Subnational Population Projections Research Articles

Sub-National Population Projections for Mexico Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the Context of Climate Change

Sub-National Population Projections for Mexico Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the Context of Climate Change

Future Blood Debt: Projecting Blood Supply and Demand of Korea Based on Subnational Population Projections (2021-2050).

South Korea faces a critical challenge with its rapidly declining fertility rates and an increasingly aging population, which significantly impacts the country's blood supply and demand. Despite these nationwide trends, regional disparities in blood supply and demand have not been thoroughly studied. This research utilized blood donation data from the Korean Red Cross and blood transfusion data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. We analyzed these datasets in conjunction with regional population projections to simulate blood supply and demand from 2021 to 2050 across South Korea. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of various factors, including the number of donors, age eligibility criteria for donations, frequency of donations, and blood discard rates. Our projections indicate a decreasing trend in blood supply, from 2.6 million units in 2021 to 1.4 million units by 2050, while demand is expected to peak at 5.1 million units by 2045 before declining. Metropolitan areas, particularly Gyeonggi Province, are projected to experience the most severe shortages. Sensitivity analyses suggest that increasing the donation frequency of existing donors and relaxing age eligibility criteria are more effective strategies in addressing these imbalances than merely increasing the number of new donors. Blood discard rates showed minimal impact on the overall blood shortage. The findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted strategies to mitigate national and regional blood supply shortages in South Korea. Encouraging frequent donations from experienced donors and broadening eligibility criteria are critical steps toward stabilizing the blood supply amidst demographic shifts. These strategies must be prioritized to address the impending regional disparities in blood availability.

Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections.

Population projections provide predictions of future population sizes for an area. Historically, most population projections have been produced using deterministic or scenario-based approaches and have not assessed uncertainty about future population change. Starting in 2015, however, the United Nations (UN) has produced probabilistic population projections for all countries using a Bayesian approach. There is also considerable interest in subnational probabilistic population projections, but the UN's national approach cannot be used directly for this purpose, because within-country correlations in fertility and mortality are generally larger than between-country ones, migration is not constrained in the same way, and there is a need to account for college and other special populations, particularly at the county level. We propose a Bayesian method for producing subnational population projections, including migration and accounting for college populations, by building on but modifying the UN approach. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the counties of Washington State and comparing the results with extant deterministic projections produced by Washington State demographers. Out-of-sample experiments show that our method gives accurate and well-calibrated forecasts and forecast intervals. In most cases, our intervals were narrower than the growth-based intervals issued by the state, particularly for shorter time horizons.

Frameworks to envision equitable urban futures in a changing climate: A multi-level, multidisciplinary case study of New York City

Cities are at the forefront of climate change action and planning for futures that are concomitantly more resilient and equitable, making local goals imperative for global sustainability. Under the multiple challenges of changing climatic, ecological and socio-economic conditions, cities need the means to meet these goals. We know cities are and will continue to be points of concentrated and diverse populations, socioeconomic vulnerability, amplified exposure, transformed ecosystems and are responsible for the bulk of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, much is also unknown and intrinsically uncertain about urban futures: there is a range of potential plausible futures which have differing implications for both potential mitigation and adaptation actions. To better assess these plausible futures, the “global change” research community developed a framework including scenarios that are applicable for global and regional policy, entitled the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and scenarios exploring future emissions that will drive climate change, entitled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Importantly, this global scale framework does not include specific city-level perspectives or data at the spatial scales necessary to address questions of local relevance. While the SSPs address many of the key population and socioeconomic drivers of climate change, they do not address important concerns that are particularly relevant to cities, such as racial justice, ecosystem change or migration. Nevertheless, city-level impacts will evolve, in part, as a function of the global scale change characterized by the SSPs, and in part based on demographic and social processes already underway. As such, applying a modification of this framework to cities has the potential to help limit local climate impacts, and create a more resilient, equitable city. To address these needs and respond to city and regional stakeholders, we propose a framework for science-based narratives and quantitative projections for cities and metropolitan areas, such as Greater New York City. In this paper, we review a wide-range of existing approaches to generate estimates of future populations and identify their vulnerabilities to climate-change hazards, ranging from subnational population projections or the spatially-explicit allocation of populations linked to SSPs for the US and selected cities, city-specific population forecasting without climate considerations, and participatory approaches to future scenario development and fine-scale, within-city land use change models. By showcasing the strengths and limitations of various approaches and modeling efforts, their spatial and temporal scales, and thematic breadth, we propose a novel framework that leverages state-of-the art quantitative approaches and couples it with stakeholder engagement that can help cities plan equitably under uncertainty.

Short- to medium-run forecasting of mobility with dynamic linear models

Long-term projections of mobility are key inputs to sub-national population projections. These long-term projections are based on extrapolations of long-term trends. In cases of strong, potentially temporal, fluctuations it is informative to analyse the sho

Why were there 231707 more deaths than expected in England between 2010 and 2018? An ecological analysis of mortality records.

BackgroundPolicy responses to the Global Financial Crisis emphasized wide-ranging fiscal austerity measures, many of which have been found to negatively impact health outcomes. This paper investigates change in patterns of mortality at local authority level in England (2010–11 to 2017–18) and the relation with fiscal austerity measures.MethodsData from official local authority administrative records are used to quantify the gap between observed deaths and what was anticipated in the 2010-based subnational population projections. Regression analyses are used to explore the relation between excess deaths, austerity and wider process of population change at local authority level.ResultsWe estimate 231 707 total excess deaths, the majority of which occurred since 2014–15 (89%) across the majority of local authorities (91%). Austerity is positively associated with excess deaths. For working age adults, there is a clear gradient to the impact of austerity, whereas for older adults, the impact is more uniform.ConclusionsFiscal austerity policies contributed to an excess of deaths for older people and widened social inequalities for younger populations. These results call for an end to all austerity measures and require further research into areas with the highest total excess deaths as a priority following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Population scenarios for U.S. states consistent with shared socioeconomic pathways

There is a growing demand for subnational population projections for informing potential demographic influences on many aspects of society and the environment at the scale at which interactions occur and actions are taken. Existing US subnational population projections have not fully accounted for regional variations of demographic rates and therefore under-estimate the uncertainties in and heterogeneity of population trends. We present a first set of population projections for US states that span a wide but plausible range of population outcomes driven by changing state-level demographic rates consistent with the widely used SSP scenario framework. The projections are carried out for all 50 states integrated through bilateral gross migration flows. They update the original national-level SSP population projections based on recently available data and introduce more plausible assumptions on long-term international migration. We project a national population ranging from about 250–650 million by 2100, somewhat lower than the SSP projections due mainly to updated base year data. Utah and other states in the Rocky Mountain region see the largest increases in population in proportional terms, while the Northeast and Great Lakes regions see the slowest growth or most decline, along with individual states like Alaska, California, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Aging occurs in all states and scenarios, but is most prominent in the Northeast, Florida, and in some cases states in the West and the Great Lakes region. The relative contributions of fertility, mortality, and migration to population change varies substantially across states.

Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway

Small area and subnational population projections are important for understanding long-term demographic changes. I provide county-level population projections by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for the period 2020–2100 for all U.S. counties. Using historic U.S. census data in temporally rectified county boundaries and race groups for the period 1990–2015, I calculate cohort-change ratios (CCRs) and cohort-change differences (CCDs) for eighteen five-year age groups (0–85+ ), two sex groups (Male and Female), and four race groups (White NH, Black NH, Other NH, Hispanic) for all U.S counties. I then project these CCRs/CCDs using ARIMA models as inputs into Leslie matrix population projection models and control the projections to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. I validate the methods using ex-post facto evaluations using data from 1969–2000 to project 2000–2015. My results are reasonably accurate for this period. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs for addressing questions involving sub-national demographic change in the United States.

The nearness to death effect and why NHS pressures are going to intensify

Journal of Paramedic PracticeVol. 11, No. 1 CommentThe nearness to death effect and why NHS pressures are going to intensifyRodney P JonesRodney P JonesSearch for more papers by this authorRodney P JonesPublished Online:12 Jan 2019https://doi.org/10.12968/jpar.2019.11.1.28AboutSectionsView articleView Full TextPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissions ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail View article References Hanlon P, Walsh D, Whyte B et al.. Hospital use by an ageing cohort: an investigation into the association between biological, behavoural and social risk markers and subsequent hospital utilization. J Public Health Med. 1998; 20(4):467–476 Crossref, Google ScholarJones R. What government data on death rates fail to show. Brit J Healthc Manag. 2017a; 23(8):572–573 Link, Google ScholarJones R. Deaths and medical admissions – what is happening in the UK? Fractal Geometry Nonlinear Anal Med Biol Med Biol. 2017b; 3(1): in press. https://tinyurl.com/yb2n86kr (accessed 6 January 2019) Google ScholarJones R. Year-to-year variation in deaths in English Output Areas (OA), and the interaction between a presumed infectious agent and influenza in 2015. SMU Med J. 2017c; 4(2):37–69. https://tinyurl.com/yczo4pvf (accessed 6 January 2019) Google ScholarJones R. Outbreaks of a presumed infectious pathogen creating on/off switching in deaths. SDRP J Infect Dis Treat Ther. 2017d; 1(1):1–6. https://tinyurl.com/yb58846n (accessed 6 January 2019) Google ScholarJones R. Role of social group and gender in outbreaks of a novel agent leading to increased deaths, with insights into higher international deaths in 2015. Fractal Geometry Nonlinear Anal Med Biol Med Biol. 2017e; 3(1): in press. https://doi.org/10.15761/FGNAMB.1000146. https://tinyurl.com/ydancach (accessed 6 January 2019) Google ScholarJones R. Different patterns of male and female deaths in 2015 in English and Welsh local authorities question the role of austerity as the primary force behind higher deaths. Fractal Geometry Nonlinear Anal Med Biol Med Biol. 2017f; 3(1): in press. https://doi.org/10.15761/FGNAMB.1000145. https://tinyurl.com/yd9929ad (accessed 6 January 2019) Google ScholarJones R. Deaths and medical admissions in the UK show an unexplained and sustained peak after 2011. Eur J Intern Med. 2018a; 47: e14–e16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejim.2017.09.021 Crossref, Google ScholarJones R. Will 2018 set a record for deaths? Brit J Healthc Manag. 2018b; 24(9):464–465 Link, Google ScholarJones R. Periods of unexplained higher deaths and medical admissions have occurred previously – but were apparently ignored, misinterpreted or not investigated. Eur J Intern Med. 2018c; 40:e18–e20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejim.2017.11.004 Crossref, Google ScholarMoore P, Bennett K, Normand C. Counting the time lived, the time left or illness? Age, proximity to death, morbidity and prescribing expenditures. Soc Sci Med. 2017; 184:1–14 Crossref, Google ScholarNHS Digital. Hospital admitted patient care activity, 2017/18. 2018. https://tinyurl.com/y8w8lm5y (accessed 6 January 2019) Google ScholarOffice for National Statistics. Deaths by single year of age tables – UK. 2018a. https://tinyurl.com/y7v5nvvf (accessed 6 January 2019) Google ScholarOffice for National Statistics. Subnational population projections for England, 2016-based. 2018b. https://tinyurl.com/y9d7p2ub (accessed 6 January 2019) Google ScholarPayne G, Laporte A, Deber R, Coyte P. Counting backward to health care's future: Using time-to-death modleing to identify changes in end-of-life morbidity and the impact of aging on health care expenditures. Milbank Q. 2007; 85:213–257 Crossref, Google Scholar FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsCited byWill the winter of 2019/20 have unusually high service demand? Part 2: StrategyRodney P Jones13 December 2019 | Journal of Paramedic Practice, Vol. 11, No. 12Will the winter of 2019/2020 have unusually high service demand? Part 1: LessonsRodney P Jones5 November 2019 | Journal of Paramedic Practice, Vol. 11, No. 11End-of-life demand is highly volatile and shows unexpected trendsRodney P Jones13 March 2019 | Journal of Paramedic Practice, Vol. 11, No. 3Ignorance isn't bliss: behind the unequal distribution of end-of-life demand and costRodney P Jones4 February 2019 | Journal of Paramedic Practice, Vol. 11, No. 2 2 January 2019Volume 11Issue 1ISSN (print): 1759-1376ISSN (online): 2041-9457 Metrics History Published online 12 January 2019 Published in print 2 January 2019 Information© MA Healthcare LimitedPDF download

Evaluation of Sub-National Population Projections: a Case Study for London and the Thames Valley

Sub-national population projections help allocate national funding to local areas for planning local services. For example, water utilities prepare plans to meet future water demand over long-term horizons. Future demand depends on projected populations and households and forecasts of per household and per capita domestic water consumption in supply zones. This paper reports on population projections prepared for a water utility, Thames Water, which supplies water to over nine million people in London and the Thames Valley. Thames Water required an evaluation of the accuracy of the delivered projections against alternatives and estimates of uncertainty. The paper reviews how such evaluations have been made by researchers. The factors leading to variation in sub-national projections are identified. The methods, assumptions and results for English sub-national areas, used in five sets of projections, are compared. There is a consensus across projections about the future fertility and mortality but varying views about the future impact of internal and international migration flows. However, the greatest differences were between projections using ethnic populations and those using homogeneous populations. Areas with high populations of ethnic minorities were projected to grow faster when an ethnic-specific model was used. This result is important for assessing projections for countries housing diverse populations with different demographic profiles. Historic empirical prediction intervals are used to assess the uncertainty of the London and the Thames Valley projections. By 2101 the preferred projection suggests that the population of the Thames Water region will have grown by 85% within an 80% empirical prediction interval between 45 and 125%.

Ukpopulation: unified national and subnational population estimates and projections, including variants

ukpopulation: unified national and subnational population estimates and projections, including variants

An Alternative to Fixed Transition Probabilities for the Projection of Interprovincial Migration in Canada

Internal migration plays a critical role in subnational population projections. The multiregional model is often seen as a gold standard, for its capacity to project several interconnected regions simultaneously and coherently. However, undesirable effects may occur when assumptions of constant transition probabilities are used. This paper investigates these limits, explores a few solutions provided in the literature and describes the alternative methodology used by Statistics Canada in its most recent edition of population projections for the Canadian provinces and territories. Among other things, the new method is shown to improve the consistency between internal migration assumptions and results and to facilitate the projection of the uncertainty associated with this component.

How accurate are official subnational population projections

How accurate are official subnational population projections

Subnational Population Projections by Age: An Evaluation of Combined Forecast Techniques

Population projections commonly suffer from a decreasing accuracy with a higher degree of disaggregation. We suggest combining the cohort-component model and an averaged projection technique to improve precision of forecasts for small areas. Calculating ex-post population projections, we evaluate the precision and bias of the proposed method by contrasting error patterns of commonly used techniques using official population data from 46 districts of a German state for the years 1980–2013. In comparison to the individual methods considered, the combined approach results in the highest accuracy and lowest bias both for the total population and for age groups. The proposed method is also more robust regarding past growth.

The Demographic Constraints on Future Population Growth in Regional Australia

ABSTRACTConcern about rapid population growth in Australia's large cities and slower growth in many non-metropolitan areas has stimulated a range of government policies attempting to lift non-metropolitan growth rates. However, there is relatively little research on which to base these policies. It would be helpful to understand more about the consequences of current demographic trends continuing and the effects of alternative migration patterns. This paper presents sub-national population projections for Australia over the horizon 2011–2041, basing the projections on more socially meaningful Remoteness Areas instead of common statistical geographies. Three sets of projections were generated: a Current Direction scenario in which recent demographic trends are maintained, a Regional Immigration scenario in which more immigrants settle in regional and remote areas, and a Metro Exodus scenario in which there is increased internal migration from metropolitan to non-metropolitan areas. The future of Australia's population geography is shown to be one of spatially varying growth and population ageing, and continued metropolitanisation. In regional areas rapid population ageing will lower natural increase rates and thus reduce overall growth, resulting in a falling share of the national population. Policy measures attempting to increase the share of growth in regional areas will struggle against natural demographic forces operating in the opposite direction.

The impact of education-bound mobility on inter-regional migration age profiles in Australia

Research on internal migration age profiles is important for understanding the dynamics of a country’s population geography, creating accurate population estimates in non-census years, and smoothing migration age profiles for sub-national population projections. In the international literature, internal migration age profiles are often characterised as relatively stable over time and space, and consisting of gradual changes in migration intensities from one age to the next – as depicted by the widely-used model migration schedule. However, a few migration age profiles in Australia are known to exhibit highly age-specific ‘spikes’ related to movement to higher education institutions. This paper undertakes an investigation of inter-regional migration age profiles in Australia to determine the extent of the phenomenon. Data from the Australian 2011 Census are used to create inter-regional migration probabilities by single years of age, together with more specific probabilities describing university-bound and boarding school-bound migration. Migration age patterns at three spatial scales of region are examined. It is shown that university-bound age-specific spikes are present in the majority of regional in- and out-migration age profiles in Australia at either age 18 or 19. In many cases this results in the peak migration probability occurring at these ages. Boarding school-bound migration is less significant and present in a smaller proportion of regional migration age profiles. In preparing smoothed migration age profiles for sub-national population projections it is imperative to smooth out noise but retain these significant education-bound migration spikes. Further work is required to determine the optimum ways of smoothing these migration age profiles.

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Fertility Measurement Choice on Subnational Population Projections A Case Study of 47 Prefectures in Japan

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Fertility Measurement Choice on Subnational Population Projections A Case Study of 47 Prefectures in Japan

Quality of life.

British Journal of NursingVol. 21, No. Sup20a The Missing Link: The Key to Improved Wound AssessmentQuality of LifeJanice BianchiJanice BianchiSearch for more papers by this authorJanice BianchiPublished Online:20 Oct 2014https://doi.org/10.12968/bjon.2012.21.Sup20a.10AboutSectionsView articleView Full TextPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissions ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail View article References Bahr S, Mustafi N, Hattig P et al. (2011) Clinical efficacy of a new monofilament fibre-containing wound debridement product. J Wound Care 20(5):2 42–8 Link, Google ScholarGray D, Cooper P, Russell F, Stringfellow S (2011) Assessing the clinical performance of a new selective mechanical wound debridement product. Wounds UK 7(3) Google ScholarGreen J, Jester R (2009) Health related quality of life and chronic leg ulceration: part 1. Br J Community Nurs 14(12): S12-S17 Link, Google ScholarHamer C, Cullun N, Roe BH (1994) Patients’ perceptions of chronic leg ulcers. J Wound Care 3(2): 99–101 Link, Google ScholarJones J, Barr W, Robinson J, Carlisle C (2006) Depression in patients with chronic venous ulceration. Br J Nurs 15(11): S17-23 Link, Google ScholarOffice of National Statistics (2012) 2010-based subnational population projections for England. ONS, London. http://tinyurl.com/cercnk5 (accessed 6 August 2012) Google ScholarPosett J, Franks P (2007) The cost of ¡skin breakdown and ulceration in the UK. In: Pownall M (ed) Skin Breakdown: The Silent Epidemic. Smith and Nephew Foundation, Hull Google ScholarUpton D, Hender C (2012) The cost of mood disorders in patients with chronic wounds. Wounds UK 8(1): 107–9 Google ScholarVowden K, Vowden P (2011) Debridement Made Easy. Wounds UK 7(4) Google Scholar FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails 7 November 2012Volume 21Issue Sup20aISSN (print): 0966-0461ISSN (online): 2052-2819 Metrics History Published online 20 October 2014 Published in print 7 November 2012 Information© MA Healthcare LimitedPDF download

Lessons from stochastic small-area population projections: the case of Waikato subregions in New Zealand

Subnational population projections in New Zealand by means of the conventional deterministic cohort-component method have had a tendency to be conservative: underprojecting fast-growing populations and overprojecting slow-growing ones. In this paper we use a stochastic population projection method as an alternative. We generate population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand: Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. The results are compared to official subnational deterministic projections. The accuracy of subnational population projections in New Zealand is strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Differently from the standard cohort-component method, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our method are age-gender-area specific probabilistic net migration rates. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid-range’ scenario of subnational deterministic projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. We find that the projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Directions for further development of the methodology are suggested.

Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections

While population forecasters place considerable emphasis on the selection of appropriate migration assumptions, surprisingly little attention has been given to the effects on projection outcomes of the way internal migration is handled within population projection models. This paper compares population projections for Australia's states and territories prepared using ten different internal migration models but with identical assumptions for fertility, mortality and international migration and with the internal migration model parameters held constant. It is shown that the choice of migration model generates large differences in total population, geographical distribution and age-sex composition. It is argued that model choice should be guided by balancing model reality with practical utility and model performance is examined against these criteria. Of the ten models evaluated the authors argue that the migration pool, biregional, and biregional with net constraints models offer a good compromise between conceptual rigour and practicality. If the projected origin-destination flows are required then one of the versions of the standard multiregional model with reduced data inputs is preferred. The large variation in projection outputs points to the need for a better understanding of the spatio-temporal structure of migration in Australia.