Many plant species are well-adapted to historical fire regimes. An increase in the severity, frequency, and extent of wildfires could compromise the regenerative capacity of species, resulting in permanent shifts in plant diversity. We surveyed extant vegetation and soil seed banks across two forest types with contrasting historical fire regimes—Shrubby Dry Forest (fire return interval: 10–20 years) and Sub-Alpine Woodland (50–100 years). Over the past 20 years, both forests have been subject to repeated, high-severity wildfires at intervals significantly shorter than their historical return intervals. We examined the soil seed bank response to fire-cued germination, and whether the plant diversity in soil seed banks and extant vegetation demonstrated similar responses to short-interval, high-severity wildfires. The soil seed bank demonstrated a positive response to heat in combination with smoke, and for the Sub-Alpine Woodland, this was limited to sites more frequently burnt by fire. With an increase in fire frequency, there was a decline in species richness and Shannon’s Diversity and a shift in species composition in both extant vegetation and the soil seed bank. The fire frequency effects on the relative richness of trait associations were restricted to the Shrubby Dry Forest, and included an increase in short-lived obligate seeders, wind-dispersed species, and ant-dispersed shrubs in burnt relative to long unburnt sites in both extant vegetation and the soil seed bank. Graminoids were the most abundant component of the soil seed banks of Sub-Alpine Woodlands, and this increased with more frequent fire, with a similar trend (p = 0.06) in extant vegetation. Clear shifts in plant diversity in both soil seed banks and extant vegetation in forest types with contrasting historical fire regimes suggest that emerging fire regimes are pushing ecosystems beyond their historical range of variability, including potentially more flammable states and a decline in the buffering capacity of soil seed banks.
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