Streamflow Deficits Research Articles

Modeling the Streamflow Response to Heatwaves Across Glacierized Basins in Southwestern Canada

AbstractIn addition to having far‐reaching impacts on human health, agriculture, wildfires, ecosystems, and infrastructure, heatwaves control streamflow through the melting of seasonal snow and glacier ice. Despite their importance, there is limited understanding of how heatwaves modify streamflow at regional scales, how these impacts vary by heatwave timing and duration, and how glaciers control the streamflow response. Here, we use a deep learning hydrological model, which has previously been trained, evaluated, and interpreted in southwestern Canada, to simulate the streamflow response to heatwaves at 111 basins in the region. The model, driven by gridded ERA5 reanalysis temperature and precipitation data from 1979 to 2015, is forced by synthetic heatwave conditions that vary in their duration and onset throughout the year. We consider how the streamflow response to heatwaves is sensitive to annual temperatures by adding spatially and temporally uniform warming of 2°C across the study region, under the assumption that the underlying hydrological system behavior remains unchanged. We find that heatwaves, particularly in spring and summer, induce an initial streamflow surplus followed by a streamflow deficit, relative to the non‐heatwave case. In summer, glacier contributions to streamflow partially compensate for streamflow deficits that arise from heatwaves earlier in the melt season. In the scenario with 2°C warmer annual temperatures, heatwaves induce a lesser streamflow response in spring when the seasonal streamflow is most increased due to the advancing freshet. Our findings demonstrate how glaciers buffer the impacts of heatwaves on streamflow, but this buffering effect is expected to diminish as glaciers retreat.

Changes in Blue/Green Water Partitioning Under Severe Drought

AbstractMuch attention has been given to the disproportionate streamflow deficits (relative to rainfall deficits) experienced by many catchments during the Millennium Drought (1998–2009) in southeastern Australia, along with lack of post‐drought streamflow recovery in some cases. However, mechanisms behind the coupled hydrologic and ecosystem dynamics are poorly understood. We applied a process‐based ecohydrologic model (RHESSys) in a Melbourne water supply catchment to examine changes in ecohydrologic behavior during and after the drought. Our simulations suggested that average transpiration (green water) was maintained under drought despite a substantial (12%) decrease in average rainfall, meaning that the entire rainfall deficit translated to reduced streamflow (blue water). Altered spatial patterns of vegetation behavior across the terrain helped the ecosystem maintain this unexpectedly high green water use. Decreased transpiration upland was compensated by increases in the riparian zone, which was less water limited and therefore able to meet higher water demand during drought. In the post‐drought period, we found greater transpiration and reduced subsurface water storage relative to pre‐drought, suggesting a longer‐term persistence in altered water partitioning. The post‐drought outcome was attributed to a combination of warmer climate and the persisting effects of the drought on nutrient availability. Given the importance of shifting ecohydrologic patterns across space, our results raise concerns for applying lumped conceptual hydrologic models under nonstationary or extreme conditions. Additionally, the processes we identified have important implications for water supply in Australia's second largest city under projected drying.

Drought intensity–duration–frequency curves based on deficit in precipitation and streamflow for water resources management

Abstract. Drought estimates in terms of physically measurable variables such as precipitation deficit or streamflow deficit are key knowledge for an effective water management. How these deficits vary with the drought event severity indicated by commonly used standardized indices is often unclear. Drought severity calculated from the drought index does not necessarily correspond to the same amount of deficit in precipitation or streamflow at different regions, and it is different for each month in the same region. We investigate drought to remove this disadvantage of the index-based drought intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves and develop IDF curves in terms of the associated deficit. In order to study the variation of deficits, we use the link between precipitation and streamflow and the associated indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI). More specifically, the analysis relies on frequency analysis combined with the total probability theorem applied to the critical drought severity. The critical drought has varying durations, and it is extracted from dry periods. IDF curves in terms of precipitation and streamflow deficits for the most severe drought of each drought duration in each year are then subject to comparison of statistical characteristics of droughts for different return periods. Precipitation and streamflow data from two catchments, the Seyhan River (Türkiye) and the Kocher River (Germany), provide examples for two climatically and hydrologically different cases. A comparison of the two cases allows a similar method to be tested in different hydrological conditions. We found that precipitation and streamflow deficits vary systematically, reflecting seasonality and the magnitude of precipitation and streamflow characteristics of the catchments. Deficits change from one month to another at a given station. Higher precipitation deficits were observed in winter months compared to summer months. Additionally, we assessed observed past major droughts experienced in both catchments on the IDF curves, which show that the major droughts have return periods at the order of 100 years at short durations. This coincides with the observation in the catchments and shows the applicability of the IDF curves. The IDF curves can be considered a tool for using in a range of specific activities of agriculture, ecology, industry, energy and water supply, etc. This is particularly important to end users and decision-makers to act against the drought quickly and precisely in a more physically understandable manner.

Temporal hydrological drought clustering varies with climate and land-surface processes

Recurrent hydrological droughts (streamflow deficits) are highly impactful and challenge water management. Regional studies have provided some evidence of drought-rich periods at specific time scales. However, it is yet unclear where and when droughts cluster in time. Here, we test for significant temporal hydrological drought clustering at subseasonal to multi-year time scales in different climate zones around the world using two different clustering metrics, i.e. the dispersion index and Ripley’s K. We find that (1) only 10% of the catchments show temporal hydrological drought clustering, (2) hydrological droughts cluster from seasonal to 3-year time scales with clustering being strongest at an annual time scale; (3) arid catchments with a low snow fraction are most prone to temporal drought clustering; and (4) temporal clustering is more pronounced for hydrological than for meteorological droughts. These results suggest that besides climatic drivers, land-surface processes importantly influence the temporal clustering behavior of hydrological droughts.

Moderate and Severe Hydrological Droughts in Europe Differ in Their Hydrometeorological Drivers

AbstractHydrological extreme events are generated by different sequences of hydrometeorological drivers, the importance of which may vary within the sample of drought events. Here, we investigate how the importance of different hydrometeorological driver sequences varies by event magnitude using a large sample of catchments in Europe. To do so, we develop an automated classification scheme for streamflow drought events. The classification scheme standardizes a previous qualitative drought typology and assigns events to one of eight drought event types—each characterized by a set of single or compounding drivers—using information about seasonality, precipitation deficits, and snow availability. The objective event classification reveals how drought drivers vary not just in space and by season, but also with event magnitude. Specifically, we show that (a) rainfall deficit droughts and cold snow season droughts are the dominant drought event type in Western Europe and Eastern and Northern Europe, respectively; (b) rainfall deficit and cold snow season droughts are important from autumn to spring while snowmelt and wet‐to‐dry season droughts are important in summer; and (c) moderate droughts are mainly driven by rainfall deficits while severe events are mainly driven by snowmelt deficits in colder climates and by streamflow deficits transitioning from the wet to the dry season in warmer climates. These differences in sequences of drought generation mechanisms for severe and moderate events suggest that future changes in hydrometeorological drivers may affect moderate and severe events differently.

Annual water deficit in response to climate variabilities across the globe

Severe water deficits due to abnormal climatic conditions can be observed in hydrology and agriculture and can be assessed by various characteristics of the water system that showdifferent responses to climate variability. This paper comprehensively investigates the sensitivities of hydrological (i.e. streamflow and water storage) and agricultural (i.e. plant water availability) water deficits to climate variability at a global scale from a hydrological cycle perspective. The sensitivities of 77 large basins across the globe are quantified by both multiple linear regression (MLR) and the Budyko framework based on a newly released terrestrial water cycle dataset. We find that streamflow and water storage deficits are generally more sensitive to rainfall variation, while plant water availability is more responsive to variations of potential evapotranspiration. The climate sensitivities of the water deficit indices are shown to vary with the wetness index and are shaped by catchment surface properties like water storage capacity. The sensitivities of streamflow deficits to rainfall are higher in wetter regions, while the sensitivities of plant water availability to potential evapotranspiration are higher in drier regions. The findings about the divergent responses in water deficit indices can be conducive to developing region-dependent water resource management strategies to alleviate water deficits under a changing environment.

Climate change impacts and uncertainty on spatiotemporal variations of drought indices for an irrigated catchment

Droughts are responsible for severe vegetation loss and declining agricultural yields. As future climate change projections imply an increased risk of extreme events, the occurrence of droughts is potentially accelerating in the future. The influence of climate change on drought events in a Danish agricultural catchment under the emission scenario RCP8.5 are evaluated by three different drought indices covering soil moisture, groundwater and streamflow deficits. The indices are based on results from a hydrological model forced by downscaled climate outputs from 16 Euro-CORDEX climate models (GCM-RCMs), while considering uncertainties among climate model projections. The hydrological model demonstrated a satisfactory ability in modelling historical drought characteristics. The results from the future projections showed that the intensity and frequency of droughts increased towards the end of the century. The spatial patterns of changes in drought were found to be highly dependent on the climate model results, index formulations and assumptions, as well as the hydrogeological properties of the catchment. Groundwater based irrigation in the agricultural areas effectively mitigates soil moisture drought, leading to lower future uncertainty of the ensemble mean (higher model agreement) for soil moisture droughts at irrigated locations. This is obtained at the cost of lower groundwater levels in both reference and future periods resulting in larger uncertainties on the simulated groundwater droughts, because of the addition of irrigation uncertainty. While the joint impact of greater groundwater abstraction and changing dynamics of precipitation and groundwater recharge also leads to larger streamflow variability between model combinations (standard deviation) under RCP8.5 for the downstream discharge station.

Streamflow variability and its linkage to ENSO events in the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin

Study RegionThe Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes basin is found in the main Ethiopian Rift Valley system. Study FocusUnderstanding the hydrological impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is of a paramount importance for society since it substantially affects the environmental and socio-economic conditions. The relation between ENSO indicators (SOI, MEI and Niño3.4) and streamflow magnitude was statistically evaluated with partial correlation, cross correlation, extreme streamflow indices and streamflow deficits to provide empirical evidence on how ENSO phases (La Niña and El Niño) affect streamflow variability. Trends of streamflow and ENSO indicators were tested using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. New Hydrological Insights for the RegionOur findings indicate that the partial correlation between the catchment area and ENSO effect on streamflow were not statistically significant at p < 0.05 after removing the south-north gradient. The direction of the ENSO effect is spatially inconsistent since El Niño (La Niña) causes positive deviation in some catchments and negative deviation for other catchments. Though statistically insignificant, reduced flow is detected for many catchments during El Niño years. For most catchment, the extreme high flow has a larger magnitude during La Niña than El Niño whereas the extreme low flow has a larger magnitude during El Niño than La Niña years. Overall, the relationship between ENSO and streamflow of the study area is found spatially inconsistent and statistically insignificant for most catchments.

Signatures of human intervention – or not? Downstream intensification of hydrological drought along a large Central Asian river: the individual roles of climate variability and land use change

Abstract. The transboundary Helmand River basin (HRB) is the main drainage system for large parts of Afghanistan and the Sistan region of Iran. Due to the reliance of this arid region on water from the Helmand River, a better understanding of hydrological-drought pattern and the underlying drivers in the region is critically required for effective management of the available water. The objective of this paper is therefore to analyze and quantify spatiotemporal pattern of drought and the underlying processes in the study region. More specifically we test for the Helmand River basin the following hypotheses for the 1970–2006 period: (1) drought characteristics, including frequency and severity, systematically changed over the study period; (2) the spatial pattern and processes of drought propagation through the Helmand River basin also changed; and (3) the relative roles of climate variability and human influence on changes in hydrological droughts can be quantified. It was found that drought characteristics varied throughout the study period but largely showed no systematic trends. The same was observed for the time series of drought indices SPI (standard precipitation index) and SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index), which exhibited considerable spatial coherence and synchronicity throughout the basin, indicating that, overall, droughts similarly affect the entire HRB with few regional or local differences. In contrast, analysis of the SDI (streamflow drought index) exhibited significant negative trends in the lower parts of the basin, indicating an intensification of hydrological droughts. It could be shown that with a mean annual precipitation of ∼ 250 mm yr−1, streamflow deficits and thus hydrological drought throughout the HRB are largely controlled by precipitation deficits, whose annual anomalies on average account for ±50 mm yr−1, or ∼ 20 % of the water balance of the HRB, while anomalies of total evaporative fluxes on average only account for ±20 mm yr−1. Assuming no changes in the reservoir management practices over the study period, the results suggest that the two reservoirs in the HRB only played a minor role for the downstream propagation of streamflow deficits, as indicated by the mean difference between inflow and outflow during drought periods, which did not exceed ∼ 0.5 % of the water balance of the HRB. Irrigation water abstraction had a similarly limited effect on the magnitude of streamflow deficits, accounting for ∼ 10 % of the water balance of the HRB. However, the downstream parts of the HRB moderated the further propagation of streamflow deficits and associated droughts because of the minor effects of reservoir operation and very limited agricultural water in the early decades of the study period. This drought moderation function of the lower basin was gradually and systematically inverted by the end of the study period, when the lower basin eventually amplified the downstream propagation of flow deficits and droughts. Our results provide plausible evidence that this shift from drought moderation to drought amplification in the lower basin is likely a consequence of increased agricultural activity and the associated increases in irrigation water demand, from ∼ 13 mm yr−1 at the beginning of the study period to ∼ 23 mm yr−1 at the end, and thus in spite of being only a minor fraction of the water balance. Overall the results of this study illustrate that flow deficits and the associated droughts in the HRB clearly reflect the dynamic interplay between temporally varying regional differences in hydro-meteorological variables together with subtle and temporally varying effects linked to direct human intervention.

Progressive water deficits during multiyear droughts in basins with long hydrological memory in Chile

Abstract. A decade-long (2010–2020) period with precipitation deficits in central–south Chile (30–41∘ S), the so-called megadrought (MD), has led to streamflow depletions of larger amplitude than expected from precipitation anomalies, indicating an intensification in drought propagation. We analysed the catchment characteristics and runoff mechanisms modulating such intensification by using the CAMELS-CL dataset and simulations from the HBV hydrological model. We compared annual precipitation–runoff (P–R) relationships before and during the MD across 106 basins with varying snow-/rainfall regimes and identified those catchments where drought propagation was intensified. Our results show that catchments' hydrological memory – modulated by snow and groundwater – is a key control of drought propagation. Snow-dominated catchments (30–35∘ S) feature larger groundwater contribution to streamflow than pluvial basins, which we relate to the infiltration of snowmelt over the Western Andean Front. This leads to longer memory in these basins, represented by a significative correlation between autumn streamflow (when snow has already melted) and the precipitation from the preceding year. Hence, under persistent drought conditions, snow-dominated catchments accumulate the effects of precipitation deficits and progressively generate less water, compared with their historical behaviour, notably affecting central Chile, a region with limited water supply and which concentrates most of the country's population and water demands. Finally, we addressed a general question: what is worse – an extreme single-year drought or a persistent moderate drought? In snow-dominated basins, where water provision strongly depends on both the current and previous precipitation seasons, an extreme drought induces larger absolute streamflow deficits; however persistent deficits induce a more intensified propagation of the meteorological drought. Hence, the worst scenario would be an extreme meteorological drought following consecutive years of precipitation below average, as occurred in 2019. In pluvial basins of southern Chile (35–41∘ S), hydrologic memory is still an important factor, but water supply is more strongly dependant on the meteorological conditions of the current year, and therefore an extreme drought would have a higher impact on water supply than a persistent but moderate drought.

Changing Low Flow and Streamflow Drought Seasonality in Central European Headwaters

In the context of the ongoing climate warming in Europe, the seasonality and magnitudes of low flows and streamflow droughts are expected to change in the future. Increasing temperature and evaporation rates, stagnating precipitation amounts and decreasing snow cover will probably further intensify the summer streamflow deficits. This study analyzed the long-term variability and seasonality of low flows and streamflow droughts in fifteen headwater catchments of three regions within Central Europe. To quantify the changes in the low flow regime of selected catchments during the 1968–2019 period, we applied the R package lfstat for computing the seasonality ratio (SR), the seasonality index (SI), mean annual minima, as well as for the detection of streamflow drought events along with deficit volumes. Trend analysis of summer minimum discharges was performed using the Mann–Kendall test. Our results showed a substantial increase in the proportion of summer low flows during the analyzed period, accompanied with an apparent shift in the average date of low flow occurrence towards the start of the year. The most pronounced seasonality shifts were found predominantly in catchments with the mean altitude 800–1000 m.a.s.l. in all study regions. In contrast, the regime of low flows in catchments with terrain above 1000 m.a.s.l. remained nearly stable throughout the 1968–2019 period. Moreover, the analysis of mean summer minimum discharges indicated a much-diversified pattern in behavior of long-term trends than it might have been expected. The findings of this study may help identify the potentially most vulnerable near-natural headwater catchments facing worsening summer water scarcity.

Stress testing as complement to climate scenarios: recharge scenarios to quantify streamflow drought sensitivity

Abstract. Precipitation deficits and temperature anomalies are often the main cause for low flows and summer streamflow droughts. However, where groundwater is the main contribution to sustain water availability and ecological integrity during dry spells, the role of recharge and catchment storage is crucial to understand streamflow drought sensitivity. Here we introduce recharge stress tests as complement to climate scenarios to characterize and quantify the streamflow drought sensitivities of catchments. The stress tests are presented by applying them to six headwater catchments in Switzerland with various catchment and streamflow characteristics. The stress tests drive the bucket-type hydrological model HBV in a framework, in which pre-drought recharge conditions can be decreased to test how catchments respond to and recover from drought. We identified an upper limit of stress test durations around 12 months as indicator of maximum recharge- and storage-memory for the study catchments. Varying response on stress testing across the catchments suggests different storage properties and thus different recovery times from drought. From the stress test simulations, we found up to 200 d longer summer streamflow droughts with additional streamflow deficits which account for up to 40 d of median flow. Using a worst-case pre-drought recharge in stress test simulation leads to minimum flow reductions of 50 %–80 % compared with the reference simulation. Based on the results we conclude with recommendations for further stress test research in drought hydrology.

Identifying drought propagation by simultaneously considering linear and nonlinear dependence in the Wei River basin of the Loess Plateau, China

Meteorological drought propagating to hydrological drought usually occurs with a noticeable time delay due to the catchment buffering effect. Knowledge gain in the delayed hydrological response is indispensable for developing timely drought monitoring systems. In this study, a two-stage statistical framework is proposed for identifying the response time of hydrological droughts to meteorological droughts at a weekly resolution. Candidate response time is initially selected by exclusively evaluating linear or nonlinear correlations between precipitation and streamflow anomalies. In the second stage, the optimal response time is determined, at which the greatest number of streamflow deficits can be monitored by concurrent precipitation deficits. A case study is conducted for the Wei River basin of the Loess Plateau, China to investigate the spatio-temporal variability in drought response time under a changing environment. Results indicate that hydrological droughts respond to meteorological droughts with time lags of 25–39 weeks, exhibiting noticeable spatial variability. The long-time hydrological response is expected where there are sufficient vegetation and loess deposits. Drought response time identification for each calendar month reveals the long-term and short-term hydrological response in winter and summer, respectively. A time-varying baseflow index is found to be positively related to the drought response time, therefore having control on its marked seasonality. In a changing environment, summer hydrological droughts tend to respond to precipitation variability at longer time scales, while decreasing response time is noticed in winter. A preliminary attribution analysis highlights that changes in meteorological drought severity and catchment water storage in combination exert control on the temporal variability in drought response time over the past half-century. Findings of the study may favor hydrological drought monitoring dependent on precipitation deficit information available at large spatial extent.

Contrasting Influences of Human Activities on Hydrological Drought Regimes Over China Based on High‐Resolution Simulations

AbstractHow human activities have altered hydrological droughts (streamflow deficits) in China during the past five decades (1961–2016) is investigated using the latest version (v2.0) of PCR‐GLOBWB model at high spatial resolution (~10 km). Although both human activities and climate variability have significant effects on river flows over China, there are large regional north‐south contrasts. Over northern China, human activities generally intensify hydrological droughts. We find that human activities exacerbated drought deficit by about 70–200% from 2004 to 2015. In contrast, droughts over southern China are generally alleviated by human activities. For instance, irrigation and water management (such as reservoir operation and water abstraction) increase drought StDef (standardized drought deficit volume) by about 80% in the Yellow River (north) but reduce it by about 20% in the Yangtze River (south). Human activities slightly reduce drought deficit in the Yangtze River due to the combination of large reservoir storage and low ratio of agriculture consumption to abstracted irrigation water. In contrast, hydrological drought is aggravated in the semiarid Yellow River basin because of high water consumption from agricultural sectors. This study suggests that human activities have contrasting influences on hydrological drought characteristics in the northern (intensification) and southern (mitigation) parts of China. Therefore, it is critical to consider the variable roles of human activities on hydrological drought in China when developing mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Long-term effects of forest harvesting on summer low flow deficits in the Coast Range of Oregon

We examined long-term changes in daily streamflow associated with forestry practices over a 60-year period (1959–2017) in the Alsea Watershed Study, Oregon Coast Range, Pacific Northwest, USA. We quantified the response of daily streamflow to (1) harvest of mature/old forest in 1966, (2) 43- to 53-yr and 48- to 58-yr-old industrial plantation forests in 2006–2009, and (3) logging of the plantations using contemporary forest practices, including retention of a riparian buffer, in 2010 and 2014. Daily streamflow from a 40- to 53-yr-old Douglas-fir plantation was 25% lower on average, and 50% lower during the summer (June 15 to Sept 15 of 2006 to 2009), relative to the reference watershed containing mature/old forest. Low flow deficits persisted over six or more months of each year. Surprisingly, contemporary forest practices (i.e., clearcutting of the plantation with riparian buffers in 2009 and 2014) had only a minor effect on streamflow deficits. Two years after logging in 2014, summer streamflow deficits were similar to those observed prior to harvest (under 40- to 53-yr-old plantations). High evapotranspiration from rapidly regenerating vegetation, including planted Douglas-fir, and from the residual plantation forest in the riparian buffer appeared to explain the persistence of streamflow deficits after logging of nearly 100% of the forest plantation. Results of this study indicated that 40- to 50-yr rotations of Douglas-fir plantations can produce persistent, large summer low flow deficits. While the clearcutting of these plantations, with retention of riparian buffers, increased daily streamflow slightly, flows did not return to pre-first entry conditions. Further work is needed to examine how intensively managed plantation forests along with expected warmer, drier conditions in the future may influence summer low streamflow and aquatic ecosystems.

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the 2010–2015 Extreme Hydrological Drought across the Central Andes, Argentina

During the period 2010–2015, the semi-arid Central Andes in Argentina (CAA) experienced one of the most severe and long-lasting hydrological droughts on record. Since the snowmelt is the most important source of water, the reduced snowfall over the mountains propagated the drought signal through the streamflows in the adjacent foothills east of the Andes ranges. Motivated by the widespread impacts on the socio-economic activities in the region, this study aims to characterize the recent hydrological drought in terms of streamflow deficits. Based on streamflow data from 20 basins, we used the standardized streamflow index (SSI) to characterize hydrological droughts during the period 1971–2016. We found that the regional extent of the 2010–2015 hydrological drought was limited to the basins located north of 38° S, with mean duration of 67 months and maximum drought severity exhibiting a heterogeneous pattern in terms of spatial distribution and time of occurrence. The drought event reached extreme conditions in 14 of the 15 basins in the CAA, being record-breaking drought in six of the basins. This condition was likely driven by a cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean resembling La Niña conditions, which generated a decrease in snowfall over the Andes due to suppressed frontal activity.

Impact of Lake Gopło on low-flow regime of the upper Noteć river

AbstractThe main aim of this study is to make an assessment of the impact of Lake Gopło on a river low-flow regime. Two water gauges were selected, located in an upstream and downstream position to the lake on the River Noteć. On the basis of the daily discharge series from the period 1965–1990, a group of low-flow regime estimators was computed. Analyses involved various aspects of minimum flows and drought streamflow deficits. Comparison of the data between both gauging stations showed the extent of the influence of water management on Lake Gopło on low-flow regime transformation in the River Noteć.

Summer streamflow deficits from regenerating Douglas‐fir forest in the Pacific Northwest, USA

AbstractDespite controversy about effects of plantation forestry on streamflow, streamflow response to forest plantations over multiple decades is not well understood. Analysis of 60‐year records of daily streamflow from eight paired‐basin experiments in the Pacific Northwest of the United States (Oregon) revealed that the conversion of old‐growth forest to Douglas‐fir plantations had a major effect on summer streamflow. Average daily streamflow in summer (July through September) in basins with 34‐ to 43‐year‐old plantations of Douglas‐fir was 50% lower than streamflow from reference basins with 150‐ to 500‐year‐old forests dominated by Douglas‐fir, western hemlock, and other conifers. Study plantations are comparable in terms of age class, treatments, and growth rates to managed forests in the region. Young Douglas‐fir trees, which have higher sapwood area, higher sapflow per unit of sapwood area, higher concentration of leaf area in the upper canopy, and less ability to limit transpiration, appear to have higher rates of evapotranspiration than old trees of conifer species, especially during dry summers. Reduced summer streamflow in headwater basins with forest plantations may limit aquatic habitat and exacerbate stream warming, and it may also alter water yield and timing in much larger basins. Legacies of past forest management or extensive natural disturbances may be confounded with effects of climate change on streamflow in large river basins. Continued research is needed using long‐term paired‐basin studies and process studies to determine the effects of forest management on streamflow deficits in a variety of forest types and forest management systems.

Can a paleodrought record be used to reconstruct streamflow?: A case study for the Missouri River Basin

AbstractRecent advances in paleoclimatology have revealed dramatic long‐term hydroclimatic variations that provide a context for limited historical records. A notable data set derived from a relatively dense network of paleoclimate proxy records in North America is the Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA): a gridded tree‐ring‐based reconstruction of summer Palmer Drought Severity Index. This index has been used to assess North American drought frequency, persistence, and spatial extent over the past two millennia. Here, we explore whether the LBDA can be used to reconstruct annual streamflow. Relative to streamflow reconstructions that use tree rings within the river basin of interest, the use of a gridded proxy poses a novel challenge. The gridded series have high spatial correlation, since they rely on tree rings over a common radius of influence. A novel algorithm for reconstructing streamflow using regularized canonical regression and inputs of local and global covariates is developed and applied over the Missouri River Basin, as a test case. Effectiveness in reconstruction is demonstrated with reconstructions showing periods where streamflow deficits may have been more severe than during recent droughts (e.g., the Civil War, Dust Bowl, and 1950s droughts). The maximum persistence of droughts and floods over the past 500 years far exceeds those observed in the instrumental record and periods of multidecadal variability in the 1500s and 1600s are detected. Challenges for an extension to a national streamflow reconstruction or applications using other gridded paleoclimate data sets such as adequate spatial coverage of streamflow and applicability of annual reconstructions are discussed.

Comparison of daily percentiles of streamflow and rainfall to investigate stream–aquifer connectivity

Summary A frequency analysis approach was used to investigate the hydraulic connectivity between streams and aquifers, by comparing daily percentiles of streamflow and rainfall. Three Australian streams were examined – a dominantly gaining stream (Wilsons River, NSW), a dominantly gaining stream modified by significant water extraction (Ovens River, Victoria) and a dominantly losing stream (Mooki River, NSW). For the gaining stream examples, a lag is observed between the seasonal peak in the low-flow percentile curves and the seasonal peak in the daily rainfall percentile curve. Cross-correlation was used to calculate the time-shift that provides the best fit between the streamflow and rainfall percentile curves. There is a good correlation ( r 2 > 0.8) between the reference rainfall percentile curve and the shifted streamflow percentile curves for gaining streams. The lags evident between the rainfall and streamflow percentile curves represent the processes of first replenishing catchment storages (such as soil moisture and groundwater) and subsequent release to the stream. This is largely a function of catchment hydrogeology as well as climate, notably the magnitude and regularity of rainfall events. Catchment size is not a controlling factor. Analysis of these lags provides insights into the dynamics of groundwater recharge, storage and release. Changes in the lag times over the flow percentiles can reflect changes in the dominant catchment storage contributing to streamflow. For the Wilsons River, the contribution from a groundwater system with longer flow paths increases at lower flow percentiles. This can be critical when protecting minimum streamflows, as near-stream groundwater flow may not be the only determining factor. The impact of water extraction can be recognised in this analysis. For the Ovens River, streamflow deficits relative to the rainfall percentile curve correspond to the summer period of high irrigation demand. Such a deficit was also observed for the Wilsons River when only post-development monitoring was used in the analysis. For the losing stream example of the Mooki River, the relationship between the streamflow and rainfall percentile curves was poor due to the significant number of no-flow days and much greater variability in the gauging record. This is because the recharge component of rainfall is not returned as streamflow over the year and a portion of streamflow can become aquifer leakage. Hence, the calculated lags derived from this analysis have no hydrological significance for losing streams.