Substantive Uncertainty Research Articles

Problems and Prospects of Advanced Legal Regulation in the Context of Digitalization Processes

The processes of introducing digital technology into all spheres of human activity actualize the idea of advanced lawmaking, which is currently associated with the possibility of minimizing the risks of digitalization and preventing its threats. At the same time, while not completely new, this idea poses a number of independent problems, each of which should be taken into account when developing doctrinal and legal (strategic) acts aimed to advance the settlement of digitalization processes. The problems include, first, philosophical and ideological validity, second, the lack of proven theoretical and methodological tools for legal forecasting (modeling), third, the substantive uncertainty of legal acts that include advanced legal norms, and fourth, the formal legal difficulties of embedding these cars in the existing system of legislation and the presentation of their contents. Being fair for advanced lawmaking as such, these problems can be considered separately and in detail in the context of digitalization processes.

Uncertainty, fictional expectations and economic agency

Major periods of regulatory, institutional and economic upheaval can have significant impacts on firms. They have to mediate resulting uncertainties, but where such actions are geographically uneven as firms respond in different ways. Actors construct mental representations of a future reality based on existing understandings of a situation, which seeks to influence and guide other actors, termed ‘fictional expectations’ (Beckert, 2016). These issues are important for foreign owned subsidiaries, since they work through intracorporate processes and politics, global production networks, and host regions. The UK’s decision to leave the EU in June 2016 produced significant uncertainties around the final type of trading agreement. This paper examines how foreign subsidiaries in the Southeast of England and Wales mediated these uncertainties, and why particular fictional expectations were created in relation to the corporate contexts of subsidiaries and the nature of regional ‘coupling’. In conclusion, the paper finds that subsidiaries created fictional expectations to acquire devolved responsibility from HQs for mediating Brexit, and to address uncertainties relating to a potential ‘no deal’ and supplier issues. High value creation subsidiaries have greater autonomy and capabilities that facilitate fictional expectations that are able to acquire responsibility for Brexit mediation, and to undertake more substantive uncertainty reduction measures.

Higher‐order evidence and losing one's conviction

AbstractThere has been considerable puzzlement over how to respond to higher‐order evidence. The existing dilemmas can be defused by adopting a ‘two‐dimensional’ representation of doxastic attitudes which incorporates not only substantive uncertainty about which first‐order state of affairs obtains but also the degree of conviction with which we hold the attitude. This makes it possible that in cases of higher‐order evidence the evidence sometimes impacts primarily on our conviction, rather than our substantive uncertainty. I argue that such a two‐dimensional representation is naturally developed by making use of imprecise probabilities.

Оборонне планування на основі спроможностей в Україні: поточний стан і перспективи

The main features and problematic issues of defense planning in Ukraine are considered in the article. Nowadays, in developed countries and in interstate integration alliances, especially in NATO, capability-based defense planning (CBDP) is becoming more widespread. Starting in 2017, this approach to defense planning has started in Ukraine as well. And this is natural, because the irreversibility of the European and Euro-Atlantic course of Ukraine is provided by the preamble of the Constitution of Ukraine. And the approved National Security Strategy of Ukraine declares that in order to strengthen the special partnership with NATO and gain full membership in this organization, Ukraine plans to: achieve in the shortest possible time sufficient compatibility of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other components of the security and defense sector; significantly intensify the reforms that need to be implemented in order to meet the criteria for NATO membership. The implementation of CBDP is one of the components of the relevant reforms.It should be noted that the process of implementation of the CBDP institute in Ukraine is only at the initial stage and is characterized, on the one hand, by significant substantive uncertainty, and on the other – almost complete lack of legal regulation of relations in this important area. Based on the recognition of the chronological primacy of the first over the second, the task of eliminating substantive uncertainty is a priority for further research. Subject to its resolution, the relevant results should be enshrined in a special legislative act on defense planning, and the mechanisms for implementing the basic legislative requirements – in the bylaws, including those that will be approved by the Ministry of Defense and registered with the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine.

Music as a subject of discussion in A.F. Losev’s philosophical prose

This article focuses on Alexei Losev’s literary texts that embrace his mythology of music: “I was 19 years old,” “A meteor,” “A woman-thinker,” “The Tchaikovsky trio,” and “An encounter.” It is shown that Losev’s musical mythology developed from his early musical-critical works—through the artistic-mythological episodes of his philosophical works per se (the fragment “Musical myth” from the treatise “Music as a subject of logic”)—to his fiction of the 1930s. Losev’s intentionally abstract philosophy of music required to be complemented by the artistic, emotional, socially and historically specific expression. The main idea of Losev’s musical myth in its historical-cultural aspect is to reflect the relevant self-consciousness of an individual. The epoch of religious super-individualism and “prayerful delight” is replaced by the epoch of “musical delight” and professed idealization of an individual. This change was a reason of the extreme ambivalence of music, which, on the one hand, expresses the highest order and harmony and, on the other, is a continuous evolvement and chaos, a substantive uncertainty. The novelty of the article consists, firstly, in the analysis of correspondence between musical ambivalence and drama in the lives of the heroes, especially heroines symbolizing music itself; and secondly, in identifying the constant features of Losev’s musical myth, as well as its specific features that emerge at different stages.

Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance

ABSTRACTGoverning complex environmental issues involves intensive interaction between public and private actors. These governance processes are fraught with uncertainties about, for example, the current state of environmental affairs, the relevant set of decision alternatives, the reactions of other actors to proposed solutions or the future developments likely to affect an issue. Uncertainty comes in different shapes and sizes and different strands in the literature, which has placed emphasis either on the substance of the issue (e.g. in environmental sciences) or on the decision-making process (e.g. policy sciences). In this paper, we bring together these different strands of literature on uncertainty to present a novel analytical framework. We build on the argument that the nature of uncertainty consists of three types: epistemic uncertainty (involving the lack of knowledge about a particular system), ontological uncertainty (irreducible unpredictability due to inherently complex system behavior) and ambiguity (conflicts between fundamentally different frames about the issue at hand). Scholars have also argued the importance of differentiating between three different objects of uncertainty: substantive uncertainty (uncertainty about the content of decisions or policy issues), strategic uncertainty (uncertainty about the actions of other actors in the strategic game of decision-making) and institutional uncertainty (uncertainty about the rules of the game in decision-making). The framework is useful for analyzing and addressing the nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making. Better understanding of the range of uncertainties is crucial to design more robust policies and governance arrangements and to deal with wicked environmental problems.

Будущее как объект философско-педагогического осмысления

<p>В статье будущее показано как гносеологически уникальное в своей содержательной неопределенности понятие, изначально увязываемое с неостановимой текучестью времени. Будущее связывается с развитием образования и освобождением его от допущенных ошибок. В современных условиях на первый план выходит готовность личности к гражданской и творческой самореализации. В этой связи в статье ставится вопрос о прогнозировании в сфере образования.</p>

Tackling wicked problems and tricky transitions: change and continuity in Cape Town's environmental policy landscape

This paper offers a reflection on 15 years of policy change in the City of Cape Town aimed at fostering sustainability from the perspective of a City practitioner. The persistent continuation of unsustainable outcomes, despite ongoing policy reforms, is understood as a combination of the emergence of wicked problems, within a changing local government mandate, in the absence of a transformation of institutional structures, tools and approaches. While the approach to policy reform in Cape Town has focussed on reducing substantive uncertainty through its knowledge-based approach, we show that in the context of an expanding local government mandate, sustainability becomes an aspect of many departments’ directive resulting in strategic uncertainty. The untransformed traditional line-function-based structure of local government in turn works against integration between departments (fundamental for addressing non-linear wicked problems), thus promoting institutional uncertainty. In addressing this combination of strategic and institutional uncertainty, our findings indicate that integration has to happen in the policy stage in order for sustainability principles to be implemented in relevant departments; that implementation requires resourcing across the institution, and ought to be included in departments’ targets; and that competing and conflicting rationalities underpin the policy–practice gap. It is suggested that a first step in breaking down the strategic and institutional uncertainties would be to foster shared values through creating deliberative spaces within the City in which debate, discussion and learning can occur.

Strategies for managing complex social-ecological systems in the face of uncertainty: examples from South Africa and beyond

Improving our ability to manage complex, rapidly changing social-ecological systems is one of the defining challenges of the 21st century. This is particularly crucial if large-scale poverty alleviation is to be secured without undermining the capacity of the environment to support future generations. To address this challenge, strategies that enable judicious management of socialecological systems in the face of substantive uncertainty are needed. Several such strategies are emerging from the developing body of work on complexity and resilience. We identify and discuss four strategies, providing practical examples of how each strategy has been applied in innovative ways to manage turbulent social-ecological change in South Africa and the broader region: (1) employ adaptive management or comanagement, (2) engage and integrate different perspectives, (3) facilitate self-organization, and (4) set safe boundaries to avoid system thresholds. Through these examples we aim to contribute a basis for further theoretical development, new teaching examples, and inspiration for developing innovative new management strategies in other regions that can help address the considerable sustainability challenges facing society globally.

An Empirical Analysis of Stakeholders’ Influence on Policy Development: the Role of Uncertainty Handling

Bijlsma, R. M., P. W. G. Bots, H. A. Wolters, and A. Y. Hoekstra. 2011. An empirical analysis of stakeholders’ influence on policy development: the role of uncertainty handling. Ecology and Society 16(1): 51. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-03865-160151

Uncertainty and Learning in Stochastic Macro Models

Limits on information have deep economic impact and affect the conduct of economic policy. In the present paper we explore the effect of substantive uncertainty in a macro model, from both an analytical and methodological point of view. Agents are boundedly rational and make their forecasts according to different techniques and try to learn the values of the various parameters. In this context, a Markov regime switching rule, a VAR system, and recursive least square are considered and compared. As a result, we obtain a model which is mostly keynesian in nature that can be compared with the new neoclassical synthesis models. Simulations are carried out and show the possible appearence of endogenous and persistent fluctuations.

South Africa: conceptualising a politics of human‐oriented development

This article reflects on what needs to be done for a human‐oriented development agenda in South Africa? It investigates the broader structural political condition, especially the configuration of power, under which human‐oriented development occurs. It does this by first analysing the diverse academic literature on democracy and development with a view to drawing out the political lessons from comparative development experiences. These are then applied to South Africa through an engagement with its academic, policy and organisational literature so as to determine how best to establish the political condition for a human‐oriented development trajectory. Finally, the article concludes by both drawing together the various threads of the analysis and reflecting on the political implications of the succession dispute. Its overall conclusion is that not only is human‐oriented development a product of a political process, but it also requires an intricate mix of representative and participatory democratic elements. This mix of representative and participatory democratic elements is meant to create a substantive uncertainty, which is the political foundation that generates the accountability between elites and their citizens so necessary for realising a human‐oriented development agenda. The political programme recommended then challenges the perspectives of those who view participatory and representative democracy as distinct political systems. The perspective advanced here suggests that it is the intricate mix of participatory and representative elements that enhances the accountability of political elites to their citizens.

Dealing With Uncertainties When Governing CSR Policies

As corporate social responsibility involves a voluntary business endeavour to address social and environmental issues beyond legal compliance, governments cannot fall back on hierarchical command-and-control policies to support it. As such, it is complementary with the increasing popularity of public policies known as New Governance policies, where the government is engaged in a horizontal inter-organizational network of societal actors and where public policy is both formed and executed by the interacting and voluntary efforts from a multitude of stakeholders. However, such policies are known to generate substantive uncertainty about the content of CSR and its related issues, strategic uncertainty regarding the behavior of the actors involved and institutional uncertainty related to the interaction process involved in the institutional change. We explore New Governance policy instruments to address these uncertainties in the context CSR and discuss the experiences with these methods in the European Union.

The new institutional economics and the theory of behaviour under uncertainty

The new institutional economics (NIE) is diverse in terms of the theory of behaviour under uncertainty. Some views are close to neoclassical economics, but others are similar to those held by heterodox economists. Distinctions between procedural and substantive uncertainty, weak and strong uncertainty and ambiguity and fundamental uncertainty help to identify different approaches to uncertainty in NIE. Regarding the influence of institutions on economics behaviour, not all NIE focuses on institutions as constraints and takes individuals as given. The dominant views of rationality in NIE are standard neoclassical maximization and bounded rationality, but alternative notions have also been defended.

The politics of economic policy-making: substantive uncertainty, political leverage, and human development

The politics of economic policy-making: substantive uncertainty, political leverage, and human development

The Comparative Study of Electoral Governance—Introduction

Electoral governance is a crucial variable in securing the credibility of elections in emerging democracies, but remains largely ignored in the comparative study of democratization. This article develops some basic analytical tools to advance comparative analysis and understanding of this neglected topic. It conceptualizes electoral governance as a set of related activities that involves rule making, rule application, and rule adjudication. It identifies the provision of procedural certainty to secure the substantive uncertainty of democratic elections as the principal task of electoral governance. It argues that electoral governance, while socially and institutionally embedded, matters most during the indeterminate conditions that typically attend democratization. Finally, it outlines a research agenda that covers the comparative study of the structures as well as the processes of electoral governance.

Mouse—A Computerized Uncertainty Analysis System

Calculations involving uncertainties are far beyond the capabilities of conventional analysis for any but the simplest of waste management models. There exist a number of general-purpose simulation languages, using Monte Carlo methods, that are capable of such analysis, but these languages are difficult to learn and to implement quickly. MOUSE (an acronym for Modular Oriented Uncertainty SystEm) deals with the problem of uncertainties in waste management models that consist of one or more algebraic equations. The MOUSE system writes a FORTRAN program which, when the user's model is added, is ready to be compiled and executed. It was especially designed for use by those with little or no knowledge of computer languages, programming or simulation. It is designed to be run on almost any personal computer and has all of the features needed for substantive uncertainty analysis (built-in probability distributions, plotting and graphing capabilities, sensitivity analysis, interest functions for cost analyses, etc.). A series of unique companion utility programs help in analyzing sample data to determine the probability distributions that best fit that data, check each program for errors in syntax, and assist in finding logical errors in the waste management model. Some typical examples of the use of MOUSE within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency include: studying the migration of pollution plumes in streams, establishing regulations for hazardous wastes in landfills, and estimating pollution control costs.