Jet Stream Research Articles

How do model biases affect large-scale teleconnections that control Southwest US precipitation? Part II: seasonal models

Abstract We explore the skill in predicting Southwest United States (SWUS) October to March precipitation and associated large-scale teleconnections in an ensemble of hindcasts from seasonal prediction systems. We identify key model biases that degrade the models’ capability to predict SWUS precipitation. The subtropical jet in the Pacific sector is generally too zonal and elongated. This is reflected in the models’ North Pacific ENSO teleconnections that are generally too weak with exaggerated northwest-southeast tilt, compared to observations. Also, the models are too dependent on tropical, El Niño-like, wave train anomalies for producing high seasonal SWUS precipitation, when in observations there is a larger influence of zonal Rossby wave trains such as the one observed in 2016/17. Overall, this is consistent with biases in the basic flow inducing errors in the propagation of zonal wave trains in the North Pacific, which affects SWUS precipitation downstream. Although higher skill may be gained from reducing mean flow biases in the models, a case study of the 2016/17 winter illustrates the great challenge behind skillful seasonal prediction of SWUS precipitation. Unsurprisingly, the almost record-breaking precipitation observed that year in the absence of ENSO is not predicted in the hindcasts, and model perturbation experiments suggest that even a perfect prediction of tropical sea surface temperature and tropical atmospheric variability would not have sufficed to produce a reasonable seasonal precipitation prediction. On a more positive note, our perturbation experiments suggest a potential role for Arctic variability that supports findings from prior studies and suggests re-examining high-latitude drivers of SWUS precipitation.

Processes Driving the Intermodel Spread of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation Expansion in CMIP6 Models

AbstractThe Hadley circulation (HC) has been expanding poleward in recent decades. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models predict that the expansion will accelerate in the future, more so in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). However, the extent of the expansion varies widely among the models. We investigate the mechanisms driving the intermodel spread in SH HC expansion predictions. The intermodel spread is obtained by an empirical orthogonal function analysis on the SH HC trend patterns of 16 CMIP6 model simulations using the historical and shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 scenarios. The leading mode, showing a mean meridional stream function anomaly at the poleward SH HC extent, explains 49.73% of the variance and significantly correlates (r = 0.94) with the SH HC expansion. By analyzing the extended Kuo‐Eliassen equation, we find that the intermodel difference in the representation of diabatic heating is responsible for about 14% of the intermodel spread. The meridional eddy momentum and heat fluxes contribute to about 21% and 18% of the intermodel spread, respectively. The models simulating a relatively large SH HC expansion tend to show increased precipitation in the Southern Pacific Convergence Zone, reduced baroclinic instability in the subtropics, and an enhanced poleward shift of jet stream in the midlatitudes. This suggests that the uncertainty in the HC projection may be constrained by reducing the bias in the trend of the mean fields.

Exact planetary waves and jet streams

We investigate exact nonlinear waves on surfaces locally approximating the rotating sphere for two-dimensional inviscid incompressible flow. Our first system corresponds to a $\beta$ -plane approximation at the equator, and the second to a $\gamma$ approximation, with the latter describing flow near the poles. We find exact wave solutions in the Lagrangian reference frame that cannot be written down in closed form in the Eulerian reference frame. The wave particle trajectories, contours of potential vorticity and Lagrangian mean velocity take relatively simple forms. The waves possess a non-trivial Lagrangian mean flow that depends on the amplitude of the waves and on a particle label that characterizes values of constant potential vorticity. The mean flow arises due to potential vorticity conservation on fluid particles. Solutions over the entire space are generated by assuming that the flow far from the origin is zonal and there is a region of uniform potential vorticity between this zonal flow and the waves. In the $\gamma$ approximation, a class of waves is found that, based on analogous solutions on the plane, we call Ptolemaic vortex waves. The mean flow of some of these waves, which we can describe in highly nonlinear scenarios due to the exact nature of the solutions, resembles polar jet streams. Several illustrative solutions are used as initial conditions in the fully spherical rotating Navier–Stokes equations, where integration is performed via the numerical scheme presented in Salmon & Pizzo (Atmosphere, vol. 14, issue 4, 2023, 747). The potential vorticity contours found from these numerical experiments vary between stable permanent progressive form and fully turbulent flows generated by wave breaking.

Fast-get-faster explains wavier upper-level jet stream under climate change

Earth’s upper-level jet streams primarily flow in the eastward direction. They often exhibit a north-south component or waviness connected to extreme weather at the surface. Recently the upper-level eastward jet stream was found to exhibit a fast-get-faster response under climate change explained by the impact of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relation on the latitudinal density contrast. Here we show the fast-get-faster mechanism also applies to the upper-level north-south jet stream wind and the longitudinal density contrast, implying increased waviness under climate change. Arctic Sea ice loss, which has been proposed as a driver of increased waviness, cannot explain the response. It leads to a fast-get-slower waviness response at all vertical levels. We demonstrate the fast-get-faster waviness signal has emerged in reanalysis data in the Southern Hemisphere but not yet in the Northern Hemisphere. The results show the fast-get-faster mechanism explains upper-level waviness changes and highlights a tug of war between upper- and mid-level waviness under climate change.

How Do Forecast Model Biases Affect Large-Scale Teleconnections That Control Southwest U.S. Precipitation? Part I: S2S Models

Abstract We analyze biases in subseasonal forecast models and their effect on Southwest United States (SWUS) precipitation prediction (2–6-week time scale). Cluster analyses identify three primary wave trains associated with SWUS precipitation: a meridional El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–type wave train, an arching Pacific–North American (PNA)–type wave train, and a circumglobal zonal wave train. Compared to reanalysis, the models overrepresent the arching pattern, underrepresent the zonal pattern, and produce mixed results for the meridional pattern. The arching pattern overrepresentation is linked to model mean flow biases in the midlatitude–subpolar North Pacific, which cause a westward retraction of the region of forbidden linear Rossby wave propagation. The zonal pattern underrepresentation is linked to westerly biases in the subtropical jet, which cause a westward retraction of the waveguide in the midlatitude eastern North Pacific and divert wave trains southward. These results are confirmed using linear, barotropic ray-tracing analysis. In addition to mean state biases, the models also contain errors in their representation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Tropical convection anomalies associated with the MJO are too weak and incoherent at lead times greater than 2 weeks when compared to reanalysis. Additionally, there is a strong SWUS precipitation signal as far out as 5 weeks after a strong MJO in reanalysis, associated with its persistent eastward propagation, but this signal is absent in the models. Our results indicate that there is still significant room for improvement in subseasonal predictions if we can reduce model biases in the background flow and improve the representation of the MJO.

Atmospheric Circulation on Other Planets: Venus, Mars, Jupiter

Abstract. This review provides a comparative analysis of atmospheric circulation across four planets in our solar system: Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Earth. By examining the unique characteristics of each planet, including atmospheric composition, rotation rates, axial tilt, and solar radiation, the study explores how these factors influence the dynamics of their respective atmospheres. Venus, with its dense CO atmosphere and slow retrograde rotation, exhibits a super-rotating atmosphere leading to extreme and uniform climate conditions. Marss thin atmosphere and significant seasonal variations, combined with global dust storms, result in highly variable and dynamic atmospheric patterns. Jupiters rapid rotation and internal heat contribute to complex and powerful atmospheric dynamics, including strong jet streams and long-lasting storms like the Great Red Spot. In contrast, Earth's atmospheric circulation is driven by a combination of solar radiation, rotation, and the presence of oceans and continents, resulting in relatively stable and predictable weather patterns. The study highlights the diversity of atmospheric processes within our solar system, providing insights that are crucial for understanding planetary climates and assessing the potential habitability of exoplanets.

Interdecadal Variations in the Seasonal Cycle of Explosive Growth of Southern Hemisphere Storms with Impacts on Southern Australian Rainfall

Interdecadal variations, since the middle of the 20th century, in the seasonal cycle of Southern Hemisphere extratropical synoptic scale weather systems, are studied and related to associated anomalies in Southern Australian rainfall over south-west Western Australia (SWWA) and southeast Australia (SEA). A data-driven method is employed in which atmospheric fluctuations, specified from 6-hourly lower-tropospheric reanalysis data, are spectrally analysed in space and time to determine the statistics of the intensity and growth rates of growing and decaying eddies. Extratropical storms, blocking and north-west cloud band weather types are investigated in two frequency bands, with periods less than 4 days and between 4 and 8 days, and in three growth rate and three decay rate bins. Southern Australian rainfall variability is found to be most related to changes in explosive storms particularly in autumn and winter. During the first 10 years of the Australian Millennium Drought (AMD), from 1997 to 2006, dramatic changes in rainfall and storminess occurred. Rainfall declines ensued over SEA in all seasons, associated with corresponding reductions in the intensity of fast-growing storms with periods less than 4 days. These changes, compared with the 20-year timespans of 1949 to 1968 and 1975 to 1994, also took place for the longer duration of 1997 to 2016, apart from summer. Over SWWA, autumn and winter rainfall totals have decreased systematically with time for each of the 10-year and 20-year timespans analysed. Southern Australian rainfall variability is also found to be closely related to the local, hemispheric or global features of the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans that we characterise by indices. Local circulation indices of sea level pressure and 700 hPa zonal winds are good predictors of SWWA and SEA annual rainfall variability particularly in autumn and winter with vertical velocity generally less so. The new Subtropical Atmospheric Jet (SAJ) and the Southern Ocean Regional Dipole (SORD) indices are found to be the most skilful non-local predictors of cool season SWWA rainfall variability on annual and decadal timescales. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are the strongest non-local predictors of SEA annual rainfall variability from autumn through to late spring, while on the decadal timescale, different indices dominate for different 3-month periods.

Persistent Summer North Atlantic Jet Variability: Dynamical Feedbacks and Model‐Observation Discrepancies

AbstractPersistent fluctuations in the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic (NATL) jet stream are closely linked to extreme weather anomalies, particularly over Europe. Accurately representing jet stream persistence in climate models is essential for enhancing the reliability of future regional extreme weather projections. This study investigates the summer persistence of the NATL jet stream latitudinal fluctuations and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) using data from CMIP6 models and ERA5 reanalysis. Our findings reveal that CMIP6 models generally overestimate persistence compared to ERA5 during the historical period. Utilizing the relative vorticity tendency equation, we assess the strength of the eddy‐mean flow feedback and identify a positive relationship between persistence and feedback strength across models. We also found that a large fraction of the intermodel spread in precipitation persistence is associated with differences in the persistence of jet fluctuations.

Do Seasonality and Latitude Dictate the Formation of Strong or Weak Volcanic Eruption Plumes?

AbstractIn this study, we propose a method to predict the classification of the eruption plume types: “strong plumes” and “weak plumes”. Our method reproduces the general features that the eruption plume types depend on, both the meteorological conditions and eruption conditions, and successfully reproduces the classification of the plume types for historical eruption events. Application of the method to Monte Carlo simulations revealed that eruption plumes at a low latitude tend to form strong plumes due to weak ambient winds, whereas eruption plumes at a mid latitude tend to form weak plumes due to the strong ambient winds associated with the jet stream. The simulation also revealed that mid‐latitude eruption plumes tend to be strong plumes in the summer when ambient winds are lowered by a weakening and poleward movement of the jet stream.

The Inter‐Hemispheric Oscillation of Atmospheric Mass on Synoptic Timescale in Boreal Winter and Its Association With Rossby Waves

AbstractThe atmospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere interacts with that in the southern hemisphere mainly via lateral coupling and atmospheric mass exchanges across equator. Using the NCEP‐NCAR daily reanalysis over period 1979–2019, we examine the Inter‐Hemispheric Oscillation (IHO) on the synoptic timescale during boreal winter and its associations with Rossby waves by employing a 9‐day high‐pass filter and the time‐lag regression method. Our results demonstrate that the IHO exist in the surface air pressure anomalies on synoptic timescale which links to both the quasi‐stationary and migratory Rossby waves with large amplitudes in the mid‐ and high‐ latitudes from the troposphere up to the stratosphere. The synoptic‐IHO related quasi‐stationary waves appear mainly in zonal, roughly dominated by waves with wave‐number 1–7 at different latitudes. These waves disperse the wave energy eastward along westerly jet streams. On the other hand, the synoptic‐IHO related migratory Rossby waves are mainly observed in mid latitudes between 30°N–65°N and 30°S–60°S with stronger intensity in northern than in southern hemisphere. The phase speed of these waves is roughly estimated at about 9.5lon/d. The energy of intrinsic Rossby waves also propagates mainly eastward. The synoptic‐IHO has important impacts on surface air temperature via both the quasi‐stationary and migratory Rossby waves, inducing significant temperature changes over both Eurasian continent and North America as estimated from 40 winters. All the results are beneficial for us to better understand the IHO along with its interaction with Rossby waves and the formation mechanisms of cold weather and climate extremes during boreal winter.

Resonant Forcing by Solar Declination of Rossby Waves at the Tropopause and Implications in Extreme Precipitation Events and Heat Waves—Part 2: Case Studies, Projections in the Context of Climate Change

Based on the properties of Rossby waves at the tropopause resonantly forced by solar declination in harmonic modes, which was the subject of a first article, case studies of heatwaves and extreme precipitation events are presented. They clearly demonstrate that extreme events only form under specific patterns of the amplitude of the speed of modulated airflows of Rossby waves at the tropopause, in particular period ranges. This remains true even if extreme events appear as compound events where chaos and timing are crucial. Extreme events are favored when modulated cold and warm airflows result in a dual cyclone-anticyclone system, i.e., the association of two joint vortices of opposite signs. They reverse over a period of the dominant harmonic mode in spatial and temporal coherence with the modulated airflow speed pattern. This key role could result from a transfer of humid/dry air between the two vortices during the inversion of the dual system. Finally, focusing on the two period ranges 17.1–34.2 and 8.56–17.1 days corresponding to 1/16- and 1/32-year period harmonic modes, projections of the amplitude of wind speed at 250 mb, geopotential height at 500 mb, ground air temperature, and precipitation rate are performed by extrapolating their amplitude observed from January 1979 to March 2024. Projected amplitudes are regionalized on a global scale for warmest and coldest half-years, referring to extratropical latitudes. Causal relationships are established between the projected amplitudes of modulated airflow speed and those of ground air temperature and precipitation rate, whether they increase or decrease. The increase in the amplitude of modulated airflow speed of polar vortices induces their latitudinal extension. This produces a tightening of Rossby waves embedded in the polar and subtropical jet streams. In the context of climate change, this has the effect of increasing the efficiency of the resonant forcing of Rossby waves from the solar declination, the optimum of which is located at mid-latitudes. Hence the increased or decreased vulnerability to heatwaves or extreme precipitation events of some regions. Europe and western Asia are particularly affected, which is due to increased activity of the Arctic polar vortex between longitudes 20° W and 40° E. This is likely a consequence of melting ice and changing albedo, which appears to amplify the amplitude of variation in the period range 17.1–34.2 days of poleward circulation at the tropopause of the Arctic polar cell.

Spatio-temporal averaging of jets obscures the reinforcement of baroclinicity by latent heating

Abstract. Latent heating modifies the jet stream by modifying the vertical geostrophic wind shear, thereby altering the potential for baroclinic development. Hence, correctly representing diabatic effects is important for modelling the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation and variability. However, the direct effects of diabatic heating remain poorly understood. For example, there is no consensus on the effect of latent heating on the cross-jet temperature contrast. We show that this disagreement is attributable to the choice of spatio-temporal averaging. Jet representations relying on averaged wind tend to have the strongest latent heating on the cold flank of the jet, thus weakening the cross-jet temperature contrast. In contrast, jet representations reflecting the two-dimensional instantaneous wind field have the strongest latent heating on the warm flank of the jet. Furthermore, we show that latent heating primarily occurs on the warm flank of poleward directed instantaneous jets, which is the case for all storm tracks and seasons.

Statistical Characteristics of Snowfall on the Tibetan Plateau Affected by TCs Over the Bay of Bengal: An Observational Analysis

ABSTRACTIn this study, the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) that affect snowfall on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and spatiotemporal distribution of snowfall related to BoB TCs are statistically analysed by using multi‐sources data from 1981 to 2020, with partitioning TC‐influenced snowfall by tracking cloud clusters. The results show that 141 TCs formed during the 40‐year period of 1981–2020, of which about 35% (50 TCs) impacted snowfall at 83% of meteorological stations on the TP during their northward or westward movement, and the average distance between the TC centre and the snowfall stations is 1277 km. The proportion of snowfall‐related TC frequency shows a significantly decreasing trend with a predominant cycle of 10a. The TC‐influenced snowfall frequency (SF), precipitation amount (PA) on a snowfall day and snow depth (SD) during 1981–2020 all show a non‐significant weak decreasing trend, while TC‐influenced snowfall is significantly increased in the eastern and southern edges of Xizang, western Sichuan and the southern margin of Qinghai. PA and SD in December account for more than 75% and 55% of the monthly total, respectively. The spatial pattern of PA could be objectively categorised into west‐type (24%) and southeast‐type (76%). The moisture transported by the BoB TC and a southerly jet stream formed between the trough and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the convergence of cold air and warm–moist airstream over the TP and the change in position of the south Asian high in the upper troposphere are significant factors causing the different spatial distribution. The results can provide reference for TC‐related snowfall, SD prediction and disaster assessment on the TP.

Upstream influence of midlatitude jet stream biases in boreal summer

AbstractClimate models exhibit biases in the mean state and in variability across different regions of the Earth. For example, atmosphere‐only models have a poleward bias in summertime jet streams across the Northern Hemisphere (NH). This can result from many processes, including misrepresentation of Rossby waves that can propagate in different directions and thereby interact with jet streams. However, Rossby‐wave biases can result from biased background state of the climate system as well. The propagation speed of Rossby waves depends on jet stream strength, thus a poleward displacement of the jet stream can hinder westward propagation of Rossby waves at higher latitudes and displace eastward propagating Rossby waves (downstream development). These biases then impact other regions resulting in biased atmospheric circulation across the NH. Indeed, in this study we confirm this via regional nudging experiments within the Norwegian Earth System Model. Namely, nudged horizontal winds over the North Pacific can improve Rossby wave statistics and thereby atmospheric circulation over Eurasia (i.e., upstream). However, nudging over the North Atlantic has little effect on boreal summer atmospheric circulation. This implies that improving biases over the North Pacific is crucial for a better representation of modelled boreal summer circulation over Eurasia.

Characteristic analysis of India-Burma trough events and its impact on winter precipitation in South and East Asia: Based on objective identification

Abstract During the boreal winter, the India-Burma trough (IBT), a shortwave trough system primarily positioned over the northern Bay of Bengal, exerts a significant synoptic scale variation and impact on precipitation in South and East Asia. This study utilizes the 6-hourly ERA5 dataset to objectively identify and track 714 IBT events from 1981 to 2019. On average, IBT occurred about 54.7 days per year, with an average of 18.3 events annually and lasting around 2.5 days. IBT events are classified into two types: local and eastward-moving. Local IBTs manifest in the middle and lower troposphere with a vertical temperature structure of warm-over-cold, whereas the signals of the eastward-moving IBTs extend from the lower to the upper troposphere, exhibiting cold anomalies vertically. The impacts on winter precipitation in South and East Asia differ significantly between these two IBT types. Local IBTs are primarily linked with the eastward propagation of wave disturbances along the subtropical westerly jet, while eastward-moving IBTs are associated with robust disturbance sources from mid-high latitudes and jointly modulated by the consequent eastward propagation of Rossby wave trains along northern and southern branches of the westerly jet streams. Precipitation anomalies during local IBTs are typically positive (negative) in the Indochina Peninsula and southwestern China (Indian Peninsula), whereas eastward-moving IBTs correlate with more intense and widespread precipitation in South and East Asia, with a pronounced band of anomalies from the Indochina Peninsula to southern China.

Inter-Model Spread in Representing the Impacts of ENSO on the South China Spring Rainfall in CMIP6 Models

A major challenge for climate system models in simulating the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variations of East Asian rainfall anomalies is the wide inter-model spread of outputs, which causes considerable uncertainty in physical mechanism understanding and short-term climate prediction. This study investigates the fidelity of 40 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in representing the impacts of ENSO on South China Spring Rainfall (SCSR) during the ENSO decaying spring. The response of SCSR to ENSO, as well as the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), is quite different among the models; some models even simulate opposite SCSR anomalies compared to the observations. However, the models capturing the ENSO-related warm SSTAs over TIO tend to simulate a better SCSR-ENSO relationship, which is much closer to observation. Therefore, models are grouped based on the simulated TIO SSTAs to explore the modulating processes of the TIO SSTAs in ENSO affecting SCSR anomalies. Comparing analysis suggests that the warm TIO SSTA can force the equatorial north–south antisymmetric circulation in the lower troposphere, which is conducive to the westward extension and maintenance of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC). In addition, the TIO SSTA enhances the upper tropospheric East Asian subtropical westerly jet, leading to anomalous divergence over South China. Thus, the westward extension and strengthening of WNPAC can transport sufficient water vapor for South China, which is associated with the ascending motion caused by the upper tropospheric divergence, leading to the abnormal SCSR.

A novel method for detecting tropopause structures based on the bi-Gaussian function

Abstract. The tropopause is an important transition layer and can be a diagnostic of upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric structures, exhibiting unique atmospheric thermal and dynamic characteristics. A comprehensive understanding of the evolution of fine tropopause structures is necessary and primary for the further study of complex multi-scale atmospheric physical–chemical coupling processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. A novel method utilizing the bi-Gaussian function is capable of identifying the characteristic parameters of vertical tropopause structures and providing information on double-tropopause (DT) structures. The new method improves the definition of the cold-point tropopause and detects one (or two) of the most significant local cold points by fitting the temperature profiles to the bi-Gaussian function, which defines the point(s) as the tropopause height(s). The bi-Gaussian function exhibits excellent potential for explicating the variation trends of temperature profiles. The results of the bi-Gaussian method and lapse rate tropopause, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization, are compared in detail for different cases. Results indicate that the bi-Gaussian method is able to more stably and obviously identify the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the thermal tropopauses, even in the presence of multiple temperature inversion layers at higher elevations. Moreover, 5 years of historical radiosonde data from China (from 2012 to 2016) revealed that the occurrence frequency and thickness of the DT, as well as the single-tropopause height and the first and second DT heights, displayed significant meridional monotonic variations. The occurrence frequency (thickness) of the DT increased from 1.07 % (1.96 km) to 47.19 % (5.42 km) in the latitude range of 16–50° N. The meridional gradients of tropopause height were relatively large in the latitude range of 30–40° N, essentially corresponding to the climatological locations of the subtropical jet and the Tibetan Plateau.

Impact of stochastic physics on the representation of atmospheric blocking in EC-Earth3

Abstract. Atmospheric blocking is a synoptic-scale phenomenon that consists in an obstruction of the normal easterly progression of weather patterns in the midlatitudes, leading to persistent atmospheric conditions sometimes associated with extreme weather. State-of-the-art climate models systematically underestimate winter atmospheric-blocking frequency, especially over Europe. This is often attributed to a poor representation of small-scale processes that are fundamental for the onset and maintenance of blocking events. Here, we explore how the implementation of two stochastic parameterizations, namely the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPTs) and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) schemes, influences the representation of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking in EC-Earth3. We show that the activation of the two stochastic schemes has moderate detrimental effects on blocking representation, when assessed through a gradient reversal index. Using a zonal–blocked flow linear decomposition, we attribute such modification to changes in the mean winter atmospheric circulation, primarily manifested in a strengthening of the midlatitude jet stream and an intensification of the Hadley cell. Ultimately, an analysis of the meridional transport of zonal momentum by stationary and transient eddies reveals that these circulation differences arise from changes in tropical stationary-eddy activity. Our findings reconnect with earlier literature on similar experiments and suggest that the activation of stochastic parameterizations may require a retuning of the model to account for the resulting significant changes in the mean atmospheric circulation.

The origins of Storm Ciarán: From diabatic Rossby wave to warm‐seclusion cyclone with a sting jet

AbstractThe evolution of Storm Ciarán was different from what is commonly attributed to windstorms affecting northwest Europe. Ciarán initially developed as a diabatic Rossby wave, driven by low‐level latent heat release and with negligible upper tropospheric forcing. It then crossed the jet stream, intensifying explosively while developing a low‐level warm seclusion and producing extreme near‐surface winds, including sting jets. Ciarán is an example of an extreme windstorm following this pathway and highlights the need of a systematic assessment of its relevance in our warming climate.

Traffic Bottlenecks: Predicting Atmospheric Blocking With a Diminishing Flow Capacity

AbstractAtmospheric blocking is characterized by persistent anticyclones that “block” the midlatitude jet stream, causing temperature and precipitation extremes. The traffic jam theory posits that blocking events occur when the Local Wave Activity flux, a measure of storm activity, exceeds the carrying capacity of the jet stream, leading to a pile up. The theory's efficacy for prediction is tested with atmospheric reanalysis by defining “exceedance events”, the time and location where wave activity first exceeds flow capacity. The theory captures the Northern Hemisphere winter blocking climatology, with strong spatial correlation between exceedance and blocking events. Both events are favored not only by low carrying capacity (narrow roads), but also a downstream reduction in capacity (lane closures causing a bottleneck). The theory fails, however, to accurately predict blocking events in time. Exceedance events are not a useful predictor of an imminent block, suggesting that confounding factors explain their shared climatological structure.