Subjective Anticipation Research Articles

It’s Not A Lie If You Believe It: Lying and Belief Distortion Under Norm-Uncertainty

We experimentally investigate the mechanisms with which strategic distortion of individual beliefs about dominant norms of honesty arise. Embedded in the context of lying, we systematically vary both the nature of elicited beliefs (descriptive about what others do, or normative about what others approve of) and a subject's anticipation of an forthcoming lying opportunity at the belief-formation stage. We show that not all belief distortions are created equal and our empirical findings are consistent with the predictions of a dual-self model in which conditional norm-followers strategically distort their beliefs to justify self-serving behavior. Taken together, we show why, when, and what norm-relevant beliefs are strategically distorted and discuss the managerial implications of our findings.

Clinical improvement of vasovagal syncope in the absence of specific therapies: The Seinfeld effect.

Vasovagal syncope can persist for decades and recur sporadically but many patients appear to improve after being seen in specialty clinics. The absence of specific and proven effective therapy raises the possibility that this might be due to regression to the mean or to a placebo effect. However, analysis using the Poisson distribution indicates the extreme unlikeliness that regression to the mean is the explanation. A main cause of the placebo effect is expectancy. Subject expectancy is the influence of the subject's anticipation of benefit on outcomes, and observer expectancy is the influence of investigator or physician attitudes and behavior on subject response. Ample data support the role of expectancy in outcomes of syncope patients. Moreover, expectancy can vary depending on the type of ineffective intervention. Interestingly, studies in which patients are blinded but the investigator is not show similar patient benefits compared with completely open label studies consistent with a strong observer expectancy effect due to physician-subject interaction. These results suggest the paramount importance of properly conducted randomized clinical trials in assessing biomedical interventions, and also illuminate the powerful potential of studies aimed at enhancing the expectancy effect on patient outcome.

Attentional modulation in visual cortex depends on task timing

Paying attention to a stimulus selectively increases the ability to process it. For example, when subjects attend to a specific region of a visual scene, their sensitivity to changes at that location increases. A large number of studies describe the behavioural consequences and neurophysiological correlates of attending to spatial locations. There has, in contrast, been little study of the allocation of attention over time. Because subjects can anticipate predictable events with great temporal precision, it seems probable that they might dynamically shift their attention when performing a familiar perceptual task whose constraints changed over time. We trained monkeys to respond to a stimulus change where the probability of occurrence changed over time. Recording from area V4 of the visual cortex in these animals, we found that the modulation of neuronal responses changed according to the probability of the change occurring at that instant. Thus, we show that the attentional modulation of sensory neurons reflects a subject's anticipation of the timing of behaviourally relevant events.

Fast habituation of the long-latency auditory evoked potential in the awake albino rat

Fast habituation of the long-latency, vertex-recorded auditory evoked potential (AEP) peaks in humans was first described by Callaway (1973) as a reduction in AEP amplitude that occurs to the second of a pair of acoustic stimuli when both stimuli are presented with an interstimulus interval (ISI) of no more than 10 sec. When acoustic stimuli are presented in pairs with an ISI of 2 sec and an interpair interval (IPI) of approximately 10 sec, reduction in amplitude to the second tone occurs by as much as 30–50%. Fast habituation may depend somewhat on a subject's anticipation of the stimulus and on other factors related to attention and orienting. Studies in our laboratory have demonstrated this amplitude decrement to the second tone of a pair in human infants, children and adults and have explored the implications of this finding with respect to attentional processes and the allocation of cerebral resources. In the present investigation we describe an animal model of fast habituation. Here, vertex-recorded AEPs were obtained to paired tone stimuli delivered to awake adult male Sprague-Dawley rats chronically implanted with skull electrodes. Findings showed: (a) an AEP wave form with 8 distinct peaks, (b) for one component there was a marked decrement in amplitude from tone 1 to tone 2 in recordings obtained from an electrode placed slightly to the right of midline, and (c) that there were no significant differences in peak latencies across tones. This methodology may further our understanding of fast habituation in humans and may prove useful for studies of attention, orienting, and resource allocation using techniques that are not possible for use with human subjects.

Psychosocial factors and disease bias in breast cancer patients.

The personality patterns of cancer patients as found in retrospective case-control studies are often suspected to be consequences of the disease. In this study an attempt was made to remove the bias arising from the disease itself by taking into account two indicator variables for the subject's anticipation of the subsequently established diagnosis. Seventy-five women with breast cancer were compared to 75 benign controls, matched in pairs for age and "reason for consultation" (the first indicator). Relative risks of 14 psychosocial scales were estimated in turn by logistic regression analysis for matched sets. The analysis showed 13 scales being positively or negatively related to cancer risk in accordance with the hypotheses. After adjusting for "fear of breast cancer" (the second indicator), five scales showed a significant association. In a previous report on this study, neither indicator variable was accounted for and the associations were generally found to be weaker, suggesting that they were masked by the malignant and benign subjects' differences in their degree of anticipation of a cancer diagnosis. As there were no a priori hypotheses regarding these indicator variables, the statistical significance of the results should be treated with caution.