Stringent Mitigation Policy Research Articles

Projecting future labor losses due to heat stress in China under climate change scenarios

Climate change is expected to increase occupational heat stress, which will lead to diminished work performance and labor losses worldwide. However, sub-regional analyses remain insufficient, especially for countries with a heterogeneous spatial distribution of working populations, industries and climates. Here, we projected heat-induced labor losses in China, by considering local climate simulations, working population characteristics and developing an exposure–response function suitable for Chinese workers. We showed that the annual heat-induced work hours lost (WHL), compared to the baseline of 21.3 billion hours, will increase by 121.1% (111.2%–131.1%), 10.8% (8.3%–15.3%), and −17.8% (−15.3%–−20.3%) by the end of the century under RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways)8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6, respectively. We observed an approximately linear upward trend of WHL under RCP8.5, despite the decrease in future working population. Notably, WHL will be most prominent in the southern, eastern and central regions, with Guangdong and Henan accounting for a quarter of national total losses; this is largely due to their higher temperature exposure, larger population size, and higher shares of vulnerable population in total employment. In addition, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would yield substantial gains. Compared to RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, all provinces can avoid an average of 11.8%, 33.7%, and 53.9% of annual WHL if the 1.5 °C target is achieved, which is equivalent to avoiding 0.1%, 0.6%, and 1.4% of annual GDP losses in China, respectively. This study revealed climate change will exacerbate future labor losses, and adverse impacts can be minimized by adopting stringent mitigation policies coupled with effective adaptation measures. Policymakers in each province should tailor occupation health protection measures to their circumstances.

Potential carbon leakage risk: a cross-sector cross-country assessment in the OECD area

Achieving climate targets requires more stringent mitigation policies, including the participation of all economic sectors. However, in a fragmented global climate regime, unilateral mitigation policies affecting sectors’ production costs increase carbon leakage risk. Carbon leakage implies reducing the competitiveness of domestic sectors without achieving the full mitigation objectives. Under such circumstances, generating information about sectors’ vulnerability is essential to increase their acceptance of more stringent climate policies and design anti-leakage mechanisms. Our paper calculates and compares potential carbon leakage risk across sectors and OECD countries under varying climate policy scenarios covering GHG emissions along global supply chains. To measure this risk, we use the emission-intensity and trade-exposure metric and emission data including CO2 and non-CO2 gasses. Our results show that agri-food and transport sectors, usually lagging behind in countries’ national climate mitigation policies, could have an even higher carbon leakage risk than energy-intensive industries. Furthermore, we find that this risk can be higher in many downstream sectors compared to directly regulated sectors and is highly heterogenous across OECD countries.

Ozone-related Co-benefits of China's Climate mitigation Policy

China has demonstrated great commitment to take more vigorous and effective approaches to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. China's actions to mitigate CO2 emissions are expected to simultaneously reduce co-emitted air pollutants and reduce premature deaths. This study investigates the future changes in international and regional ozone and associated health and economic benefits of stringent climate mitigation policy in China by 2050. Results show that China's stringent mitigation policy positively impacts air quality and public health in China and its downwind transboundary regions, Japan and South Korea. More specifically, approximately 15,800 and 35,550 ozone-related premature deaths will be avoided globally in 2030 and 2050 worldwide, with 78% and 76% happening in China. The avoided ozone-related mortality could save 3 billion USD in 2030 and 10 billion USD in 2050 based on the willingness to pay method.

Managing the mitigation: Analysis of the effectiveness of target-based policies on China's provincial carbon emission and transfer

As the world's largest carbon emitter, China has set stringent mitigation targets. The Five-Year-Plans have been an important administrative tool for China in climate change mitigation. However, the emissions transfer inside China has raised the problem of pollution haven affect and challenges to the effectiveness of the mitigation policies. This study examines whether mitigation policies can promote emissions reduction and whether it causes the pollution haven effect in China. It establishes an Extended Provincial Input-Output Model to calculate province production-based emissions, consumption-based emissions, and emissions transfer from 2005 to 2015. The results show that: (1) The mitigation policy is effective as a 1% increase of the completeness of the mitigation target is related to a 0.118% decrease of production-based emissions. (2) Stringent mitigation policies increase net emissions outflow as a 1% increase of the completeness of the target is related to an 18.5% increase of the net emissions transfer. (3) Subsequent policy enforcement will weaken once the mitigation goal is accomplished. This study reputes that the mitigation policy effectively controls emissions, especially production-based emissions, while it still needs refined policy designing considering the pollution haven effect inside China. • Mitigation policies reduce production-based emissions. • More stringent policies increase the net emissions outflow of a province. • Policy enforcement will weaken once the mitigation goal has been accomplished. • Refined designing is needed for consumption-based emissions and carbon transfer.

Building resilient food system amidst COVID-19: Responses and lessons from China

CONTEXTThe COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread over the world and has heightened concerns over global food security risks. As the first country hit by COVID-19, China has adopted a series of stringent mitigation policies to contain the spread of virus. This has led to food system disruptions due to restrictions on labor and interruption of transport, processing, retailing, and input distribution. OBJECTIVEThe objective of this contribution is to report evidence for initial impacts and resilience of China's food system amid the COVID-19 pandemic and to discuss government's responses as well as long-term efforts that promoted resilience. METHODSWe reviewed a range of publications, government released reports and official information, blogs, and media articles, and whenever possible, we complemented this qualitative information with quantitative data from China's National Bureau of Statistics and finally empirical data obtained from a simulation study. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSWe identified China's earlier responses in each key food system activities including ensuring effective logistics of agricultural products and inputs, supporting production and processing, matching supply with demand, and mitigating consumer's income loss. In particular, innovative information and communications technology (ICT) applications along the food system had been highlighted. Coupled with China's long-term efforts in investing in agriculture, building emergency response systems, and adopting governor's responsibility mechanisms, there has been little panic in the food system with largely sufficient supplies and stable prices. In the second quarter of 2020, after registered negative growth in the first quarter, primary agriculture grew by 3.4% and the negative growth of livestock production was narrowed significantly by 8.7 percentage points. Food prices rose by a modest 0.6% and returned to normal after a surge in February 2020. SIGNIFICANCEWe expect that China's experiences on building resilient food systems could improve understanding of the challenges posed by COVID-19 from a retrospective perspective and provide lessons to other countries that are experiencing disruptions in the food systems worldwide. The lessons are also important for strengthening the resilience of food systems over longer time horizons.

Modelling food demand in the 21st century

Modelling food demand in the 21st century

Moving toward Net-Zero Emissions Requires New Alliances for Carbon Dioxide Removal

The 1.5°C target will require removing at least some of the carbon dioxide (CO2) previously emitted. Knowledge on how this can be done has been increasing, though barriers remain concerning governance, policy, and acceptability. For the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP26) to move beyond an academic debate on CO2 removal (CDR), a broader alliance of research and policy communities, industry, and the public is needed.

The influence of the fossil fuel and emission‐intensive industries on the stringency of mitigation policies: Evidence from the OECD countries and Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa

AbstractThe article assesses the effects of different industrial sectors on the design of market‐based policies that mitigate climate change. It claims that the emission‐intensive and fossil fuel industries, especially those exposed to trade, have a negative impact on the stringency of domestic market‐based mitigation policies, namely, carbon taxes and Emission Trading Systems (ETS). To address endogeneity between industrial and policy outputs, the empirical analysis resorts to a nontraditional instrumental variable method constructing instruments with heteroskedastic errors in the data. With a dataset that covers 34 countries from 1990 to 2015, the analysis shows that there is a negative and statistically significant association between these industries and policy stringency, albeit in a differentiated way. Whereas the upstream fossil fuel industries have a negative relationship with carbon taxes, the power industry was only negatively associated with ETS. Emission‐intensive manufacturers and the downstream fossil fuels industry have a negative effect on both policies. The design and practical applications of each policy explain the disparities; although ETS regulate larger emission‐intensive installations such as power plants, carbon taxes tend to impose tariffs on activities that are not necessarily emission‐intensive, such as oil extraction or specific fuels. The results, robust to different estimation methods, support that larger industrial outputs are significantly associated with less stringent mitigation policies.

Can the Paris Deal Boost SDGs Achievement? An Assessment of Climate Mitigation Co-Benefits or Side-Effects on Poverty and Inequality

The paper analyses the synergies and trade-offs between emission reduction policies and sustainable development objectives. Specifically, it provides an ex-ante assessment that the impacts of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted under the Paris Agreement, will have on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of poverty eradication (SDG1) and reduced income inequality (SDG10). By combining an empirical analysis with a modelling exercise, the paper estimates the future trends of poverty prevalence and inequality across countries in a reference scenario and under a climate mitigation policy with alternative revenue recycling schemes. Our results suggest that a full implementation of the emission reduction contributions, stated in the NDCs, is projected to slow down the effort to reduce poverty by 2030 ( 2% of the population below the poverty line compared to the baseline scenario), especially in countries that have proposed relatively more stringent mitigation targets and suffer higher policy costs. Conversely, countries with a stringent mitigation policy experience a reduction of inequality compared to baseline scenario levels. If financial support for mitigation action in developing countries is provided through an international climate fund, the prevalence of poverty will be slightly reduced at the aggregate level (185,000 fewer poor people with respect to the mitigation scenario), but the country-specific effect depends on the relative size of funds flowing to beneficiary countries and on their economic structure.

Climate Change Demands We Change. Why Aren’t We?: An Economic Perspective

Despite the dire warnings of impending doom from climate change, very little mitigation has yet to take place. This can partly be explained by the public-good nature of greenhouse gases where the costs are borne heavily by each emitting nation but the benefits are shared by the world. But the lack of action also is due to the high cost of mitigation and the long delayed and relatively low benefits. Stringent mitigation policies are not justified. Unable to discuss more moderate solutions, the world is reluctant to act at all.

Erratum: Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy

Nature Clim. Change 5, 127–131 (2015); published online 12 January 2015; corrected after print 28 January 2015 In the version of this Letter originally published, in equation (1) and in the explanatory sentence following the equation, jTFP should have read rTFP. In the second line of the equation, jDJOj,t should have read rDJOj,t.

Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy

Integrated assessment models estimate the impact of climate change on current economic output, but not on its rate of growth. This study modifies a standard integrated assessment model to allow climate change to directly affect gross GDP growth rates. Results show that climate change significantly slows down GDP growth in poor regions but not in rich countries, with implications for the level of near-term mitigation.

Quantifying the impact of climate change on drought regimes using the Standardised Precipitation Index

The study presents a methodology to characterise short- or long-term drought events, designed to aid understanding of how climate change may affect future risk. An indicator of drought magnitude, combining parameters of duration, spatial extent and intensity, is presented based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI is applied to observed (1955–2003) and projected (2003–2050) precipitation data from the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS). Potential consequences of climate change on drought regimes in Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain, Portugal and the USA are quantified. Uncertainty is assessed by emulating a range of global circulation models to project climate change. Further uncertainty is addressed through the use of a high-emission scenario and a low-stabilisation scenario representing a stringent mitigation policy. Climate change was shown to have a larger effect on the duration and magnitude of long-term droughts, and Australia, Brazil, Spain, Portugal and the USA were highlighted as being particularly vulnerable to multi-year drought events, with the potential for drought magnitude to exceed historical experience. The study highlights the characteristics of drought which may be more sensitive under climate change. For example, on average, short-term droughts in the USA do not become more intense but are projected to increase in duration. Importantly, the stringent mitigation scenario had limited effect on drought regimes in the first half of the twenty-first century, showing that adaptation to drought risk will be vital in these regions.

Indirect economic losses of drought under future projections of climate change: a case study for Spain

Drought is an economically important hazard for many countries, with the potential to cause large direct and indirect economic losses. Superimposed on this risk is the danger that future anthropogenic climate change poses. The study utilises projected estimates of direct drought losses, for a variety of different climate change scenarios, to assess how input–output analysis could be used to estimate indirect losses. Modifications were made to the adaptive regional input–output model to consider both the severity of individual drought events and the propagation of economic losses over time and applied to a case study of Spain. The study highlights the importance of the distribution of drought severity and direct losses over time when modelling indirect losses, emphasising a need to focus on time steps shorter than a year to model losses more comprehensively. The results suggest that annual drought losses in 2003–2050 could be up to 32 % higher for short-term droughts if indirect economic losses were considered and 57 % higher for longer-term droughts. Indirect losses were shown to increase nonlinearly over time and as emission scenarios became more severe. This suggests that the benefits of stringent mitigation policies in terms of avoided indirect losses may be more substantial than for direct losses in the second half of the twenty-first century. Whilst the estimates presented here are considered illustrative, the study highlights the importance of considering indirect economic losses for providing more comprehensive economic estimates of drought loss under future climate change and for assessing economic benefits of future mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Evaluating the Global Role of Woody Biomass as a Mitigation Strategy

As policy makers consider stringent targets for greenhouse gas emissions, integrated assessment models are increasingly relying on biomass energy as a critical energy source. However, it is not clear how much woody biomass to expect across time and across the planet. The integrated assessment models simply do not have enough detail about global forests and arable land to make careful forecasts of biomass supply over time. Integrating the complex dynamic demand for bioenergy from the IAMs with the complex dynamic structure of forests and forest supply is a daunting intertemporal task. This study examines the market for woody biomass by combining the integrated assessment model WITCH with the global dynamic forestry model GTM. Three carbon tax schedules are used to simulate different mitigation policies that lead to radiative forcing levels of 3.7, 3.2 and 2.5 W/m2 and a baseline scenario with no mitigation policies. WITCH determines the demand for woody biomass and GTM determines the supply of woody biomass over time. Moving from a mild to stringent mitigation policy would increase the demand of woody biomass from 8.2 to 15.2 billion m3/yr while the international price of wood would increase 4 to 9 times relative to the baseline scenario by 2100. This would shrink the demand for industrial wood products from 80% to 90% with the biomass program. Forest area will expand by 70-95% leading to increased storage of 685-1,279 GtCO2 in forest by 2100. Overall, the biomass program with the CCS technology plays a key contribution to overall GHG emission reductions in all scenarios contributing 20-27% of all mitigation for 2020-2100.

Aviation’s inclusion in international climate policy regimes: Implications for the Caribbean tourism industry

Nations with tourism dependant economies are becoming increasingly concerned about the inclusion of aviation in greenhouse gas mitigation policy for international bunker fuels and more recently adaptation policy proposals. The central concern is that such policies will increase the cost of traveling by air, therefore reducing visitor arrivals to long-haul, tourism-dependent destinations, often small island developing states. This study used a tourism arrivals model to examine the implications of currently proposed climate policies for the world’s most tourism dependant region – the Caribbean. Results indicate that under current proposals for both mitigation and adaptation focused climate policy, reductions in tourist arrivals from the major markets of Europe and North America would be negligible versus business as usual growth projections Only under the most stringent mitigation policy scenario. Which may portend a post-2020 policy regime, is a significant decrease in tourist arrivals predicted. Of the climate policies assessed, the adaptation policy had the potential to provide greater economic benefits to the Caribbean region.

How Harmful are Adaptation Restrictions

The dominant assumption in economic models of climate policy remains that adaptation will be implemented in an optimal manner. There are, however, several reasons why optimal levels of adaptation may not be attainable. This paper investigates the effects of suboptimal levels of adaptation, i.e. adaptation restrictions, on the composition and level of climate change costs and on welfare. Several adaptation restrictions are identified and then simulated in a revised DICE model, extended with adaptation (AD-DICE). We find that especially substantial over-investment in adaptation can be very harmful due to sharply increasing marginal adaptation costs. Furthermore the potential of mitigation to offset suboptimal adaptation is investigated. When adaptation is not possible at extreme levels of climate change, it is cost-effective to use more stringent mitigation policies in order to keep climate change limited, thereby making adaptation possible. Furthermore not adjusting the optimal level of mitigation to these adaptation restrictions may double the costs of adaptation restrictions, and thus in general it is very harmful to ignore existing restrictions on adaptation when devising (efficient) climate policies