Subpolar Gyre Strength Research Articles

The North Atlantic subpolar ocean dynamics during the past 21,000 years

Numerous studies have suggested that the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and Arctic sea ice impact the polar and global climate. Here, we use a fully linked atmosphere-ocean-sea ice Earth system model to investigate the North Atlantic subpolar ocean dynamics over the last 21 thousand years before the present (ka). We found that the SPG strength, net ocean surface heat flux, and mixed layer depth in the North Atlantic deep convection sites declined during the Heinrich 1 (H1; ∼19–17 ka) and Younger Dryas (YD; ∼12.9–11.3 ka) cold events. Consequently, the deep convection and AMOC strength declined, reducing the northward meridional heat transport and causing the expansion of Atlantic sea ice coverage. We also found that the North Atlantic subpolar net ocean surface heat flux varied coherently with AMOC strength throughout the past 21 ka. Subsequently, we observed a sea ice-capping mechanism wherein an increase (decrease) in Atlantic sea ice coverage during H1/YD (Bølling-Allerød (BA; ∼17–14.35 ka)) reduces (increases) net ocean surface heat flux and deep convection, thereby influencing the AMOC strength. Meanwhile, the SPG and AMOC strengths have been in-phase throughout the past 21 ka, except during the abrupt termination and input of freshwater flux during the BA and Meltwater Pulse 1 A (∼14.4–13.9 ka) events, respectively. In conclusion, our study suggests that a sudden shift in freshwater discharge into the subpolar North Atlantic may disturb the polar ocean dynamics.

Subpolar Gyre – AMOC – Atmosphere Interactions on Multidecadal Timescales in a Version of the Kiel Climate Model

AbstractThere is a controversy about the nature of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic (NA) region, concerning the roles of ocean circulation and atmosphere-ocean coupling. Here we describe NA multidecadal variability from a version of the Kiel Climate Model, in which both subpolar gyre (SPG)-Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and atmosphere-ocean coupling are essential. The oceanic barotropic and meridional overturning streamfunctions, and sea level pressure are jointly analyzed to derive the leading mode of Atlantic sector variability. This mode accounting for 23.7 % of the total combined variance is oscillatory with an irregular periodicity of 25-50 years and an e-folding time of about a decade. SPG and AMOC mutually influence each other and together provide the delayed negative feedback necessary for maintaining the oscillation. An anomalously strong SPG, for example, drives higher surface salinity and density in the NA’s sinking region. In response, oceanic deep convection and AMOC intensify, which, with a time delay of about a decade, reduces SPG strength by enhancing upper-ocean heat content. The weaker gyre leads to lower surface salinity and density in the sinking region, which reduces deep convection and eventually AMOC strength. There is a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback between the sea surface temperature and low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Greenland area, with related wind stress changes reinforcing SPG changes, thereby maintaining the (damped) multidecadal oscillation against dissipation. Stochastic surface heat-flux forcing associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation drives the eigenmode.

Holocene shifts in sub-surface water circulation of the North-East Atlantic inferred from Nd isotopic composition in cold-water corals

Variations of the Sub-Polar Gyre (SPG) and the Sub-Tropical Gyre (STG) circulation during the Holocene are believed to be related to regional and global climate over this time period. To improve our understanding of these phenomena we provide new constraints on variations in surface circulation patterns using neodymium isotopes (εNd) on precisely U-Th dated coral fragments of L. pertusa. The fragments were retrieved from two sediment cores taken from cold-water coral (CWC) mounds at ~ 127–134 m water depth in the Mingulay Reef Complex located on the Western British continental shelf. The results have been combined with εNd analyzed on seawater samples from two stations located on the continental shelf and margin in order to establish whether εNd is a reliable proxy of the ocean circulation variations and notably of the relative contribution of water originating from the SPG and STG. εNd values in CWCs from the Mingulay Reef Complex range from −14.5 ± 0.4 to −11.8 ± 0.3, highlighting two major variations. Unradiogenic εNd values (−14.5 ± 0.4) indicate a higher contribution of water from the SPG around 2.8 ka. Conversely, more radiogenic values at 3.4 ka (−11.8 ± 0.3) point to a declining SPG strength, accompanied by stronger northward penetration of STG water along the western European margin transported by the Shelf Edge Current (SEC) and/or cooler and fresher waters from the interior Seas. The eastward extension of the SPG at 2.8 ka is associated with lower 14C reservoir age (200 yrs) compared to periods associated with a higher contribution of STG waters. This indicates that 14C reservoir ages are mainly a function of vertical mixing of the sub-surface of the ocean. As stronger vertical ventilation is not associated with a higher proportion of local radiogenic surface water, we hypothesize it could represent vertical ventilation in the North-Eastern Atlantic. Active SPG is associated with a better ventilation of the water masses within the SPG and warmer climatic conditions in Northern Europe and in the Eastern Norwegian Sea linked to an intensification of the surface limb of the AMOC.

Assessing variability in the size and strength of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

AbstractRecent studies on the size and strength of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) offer contrasting assessments of the gyre's temporal variability: studies that use empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of satellite sea‐surface height (SSH) report a rapid decline in SPG size and strength since 1992 (∼20% per decade), while concurrent in situ observations report either no trend or a slight decline. Here we investigate this discrepancy by analyzing the size and strength of the SPG with satellite SSH from 1993 to 2015 with two separate methods: indirectly via EOF analysis and more directly through measurements of the gyre center and boundary. We define the boundary of the gyre as the largest closed contour of SSH, the center as the minimum SSH, and the strength as the difference between the SSH at the boundary and the center. We identify a linear decline over the study period in the SPG strength (5.1% per decade), but find no statistically significant trend in the SPG area. The trend in the gyre strength is weaker than the EOF‐based trend and is most likely below the level of detection of the in situ measurements. We conclude that the variability previously identified as a sharp decline in SPG circulation can be more appropriately attributed to basin‐wide sea level rise during the satellite altimetry period. In addition, we find that the properties of the eastern SPG do not covary with the SPG size, suggesting that SPG dynamics do not control the strength of the intergyre throughput.

A last millennium perspective on North Atlantic variability: exploiting synergies between models and proxy data

The North Atlantic is a key region for decadal prediction as it has experienced significant multi-decadal variability over the observed period. This variability, which is thought to be intrinsic to the region, can potentially modulate, either by amplifying or mitigating, the global warming signal from anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. For example, studies suggest that the North Atlantic contributed to the recent hiatus period between 1998 and 2012, by triggering an atmospheric response which impacted on the eastern tropical Pacific (e.g. McGregor et al., 2014). The subpolar North Atlantic is also a major CO2 sink, and therefore of great importance for the global carbon cycle (Perez et al., 2013). One of the key players in the North Atlantic region is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is associated with sinking due to deep water formation in the Labrador and Nordic Seas. The AMOC is the primary control of the poleward heat transport in the Atlantic region. Therefore, the AMOC is associated with important climate impacts, and plays an active role in various feedback mechanisms with, for example, sea ice (Mahajan et al., 2011) and the atmospheric circulation (Gastineau and Frankignoul, 2012). The AMOC has exhibited abrupt variations in the past (e.g. the last glacial period, Rahmstorf, 2002) and could experience a major slowdown in the future due to the combined effect of surface warming and Greenland ice sheet melting on deep water formation (Bakker et al., 2016). The possibility of such a shutdown has stimulated considerable international efforts to observe and reconstruct the past AMOC changes. Only by understanding its natural variability will we be able to detect and anticipate an anthropogenic impact on the AMOC. Decadal modulations are also found in other large-scale modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Stephenson et al., 2000), the Subpolar Gyre strength (SPG) (Hakkinen and Rhines, 2004) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) (Enfield et al., 2001), which have all been linked with widespread climate impacts over the surrounding continents. Modelling studies suggest that all these modes interact with the AMOC (Gastineau and Frankignoul, 2012; Hatun et al., 2005; Knight et al., 2005) but the exact interrelationships are complex and remain to be disentangled. Also to be determined are the underlying mechanisms responsible for the decadal and centennial AMOC modulations, with different climate models showing different key drivers (Menary et al., 2015a). Similarly, the exact impact of the natural external forcings (e.g. volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance) on the variability of these different largescale climate modes still remains unclear.

Sea surface temperature variability in the Norwegian Sea during the late Pliocene linked to subpolar gyre strength and radiative forcing

The mid-Piacenzian warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) of the Pliocene epoch has been proposed as a possible reference for future warm climate states. However, there is significant disagreement over the magnitude of high latitude warming between data and models for this period of time, raising questions about the driving mechanisms and responsible feedbacks. We have developed a new set of orbital-resolution alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SST) and ice rafted debris (IRD) records from the Norwegian Sea spanning 3.264–3.14 Ma. The SSTs in the Norwegian Sea were 2–3 °C warmer than the Holocene average, likely caused by the radiative effect of higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. There is notable obliquity-driven SST variability with a range of 4 °C, shown by evolutive spectra. The correlation of SST variability with the presence of IRD suggests a common climate forcing acting across the Nordic Seas region. Changes of the SST gradient between the Norwegian Sea and North Atlantic sites suggest that the subpolar gyre was at least as strong as during the Holocene, and that the northward heat transport by the North Atlantic Current was comparable.

Stochastically-forced multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a model study

Observations show a multidecadal signal in the North Atlantic ocean, but the underlying mechanism and cause of its timescale remain unknown. Previous studies have suggested that it may be driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is the dominant pattern of winter atmospheric variability. To further address this issue, the global ocean general circulation model, Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), is driven using a 2,000 years long white noise forcing associated with the NAO. Focusing on key ocean circulation patterns, we show that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Sub-polar gyre (SPG) strength both have enhanced power at low frequencies but no dominant timescale, and thus provide no evidence for a oscillatory ocean-only mode of variability. Instead, both indices respond linearly to the NAO forcing, but with different response times. The variability of the AMOC at 30°N is strongly enhanced on timescales longer than 90 years, while that of the SPG strength starts increasing at 15 years. The different response characteristics are confirmed by constructing simple statistical models that show AMOC and SPG variability can be related to the NAO variability of the previous 53 and 10 winters, respectively. Alternatively, the AMOC and the SPG strength can be reconstructed with Auto-regressive (AR) models of order seven and five, respectively. Both statistical models reconstruct interannual and multidecadal AMOC variability well, while on the other hand, the AR(5) reconstruction of the SPG strength only captures multidecadal variability. Using these methods to reconstruct ocean variables can be useful for prediction and model intercomparision.

Evolution of subpolar North Atlantic surface circulation since the early Holocene inferred from planktic foraminifera faunal and stable isotope records

Past changes in the surface flow regime of two main eastern North Atlantic warm water pathways toward the Nordic seas were reconstructed based on faunal analyses in combination with carbon and oxygen stable isotope measurements in planktic foraminifera. The investigated sites, in the surroundings of the Faroe Islands, are located in the transitional area where surface waters of subpolar and subtropical origin mix before entering the Arctic Mediterranean. In these areas, large-amplitude millennial variability in the characteristics of the upper-water column appears modulated by changes in the intensity of the Subpolar Gyre circulation. From 7.8 to 6 ka BP, faunal records indicate a deep mixed-layer which, in conjunction with lighter δ18O values, suggest that the inflowing Atlantic waters were dominated by a relatively cooler and fresher water mass, reflecting a strengthening of the Subpolar Gyre under conditions of enhanced positive NAO-like forcing and reduced meltwater input. A shift in the hydrographic conditions occurred during the Mid-Holocene (centered at 5 ka BP). At this time, increasing upper water column stratification and the incipient differentiation of the stable isotopic signal of the Iceland–Faroe and Faroe–Shetland surface water masses, suggest increasing influx of warmer, more saline surface waters from the Subtropical Gyre, as Subpolar Gyre circulation weakened. The mid-Holocene decline in Subpolar Gyre strength is presumably related to a shift toward a low state of the NAO-like forcing associated with decreased solar irradiance. Later in the Holocene, from 4 ka BP to present, the increased frequency and reduced amplitude of the surface hydrographic changes reflect corresponding fluctuations in Subpolar Gyre circulation. These high frequency oscillations in Subpolar Gyre strength suggest increased surface circulation sensitivity to moderate freshwater fluxes to the Labrador–Irminger Sea basin, highlighting the importance of the salinity balance in modulating Subpolar Gyre dynamics, particularly under conditions of low NAO atmospheric forcing.

Multiyear predictability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

In decadal predictability studies, the subpolar Atlantic stands out as a region of high potential and real predictability. Since local temperature and salinity variations in the region are for a large part controlled by ocean dynamics, skillful predictability of the local ocean dynamics is a prerequisite to obtain multiyear predictability of other variables such as sea surface temperature. In this study, we discuss the predictability of the main ocean current system in the region, the subpolar gyre. From perfect model hindcasts exploiting initial condition information only from realistic ocean observation locations, we find that predictability is increased when Argo subsurface data are included. In our real‐world experiments with initialized hindcasts, the observed decline in subpolar gyre strength of the mid‐1990s is reproduced well and we find predictability of the subpolar gyre up to 2 years ahead, comparable to the skill of a damped persistence model.

Indices of strength and location for the North Pacific Subtropical and Subpolar Gyres

The adjustment of the North Pacific Subtropical and Subpolar Gyres towards changes in wind stress leads to different time-scale variabilities, which plays a significant role in climate changes. Based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) datasets, the variations of the Subtropical and Subpolar Gyres are diagnosed using “three-dimension Ocean Circulation Diagnostic Method”, and established three types of index series describe the strength, meridional and depth center of the Subtropical and Subpolar Gyres. The above indices present the seasonal, interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the Subtropical and Subpolar Gyres, which proves well. Both the Gyres are the strongest in winter, but the Subtropical Gyre is the weakest in summer and the Subpolar Gyre is the weakest in autumn. The Subtropical Gyre moves northward from February to March, southward in October, and to the southernmost in around January, while the Subpolar Gyre moves northward in spring, southward in summer, northward again in autumn and reaching the extreme point in winter to the south. The common feature of the interannual and interdecadal variabilities is that the two gyres were weaker and to the north before 1976–1977, while they were stronger and to the south after 1976–1977. The Subpolar Gyre has made a paramount contribution to the variability on interdecadal scales. As is indicated with the Subpolar Gyre strength indices, there was an important shift from weak to strong around 1976–1977, and the correlation coefficient with the North Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices was 0.45, which was far better than that between the Subtropical Gyre strength indices and the PDO. Tests show that influenced by small and mesoscale eddies, themagnitude of large-scale gyres strength is strongly dependent on data resolution. But seasonal interannual and interdecadal large-scale variabilities of the two gyres presented with indices is less affected by model resolution.

Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system

Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of observations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45°N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal correlates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3–6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions.

Arctic/Atlantic Exchanges via the Subpolar Gyre*

Abstract In the present study the decadal variability in the strength and shape of the subpolar gyre (SPG) in a 600-yr preindustrial simulation using the Bergen Climate Model is investigated. The atmospheric influence on the SPG strength is reflected in the variability of Labrador Sea Water (LSW), which is largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation, the first mode of the North Atlantic atmospheric variability. A combination of the amount of LSW, the overflows from the Nordic seas, and the second mode of atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern, explains 44% of the modeled decadal variability in the SPG strength. A prior increase in these components leads to an intensified SPG in the western subpolar region. Typically, an increase of one standard deviation (std dev) of the total overflow (1 std dev = 0.2 Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) corresponds to an intensification of about one-half std dev of the SPG strength (1 std dev = 2 Sv). A similar response is found for an increase of one std dev in the amount of LSW, and simultaneously the strength of the North Atlantic Current increases by one-half std dev (1 std dev = 0.9 Sv).

Reversed North Atlantic gyre dynamics in present and glacial climates

The dynamics of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) are assessed under present and glacial boundary conditions by investigating the SPG sensitivity to surface wind-stress changes in a coupled climate model. To this end, the gyre transport is decomposed in Ekman, thermohaline, and bottom transports. Surface wind-stress variations are found to play an important indirect role in SPG dynamics through their effect on water-mass densities. Our results suggest the existence of two dynamically distinct regimes of the SPG, depending on the absence or presence of deep water formation (DWF) in the Nordic Seas and a vigorous Greenland–Scotland ridge (GSR) overflow. In the first regime, the GSR overflow is weak and the SPG strength increases with wind-stress as a result of enhanced outcropping of isopycnals in the centre of the SPG. As soon as a vigorous GSR overflow is established, its associated positive density anomalies on the southern GSR slope reduce the SPG strength. This has implications for past glacial abrupt climate changes, insofar as these can be explained through latitudinal shifts in North Atlantic DWF sites and strengthening of the North Atlantic current. Regardless of the ultimate trigger, an abrupt shift of DWF into the Nordic Seas could result both in a drastic reduction of the SPG strength and a sudden reversal in its sensitivity to wind-stress variations. Our results could provide insight into changes in the horizontal ocean circulation during abrupt glacial climate changes, which have been largely neglected up to now in model studies.

On Multidecadal Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Community Climate System Model Version 3

Abstract Multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is investigated diagnostically in the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) present-day simulations, using the highest (T85 × 1) resolution version. This variability has a 21-yr period and is present in many other ocean fields in the North Atlantic. In MOC, the oscillation amplitude is about 4.5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), corresponding to 20% of the mean maximum MOC transport. The northward heat transport (NHT) variability has an amplitude of about 0.12 PW, representing 10% of the mean maximum NHT. In sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS), the peak-to-peak changes can be as large as 6°–7°C and 3 psu, respectively. The Labrador Sea region is identified as the deep-water formation (DWF) site associated with the MOC oscillations. In contrast with some previous studies, temperature and salinity contributions to the total density in this DWF region are almost equal and in phase. The heat and freshwater budget analyses performed for the DWF site indicate a complex relationship between the DWF, MOC, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and subpolar gyre circulation anomalies. Their complicated interactions appear to be responsible for the maintenance of this multidecadal oscillation. In these interactions, the atmospheric variability associated with the model’s NAO plays a prominent role. In particular, the NAO modulates the subpolar gyre strength and contributes to the formation of the temperature and salinity anomalies that lead to positive/negative density anomalies at the DWF site. In addition, the wind stress curl anomalies occurring during the transition phase between the positive and negative NAO states produce fluctuations of the subtropical–subpolar gyre boundary, thus creating midlatitude SST and SSS anomalies. Comparisons with observations show that neither the pattern nor the magnitude of this dominant SST variability is realistic.

Simulated Variability of the Circulation in the North Atlantic from 1953 to 2003

Abstract The variability of the circulation in the North Atlantic and its link with atmospheric variability are investigated in a realistic hindcast simulation from 1953 to 2003. The interannual-to-decadal variability of the subpolar gyre circulation and the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is mostly influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Both circulations intensified from the early 1970s to the mid-1990s and then decreased. The monthly variability of both circulations reflects the fast barotropic adjustment to NAO-related Ekman pumping anomalies, while the interannual-to-decadal variability is due to the baroclinic adjustment to Ekman pumping, buoyancy forcing, and dense water formation, consistent with previous studies. An original characteristic of the oceanic response to NAO is presented that relates to the spatial patterns of buoyancy and wind forcing over the North Atlantic. Anomalous Ekman pumping associated with a positive NAO phase first induces a decrease of the southern subpolar gyre strength and an intensification of the northern subpolar gyre. The latter is reinforced by buoyancy loss and dense water formation in the Irminger Sea, where the cyclonic circulation increases 1–2 yr after the positive NAO phase. Increased buoyancy loss also occurs in the Labrador Sea, but because of the early decrease of the southern subpolar gyre strength, the intensification of the cyclonic circulation is delayed. Hence the subpolar gyre and the MOC start increasing in the Irminger Sea, while in the Labrador Sea the circulation at depth leads its surface counterpart. In this simulation where the transport of dense water through the North Atlantic sills is underestimated, the MOC variability is well represented by a simple integrator of convection in the Irminger Sea, which fits better than a direct integration of NAO forcing.

North Atlantic Interdecadal Variability: Oceanic Response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (1865–1997)

In contrast to the atmosphere, knowledge about interdecadal variability of the North Atlantic circulation is relatively restricted. It is the objective of this study to contribute to understanding how the North Atlantic circulation responds to a forcing by the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) on interdecadal timescales. For this purpose, the authors analyze observed atmospheric and sea surface temperature (SST) data along with the response of an ocean general circulation model to a realistic monthly surface flux forcing that is solely associated with the NAO for the period 1865–1997. In agreement with previous studies, it is shown that the relationship between the local forcing by the NAO and observed SST anomalies on interdecadal timescales points toward the importance of oceanic dynamics in generating SST anomalies. A comparison between observed and modeled SST anomalies reveals that the model results can be used to assess interdecadal variability of the North Atlantic circulation. The observed/modeled developments of interdecadal SST anomalies during the periods 1915–39 and 1960–84 against the local damping influence from the NAO can be traced back to the lagged response (10–20 yr) of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and the subpolar gyre strength to interdecadal variability of the NAO. Additional sensitivity experiments suggest that primarily interdecadal variability in the surface net heat flux forcing associated with the NAO governs interdecadal changes of the North Atlantic circulation.