Structural Vector Autoregression Approach Research Articles

Macroeconomic impacts of monetary and fiscal policy in the euro area in times of shifting policies: A SVAR approach

This paper analyses the impacts of monetary and fiscal policy of the euro area on output and inflation between 2005 and 2022 using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach. We employ three alternative indicators of monetary policy, alongside government spending and revenue as fiscal variables to estimate the effects across different subperiods. The findings reveal that monetary policy tightening produces a negative and delayed effect on both output and inflation, with the effects differing across alternative monetary policy indicators in terms of duration and magnitude. A fiscal revenue shock is found to be inflationary, whereas a fiscal spending shock initially has a negative effect on growth that later turns positive, but is short-lived. The effects of fiscal policy shocks are more substantial than the effects of monetary policy shocks. The results also suggest that the effects may differ across subperiods, depending on the nature and intensity of the policy shifts.

ANALISIS TRANSMISSION OF MONETERY POLICY TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN KEUANGAN PASCA PEMULIHAN EKONOMI IN FIVE APEC COUNTRIES

The aim of this research is to determine and investigate how the global economic crisis in 2020 affected financial and economic growth after the Covid-19 crisis and the economic recovery that followed. Secondary data covering the period 2013 to 2023 was used in this research. Money supply, real interest rates, exchange rates, investment, inflation, and gross domestic product are the variables taken into account. This research examines the short-term and long-term impacts of monetary policy on financial and economic growth in five Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries using the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) approach. Three variables investment, reallinteresttrates, and moneyxsupplyido not significantly influence1economicxor financial growth, according to the study's findings, while two variables inflation and exchange rates have a positive impact on economic and financial growth.

Aversion and ambiguity: On the robustness of the macroeconomic uncertainty measure framework

The economic literature has focused on the role of uncertainty in the real economy, employing both measures of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion in structural models. In this connection, concerns about the measures for VIX and EPU, have been raised about whether or not they both measure and identify similar type of uncertainty. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach, we examine the relationship between VIX and EPU, their impact on the real economy and whether, and under which conditions, they can be distinguished between measures of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion. Specifically, we analyse the impact of uncertainty shocks of VIX and EPU on the industrial production, unemployment, and consumer credit in the US. Our main finding is that given their fundamental differences, the two measures are capturing different dimensions of uncertainty, VIX is a measure of risk aversion and EPU is a measure of ambiguity aversion. As such, our results are very important in terms of trading decision strategies to be implemented by investors and portfolio managers as it may help explain the two central behavioral traits affecting economic lifecycle problems, such as production, unemployment and consummation.

An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal

This paper investigates the effects of policy uncertainty on major macroeconomic variables in Portugal, employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. I develop an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index utilizing data from over twenty news sources, which captures key moments such as elections, budget negotiations, and various crises. In response to a rise in policy uncertainty, firms delay projects, leading to a decline in industrial output and a rise in unemployment. Consumers, in turn, reduce their non-essential spending, resulting in a gradual decline in retail sales. On the financial side, rising policy uncertainty drives down equity prices and widens credit spreads, reflecting the concerns of investors and lenders.

Understanding the cyclical patterns of carbon dioxide emissions to mitigate climate change: Evidence from the QUAD countries

Addressing the challenge of climate change requires a nuanced understanding of the factors driving CO2 emissions. While numerous studies have explored the relationship between economic variables and emissions, few have examined their cyclical interdependencies, and none as per our knowledge have conducted their study for the QUAD-the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. This gap motivated us to investigate whether discernible cyclical patterns exist in CO2 emissions, trade, GDP, and fossil fuel consumption in these nations. Utilizing the Hodrick-Prescott filter on annual data from 1970 to 2020, sourced from the World Bank and Our World in Data, this study uncovers country-specific procyclical trends in CO2 emissions. To scrutinize the dynamic interactions among these variables, we employ a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. Our empirical analysis reveals that a GDP shock elicits different contemporaneous responses in CO2 emissions across the QUAD countries: a positive response in India, Japan, and Australia, but a negative one in the United States. These findings emphasize the need for tailored strategies in managing CO2 emissions, akin to business cycle management, thereby underscoring the policy implications of our research.

Uncertainty and the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the United States and Brazil: SVAR approach

AbstractThe article analyses the interference of uncertainty on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. This issue is investigated through the lens of a Structural Vector Auto Regressive (SVAR) model for the United States and Brazil. Imposing government spending shocks, the models highlight a positive effect on economic activity. The results suggest Keynesian effects on consumption and GDP. To assess the effects of uncertainty, the models use two indices: the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) and the World Uncertainty Index (WUI). The findings indicate that the fiscal effects are considerably less intense when uncertainty reaches high levels, consistent with the Real Options approach. The results suggest that agents are more cautious when the high‐uncertainty overshadows the outline of the economic scenario. In this sense, uncertainty disturbs agents' decisions and decreases consumption, investment and economic activity.

World Output and Commodity Price Cycles*

This study investigates the cyclical patterns of energy, agriculture, and metals and minerals (MetMin) commodity prices. We identify three super cycles since 1960, and a potential fourth arising from the Ukraine crisis and global COVID-19 pandemic. Employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach, we establish an empirical relationship between output, CPI, and commodity prices. Our analysis reveals that an output shock leads to a general increase in all commodity prices, where the highest impact is on energy inflation. Moreover, we examine the heterogeneous effects of commodity inflation on overall inflation, uncovering ‘second round' effects across all commodities. Notably, agriculture inflation has the most significant impact on aggregate inflation, potentially explaining the destabilizing nature of food inflation in many countries. Our findings enhance understanding of these dynamics, offering important insights for policymakers and informing the public. Highlights We analyze the cyclical patterns of energy, agriculture and MetMin commodity prices. Real output, CPI and commodities exhibit the same cyclical patterns. A shock to output increases all commodities, where the highest response is energy inflation. We find ‘second-round' effects, where agriculture prices have the highest impact on inflation.

Impact of Monetary Policy Transmission on the Demographic in India: A Structural VAR Approach

This study explores the relationship between monetary policy instruments and India’s demographic structure, to understand how these instruments interact with the population composition. To trace the relationship, this study has considered annual data from 1993-2018. Using the structural vector autoregression (VAR) with restrictions and considering various macroeconomic variables, the study shows a significant relationship between the monetary policy variable represented by the repo rate and the demographic structure represented by the working-age population. Overall, the study concludes that demographic shifts affect monetary policy effectiveness.

Epidemic–economic complexity of COVID-19 policies across skill groups and geographies

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened public health and socio-economic activities across societal groups and geographies. We analyse the complex interplay between epidemic and economic factors using a structural panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) approach for Danish municipalities. Findings indicate that the pandemic shock and associated public health interventions led to significant increases in unemployment rates. Wage compensations reduce regional unemployment through both a direct local effect and indirect spatial spillovers. Decomposing the unemployment rate by skill, we find that the response to an increase in wage compensations is only significant for low-skilled persons and that it is larger in urban compared with rural settings.

When the United States and the People’s Republic of China Sneeze: Monetary Policy Spillovers to Asian Economies

This paper examines monetary policy spillovers from the US and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to real and financial sectors in advanced and emerging Asian economies over the period 2000 to 2020. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach, we find that Asian economies overall are more susceptible to spillovers to GDP, inflation, and the current account emanating from monetary policy shocks in the PRC than to those from the US. This is related to high inter-regional trade integration in Asia and is in line with previous research findings. However, while the prevailing literature has highlighted the dominant role of US monetary policy as a transmitter of shocks to global and Asian financial markets, we find more persistence in the response of advanced Asian interest rates to PRC monetary policy shocks. In addition, emerging Asian economies are found to be more susceptible to shocks emanating from the PRC in respect of equity markets and exchange rates. The rising synchronization of Asian financial markets in relation to the PRC as the financial account in the PRC has gradually opened as well as indirect effects via trade and regional value chains help to rationalize our findings.

Understanding the role of supply and demand factors in the global wheat market: a Structural Vector Autoregressive approach

Understanding the role of supply and demand factors in the global wheat market: a Structural Vector Autoregressive approach

Responsiveness of Headline Inflation to the Dynamics of Monetary Aggregates in Nigeria: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Approach

This paper contributes to the literature on the monetary transmission mechanism by using monthly data (January 2001 to December 2022) from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin to investigate how headline inflation responds to changes in monetary aggregates in Nigeria. The structural vector auto regression (SVAR) method by which the impulse response functions (IRF) and variance decomposition were used to examine the response of inflation to changes in narrow money (M1), M2, M3, and the interbank call rate In deviation from economic theory, the study found that positive shocks to M1 and M2 caused inflation to decline insignificantly. Positive shocks to M3 had an insignificant positive impact on inflation both in the short- and long run. This finding highlights that shocks to M3 are not a significant source of inflation pressure, and its control may not be a useful tool for the CBN to tame inflation in Nigeria. The study found that inflation declined insignificantly in response to positive shocks to the interbank call rate. This finding suggests that hiking interest rates have not been effective in addressing the problem of inflation in Nigeria. Overall, the results showed that using M1, M2, and M3 and interbank call rates is less potent in controlling inflation in Nigeria. Hence, this paper recommends reducing the number of financially excluded Nigerians by encouraging banking habits among Nigerians, especially those in un served and underserved rural areas.

Effect of International Commodity Price Shocks on Public Finances in Africa

This paper empirically investigates the macroeconomic responses to commodity price shocks with a focus on fiscal variables in a sample of thirty-three African commodity-dependent countries. Using the heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach developed by Pedroni, we find that government revenues as well as government expenditures react to commodity export prices shock. However, there is a large degree of heterogeneity across countries. Following country characteristics, we find that the response of fiscal variables is higher for countries dependent on extractive commodities than those dependent on agricultural ones. We also highlight the benefits of flexible exchange rate regimes for accommodating external shocks and ensuring macroeconomic stability, which in turn is beneficial to government revenue mobilization. Our results suggest that the African government should seize commodities as an opportunity and increase their efforts in revenue mobilization during price booms and make a productive investment to isolate their finances from commodity price collapses.

Money Demand in Indonesia: Does Economic Uncertainty Matter?

Since the global financial crisis of 2008, there has been a rise in economic uncertainty and money demand research. The money demand is vital in monetary policy, which has implications for the regional economy. This study aims to analyse the money demand in Indonesia in the middle of global economic uncertainty, as well as the contribution of the study, which includes the economic and monetary policy uncertainty in a separate model for an enhanced money demand function. The study used a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach. The results indicate that monetary demand is negatively affected by economic uncertainty. With the development of the financial sector, the impact of economic uncertainty and the unpredictability of US monetary policy drives people to be more cautious, resulting in a movement of "wealth" to other instruments. The current study implies that the monetary policy in the form of interest rates as the response to the global condition should consider monetary aggregates in terms of money demand as a precautionary measure to maintain money demand. The study revealed that stable money demand suggests inflation targeting as a monetary policy that can enhance monetary policy in the face of rising economic uncertainty.

The Origins and Dynamics of Inflation in Turkey: An SVAR Approach

This study aims to present empirical evidence on the relative importance of supply and demand-side factors in determining the fluctuations in the general level of prices in the Turkish economy. The employed strategy uses the view that supply and demand pressures can be distinguished from each other depending on the direction of their effects on price and quantity. After classifying the related economic variables as supply, demand, and common factors, the main determinants of domestic supply and demand were estimated econometrically using sample data from 2003:1–2021:4, and their relative contribution to inflation was calculated. By using these basic determinants, the estimated structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model shows that the pressures arising from the supply side are more dominant than the pressures of the demand side on the inflationary process in Turkey. The results indicate that the methodology suggested in this study will be useful in separating the factors that contribute to inflation, which has recently gotten out of control in Turkey and is gradually moving away from the targeted inflation. Policymakers considering these findings can reach optimal decisions in conducting the monetary policy toward the targeted level of inflation.

The macroeconomic impacts of the mobile money: empirical evidence from EVC plus in Somalia

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to examine the macroeconomic impact of mobile money in Somalia using quarterly data from 2010 to 2020.Design/methodology/approachThis study applied the structural vector autoregressive approach to examine the response of the macroeconomic variables to the mobile money shocks.FindingsThe results show that mobile money increases consumer spending by reducing transaction costs and enhancing access to finance, which promotes the expansion of aggregate output. This study also finds that mobile money helps exchange rate stability and price level maintenance, boosting trade openness. Moreover, mobile money is linked to the rise in real income due to productivity improvement and price stability. The results of this study indicated that mobile money has a short-run relationship with aggregate output, household consumption, price level, trade openness and real income. Through the Granger causality test, this study finds that mobile money has a unidirectional relationship with the exchange rate, price level, household consumption and trade openness.Originality/valueThe empirical findings of this study imply that mobile money can create a wide range of financial services to improve the financial system in rural and urban areas; hence, it enables poor and rural members of society to make payments and receive-and-transfer money using their mobiles.

Do Innovation in Environmental-Related Technologies and Renewable Energies Mitigate the Transport-Based CO2 Emissions in Turkey?

Given the unprecedented level of air pollution in urban areas, green transport systems has been a subject to an important debate in academic and policymaking circles. Despite the considerable outputs of the attendant literature, most of empirical studies to date have relied on conventional econometric models in which structural shocks are not controlled. This study, therefore, aims to offer a new perceptive of the dynamic connection between renewable energy, environment-related technological innovation, and transport-based CO2 emissions in Turkey during 1990Q1 to 2014Q1 by applying the Structural Vector Autoregressive approach (SVAR). Furthermore, to explore the co-movements and the lead-lag interrelations among the study variables, the wavelet coherence technique was used. The wavelet coherence technique circumvents the other traditional causality approaches by detecting the causal interrelation between the underlying series at different frequencies. The findings disclose that environment-related technological innovation has no reliable power to explain the variation in CO2 emissions from the transport sector. Solar energy is found to impact the CO2 emissions positively in the long run, while biofuels hold the same effect in short run. Moreover, per capita GDP and urbanization significantly impact the carbon emissions from the transport system in the long run with a negative sign. The wavelet analysis reveals that renewables and environmental-related technological innovation lead the transport-based CO2 emissions. The fourth and 16th periods are the most dominant frequencies. Accordingly, the study suggests that innovation in environment-related technologies is not enough to mitigate the pollution that stemming from the transport system in Turkey, it should be accompanied by strong and effective environmental measures. These policies might include environmental taxations, carbon pricing and trading schemes, which aim not only to prevent the pollution and over-extraction of resources, but also to promote the public revenues from different activities that related to environmental purposes and other applications such as energy product and vehicle fuels. In addition, it is suggested to strengthening the transportation system through the deployment of renewables and high-tech eco-friendly modes of transportation.

The Impact of Stock market shocks on Pakistan's macroeconomic variables: A structural vector auto regression approach

The Impact of Stock market shocks on Pakistan's macroeconomic variables: A structural vector auto regression approach

Exchange rate pass-through and its heterogeneity under the pegged regime: a case of Vietnam

This paper analyses the exchange rate pass-through effects (ERPT) into consumer prices in Vietnam with a pegged regime during 2001–2019 using a structural vector autoregressive approach. The model is identified based on the fit of data rather than a priori theorizing. Firstly, we find that the degree of ERPT in the country is higher than that in other emerging and developed economies. High and volatile inflation, a high degree of openness, and exchange rate regime are essential factors that explain the difference. Besides, we show that ERPT is positively correlated with the level and the volatility of inflation across sectors. Since the results are derived from a single country, the heterogeneity is more likely to be attributable to industry-specific rather than macro factors.

Modelling the effects of climate change on economic growth: a Bayesian Structural Global Vector Autoregressive approach

Modelling the effects of climate change on economic growth: a Bayesian Structural Global Vector Autoregressive approach