Monitoring the progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) using CT primarily focuses on assessing the extent of fibrotic lesions, without considering the distortion of lung architecture. To evaluate three-dimensional average displacement (3D-AD) quantification of lung structures using deformable registration of serial CT images as a parameter of local lung architectural distortion and predictor of IPF prognosis. Patients with IPF evaluated between January 2016 and March 2017 who had undergone CT at least twice were retrospectively included (n = 114). The 3D-AD was obtained by deformable registration of baseline and follow-up CT images. A computer-aided quantification software measured the fibrotic lesion volume. Cox regression analysis evaluated these variables to predict mortality. The 3D-AD and the fibrotic lesion volume change were significantly larger in the subpleural lung region (5.2 mm (interquartile range (IQR): 3.6-7.1 mm) and 0.70% (IQR: 0.22-1.60%), respectively) than those in the inner region (4.7 mm (IQR: 3.0-6.4 mm) and 0.21% (IQR: 0.004-1.12%), respectively). Multivariable logistic analysis revealed that subpleural region 3D-AD and fibrotic lesion volume change were independent predictors of mortality (hazard ratio: 1.12 and 1.23; 95% confidence interval: 1.02-1.22 and 1.10-1.38; p = 0.01 and p < 0.001, respectively). The 3D-AD quantification derived from deformable registration of serial CT images serves as a marker of lung architectural distortion and a prognostic predictor in patients with IPF.
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