Subsequent Accident Research Articles

Predicting black ice-related accidents with probabilistic modeling using GIS-based Monte Carlo simulation.

Black ice, a phenomenon that occurs abruptly owing to freezing rain, is difficult for drivers to identify because it mirrors the color of the road. Effectively managing the occurrence of unforeseen accidents caused by black ice requires predicting their probability using spatial, weather, and traffic factors and formulating appropriate countermeasures. Among these factors, weather and traffic exhibit the highest levels of uncertainty. To address these uncertainties, a study was conducted using a Monte Carlo simulation based on random values to predict the probability of black ice accidents at individual road points and analyze their trigger factors. We numerically modeled black ice accidents and visualized the simulation results in a geographical information system (GIS) by employing a sensitivity analysis, another feature of Monte Carlo simulations, to analyze the factors that trigger black ice accidents. The Monte Carlo simulation allowed us to map black ice accident occurrences at each road point on the GIS. The average black ice accident probability was found to be 0.0058, with a standard deviation of 0.001. Sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations identified wind speed, air temperature, and angle as significant triggers of black ice accidents, with sensitivities of 0.354, 0.270, and 0.203, respectively. We predicted the probability of black ice accidents per road section and analyzed the primary triggers of black ice accidents. The scientific contribution of this study lies in the development of a method beyond simple road temperature predictions for evaluating the risk of black ice occurrences and subsequent accidents. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, the probability of black ice accidents can be predicted more accurately through decoupling meteorological and traffic factors over time. The results can serve as a reference for government agencies, including road traffic authorities, to identify accident-prone spots and devise strategies focused on the primary triggers of black ice accidents.

Relationship between a company's adequate response to near-misses and occupational accidents: a 1-year prospective cohort study.

Near-misses in the workplace indicate potential safety hazards, and their adequate management is considered extremely important in preventing occupational accidents. However, the impact of a company's response to near-misses on the occurrence of subsequent accidents remains unclear. This study examined the relationship between the adequacy of a company's responses to near-misses and the occurrence of occupational accidents. We conducted a 1-year prospective cohort study using an online self-administered questionnaire, targeting workers in Japan. The study included 2755 participants who had experienced and reported near-misses. We categorized company responses to these near-misses as adequate, inadequate, or no response. The outcome was the incidence of occupational accidents over the past year. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs using multilevel logistic regression adjusting for covariates. Among all participants, 59.0% were in the adequate response group, 30.1% were in the inadequate response group, and 10.8% were in the no response group. In the multivariate-adjusted model, the ORs of the inadequate response and the no response groups were 1.53 (95% CI, 1.25-1.88; P < .001) and 1.75 (95% CI, 1.32-2.33; P < .001), respectively. Our results suggest that the adequacy of a company's response to near-misses reported by workers can be significantly related to the occurrence of subsequent occupational accidents. Companies need to thoroughly respond to near-misses reported by workers and adequately inform workers about the company's safety activities. This may lead to a reduction in the number of subsequent occupational accidents.

Identification and screening of key traffic violations: based on the perspective of expressing driver’s accident risk

Drawing on the core idea of Propensity Score Matching, this study proposes a new concept named Historical Traffic Violation Propensity to describe the driver’s historical traffic violations, and combines the new concept with an improved mutual information-based feature selection algorithm to construct a method for screening key traffic violations from the perspective of expressing driver’s accident risk. The validation analysis based on the real data collected in Shenzhen demonstrated that drivers’ state of Historical Traffic Violation Propensity on 19 key traffic violations screened have a stronger predictive ability of their subsequent accidents compared to the level in existing research. The positive state of Historical Traffic Violation Propensity on ‘Drinking’, ‘Parking in dangerous areas’, ‘Wrong use of turn lights’, ‘Violating prohibited and restricted traffic regulations’, and ‘Disobeying prohibition sign’ will increase the probability of a driver’s subsequent accident by more than 1.7 times. The research provides directions to more efficiently and accurately capture the driver’s accident risk through historical traffic violations, which is valuable for identifying high-risk drivers as well as the key psychological or physical risk factors that manifest in daily driving activities and lead to subsequent accidents.

Research on fault diagnosis system for belt conveyor based on internet of things and the LightGBM model.

As an equipment failure that often occurs in coal production and transportation, belt conveyor failure usually requires many human and material resources to be identified and diagnosed. Therefore, it is urgent to improve the efficiency of fault identification, and this paper combines the internet of things (IoT) platform and the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) model to establish a fault diagnosis system for the belt conveyor. Firstly, selecting and installing sensors for the belt conveyor to collect the running data. Secondly, connecting the sensor and the Aprus adapter and configuring the script language on the client side of the IoT platform. This step enables the collected data to be uploaded to the client side of the IoT platform, where the data can be counted and visualized. Finally, the LGBM model is built to diagnose the conveyor faults, and the evaluation index and K-fold cross-validation prove the model's effectiveness. In addition, after the system was established and debugged, it was applied in practical mine engineering for three months. The field test results show: (1) The client of the IoT can well receive the data uploaded by the sensor and present the data in the form of a graph. (2) The LGBM model has a high accuracy. In the test, the model accurately detected faults, including belt deviation, belt slipping, and belt tearing, which happened twice, two times, one time and one time, respectively, as well as timely gaving warnings to the client and effectively avoiding subsequent accidents. This application shows that the fault diagnosis system of belt conveyors can accurately diagnose and identify belt conveyor failure in the coal production process and improve the intelligent management of coal mines.

Integrated Post-Impact Planning and Active Safety Control for Autonomous Vehicles

How to reduce traffic accidents and improve vehicle safety has always aroused widespread concern. Secondary and serial collision accidents can result in more serious hazards as the initial collision can easily destabilize a high-speed vehicle and the driver may fail to maintain effective control due to panic. With this in mind, a planning-integrated active safety control system is developed for post-impact vehicles to avoid subsequent accidents. The vehicle dynamics model is established considering the roll degree of freedom. The constraint equivalent methods based on the octagon and rhombus envelopes are proposed to linearize the road adhesion constraint and the obstacle avoidance constraint, respectively. A planning-integrated model predictive controller (MPC) is developed for post-impact vehicles to achieve the coordination of stability recovery and the avoidance of secondary collision with surrounding vehicles. In the meantime, an obstacle avoidance decision strategy based on the safe braking distance is designed to cope with different traffic scenes. Furthermore, a control allocator based on particle swarm optimization is developed to achieve the high-efficiency allocation of the resultant control output of MPC under post-impact extreme conditions. The proposed scheme is verified under comprehensive driving scenarios through hardware-in-loop tests.

후쿠시마 원전사고 이후의 문학에 나타난 방사능과 경계

More than 10 years have passed since the earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011, and the subsequent accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. However, the “nuclear emergency declaration” that came out immediately after the accident has not been lifted as of January 2023. Due to the nuclear accident, many people are still evacuating, and it is uncertain when and how the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant will be decommissioned.&#x0D; In this paper, we analyzed through specific works how literature is facing problems such as nuclear accidents and radioactive contamination in this situation. Hitomi Kanehara's The One Who Doesn't Have deals with the issue of fear of radiation exposure and depicts specific aspects of life after Fukushima. Hideo Furukawa's Or a Billion Years of Surah imagines an island=forest isolated from the outside world due to a nuclear accident in the near future, and questions the border of radioactive contamination. Erika Kobayashi's Breakfast with Madame Curie recognizes the invisibility of radiation as a trace of an invisible existence, and connects various time and space related to radioactivity and nuclear power.

Long-term Health Risks of Cancer in Ukraine: Insights from the 2011 Fukushima Triple Disaster Experience.

The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War and the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan have many similarities, such as mass evacuation, family separation, difficulty in accessing necessary medical care, and reduced health priorities. Although several studies have reported concerns about the short-term health impacts of the war on patients with cancer, little has been noted about the long-term effects it may cause. Given the experience of the Fukushima accident, it is important to establish a long-term support system for patients with cancer in Ukraine.

What have we learned about health effects more than 40 years after the Three Mile Island nuclear accident? A scoping and process review

AbstractThe worst commercial nuclear accident and the first large‐scale voluntary evacuation due to a nuclear event in United States history took place at Three Mile Island (TMI) in 1979. Within a short time, there was a well‐recognized impact of the TMI accident by public health officials and academicians upon mental health of nearby residents—particularly pregnant women. Despite long‐term and detailed follow‐up of this population for cancer outcomes, community concerns continue. Herein, we conduct a scoping and process review of fetal/maternal/child health (MCH) and cancer health outcomes, and consider the findings in light of subsequent accidents. The process evaluation is enhanced by unpublished transcripts of the Pennsylvania Department of Health's (PA DOH) TMI Advisory Panel on Health Research Studies (APHRS), comprised of experts from prominent US research institutions. Research and process strengths included a rapid initial house‐to‐house health census of over 35,000 individuals, intense medical record reviews, in‐person interviews of pregnant women within a 10‐mile radius, and coordination of multiple parallel studies by PA DOH with APHRS collaboration. Major limitations include (1) errors in causal inference, (2) limited radiation exposure assessment, (3) failure to include TMI never‐exposed groups in risk estimates, (4) exclusion of vulnerable populations, (5) nonindexed/never published investigations, and (6) government‐stated need for long‐term MCH follow‐up that was never conducted. Lingering unaddressed actual and perceived risks were identified as major common themes among TMI, Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. These findings underscore the need for the establishment of mechanisms to ensure long‐term follow‐up and preaccident protocols designed to address major health issues with inclusion of vulnerable populations and perceived risks.

Identification and Screening of Key Traffic Violations: Based on the Correlation between Driver's Historical Traffic Violation Propensity and Subsequent Accident Occurrence

Identification and Screening of Key Traffic Violations: Based on the Correlation between Driver's Historical Traffic Violation Propensity and Subsequent Accident Occurrence

PREVIOUS MILITARY PILOTS AND THEIR LATER FATAL CIVIL AVIATION ACCIDENTS

Military pilots undergo rigorous selection compared with civilian professional pilots because of different operational requirements. There are no studies of military pilots’ subsequent civil aviation careers and fatal pilot aviation accidents. This study focuses on Vietnam War (VW) pilots and subsequent fatal aviation accidents in the U.S from 1965 to 2018. In total nine aviation accidents met the inclusion criteria and are described in detail, including the pilots’ previous civil aviation incidents. The VW pilots were healthy, had valid Medicals and continued to fly in demanding pilot positions after their military careers. Although the data are limited, this study suggests that previous military pilots may differ slightly from other pilots in their subsequent civil aviation careers.

Emergency fault affected wide-area automatic generation control via large-scale deep reinforcement learning

When a complex large power system is in an emergency, the conventional discrete emergency control strategy implemented will cause excess load or derivative accidents like line power overload, thereby raising the operation risk. To overcome the problems of excessive/insufficient regulation and subsequent accidents in the above context, this paper proposes a wide area automatic generation control (WA-AGC) framework, which integrates the emergency control strategy and a performance-based frequency regulation market mechanism. According to the frequency status of the power system, WA-AGC divides the AGC into four intervals, emergency AGC (EAGC), conventional AGC (CAGC), AGC transition and optimal power flow (OPF). These four together realize a comprehensive optimization of frequency and system stability as well as economy Based on the above framework, a swarm agent exploration distributed multiple delayed deep policy gradient algorithm (SAE-MD3) is developed, which uses multiple explorers with different exploration strategies for distributed optimization. In addition, several technologies are introduced to prevent Q value overestimation and generate a more robust optimal AGC strategy. Afterward, the effectiveness and feasibility of WA-AGC are verified through the simulations of an IEEE-9 two-area system and an IEEE-118 two-area system. Compared to conventional AGC strategies, the WA-AGC algorithm reduces the constraint violation time of the power line by 92.06% and the power generation cost by 0.27% as well as improves the CPS1 index by 0.04%.

ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES AND METHODS OF OVERCOMING THE 2011&#x0D; MAN-GENERAL DISASTER IN JAPAN

Annotation: the work is devoted to the study of the economic consequences of the earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011 off the eastern coast of the Japanese island of Honshu and the subsequent accident at the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant. The features of the disaster of 2011 and the specific economic problems that the country faced, as well as the methods by which the government resolved them were considered. They touched upon the attitude of mankind to nuclear energy in the context of such man-made disasters. The work is valuable both for considering both the economic and cultural features of the "Land of the Rising Sun".

Assessment of the state of intracardiac hemodynamics and myocardial remodeling in women with gonarthritis, hypertension and overweight

Abstract. The problem of comorbidity is one of the most pressing problems of modern medicine. The presence of arterial hypertension and overweight in patients with gonarthritis is associated with an earlier development of target organ damage and subsequent cardiovascular accidents. In order to assess intracardiac hemodynamics and types of myocardial remodeling in women with gonarthritis, hypertension and overweight, depending on their combinations, from 2018 to2021, a prospective study of 198 patients of the rheumatology department of the «City Hospital № 10» (Zaporizhzhia) was carried out. According to the results of the study, it was found that the presence of comorbid pathology in the form of arterial hypertension and overweight in female patients with gonarthritis negatively affects the contractile function of the heart, which is confirmed by a decrease in the main indicators of systolic function of the left ventricle; the specified combination of diseases leads to the formation of prognostically unfavorable types of left ventricular remodeling.

Validation of Unit 1 of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant during its Accident

Ten years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) that occurred on March 11, 2011. The earthquake and tsunami caused significant loss of lives and widespread disaster in Japan. Several reports have been published on the nuclear accident; however, the original data released at the beginning of the accident were written in Japanese, and some of these documents are no longer accessible. Some of the scenarios pertaining to the accident have become standardized theories, and these scenarios may be passed down to future generations with different descriptions, which may not fully describe the actual occurrences. To prevent future nuclear accidents, the accident at Fukushima Daiichi must be properly understood and analyzed.

Analysis of Changes in Roof Crush Resistance of a Vehicle with the Roof and A/B-pillar Repaired after an Accident Following a Subsequent Accident

Analysis of Changes in Roof Crush Resistance of a Vehicle with the Roof and A/B-pillar Repaired after an Accident Following a Subsequent Accident

Determinants and supporting factors for rebuilding nursing workforce in a post-disaster setting

BackgroundThe workforce shortage is one of the major issues associated with the recovery of Minamisoma City in Fukushima Prefecture, after the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent accidents at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plants in March 2011. While the radiation risks are often discussed as a major factor of evacuation, little is known about the actual reasons why the residents chose to evacuate, and what enables them to return.This study aims to find the essential factors for rebuilding the workforce in a post-disaster setting by analysing the residents’ decisions about evacuation and the return to Minamisoma. In particular, we focus on the experiences of nurses as an example of healthcare workers, who play an important role in the disaster recovery.MethodsThe data were obtained through qualitative interviews in a semi-structured form with 25 nurses from four hospitals in Minamisoma City. The interview questions focused on the reasons of their decisions on evacuation and return. The data were analysed by a thematic approach to investigate the major factors which led them to evacuate and enabled them to return afterwards, as well as the support they needed to resettle.ResultsNearly two-thirds of the interviewees chose to evacuate from Minamisoma with their family. Family conditions seem to be the predominant factor that influenced their decisions. In particular, having small children was a strong cause for evacuation. After a certain period of time, the nurses that evacuated were then faced with another decision about returning to the area; once again, having children, as well as other life factors, such as livelihoods, job opportunities and emotional attachment to the work, influenced this decision. On the other hand, radiation risk was a minor factor. Therefore, we analyse that improved support considering their life situations would contribute to the better retention of the nurses.ConclusionsWe suggest measures such as parenting supports, ensuring job opportunities after return, and psychological support in the workplace as possible solutions for higher job retention.

“Insignificant” Lives and the Power of the Arts after Fukushima

From October 6, 2018, to January 20, 2019, the exhibition Catastrophe and the Power of Art was on view at the Mori Art Museum in Tokyo. The exhibition, curated by Kondo Kenichi, was notable for the choice of topic and the display of relevant pieces created by international artists. Moreover, it coincided with the fifteenth anniversary of the museum. Museum director Nanjo Fumio explained that while the tenth anniversary was dedicated to universal themes such as “happiness” and “love,” catastrophe became central for the fifteenth anniversary “given the disasters and tragedies that seem to be a constant presence today.”1 The showcased works were thoughtful in so many ways that my first response was to wish that I could have mentioned the exhibition in my own book on the arts of the atomic age.2 But the book was about to be distributed, so it was too late. As an afterthought, however, and acknowledging that several other exhibitions with nuclear accidents as their topic have been touring in the past year in the West, I realized that the arts have not kept silent or forgotten about the Great East Japan Earthquake—or “3.11”—and the subsequent nuclear accident at Fukushima’s power plant. The choice itself—to focus on catastrophe seven years after the disaster, and to make it a central topic for an anniversary exhibition—is telling. At first, I intended to write a simple review of the exhibition, but while finishing my first version, protests began at the Whitney Museum of American Art against a trustee, Warren B. Kanders, whose company Safariland produces military and law enforcement supplies such as tear gas, believed to have been used on hundreds of migrants at the United States/Mexican border. Not long before, protests were held at the Metropolitan Museum of Art and the Solomon R. Guggenheim …

Behind closed doors: the DC-10 and the demise of McDonnell Douglas

Theoretical basis This case has three primary objectives. First, it allows students to think through a conceptual cost and benefit analysis associated with the decision-making process in line with basic economic thinking. Students will revisit core concepts of marginal benefit vs marginal cost, the notion of opportunity costs and the role of sunk costs in this type of analysis, while also highlighting the nature of market structure, oligopolies and competition across firms in an industry. The second goal of this case is to consider the role of business ethics in the DC-10 case: specifically, to consider the potential influence of moral awareness and moral disengagement in unethical decisions made by McDonnell Douglas. Students will develop an understanding of these concepts and solidify their learning by applying them to the case and engaging in active discussion. Finally, the third goal of the case allows students to explore organizational culture and specifically offer recommendations for organizations thinking about the link between decision-making, the role of ethics and culture. Research methodology The technical reports released by the National Transportation Safety Board along with secondary data such as available public data such as news reports were used to round out the synopsis of the case study. Case overview /synopsis This case explores the accidents of two McDonnell Douglas DC-10s in the early 1970s at the onset of the jumbo jet race between Boeing, Lockheed and McDonnell Douglas. It explores the series of events during the “Windsor Incident” in 1972 and the subsequent accident over Paris in 1974. It explores the reasons why the cargo door on the DC-10 was faulty and subsequently why the door was not fixed. It examines the interplay of industry suppliers such as McDonnell Douglas and how they interact with oversight authorities such as the Federal Aviation Authority. The Teaching Note focuses on the economic thinking at McDonnell Douglas, behavioral ethics and organizational culture. Complexity academic level This case is best explored over a 90 min session but could be expanded to take up one 3 h session. The authors have used this case format in an undergraduate organizational behavior class, an MBA Leadership and Organizational Change class, and an MBA Economics of Managers class. It works particularly well in the MBA setting, as students with work experience can see the links between the mistakes made by McDonnell Douglas and their workplaces.

Unraveling the cause of an aircraft accident

An investigation of a twin-engine fighter aircraft accident has been reported. The accident was caused due to fuel leakage. The primary failure which led to the fuel leakage and the subsequent accident to the aircraft was identified. The failure involved fatigue fracture in a pipeline supplying fuel to the hydraulic cylinder for jet nozzle operation of one of the engines. Although the identification of the primary failure was successful, further analysis in establishing the cause of the failure of the pipeline, and the time duration over which the failure occurred, raised several questions. These questions needed to be answered by the failure analysts for enabling the investigating committee to proceed further with the investigation. Through a detailed fractography study in conjunction with the fracture-mechanics-based calculations, the fracture process in the pipeline was explained. Following this, further metallurgical studies on the failed pipeline were planned for unraveling the primary cause that led to the accident. It was established that excessive softening of the material during the brazing operation was responsible for the premature fatigue crack initiation in the pipeline. Since the accident had serious implications on the manufacturer as well as the operator, the failure analysts had to overcome several hurdles during the course of the investigation. The investigation presented in this article is an example of how systematic approach to a failure can help in bringing out the truth in conflicting situations.

Arai Takashi and Nagashima Yurie through the Historical Frame of “Japanese Photography”

Arai Takashi and Nagashima Yurie through the Historical Frame of “Japanese Photography” Nakamura Fumiko (bio) and Kevin Niehaus (bio) Translated by Mai Hayano (bio) Click for larger view View full resolution 15.2. Arai Takashi, A Maquette for a Multiple Monument for the Wristwatch Dug Up from Ueno-machi, Nagasaki Atomic Bomb Museum, 2014. © Arai Takashi. Courtesy of the artist. [End Page 204] Many artists working with photography today have begun to deviate from the two-dimensional traditional format of the medium and are extending their artistic range to include installation art, video, and performances. It has therefore become extremely difficult to identify the techniques and forms of expression that the term “photography” indicates. In light of these global trends, this essay examines Arai Takashi (b. 1978) and Nagashima Yurie (b. 1973), two renowned Japanese artists of the 2010s, by considering their work against the backdrop of the genealogy of Japanese photography. At present, both artists have broken with utilizing the traditional two-dimensional surface and instead are creating works that encompass a broad range of expression, including video, writings, and installation art. Tying their work to the history of Japanese photography therefore includes the risk of producing a critique that runs counter to their current interdisciplinary activities. Yet, the themes in their work, including the transformation of private life into art, as well as the representation of nuclear issues in a country with a history of being attacked by the atomic bomb, are nevertheless characteristic of the field of Japanese photography as a whole. Arai and Nagashima engage these characteristics endemic to the field and have proceeded to develop them from within the more focused discourse of contemporary art. It is for this reason that I resituate the pair within the history of Japanese photography, analyzing their art from the standpoint of their relationship to the genealogy of Japanese photographic expression. Specifically, I examine their individual works to trace both the history underpinning their production and how critics evaluate their work. Moreover, this essay attempts to illuminate the issues articulated by the field of Japanese photography and explore how these same issues are taken up by contemporary artists. By reexamining Arai’s and Nagashima’s work from within the limited scope of the history of Japanese photography, I will attempt to shed light on traits in their art that have been overlooked, with the hope that these individual elements can, in turn, be positioned vis-à-vis more universal issues. [End Page 205] On EXPOSED in a Hundred Suns Arai is widely known for his use of the classic technique of the daguerreotype. The daguerreotype is a unique artistic medium; equipped with a specific materiality, the image created can neither be duplicated nor reproduced as a paper print. The daguerreotype is specular, reflecting ambient light to draw the viewer deeper into the work. And, despite its incredibly high resolution, depending on the lighting and viewing angle the image can nevertheless give the impression of vanishing and reappearing. The daguerreotype is therefore characterized by both the intricate detail of the image and its larger instability. Arai first became interested in the issue of nuclear weapons in 2010 while researching art movements from the 1950s. He came across the history of the Lucky Dragon Incident (in which the Japanese fishing boat Lucky Dragon 5 was contaminated by radiation near the Bikini Atoll after the United States conducted a nuclear weapons test) and the movements to ban atomic and hydrogen bombs. After experiencing the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, he created two series of photographs: Here and There Tomorrow’s Islands (2011-), photographed in Fukushima and Tokyo, and EXPOSED in a Hundred Suns (2012-), in which he photographed objects related to nuclear weapons. This essay focuses on EXPOSED in a Hundred Suns, not only because the concepts of the photographic subject and the work of art here intersect with the technique of the daguerreotype in a unique manner, but also because the series engages the representation of nuclear weapons, which is consistently problematized across the history of Japanese photography. Click for larger view View full resolution 15.1. Arai Takashi, May 13...