Strong Anomalies Research Articles

Equatorial Dynamics Significantly Weakened the Southward Somali Current Circulation during 1997–98

Abstract Based on reanalysis data and numerical model, this study documented an unusually weak southward Somali Current (SSC) circulation, an anticlockwise circulation in the western Arabian Sea, during the winter of 1997 to spring 1998, throughout the two-decade period from 1994 to 2017. Theoretical analysis and model simulations suggest that the exceptionally weak SSC circulation was primarily caused by abnormal wind forcing around the equator, associated with extreme climate events. The strong equatorial easterly anomalies are mainly responsible for the weakening of the SSC circulation north of ∼6°N and contribute to about half of the weakening south of ∼6°N, by regulating the layer thickness along the eastern boundary, following the time-dependent Sverdrup relation. The large negative wind stress curl anomalies near the equator contribute to another half of the weakening south of ∼6°N. This research underscores the dynamic connection between the circulation in the western basin and equatorial dynamics during extreme climate modes. Significance Statement The dynamic linkage between the western basin circulation and the equatorial forcing remains elusive. Based on reanalysis data, theoretical analysis, and numerical simulations, this study has confirmed that the exceptionally weak southward Somali Current circulation during the winter of 1997 to spring 1998 was significantly influenced by abnormal wind patterns around the equator, triggered by extreme climate modes.

The Relative Role of Indian and Pacific Tropical Heating as Seasonal Predictability Drivers for the North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractUnderstanding the predictability drivers for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during boreal winter at seasonal time scales remains challenging. This study uses large ensembles with the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system to investigate the relative impact of tropical Indian and Pacific heating on NAO predictability by examining the tropical forcing, teleconnection pathways, and sources of uncertainty. We select three case studies ‐ 1997/98, 2015/16 and 2019/20 ‐ with strong Indian Ocean heating anomalies, but with different El Niño conditions. We show that in 2019/20, with neutral ENSO conditions, Indian Ocean SSTs favor a positive NAO response via stratospheric and tropospheric pathways. In the cases with strong El Niño, we find contrasting results: in 1997/98, the Pacific forcing dominates, producing a negative NAO. In 2015/16, despite the strong El Niño, the Indian Ocean forcing dominates, leading to a positive NAO via intensification of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). While the stratospheric pathway exhibits varying responses to Indian Ocean forcing ‐ being weaker in 1997/98 and strongest in 2015/16, the Indian Ocean‐related tropospheric pathway remains robust along the Pacific subtropical jet across years. However, there is destructive interference between teleconnections from Indian and Pacific SST anomalies in both the tropospheric and stratospheric pathways. The competing effects of tropical heating in both basins, uncertainties in the Rossby wave response to tropical heating and SPV variability contribute to uncertainty in seasonal NAO predictions. The flow‐dependent nature of the stratospheric pathway underscores the complexity of seasonal forecast predictability, and the existence of windows of opportunity.

Neoproterozoic Ridge Subduction Beneath South China Craton: TTG Suites of Kangding Complex in Western Yangtze Block and its Geochemistry Characteristics

ABSTRACT A multidisciplinary study involving field investigation, petrographic, geochronology, and whole-rock geochemical data is presented for TTG suites in the western Yangtze Block. In this paper, we compiled element geochemistry data that we obtained from our previous works for China Geological Survey Projects and presented the zircon U-Pb age and the whole-rock elemental compositions of the Na-rich TTG rocks to provide constraints on the origin of the Neoproterozoic magmatism in the western Yangtze Block. The studied rocks show a calc-alkaline trend. They are comparable in whole-rock chemistry to Archean TTG suites from Finland, Labrador, India, Zimbabwe, Brazil, and Ontario, as well as the modern calc-alkaline magmas such as volcanic rocks in the Kastamonu area of Northern Turkey and the Cenozoic andesitedacite-rhyolite suites from the North American Cordillera. Zircon U-Pb age shows the crystallization age of the plagioclase gneiss from Kangding Complex is 772.4 ± 6.9 Ma. The granodiorites are more enriched in LREEs but depleted in HREEs, showed strong negative Eu anomalies, and are characterized by fractionated LREE, flat HREE, and depletion of high-field-strength trace elements (HFSE) relative to normal mid-ocean basalts (N-MORB). However, most trondhjemites, all tonalites, and all quartz diorites have no Eu anomalies. Trace element distribution patterns for all samples show typical island arc signatures with relative enrichment in LILE and depletion in HFSE like Nb and Ta. We assume that the TTG suites were derived from melting of metabasalt in a subducted slab heated by a slab window, which provides further support for a Neoproterozoic intra-oceanic ridge subduction along the western margin of Yangtze Block.

Interdecadal shifts of ENSO influences on Spring Central Asian precipitation

Spring Central Asian precipitation (SCAP) holds significant implications for local agriculture and ecosystems, with its variability mainly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO–SCAP relationship has experienced pronounced interdecadal shifts, though mechanisms remain elusive. Based on observations and climate model simulations, these shifts may result from transitions in ENSO-induced meridional circulation and Rossby wave trains triggered by North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. During high (low) correlation periods, ENSO induces strong (weak) vertical motion anomalies over Central Asia, while NA SST anomalies exert a weak (strong) counteracting effect, modulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In the positive (negative) phase of PDO, a slow (fast) decaying ENSO triggers a strong (weak) NA horseshoe-like SST anomaly in the post-ENSO spring, affecting the ENSO–SCAP relationship. Our study identifies a strengthening trend in the ENSO–SCAP relationship since the 2000s, indicating improved predictability for SCAP in recent decades.

Unravelling the atmospheric dynamics involved in flash drought development over Spain

AbstractFlash droughts (FDs) are distinguished by a rapid development associated with strong precipitation deficits and/or increases in atmospheric evaporative demand in the short‐term, but little is known about the atmospheric conditions underlying these events. In this study, we analyse for the first time the atmospheric dynamics involved in the development of FDs in Spain over the period 1961–2018. FDs are related to large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the region, in particular with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is the main atmospheric driver of FDs in winter and autumn, and it is essential in explaining FD development in spring. We also found that FDs are typically linked to strong positive anomalies in 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure over the region during the weeks prior to the onset. At the synoptic scale, the most common weather types (WTs) recorded during the development of FDs are Anticyclonic Western (ANT_W_AD), East (E_AD) and Northeast (NE_AD) advection, and Anticyclonic (ANTICYC). In particular, ANTICYC WT is the main atmospheric driver of FDs in summer. Ridging conditions occur frequently during FDs in all seasons, being the most important factor controlling FD development in spring. Likewise, we noted that some of the FDs recorded in summer are related to and/or exacerbated by Saharan air intrusions associated with pronounced ridges. The results of this research have important implications for the understanding, monitoring and prediction of FDs in Spain, providing a detailed assessment of the main atmospheric dynamics involved in FD triggering at different spatial scales.

Density structures of the upper mantle in the East African Rift System: implications for the evolution of intracontinental rifting

The East African Rift System (EARS) provides an ideal natural laboratory for studying the mechanisms of tectonic plate breakup and continental drift, as well as a unique perspective for exploring the maturation process of continental rifting and its drivers. This study combines high-resolution satellite gravity data and seismic tomography model with an integrated geophysical approach to reveal the density structures in the upper mantle of the EARS. The results show that the northeastern to central Congo and Zimbabwe Craton exhibit significant high-density anomalies extending up to 250 km, which is indicative of a thicker and more intact lithosphere. In contrast, the Uganda, Tanzania, eastern and southern Congo, and Kaapvaal Craton show shallow high-density anomalies underlain by low-density anomalies that are clearly derived from the deeper mantle, indicating a thining of the lithosphere with some degree of possible melting at the base. The various rift segments of the EARS exhibit different rift morphologies. The Main Ethiopian Rift and the Kenya Rift of the Eastern Rift Branch show strong low-density anomalies, indicating intense melting, which is much stronger than that observed in the Western Rift Branch. However, the two rifts may have originated from the same mantle uplift in which the low-density anomalies of the Eastern and Western Rift Branches connected in the deep upper mantle. The lower portion of the Malawi Rift exhibits weaker low-denstiy anomalies, which can be observed to the south of the Malawi Rift, extending further south as a continuation of the EARS. Combining the results of previous kinetics simulations and our density perturbation results, it can be inferred that the Eastern Rift Branch is mainly affected by active rifting, while the Western Rift Branch is affected by both active and passive rifting.

Summer marine heatwaves in the tropical Indian Ocean associated with an unseasonable positive Indian Ocean Dipole event 2012

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are anomalously warm events that profoundly affect climate change and local ecosystem. During the summer of 2012 (June–September), intense MHWs occurred in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) concurrently with an unseasonable positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) event. The MHW metrics (duration, frequency, cumulative intensity and maximum intensity) were characterized by northwestward–slanted patterns from west Australia to the Somalia coast. The analysis confirmed that these MHWs were closely associated with the unseasonable pIOD 2012. The weakening of Western North Pacific Subtropical High and strengthening of Australian High in spring induced an interhemispheric pressure gradient that drove two anticyclonic circulation patterns over the eastern TIO. The first anticyclonic circulation featured cross–equatorial wind anomalies from south of Java to the South China Sea/Philippine Sea, which led to strong upwelling off Sumatra–Java during the subsequent summer. The second anticyclonic circulation excited downwelling Rossby waves that propagated from the southeastern TIO to the western TIO. Thus, downwelling in the western pole and upwelling in the eastern pole led to a strong pIOD event peaking in summer, namely, the unseasonable pIOD 2012. These downwelling Rossby waves deepened the thermocline by more than 60 m and caused anomalous surface warming, thereby contributing to the occurrences of MHWs. With the development and peak of the unseasonable pIOD 2012, anomalous atmospheric circulation transported moisture from the TIO to the subtropical Western North Pacific (WNP), favoring a strong cyclonic anomaly that profoundly affected the summer monsoon rainfall over the subtropical WNP. This study provides some perspectives on the role of pIOD events in summer climate over the Indo–Northwest Pacific region.

Correlated crustal and mantle melting documents proto-Tibetan Plateau growth.

The mechanism that causes the rapid uplift and active magmatism of the Hoh-Xil Basin in the northern Tibetan Plateau and hence the outward growth of the proto-plateau is highly debated, more specifically, over the relationship between deep dynamics and surface uplift. Until recently the Hoh-Xil Basin remained uncovered by seismic networks due to inaccessibility. Here, based on linear seismic arrays across the Hoh-Xil Basin, we present a three-dimensional S-wave velocity (VS) model of the crust and uppermost mantle structure beneath the Tibetan Plateau from ambient noise tomography. This model exhibits a widespread partially molten crust in the northern Tibetan Plateau but only isolated pockets in the south manifested as low-VS anomalies in the middle crust. The spatial correlation of the widespread low-VS anomalies with strong uppermost mantle low-VS anomalies and young exposed magmatic rocks in the Hoh-Xil Basin suggests that the plateau grew through lithospheric mantle removal and its driven magmatism.

On the Footsteps of Active Faults from the Saronic Gulf to the Eastern Corinth Gulf: Application of Tomographic Inversion Using Recent Seismic Activity

This study examines the body-wave velocity structure of Attica, Greece. The region is located between two major rifts, the Gulf of Corinth and the Euboekos Gulf, and has experienced significant earthquakes throughout history. The distribution of seismic activity in the area necessitates a thorough investigation of geophysical properties, such as seismic velocities, to reveal the extent of significant fault zones or the presence of potential hidden faults. This case study utilized over 3000 revised events to conduct a local earthquake tomography (LET). P- and S-wave travel-time data were analyzed to explore small- to medium-scale (~10 km) anomalies that could be linked to local neotectonic structures. The study presents a detailed 3-D seismic velocity structure for Attica and its adjacent regions. The results of the study revealed strong lateral body-wave velocity anomalies in the upper crust were related to activated faults and that a significant portion of the observed seismicity is concentrated near the sites of the 1999 and 2019 events.

Fine interpretation of magnetic data for a concealed mineral deposit: A case study of the Fe-polymetallic deposit from Western China

We interpret the magnetic anomalies for exploration and characterization of the Galinge iron polymetallic deposit, which is the largest iron polymetallic deposit in Western China. This undeveloped deposit is completely concealed by the thick Quaternary sediments, presenting an exploration challenge. A lot of drillholes have been implemented focusing on the strong magnetic anomaly centers, while the relationship between magnetite-bearing and non-magnetite-bearing drillholes is unclear, and the metallogenic regularity in the whole area needs to be further studied. The edge detection is applied on the downward continued field to resolve individual magnetite ore bodies and enhance possible concealed ore bodies. Three anomaly belts trending NE-SW with a total extension length of ∼11 km are first revealed. Combining the sharper images from the enhanced magnetic anomaly and the drillholes, we infer that the deposits would be related to the syncline structure. Forward modeling confirms the inferred three belts of the ore bodies and also shows possibly two layers deposits in which the deep layer would be located at a depth of ∼1000 m. Although the deeper deposit results in a very smooth and low amplitude magnetic anomaly, the forward modeling shows that the anomalies from both the shallow magnetite and the inferred deep one fit the observed anomaly better. One deep drillhole reveals the fact that the magnetite is existed at a depth of ∼1000 m which highlights the interpretation of the deep deposit. The results show the contribution of the fine processing techniques which would be used to distinguish zones of potentially concealed mineralization.

Are Critical Fluctuations Responsible for Glass Formation?

The dynamic heterogeneities occurring just before the transition to the glassy phase have been named as the cause of amorphization in supercooled systems. Numerous studies conducted so far have confirmed this hypothesis, and based on it, a widely accepted solution to the puzzle of glass transition has been developed. This report focuses on verifying the existence of a strong pretransitional anomaly near the glass transition Tg. For this purpose, supercooled liquid-crystalline systems with a strong rod-like structure were selected. Based on the obtained experimental data, we demonstrate in this article that the previously postulated dynamic heterogeneities exhibit a critical characteristic, meaning a strong pretransitional anomaly can be observed with the described critical exponent α=0.5. Due to this property, it can be concluded that these heterogeneities are critical fluctuations, and consequently, the transition to the glassy state can be described based on the theory of critical phenomena. To measure the pretransitional anomaly near Tg in supercooled liquid-crystalline systems, broadband dielectric spectroscopy (BDS) and nonlinear dielectric effect (NDE) methods were applied. The exponent α provides insight into the nature and intensity of critical fluctuations in the system. A value of α=0.5 suggests that the fluctuations become increasingly intense as the system approaches the critical point, contributing to the divergence in specific heat. Understanding the role of critical fluctuations in the glass transition is crucial for innovating and improving a wide range of materials for energy storage, materials design, biomedical applications, food preservation, and environmental sustainability. These advancements can lead to materials with superior properties, optimized manufacturing processes, and applications that meet the demands of modern technology and sustainability challenges.

Distinct propagating and standing modes of tropical intraseasonal variability as represented by the two principal oscillation patterns

Although the tropical intraseaonal variability (TISV), as the most important predictability sources for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, is dominated by Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), its significant fraction does not always share the canonical MJO features, especially when the convective activity arrives at Maritime Continent. In this study, using principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis on the combined fields of daily equatorial convection and zonal wind, two distinct leading TISV modes with relatively slower e-folding decay rates are identified. One is an oscillatory mode with the period of 51 days and e-folding time of 19 days, capturing the eastward propagating (EP) feature of the canonical MJO. The other is a non-oscillatory damping mode with e-folding time of 13.6 days, capturing a standing dipole (SD) with convection anomalies centered over the Maritime Continent and tropical central Pacific, respectively. Compared to the EP mode, the leading moisture anomalies at low level to the east of convection center are diminish for the SD mode, and instead, the strong negative anomalies of moisture and subsidence motion emerge in the tropical central Pacific area, which may be responsible for the distinct propagation features. Without filtering methods used, timeseries of the two POPs could be applied to the real-time monitoring of EP and SD events in the phase-space diagram. The two modes can serve as the simple and objective approach for a better characterization for diverse natures of TISV beyond the canonical MJO description, which may further shed light on dynamics of the TISV and its predictability.

Magmatism along the Nansha Trough on the southern continental margin of the South China Sea: Recent evidence from along-strike seismic profile

The Nansha Trough (NT) is part of the southern continental margin boundary of the South China Sea (SCS). It has undergone complex tectonic superposition and evolutionary processes involving the subduction demise of the Proto-SCS and subsequent spreading of the SCS. This study provides the first systematic identification and analysis of igneous bodies and seamounts along the NT, based on a multi-channel seismic profile (NDL1) recently acquired along it. The seamounts within the trough are of magmatic origin and the carbonate build-ups observed at the summits of some seamounts exhibit a substantial thickness. Igneous bodies within the trough are consistently associated with high P-wave anomalies. Furthermore, at the eastern and western sides, there are distinct gravity-magnetic-anomaly patterns. On the eastern side, Yinqing Seamount, Nanle Hill and volcanic mounds show high gravity and strong negative magnetic anomalies. In contrast, on the western side, Jinghong Seamount, Yangshu Hill and intrusive bodies show less pronounced magnetic anomalies. This difference may be related to differences in magmatic periods. Unlike the extensive post-spreading magmatism in the SCS's northern margin and deep basin, the most widespread magmatic activity in the NT occurred at ca. 16 Ma before decreasing during the Miocene. This decrease may be closely related to subduction cessation in the Proto-SCS and the collision between the Nansha Block and Borneo. The identification and analysis of NT igneous bodies and their evolutionary processes help delineate the southern boundary of magmatism at the SCS margin. They also provide crucial information for constraining the magmatic processes of Proto-SCS subduction termination and SCS spreading evolution.

Thermally tunable broadband circular dichroism with Weyl semimetal/vanadium dioxide planar structure

Weyl semimetals (WSMs) have lately attracted significant interest because of the intrinsic large gyrotropic optical response and strong chiral anomaly. This study presents a mid-infrared (mid-IR) lithography-free platform exhibits broadband near-unity circular dichroism (CD) with WSM-vanadium dioxide (VO2) dual layers. The optical responses with mid-IR radiation have been explored with the generalized 4 × 4 transfer matrix algorithm. It is theoretically shown that the proposal possesses different absorption characteristics for right-handed circularly polarized (RCP) and left-handed circularly polarized (LCP) light. Theoretical results show that a CD in absorption reaching 0.936 and a g factor of 1.76 under 300 K temperature. The merit of the wide-angular chiral capacity can be maintained. The magnitude and resonance of CD can be tuned not only by adjusting the structural parameters, but also the insulator-to-metal transition (IMT) of VO2, which may facilitate the design of more efficient chiral optical devices.

Strong Eddy Kinetic Energy Anomalies Induced by Baroclinic Instability in the Southwest Region of the Kerguelen Plateau, East Antarctica

AbstractEddy activity is particularly prominent in the Southern Ocean due to the instabilities of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which plays a critical role in energy transport of the global ocean. In this study, a systematic energetics analysis framework is employed to investigate notable anomalies of an intensified Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) event observed in the southwest region of the Kerguelen Plateau in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean in 2017, utilizing a reanalysis product. The EKE anomalies, presenting across all depths, emerged in April, peaked during the austral winter, and persisted into the subsequent summer. Energetics analysis indicates that the pronounced EKE anomalies are primarily determined by baroclinic instability, with distinct governing mechanisms at the surface and in the internal ocean. The anomalous intrusion of warm Circumpolar Deep Water intensified the baroclinic energy conversion in the subsurface, contributing significantly to the EKE anomalies. Moreover, strong anomalous wind‐induced Ekman pumping served to amplify the lifting of isopycnals, which enhanced the baroclinic instability and subsequently intensified the EKE anomalies. This study sheds new light on underlying mechanisms governing local polar dynamics and provides insights into the intricate interaction between ocean dynamics and energy distribution in the Antarctic region.

Interdecadal variations in the interannual relationship between winter tropical Pacific SST and subsequent summer Arctic sea ice in early 2000s

AbstractThe present study investigates the interdecadal change in the interannual relationship between winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical central‐eastern Pacific and the subsequent summer Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and its possible mechanism using 1979–2023 monthly SST and SIC data from Hadley Center and atmospheric reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR. It is found that the relationship between the winter tropical Pacific SST and the subsequent summer SIC of Beaufort Sea experienced an obvious interdecadal change from a significant negative correlation to a weak and insignificant correlation before and after the early 2000s, respectively. Before the early 2000s, when winter SST warming (cooling) anomalies occurred in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, it could sustain into summer and enhance a Rossby wave propagating from Tropic to high latitude, forming negative (positive) pressure anomalies in the North Pacific. Influenced by such anomalies, it is conducive to maintaining negative (positive) SST anomalies in the North Pacific from winter to subsequent summer. The summer SST cooling (warming) in the North Pacific could form a favourable atmospheric circulation anomaly for less (more) SIC. In contrast, after the early 21st century, the strong SST anomalies in winter over the eastern tropical Pacific would weaken with time and subsequently diminish in spring, leading to the SST anomalies in the North Pacific persist to spring, which can hardly affect summer SIC anomaly in the Beaufort Sea. Therefore, the relationship collapses after the the early 2000s due to the weakened persistence of the eastern tropical Pacific SST anomaly.

A high-resolution seismic velocity model for East Asia using full-waveform tomography: Constraints on India-Asia collisional tectonics

East Asia's complex tectonic history makes it a unique place for plate-tectonic studies. While the crust and mantle structures beneath this region have been extensively investigated by receiver function and many different kinds of tomography studies, discrepancies among seismic velocity models have complicated our understanding of East Asia's tectonic evolution. Here, we use full-waveform adjoint tomography to study the seismic P- and S-wave velocity structures of the crust and mantle beneath East Asia. We use a large waveform dataset from 141 earthquakes recorded by 4640 broadband seismic stations. Our inversion optimizes the normalized correlation coefficient between synthetic and observed seismograms within individual time windows of different seismic phases, from P arrivals to the slowest surface waves. This approach allows us to fit regional multipathed waveforms and provides very well-resolved seismic P- and S-wave velocity structures from the crust to depths of about 800 km. Furthermore, we are able to obtain this resolution over most of East Asia allowing us to compare the amplitude and shapes of anomalies across the entire region. The observed structures in our new full-waveform tomography model (FWEA23) correlate well with tectonic units, revealing sharp contrasts across tectonic boundaries. Our model reveals narrow and strong linear fast anomalies associated with subduction zones in the western Pacific and Southeast Asia. Compared to these oceanic slabs, we observe different and more complicated mantle structures beneath the India-Asia continental collision zone. While our model spans a wide region in East Asia, we focus our interpretations on the seismic velocity anomalies beneath Tibet and surrounding regions, as our model provides significant implications for India-Asia continental collision tectonics. Our analysis suggests that cratonic Indian lithosphere collided with Eurasian plate around 25–20 Ma, subsequently underthrusting beneath Tibet horizontally with little deformation. This resulted in thickening, destabilization, and delamination of the rheologically weaker and less buoyant mantle lithosphere beneath north-central Tibet. Moreover, our model reveals isolated lithospheric fragments within the mantle transition zone and lower mantle beneath southern Tibet and northern India, suggesting that non-cratonic Greater India continental lithosphere has broken off and sunk into the deeper mantle. The lack of continuity among these lithospheric fragments suggests a convective destabilization process, distinct from typical oceanic plate subduction. Our results emphasize the important role of rheological properties of continental lithospheres in shaping the dynamics of continental collision.

Seismo-ionospheric precursory detection using hybrid Bayesian-LSTM network model with uncertainty-boundaries and anomaly-intensity

Several efforts have been made to understand the complex physical processes involved in a seismic process, but the findings are vague considering prediction capabilities. Nevertheless, recent seismo-ionosphere precursory research has enlightened new pathways toward building an earthquake (EQ) forecasting system. Previously, some conventional mathematical/statistical approaches have been proposed for detecting an anomalous value as a potential precursor. We propose a hybrid Bayesian-based Long Short-Term Memory (B-LSTM) Network model to forecast the Total Electron Content (TEC) data. We applied B-LSTM on different Vertical TEC (VTEC) datasets of two EQs (Mw7.7 Awaran EQ and Mw7.1 Van EQ) by forecasting VTECs with Normalised Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) scores of 0.15 and 0.10, respectively. We calculated errors and estimated the 99 % confidence interval to extract the VTEC anomalies. The model detects VTEC anomalies successfully but these anomalies may still have some biases and may lead to a false alarm. In order to minimize possible false alarms, we calculated the intensity of each anomaly and found a strong anomaly that occurred 2–3 days before the EQs. To strengthen the relationship of the detected VTEC anomalies with the investigated earthquakes, we examined the state of space weather conditions during and before the event. Our analysis expands the use of deep learning methods in EQ prediction and VTEC forecasting that can be used for various applications e.g. space weather and navigation.

Internal structure of the volcanic island of Surtsey and surroundings: Constraints from a dense aeromagnetic survey

Surtsey, a young basaltic island off the south coast of Iceland, was built by volcanic activity in 1963–1967 from a pre-eruption oceanic seafloor depth of 130 m. An aeromagnetic survey was carried out in October 2021 over a 60 km2 area covering Surtsey and its surroundings. It aimed to explore the internal structure and the possible existence of basaltic intrusions associated with the five vents active at different times over the 3.5 years of eruptive activity. The survey line spacing was 200 m and the flying altitude was generally 90 m a.s.l. The strongest anomalies (amplitude ∼700 nT) are caused by the 30–100 m thick subaerially erupted lava field on the southern part of Surtsey, formed in two episodes of effusive activity:1964–1965 and 1966–1967. 2D spectral analysis and Euler deconvolution indicate that the causative bodies of anomalies outside the island of Surtsey are located within the uppermost 300 m of the seafloor and their horizontal dimensions are similar to or smaller than their depth. 3D forward modeling of the island and its surroundings, constrained by observations during the formation of the island and drill cores extracted in 1979 and 2017, is consistent with an absence, at all vents, of pillow lava and therefore effusive activity in their opening phases. However, the data support the existence of a 10–20 m thick pillow lava field on the seafloor, 2.5–3 km2 in area, extending about ∼1 km to the south of Surtsey. The field is considered to have been fed by magma reaching the seafloor via channelized intrusive flow through the foreset breccia constituting the submarine part of an emerging lava delta during the early stage of effusive eruption in May–July 1964. The general scarcity of significant magnetic bodies within the edifices is consistent with magma fragmentation dominating the submarine eruptions from the onset of activity. A small magnetic anomaly is observed over the submarine edifice of Surtla, built during short-lived activity over ∼10 days in 1963–1964. This anomaly is consistent with observed subaqueous weak or moderate explosive activity that may have allowed a dyke to be preserved within the submarine tephra mound. More violent Surtseyan activity was observed at other vents, however, and may have destroyed any initial dykes that, if preserved, might have been resolved magnetically. Indications of magnetized volcanic rocks of unknown age predating the Surtsey eruption are found beneath the flank of the ephemeral island of Jólnir, the southernmost of the Surtsey vents.

The adsorption of cerium on synthetic δ-MnO2: Implications for Ce uptake behavior of hydrogenetic and early diagenetic ferromanganese nodules from the Western Pacific

Cerium (Ce) anomalies can be used to distinguish diagenetic and hydrogenetic nodules, making them an important discriminator for the genesis of marine ferromanganese nodules. To understand the enrichment and adsorption mechanisms of Ce in different types of ferromanganese nodules, we conducted mineralogical and geochemical studies on ferromanganese nodule layers formed through both hydrogenetic and early diagenetic processes as well as adsorption experiments on synthetic δ-MnO2 to monitor the Ce uptake during the different processes. The major and trace element contents of natural ferromanganese nodule layers were investigated by SEM, EPMA and LA-ICP-MS analysis. The marine nodule studied in this study consisted of a core of fish tooth and a rim that could be divided into the hydrogenetic (type I) and early diagenetic (type II) layers based on their mineralogy and Mn/Fe ratios. The Mn oxide mineral assemblage is composed of todorokite, buserite, birnessite, and vernadite (δ-MnO2) and occurred in both type I and II layers. The type I layer has laminated structures with a low Mn/Fe ratio (1.1–3.2; averaging at 1.7), and low Cu, Ni and Mg contents consistent with a hydrogenetic genesis. The type II layer has a columnar and stromatolitic structure with a high Mn/Fe ratio (5.1–54.0; averaging at 23.3) and high Cu, Ni and Mg contents that are similar to early diagenetic nodules. The ΣREE contents in type I and type II layers are 1405–3506 ppm (averaging at 2091 ppm) and 199–1232 ppm (averaging at 674 ppm), respectively, indicating that the REE is enriched in the hydrogenetic type I layers. Strong positive Ce anomalies are present type I layers ranging from 1.2 to 2.5 (averaging 1.9), but only slightly positive are seen in type II ranging from 0.4 to 2.4 (averaging at 1.0). Synthetic experiments to monitor the Ce uptake process show that Ce can be adsorbed onto δ-MnO2 with the XRD and FTIR patterns suggesting that the structure of δ-MnO2 did not change significantly, consistent with Ce behavior in hydrogenetic nodules. The results suggest that Ce is predominantly concentrated in hydrogenetic nodules in an oxic environment, whereas in the early diagenetic layer, there is less oxidation and fixation of Ce due to the suboxic conditions. Our findings are consistent with Ce anomalies in marine Fe-Mn nodules being the result of Mn oxide oxidation adsorption and then fixation (oxidation) after adsorption.