We develop a theoretical model to predict the sublimation vapor pressure of pure substances. Moreover, we present a simple monoatomic molecule approximation, which reduces the complexity of the vapor pressure expression for polyatomic gaseous molecules at a convincing level of accuracy, with deviations of the Arrhenius prefactor for NaCl and NaF being 5.02% and 7.08%, respectively. The physical model is based on ab initio calculations, statistical mechanics, and thermodynamics. We illustrate the approach for Ni, Cr, Cu (metallic bond), NaCl, NaF, ZrO2 (ionic bond) and SiO2 (covalent bond). The results are compared against thermodynamic databases, which show high accuracy of our theoretical predictions, and the deviations of the predicted sublimation enthalpy are typically below 10%, for Cu even only 0.1%. Furthermore, the partial pressures caused by gas phase reactions are also explored, showing good agreement with experimental results.