In traditional time-domain extrapolation methods, the peak over threshold (POT) model is unable to accurately identify large load cycles in the load time history, resulting in distorted extrapolation results, particularly when addressing non-stationary loads. To address this problem, this paper proposes a time-domain extrapolation method based on the load cycle amplitude (LCA) model. The core of the method involves using load cycle amplitude features extracted from the measured loads as the basis for modelling, rather than extreme turning points based on threshold extraction. This approach prevents the load’s time-domain characteristics from compromising the accuracy of the extrapolation results. The case analysis results demonstrate that the extrapolation method based on the LCA model achieves more reliable results with both non-stationary and stationary loads. Furthermore, the streamlined modelling process results in reductions of 10.63% and 20.84% in the average computing time for the algorithm when addressing stress and vibration loads, respectively. The LCA model proposed in this paper further facilitates the integration of time-domain extrapolation methods into reliability analysis software.
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