring AL–winter ENSO connection. It is shown that there exists a large diversity among the models in simulating this AL–ENSO linkage. A number of models capture well the observed AL–ENSO connection and the associated physical processes. However, the AL–ENSO relation in several models is opposite to the observed. Diversity of the AL–ENSO connection is related to the spread in the spatial structure of AL-related atmospheric anomalies over the North Pacific. In the models that capture the observed AL–ENSO connection, weakened AL induces an anomalous anticyclone over the northern middle and high latitudes and an anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific. The resultant westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western-central Pacific (TWCP) induce an El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern in the following winter. By contrast, in the models with the AL–ENSO relation opposite to the observations, the AL-associated anomalous anticyclone over the North Pacific extends too southward. As such, the subtropical North Pacific is dominated by northeasterly wind anomalies and SST cooling. The subtropical North Pacific SST cooling induces easterly wind anomalies over the TWCP via wind–evaporation–SST feedback, and leads to a La Niña anomaly pattern in the following winter. The spread in the spatial structure of the AL-associated atmospheric anomalies over the North Pacific is partly due to the diversity in the amplitude of the climatological mean flow. Significance Statement A recent study suggested that variation of the AL intensity in early spring could exert a significant impact on the following winter ENSO. It indicated that inclusion of the early spring AL signal could improve the prediction of ENSO and to some extent help reduce the spring predictability barrier of ENSO. To employ the AL as a predictor in the ENSO prediction and forecast, the current climate model should have the ability to simulate realistically the early spring AL variation as well as the physical process linking the early spring AL with the subsequent winter ENSO. Hence, this study examines the performance of the current coupled climate models that participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating the linkage between the early spring AL and the following winter ENSO. We show that there exists a large diversity among the CMIP6 models in simulating the early spring AL–winter ENSO connection. A number of models capture well the observed AL–ENSO connection and the associated physical processes. However, the AL–ENSO relation in several models is opposite to the observed. The factors leading to the spread are further examined. Results of this study would have implications in improving our understanding of the impact of extratropical atmospheric forcing on the ENSO and improving the seasonal forecasting of the ENSO.

Seasonal variation of mixed layer depth and thermocline thickness from the ctd argo float data in the Southern Makassar Strait

The Makassar Strait (MS) is directly connected to the Sulawesi Sea in the north and the Java Sea and the Flores Sea in the south and is the main route of Indonesia Throughflow(ITF). Hence Stratification of water mass in the MS is influenced by the dynamics of these waters. This study aims to describe seasonal variations of the mixed layer depth and the thermocline thickness, identify ITF water masses, and the occurrence of coastal upwelling in the southern part of the MS. The results show that the North Pacific water origin of North Pacific Subtropical Water (NPSW) and North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) are dominant, with a maximum salinity characteristic of 34.6-34.7 psu in the thermocline layer and a minimum salinity of 34.5 psu in the intermediate layer. However, near-surface fresh Java Seawater appears to be dominant during the northwest monsoon (NWM-DJF) period. Seasonal variation of the mixed layer depth is much deeper (93m) and vertical gradient of temperature and salinity are much stronger due to the presence of fresh Java Sea water advected by the eastward Java Monsoon Current. However, during the southeast monsoon (SEM-JJA) period the mixed layer depth is much shallower and the thermocline layer is much thicker (198 m), Associated with much stronger ITF and upwelled colder water from the upwelling area. The coastal upwelling event during the SEM period in the study are is characterized by an increase of isotherm of 25 °C, isohaline of 34.0 psu, and isopycnal of 22.0 kg/m3 from about 75 m depth to the sea surface layer.

Tropical Stratospheric Forcings Weaken the Response of the East Asian Winter Temperature to ENSO

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a critical role in predicting the winter surface temperature over East Asia. Numerous studies have attempted to improve the seasonal forecasting skill in view of the combined effects of ENSO and oceanic–tropospheric factors. However, high uncertainty and notable challenges still exist in using the ENSO to predict the surface temperature. Here, we showed that tropical stratospheric forcings (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO) could disrupt the response of the surface temperature to ENSO. The response of the East Asian surface temperature to El Niño/La Niña events evidently weakened in winter during the westerly/easterly phase of the QBO. This disruption has shown an increasing trend in recent decades, limiting the usefulness of ENSO alone as a seasonal predictor of the surface temperature. The modulation of the QBO on the East Asian surface temperature is achieved mainly by affecting subtropical zonal winds and North Pacific wave activity. Our analyses suggest that the QBO is a nonnegligible predictor in improving seasonal forecasts of the East Asian surface temperature, even comparable to the ENSO.

Distinct Responses of North Pacific and North Atlantic Summertime Subtropical Anticyclones to Global Warming

Abstract The subtropical North Pacific and North Atlantic are controlled by basin-scale anticyclones in boreal summer. Based on a novel metric regarding the strengths of the rotational and the divergent circulation of anticyclones, we investigated the possible future responses in the intensity of these two subtropical anticyclones to global warming. While the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone (NASA) is projected to strengthen, the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone (NPSA) is projected to weaken, in terms of both the rotational and the divergent circulation. The distinct responses of the NPSA and NASA are corroborated by the models participating in the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), under both intermediate and high emission scenarios. We further investigated the possible mechanism for their distinct responses by decomposing the effect of greenhouse gas forcing into the direct effect of increased CO2 concentration and the indirect effect through sea surface temperature (SST). The intensified NASA results from the CO2 direct forcing while the weakened NPSA is dominated by the SST warming. The CO2 direct forcing enhances the NASA by increasing land–ocean thermal contrast anchored by the largest subtropical continental area, the Eurasian–African continent. Both the uniform SST warming and the change in SST pattern act to weaken the NPSA by increasing the latent heating over the subtropical North Pacific basin, as suggested by atmospheric component model simulations. The distinct responses of the NPSA and the NASA may lead to zonal asymmetry of the subtropical climate change.

Disentangling the North Pacific Meridional Mode from tropical Pacific variability

Variations of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the subtropical North Pacific have received considerable attention due to their potential role as a precursor of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the tropical Pacific as well as their role in regional climate impacts. These subtropical SST variations, known as the North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), are thought to be triggered by extratropical atmospheric forcing and amplified by air-sea coupling involving surface winds, evaporation, and SST. The PMM is often defined through a statistical technique called maximum covariance analysis (MCA) that identifies patterns of maximum covariability between SST and surface winds. Here we show that SST alone is sufficient to reproduce the MCA-based PMM index with near-perfect correlation. This dominance of the SST suggests that the MCA-based definition of the PMM may not be ideally suited for capturing two-way wind-SST interaction or, alternatively, that this interaction is relatively weak. We further show that the MCA-based PMM definition conflates intrinsic subtropical and remote ENSO variability, thereby undermining its interpretation as an ENSO precursor. Our findings indicate that, while air-sea coupling may be important for variability in the subtropical North Pacific, it cannot be reliably identified by the MCA-based definition of the PMM. This highlights the need for refined tools to diagnose variability in the subtropical North Pacific.

Single- and multi-year ENSO events controlled by pantropical climate interactions

To better understand the diverse temporal evolutions of observed El Niño‒Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which are characterized as single- or multi-year, this study examines similar events in a 2200-year-long integration of Community Earth System Model, version 1. Results show that selective activation of inter- and intra-basin climate interactions (together, pantropical climate interactions) controls ENSO’s evolution pattern. When ENSO preferentially activates inter-basin interactions with tropical Indian and/or Atlantic Oceans, it introduces negative feedbacks into the ENSO phase, resulting in single-year evolution. When ENSO preferentially activates intra-basin interactions with subtropical North Pacific, it causes positive feedbacks, producing multi-year evolution. Three key factors (developing-season intensity, pre-onset Pacific condition, and maximum zonal location) and their thresholds, which determine whether inter- or intra-basin interactions are activated and whether an event will become a single- or multi-year event, are identified. These findings offer a way to predict ENSO’s evolution pattern by incorporating the controlling role of pantropical climate interactions.

Role of the Climatological North Pacific High in the North Tropical Atlantic–ENSO Connection

Abstract Observational and climate model analysis showed that the anomalous sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic (NTA) in boreal spring can trigger El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the subsequent winter. Similarly, the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are known to reasonably simulate the NTA effect. Nevertheless, the strengths of the NTA effect on ENSO among the climate models are also diverse. In this light, we revisited the possible causes that contributed to the different NTA effects on ENSO in the CMIP5 climate models. We found that the strength of the NTA triggering ENSO in the climate model tended to be proportional to the intensity of the climatological subtropical North Pacific high system in boreal spring. The stronger climatological subtropical North Pacific high accompanied enhanced trade wind, precipitation reduction, and cold sea surface temperature over the subtropics. Under these conditions, the moist static energy feedback process, also known as the moist enthalpy advection mechanism, effectively operated around the Pacific intertropical convergence zone. That is, the NTA-induced signals in the subtropical North Pacific readily intruded into the deep tropical Pacific with the aid of the feedback processes, leading to an ENSO event. Consistent with the CMIP5 analysis results, the observed NTA effect on ENSO became stronger during the decades when the climatological North Pacific subtropical high intensified, underpinning the importance of climatology in the subtropical North Pacific in the NTA–ENSO connection.

Temporal and regional variabilities in the attenuation of sinking particulate organic carbon in the Kuroshio region

The biological pump that transports carbon from the surface ocean to the ocean interior is an important determinant of ocean carbon absorption from the atmosphere, and of biological activity beneath the euphotic zone. Various factors influence the magnitude and efficiency of this biological pump, such as primary production, particle size, and the composition of consumers of particulate organic carbon (POC). The complex factors influencing the biological pump induce high regional and temporal variability; however, the mechanisms of this variability are not understood and its causes remain unclear. The size of sinking particles has been hypothesized to affect the attenuation of POC flux via reduction of residence time within the water column. Here, we conducted sediment trap experiments in slope and subtropical gyre areas along the Kuroshio in the subtropical North Pacific. The ratio of POC flux at a depth 100 m below the base of the euphotic zone to that at the base of the euphotic zone (T100) varied from 0.307 to 0.646 and from 0.090 to 0.958 in the slope and subtropical gyre areas, respectively, and was positively correlated with variations in the volume-weighted mean particle diameter (Spearman rank order correlation coefficient: 0.700, p< 0.05, n = 9). However, the variation in T100 was not correlated with ambient water temperature (p > 0.05). The results support the hypothesis that attenuation of POC flux is influenced by the size of sinking particles in oligotrophic oceanic areas.

Interdecadal Change in the Relationship between the Winter Siberian High and Summer Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific

Interdecadal change in the relationship between the winter Siberian high (SH) and tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) is investigated using observational and reanalysis data. Focus is on the Western North Pacific (WNP) where environmental background associated with TCGF is closely related to the winter SH. It is demonstrated that the relationship presents clear interdecadal change during 1980–2020. A significant negative correlation dominates in the last two decades of the 20th century (P1), but it clearly weakens from the early 2000s onward (P2). Observational evidence shows that such interdecadal change is related dominantly to variations in the air–sea responses associated with the winter SH over the North Pacific. During P1, when the SH is anomalously strengthened, an Aleutian Low (AL) response occurs over the downstream North Pacific, which gradually develops into a meridional dipole distribution pattern consistent with the negative North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) mode during the following spring. The northeasterly wind anomaly over the subtropical North Pacific maintains and further delivers into the tropical Pacific. It favors easterly wind anomaly enhancement over the tropical Pacific around summer and grows into an anticyclonic circulation response in the WNP, which restrains the genesis of TCs. During P2, the eastward shift of the SH anomaly favors a weak AL over the Northeast Pacific followed by a northeastward-shifted anticyclone over the subtropical central-eastern Pacific, which confines the relatively weak northeasterly wind anomalies far away from the tropical Pacific. This was concurrent with a weakening relationship between the SH and WNP TCGF, indicating weaker downstream impacts of the winter SH.

Strengthening Amplitude and Impact of the Pacific Meridional Mode on ENSO in the Warming Climate Depicted by CMIP6 Models

Abstract The Pacific meridional mode (PMM) has been suggested to play an important role in modulating the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we examine the projected changes in the PMM and its impact on ENSO under greenhouse gas forcing using the models of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. These models can properly reproduce the characteristics of PMM patterns but reveal discrepant PMM–ENSO relationships owing to different wind–evaporation–sea surface temperature (SST) (WES) feedback efficiency and different magnitude of atmospheric convection response to SST anomalies. We select the models that show good performance in simulating the PMM and its impact on ENSO for investigation of future projections. Results show potential increases in both PMM amplitude and its impact on ENSO under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 585 (SSP585) warming scenario with great intermodel consensus. Diagnosis of the WES feedback indicates increasing sensitivity of latent heat flux to zonal wind speed in a warming climate, which seems to be the main reason for the projected strengthening PMM and its impact on ENSO. In addition, a slightly intensified response of atmospheric convection to SST anomalies in the subtropical Pacific may partially contribute to a stronger PMM–ENSO relationship. The results from this study highlight the increasing importance of the PMM for ENSO development, which calls for more attention to be paid to the PMM for ENSO prediction. Significance Statement Variability of the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can exert a great impact on global climate. The development of ENSO is partially modulated by the dominant mode of ocean–atmospheric variation in the subtropical North Pacific, namely, the Pacific meridional mode (PMM). This study is aimed to understand the change in the amplitude of the PMM and its impact on ENSO due to climate change. Multimodel projections suggest that the PMM will likely become stronger and exert a greater impact on ENSO since the future warmer climate is favorable for the growth of the PMM. These results call for more attention to be paid to the PMM for ENSO prediction.

Characteristics and Formation of the Luzon Undercurrent in the Western North Pacific: Observational Study

AbstractThe subsurface circulation system in the western North Pacific is dominated by the convergence of the Luzon Undercurrent (LUC) and the Mindanao Undercurrent, which forms the basin‐scale eastward North Equatorial Undercurrent jets. The southward LUC, situated to the east of Luzon Island, plays a significant role in transporting subsurface waters equatorward in the western boundary of the subtropical North Pacific. Despite its crucial contributions to the water, heat, and energy distributions in the subsurface layer, its characteristics and formation mechanism remain unclear. In this study, we utilize monthly climatological temperature and salinity data and the derived geostrophic velocity to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of the LUC and its formation dynamics. The LUC transport exhibits weak seasonality and strong intra‐seasonal variation, peaking in May/June and October. The origin of the LUC is closely connected with the southward veering of the Deep North Equatorial Current (DNEC) off the Ryukyu Islands and the Luzon Strait middle‐layer outflow (LSMO). The DNEC dominates transport in the LUC, and the LSMO of the South China Sea (SCS) Intermediate Water contributes to the water mixing in the LUC. Locally, the appearance of the LUC is dynamically linked with the barotropic effect associated with the sea surface height gradient and the baroclinic effect raised from the downward tilting of the zonal isopycnal off the Philippine coast. Spatially, the core of the LUC shifts from in‐shore to off‐shore waters from May/June to October. This study reveals the spatiotemporal characteristics of the LUC and identifies its separate origins from the interior North Pacific and the SCS middle layer.

Distribution and Production of N2O in the Subtropical Western North Pacific Ocean During the Spring of 2020

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas emitted in significant volumes by the Pacific Ocean. However, the relationship between N2O dynamics and environmental drivers in the subtropical western North Pacific Ocean (STWNPO) remains poorly understood. We investigated the distribution of N2O and its production as well as the related mechanisms at the surface (0–200 m), intermediate (200–1500 m), and deep (1500–5774 m) layers of the STWNPO, which were divided according to the distribution of water masses. We applied the transit time distribution (TTD) method to determine the ventilation times, and to estimate the N2O equilibrium concentration of water parcels last in contact with the atmosphere prior to being ventilated. In the surface layer, biologically derived N2O (ΔN2O) was positively correlated with the apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) (R2 = 0.48), suggesting that surface N2O may be produced by nitrification. In the intermediate layer, ΔN2O was positively correlated with AOU and NO3− (R2 = 0.92 and R2 = 0.91, respectively) and negatively correlated with nitrogen sinks (N*) (R2 = 0.60). Hence, the highest ΔN2O value in the oxygen minimum layer suggested N2O production through nitrification and potential denitrification (up to 51% and 25% of measured N2O, respectively). In contrast, the deep layer exhibited a positive correlation between ΔN2O and AOU (R2 = 0.92), suggesting that the N2O accumulation in this layer may be caused by nitrification. Our results demonstrate that the STWNPO serves as an apparent source of atmospheric N2O (mean air−sea flux 2.0 ± 0.3 μmol m-2 d-1), and that nitrification and potential denitrification may be the primary mechanisms of N2O production in the STWNPO. We predict that ongoing ocean warming, deoxygenation, acidification, and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition in the STWNPO may elevate N2O emissions in the future. Therefore, the results obtained here are important for elucidating the relationships between N2O dynamics and environmental changes in the STWNPO and the global ocean.

Destructive Interference of ENSO on North Pacific SST and North American Precipitation Associated with Aleutian Low Variability

Abstract Identifying the origins of wintertime climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere requires careful attribution of the role of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For example, Aleutian low variability arises from internal atmospheric dynamics and is remotely forced mainly via ENSO. How ENSO modifies the local sea surface temperature (SST) and North American precipitation responses to Aleutian low variability remains unclear, as teasing out the ENSO signal is difficult. This study utilizes carefully designed coupled model experiments to address this issue. In the absence of ENSO, a deeper Aleutian low drives a positive Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)-like SST response. However, unlike the observed PDO pattern, a coherent zonal band of turbulent heat flux–driven warm SST anomalies develops throughout the subtropical North Pacific. Furthermore, non-ENSO Aleutian low variability is associated with a large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern confined over the North Pacific and North America and dry precipitation anomalies across the southeastern United States. When ENSO is included in the forcing of Aleutian low variability in the experiments, the ENSO teleconnection modulates the turbulent heat fluxes and damps the subtropical SST anomalies induced by non-ENSO Aleutian low variability. Inclusion of ENSO forcing results in wet precipitation anomalies across the southeastern United States, unlike when the Aleutian low is driven by non-ENSO sources. Hence, we find that the ENSO teleconnection acts to destructively interfere with the subtropical North Pacific SST and southeastern United States precipitation signals associated with non-ENSO Aleutian low variability.

The Temperature Anomaly Pattern of the Pacific–North American Teleconnection: Growth and Decay

Abstract Applying composite analysis to ERA-Interim data, the surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly pattern of the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection is shown to include both symmetric and asymmetric SAT anomalies with respect to the PNA phase. The symmetric SAT anomalies, overlying the Russian Far East and western and eastern North America, grow through advection of the climatological temperature by the anomalous meridional wind and vertical mixing. The asymmetric SAT anomalies, overlying Siberia during the positive PNA and the subtropical North Pacific during the negative PNA, grow through vertical mixing only. For all SAT anomalies, vertical mixing relocates the temperature anomalies of the PNA teleconnection pattern from higher in the boundary layer downward to the level of the SAT. Above the level of the SAT, temperature anomaly growth is caused by horizontal temperature advection in all locations except for the subtropical North Pacific, where adiabatic cooling dominates. SAT anomaly decay is caused by longwave radiative heating/cooling, except over Siberia, where SAT anomaly decay is caused by vertical mixing. Additionally, temperature anomaly decay higher in the boundary layer due to nonlocal mixing contributes indirectly to SAT anomaly decay by weakening downgradient diffusion. These results highlight a diverse array of mechanisms by which individual anomalies within the PNA pattern grow and decay. Furthermore, with the exception of Siberia, throughout the growth and decay stages, horizontal temperature advection and/or vertical mixing is nearly balanced by longwave radiative heating/cooling, with the former being slightly stronger during the growth stage and the latter during the decay stage.

Insights into aerosol chemical composition and optical properties at Lulin Atmospheric Background Station (2862 m asl) during two contrasting seasons

Continental outflows from peninsular Southeast Asia and East Asia dominate the widespread dispersal of air pollutants over subtropical western North Pacific during spring and autumn, respectively. This study analyses the chemical composition and optical properties of PM10 aerosols during autumn and spring at a representative high-altitude site, viz., Lulin Atmospheric Background Station (23.47°N, 120.87°E; 2862 m a.s.l.), Taiwan. PM10 mass was reconstructed and the contributions of major chemical components were also delineated. Aerosol scattering (σsp) and absorption (σap) coefficients were regressed on mass densities of major chemical components by assuming external mixing between them, and the site-specific mass scattering efficiency (MSE) and mass absorption efficiency (MAE) of individual components for dry conditions were determined. NH4NO3 exhibited the highest MSE among all components during both seasons (8.40 and 12.58 m2 g−1 at 550 nm in autumn and spring, respectively). (NH4)2SO4 and organic matter (OM) accounted for the highest σsp during autumn (51%) and spring (50%), respectively. Mean MAE (mean contribution to σap) of elemental carbon (EC) at 550 nm was 2.51 m2 g−1 (36%) and 7.30 m2 g−1 (61%) in autumn and spring, respectively. Likewise, the mean MAE (mean contribution to σap) of organic carbon (OC) at 550 nm was 0.84 m2 g−1 (64%) and 0.83 m2 g−1 (39%) in autumn and spring, respectively. However, a classification matrix, based on scattering Ångström exponent, absorption Ångström exponent, and single scattering albedo (ω), demonstrated that the composite absorbing aerosols were EC-dominated (with weak absorption; ω = 0.91–0.95) in autumn and a combination of EC-dominated and EC/OC mixture (with moderate absorption; ω = 0.85–0.92) in spring. This study demonstrates a strong link between chemical composition and optical properties of aerosol and provides essential information for model simulations to assess the imbalance in regional radiation budget with better accuracy over the western North Pacific.

A Seesaw Variability in Tropical Cyclone Genesis between the Western North Pacific and the North Atlantic Shaped by Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

AbstractVariabilities in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are commonly interpreted in individual TC basins. We identify an antiphase decadal variation in TC genesis between the western North Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (NA). An inactive (active) WNP TC genesis concurs with an enhanced (suppressed) NA TC genesis. We propose that the transbasin TC connection results from a subtropical east–west “relay” teleconnection triggered by Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), involving a chain atmosphere–ocean interaction in the North Pacific. During a negative AMO phase, the tropical NA cooling suppresses local convective heating that further stimulates a descending low-level anticyclonic circulation in the tropical NA and eastern North Pacific as a Rossby wave response, inhibiting the NA TC genesis. Meanwhile, the anomalous southwesterly to the western flank of the anomalous anticyclonic circulation tends to weaken the surface evaporation and warm the SST over the subtropical eastern North Pacific (southwest–northeast-oriented zone from the tropical central Pacific to the subtropical west coast of North America). The SST warming further sustains a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the WNP by local atmosphere–ocean interaction and the Bjerknes feedback, promoting the WNP TC genesis. This transbasin linkage helps us interpret the moderate amplitude of variations in TC genesis frequency in the Northern Hemisphere.

Possible Impact of Boreal Winter Siberian High on ENSO Development in the Following Year

Siberian High (SH) is the dominant pressure system located in the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during boreal wintertime. This study reveals a triggering impact of SH variation in preceding winter on the following ENSO events, and gives a possible explanation via diagnosing the SH-associated air-sea response over the tropical Pacific and North Pacific. When SH is anomalously enhanced (suppressed) during boreal winter, an Aleutian Low enhanced (suppressed) response will occur over the downstream North Pacific. The Aleutian Low response gradually evolves into a meridional dipole structure similar to the negative (positive) phase of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) during the following spring and early summer. Correspondingly, the oceanic response in the North Pacific features a pattern similar to the negative (positive) phase of the Victoria mode. These SH-associated air-sea responses over the subtropical North Pacific will be maintained and further delivered into the tropical Pacific through the so-called seasonal footprinting mechanism, which favors the Bjerknes feedback established around boreal summer and finally grows into a La Niña (El Niño).

Enhanced Predictability of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific Associated with Snow Depth Changes over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract This study finds an enhanced relationship in recent years between January–March eastern Tibetan Plateau snow depth (TPSD) and the frequency of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (RITCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the following peak TC season (July–November). The correlation between TPSD and RITCs is significant during 2000–14 but was insignificant during 1979–99. During 2000–14, when TPSD increases, there is an enhanced low-level anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical eastern North Pacific mainly due to the combined effect of advection and dynamics of the climatological prevailing westerly jet. Northeasterly wind anomalies are observed on the flank of the anticyclonic circulation anomaly, favoring anomalously cool sea surface temperature (SST). These anomalies lead to an anomalous pattern similar to the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), via a wind–evaporation feedback and cold advection. A Gill-type Rossby response to the PMM-like negative phase results in an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the WNP, suppressing RITCs during 2000–14. A nearly opposite circulation anomaly occurred when TPSD was lower during 2000–14. There is a weak relationship between TPSD and RITCs, due to the lack of a link between TPSD and the PMM-like pattern from 1979 to 1999. Decadal changes in the relationship between TPSD and RITCs are mainly due to the meridional displacement of the prevailing westerly jet, which may be in response to decadal-to-multidecadal variability of SST anomalies. These changes then result in changes in the relationship between January–March TPSD and the PMM-like pattern. Significance Statement Forecasts of tropical cyclone rapid intensification, typically defined to be when a tropical cyclone intensifies by at least 30 knots (∼15 m s−1) in 24 h, remain extremely challenging. This study finds an enhanced relationship since the start of the twenty-first century between winter–spring Tibetan Plateau snow depth and western North Pacific rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, while the relationship between snow depth and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones was weak from 1979 to 1999. Decadal changes in the relationship between Tibetan Plateau snow depth and western North Pacific rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones is mainly due to the north–south displacement of the prevailing westerly jet, which may be in response to a transition in a midlatitude North Pacific climate mode. This study highlights the importance of the synergetic impact of the land, air, and sea on tropical cyclone climate and provides a potential predictor for seasonal-to-decadal prediction of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones.

Boreal Summer Negative Correlation Relationship Between Interannual SST and Precipitation Anomalies in the Tropical and Subtropical Western North Pacific

AbstractWestern North Pacific (WNP) is a key region for ENSO development and its effect on East Asian summer monsoon. Different from most other tropical oceanic areas, sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation anomalies over the WNP are negatively correlated in boreal summer, indicating the ocean is mainly driven by the atmosphere rather than the opposite over there. Two interannual variability modes of such negative correlation relationship are revealed with SVD method, called tropical and subtropical WNP air‐sea coupled modes (WNP‐TCM and WNP‐STCM) in terms of their locations accordingly. Their core regions are both consistent with the near‐zero line of low‐level zonal wind, corresponding to the Northwest Pacific monsoon trough and the west ridge of WNP subtropical high, respectively. In WNP‐TCM, precipitation anomaly is caused by local vorticity anomaly, which is the result of Matsuno‐Gill response to SST anomalies with the reversed signs in central equatorial Pacific and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. In WNP‐STCM, it is produced by local divergence anomaly, which is remotely forced by SST anomalies with the same signs in equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean through anomalous Hadley circulation. SST anomalies in the two modes are both controlled by ocean thermal process, especially the solar radiation anomaly. The key factors determining such unique WNP air‐sea interaction are the weak latent heat flux and horizontal SST advection anomalies, which are both closely related to the near‐zero low‐level zonal wind. In addition, WNP‐TCM often happens in ENSO developing summer whereas WNP‐STCM usually appears in ENSO decaying summer.

Late Holocene Orbital Forcing and Solar Activity on the Kuroshio Current of Subtropical North Pacific at Different Timescales

The North Pacific subtropical gyre (NPSTG) redistributes heat and moisture between low and high latitudes and plays a key role in modulating the global climate change and ecosystem. Recent evidence suggests intensification and poleward shift of the subtropical gyres over the last decades due to global warming, but insufficient observations have hampered insight into the integrated effects of ocean-atmosphere interactions at longer timescales. Here we present the first high-resolution (∼12 years) grain-size record from Core CF1 in the Okinawa Trough, western subtropical North Pacific, to reconstruct the evolution of the western boundary Kuroshio Current (KC) of NPSTG during the Late Holocene. Our results indicate the KC slow-down during 4.6–2.0 ka, followed by quick enhancement after 2.0 ka, with centennial-scale variabilities (500–700 years) superimposed on the long-term trend. Over millennial timescales, gradually increased pole-to-equator thermal gradient, due to orbital forcing mechanisms, resulted in long-term enhanced KC, whereas solar activity triggered phase changes in the tropical Pacific mean state and controlled KC anomalies on centennial timescales. We suggest that both forcing mechanisms resulted in ocean-atmosphere feedback provoking concurrent changes in mid-latitude westerly and subtropical easterly winds over the North Pacific, alternating their dominance as source regions causing the dynamic changes of KC at different timescales. Our findings offer insight into the role of external forcing mechanisms in the NPSTG changes before the Anthropocene, which have profound implications for the deeper understanding of changes in ocean gyres under global warming scenarios.