Subsidence Warming Research Articles

Statistical analysis of the relationships between boundary layer meteorological processes and nocturnal O3 increases in Beijing from 2018 to 2022

In the absence of photochemical reactions, nocturnal ozone (O3) variation was found to be caused by boundary layer meteorological processes. In addition to low-level jet (LLJ) and convective storm (CS) events, cold front and foehn processes also cause nocturnal O3 increases (NOIs). The subsidence warming effect (Subsi.) caused by weak cold front and foehn processes cause the nocturnal surface temperature and O3 to increase. Statistical analysis revealed that NOI days accounted for 39.4 ± 6.4% of the total number of days per year in Beijing, and the average occurrence frequency decreased by 1.7%/year over a recent five-year period (2018–2022). The LLJ process is the primary factor causing NOIs, and the average annual contributions of the LLJ, CS and Subsi. processes to NOIs were approximately 32.2 ± 10.5%, 11.7 ± 2.3% and 8.0 ± 3.0%, respectively. From a seasonal point of view, the most NOI events occurred in summer, and the least occurred in autumn. LLJs contributed the most to the NOIs in each season, and the CS contribution was almost equal to that of LLJs in summer. LLJs that occurred near 00:00 LT and 04:00 LT had a greater probability of causing NOI events. Most of the nocturnal CS events occurred during 22:00 LT-02:00 LT (next day), and the contribution of CSs to NOIs fluctuated around 10.0%. More than half (68.0%) of the Subsi. events occurred during 23:00 LT-03:00 LT (next day). Subsi. events occurred during this period contributed more to NOIs than other periods. Meteorological processes more easily caused NOI events in the urban, Daxing and Tongzhou districts than other areas. The average surface O3 concentration during the early morning hours (04:00–06:00 LT) on NOI days was 8.8 ± 3.2 μg/m3 higher than that on non-NOI days, suggesting that NOIs can elevate the base O3 concentration during the following day.

The Impact of High-Density Airborne Observations and Atmospheric Motion Vector Observation Assimilation on the Prediction of Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Matthew (2016)

Tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) prediction still remains a big international challenge in numerical weather prediction. Hurricane Matthew (2016) underwent extreme and non-classic RI, intensifying from a Category 1 storm to a Category 5 hurricane within 24 h under a strong vertical shear environment. However, most models failed to capture this RI, and limited or no inner core, and outflow observations were assimilated in the NWS operational HWRF Model before the onset of RI for Matthew (2016). The goals of the study are to (1) explore the best way to assimilate the High-Density Observations (HDOB, including FL and SFMR) and AMV data; (2) study the impact of assimilating these observations on the analysis of both the inner-core and outflow structures; and (3) examine the impact of assimilating these data on the prediction of RI for Matthew. The main results are as follows: (1) With proper pre-processing of the HDOB observations and by using a 4DEnVar method, the inner-core structure analysis was improved. And the RI prediction is more consistent with the best track without spin-down for the first 24 h. Assimilating CIMMS AMV observations on top of the HDOB observations further improves both the track and intensity forecasts. Specifically, both the magnitude and timing of the peak intensity are further improved. (2) Diagnostics are conducted to understand how the assimilation of these different types of observations impacts RI prediction. Without assimilating HODB and AMV data, baseline experimentover-predict the intensification rate during the first 18 h, but under-predict RI after 18 h. However, the assimilation of FL and SFMR and CIMMS AMV correctly weakens the upper-level outflow and improves the shear-relative structure of the inner-core vortex, such as reducing the low-level moisture in the downshear left quadrant. The deep convection on the downshear side is weaker than baseline for the first 18 h but keeps enhancing, later moving cyclonically to the USL quadrant, and then causes more subsidence warming, maximizing in the USL quadrant and the maximum wind increases faster. Moreover, the rapid intensification rate is much more consistent with the best track and the forecast skill of RI is improved. Therefore, 4DEnVar assimilation with proper pre-processing of the high-density observations can indeed correct the shear-relative moisture and structural distributions of both the inner core and environment for TCs imbedded in the stronger shear, which is important for shear-TC RI prediction.

Effects of Orography on the High-Temperature Event on 22 June 2023 in North China

An extreme high-temperature event occurred in North China on 22 June 2023, with the maximum temperature reaching 41.8 °C. The high-temperature centers preferentially occurred at the foothills of the Taihang and Yanshan Mountains, indicating an important role of the underlying orography. In the present work, we study the orographic effects of this extreme high-temperature event according to high-resolution numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The results show that the presence of the mountains in North China contributed notably to the high-temperature event, which can enhance the 2 m air temperature by up to 3 °C. In the daytime, the enhancement of temperature is primarily due to the diabatic heating of sensible heat flux at the terrain surface caused by solar shortwave radiation, whereas the well-known foehn effect has little contribution. Indeed, the dynamically forced downslope flow of foehn is totally suppressed by the upslope flow of the thermally driven mountain-plain circulation. In the nighttime, the sensible heat flux at the terrain surface changes to weakly negative, given the cooling of land surface longwave radiation. As a result, the enhancement of near-surface temperature at the terrain foothill is dominated by the adiabatic warming of downslope flow. Yet, the near-surface temperature far away from the mountain is enhanced by the subsidence warming of a synoptic anomalous anti-cyclone, which is induced by the diabatic heating over the mountains in the daytime. These findings help improve the understanding of the thermal and dynamical effects of orography on the occurrence of high-temperature events.

Doppler LiDAR Observation of Subsidence in Synoptic Scale and Performance of a Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model in Capturing the Subsidence

The vertical velocity data from a Doppler LiDAR situated at the centre of Hong Kong were examined to look for signature of subsidence within the atmospheric boundary layer against a synoptic background. Two case studies were performed, namely, stable atmospheric conditions in foggy weather and possible “subsidence heating” at the periphery of the outer circulation of an intense tropical cyclone. The LiDAR’s Doppler velocity data were found to provide insights into the vertical motion of the air on the synoptic scale. They appear to confirm subsidence in foggy weather but provide new information about the mechanism for the occurrence of extremely hot weather. The data were also compared with vertical velocity forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model to assess the quality of the forecast. The Doppler LiDAR’s vertical velocity data were found to be useful in the verification of omega forecasts from the global numerical weather prediction model. They were found to provide further insights into the subsidence of the troposphere, particularly the atmospheric boundary layer, in certain synoptic patterns.

Subseasonal Variation Characteristics of Low-Cloud Fraction in Southeastern and Northwestern North Pacific

The subseasonal variability of the low-cloud fraction (LCF) over the southeastern North Pacific (SENP) and northwestern North Pacific (NWNP) was studied using satellite observations and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis. It is found that subseasonal variability of the LCF was closely related to variations in the estimated inversion strength (EIS), sea surface wind speed (SSW), sensible heat flux (SHF), sea surface temperature (SST), surface temperature advection (Tadv), relative humidity (RH), surface level pressure (SLP) and surface air temperature (SAT). An increase in the LCF over the SENP is associated with the development of an anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which is located on the west coast of America. The cold advection, together with the subsidence warming associated with the anticyclonic circulation, strengthens the temperature inversion, favoring the development of the LCF. In the NWNP, the maximum LCF anomaly was also correlated with the stable boundary layer. The southerly wind blows airflow over the Kuroshio Extension from the subtropics, which brings warm and moist air. When air flows to the colder sea surface, it is cooled and condensed by the intensified heat exchange. A lead-lag composite analysis indicates that the mechanisms are different between the SENP and the NWNP, possibly due to the different types of low-level clouds over these two regions. In the SENP, the trade cumulus dominates under a strong capping inversion over the subtropics, whereas fog and stratus often occur under a shallow capping inversion in the NWNP. The effects of atmospheric circulation are also discussed.

The effects of coastal local circulations and their interactions on ozone pollution in the Hangzhou metropolitan area

Impacts of coastal local circulations and their interactions on ozone (O3) in Hangzhou on 5 June 2018 with relatively low temperatures were investigated using surface observations and three-dimensional air quality simulations. Local circulations and their interactions were primary causes of the episode instead of high temperatures. Northwesterly land breeze on the previous day transported O3 to sea, and sea breeze (SB) on the episode day blew pollution back to land. Inland penetration (east to west) of the combined SB front (SBF) was accelerated by urban heat island (UHI) induced easterly flow over coast and slowed by its westerly flow and surface roughness over inland urban areas. O3 accumulation at surface and in the elevated air over city was caused by mountain barrier effect and venting process. Subsidence heating associated with valley circulation accelerated UHI circulation (UHIC) before 1400 LT, indirectly strengthening the SB circulation (SBC). The UHIC and valley circulation decoupled with SBC at noon and in the late afternoon, respectively, leading to a stronger SBC. The stronger SBC brought additional O3 (>20 ppb) to further inland area, to elevated air with updrafts in SB head, and to nocturnal stable boundary layer and residual layer with its upper-level offshore flow.

The substantial role of May soil temperature over Central Asia for summer surface air temperature variation and prediction over Northeastern China

The slowly varying soil temperature can exert local and nonlocal influences on regional climate system, and may thus provide a critical source of subseasonal-to-seasonal climate prediction. In this study, we identify that soil temperature in May over the key region of Central Asia (42 °N–50 °N, 62 °E–80°E, KRCA) from Noah, Mosaic, CLM and ERA-interim datasets is closely linked to variations of the surface air temperature, daily maximum temperature and hot days over Northeastern China in summer (June–July–August), with correlation coefficients of regional average detrended time series ranging from 0.42 to 0.54, and all significant at the 99% confidence level for the period of 1979–2018. The possible physical mechanism behind the substantial downstream impacts of soil temperature over Central Asia are explored via diagnostical analysis combined with regional climate model experiments. Warmer soil temperature in May over the KRCA can keep to the summer and cause positive anomalies of geopotential height in summer over Northeastern China through the Rossby wave propagation, and associated stronger subsidence warming, less cloud cover, more solar radiation reaching the surface, higher planetary boundary layer, and stronger thermal advection at 850 hPa, which provide favorable conditions for warmer surface air temperature particularly in the daytime as well as more hot days. This study further reveals that soil temperature over Central Asia in May makes important contribution to prediction of summer surface air temperature, daily maximum temperature and hot days over Northeastern China in terms of regional average time series and spatial patterns. Our findings highlight the previously-unknown substantial role of antecedent soil temperature condition over Central Asia for summer surface air temperature variation and prediction over Northeastern China.

Heavy pollution incidents in the context of “low emission” in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei around the Chinese New Year of 2020

<p indent="0mm">Persistent air pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTH) has become an extremely complex challenge due to the combined effects of industrial structure, regional characteristics, weather and climate, and development. Although China’s air pollution levels have reduced significantly since the <italic>Airborne Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan</italic> and the <italic>Blue Sky Protection Campaign</italic> were implemented, the BTH remains a sensitive and vulnerable area. Such large decrease in primary pollution was mainly attributed to the substantial reductions in economic activities and associated emissions during the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown, i.e., around the Chinese New Year of 2020. Yet two consecutive severely polluting weather processes occurred in the BTH around the Chinese New Year of 2020, which have seeded doubt among the Chinese public and policymakers regarding the current scientific understanding of the mechanisms of haze pollution. The causes of formation and maintenance of pollution processes can differ significantly. The formation and maintenance of heavy pollution weather is caused by various factors, which is a complex process. Thus, it is crucial to distinguish the contribution of emissions and meteorological conditions on polluting weather, as well as distinguish the contribution of various meteorological factors on the formation and maintenance of polluting weather, for conducting effective attribution diagnostic analysis in actually environmental and meteorological impact assessment operation systems, especially in areas that are sensitive or vulnerable to air pollution. Identifying the specific meteorological conditions formed by polluting weather and establishing a comprehensive model for discriminating atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics can provide a scientific basis for improving numerical models for air pollution potential forecasting in the future. Therefore, in this study, we focused on two consecutive severely polluting weather processes in BTH around the 2020 Chinese New Year (January to February 2020), as an ideal and unique field experiment for the prevention and control of current severe air pollution. We explored the reasons for the formation and maintenance of continuous severely polluting weather in the context of “continuous emissions reduction” and “relatively low social activity levels” from the perspective of the abnormal structure of the high–low atmospheric circulation system. Based on comprehensive diagnostic analyses, we quantified the relative contribution of each key meteorological factor to the continuous severely polluting weather in BTH by using the standardized multiple linear regression method. The results indicated that stable maintenance of low-level coastal high-pressure systems led to higher relative humidity at ground level compared with normal years and blocking systems, which are two key meteorological factors that induced persistent polluting weather in BTH. The abnormally stable blocking situation provided a special circulation background for the occurrence and maintenance of persistent heavy air pollution in BTH. The continuous and stable easterly and southerly water vapor transportation structure provided the BTH with more moisture than normal years, and it was conducive to increased moisture absorption by aerosols, especially under blocking. The “subsidence warming” effect of the high-level blocking high-pressure system facilitated the production of a “warm cover” structure in the middle of the troposphere. The presence of the anomalous warm cover structure in the troposphere facilitated the establishment of stable and high humidity weather, which was conducive to the accumulation of pollutants and continued air pollution. Dynamic systems (blocking systems) and water vapor transportation factors directly explained 46.8% of the meteorological causes of persistent heavy air polluting weather events around the 2020 Chinese New Year in BTH.

Subsidence Warming in the Tropical Cyclogenesis of Cindy (2017): CPEX Observations and Coupled Modeling

AbstractThe formation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in unfavorable large-scale environments remains a challenge for TC forecasting. Tropical Storm (TS) Cindy (2017) formed at 1800 UTC 20 June 2017 in the Gulf of Mexico despite strong vertical wind shear, low midtropospheric relative humidity, and poorly organized convection. A key to TC genesis is the initial development of a warm core within an emergent cyclonic vortex, a process that occurs on small spatial scales and is often difficult to observe. TS Cindy was observed during the Convective Processes Experiment (CPEX) field campaign in 2017 by the NASA DC-8 aircraft, equipped with a Doppler wind lidar, precipitation radar, and GPS dropsondes. This study combines CPEX observations and a cloud-resolving, fully coupled atmosphere–wave–ocean numerical simulation to investigate the formation of TS Cindy. Prior to TC genesis, a shallow cyclonic circulation was embedded in a deep layer of west-southwesterly flow associated with an upper-level trough. Within the disturbance, a warm and dry anomaly was observed by dropsondes near the center of the cyclonic circulation, with a maximum at about the 2.5-km level. In the coupled model simulation, the temperature perturbation reached 5°C along with a dewpoint temperature depression of 8°C. Backward trajectory analysis shows that subsidence is primarily associated with a thermally indirect circulation along the western flank of the storm. Air parcels descend more than 1000 m toward the lower troposphere while warming up by 9°–12°C. The subsidence-induced virtual temperature perturbation in the 1.5–3.5-km layer accounts for 50% of the sea level pressure depression. Subsidence warming, therefore, played a key role in the genesis of TS Cindy.

Intensification and Maintenance of a Double Warm-Core Structure in Typhoon Lan (2017) Simulated by a Cloud-Resolving Model

AbstractKnowledge of the development and maintenance processes of double warm cores in tropical cyclones is important for full understanding of the dynamics of storm intensity changes. During its mature stage, Typhoon Lan (2017) had a clear double warm-core structure, which was observed by dropsondes. In this study, to investigate the intensification and maintenance of the double warm-core structure, a numerical simulation of the storm is performed with a cloud-resolving model and verified by dropsonde and satellite observations. A potential temperature budget and backward trajectories are diagnosed to examine intensification and maintenance processes in the simulated eye. The budget analysis indicates that, during the most rapidly intensifying stage, a double warm core is enhanced by axisymmetric subsidence warming in the eye. In the mature stage, upper-core warming is mostly canceled by ventilation due to vertical wind shear, but the lower core continues to warm by asymmetric advection, possibly associated with dynamical instability in the eyewall. The results raise a topic of interest: it is difficult to fully explain the axisymmetric subsidence warming process during the most rapidly intensifying stage by the dynamical response in an axisymmetric balanced vortex. The back-trajectory analysis indicates that the air mass associated with the subsidence is partly induced by inward acceleration in subgradient regions (unbalanced processes) in the eyewall.

Formation mechanism of a severe air pollution event: A case study in the Sichuan Basin, Southwest China

The formation mechanism of air pollution events in the Sichuan Basin (SB), which is the fourth most heavily polluted area in China, has not been fully revealed. This study investigated the formation mechanism of a severe air pollution event over the SB using synoptic approaches and model simulations. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) Heavy air pollution in the SB was characterized by low visibility, low atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height, high temperature, high relative humidity, strong temperature inversion layer, subsidence in the troposphere, high water vapor content between 500 and 900 hPa, southerly winds in the low troposphere, and surface winds with low speed and irregular direction. (2) Air quality in the SB was closely related to the weather system at 700 hPa over the basin. When the 700 hPa weather system affecting the SB was a high-pressure system, the subsidence and stable atmospheric stratification increased the air pollutant concentrations near the ground. When the 700 hPa weather system affecting the SB was a low-pressure system and the basin was in front of this low-pressure system, southwesterly warm and moist airflow and adiabatic subsidence warming formed the thick temperature inversion layer over the basin. As a result, the temperature inversion layer trapped air pollutants in the basin and induced the heavy air pollution event. When the 700 hPa weather system over the SB was a low-pressure system and the basin was behind the low-pressure system, the dry and cold airflow from the north invaded southward to the basin and broke the temperature inversion layer. Consequently, air pollutants dispersed vertically, resulting in decreased concentrations near the ground. (3) Air pollutants from December 17, 2017 to January 4, 2018 were mainly from local emissions. (4) The WRF-Chem model not only reproduced the variations in PM2.5 concentrations, the ABL height, and the height-time cross-sections of temperature, water vapor content, and wind over Chengdu during the air pollution event, but also revealed the formation mechanism of this heavy air pollution event. The results of this study reveal the formation mechanism of winter heavy air pollution events over the SB and help develop effective regional air quality management strategies to reduce the likelihood of local air pollution events and minimize the adverse impacts of air pollution.

Vertical Temperature Structure Associated with Evaporation of Stratiform Precipitation in Idealized WRF Simulations

AbstractA recent study based on observations has shown that after precipitation over tropical oceans rather shallow temperature structures occur in the lower troposphere and that their magnitude depends on climatological low- to midtropospheric humidity. As any process that produces temperature perturbations in the lower troposphere can be of great significance for the formation of atmospheric deep convection, the vertical temperature structure associated with evaporation of stratiform precipitation and its sensitivity to low- to midtropospheric humidity are studied by conducting three-dimensional, high-resolution, idealized simulations with the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. In the simulations, rainwater with mixing ratio and number concentration characteristic of stratiform precipitation associated with mesoscale convective systems is added in a large round area at roughly 560 hPa. Evaporative cooling and subsidence warming below result in a cold anomaly at roughly 560–750 hPa and, especially, a warm anomaly at roughly 750–900 hPa. The cold-over-warm anomalies are stronger with smaller low- to midtropospheric relative humidity in the initial conditions, with the maximum magnitude of the warm anomaly ranging between 0.7 and 1.2 K. The temperature anomalies propagate to the environment and still remain present after precipitation stops. The results show that evaporation of stratiform precipitation alone can lead to temperature structures, which are on the same order of magnitude as the observed ones, that potentially inhibit subsequent convection by increasing convective inhibition. Therefore, the representation of microphysical processes affecting the location, amount, and vertical and horizontal distribution of stratiform precipitation and its evaporation in numerical models requires special attention.

Observed heatwave changes in arid northwest China: Physical mechanism and long-term trend

Arid regions suffer seriously from frequent and severe heatwaves. As compared to other regions, however, the synoptic-scale characteristics and mechanism of heatwave events in arid region are less understood and warrant in-depth investigations. Using observational and reanalysis datasets, here we investigate the heatwave behaviors in arid northwest China (ANC) during 1961–2014. Results reveal that heatwaves in ANC are accompanied by a hot and dry air column. In particular, the main synoptic systems are characterized by a warm-core low pressure in the lower troposphere and a deep warm high pressure in the middle and upper troposphere over the ANC and nearby regions, resulting in the heatwaves there. In the lower troposphere, the prevailing southerly flow induced by the warm-core low pressure increases the near-surface air temperature via warm advection. In the middle and upper troposphere, the deep warm high pressure is accompanied by sinking motion over the ANC surrounding region, leading to clear-sky conditions and less precipitation. These pressure configurations facilitate temperature increases by radiative heating and subsidence warming. Notably, the deep warm high pressure is closely associated with the evolution and eastward movement of a wave-like pattern over the northern midlatitudes. Over the long-term period, the heatwave in ANC exhibits significant intensifying trends in terms of increasing frequency (0.40 events decade−1), prolonging duration (1.67 days decade−1), and strengthening amplitude (0.32 °C decade−1). Also, we find that heatwaves in ANC tend to commence earlier and end later during recent decades. These findings provide scientific evidence from the synoptic and climatic perspectives for understanding the formation mechanism and forecasting of the heatwaves in arid regions.

On the analysis of ground-based microwave radiometer data during fog conditions

Abstract The goal of this study is twofold. First, we verify the retrievals of temperature and humidity profiles from a ground-based microwave radiometer (MWR) using radiosonde soundings. Second, we assess the potential of the MWR to nowcast fog formation and dissipation in a hyper-arid environment through the analysis of its profiles. The MWR is installed and operated at Masdar Institute in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE), adjacent to Abu Dhabi's International Airport. MWR observations collected from 18 February 2017 to 31 March 2019. A comparison with airport radiosonde data reveals a good agreement in particular for temperature, with the two measurements generally within 1 K from the surface to 10 km. For the specific humidity, the biases can reach 5 g kg−1 in the PBL. Biases can be attributed to errors in the radiosonde measurements and a non-optimized retrieval algorithm for the MWR. A total of 14 fog events are identified during the study period. A strong near-surface inversion with lapse rates in the lowest 250 m of up to 30 K km−1 is needed for fog to form. Subsidence warming and drying associated with the subtropical anticyclone can descend down to 500 m, aiding the formation of fog at night. Cloud base height retrievals from the infrared (IR) camera capture fog onset and dissipation and complement the MWR observations. A synergy of different instruments could allow for more accurate fog detection.

Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming.

We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979–2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998–2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and back‐trajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes. Relationships during opposite conditions of warm Europe/cold Arctic are also significant. Correlations have become consistently stronger since 1998. Large‐scale pattern analysis reveals that cold spells are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO‐) and the positive phase of the Scandinavian (SCA+) pattern, which in turn are correlated with the divergence of dry‐static energy transport. Warm European extremes are associated with opposite phases of these patterns and the convergence of latent heat transport. Airmass trajectory analysis is consistent with these findings, as airmasses associated with extreme cold events typically originate over continents, while warm events tend to occur with prevailing maritime airmasses. Despite Arctic‐wide warming, significant cooling has occurred in northeastern Europe owing to a decrease in adiabatic subsidence heating in airmasses arriving from the southeast, along with increased occurrence of circulation patterns favouring low temperature advection. These dynamic effects dominated over the increased mean temperature of most circulation patterns. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SCA‐ and NAO+ are typically preceded by cold Arctic anomalies during the previous 2–3 months, which may aid seasonal forecasting.

Evolution of the Warm-Core Structure during the Eyewall Replacement Cycle in a Numerically Simulated Tropical Cyclone

Abstract This study examines the evolution of the warm-core structure during the secondary eyewall formation (SEF) and the subsequent eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) in a numerically simulated tropical cyclone (TC) under idealized conditions. Results show that prior to the SEF, the TC exhibited a double warm-core structure centered in the middle and upper troposphere in the eye region, and as the storm intensified with a rapid outward expansion of tangential winds, the warm core strengthened and a secondary off-center warm ring developed between 8- and 16-km heights near the outer edge of the eye. During the SEF, both the upper-level warm core and the secondary off-center warm ring rapidly strengthened. As the secondary eyewall intensified and contracted and the primary eyewall weakened and dissipated, the off-center warm ring extended inward and merged with the inner warm core to form a warm core typical of a single-eyewall TC. Results from the azimuthal-mean potential temperature budget indicate that the warming in the eye is due to subsidence and the warming above 14-km height outside the eye is largely contributed by radial warm advection in the outflow. The development of the off-center warm ring is largely due to the subsidence warming near the inner edge of the primary eyewall and in the moat area and the warming by diabatic heating in the upper part of the inner eyewall below 14-km height. Further analysis indicates that the eddy advection also played some role in the warming above 12-km height in the upper troposphere.

How Do Ocean Warm Anomalies Favor the Aggregation of Deep Convective Clouds?

AbstractWe investigate the role of a warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly (hot spot of typically 3 to 5 K) on the aggregation of convection using cloud-resolving simulations in a nonrotating framework. It is well known that SST gradients can spatially organize convection. Even with uniform SST, the spontaneous self-aggregation of convection is possible above a critical SST (here 295 K), arising mainly from radiative feedbacks. We investigate how a circular hot spot helps organize convection, and how self-aggregation feedbacks modulate this organization. The hot spot significantly accelerates aggregation, particularly for warmer/larger hot spots, and extends the range of SSTs for which aggregation occurs; however, at cold SST (290 K) the aggregated cluster disaggregates if we remove the hot spot. A large convective instability over the hot spot leads to stronger convection and generates a large-scale circulation which forces the subsidence drying outside the hot spot. Indeed, convection over the hot spot brings the atmosphere toward a warmer temperature. The warmer temperatures are imprinted over the whole domain by gravity waves and subsidence warming. The initial transient warming and concomitant subsidence drying suppress convection outside the hot spot, thus driving the aggregation. The hot-spot-induced large-scale circulation can enforce the aggregation even without radiative feedbacks for hot spots sufficiently large/warm. The strength of the large-scale circulation, which defines the speed of aggregation, is a function of the hot spot fractional area. At equilibrium, once the aggregation is well established, the moist convective region with upward midtropospheric motion, centered over the hot spot, has an area surprisingly independent of the hot spot size.

Transitions in the wintertime near-surface temperature inversion at Dome C, Antarctica.

In this work we study the dynamics of the surface‐based temperature inversion over the Antarctic Plateau during the polar winter. Using 6 years of observations from the French–Italian Antarctic station Concordia at Dome C, we investigate sudden regime transitions in the strength of the near‐surface temperature inversion. Here we define “near‐surface” as being within the domain of the 45‐m measuring tower. In particular, we consider the strongly nonlinear relation between the 10‐m inversion strength (T 10m – T s) and the 10‐m wind speed.To this end, all individual events for which the 10‐m inversion strength increases or decreases continuously by more than 15 K in time are considered. Composite time series and vertical profiles of wind and temperature reveal specific characteristics of the transition from weak to very strong inversions and vice versa. In contrast to midlatitudes, the largest variations in temperature are not found at the surface but at a height of 10 m.A similar analysis was performed on results from an atmospheric single‐column model (SCM). Overall, the SCM results reproduce the observed characteristics of the transitions in the near‐surface inversion remarkably well. Using model output, the underlying mechanisms of the regime transitions are identified. The nonlinear relation between inversion strength and wind speed at a given level is explained by variations in the geostrophic wind speed, changes in the depth of the turbulent layer and the vertical divergence of turbulent fluxes. Moreover, the transitions between different boundary layer regimes cannot be explained without considering the contribution of subsidence heating.

Spring soil temperature as a predictor of summer heatwaves over northwestern China

Northwestern China has been increasingly affected by summer heatwaves in recent decades. In this study, we show that summer heatwave events over northwestern China are significantly correlated with the spring soil temperature over central Asia for the period of 1979–2017, irrespective of whether the data are detrended. By analyzing the physical links, we find that warmer spring soil temperature over central Asia tends to result in positive geopotential height anomalies over northern China and Mongolia including northwestern China in summer, which may subsequently lead to more heatwave events via the effects on downward solar radiation, subsidence warming and other processes. We further establish a statistical model to predict summer heatwaves over northwestern China based on the spring soil temperature over central Asia. The results show that the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation for the correlation skill is 0.56 for the period of 1979–2017. The spatial patterns are captured well in the hindcast experiments for the period of 2012–2017, with all pattern correlation coefficients ≥0.88. Our proposed prediction model can be applied to practical forecasting and may help to reduce the damage caused by summer heatwaves over northwestern China.

Model Uncertainty in Cloud–Circulation Coupling, and Cloud-Radiative Response to Increasing CO2, Linked to Biases in Climatological Circulation

Recent analyses of global climate models suggest that uncertainty in the coupling between midlatitude clouds and the atmospheric circulation contributes to uncertainty in climate sensitivity. However, the reasons behind model differences in the cloud–circulation coupling have remained unclear. Here, we use a global climate model in an idealized aquaplanet setup to show that the Southern Hemisphere climatological circulation, which in many models is biased equatorward, contributes to the model differences in the cloud–circulation coupling. For the same poleward shift of the Hadley cell (HC) edge, models with narrower climatological HCs exhibit stronger midlatitude cloud-induced shortwave warming than models with wider climatological HCs. This cloud-induced radiative warming results predominantly from a subsidence warming that decreases cloud fraction and is stronger for narrower HCs because of a larger meridional gradient in the vertical velocity. A comparison of our aquaplanet results with comprehensive climate models suggests that about half of the model uncertainty in the midlatitude cloud–circulation coupling stems from this impact of the circulation on the large-scale temperature structure of the atmosphere, and thus could be removed by improving the climatological circulation in models. This illustrates how understanding of large-scale dynamics can help reduce uncertainty in clouds and their response to climate change.